Арзуманян Р., Сложное мышление и сеть парадигма нелинейности и среда безопасности 21 века

ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȊȚȖȘȖȍ, ȉȖȓȍȍ ȠȐȘȖȒȖȍ Ȑ ȉȓȐȏȒȖȍ Ȓ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȦ ȋȘȈȕȌ-șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ: «ǰșȒțșȕȈȧ ȜȖȘȔțȓȐȘȖȊȒȈ, ȒȖȖȘȌȐȕȈȞȐȧ Ȑ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȍ Ȟȍȓȍȑ (ȏȈȌȈȟ), șȗȖșȖȉȖȊ (ȗțȚȍȑ, ȔȍȚȖȌȖȊ), ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ Ȑ șȘȍȌșȚȊ (ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȊȈȦȡȐȝ ȘȍșțȘșȖȊ) Ȍȓȧ țȒȘȍȗȓȍȕȐȧ Ȑ ȏȈȡȐȚȣ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȐȕȚȍȘȍșȖȊ»1. ǨȊȚȖȘȣ «ǸțȒȖȊȖȌșȚȊȈ ȗȖ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ Ȑ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȐ» ȌȈȦȚ șȖȉșȚȊȍȕȕȖȍ ȊȐȌȍȕȐȍ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ: «…șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȍȚ șȖȉȖȑ ȗȘȖȞȍșș ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȣ. ȅȚȖ ȖȉȡȐȑ Ȑ ȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȑ șȗȖșȖȉ (ȗțȚȤ, ȔȍȚȖȌ) ȗȖȌȝȖȌȈ Ȓ ȒȈȒȖȑ-ȓȐȉȖ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȍ, – ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ, ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ, ȓȐȟȕȖȑ, ȒȖȔȔȍȘȟȍșȒȖȑ ȐȓȐ ȓȦȉȖȑ ȌȘțȋȖȑ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȖȑ ȒȈȚȍȋȖȘȐȐ. ǹȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ȏȈȌȈȍȚ ȚȘȐ ȉȈȏȐșȕȣȝ ȊȖȗȘȖșȈ: ȟȚȖ ȐȔȍȕȕȖ ȧ ȝȖȟț șȌȍȓȈȚȤ; ȟȚȖ ț Ȕȍȕȧ ȍșȚȤ Ȑ ȟȚȖ ȧ ȔȖȋț ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȚȤ, ȟȚȖȉȣ șȌȍȓȈȚȤ ȚȖ, ȟȚȖ ȧ ȝȖȟț; ȒȈȒȖȊ ȕȈȐȓțȟȠȐȑ șȗȖșȖȉ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȚȖȋȖ, ȟȚȖ ȧ ȐȔȍȦ, ȟȚȖȉȣ șȌȍȓȈȚȤ ȚȖ, ȟȚȖ ȧ ȝȖȟț»2. ǬȈȕȕȖȍ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ ȉȓȐȏȒȐȔ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȦ ǪȖȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȒȖȓȓȍȌȎȈ ǨȘȔȐȐ ǹȀǨ, ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȦȡȍȔț șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȦ ȒȈȒ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȧ ȔȍȎȌț ȞȍȓȧȔȐ, șȗȖșȖȉȈȔȐ (ȗțȚȧȔȐ) Ȑ șȘȍȌșȚȊȈȔȐ.

ǹȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ȒȈȒ ȗȘȖȞȍșș. ǨȕȈȓȐȏ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȣ «ȞȍȓȐ-șȗȖșȖȉȣ-șȘȍȌșȚȊȈ». ǪȖ ȊȊȍȌȍȕȐȐ Ȓ șȉȖȘȕȐȒț ȘȈȉȖȚ «ǹȚȈȕȖȊȓȍȕȐȍ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ: ȗȘȈȊȐȚȍȓȐ, ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȈ Ȑ ȊȖȑȕȈ» (Making of Strategy: Rulers, States, and War) ȈȊȚȖȘȣ ȖȗȐșȣȊȈȍȚ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȦ ȒȈȒ ȗȘȖȞȍșș «…ȗȖșȚȖȧȕȕȖȑ ȈȌȈȗȚȈȞȐȐ Ȓ ȔȍȕȧȦȡȐȔșȧ țșȓȖȊȐȧȔ Ȑ ȖȉșȚȈȕȖȊȒȍ Ȋ ȔȐȘȍ, Ȋ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȔ ȌȖȔȐȕȐȘțȦȚ șȓțȟȈȑ, ȕȍȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȖșȚȤ Ȑ ȌȊțșȔȣșȓȍȕȕȖșȚȤ»3. ǷȖȌȝȖȌ Ȓ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ ȒȈȒ Ȓ ȗȘȖȞȍșșț, ȗțȚȐ, ȔȍȚȖȌț ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȧ «ȊȏȈȐȔȖȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȑ ȔȍȎȌț ȞȍȓȧȔȐ Ȑ șȘȍȌșȚȊȈȔȐ» ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȕȍ ȕȖȊȣȔ, Ȑ ȍȋȖ ȗȘȐȌȍȘȎȐȊȈȓȐșȤ, ȕȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ, ǮȖȔȐȕȐ Ȑ ǫȈȘȚ. ǷȖȌȖȉȕȖȍ ȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȍ Ȓ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ ȉȓȐȏȒȖ ȒȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȐȔ ȕȈ ǺǪǬ, ȘȈȏȘȈȉȈȚȣȊȈȦȡȐȔ ȗȓȈȕȣ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȑ Ȑ ȘȍȠȈȦȡȐȔ ȏȈȌȈȟț ȖȗȚȐȔȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȘȈșȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȧ ȐȔȍȦȡȐȝșȧ șȘȍȌșȚȊ Ȍȓȧ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ ȗȖșȚȈȊȓȍȕȕȣȝ Ȟȍȓȍȑ. ǷȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȈ «ȞȍȓȐ-șȗȖșȖȉȣ-șȘȍȌșȚȊȈ» (ends-ways-means) ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȍȚ țȑȚȐ ȖȚ șȔȍȠȍȕȐȧ ȌȊțȝ ȗȖȕȧȚȐȑ – ȕȈțȟȕȖȋȖ ȗȘȖȌțȒȚȈ Ȑ ȕȈțȟȕȖȋȖ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȈ. ǷȖȗȣȚȒȐ ȊȏȋȓȧȕțȚȤ ȕȈ ȒȓȈșșȐȟȍșȒțȦ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȦ ȒȈȒ ȕȈ ȕȍȟȚȖ ȈȕȈȓȖȋȐȟȕȖȍ ȍșȚȍșȚȊȍȕȕȣȔ ȕȈțȒȈȔ, ȕȈȑȚȐ ȗȘȐȕȞȐȗȣ Ȑ ȟȍȚȒȐȍ ȕȈțȟȕȣȍ ȏȈȒȖȕȣ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ ȊșȍȋȌȈ ȖȒȈȕȟȐȊȈȓȐșȤ ȕȍțȌȈȟȍȑ. ǷȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȈ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȍȚ ȌȖșȚȐȟȤ ȖȉȡȍȋȖ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȧ ȚȖȋȖ, ȟȚȖ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȗȖ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ ȕȍ ȔȖȋțȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȖȜȖȘȔȓȍȕȣ Ȋ ȊȐȌȍ ȕȈțȟȕȖȋȖ ȗȘȖȌțȒȚȈ. ǰ Ȋ ȚȖ Ȏȍ ȊȘȍȔȧ ȖȕȈ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȊȈȍȚ ȜȘȍȑȔ Ȑ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȤ șȐșȚȍȔȕȖȋȖ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȈ Ȓ ȜȈȒȚȈȔ Ȑ șȖȉȣȚȐȧȔ, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȧȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȚȤ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȦ ȒȈȒ ȕȈțȟȕȣȑȗȘȖȞȍșș4.

1 Chilcoat, Richard A. “Strategic Art: The New Discipline for 21st Century Strategists,” in U.S. Army War College Guide to Strategy, Joseph R. Cerami and James F. Holcomb, Jr., eds., Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, 2001, p. 205. 12 January 2011. http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=362.

2 Bartholomees, A Survey of the Theory of Strategy, p. 15.

3 Murray, Williamson and Mark Grimsley. “Introduction: On Strategy,” in Williamson Murray, MacGregor Knox, and Alvin Bernstein (eds.). The Making of Strategy: Rulers, States, and War. New York: Cambridge University Press, 1994, pp. 80-81. 4 Jablonsky, Why Is Strategy Difficult, p. 115.

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ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ǨȌȔȐȘȈȓ ǬȎȖȏȍȜ ǻȈȑȓȐ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚ: «ȇ ȕȍ țȚȊȍȘȎȌȈȦ, ȟȚȖ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȐȓȐ ȔȖȎȍȚ șȚȈȚȤ “ȕȈțȒȖȑ” Ȋ șȔȣșȓȍ ȍșȚȍșȚȊȍȕȕȣȝ ȕȈțȒ. ǶȕȈ ȔȖȎȍȚ Ȑ ȌȖȓȎȕȈ ȉȣȚȤ ȐȕȚȍȓȓȍȒȚțȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȌȐșȞȐȗȓȐȕȖȑ ȊȣșȠȍȋȖ ȗȖȘȧȌȒȈ, Ȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐșȚ ȌȖȓȎȍȕ ȋȖȚȖȊȐȚȤ șȍȉȧ ȖȉȘȈȡȈȚȤșȧ ș ȐȌȍȧȔȐ ș ȚȖȟȕȖșȚȤȦ, ȧșȕȖșȚȤȦ Ȑ ȚȊȖȘȟȍșȒȖȑ ȜȈȕȚȈȏȐȍȑ. ǷȖȥȚȖȔț, ȝȖȚȧ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ șȈȔȈ ȗȖ șȍȉȍ Ȑ ȕȍ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȕȈțȒȖȑ, șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȍ șțȎȌȍȕȐȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȕȈțȟȕȣȔ Ȋ șȐȓț ȚȖȋȖ, ȟȚȖ ȖȕȖ țȗȖȘȧȌȖȟȍȕȕȖ, ȘȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖ, ȖȉȢȍȒȚȐȊȕȖ, ȊșȍȖȝȊȈȚȣȊȈȦȡȍ, ȐȏȉȐȘȈȚȍȓȤȕȖ Ȑ ȗȘȖȕȐȞȈȚȍȓȤȕȖ»1.

ǶșȖȏȕȈȕȐȍ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȐȑ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȣ «ȞȍȓȐ-șȗȖșȖȉȣ-șȘȍȌșȚȊȈ», ȏȈȔȣȒȈȧ ȒȘțȋ, ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚ Ȓ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȦ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ ȒȈȒ ȐșȒțșșȚȊȈ ȕȈȝȖȎȌȍȕȐȧ ȖȗȚȐȔȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ șȖȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȧ ȔȍȎȌț ȞȍȓȧȔȐ, șȗȖșȖȉȈȔȐ Ȑ șȘȍȌșȚȊȈȔȐ. ǶȟȍȊȐȌȕȖ, ȟȚȖ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ȕȍ ȊșȍȋȌȈ ȖșȚȈȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ ȌȈȕȕȖȋȖ ȜȘȍȑȔȈ, ȧȊȓȧȧșȤ, șȖȋȓȈșȕȖ ǷȖȓȍȊȖȔț țșȚȈȊț ȕȍȔȍȞȒȐȝ șțȝȖȗțȚȕȣȝ ȊȖȑșȒ 1936 ȋȖȌȈ (German Army Regulations Truppenfuhrung 1936), «șȊȖȉȖȌȕȖȑ ȒȘȍȈȚȐȊȕȖȑ ȈȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȤȦ, ȖȗȐȘȈȦȡȍȑșȧ ȕȈ ȕȈțȟȕȣȍ ȖșȕȖȊȣ»2.

DzȈȒȈȧ Ȑȏ ȘȈșșȔȖȚȘȍȕȕȣȝ ȊȣȠȍ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȚȍȖȘȐȑ Ȑ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȑ ȔȖȎȍȚ șȟȐȚȈȚȤșȧ ȕȈȐȓțȟȠȍȑ? ǶȚȊȍȚ ȖȟȍȊȐȌȍȕ: ȕȐ ȖȌȕȈ Ȑȏ ȕȐȝ. ǹȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ȕȍ ȗȘȐȏȕȈȍȚ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȤ șțȡȍșȚȊȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȕȈȐȓțȟȠȍȋȖ Ȑ țȕȐȊȍȘșȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ ȐȓȐ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ. DzȈȎȌȈȧ Ȑȏ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȚȍȖȘȐȑ, ȉțȌțȟȐ ȕȈȐȉȖȓȍȍ ȖȗȚȐȔȈȓȤȕȖȑ Ȋ Țȍȝ ȓȐ Ȑȕȣȝ șȗȍȞȐȜȐȟȍșȒȐȝ țșȓȖȊȐȧȝ, ȖșȚȈȍȚșȧ ȒȖȕȚȍȒșȚȕȖ-ȏȈȊȐșȐȔȖȑ Ȑ ȕȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȗȘȍȚȍȕȌȖȊȈȚȤ ȕȈ ȘȖȓȤ țȕȐȊȍȘșȈȓȤȕȖȑ Ȗȉȡȍȑ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ. ǭȍ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȕȍȓȤȏȧ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȚȤ Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ șȍȘȍȉȘȧȕȖȑ ȗțȓȐ Ȑ ȔȈȋȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȜȖȘȔțȓȣ, ȖȌȕȖȏȕȈȟȕȖ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȡȍȑ ȌȖșȚȐȟȤ ȗȖȉȍȌȣ3. ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐșȚ ȌȖȓȎȍȕ ȉȣȚȤ ȏȕȈȒȖȔ șȖ ȊșȍȔȐ șțȡȍșȚȊțȦȡȐȔȐ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȧȔȐ Ȑ ȖȚȕȖșȐȚȤșȧ Ȓ ȕȐȔ, ȒȈȒ Ȓ șȊȖȍȔț ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚȈȘȐȦ. ȅȚȖ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȐȚ ȍȔț ȊȣȉȐȘȈȚȤ ȖȗȚȐȔȈȓȤȕțȦ Ȍȓȧ șȓȖȎȐȊȠȍȑșȧ ȖȉșȚȈȕȖȊȒȐ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȦ ȐȓȐ ȜȖȘȔȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȒȖȔȉȐȕȈȞȐȦ Ȑȏ ȕȍșȒȖȓȤȒȐȝ ȚȍȖȘȐȑ Ȑ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȖȊ, țȝȖȌȧ ȖȚ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȐȑ șȚȈȘȖȋȖ ȈȜȖȘȐȏȔȈ: «ȍșȓȐ ț ȊȈș ȗȖȌ ȘțȒȖȑ ȐȔȍȍȚșȧ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȔȖȓȖȚȖȒ, ȚȖȊșȍ ȊȈȠȐ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȣ ȊȣȋȓȧȌȧȚȋȊȖȏȌȧȔȐ»4.

ǸȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȍȔȣȍ Ȋ ȌȈȕȕȖȑ ȘȈȉȖȚȍ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ Ȑ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȐ ȖȘȐȍȕȚȐȘȖȊȈȕȣ ȉȖȓȤȠȍ ȕȈ șȜȍȘț ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȍ ȊȘȍȔȧ, ȕȍȎȍȓȐ ȋȘȈȕȌ-șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȦ Ȑ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȈȚȐȒț ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȐ. ǰ ȌȈȎȍ Ȋ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȈ ȖȕȐ ȜȖȒțșȐȘțȦȚșȧ șȒȖȘȍȍ ȕȈ ȔȕȖȋȖȔȍȘȕȖȔ ȈȕȈȓȐȏȍ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȣ Ȑ ȗȖȐșȒȍ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȑ, ȕȍȎȍȓȐ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚȈȓȤȕȖȔ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȍ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȣ «ȞȍȓȐ-ȗțȚȐ-șȘȍȌșȚȊȈ». ǺȍșȚȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȗȖȚȍȕȞȐȈȓȤȕȖȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȗȘȖȊȍȌȍȕȖ ȗȖ ȒȘȐȚȍȘȐȧȔ ȗȘȐȋȖȌ-

ȕȖșȚȐ, ȗȘȐȍȔȓȍȔȖșȚȐ Ȑ ȖșțȡȍșȚȊȐȔȖșȚȐ (suitability, acceptability, and feasibility),

1 Wylie, Military Strategy, p. 10.

2 Creveld, Martin van. “Eternal Clausewitz,” in Michael L. Handel (ed.). Clausewitz and Modern Strategy. London: Frank Cass, 1986, p. 41.

3 Gray, Transformation and Strategy Surprise, p. 13.

4 Bartholomees, A Survey of the Theory of Strategy, p. 38.

192

ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȡȐȔ ȖȞȍȕȐȚȤ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȣ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȣ «ȞȍȓȐ-șȗȖșȖȉȣ-șȘȍȌșȚȊȈ». DzȘȐȚȍȘȐȑ ȗȘȐȋȖȌȕȖșȚȐ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȍȚ ȖȞȍȕȐȚȤ, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȍȚ ȓȐ ȊȣȉȘȈȕȕȈȧ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ȌȖșȚȐȟȤ ȎȍȓȈȍȔȣȝ Ȟȍȓȍȑ? ǷȘȐȍȔȓȍȔȖșȚȤ ȖȞȍȕȐȊȈȍȚ șȗȖșȖȉȣ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ Ȟȍȓȍȑ: ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȚ ȓȐ ȗȘȍȌȓȈȋȈȍȔȣȍ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȌȖșȚȐȟȤ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȈ ȉȍȏ ȟȘȍȏȔȍȘȕȖȑ ȚȘȈȚȣ ȘȍșțȘșȖȊ Ȑ Ȋ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ ȐȔȍȦȡȐȝșȧ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȍȑ? ǶșțȡȍșȚȊȐȔȖșȚȤ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȍȚ șȘȍȌșȚȊȈ: ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȚ ȓȐ ȐȔȍȦȡȐȍșȧ șȘȍȌșȚȊȈ, ȔȍȚȖȌȣ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ Ȑ ȗȘ. ȘȍȈȓȐȏȖȊȈȚȤ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȦ? ǷȘȍȌȓȈȋȈȍȔȣȍ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȐ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ ȗȖȓȖȎȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ ȖȚȊȍȚȐȚȤ ȕȈ Ȋșȍ ȚȘȐ ȊȖȗȘȖșȈ, ȜȖȘȔȐȘțȧ ȚȍȔ șȈȔȣȔ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȖȍ ȔȕȖȎȍșȚȊȖ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȖȊ Ȑ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣȝ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȑ. ǰșȒțșșȚȊȖ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ ȏȈȒȓȦȟȈȍȚșȧ Ȋ țȔȍȕȐȐ ȊȣȉȘȈȚȤ Ȑȏ ȌȈȕȕȖȋȖ ȔȕȖȎȍșȚȊȈ ȕȈȐȉȖȓȍȍ ȖȗȚȐȔȈȓȤȕȖȍ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȍ1. ǷȘȐ ȖȞȍȕȒȍ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȐȔȖșȚȐ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ ȊȈȎȕțȦ ȘȖȓȤ ȗȘȐȖȉȘȍȚȈȦȚ ȍȍ ȔȖȘȈȓȤȕȣȑ Ȑ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȑ ȈșȗȍȒȚȣ. Ǭȓȧ ȚȖȑ ȐȓȐ ȐȕȖȑ ȒțȓȤȚțȘȣ, ȕȈȞȐȐ Ȑ ȌȈȎȍ ȓȐȟȕȖșȚȐ ȔȖȘȈȓȤȕȣȑ ȈșȗȍȒȚ Ȑ ȓȍȋȐȚȐȔȕȖșȚȤ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȊȈȘȤȐȘȖȊȈȚȤșȧ Ȋ ȠȐȘȖȒȐȝ ȗȘȍȌȍȓȈȝ. DzȖȓȐȕ ǫȘȍȑ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚ Ȗ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȖȔ ȐȏȔȍȘȍȕȐȐ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ: «ǹȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȈȚȣȊȈȍȚșȧ Ȑ ȐșȗȖȓȕȧȍȚșȧ ȐȕșȚȐȚțȚȈȔȐ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȣȝ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊ șȗȖșȖȉȈȔȐ, ȖȚȘȈȎȈȦȡȐȔȐ ȒțȓȤȚțȘȕȣȍ ȗȘȍȜȍȘȍȕȞȐȐ»2. ǹȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȌȖȓȎȕȈ țȌȖȊȓȍȚȊȖȘȧȚȤ ȕȖȘȔȈȔ, ȗȘȐȕȧȚȣȔ Ȋ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ șȘȍȌȍ, ȗȘȈȊȐȚȍȓȤșȚȊȍȕȕȣȝ ȒȘțȋȈȝ Ȑ ȕȈȘȖȌȍ Ȋ ȞȍȓȖȔ.

ǬȐȓȍȔȔȣ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ. ǬȖȓȎȕȈ ȓȐ ȔȍȕȧȚȤșȧ ȊȖȍȕȕȈȧ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ș ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȍȔ ȜȖȘȔȣ ȊȖȑȕȣ? ǭșȓȐ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȜțȕȒȞȐȍȑ ȞȍȓȐ, ȚȖ ș ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȍȔ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȞȍȓȐ ȖȕȈ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȌȖȓȎȕȈ ȐȏȔȍȕȧȚȤșȧ. ǶȌȕȈȒȖ ȍșȚȤ Ȑ ȈȓȤȚȍȘȕȈȚȐȊȕȈȧ ȚȖȟȒȈ ȏȘȍȕȐȧ, ȐșȝȖȌȧȡȈȧ Ȑȏ ȚȖȋȖ, ȟȚȖ țȕȐȟȚȖȎȍȕȐȍ ȈȘȔȐȐ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȕȈȐȓțȟȠȍȑ (Ȉ Ȍȓȧ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȚȍȖȘȍȚȐȒȖȊ ȍȌȐȕșȚȊȍȕȕȖȑ) ȞȍȓȤȦ ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ, Ȋȕȍ ȏȈȊȐșȐȔȖșȚȐ ȖȚ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ Ȟȍȓȍȑ. ǬȈȕȕȈȧ ȌȐȓȍȔȔȈ ȖȚȘȈȎȈȍȚ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔț, ȒȖȚȖȘțȦ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ Ȋ șȊȖȍ ȊȘȍȔȧ ȕȈȏȊȈȓ ȊȣșȠȐȔ șțȎȌȍȕȐȍȔ Ȗ ȊȖȑȕȍ Ȑ ȍȍ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȍ. «ǷȍȘȊȣȑ, șȈȔȣȑ ȊȍȓȐȒȐȑ, șȈȔȣȑ ȘȍȠȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȑ ȈȒȚ șțȎȌȍȕȐȧ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ ȊȣȗȈȌȈȍȚ ȕȈ ȌȖȓȦ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȌȍȧȚȍȓȧ Ȑ ȗȖȓȒȖȊȖȌȞȈ, ȏȈȒȓȦȟȈȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȚȖȔ, ȟȚȖ Ȗȕ ȌȖȓȎȍȕ ȗȘȈȊȐȓȤȕȖ ȖȗȖȏȕȈȚȤ Ȋ țȒȈȏȈȕȕȖȔ ȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȐ ȗȘȍȌȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȍȔțȦ ȊȖȑȕț; Ȗȕ ȕȍ ȌȖȓȎȍȕ ȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȚȤ ȍȍ ȏȈ ȕȍȟȚȖ ȚȈȒȖȍ, ȟȍȔ ȖȕȈ ȗȘȐ ȌȈȕȕȣȝ ȖȉșȚȖȧȚȍȓȤșȚȊȈȝ ȕȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ, Ȑ ȕȍ ȌȖȓȎȍȕ șȚȘȍȔȐȚȤșȧ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȍșȚȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖ ȍȍ ȐȏȔȍȕȐȚȤ. ȅȚȖ Ȑ ȍșȚȤ ȗȍȘȊȣȑ, ȕȈȐȉȖȓȍȍ ȊșȍȖȉȢȍȔȓȦȡȐȑ Ȑȏ Ȋșȍȝ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȊȖȗȘȖșȖȊ…»3.

ǰȕȚȍȘȍșȕȣȔ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȊȖȗȘȖș Ȗ ȊȈȎȕȖșȚȐ ȜȖȘȔțȓȐȘȖȊȒȐ Ȑ ȖȏȊțȟȐȊȈȕȐȧ ȘȍȈȓȐȏțȍȔȖȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ. ǶȟȍȊȐȌȕȖ, ȟȚȖ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȖ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȐȚȤ șȍȉȍ ȕȍ ȐȔȍȚȤ ȟȍȚȒȖ șȜȖȘȔțȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȣȝ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȝ Ȟȍȓȍȑ Ȋ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ șȜȍȘȍ, ȟȚȖ ȗȖȘȖȑ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȊȈȍȚ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȖȍ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȖ Ȍȓȧ ȔȈȕȍȊȘȈ, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȡȍȍ Ȑȏȉȍ-

1 Ibid, pp. 16-17.

2 Gray, Modern Strategy, p. 28.

3 Clausewitz, On War, pp. 88-89.

193

ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȋȈȚȤ ȖȚȒȘȣȚȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ. ǸȍȟȤ Ȋ ȌȈȕȕȖȔ șȓțȟȈȍ ȐȌȍȚ Ȗ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȍ țȒȓȖȕȍȕȐȧ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ ȗȖ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȦ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȖȉȖȘȖȕȐȚȍȓȤȕȖȑ, ȘȍȈȒȚȐȊȕȖȑ Ȑ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ țșȗȍȠȕȖȑ ȕȈ ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ ȒȖȘȖȚȒȖȔ ȖȚȘȍȏȒȍ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ. ǷȖȗȣȚȒȐ ȈȕȈȓȖȋȐȟȕȖȋȖ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȈ Ȋ șȜȍȘȍ ȋȘȈȕȌ-șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ, ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȐ Ȑ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȐȕȚȍȘȍșȖȊ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȟȍȔ șȖȔȕȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȔȐ. ǹȖșȚȖȧȊȠȈȧșȧ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȍȕȕȖșȚȤ ȖșȖȏȕȈȍȚ Ȑ ȖȚșȓȍȎȐȊȈȍȚ șȊȖȐ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȞȍȓȐ, ȖȉȓȈȌȈȍȚ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȍȔ ȗțȚȍȑ Ȑ șȗȖșȖȉȖȊ Ȑȝ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ Ȑ ȏȕȈȕȐȍȔ șȘȍȌșȚȊ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȔȐ ȖȕȈ ȘȈșȗȖȓȈȋȈȍȚ Ȍȓȧ ȥȚȖȋȖ. ǭșȓȐ ȌȈȎȍ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ȕȍ șȜȖȘȔțȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȈ Ȋ ȊȐȌȍ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ ȐȓȐ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȐ, ȚȍȔ ȕȍ Ȕȍȕȍȍ Ȋ ȎȐȏȕȍșȗȖșȖȉȕȖȔ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȍ ȖȕȈ ȊșȍȋȌȈ ȗȘȐșțȚșȚȊțȍȚ Ȑ ȘȍȈȓȐȏțȍȚșȧ. ǷȖȗȣȚȒȐ ȐȋȕȖȘȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȦ șȖ șȚȖȘȖȕȣ ȗȘȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȖȊ ȘȈȏȘțȠȈȦȚ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȧ ȔȍȎȌț ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȖȑ Ȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ șȜȍȘȖȑ, Ȑ «ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȈ ȕȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȗȘȍȌȢȧȊȓȧȚȤ Ȓ ȊȖȑȕȍ ȕȍȊȣȗȖȓȕȐȔȣȝ ȚȘȍȉȖȊȈȕȐȑ; ȥȚȖ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȘȍȟȐȓȖ ȉȣ șȖȊȍȘȠȍȕȕȖ ȍșȚȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖȑ Ȑ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖȑ ȗȘȍȌȗȖșȣȓȒȍ, ȟȚȖ ȖȕȈ ȏȕȈȍȚ ȖȘțȌȐȍ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȔ ȎȍȓȈȍȚ ȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȚȤșȧ»1.

ǻȋȓțȉȓȧȧșȤ Ȋ ȚȍȖȘȐȦ, ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖ ȗȖȔȕȐȚȤ, ȟȚȖ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȗȘȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȌȐșȞȐȗȓȐȕȖȑ. ǹțȡȍșȚȊțȍȚ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȣȑ ȘȈȏȘȣȊ ȔȍȎȌț ȊȖȍȕȕȣȔȐ ȚȍȖȘȍȚȐȒȈȔȐ Ȑ ȌȍȑșȚȊțȦȡȐȔȐ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȔȐ, Ȑ Ȋșȍ ȊȣșȖȚȣ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȔȣșȓȐ ȔȖȋțȚ ȖȒȈȏȈȚȤșȧ ȉȍșȗȖȓȍȏȕȣȔȐ Ȍȓȧ ȒȖȔȈȕȌȐȘȈ, țȟȈșȚȊțȦȡȍȋȖ Ȋ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȖȔ ȉȖȦ. ǹȖȋȓȈșȕȖ ǾȐȞȍȘȖȕț, ǫȈȕȕȐȉȈȓ, ȕȈȝȖȌȧșȤ Ȋ șșȣȓȒȍ Ȋ ȅȜȍșȍ, ȉȣȓ ȗȘȐȋȓȈȠȍȕ ȕȈ ȓȍȒȞȐȦ ȕȍȒȖȍȋȖ ǼȖȘȔȐȖ. ǷȖșȓȍ ȖȒȖȕȟȈȕȐȧ ȍȋȖ ȌȓȐȕȕȣȝ ȘȈșșțȎȌȍȕȐȑ Ȗȉ ȐșȒțșșȚȊȍ ȒȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȍȋȖ ǫȈȕȕȐȉȈȓȈ ȗȖȗȘȖșȐȓȐ ȗȖȌȍȓȐȚȤșȧ ȔȕȍȕȐȍȔ Ȗȉ țșȓȣȠȈȕȕȖȔ, ȕȈ ȟȚȖ Ȗȕ ȖȚȊȍȚȐȓ: «ȇ ȊȐȌȍȓ ȔȕȖȋȖ șȚȈȘȣȝ ȉȖȓȚțȕȖȊ, ȕȖ ȧ ȕȍ ȊȐȌȍȓ ȕȐ ȖȌȕȖȋȖ, ȒȚȖ ȉȖȓȚȈȓ ȉȣ ȉȖȓȤȠȍ, ȟȍȔ ǼȖȘȔȐȖ»2. ǯȈȕȐȔȈȧșȤ ȚȍȖȘȐȍȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ, ȕȐ Ȋ ȒȖȍȔ șȓțȟȈȍ ȕȍȓȤȏȧ ȏȈȉȣȊȈȚȤ șȚȈȘȣȑ ȈȜȖȘȐȏȔ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ, ȟȚȖ «ȕȍȚ ȕȐȟȍȋȖ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖȋȖ Ȍȓȧ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȒȈ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ ȕȍ șȖȉȐȘȈȍȚșȧ ȌȍȓȈȚȤ ȥȚȖȋȖ»3, Ȑ ȒȖȔȗȍȚȍȕȚȕȖșȚȤ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȕȈ ȗȖȓȍ ȉȖȧ ȕȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȒȖȔȗȍȕșȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȋȓțȗȖșȚȤ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȖȊ ȗȘȐ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȐ Ȟȍȓȍȑ Ȑ ȐȔȍȦȡȐȝșȧ șȘȍȌșȚȊ. ǪȖȍȕȕȈȧ ȐșȚȖȘȐȧ ȗȖȓȕȈ ȗȘȐȔȍȘȖȊ ȉȓȍșȚȧȡȍ ȊȣȐȋȘȈȕȕȣȝ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȑ ȕȈ ȉȍȏȕȈȌȍȎȕȖȑ Ȑ ȖȉȘȍȟȍȕȕȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȍ. DzȖȋȌȈ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȑ ȚȍȖȘȍȚȐȒ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚ ȌȍȑșȚȊțȦȡȍȔț ȊȖȍȕȕȖȔț șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐșȚț, ȟȚȖ ȍȋȖ ȏȈȌȈȟȈ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȚȘțȌȕȖ ȊȣȗȖȓȕȐȔȖȑ ȕȈ țȘȖȊȕȍ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ, Ȗȕ ȕȍ ȎȌȍȚ ȗȖȝȊȈȓȣ Ȋ șȊȖȑ ȈȌȘȍș. ǺȍȖȘȍȚȐȒ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȐȚȤ șȍȉȍ ȗȘȐȑȚȐ Ȓ ȏȈȒȓȦȟȍȕȐȦ Ȗ ȕȍȊȣȗȖȓȕȐȔȖșȚȐ ȏȈȌȈȟȐ Ȑ ȊȍȘȕțȚȤșȧ Ȓ ȚȍȖȘȍȚȐȟȍșȒȐȔ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȒȈȔ, Ȋ ȚȖ ȊȘȍȔȧ ȒȈȒ ȗȘȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐșȚ ȌȖȓȎȍȕ ȗȘȐȕȧȚȤ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȍ Ȑ ȗȘȐșȚțȗȐȚȤ Ȓ ȍȋȖ ȘȍȈȓȐȏȈȞȐȐ Ȋȕȍ ȏȈȊȐșȐȔȖșȚȐ ȖȚ ȕȍȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȖșȚȐ ȖȉșȚȈȕȖȊȒȐ, Ȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ȚȈȒ ȐȓȐ ȐȕȈȟȍ ȌȖȓȎȕȈ ȉȣȚȤ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȈȕȈ Ȑ ȘȍȈȓȐȏȖȊȈȕȈ4.

1 Ibid, p. 75.

2 Lazenby, J. F. Hannibal’s War: A History of the Second Punic War. Warminster, UK: Aris and Phillips, 1978, p. 275. 3 Gray, Why Strategy is Difficult, p. 81.

4 Ibid, p. 84.

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ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

2. ǹȓȖȎȕȖșȚȤ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ

ǹȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ȗȘȖȕȐȏȣȊȈȍȚ șȜȍȘț ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȐ Ȑ ȐȔȍȍȚ șȓȐȠȒȖȔ ȔȕȖȋȖ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȖȊ Ȑ ȐȏȔȍȘȍȕȐȑ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ, ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊțȧ ȌȘțȋ ș ȌȘțȋȖȔ, ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖ țșȓȖȎȕȧȦȚ ȖȉȡțȦ ȒȈȘȚȐȕț. ǷȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȖ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ șȓȐȠȒȖȔ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȔ Ȑ ȔȕȖȋȖȔȍȘȕȣȔ, Ȉ ȍȍ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȒȈ – ȗȖȘȖȑ ȊȍșȤȔȈ ȌȈȓȍȒȖȑ ȖȚ ȖȎȐȌȈȍȔȖȑ. ǵȍșȔȖȚȘȧ ȕȈ ȚȖ, ȟȚȖ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȈ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ ȖșȚȈȍȚșȧ ȕȍȐȏȔȍȕȕȖȑ ȕȈ ȗȘȖȚȧȎȍȕȐȐ Ȋșȍȑ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȟȍșȒȖȑ ȐșȚȖȘȐȐ, ȍȍ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘ ȕȍȗȘȍȘȣȊȕȖ ȔȍȕȧȍȚșȧ, ȈȌȈȗȚȐȘțȧșȤ Ȓ ȔȍȕȧȦȡȐȔșȧ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȧȔ, ȖȉȡȍșȚȊț Ȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȔ ȐȌȍȧȔ. ǺȘȐțȔȜ ȕȈ ȊȖȑȕȍ Ȑ Ȋ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ ȕȍ ȊșȍȋȌȈ ȒȖȘȘȍȓȐȘțȍȚ ș ȗȘȍȊȖșȝȖȌșȚȊȖȔ Ȋ ȌȖȔȐȕȐȘțȦȡȐȝ ȐȏȔȍȘȍȕȐȧȝ, Ȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȈȧ ȗȖȉȍȌȈ, șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȑ Ȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȑ țșȗȍȝ ȕȍ ȖȉȧȏȈȚȍȓȤȕȖ șȊȧȏȈȕȣ ș ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȍȔ ȗȘȍȐȔțȡȍșȚȊȈ Ȋ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȐ, ȋȍȖȋȘȈȜȐȐ, șȐȓȤȕȖȔ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȍȕȕȖȔ ȈȗȗȈȘȈȚȍ ȐȓȐ ȓȐȌȍȘȈȝ, ȚȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒ ȊșȍȋȌȈ șȔȖȎȍȚ ȕȈȑȚȐ șȗȖșȖȉȣ ȒȖȔȗȍȕșȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȖȎȐȌȈȍȔȣȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȑ ȥȜȜȍȒȚ. ǬȈȊȕȖ ȏȈȔȍȟȍȕȖ, ȟȚȖ ȖȟȍȕȤ șȓȖȎȕȖ, ȗȘȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ ȗȖȌȋȖȚȖȊȐȚȤ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐșȚȖȊ, Ȗ ȟȍȔ ȝȖȘȖȠȖ șȒȈȏȈȓ ǵȈȗȖȓȍȖȕ: «ǺȈȒȚȐȒȈ, ȔȈȕȍȊȘȣ, ȈȘȚȐȓȓȍȘȐȧ Ȑ ȐȕȎȍȕȍȘȕȣȍ ȕȈțȒȐ, ȒȈȒ Ȑ ȋȍȖȔȍȚȘȐȧ, ȔȖȋțȚ ȉȣȚȤ Ȋȣțȟȍȕȣ ȗȖ ȗȖșȖȉȐȧȔ; ȖȌȕȈȒȖ ȏȕȈȕȐȍ ȊȣșȠȐȝ ȏȈȒȖȕȖȊ ȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȗȘȐȖȉȘȍȚȈȚȤșȧ ȟȍȘȍȏ ȐȏțȟȍȕȐȍ ȐșȚȖȘȐȐ ȊȖȑȕ Ȑ șȘȈȎȍȕȐȑ ȊȍȓȐȒȐȝ ȋȍȕȍȘȈȓȖȊ Ȑ ȓȐȟȕȣȑ ȖȗȣȚ. ǵȍ șțȡȍșȚȊțȍȚ ȕȐȒȈȒȐȝ ȒȘȈȚȒȐȝ Ȑ ȚȖȟȕȣȝ ȗȘȈȊȐȓ, Ȋșȍ ȏȈȊȐșȐȚ ȖȚ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘȈ ȚȖȑ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȖșȚȐ, ș ȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ șȚȈȓȒȐȊȈȍȚșȧ ȋȍȕȍȘȈȓ, ȍȋȖ ȊȣȌȈȦȡȐȝșȧ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊ Ȑ ȕȍȌȖșȚȈȚȒȖȊ, ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘȈ ȊȖȑșȒ, ȚȍȝȕȐȒȐ ȐȓȐ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȐȑ, ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ ȋȖȌȈ Ȑ ȚȣșȧȟȐ ȌȘțȋȐȝ ȖȉșȚȖȧȚȍȓȤșȚȊ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍȌȍȓȈȦȚȊȍȡȐ, ȕȍȗȖȝȖȎȐȍȕȐȕȈȟȚȖ»1.

ǵȈȗȖȓȍȖȕ, ȒȈȒ Ȑ ǫȈȕȕȐȉȈȓ, ȉȣȓ ȝȖȘȖȠȐȔ ȗȖȓȒȖȊȖȌȞȍȔ, ȕȖ ȗȓȖȝȐȔ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐșȚȖȔ, Ȑ ȟȍȘȍȏ ȓȐȟȕȣȑ ȖȗȣȚ ȗȘȐȠȍȓ Ȓ șȗȘȈȊȍȌȓȐȊȖșȚȐ ȌȈȕȕȖȋȖ ȊȣșȒȈȏȣȊȈȕȐȧ. ǨȕȈȓȖȋȐȟȕȣȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ ȐȔȗȍȘșȒȈȧ, Ȉ ȏȈȚȍȔ Ȑ ȕȈȞȐșȚșȒȈȧ ǫȍȘȔȈȕȐȧ, ǹȖȊȍȚșȒȐȑ ǹȖȦȏ șȖȊȍȘȠȈȓȐ ȖȌȕț Ȑ Țț Ȏȍ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒțȦ ȖȠȐȉȒț, ȗȘȍșȓȍȌțȧ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȞȍȓȐ, ȕȍ șȖȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊțȦȡȐȍ ȐȔȍȦȡȐȔșȧ șȘȍȌșȚȊȈȔ. ǹ ȗȖȌȖȉȕȣȔȐ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȧȔȐ Ȋ ȗȖșȓȍȌȕȐȍ ȋȖȌȣ șȚȈȓȒȐȊȈȦȚșȧ Ȑ ǹȀǨ, ȟȚȖ ȗȘȐȊȍȓȖ Ȓ ȊșȗȓȍșȒț ȘȈȉȖȚ, ȗȖșȊȧȡȍȕȕȣȝ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȈȔ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ Ȑ ȋȘȈȕȌ-șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ, ȔȍȚȖȌȈȔ ȖȉțȟȍȕȐȧ Ȑ ȗȖȌȋȖȚȖȊȒȐ ȊȣșȠȐȝ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ Ȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȖȊ, șȗȖșȖȉȕȣȝ ȔȣșȓȐȚȤ Ȑ ȖȗȍȘȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐ. ǷȘȐ ȥȚȖȔ ȖșȖȏȕȈȍȚșȧ Ȑ ȗȖȌȟȍȘȒȐȊȈȍȚșȧ, ȟȚȖ ȗȖșȓȍȌȕȐȍ ȌȍșȧȚȐȓȍȚȐȧ ȈȔȍȘȐȒȈȕșȒȖȑ ȐșȚȖȘȐȐ ȕȍ ȝȊȈȚȈȓȖ ȐȔȍȕȕȖ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȊȐȌȍȕȐȧ șȍȉȧ Ȑ ȔȐȘȈ2. DzȈȒ

1 Caemmerer, Strategical Science, p. 275.

2 Metz, Steven. Decionmaking in Operation Iraqi Freedom: the Strategic Shift of 2007. Executive Editor John R. Martin, Operation Iraqi Freedom Key Decisions Monograph Series, Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute (SSI), US Army War College, May 2010. 12 January 2011. <http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB985.pdf>; Marcella, Gabriel (ed.). Teaching Strategy: Challenge and Responce. Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute (SSI), US Army War College, March 2010. 12 January 2011. <http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/ display.cfm?pubID=976>;

Wardynski, Casey, David S. Lyle and Michael J. Colarusso. Toward U.S. Army Officer Corps Strategy for Success: Retaining Talent. Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute (SSI), US Army War College, January 2010. 12 January 2011. <http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB977.pdf>;

Kim, Jiyul. Cultural Dimensions of Strategy and Policy. Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute (SSI), US Army War College, May 2009. 12 January 2011. http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubid=919.

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ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȖȚȔȍȟȈȍȚ DzȖȓȐȕ ǫȘȍȑ: «ǫȓȈȊȕȖȑ ȐșȚȐȕȖȑ ȏȌȍșȤ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȚȖ, ȟȚȖ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȗȘȐȒȓȈȌȕȣȔ ȐșȒțșșȚȊȖȔ, ȗȘȐȟȍȔ ȈȒȞȍȕȚ ȌȖȓȎȍȕ ȉȣȚȤ șȌȍȓȈȕ ȕȈ șțȡȍșȚȊȐȚȍȓȤȕȖȍ (ȐșȒțșșȚȊȖ), Ȉȕȍ ȗȘȐȓȈȋȈȚȍȓȤȕȖȍ. ǹȗȍȌȈȋȖȋȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȚȖȟȒȐȏȘȍȕȐȧ, șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ȕȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȚȤșȧ Ȑ ȖȞȍȕȐȊȈȚȤșȧ ȒȈȒ șȊȖȉȖȌȕȈȧ ȖȚ ȒȖȕȚȍȒșȚȈ Ȑ șȘȍȌȣ ȔȖȋțȡȍșȚȊȍȕȕȈȧ ȐșȚȐȕȈ. ǶȕȈ ȕȍ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȕȈȉȖȘȖȔ ȉȓȍșȚȧȡȐȝ ȖȚȒȘȖȊȍȕȐȑ, ȌȖȉȣȊȈȍȔȣȝ Ȑȏ ȋȓțȉȐȕ ǼțȒȐȌȐȌȈ, ǹțȕȤ-Ǿȏȣ Ȑ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȈ <...> șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȈȧ ȗȘȈȒȚȐȒȈ ȕȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ șȚȘȖȋȖ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȈ ȒȈȒ ȘȈȏȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȧ ȐȓȐ ȌȈȎȍ ȒȈȒ ȗȓȈȕȐȘțȦȡȈȧ Ȑ ȒȖȔȈȕȌȕȈȧ ȈȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȤ ȓȐȟȕȖșȚȍȑ, ȖȜȐȞȐȈȓȤȕȖ ȗȖȌȋȖȚȖȊȓȍȕȕȣȝ Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐșȚȖȊ. ǷȘȐȟȐȕȈ ȏȈȒȓȦȟȈȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȚȖȔ, ȟȚȖ Ȋșȧ ȊȖȍȕȕȈȧ ȈȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȤ ȐȔȍȍȚ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȑ Ȋȍș, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ ȗȖ ȝȖȌț șȖȉȣȚȐȑ ȗȖȌșȟȐȚȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ȒȖȔȈȕȌȖȑȌȖȔȈ. DzȈȎȌȣȑ ȒȈȗȘȈȓȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȔ ȒȈȗȘȈȓȖȔ»1.

ǹȖȋȓȈșȕȖ ǫȘȍȦ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐșȚ ȌȖȓȎȍȕ țȔȍȚȤ:

1.ǨȉșȚȘȈȒȚȕȖ ȚȍȖȘȍȚȐȏȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ, țȟȈșȚȊȖȊȈȚȤ Ȋ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȐ ȐȓȐ, ȉȖȓȍȍ ȚȖȟȕȖ, ȐȕȚȍȘȗȘȍȚȈȞȐȐ ȊȍȟȕȖȑ Ȑ țȕȐȊȍȘșȈȓȤȕȖȑ Ȗȉȡȍȑ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ.

2.ǷȖșȚȐȋȈȚȤ, ȐȏȖȉȘȍȚȈȚȤ ȐȓȐ ȖȚȒȘȣȊȈȚȤ ȋȓȈȊȕțȦ ȐȌȍȦ (ȐȌȍȐ), ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȊȈȦȡțȦ ȉȈȏȐșȕȖȍ ȘțȒȖȊȖȌșȚȊȖ Ȍȓȧ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȡȐȒȖȊ Ȋ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȣȝ ȐșȚȖȘȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȒȖȕȚȍȒșȚȈȝ.

3.ǫȖȚȖȊȐȚȤ Ȑ ȖȜȖȘȔȓȧȚȤ ȗȘȖȍȒȚȣ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȐșȚȖȘȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȖȕȕȣȝ ȗȓȈȕȖȊ, ȐȏȊȍșȚȕȣȝ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȒȈȒ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ, Ȍȓȧ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȕȣȔȐ șȐȓȈȔȐ; ȥȚȖ ȚȘȍȉțȍȚ ȒȖȔȈȕȌȖȊȈȕȐȧ Ȑ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȖȔ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ, ȊȒȓȦȟȈȧ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȖȍ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ, ȒȈȒ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒ ȉȘȖșȈȍȚ ȊȣȏȖȊ.

4.DzȖȔȈȕȌȖȊȈȚȤ Ȑ țȗȘȈȊȓȧȚȤ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȖȔ ȖșȊȖȍȕȐȧ ȗȓȈȕȖȊ ȊȖȑșȒȈȔȐ «Ȋ ȗȖȓȍȊȣȝ țșȓȖȊȐȧȝ» – ȠȐȘȖȒȖȍ ȗȖȓȍ ȌȍȧȚȍȓȤȕȖșȚȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȖȍ ȖȝȊȈȚȣȊȈȍȚ ȊȣȉȖȘ ȗȖȌȟȐȕȍȕȕȣȝ ȒȖȔȈȕȌȐȘȖȊ, ȕȈȉȓȦȌȍȕȐȍ Ȑ ȖȞȍȕȒț Ȑȝ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȍȑ Ȑ șȗȖșȖȉȕȖșȚȍȑ Ȑ ȋȖȚȖȊȕȖșȚȤ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȐȚȤ ȗȓȈȕȣ ȗȘȐ ȘȈȏȊȖȘȈȟȐȊȈȕȐȐ șȖȉȣȚȐȑ2.

ǷȖȕȐȔȈȧ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȕȖșȚȤ Ȑ țșȓȖȊȕȖșȚȤ ȚȍȘȔȐȕȈ «ȖȉțȟȍȕȐȍ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ», DzȖȓȐȕ ǫȘȍȑ ȜȖȘȔțȓȐȘțȍȚ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȗȘȐȕȞȐȗȣ ȗȘȍȗȖȌȈȊȈȕȐȧ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ Ȋ șȖȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊțȦȡȐȝ țȟȍȉȕȣȝ ȏȈȊȍȌȍȕȐȧȝ:

1.ǬȖȓȎȕȖ ȗȖȖȡȘȧȚȤșȧ șȚȘȍȔȓȍȕȐȍ șȚțȌȍȕȚȖȊ ȔȣșȓȐȚȤ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐ3.

2.Ǭȓȧ ȓȐȞ, șȚȘȍȔȧȡȐȝșȧ șȚȈȚȤ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐșȚȈȔȐ, ȎȍȓȈȚȍȓȤȕȖ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȖȍ ȜȖȘȔȈȓȤȕȖȍ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȗȖ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ.

1 Gray, Colin S. Schools for Strategy: Teaching Strategy for 21st Century. Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute (SSI), US Army War College, November 2009, p. 14. 12 January 2011. http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/ display.cfm?pubid=947.

2 Ibid, p. 13.

3 Builder, Carl H. “Keeping the Strategic Flame,” Joint Force Quarterly (JFQ), Issue 14, Forth Quarter 1996/97, pp. 76-84. 12 January 2011. http://www.dtic.mil/doctrine/jel/jfq_pubs/1034.pdf.

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ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

3.ǽȖȚȧ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȗȖ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ ȌȖȓȎȕȖ ȐȔȍȚȤ Ȋ șȊȖȍȑ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȖȉȡțȦ ȚȍȖȘȐȦ, ȊȕȍȊȘȍȔȍȕȕțȦ Ȑ țȕȐȊȍȘșȈȓȤȕțȦ, șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȗȘȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐȔ ȌȍȓȖȔ, Ȑ ȍȍ ȐșȗȖȓȕȐȚȍȓȐ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ țȟȐȚȤșȧ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȦ ȌȈȕȕȖȑ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ Ȓ ȚȍȒțȡȐȔ ȕțȎȌȈȔ.

4.dzȦȉȈȧ șȐșȚȍȔȈ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȗȖȚȍȘȗȐȚ ȕȍțȌȈȟț, ȍșȓȐ ȉțȌȍȚ ȗȘȍȕȍȉȘȍȋȈȚȤ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȣȔȐ ȗȘȐȕȞȐȗȈȔȐ. ǵȈȐȉȖȓȍȍ șȍȘȤȍȏȕȖȑ ȖȠȐȉȒȖȑ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȗȘȍȕȍȉȘȍȎȍȕȐȍ ȊȈȎȕȖșȚȤȦ ȘȖȓȐ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ.

5.ǶȚȌȍȓȤȕȣȔ ȗțȕȒȚȖȔ ȕȈȌȖ ȖȚȔȍȚȐȚȤ Ȋ ȘȖȓȐ ȞȍȕȕȖȋȖ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȈ ȊȈȎȕȖșȚȤ șȒȍȗȚȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ, ȍșȓȐ ȕȍ ȞȐȕȐȟȕȖȋȖ, ȚȐȗȈ ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȧ.

6.ǾȍȓȍșȖȖȉȘȈȏȕȖșȚȤ ȈȒȚȐȊȕȖȋȖ șȒȍȗȚȐȞȐȏȔȈ ȌȖȓȎȕȈ ȉȣȚȤ șȉȈȓȈȕșȐȘȖȊȈȕȈ ȌȖȊȍȘȐȍȔ Ȓ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐșȚț Ȑ ȍȋȖ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ. ȅȚȖ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȐȚ ȐȔ ȝȖȘȖȠȖ ȜțȕȒȞȐȖȕȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȗȘȐ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȐ ȗȖșȚȈȊȓȍȕȕȣȝ ȏȈȌȈȟ.

7.ǹȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȍ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȌȖȓȎȕȖ ȊȒȓȦȟȈȚȤ ȚȖ, ȟȚȖ șȍȋȖȌȕȧ ȗȘȐȕȧȚȖ ȕȈȏȣȊȈȚȤ ȋțȔȈȕȐȚȈȘȕȣȔȐ ȕȈțȒȈȔȐ1.

DzȘȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐ ȊȈȎȕȣȔ Ȋ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ ȘȖȓȐ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȟȍșȒȖȑ ȊȖȓȐ, ȚȘȍȕȐȧ Ȑ ȚțȔȈȕȈ ȊȖȑȕȣ. ǨȕȌȘȍ ǩȍȜȘ (Andre Beaufre) ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȓ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȦ ȒȈȒ «ȐșȒțșșȚȊȖ ȌȐȈȓȍȒȚȐȒȐ șȐȓȣ ȐȓȐ, ȉȖȓȍȍ ȚȖȟȕȖ, ȐșȒțșșȚȊȖ ȌȐȈȓȍȒȚȐȒȐ ȌȊțȝ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȉȖȘșȚȊțȦȡȐȝ ȊȖȓȤ, ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȦȡȐȝ șȐȓț Ȍȓȧ ȘȈȏȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ șȊȖȍȋȖ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȈ»2. ǬȈȕȕȣȑ ȈșȗȍȒȚ ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ ȊȕȖșȐȚ ȗȘȐȕȞȐȗȐȈȓȤȕțȦ ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȖșȚȤ Ȋ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȍ șȖȉȣȚȐȑ. DzȖȓȐȕ ǫȘȍȑ, ȗȣȚȈȧșȤ ȒȘȈȚȒȖ șȜȖȘȔțȓȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȗȘȐȟȐȕȣ, ȌȍȓȈȦȡȐȍ șȓȖȎȕȖȑ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȒț Ȑ ȘȍȈȓȐȏȈȞȐȦ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ, ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚ șȓȍȌțȦȡȐȍ ȌȖȊȖȌȣ:

x Ȋ șȐȓț șȈȔȖȑ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȣ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ, ȊȣȌȍȘȎȈȊȠȍȑ ȐșȗȣȚȈȕȐȍ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȍȔ Ȑ ȊȖ Ȋșȍȝ ȒȖȕȚȍȒșȚȈȝ;

x Ȑȏ-ȏȈ ȔȕȖȎȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖșȚȐ Ȑ ȈȉșȖȓȦȚȕȖȋȖ ȔȕȖȋȖȖȉȘȈȏȐȧ ȐșȚȖȟȕȐȒȖȊ ȚȘȍȕȐȧ; x ȊȊȐȌț ȚȖȋȖ, ȟȚȖ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ȗȓȈȕȐȘțȍȚșȧ Ȍȓȧ ȒȖȕȚȍȒșȚȈ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ ȉțȒȊȈȓȤȕȖ

ȕȍ șȓțȟȈȍȚșȧ Ȑ ȕȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ șȓțȟȐȚȤșȧ; ȉțȌțȡȍȍ ȕȍ șȓțȟȈȍȚșȧ3.

ǺȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȐ ȕȍ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȐȏȔȍȕȐȚȤ șȓȖȎȕțȦ ȗȘȐȘȖȌț șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ. Ǫ 1905ȋ. ȋȍȕȍȘȈȓ-ȓȍȑȚȍȕȈȕȚ ǸțȌȖȓȤȜ ȜȖȕ ǾȐȔȔȍȘȍȘ (Rudolf von Caemmerer) ȗȐșȈȓ ȕȈȟȈȓȤȕȐȒț ǫȍȕȍȘȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȠȚȈȉȈ ǫȍȘȔȈȕȐȐ ȜȍȓȤȌȔȈȘȠȈȓț ǨȓȤȜȘȍȌț ȜȖȕ ȀȓȐȜȜȍȕț (Alfred Graf von Schlieffen): «ǩȣȊȠȐȍ Ȑ șțȡȍșȚȊțȦȡȐȍ ȊȕȈșȚȖȧȡȍȍ ȊȘȍȔȧ țȋȘȖȏȣ ȖȠȐȉȒȐ Ȋ ȗȘȍȌȊȈȘȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ șȖșȘȍȌȖȚȖȟȍȕȕȖȔ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȐ ȠȐȘȖȒȖ ȘȈȏȉȘȖșȈȕȕȣȝ ȟȈșȚȍȑ ȈȘȔȐȐ ȕȣȕȍ ȗȘȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐ ȗȖȓȕȖșȚȤȦ ȐșȒȓȦȟȍȕȣ ȥȓȍȒȚȘȐȟȍșȒȐȔ ȚȍȓȍȋȘȈ-

1 Gray, Schools for Strategy, pp. 40-51.

2 Beaufre, André. An Introduction to Strategy: With Particular Reference to Problems of Defense, Politics, Economics, and Diplomacy in the Nuclear Age. London: Faber and Faber, 1965, p. 22.

3 Gray, Why Strategy is Difficult, p. 82.

197

ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȜȖȔ. <…> ǷȖȓȍȊȖȑ ȚȍȓȍȋȘȈȜ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȗȘȖȓȖȎȍȕ ȊȍȏȌȍ ȚȈȒ ȉȣșȚȘȖ, ȒȈȒ ȉȣșȚȘȖ ȗȘȖȌȊȐȋȈȦȚșȧ ȊȖȑșȒȈ ȕȈ ȔȈȘȠȍ, Ȑ ȠȚȈȉ ȒȈȎȌȣȑ ȊȍȟȍȘ ȉțȌȍȚ ȏȕȈȚȤ, ȒȈȒ ȖȉșȚȖȧȚ ȌȍȓȈ ș ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȣȔȐ ȈȘȔȐȧȔȐ, Ȑ ȗȖȌȈȊȈȚȤ șȖȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊțȦȡȐȍ ȒȖȔȈȕȌȣ»1. ǷȘȐȊȖȌȐȔȣȍ ȈȘȋțȔȍȕȚȣ ȔȖȋțȚ ȊȣȏȊȈȚȤ țȓȣȉȒț ț șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȖȋȖ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐșȚȈ ș ȍȋȖ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȔȐ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȧȔȐ șȊȧȏȐ Ȑ ȖȋȕȍȊȖȋȖ ȗȖȘȈȎȍȕȐȧ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ, ȚȍȔ ȕȍ Ȕȍȕȍȍ, ȕȍ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȚ ȘȍȠȐȚȤ ȖșȕȖȊȕțȦ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔț șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ Ȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ. ǩȖȓȍȍ ȚȖȋȖ, ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȐȕȕȖȊȈȞȐȐ Ȑ ȕȖȊȣȍ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȘȍȏȒȖ țșȓȖȎȕȐȓȐ ȒȈȒ ȗȖȌȋȖȚȖȊȒț, ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȘȈȉȖȚț șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐșȚȈ, ȚȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖ ȊȣȘȖșȓȖ ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȖ ȗȈȘȈȔȍȚȘȖȊ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ Ȗȕ ȌȖȓȎȍȕțȟȐȚȣȊȈȚȤȗȘȐȊȣȘȈȉȖȚȒȍȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ.

DzȖȓȐȕ ǫȘȍȑ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚ șȓȍȌțȦȡȐȍ ȘȍȒȖȔȍȕȌȈȞȐȐ, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȡȐȍ șȗȘȈȊȐȚȤșȧ șȖ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȤȦ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ. ǿȚȖȉȣ ȌȖȉȐȚȤșȧ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ țșȗȍȝȈ, ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȕȣȍ șȐȓȣ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ:

x ȉȣȚȤ ȊȕțȚȘȍȕȕȍ șȊȧȏȈȕȕȣȔȐ (ȒȖȋȍȘȍȕȚȕȣȔȐ), ȚȖ ȍșȚȤ ȕȈȌȓȍȎȈȡȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ ȖȉȢȍȌȐȕȍȕȕȣȔȐ;

x ȉȣȚȤ Ȋ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖȔ ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȍ Ȑ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȚȤ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȑ ȥȜȜȍȒȚ, ȔȈșȠȚȈȉȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȣȑ ȗȖ ȏȈȌȈȟȈȔ, țșȚȈȕȈȊȓȐȊȈȍȔȣȔ ȊȣșȖȒȖȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȖȑ;

x ȗȘȐȔȍȕȧȚȤșȧ ȗȘȐȕțȌȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ Ȍȓȧ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȏȈȌȈȟ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ șȖȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊțȦȚ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȔ ȞȍȓȧȔ2.

ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, ȕȍșȔȖȚȘȧ ȕȈ ȉȣșȚȘțȦ șȔȍȕț șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȓȈȕȌȠȈȜȚȈ Ȋ 21 ȊȍȒȍ, ȖșȕȖȊȕȣȍ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȣ, ȗȘȐȊȖȌȧȡȐȍ Ȓ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ, ȖșȚȈȦȚșȧ ȕȍȐȏȔȍȕȕȣȔȐ șȖ ȊȘȍȔȍȕ ǬȘȍȊȕȍȋȖ ǸȐȔȈ. Ǫ ȗȖșȚȖȧȕȕȖ ȔȍȕȧȦȡȍȑșȧ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȑ șȘȍȌȍ, ȒȈȒ Ȑ ȗȘȍȎȌȍ, ȖȟȍȕȤ ȚȘțȌȕȖ, ȕȖ ȒȘȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐ ȊȈȎȕȖ țȔȍȚȤ ȊȣȧȊȓȧȚȤ Ȑ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȚȤ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȗȘȐȖȘȐȚȍȚȣ. ǺȈȒȎȍ ȖșȚȈȍȚșȧ șȗȘȈȊȍȌȓȐȊȣȔ șȚȈȘȣȑ ȈȜȖȘȐȏȔ «ȝȖȟȍȠȤ ȔȐȘȈ ȋȖȚȖȊȤșȧ Ȓ ȊȖȑȕȍ», ȒȖȋȌȈ Ȍȓȧ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȍȕȐȧ șȚȈȉȐȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȔȐȘȈ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȖ ȖȉȧȏȈȕȖ ȋȖȚȖȊȐȚȤșȧ Ȓ ȊȖȑȕȍ. ǯȌȍșȤ ȐȔȍȍȚ ȔȍșȚȖ șȊȖȍȋȖ ȘȖȌȈ ȗȈȘȈȌȖȒș, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȗȍȘȍțșȍȘȌșȚȊȖȊȈȕȐȍ Ȋ ȚȈȒȖȑ ȗȖȌȋȖȚȖȊȒȍ Ȋ ȌȖȓȋȖșȘȖȟȕȖȑ ȗȍȘșȗȍȒȚȐȊȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȖșȓȈȉȐȚȤ ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȟȍșȒȐȍ, ȗșȐȝȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȍ Ȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ șȖșȚȈȊȓȧȦȡȐȍ ȊȓȈșȚȐ Ȑ șȗȘȖȊȖȞȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȊȖȑȕț. «ǸȍȠȍȕȐȍ ȏȈȒȓȦȟȈȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȚȖȔ, ȟȚȖȉȣ ȚȈȒ șȉȈȓȈȕșȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȖȉȡȐȍ ȞȍȓȐ, șȗȖșȖȉȣ Ȑ șȘȍȌșȚȊȈ, ȟȚȖȉȣ ȍșȚȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖȍ ȕȈȗȘȧȎȍȕȐȍ Ȋ șȜȍȘȍ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȐ ȔȍȎȌț ȊȕțȚȘȍȕȕȍȑ Ȑ ȊȕȍȠȕȍȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȈȔȐ ȉȣȓȖ ȉȣ șȊȍȌȍȕȖ Ȓ ȔȐȕȐȔțȔț, ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȊȈȧ ȗȘȐ ȥȚȖȔ ș ȔȐȕȐȔȈȓȤȕȣȔ ȘȐșȒȖȔ ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȤ ȎȐȏȕȍȕȕȖ ȊȈȎȕȣȝ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȐȕȚȍȘȍșȖȊ»3. ǵȍșȖȔȕȍȕȕȖ, ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȍ ȚȈȒȖȋȖ ȉȈȓȈȕșȈ ȧȊȓȧȓȖșȤ șȓȖȎȕȖȑ ȏȈȌȈȟȍȑ Ȑ ȐșȒțșșȚȊȖȔ Ȋ ȋȖȘȈȏȌȖ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȗȘȖșȚȣȍ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȈ. Ǫ 21 ȊȍȒȍ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȥȒșȗȖȕȍȕȞȐȈȓȤȕȖ ȘȈșȚȍȚ ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȖ

1 Caemmerer, Strategical Science, pp. 171-172.

2 Gray, Why Strategy is Difficult, p. 86.

3 Jablonsky, David. Why Is Strategy Difficult, p. 123.

198

ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȜȈȒȚȖȘȖȊ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȌȖȓȎȍȕ țȟȐȚȣȊȈȚȤ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐșȚ, șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ȖșȚȈȍȚșȧ ȕȈȐȉȖȓȍȍ șȓȖȎȕȣȔ Ȑȏ ȐșȒțșșȚȊ1.

3. DzȓȈșșȐȜȐȒȈȞȐȧ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ. ǹȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȍ ȗȘȖȋȕȖȏȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ Ȑ ȋȖȘȐȏȖȕȚȣ

ǹțȡȍșȚȊțȍȚ ȕȍșȒȖȓȤȒȖ șȐșȚȍȔ ȒȓȈșșȐȜȐȒȈȞȐȐ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȚȍȖȘȐȑ Ȑ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȑ. DzȓȈșșȐȜȐȒȈȞȐȧ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȗȘȖȊȍȌȍȕȈ ȕȈ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȚțȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ș ȊȣȌȍȓȍȕȐȍȔ ȌȍȒȓȈȘȈȚȐȊȕȖȑ, ȈȒȚțȈȓȤȕȖȑ Ȑ ȐȌȍȈȓȤȕȖȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȑ. ǬȍȒȓȈȘȈȚȐȊȕȈȧ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ȈȘȚȐȒțȓȐȘțȍȚ, ȟȚȖ ȚȖ ȐȓȐ ȐȕȖȍ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȖ ȗȘȖȊȖȏȋȓȈȠȈȍȚ Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ șȊȖȍȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ. ǷȘȐ ȥȚȖȔ ȖȕȈ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȒȈȒ șȖȊȗȈȌȈȚȤ ș ȘȍȈȓȤȕȖȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȍȑ șȚȘȈȕȣ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȖȚȓȐȟȈȚȤșȧ ȖȚ ȕȍȍ. ǽȖȘȖȠȐȔ ȗȘȐȔȍȘȖȔ ȌȍȒȓȈȘȈȚȐȊȕȖȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȏȈȧȊȓȍȕȐȍ ǹȀǨ Ȗ șȗȖșȖȉȕȖșȚȐ ȖȌȕȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȖ țȟȈșȚȊȖȊȈȚȤ Ȋ ȉȖȍȊȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧȝ ȕȈ ȌȊțȝ ȋȓȈȊȕȣȝ ȚȍȈȚȘȈȝ ȊȖȑȕȣ (Major Theaters of War), ȝȖȚȧ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȕșȚȊȖ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȍȑ șȒȓȖȕȧȦȚșȧ Ȓ ȚȖȔț, ȟȚȖ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ șȚȘȈȕȣ ȕȍ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȚ ȘȍȈȓȐȏȖȊȈȚȤ ȚȈȒțȦ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȦ. ǶȟȍȊȐȌȕȖ, ȟȚȖ ȖȚȒȈȏ ȖȚ ȌȍȒȓȈȘȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȖȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȈȚȐȟȕȣȔ, Ȑ șȚȘȈȕȈ ȕȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ șȍȉȍ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȐȚȤ ȟȈșȚȖȍ ȍȍ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȍ. ǸȍȈȓȤȕȈȧ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ȖȉȘȈȡȈȍȚșȧ Ȓ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȐȧȔ ȔȍȎȌț ȌȍȒȓȈȘȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȖȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȍȑ ȐȘȍȈȓȤȕȖșȚȤȦ Ȑ ȖȚȊȍȟȈȍȚ ȕȈ ȊȖȗȘȖș, ȒȈȒȈȧ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȈ, ȍșȓȐ ȌȍȒȓȈȘȈȚȐȊȕȈȧ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȕȍȘȍȈȓȐȏțȍȔȖȑ. ǰȌȍȈȓȤȕȈȧ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ȖȚȊȍȟȈȍȚ ȕȈ ȊȖȗȘȖș, ȒȈȒȖȑ ȔȖȋȓȈ ȉȣ ȉȣȚȤ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ, ȍșȓȐ ȐȔȍȓșȧ ȉȣ ȕȍȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȕȣȑ ȌȖșȚțȗ ȒȖ ȊșȍȔ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȣȔ ȘȍșțȘșȈȔ. ǶȟȍȊȐȌȕȖ, ȟȚȖ ȚȈȒȈȧ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ȐȋȘȈȍȚ ȘȖȓȤ țȟȍȉȕȖȋȖ ȗȖșȖȉȐȧȐȘȍȌȒȖșȖȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊțȍȚȘȍȈȓȤȕȣȔ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȧȔ șȚȘȈȕȣ2.

ǬȘțȋȐȔ ȔȍȚȖȌȖȔ ȒȓȈșșȐȜȐȒȈȞȐȐ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȖȕȕȣȑ ȐȓȐ ȐȍȘȈȘȝȐȟȍșȒȐȑ. ǶȕȈ ȊȣȌȍȓȧȍȚ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕțȦ ȐȓȐ ȋȘȈȕȌ-șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȦ Ȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȦ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȐ ȐȓȐ ȖȗȍȘȈȚȐȊȕțȦ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȦ. ǽȖȚȧ ȚȍȘȔȐȕ «ȖȗȍȘȈȚȐȊȕȈȧ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ» ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ șȗȖȘȕȣȔ, ȚȍȔ ȕȍ Ȕȍȕȍȍ Ȗȕ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȓȐȚȍȘȈȚțȘȍ Ȑ ȘȧȌȍ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȌȖȒȚȘȐȕ, Ȋ ȟȈșȚȕȖșȚȐ Ȋ ǶȉȢȍȌȐȕȍȕȕȖȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȌȖȒȚȘȐȕȍ ǹȀǨ. ǵȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȈȧ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ șȊȧȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ș ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧȔȐ ȕȈ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȍȕȕȖȔ/ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȔ țȘȖȊȕȍ. ǪȖȍȕȕȣȑ ȒȖȓȓȍȌȎ ǨȘȔȐȐ ǹȀǨ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȍȚ ȍȍ ȒȈȒ «ȕȈȐȉȖȓȍȍ ȖȉȡȐȑ ȗȖȌȝȖȌ șȚȘȈȕȣ ȗȘȐ ȗȘȍșȓȍȌȖȊȈȕȐȐ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȏȈȌȈȟ Ȋ ȔȍȎȌțȕȈȘȖȌȕȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȍ»3. ǽȖȘȖȠȖ ȗȘȖȘȈȉȖȚȈȕȕȈȧ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȈȧ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ȊȒȓȦȟȈȍȚ Ȋ șȍȉȧ Ȋșȍ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȣ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȔȖȡȐ. ǹȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȈȧ ȗȘȈȒȚȐȒȈ ȌȖȗțșȒȈȍȚ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȒț țȏȒȐȝ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȝ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȑ, ȕȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ, Ȋ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȐȓȐ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ șȜȍȘȈȝ, Ȋ ȖȉȓȈșȚȐ ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȒȐ, ȖȌȕȈȒȖ ȚȈȒȖȑ ȗȖȌȝȖȌ ȊȘȧȌ ȓȐ ȔȖȎȕȖ

1 Kennedy, Paul M. (ed.). Grand Strategies in War and Peace: Toward a Broader Definition. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1991, p. 7.

2 Bartholomees, A Survey of Strategic Thought, p. 83. 3 Dorff, A Primer in Strategy Development, p. 12.

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ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȕȈȏȊȈȚȤ țȌȈȟȕȣȔ Ȑ ȗȘȐȍȔȓȍȔȣȔ, ȌȈȎȍ ȍșȓȐ ȗȘȐȕȧȚȤ ȊȖ ȊȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ ȚȖȚ ȜȈȒȚ, ȟȚȖ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȣ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȔȖȡȐ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȦȚ ȔȐȕȐȔȈȓȤȕȖȍ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȍ ȕȈ Țț ȐȓȐ ȐȕțȦ șȜȍȘț ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖȑ ȎȐȏȕȐ.

ǹȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȍ ȗȘȖȋȕȖȏȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ. ǸȈșșȍȧȕȐȍ ȚțȔȈȕȈ Ȑ ȚȘȍȕȐȧ ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȑ ȖȞȍȕȒȈ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȋȖȘȐȏȖȕȚȖȊ ȊȖ Ȋșȍ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȈ ȚȘȍȉȖȊȈȓȈ ȊȣșȖȒȖȋȖ ȕȈȗȘȧȎȍȕȐȧ ȐȕȚȍȓȓȍȒȚțȈȓȤȕȣȝ șȐȓ Ȑ ȧȊȓȧȓȈșȤ șȓȖȎȕȣȔ ȐșȒțșșȚȊȖȔ. ǺȈȒȖȋȖ ȘȖȌȈ ȖȞȍȕȒȐ ȖȚȓȐȟȈȦȚșȧ ȖȚ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȕȍȐȏȊȍșȚȕȖȑ ȏȍȔȓȐ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ș ȒȈȎȌȣȔ ȠȈȋȖȔ Ȋ ȕȍȐȏȊȍȌȈȕȕȖȍ ȏȈȗȖȓȕȧȦȚșȧ ȉȍȓȣȍ ȗȧȚȕȈ ȒȈȘȚȣ, țȔȍȕȤȠȈȧ ȖȉȡțȦ ȕȍȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȖșȚȤ. ǹȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȋȖȘȐȏȖȕȚȣ Ȑ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȖ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȦȚșȧ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȟȕȣȔȐ, ȥȓȈșȚȐȟȕȣȔȐ Ȑ ȔȖȋțȚ ȐȏȔȍȕȧȚȤșȧ, Ȋ ȚȖȔ ȟȐșȓȍ ȒȈȒ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚ țșȐȓȐȑ Ȑ ȊȓȐȧȕȐȧ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȧ, ȧȊȓȧȦȡȍȋȖșȧ ȖȌȕȐȔ Ȑȏ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȖȊ ȌȈȕȕȖȋȖ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȈ1. ǯȈȕȐȔȈȧșȤ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȔ ȗȘȖȋȕȖȏȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍȔ ȕȈ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȚȍȒțȡȍȑ ȖȉșȚȈȕȖȊȒȐ Ȑ ȐȔȍȦȡȍȋȖșȧ ȖȗȣȚȈ, ȊșȍȋȌȈ ȕȈȌȖ ȗȖȔȕȐȚȤ ȈȜȖȘȐȏȔ, ȟȚȖ «ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȕȐȍ, ȖșȖȉȍȕȕȖ ȉțȌțȡȍȋȖ, ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ șȓȖȎȕȣȔ ȌȍȓȖȔ»2, Ȉ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȗȘȍȌțȗȘȍȎȌȍȕȐȍ DzȖȓȐȕȈ ǫȘȍȧ Ȗ ȌȈȕȕȖȔ ȊȐȌȍ ȌȍȧȚȍȓȤȕȖșȚȐ: «ǪȖȑȕȈ ȕȍ ȌȖȓȎȕȈ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȚȤșȧ șȗȖșȖȉȈȔȐ, ȖȚȘȣȊȈȦȡȐȔȐ ȍȍȖȚȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ, șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȐȒțȓȤȚțȘȕȖȋȖȒȖȕȚȍȒșȚȖȊ. ǪȖȍȕȕȣȑ ȐșȚȍȉȓȐȠȔȍȕȚ șȒȓȖȕȍȕ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȈȚȣȊȈȚȤ ȊȗȍȟȈȚȓȧȦȡȐȍ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ Țȍȝ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ Ȗȕ șȈȔ ȗȘȍȌȗȖȟȐȚȈȍȚ ȘȍȠȈȚȤ, ȕȍȎȍȓȐ Țȍȝ, ȟȚȖ șȚȈȊȐȚ ȐșȒțșȕȣȑ ȐȓȐ țȌȈȟȓȐȊȣȑȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒ.

ǪȣȧȊȓȍȕȐȍ ȚȍȕȌȍȕȞȐȑ Ȑ ȈȕȈȓȐȏ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȕȍ ȖȟȍȕȤ ȗȖȓȍȏȕȣȔ ȘțȒȖȊȖȌșȚȊȖȔ Ȍȓȧ ȉțȌțȡȍȋȖ. ǹȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐ ȉțȌțȡȍȍ ȕȈȗȘȈȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȗȖșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȧȔȐ ȚȍȕȌȍȕȞȐȑ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ Ȕȣ ȊȐȌȐȔ, ȚȍȕȌȍȕȞȐȧȔȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊțȦȚ Ȑ ȔȖȋțȚ ȐȕȐȞȐȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȍ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȍ.

ǷȘȖȐȏȖȠȓȖ ȕȍȖȎȐȌȈȕȕȖȍ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȍ șȖȉȣȚȐȑ. ǵȍȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ Ȑȏ ȕȐȝ ȔȖȋțȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȗȘȐȧȚȕȣȔȐ, ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȕȍ ȖȟȍȕȤ. ǴȈȓȖȊȍȘȖȧȚȕȖ, ȟȚȖ Ȕȣ ȖȉȓȈȌȈȍȔ ȉȖȓȤȠȍȑ ȗȘȖȏȖȘȓȐȊȖșȚȤȦ, ȕȍȎȍȓȐ ȕȈȠȐ ȗȘȍȌȒȐ. ǵȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖ ȖșȚȍȘȍȋȈȚȤșȧ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȏȈȒȖȕȈ ȕȍȗȘȍȌțșȔȖȚȘȍȕȕȣȝ ȗȖșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȑ.

ǺȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȊȖȑȕȈ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȌțȥȓȤȦ, ȐȔȍȦȚșȧ țȔȕȣȍ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȐ, ȕȍ ȋȖȊȖȘȧ Ȗ Țȍȝ, ȒȚȖ ȉțȌȍȚ șȚȈȘȈȚȤșȧ ȖȚȘȐȞȈȚȤ ȕȈș, ȔȈȕȍȘț ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȊȈȍȚ ȉȍșșȗȖȘȕțȦ șȐȓț ȕȈȠȍȑ ȚȘȈȕșȜȖȘȔȐȘțȦȡȍȑșȧ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȔȖȡȐ»3.

ǬȈȎȍ ȚȖȟȕȈȧ ȐȌȍȕȚȐȜȐȒȈȞȐȧ Ȑ ȈȕȈȓȐȏ șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȝ ȚȍȕȌȍȕȞȐȑ ȕȍ ȔȖȋțȚ șȓțȎȐȚȤ ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȣȔ ȖșȕȖȊȈȕȐȍȔ Ȍȓȧ șȖșȚȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ ȗȘȖȋȕȖȏȈ. ǵȈȉȓȦȌȈȍȔȣȍ ȚȍȕȌȍȕȞȐȐ ȘȈȏȊȐȊȈȦȚșȧ ȗȈȘȈȓȓȍȓȤȕȖ ȊȖ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ, ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊțȧ ȒȈȒ ȌȘțȋ ș

1 Gray, Why Strategy is Difficult, p. 83.

2 ǽȖȚȧ ȥȚȖȚ ȈȜȖȘȐȏȔ Ȋ șȘȍȌȍ ȈȔȍȘȐȒȈȕșȒȐȝ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐșȚȖȊ ȗȘȐȕȧȚȖ ȗȘȐȗȐșȣȊȈȚȤ ȉȍȑșȉȖȓȐșȚț DZȖȋȐ ǩȍȘȘȈ (Yogi Berra), Ȋ Țȍȝ ȐȓȐ Ȑȕȣȝ ȊȈȘȐȈȞȐȧȝ Ȗȕ ȊșȚȘȍȟȈȍȚșȧ ț ȌȍșȧȚȒȈ ȈȊȚȖȘȖȊ – ȖȚ ȒȐȚȈȑșȒȐȝ ȜȐȓȖșȖȜȖȊ, ȌȖ ǴȈȘȒȈ ǺȊȍȕȈ Ȑ ǵȐȓȤșȈ ǩȖȘȈ.

3 Gray, How Has War Changed Since the End of the Cold War, pp. 16-17.

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