Арзуманян Р., Сложное мышление и сеть парадигма нелинейности и среда безопасности 21 века

ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȔȈȚȍȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȔ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȈȔ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȌȖșȚȖȑȕȣ ǵȤȦȚȖȕȈ ȐȓȐ ȅȑȓȍȘȈ1. ǺȘȍȉȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖșȚȐ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȧ ȐȕȚțȐȞȐȐ ȕȍ ȍșȚȤ ȟȚȖ-ȚȖ ȥȒșȚȘȈȖȘȌȐȕȈȘȕȖȍ Ȍȓȧ ȐșȚȖȘȐȒȖȊ Ȑ ȗȘȖȟȐȝ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȍȑ ȋțȔȈȕȐȚȈȘȕȣȝ ȌȐșȞȐȗȓȐȕ. ǶȌȕȈȒȖ Ȍȓȧ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȐȚȍȓȍȑ ȚȖȟȕȣȝ ȕȈțȒ, șȗȍȞȐȈȓȐșȚȖȊ, ȗȖȓțȟȐȊȠȐȝ ȐȕȎȍȕȍȘȕȖȍ Ȑ ȚȍȝȕȐȟȍșȒȖȍ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȊȈȕȐȍ, ȌȈȕȕȖȍ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȕȍȗȘȐȊȣȟȕȣȔ. ǷȘȖȉȓȍȔȈ Ȋ ȚȖȔ, ȟȚȖ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȕșȚȊȖ ȖȜȐȞȍȘȖȊ Ȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȈȕȈȓȐȚȐȒȖȊ ȐȔȍȦȚ ȐȔȍȕȕȖ ȚȈȒȖȍ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȊȈȕȐȍ, Ȑ Ȑȝ țȟȈȚ ȖȘȐȍȕȚȐȘȖȊȈȚȤșȧ Ȑ ȗȖȓȈȋȈȚȤșȧ șȒȖȘȍȍ ȕȈ ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȣȍ, ȕȍȎȍȓȐ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȣȍ, ȐȕȚțȐȚȐȊȕȣȍ ȒȘȐȚȍȘȐȐ Ȑ ȖȞȍȕȒȐ: «Ǵȣ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ ȗȖȌȟȍȘȒȕțȚȤ, ȟȚȖ ȊȖ ȔȕȖȋȐȝ ȘȈȏȌȍȓȈȝ ȕȈțȒȐ Ȑ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȐ ȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȖ ȗȘȐȓȈȋȈȦȚșȧ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȍ țșȐȓȐȧ Ȍȓȧ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȜȐȏȐȟȍșȒȐȝ șȐșȚȍȔ ȐȓȐ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȖȊ. ǰ ȒȈȒ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȈȚȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ȔȈȚȍȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȈȧ ȔȖȌȍȓȤ, ȚȖ ȐȕȖȋȌȈ ȕȈ șȒȖȘțȦ ȘțȒț ȗȘȖȊȖȌȐȚșȧ ȕȍșȒȖȓȤȒȖ ȒȖȔȗȤȦȚȍȘȕȣȝ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȑ. ǻȉȈȦȒȈȕȕȣȍ ȜȈȓȤȠȐȊȣȔ ȖȡțȡȍȕȐȍȔ ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȐ ȗȘȐ ȘȈȉȖȚȍ ș ȍȌȐȕșȚȊȍȕȕȣȔ ȖȚȒȓȐȒȖȔ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȣ, ȏȈȕȧȚȖȑ ȈȕȈȓȐȚȐȒ ȐȓȐ ȥȒșȗȍȘȐȔȍȕȚȈȚȖȘ ȒȘȐȟȈȚ “ȥȊȘȐȒȈ, ȥȚȖ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȍ!”, ȒȈȒ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȌȍȔȖȕșȚȘȐȘțȍȚ ȘȈȊȕȖȊȍșȐȍ ȐȓȐ țșȚȖȑȟȐȊȣȑ ȞȐȒȓ, ȉȍȏ ȎȍȓȈȕȐȧ ȊȕȐȔȈȚȍȓȤȕȖ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȤ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣ ȗȘȐ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȣȝ ȕȈȟȈȓȤȕȣȝ țșȓȖȊȐȧȝ»2. ǯȌȍșȤ ǴȈȑȒȓ ǺȖȔșȖȕ (Michael Thompson) Ȑ ǩȘȦș ǹȚȦȈȘȚ (Bruce Stewart) ȋȖȊȖȘȧȚ Ȗ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȐ ȜȐȏȐȟȍșȒȐȝ șȐșȚȍȔ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖ ȗȘȖȡȍ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȝ Ȑ, ȚȍȔ ȉȖȓȍȍ, ȊȖȑȕ. ǺȍȔ ȕȍ Ȕȍȕȍȍ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȍ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȣ ȌȖ șȐȝ ȗȖȘ ȖșȚȈȦȚșȧ ȗȘȍȊȈȓȐȘțȦȡȐȔȐ ȗȘȐ ȗȖșȚȘȖȍȕȐȐ ȔȖȌȍȓȍȑ ȉȖȍȊȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ3. ǶȌȕȈȒȖ ȊȖȑȕȈ ȌȈȎȍ ȕȍ ȠȈȝȔȈȚȣ, Ȑ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒ ȐȋȘȈȍȚ ȕȍ ȗȖ ȚȍȔ Ȏȍ ȗȘȈȊȐȓȈȔ, ȟȚȖ Ȑ Ȋȣ. ǿȚȖȉȣ ȗȖȉȍȌȐȚȤ, Ȗȕ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȐȏȔȍȕȧȚȤ Ȑȝ, ȟȚȖ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȌȖȗȖȓȕȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȔ ȐșȚȖȟȕȐȒȖȔ ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȖșȚȐ, ȕȍȗȘȍȘȣȊȕȖȋȖ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘȈ ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȑ ȌȍȓȈȍȚ ȍȍ șȚȘțȒȚțȘȕȖ ȕȍșȚȈȉȐȓȤȕȖȑ4.

2.5.5 ǺȍȖȘȐȧ șȓȖȎȕȣȝ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ Ȑ ȒȖȕȚȐȕțțȔ ȊȖȑȕȣ. ǪȖȑȕȈ șȖȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊțȍȚ ȗȘȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐ ȓȦȉȖȑ ȐȕȚȍȘȗȘȍȚȈȞȐȐ ȚȍȘȔȐȕȈ «șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȤ», Ȑ țȎȍ ț DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȈ ȔȖȎȕȖ ȊșȚȘȍȚȐȚȤ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȍ, ȗȖȓȕȖșȚȤȦ ȊȗȐșȣȊȈȦȡȍȍșȧ Ȋ șȓȖȎȕȖȍ ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȍ Ȑ ȕȈțȒț șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ. «ǪȖȍȕȕȈȧ ȔȈȠȐȕȈ – ȈȘȔȐȧ Ȑ Ȋșȍ, ȟȚȖ Ȓ ȕȍȑ ȖȚȕȖșȐȚșȧ, – Ȋ ȖșȕȖȊȍ șȊȖȍȑ ȟȘȍȏȊȣȟȈȑȕȖ ȗȘȖșȚȈ, Ȑ ȗȖȚȖȔț ȒȈȎȍȚșȧ, ȟȚȖ ȍȦ ȓȍȋȒȖ țȗȘȈȊȓȧȚȤ. ǵȖ ȊșȗȖȔȕȐȔ, ȟȚȖ ȕȐ ȖȌȕȈ Ȑȏ ȍȍ ȟȈșȚȍȑ ȕȍ șȌȍȓȈȕȈ Ȑȏ ȞȍȓȖȋȖ ȒțșȒȈ; Ȋșȍ ȘȍȠȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ șȖșȚȈȊȓȍȕȖ Ȑȏ ȖȚȌȍȓȤȕȣȝ ȐȕȌȐȊȐȌȖȊ, Ȑȏ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȒȈȎȌȣȑ ȐșȗȣȚȣȊȈȍȚ ȚȘȍȕȐȍ ȗȖ ȊșȍȔ ȕȈȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧȔ. <…> ǩȈȚȈȓȤȖȕ șȖșȚȖȐȚ Ȑȏ ȐȕȌȐȊȐ-

1 Clausewitz, On War, p. 112.

2 Thompson, J. M. T. and H. B. Stewart. Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos: Geometrical Methods for Engineers and Scientists. New York: John Wiley & Sons. Ltd, 1986, p. xiii.

3 Battilega, John and Judith K. Grange Models, Data, and War: A Critique of the Foundation for Defense Analyses. Washington, DC: U.S. General Accounting Office, 1980.

4 Beyerchen, Clausewitz, Nonlinearity and the Unpredictability of War.

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ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȌȖȊ, ȒȈȎȌȣȑ Ȑȏ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȐȔȍȍȚ ȠȈȕș ȏȈȌȍȘȎȈȚȤ ȕȖȘȔȈȓȤȕȣȑ ȝȖȌ șȖȉȣȚȐȑ, ȐȓȐ ȟȚȖ-ȚȖ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȏȈșȚȈȊȐȚȤ Ȑȝ ȐȌȚȐ ȕȍȗȘȈȊȐȓȤȕȖ»1. ǺȍȔ șȈȔȣȔ ȈȘȔȐȧ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȊȐȌȍ ȐȍȘȈȘȝȐȐ șȓȖȎȕȣȝ ȘȈșȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȣȝ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ ȊșȚțȗȈȍȚ Ȋ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȉȖȘșȚȊȖ ș ȈȘȔȐȍȑ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ. ǶȚ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȝ ȊȖȐȕșȒȐȝ ȜȖȘȔȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȑ ȌȖ ȖȚȌȍȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȉȖȑȞȈ ȊȖȑȕȈ șȖșȚȖȐȚ Ȑȏ ȈȋȍȕȚȖȊ, ȖȉȓȈȌȈȦȡȐȝ șȗȖșȖȉȕȖșȚȤȦ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ șȊȖȍ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ Ȓ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧȔ Ȋ ȖȒȘțȎȈȦȡȍȑ șȘȍȌȍ, Ȋ șȈȔȐȝ ȈȋȍȕȚȈȝ, Ȑȝ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȐ Ȑ ȗȘ.

ǰȔȍȍȚșȧ ȘȧȌ ȗȘȐȟȐȕ, ȗȖȟȍȔț ȘȈșșȔȖȚȘȍȕȐȍ ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ șȓȖȎȕȖȑ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȊȕȖȊȤ șȚȈȓȖ ȈȒȚțȈȓȤȕȣȔ. Ǫ ȗȍȘȊțȦ ȖȟȍȘȍȌȤ, ȥȚȖ șȊȧȏȈȕȖ ș ȊȖȏȘȖșȠȍȑ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȤȦ șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȝ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȖȊ Ȑ șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȝ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȑ. ǸȈșȠȐȘȧȧ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ, ȕȖȊȣȍ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȐ ȖȌȕȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȖ țȊȍȓȐȟȐȊȈȦȚ ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȖ ȗȈȘȈȔȍȚȘȖȊ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȔȐ ȌȖȓȎȍȕ ȖȗȍȘȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ Ȑ țȟȐȚȣȊȈȚȤ șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȑ. DzȘȖȔȍ ȚȖȋȖ, Ȋ ȕȈșȚȖȧȡȍȍ ȊȘȍȔȧ ȗȖȧȊȐȓȈșȤ ȚȍȖȘȍȚȐȟȍșȒȈȧ ȉȈȏȈ Ȋ ȊȐȌȍ ȕȈțȒȐ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȡȈȧ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȈȚȣȊȈȚȤ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔț șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȊȖȑȕȣ. ǰȔȍȦȡȐȍșȧ ȚȍȖȘȍȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȒȐ Ȑ ȖȗȣȚ ȐȏțȟȍȕȐȧ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȖȊ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȚ țȚȊȍȘȎȌȈȚȤ, ȟȚȖ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȤ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȕȍȖȚȢȍȔȓȍȔȣȔ ȈȚȘȐȉțȚȖȔ ȊȖȑȕȣ, Ȑ ȗȖȕȧȚȐȍ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȌȖȓȎȕȖ ȉȣȚȤ ȊȒȓȦȟȍȕȖ Ȋ ȊȖȍȕȕțȦ șȚȘțȒȚțȘț, ȌȖȒȚȘȐȕț Ȑ ȒțȓȤȚțȘț2. ǵȐȒȖȓȓș Ȑ ǺȈȋȈȘȍȊ, ȗȘȖȊȖȌȧȡȐȍ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȕȐȍ Ȋ ȖȉȓȈșȚȐ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȐ ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȗȘȐȠȓȐ Ȓ ȊȣȊȖȌț, ȟȚȖ ȊȖȑȕȈ ȌȖȓȎȕȈ ȉȣȚȤ ȖȚȕȍșȍȕȈ Ȓ ȝȈȖȚȐȟȍșȒȐȔ șȐșȚȍȔȈȔ. ǷȘȐ ȥȚȖȔ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȧȚșȧ șȓȍȌțȦȡȐȍ ȌȖȊȖȌȣ:

x ȗȘȐȕȧȚȐȍ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȑ – ȕȍȖȚȢȍȔȓȍȔȈȧ ȟȈșȚȤ ȊȖȑȕȣ – ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȝȈȖȚȐȟȍșȒȐȔ;

x ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȤ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȣȔ țșȓȖȊȐȍȔ ȝȈȖȚȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ, ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȍșȚȍșȚȊȍȕȕȣȔ șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍȔ ȚȘȍȕȐȧ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȈ;

x ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȒȖȔȗȤȦȚȍȘȕȣȍ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȑ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ ȋȖȕȒȐ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȐȑ ȌȍȔȖȕșȚȘȐȘțȦȚ ȝȈȖȚȐȟȍșȒȖȍ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ;

x ȗȘȍȌȣȌțȡȐȍ ȘȈȉȖȚȣ ȌȈȕȕȣȝ ȈȊȚȖȘȖȊ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȧȓȐ ȘȧȌ ȚȍșȚȖȊ ȕȈ ȝȈȖȚȐȟȕȖșȚȤ Ȓ ȐșȚȖȘȐȟȍșȒȐȔ ȌȈȕȕȣȔ, ȒȈșȈȦȡȐȝșȧ ȊȖȑȕȣ. ǺȍșȚȣ ȗȖȒȈȏȈȓȐ, ȟȚȖ ȊȖȑȕȈ ȝȈȖȚȐȟȕȈ ȕȈ ȋȍȖșȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȔ, șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȔ Ȑ ȖȗȍȘȈȚȐȊȕȖȔ țȘȖȊȕȧȝ3.

ǪȖȑȕȈ ȖȉȓȈȌȈȍȚ ȊșȍȔȐ ȈȚȘȐȉțȚȈȔȐ șȓȖȎȕȖȑ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȣ, ȖȉșțȎȌȍȕȕȣȔȐ ȘȈȕȍȍ, ȊȒȓȦȟȈȧ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȤ. ǷȖȔȐȔȖ Ȋșȍȝ ȗȘȖȟȐȝ ȜȈȒȚȖȘȖȊ, ȕȍȓȐ-

1 Clausewitz, On War, pȘ. 119-120.

2 Bar-Yam, Yanner. Complexity of Military Conflict: Multiscale Complex Systems Analysis of Littoral Warfare, Multiscale Representation Phase II, Task 2: Multiscale Analysis of Littoral Warfare. Report to Chief of Naval Operations Strategic Studies Group, April 21, 2003, pp. 1-2. 12 January 2011. http://www.necsi.edu/projects/yaneer/ SSG_NECSI_3_Litt.pdf.

3 Nicholls, What Does Chaos Theory Mean for Warfare?

132

ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȕȍȑȕȈȧ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȒȈ Ȑ ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȖșȚȤ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍȔ ȍȍ ȘȈșȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȖșȚȐ. ǺȍȖȘȍȚȐȒ-ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐșȚ ǼȘȐȌȘȐȝ ǽȈȑȍȒ (Friedrich Hayek) ȊȊȍȓ Ȋ ȖȉȖȘȖȚ ȗȖȕȧȚȐȍ «ȘȈșȚȧȕțȚȣȑ ȗȖȘȧȌȖȒ» Ȍȓȧ ȖȗȐșȈȕȐȧ ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȒȐ, ȕȈȗȘȈȊȓȧȍȔȖȑ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧȔȐ ȐȕȌȐȊȐȌțȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȈȋȍȕȚȖȊ. ǶȌȕȈȒȖ ȥȚȖȚ ȚȍȘȔȐȕ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕ Ȑ Ȍȓȧ ȖȗȐșȈȕȐȧ ȊȖȑȕȣ. ǪȖȑȕȈ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȘȈșȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȖȑ, Ȑ ȍȍ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȈ ȕȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȈȌȍȒȊȈȚȕȖ ȖȗȐșȈȕȈ ȗȘȐ ȗȖȔȖȡȐ ȗȘȐȕȞȐȗȖȊ Ȑ ȔȖȌȍȓȍȑ, ȐȋȕȖȘȐȘțȦȡȐȝ ȌȈȕȕȣȑ ȜȈȒȚ1.

ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, ȊȖȑȕȈ – ȥȚȖ șȓȖȎȕȈȧ șȐșȚȍȔȈ, șȖșȚȖȧȡȈȧ Ȑȏ ȔȕȖȎȍșȚȊȈ ȘȈșȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȣȝ ȊȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȍ ȈȋȍȕȚȖȊ ȐȖȉȓȈȌȈȦȡȈȧșȗȖșȖȉȕȖșȚȤȦ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȘȖȊȈȚȤșȧ Ȓ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧȔ ȒȈȒ ȊȕțȚȘȐ șȍȉȧ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ Ȋ ȊȖ ȊȕȍȠȕȍȑ șȘȍȌȍ. ǨȌȈȗȚȈȞȐȧ ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȐȚ ȕȈ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȕȍȗȖȓȕȖȑ Ȑ ȟȈșȚȐȟȕȖȑ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȐ, ȚȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȌȈȎȍ ȚȍȖȘȍȚȐȟȍșȒȐ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȚȤ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȍȕȕȖ-ȊȘȍȔȍȕȕțȦ ȌȖșȚțȗȕȖșȚȤ ȒȘȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐ ȊȈȎȕȖȑ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȐ Ȋ ȒȖȕȒȘȍȚȕȖȑ ȚȖȟȒȍ ȒȖȕȚȐȕțțȔȈ ȊȖȑȕȣ. ȅȚȖ ȖȏȕȈȟȈȍȚ, ȟȚȖ Ȍȓȧ ȖȗȐșȈȕȐȧ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕ Ȑ ȌȘțȋȖȑ ȚȍȘȔȐȕ ǽȈȑȍȒȈ – «șțȡȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖ ȌȐșȗȍȘșȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȈȧ (ȘȈșȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȈȧ)» (essentially dispersed) ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȧ, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȡȐȑ țȟȍșȚȤ ȕȍ ȗȖȌȌȈȦȡȐȍșȧ ȐșȒȓȦȟȍȕȐȦ ȐȓȐ ȖȉȖȉȡȍȕȐȦ ȐȕȌȐȊȐȌțȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘȐșȚȐȒȐ ȈȋȍȕȚȖȊ (ȒȖȔȈȕȌȐȘȖȊ Ȑ ȉȖȑȞȖȊ), ȊȖȊȓȍȟȍȕȕȣȝ Ȋ ȉȖȍȊȣȍ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ: «ȅȚȖ ȘȈșȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȖȍ ȏȕȈȕȐȍ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ șțȡȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖ ȘȈșȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȣȔ Ȑ ȕȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ șȒȖȕȞȍȕȚȘȐȘȖȊȈȕȖ Ȑ ȗȍȘȍȌȈȕȖ ȘțȒȖȊȖȌșȚȊț ș ȞȍȓȤȦ ȖȉȌțȔȈȕȕȖȋȖ șȖȏȌȈȕȐȧ ȗȖȘȧȌȒȈ. <…> ǩȖȓȤȠȈȧ ȟȈșȚȤ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ ȖȉȓȈȌȈȍȚ ȓȐȟȕȖșȚȤ, ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȈ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȍȦ ȗȘȐ ȗȘȐȕȧȚȐȐ șȖȉșȚȊȍȕȕȣȝ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȑ. ǵȐȒȚȖ ȕȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȗȍȘȍȌȈȚȤ ȌȘțȋȖȔț Ȋșȍ, ȟȚȖ ȏȕȈȍȚ Ȗȕ, ȚȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȉȖȓȤȠȈȧ ȟȈșȚȤ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȍȔȖȑ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȐ ȐȏȊȓȍȒȈȍȚșȧ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ Ȋ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȍ șȖșȚȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ ȗȓȈȕȈ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ Ȑ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ȊȖșȚȘȍȉȖȊȈȕȕȖȑ, ȒȖȋȌȈ Ȗȕ ȘȈȉȖȚȈȍȚ ȕȈȌ ȟȈșȚȕȖȑ ȏȈȌȈȟȍȑ Ȑ Ȋ țșȓȖȊȐȧȝ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝȖȕ ȕȈȝȖȌȐȚșȈȔȖȋȖșȍȉȧ»2.

Dz ȈȕȈȓȖȋȐȟȕȣȔ ȊȣȊȖȌȈȔ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȍȕȕȖ-ȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȖȑ ȕȍȌȖșȚțȗȕȖșȚȐ ȒȘȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐ ȊȈȎȕȖȑ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȐ ȕȈ ȗȖȓȍ ȉȖȧ Ȑ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȐșȒȓȦȟȍȕȐȧ ȜȈȒȚȖȘȈ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȟȍșȒȖȑ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȣ ȗȘȐȝȖȌȐȚ Ȑ ǸȖȉȍȘȚȈ ǽȖȓșȚȍȚȚȍȘ (Roberta Wohlstetter)3. DzȈȒ șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍ, ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȤ ȌȖȓȎȍȕ șȜȖȒțșȐȘȖȊȈȚȤșȧ ȕȈ «ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȕȐȐ ȗȘȐȕȞȐȗȈ» (ǽȈȑȍȒ), ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȊȍȘȖȧȚȕȖșȚȍȑ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ, ȕȖ ȕȍ ȉȖȓȍȍ. ǶȌȕȈȒȖ ȌȈȎȍ ȗȘȐ ȥȚȖȔ ȊșȍȋȌȈ ȐȔȍȍȚșȧ ȊȍȘȖȧȚȕȖșȚȤ ȚȖȋȖ, ȟȚȖ șȐșȚȍȔȈ ȗȘȖȌȍȔȖȕșȚȘȐȘțȍȚ șȖȊȍȘȠȍȕȕȖ ȕȍȖȎȐȌȈȕȕȖȍ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ.

ǪȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ Ȑ ȒȖȕȚȍȒșȚ (ȖȚȒȘȣȚȖșȚȤ), ȐȋȘȈ șȓțȟȈȧ Ȑ ȕȍȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȖșȚȤ ȋȘȈȕȐȞ, ȘȈșȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȖșȚȤ Ȑ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȍȕȕȖ-ȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȈȧ ȕȍȌȖșȚțȗȕȖșȚȤ ȒȘȐȚȐ-

1 Hayek, Friedrich August von. The Collected Works of F. A. Hayek. Bartley III W. W. (ed.), Vol. 1, The Fatal Conceit: The Errors of Socialism. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1988, p. 14.

2 Ibid, p. 77.

3 Wohlstetter, Roberta. Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1962, pp. 392, 397, 354-355.

133

ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȟȍșȒȐ ȊȈȎȕȖȑ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȐ, ȊȏȈȐȔȖșȊȧȏȤ Ȑ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȊȓȐȧȕȐȍ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȖȊ Ȑ ȥȜȜȍȒȚ ȖȉȘȈȚȕȣȝ șȊȧȏȍȑ – Ȋșȍ ȥȚȖ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚ Ȓ ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȖșȚȐ ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȑ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȍȍ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȧ Ȑ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ Ȋ ȚȍȘȔȐȕȈȝ ȔȍȚȈȜȖȘȣ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȐ1. ǪȖȍȕȕȣȑ ȚȍȖȘȍȚȐȒ ǻȐȓȤȧȔ ǨȘȚțȘ (William Arthur) șȘȈȊȕȐȓ ȊȖȑȕț ș ȒȈȓȍȑȌȖșȒȖȗȖȔ, Ȋ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȔ ȖȌȕȐ Ȑ Țȍ Ȏȍ ȟȈșȚȐ ș ȒȈȎȌȣȔ ȗȖȊȖȘȖȚȖȔ Ȑ Ȋ ȒȈȎȌȣȑ ȕȖȊȣȑ ȔȖȔȍȕȚ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ ȖȉȘȈȏțȦȚ șȖȊȍȘȠȍȕȕȖ ȕȖȊȣȍ ȗȈȚȚȍȘȕȣ, ȗȘȐȟȍȔ, Ȋ ȖȚȓȐȟȐȍ ȖȚ ȔȍȝȈȕȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȒȈȓȍȑȌȖșȒȖȗȈ, ȈȋȍȕȚȣ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȒȈȓȍȑȌȖșȒȖȗȈ Ȓ ȚȖȔț Ȏȍ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȣ Ȑ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊțȦȚ ȌȘțȋ ș ȌȘțȋȖȔ. ȅȚȖ ȌȍȓȈȍȚ ȕȍȘȍȈȓȤȕȣȔ Ȑ ȒȖȕȚȘȗȘȖȌțȒȚȐȊȕȣȔ ȚȘȍȉȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȗȖȐșȒȈ ȖȗȚȐȔȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȑ ȕȈ ȊȖȑȕȍ, Ȑ ȘȍȟȤ ȌȖȓȎȕȈ ȐȌȚȐ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ Ȗ ȘȈȉȖȚȈȦȡȐȝ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧȝ2. ǪȣȠȍșȒȈȏȈȕȕȖȍ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȍȚ țȚȊȍȘȎȌȈȚȤ, ȟȚȖ ȚȖȚ, ȒȚȖ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȍȚ ȊȖȑȕț Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ șȓȖȎȕȖȑ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȣ, ȐȔȍȍȚ ȉȖȓȤȠȍ ȠȈȕșȖȊ ȕȈ țșȗȍȝ Ȋ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȔ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȉȖȘșȚȊȍ, ȕȍȎȍȓȐ ȚȖȚ, ȒȚȖ ȊȐȌȐȚ Ȋ ȊȖȑȕȍ ȗȘȖȏȘȈȟȕțȦ, ȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒțȦ ȕȤȦȚȖȕȖȊșȒțȦ ȒȖȕșȚȘțȒȞȐȦ3. ǸȍȠȈȧ ȏȈȌȈȟț șȖȝȘȈȕȍȕȐȧ șȊȖȐȝ șȐȓ Ȑ țȕȐȟȚȖȎȍȕȐȧ șȐȓ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ, ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȕȣȍ șȐȓȣ Ȋ ȞȍȓȖȔ șȚȘȍȔȧȚșȧ ȊȍșȚȐ șȍȉȧ ȒȈȒ «șȈȔȖȖȘȋȈȕȐȏțȦȡȈȧșȧ șȐșȚȍȔȈ»4.

ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, ȊȖȑȕȈ ȌȖȓȎȕȈ ȉȣȚȤ ȖȚȕȍșȍȕȈ Ȓ șȓȖȎȕȣȔ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȣȔ șȐșȚȍȔȈȔ, ȕȍȖȚȢȍȔȓȍȔȣȔȐ ȈȚȘȐȉțȚȈȔȐ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȖȚȒȘȣȚȖșȚȤ, ȟțȊșȚȊȐȚȍȓȤȕȖșȚȤ Ȓ ȕȈȟȈȓȤȕȣȔ țșȓȖȊȐȧȔ, ȘȈșȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȖșȚȤ, ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȍȕȕȖ-ȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȈȧ ȕȍȌȖșȚțȗȕȖșȚȤ ȒȘȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐ ȊȈȎȕȖȑ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȐ, ȊȏȈȐȔȖșȊȧȏȤ Ȑ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȊȓȐȧȕȐȍ ȈȋȍȕȚȖȊ ȗȖșȘȍȌșȚȊȖȔ șȍȚȐ ȊȏȈȐȔȖșȊȧȏȍȑ, ȉȖȓȤȠȖȍ ȟȐșȓȖ ȘȈȏȕȖȖȉȘȈȏȕȣȝ ȖȉȘȈȚȕȣȝ șȊȧȏȍȑ. DzȈȒ șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍ, ȊȖȑȕȈ ȌȍȔȖȕșȚȘȐȘțȍȚ ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȖȍ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ, ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕțȦ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȒț Ȑ șȗȖșȖȉȕȖșȚȤ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȘȖȊȈȚȤșȧ Ȓ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧȔ ȒȈȒ Ȋ șȈȔȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȍ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ Ȋ ȖȒȘțȎȈȦȡȍȑ șȘȍȌȍ, Ȋ ȚȖȔ ȟȐșȓȍ Ȑ ȕȈ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȖȊ șȈȔȖȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ. ǼȍȕȖȔȍȕ ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȖșȚȐ șȓȖȎȕȣȝ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȣȑ șȐșȚȍȔ ȝȖȘȖȠȖ ȊȐȌȍȕ ȕȈ ȗȘȐȔȍȘȍ ȐșȚȖȘȐȐ ȊȖȑȕ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ țȊȍȘȍȕȕȖ Ȑ ȚȖȟȕȖ ȖȉȢȧșȕȐȚȤ, ȗȖȟȍȔț ȐȔȍȕȕȖ Ȋ ȥȚȐȝ țșȓȖȊȐȧȝ Ȑ ȗȘȐ ȚȈȒȖȔ țȘȖȊȕȍ ȉȖȍȊȣȝ ȗȖȚȍȘȤ ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȐȓ ȕȈȌȓȖȔ ȊȖȓȐ ȖȌȕȖȑ Ȑȏ ȊȖȦȦȡȐȝ șȚȖȘȖȕ, ȐșȒȓȦȟȈȦȡȐȑ ȌȈȓȤȕȍȑȠȍȍ șȖȗȘȖȚȐȊȓȍȕȐȍ Ȑ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȧȡȐȑ Ȓ ȒȖȓȓȈȗșț. Ǭȓȧ ȒȈȎȌȖȋȖ Ȑȏ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȖȊ Ȋ ȐșȚȖȘȐȐ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȟȍșȚȊȈȗȖȘȖȋȕȈȌȓȖȔȈȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ țȕȐȒȈȓȤȕȣȔ ȐșȊȖȐȔ.

Ǫ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ ȌȍȔȖȕșȚȘȈȞȐȐ ȔȖȎȕȖ ȗȘȐȊȍșȚȐ ȚȘȐ ȐșȚȖȘȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȗȘȐȔȍȘȈ. ǷȍȘȊȣȑ – ȉȓȐȞȒȘȐȋ 1940 ȋȖȌȈ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȊȖȓȧ ǼȘȈȕȞȐȐ Ȓ ȉȖȘȤȉȍ ȖȒȈȏȈȓȈșȤ șȓȈȉȖȑ ȗȘȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐ ȕȈ Ȋșȍȝ țȘȖȊȕȧȝ ȊȖȍȕȕȖ-ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȘțȒȖȊȖȌșȚȊȈ șȚȘȈȕȣ. DzȈȒ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚ, ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȖȊȈȕȕȖȍ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȍ șȖȗȘȖȚȐȊȓȍȕȐȍ ȉȣȓȖ ȖȟȍȕȤ ȉȣșȚȘȖ șȓȖȔȓȍȕȖ, ȝȖȚȧ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ Ȑ ȔȈȚȍȘȐȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȘȍșțȘșȣ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȓȐ ȗȘȖȌȖȓȎȈȚȤ

1 Beyerchen, Clausewitz, Nonlinearity and the Unpredictability of War. 2 Adams, The Real Military Revolution, pp. 54-65.

3 Bar-Yam, Complexity of Military Conflict, p. 1.

4 Wheatley, Leadership and the New Science, p. 80.

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ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

șȖȗȘȖȚȐȊȓȍȕȐȍ1. ǩȖȓȍȍ ȋȓțȉȖȒȐȑ ȊȏȋȓȧȌ ȕȈ ȜȘȈȕȞțȏșȒȐȑ ȗȘȐȔȍȘ ȗȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚ, ȟȚȖ ȉȓȐȞȒȘȐȋ ȌȖșȚȐȋ țșȗȍȝȈ Ȋ ȚȖȔ ȟȐșȓȍ ȉȓȈȋȖȌȈȘȧ ȗșȐȝȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȖȑ șȓȈȉȖșȚȐ ȊȣșȠȍȋȖ ȘțȒȖȊȖȌșȚȊȈ, ȋȓțȉȖȒȐȔ ȚȘȍȡȐȕȈȔ ȊȖ ȜȘȈȕȞțȏșȒȖȔ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȍ Ȑ ȘȈșȒȖȓȈȔ, ȉȍȘțȡȐȔ șȊȖȍ ȕȈȟȈȓȖ șȖ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȊȈȕȐȧ ǺȘȍȚȤȍȑ ȘȍșȗțȉȓȐȒȐ Ȋ 1872ȋ.2 ǶȌȕȈȒȖ ȊȖȓȧ ȕȈȘȖȌȈ ȕȍ ȉȣȓȈ ȖȒȖȕȟȈȚȍȓȤȕȖ șȓȖȔȓȍȕȈ, Ȑ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȖ ȉȣȓȖ ȋȖȚȖȊȖ ȗȘȖȌȖȓȎȐȚȤ ȉȖȘȤȉț, ȚȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȖșȚȈȊȈȓȈșȤ ȕȈȌȍȎȌȈ ȗȍȘȍȓȖȔȐȚȤ șȐȚțȈȞȐȦ Ȑ ȌȖșȚȐȟȤ ȗȖȉȍȌȣ, Ȗ ȟȍȔ șȊȐȌȍȚȍȓȤșȚȊțȍȚ ȗȖșȓȍȌȖȊȈȊȠȍȍ ȏȈ ȒȈȗȐȚțȓȧȞȐȍȑ ȌȊȐȎȍȕȐȍ ǹȖȗȘȖȚȐȊȓȍȕȐȧ.

ǪȚȖȘȖȑ ȗȘȐȔȍȘ șȊȧȏȈȕ ș ǷȍȘȊȖȑ ȔȐȘȖȊȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȖȑ. ǹȚȘȈȕȣ ǹȖȦȏȈ ȞȍȕȚȘȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȌȍȘȎȈȊ, Ȋ ȖșȖȉȍȕȕȖșȚȐ ǨȊșȚȘȖ-ǪȍȕȋȘȐȧ Ȑ ǶșȔȈȕșȒȈȧ ȐȔȗȍȘȐȧ, ȊȣșȚȖȧȓȐ ȟȍȚȣȘȍ ȚȧȎȍȓȣȝ ȋȖȌȈ, ȕȍșȔȖȚȘȧ ȕȈ ȖȋȘȖȔȕȣȍ ȗȖȚȍȘȐ. ǶȌȕȈȒȖ Ȓ ȓȍȚț 1918ȋ. ȊȖȓȧ Ȓ ȗȖȉȍȌȍ ȖȒȈȏȈȓȈșȤ ȕȈșȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȐșȚȖȡȍȕȕȖȑ, ȟȚȖ ȗȘȖȐȏȖȠȍȓ ȕȈȌȓȖȔ, Ȑ șȖȗȘȖȚȐȊȓȍȕȐȍ ȗȘȍȒȘȈȚȐȓȖșȤ ȌȖ ȚȖȋȖ, ȒȈȒ șȚȘȈȕȣ ǹȖȦȏȈ ȉȣȓȐ ȏȈȊȖȍȊȈȕȣ ǨȕȚȈȕȚȖȑ. ǷȘȐȟȍȔ ȒȖȓȓȈȗș ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȐȓ ȕȈȜȖȕȍȕȈȓȐȟȐȧȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȖȊȈȕȕȣȝȊȖȍȕȕȣȝȗȖȓȍȊȣȝșȐȓ.

ǰ ȚȘȍȚȐȑ șȓțȟȈȑ – ȗȘȐȔȍȘ ǫȍȘȔȈȕȐȐ Ȑ ȇȗȖȕȐȐ ȊȖ ǪȚȖȘȖȑ ȔȐȘȖȊȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȍ, ȒȖȋȌȈ, ȕȍșȔȖȚȘȧ ȕȈ ȖȋȘȖȔȕȣȍ ȗȖȚȍȘȐ, ȗȘȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐ ȗȖȓȕȖȍ țȕȐȟȚȖȎȍȕȐȍ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȗȖȚȍȕȞȐȈȓȈ, Ȗȉȍ șȚȘȈȕȣ ȌȖ ȗȖșȓȍȌȕȍȋȖ ȗȘȖȌȖȓȎȈȓȐ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȚȤ ȖȎȍșȚȖȟȍȕȕȖȍ șȖȗȘȖȚȐȊȓȍȕȐȍ3. ǰ Ȋ ȚȖ Ȏȍ ȊȘȍȔȧ ȗȖșȓȍ ȗȖȘȈȎȍȕȐȧ Ȋ ȥȚȐȝ șȚȘȈȕȈȝ ȗȘȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐ ȖȚșțȚșȚȊȖȊȈȓȖ șȖȗȘȖȚȐȊȓȍȕȐȍ, ȚȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȕȍ ȉȣȓȖ ȕȈȌȍȎȌȣ, ȟȚȖ Ȋ ȉȓȐȎȈȑȠȍȑ ȗȍȘșȗȍȒȚȐȊȍ ȔȖȎȕȖ ȐȏȔȍȕȐȚȤ șȓȖȎȐȊȠțȦșȧ șȐȚțȈȞȐȦ4. ǬȈȕȕȣȍ ȗȘȐȔȍȘȣ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȚ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚȤ Ȗ ȒȖȕȚȐȕțțȔȍ ȊȖȑȕ, Ȋ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȔ Țȍ ȐȓȐ Ȑȕȣȍ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȐ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȦȚșȧ Ȋ ȊȐȌȍ ȚȖȟȒȐ. ǵȈ ȖȌȕȖȔ ȒȘȈȦ ȌȈȕȕȖȋȖ ȒȖȕȚȐȕțțȔȈ ȕȈȝȖȌȧȚșȧ șȓțȟȈȐ, ȈȕȈȓȖȋȐȟȕȣȍ ǬȈȕȐȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ ȗȘȐȕȧȓȈ ȋȍȘȔȈȕșȒțȦ ȖȒȒțȗȈȞȐȦ Ȋ 1940 ȋȖȌț ȉȍȏ ȖȒȈȏȈȕȐȧ ȒȈȒȖȋȖ-ȓȐȉȖ șȖȗȘȖȚȐȊȓȍȕȐȧ, ȕȈ ȌȘțȋȖȔ – ȖȎȍșȚȖȟȍȕȕȖȍ Ȑ ȖȉȘȍȟȍȕȕȖȍ șȖȗȘȖȚȐȊȓȍȕȐȍ ȕȍȔȞȍȊ Ȋ ǩȍȘȓȐȕȍ, ȧȗȖȕȞȍȊ Ȋ ǶȒȐȕȈȊȍ Ȋ 1945ȋ.

ǵȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȖșȚȤ șȓȖȎȕȣȝ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ ȌȍȓȈȍȚ țȔȍșȚȕȣȔ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȚȈȒȐȝ ȚȍȘȔȐȕȖȊ, ȒȈȒ ȐȕȚțȐȞȐȧ, ȗȘȐ ȗȖȗȣȚȒȈȝ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȚȤ ȍȍ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ. ǸȈȏȊȐȚȐȍ șȓȖȎȕȖȑ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȗȖȘȖȑ ȊȣȋȓȧȌȐȚ ȗȘȖșȚȖ ȔȐșȚȐȟȍșȒȐȔ, Ȑ Ȗȉ ȥȚȖȔ, Ȋ ȟȈșȚȕȖșȚȐ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚ ǴȈȘȐș ǴȈȒǫȘȈȉȉ (Maris McCrabb)5. ǷȘȐ ȥȚȖȔ șȚȈȕȖȊȧȚșȧ ȕȍȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȣȔȐ ȗȘȐȟȐȕȕȖ-șȓȍȌșȚȊȍȕȕȣȔȐ șȊȧȏȐ ȔȍȎȌț șȚȐ-

1 DzȖ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ ȒȈȗȐȚțȓȧȞȐȐ ȜȘȈȕȞțȏșȒȖȋȖ ȗȘȈȊȐȚȍȓȤșȚȊȈ ȉȣȓ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȈȕ ȗȓȈȕ, ȗȘȍȌțșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȦȡȐȑ ȗȍȘȍȔȍȡȍȕȐȍ ȞȍȕȚȘȈ ȜȘȈȕȞțȏșȒȖȋȖ șȖȗȘȖȚȐȊȓȍȕȐȧ ȊȔȍșȚȍ ș ȜȘȈȕȞțȏșȒȐȔ ȜȓȖȚȖȔ Ȑ ȚȖȑ ȟȈșȚȤȦ ȈȘȔȐȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘțȦ ȔȖȎȕȖ ȉȣȓȖ ȊȣȊȍȏȚȐ, Ȋ ǹȍȊȍȘȕțȦ ǨȜȘȐȒț, ȋȌȍ țȎȍ ȐȔȍȓȐșȤ ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȣȍ ȜȘȈȕȞțȏșȒȐȍ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȕȣȍ șȐȓȣ. Churchill, Winston S. Their Finest Hour. Second edition, London: Hazell, Watson and Viney, Ltd., 1951. Vol. 2 of Memoirs of The Second World War. 6 vols. 1949-1954.

2 Shirer, William L. The Collapse of the Third Republic: An Inquiry into the Fall of France in 1940. New York: Simon and Schuster, 1969.

3 Smith, Edward. Effects-Based Operations: Applying Network Centric Warfare in Peace, Crisis and War. Washington, DC: Department of Defense Command and Control Research Program (CCRP) Publication Series, 2002, p. 27. 12 January 2011. http://www.dodccrp. org/files/Smith_EBO.PDF.

4 Lee, Ready, J. World War Two: Nation by Nation. London: Arms and Armour, 1995, p. 180.

5 McCrabb, Maris. Explaining “Effects”: A Theory for an Effects-Based Approach to Planning, Executing and Assessing Operations. Ver. 2.0. August 7, 2001. 12 January 2011. <http://www.dtic.mil/jointvision/ideas_concepts/ebo.doc>.

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ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȔțȓȖȔ Ȑ ȘȍȈȒȞȐȧȔȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȔȖȋțȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȒȈȒ ȗȘȧȔȣȔȐ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȕȍȗȘȧȔȣȔȐ, ȖȚȒȘȣȚȣȔȐ, ȕȈȉȓȦȌȈȍȔȣȔȐ Ȑ ȓȈȚȍȕȚȕȣȔȐ. ǵȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ, ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ țȏȕȈȚȤ, ȒȈȒȐȍ ȐȔȍȕȕȖ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȒȖȈȓȐȞȐȖȕȕȣȝ șȐȓ ȊȣȕțȌȐȓȐ ȒȈȗȐȚțȓȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ǴȐȓȖȠȍȊȐȟȈ Ȋ DzȖșȖȊȖ1. ǪȖ Ȋșȍȝ ȗȖȌȖȉȕȣȝ șȓțȟȈȧȝ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖ ȘțȒȖȊȖȌșȚȊȖȊȈȚȤșȧ ȔȈȒșȐȔȖȑ ǨȘȐșȚȖȚȍȓȧ: «ǸȈșșțȎȌȍȕȐȍ ȉțȌȍȚ țȌȖȊȓȍȚȊȖȘȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȔ, ȍșȓȐ țȌȈșȚșȧ ȌȖȉȐȚȤșȧ ȧșȕȖșȚȐ, șȖȖȉȘȈȏȕȖȑ ȗȘȍȌȔȍȚț, ȗȖȌȓȍȎȈȡȍȔț [ȘȈșșȔȖȚȘȍȕȐȦ] <…> ȟȍȓȖȊȍȒț ȖȉȘȈȏȖȊȈȕȕȖȔț șȊȖȑșȚȊȍȕȕȖ ȌȖȉȐȊȈȚȤșȧ ȚȖȟȕȖșȚȐ Ȍȓȧ ȒȈȎȌȖȋȖ ȘȖȌȈ [ȗȘȍȌȔȍȚȖȊ] Ȋ ȚȖȑ șȚȍȗȍȕȐ, Ȋ ȒȈȒȖȑ ȥȚȖ ȌȖȗțșȒȈȍȚ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȈ ȗȘȍȌȔȍȚȈ»2, ȕȈȒȓȈȌȣȊȈȦȡȈȧ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȐȧ ȕȈ ȗȘȖȞȍșș ȐȏțȟȍȕȐȧ, ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȒȐ Ȑ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ ǹǨǹ.

ǯȕȈȕȐȍ ȚȖȋȖ, ȒȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ ȊȍȌȍȚ șȍȉȧ șȐșȚȍȔȈ ȗȘȐ ȐȏȊȍșȚȕȣȝ șȚȐȔțȓȈȝ, ȕȍ ȖȏȕȈȟȈȍȚ, ȟȚȖ ȔȖȎȕȖ ȖȎȐȌȈȚȤ ȈȕȈȓȖȋȐȟȕȣȝ ȘȍȈȒȞȐȑ Ȋ șȝȖȎȍȑ șȐȚțȈȞȐȐ Ȑ Ȋ ȉțȌțȡȍȔ. Ǫșȍ, ȟȚȖ ȔȖȎȕȖ șȌȍȓȈȚȤ, – ȥȚȖ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȐȚȤ ȚȍȖȘȍȚȐȟȍșȒȐ ȉȍșȒȖȕȍȟȕȖ ȔȕȖȎȍșȚȊȖ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣȝ ȘȍȈȒȞȐȑ Ȑ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚȤ Ȗ ȗȖȌȔȕȖȎȍșȚȊȍ ȕȈȐȉȖȓȍȍ ȊȍȘȖȧȚȕȖȋȖ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ3. ǷȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ ȚȖȋȖ, ȟȚȖ ȘȍȟȤ ȐȌȍȚ Ȗ ȊȍȘȖȧȚȕȖșȚȧȝ Ȑ ȒȘȐȚȍȘȐȧȝ, ȕȍ ȗȖȌȌȈȦȡȐȝșȧ ȜȖȘȔȈȓȐȏȈȞȐȐ, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȍȚ ȗȖȕȧȚȤ, ȟȚȖ, ȘȈȉȖȚȈȧ ș ǹǨǹ, ȒȖȘȘȍȒȚȕȍȍ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚȤ ȕȍ Ȗ ȗȘȖȍȒȚȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȐ ȐȓȐ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȕȐȐ ȍȍ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ, ȕȖ ȈȌȈȗȚȈȞȐȐ4. Ǫ ȘȈȉȖȚȍ «ǨȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȖșȚȤ Ȋ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȖȉȖȘȖȕȍ» ǷȖȓ ǬȍȊȐș (Paul Davis), ǬȥȊȐȌ ǫȖȔȗȍȘȚ (David Gompert) Ȑ ǸȐȟȈȘȌ DzțȋȓȍȘ (Richard Kugler) ȗȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȦȚ, ȒȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ ȌȈȕȕȣȑ ȊȣȊȖȌ șȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ȕȈ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȍ ȖȉȖȘȖȕȕȖȋȖ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȕȈ ȊȣșȖȒȖȔ țȘȖȊȕȍ5. ǬȘțȋȐȔ șȊȖȑșȚȊȖȔ ǹǨǹ, ȗȘȐȊȖȌȧȡȐȔ Ȓ ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȖșȚȐ, ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȍȍ «ȕȍțȊȈȎȍȕȐȍ» Ȓ ȐȍȘȈȘȝȐȐ. ǵȍȉȖȓȤȠȐȍ șȖȉȣȚȐȧ ȕȈ ȔȐȒȘȖțȘȖȊȕȍ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȗȖȊȓȐȧȚȤ ȕȈ șȖȉȣȚȐȧ Ȑ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ ȕȈ ȔȈȒȘȖțȘȖȊȕȍ. ǹȗȘȈȊȍȌȓȐȊȖ Ȑ ȖȉȘȈȚȕȖȍ, ȒȖȋȌȈ, ȕȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ, șȓȖȊȈ Ȑ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ ȓȐȌȍȘȖȊ, ȔȐȕțȧ ȊȓȈșȚȕțȦ ȐȍȘȈȘȝȐȦ, ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȦȚ ȕȍȗȖșȘȍȌșȚȊȍȕȕȖȍ ȊȓȐȧȕȐȍ ȕȈ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ ȘȧȌȖȊȖȋȖ șȖșȚȈȊȈ. ǼȖȘȔȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȘȍȈȒȞȐȐ ȕȈ ȉȘȖȠȍȕȕȣȍ ȊȣȏȖȊȣ ȟȍȘȍȏ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȣ ȈȌȈȗȚȈȞȐȐ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȖȗȐșȈȕȖ Ȋ ȚȍȘȔȐȕȈȝ ȖȉțȟȍȕȐȧ Ȑ ȐȕȕȖȊȈȞȐȐ. ǩȈȘȉȈȘȈ ǺȈȟȔȈȕ (Barbara Tuchman) Ȋ ȒȕȐȋȍ «ǴȈȘȠ ȋȓțȗȖșȚȐ» ȌȈȍȚ șȍȘȐȦ ȐșȚȖȘȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȗȘȐȔȍȘȖȊ ȚȖȋȖ, ȒȈȒ ȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȦȡȐȍ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȓȐșȤ ȕȍ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȖȉțȟȈȚȤșȧ Ȑ ȕȍ ȉȣȓȐ ȋȖȚȖȊȣ Ȓ ȐȕȕȖȊȈȞȐȧȔ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȐȓȐ ȉȣ șȗȘȈȊȐȚȤșȧ ș ȐȏȔȍȕȧȦȡȐȔȐșȧ

1 Hosmer, Stephen. The Conflict over Kosovo: Why Milosevic Decided to Settle When He Did. RAND Report MR1351, Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2001. 12 January 2011. http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1351/.

2 Aristotle. Nicomachean Ethics. Chicago, IL: Britannica Great Books. Vol. 8, 1993, p. 339.

3 Smith, Edward A. Complexity, Networking, and Effects-Based Approaches to Operations. Washington, DC: Department of Defense Command and Control Research Program (CCRP) Publication Series, 2006, p. 75. 12 January 2011. http://www.dodccrp. org/files/Smith_Complexity.pdf.

4 Davis, Paul K. Effects-Based Operations: A Grand Challenge for the Analytical Community. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2001, pp. 26-29. 12 January 2011.

http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1477.

5 Davis, Paul K., David Gompert, and Richard Kugler. Adaptiveness in National Defense: The Basis of a New Framework. RAND Report IP-155, Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 1996. 12 January 2011. http://www.rand.org/pubs/ issue_papers/IP155/index.html.

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ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

țșȓȖȊȐȧȔȐ. Ǫ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȍ ȘȍȈȓȐȏȖȊȣȊȈȓȈșȤ șȈȔȖȘȈȏȘțȠȐȚȍȓȤȕȈȧ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȈ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ ȊȣȋȓȧȌȍȓȈ ȒȈȒ ȖȌȕȈ ȉȖȓȤȠȈȧ ȋȓțȗȖșȚȤ1.

ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, ȚȍȖȘȐȧ ǹǨǹ, Ȋȕȍ ȏȈȊȐșȐȔȖșȚȐ ȖȚ ȚȖȋȖ, ȟȚȖ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȍȚșȧ – șȚȘȈȕȈ, ȈȘȔȐȧ ȐȓȐ ȓȐȟȕȖșȚȤ, ȗȘȍȌȓȈȋȈȍȚ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȖȌȐȕ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȣȑ ȗȖȌȝȖȌ, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȡȐȑ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȚȤ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȤ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȗȘȐ șȚȖȓȒȕȖȊȍȕȐȐ ș ȌȘțȋȐȔȐ șȐșȚȍȔȈȔȐ Ȑ ȊȣȏȖȊȈȔȐ șȘȍȌȣȧ: ȉȣȚȤ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ țȟȐȚȤșȧ, ȐȏȊȓȍȒȈȧ țȘȖȒȐ ȒȈȒ Ȑȏ țșȗȍȝȖȊ Ȑ ȗȖȉȍȌ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ Ȑȏ ȕȍțȌȈȟ Ȑ ȗȖȘȈȎȍȕȐȑ, ȒȖȕȊȍȘȚȐȘțȧ ȗȖȓțȟȍȕȕȣȍ ȏȕȈȕȐȧ Ȑ ȖȗȣȚ Ȋ ȐȕȕȖȊȈȞȐȐ. ǺȈȒȈȧ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȖșȚȤ ȗȘȍȌȗȖȓȈȋȈȍȚ ȗȘȐȘȖȎȌȍȕȕțȦ șȗȖșȖȉȕȖșȚȤ ȓȐȟȕȖșȚȐ, ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ țȟȐȚȤșȧ Ȑ, ȟȚȖ ȋȖȘȈȏȌȖ ȊȈȎȕȍȍ, șȊȖȉȖȌț ȐȕȕȖȊȈȞȐȑ, ȚȖ ȍșȚȤ șȗȖșȖȉȕȖșȚȤ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȧȚȤ ȕȖȊȣȍ ȐȌȍȐ.

ǶȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȍ Ȓ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȖșȚȐ ȒȈȒ Ȓ ȧȊȓȍȕȐȦ, ȗȖȓȕȖȔț ȝȈȖșȈ Ȑ ȕȍȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȖșȚȐ, ȒȈȎțȡȐȔȐșȧ ȕȍȗȘȍȖȌȖȓȐȔȣȔȐ Ȍȓȧ ȌȖȓȋȖșȘȖȟȕȖȋȖ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ, șȖȊȗȈȌȈȍȚ ș ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȍȕȐȧȔȐ Ȗ ȊȖȑȕȍ ȊȍȚȍȘȈȕȖȊ. ǶȗȣȚ țȟȈșȚȕȐȒȈ ȉȖȍȊȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚ, ȟȚȖ «Ȋ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȖȔ ȔȐȘȍ» ȕȍ ȗȘȐșțȚșȚȊțȦȚ Ȋșȍ Țȍ șȖȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȧ Ȑ ȏȈȒȖȕȖȔȍȘȕȖșȚȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȝȖȚȧȚ ȍȔț ȕȈȊȧȏȈȚȤ ȠȚȈȉȐșȚȣ Ȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȡȐȒȐ Ȋșȍȝ țȘȖȊȕȍȑ. Ǭȓȧ ȊȍȚȍȘȈȕȈ ȊȖȍȕȕȈȧ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȧ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȈ, ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȈ Ȑ șȓȖȎȕȈ, Ȑ ȗȖȓȍ ȉȖȧ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȍȚ șȖȉȖȑ ȘȈȏȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȑ ȒȖȕȚȘȈșȚ ș ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȣȔ, țȗȘȈȊȓȧȍȔȣȔ Ȑ ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȣȔ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȖȕȕȣȔ ȗȖȓȍȔ șȐȕȚȍȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȔȖȌȍȓȍȑ ȠȚȈȉȐșȚȖȊ. ǰȔȍȕȕȖ șȓȖȎȕȈȧ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȖșȚȤ ȉȖȧ Ȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȌȍȓȈȍȚ ȊȍȚȍȘȈȕȖȊ șȒȍȗȚȐȒȈȔȐ ȖȚȕȖșȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȚȘȈȕșȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȐ Ȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȘȍȊȖȓȦȞȐȐ Ȋ ȞȍȓȖȔ2. ǩȖȍȊȖȑ ȖȗȣȚ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚ ȐȔ, ȟȚȖ ȕȐȒȈȒȐȍ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȐ ȕȍ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȗȘȍȖȌȖȓȍȚȤ ȗȖȓȕȖșȚȤȦ «ȚȘȍȕȐȍ» Ȑ «ȚțȔȈȕ» ȊȖȑȕȣ, Ȉ ȗȖȗȣȚȒȐ ȐȋȕȖȘȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȥȚȐ ȜțȕȌȈȔȍȕȚȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘȐșȚȐȒȐ ȔȖȋțȚ ȐȔȍȚȤ ȜȈȚȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȗȖșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȧ3. Ǫ ȒȖȕȍȟȕȖȔ șȟȍȚȍ, ȕȐȒȚȖ ȕȍ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȈȉșȚȘȈȋȐȘȖȊȈȚȤșȧ ȖȚ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȐȏȔȍȘȍȕȐȧ ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȑ ȔȈȒșȐȔȣ, ȟȚȖ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȊȍȌțȚșȧ ȓȦȌȤȔȐ Ȑ ȊȣȐȋȘȣȊȈȦȚșȧ Ȋ ȋȖȓȖȊȍ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ4.

ǺȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȉțȌțȡȍȍ ȕȈ ȊȖȑȕȍ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȣȔ, ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖ ȖȚȒȈȏȈȚȤșȧ ȖȚ ȕȍȒȖȘȘȍȒȚȕȣȝ ȚȍȘȔȐȕȖȊ, ȚȈȒȐȝ ȒȈȒ «ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȖȍ ȉțȌțȡȍȍ», ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȧ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ Țȍ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȔ ȔȖȎȕȖ ȌȖȊȍȘȧȚȤ. ǵȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȖșȚȤ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ șȓȖȎȕȣȝ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȊȈȍȚ ȚȖȟȒț ȒȖȕȊȍȘȋȍȕȞȐȐ ȔȍȎȌț ȚȍȖȘȐȍȑ ǹǨǹ Ȑ ȉȖȍȊȣȔ ȖȗȣȚȖȔ. DzȈȒ ȊȍȚȍȘȈȕȣ ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȚȍȖȘȍȚȐȒȐ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȗȘȍȌțȗȘȍȎȌȈȦȚ, ȟȚȖ Ȋ ȔȐȘȍ șȓȖȎȕȣȝ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȣȝ ȐȋȘȖȒȖȊ ȊȕȍȏȈȗȕȖșȚȤ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȕȖȘȔȖȑ. ǿȚȖȉȣ șȗȘȈȊȐȚȤșȧ ș ȕȍȑ ȐȓȐ ȝȖȚȧ ȉȣ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȐȚȤ șȐȓț ȕȍȐȏȉȍȎȕȖȋȖ ȠȖȒȈ Ȑ ȍȋȖ ȌȓȐȚȍȓȤȕȖșȚȤ ȗȘȐ șȚȖȓȒȕȖȊȍȕȐȐ ș ȕȍȖȎȐȌȈȕȕȣȔ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȍȔ șȐȚțȈȞȐȐ, ȕȍȖȉ-

1 Tuchman, Barbara W. The March of Folly: From Troy to Vietnam. New York: Ballantine Books, 1984, pp. 380-387. 2 Smith, Complexity, Networking, and Effects-Based Approaches to Operations, pp. 57-58.

3 Watts, Clausewitzian Friction and Future War, pp. 27-32.

4 Hammes, T. X. Col USMC (Ret). “War Isn’t A Rational Business.” Proceedings of the U.S. Naval Institute, July 1998, pp. 22-25. 12 January 2011. http://smallwarsjournal.com/documents/rationalwar.pdf.

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ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȝȖȌȐȔȖ ȕȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȚȤ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ țȔȕȖȋȖ ȖȗȗȖȕȍȕȚȈ ȕȈ Ȋșȍȝ țȘȖȊȕȧȝ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȉȖȘșȚȊȈ, ȕȖ ȚȈȒȎȍ țȟȐȚȣȊȈȚȤ Ȋșȍ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ Ȑ șȘȍȌșȚȊȈ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ Ȗȕ ȉțȌȍȚ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȚȤ Ȋ ȉȖȘȤȉȍ. ǨȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȈȧ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȈ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚ Ȓ ȚȘȍȉȖȊȈȕȐȦ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖșȚȐ ȔȕȖȎȍșȚȊȈ ȊȈȘȐȈȕȚȖȊ Ȑ șȞȍȕȈȘȐȍȊ ȘȍȈȋȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȕȈ șȒȓȈȌȣȊȈȦȡțȦșȧ șȐȚțȈȞȐȦ, Ȉ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȋȖȚȖȊȕȖșȚȐ Ȓ șȚȘȍȔȐȚȍȓȤȕȖȔț ȗȍȘȍȝȖȌț ȖȚ ȖȌȕȖȋȖ șȞȍȕȈȘȐȧ Ȓ ȌȘțȋȖȔț. ǰȔȍȕȕȖ ȕȈȓȐȟȐȍ ȔȕȖȎȍșȚȊȈ ȊȣȉȖȘȖȊ (ȖȗȞȐȑ) Ȑ șȚȘȍȔȐȚȍȓȤȕȖșȚȤ, ȊȣȕțȎȌȈȦȡȈȧ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ ȖȉȘȈȚȐȚȤșȧ Ȓ ȖȉȖȘȖȕȐȚȍȓȤȕȖȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ, șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȒȓȦȟȖȔ Ȓ ȗȖȉȍȌȍ Ȋ 21 ȊȍȒȍ.

3. ǴȍȚȈȜȖȘȈ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȐ Ȋ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔȈȝ

ǪȐȌ ȏȍȔȕȖȋȖ ȠȈȘȈ, ȖȚȒȘȣȊȈȦȡȐȑșȧ Ȑȏ ȒȖșȔȖșȈ, ȗȖȘȈȎȈȍȚ. ǴȈȚȍȘȐȒȐ Ȑ ȖȒȍȈȕȣ ȗȍȘȐȖȌȐȟȍșȒȐ ȏȈȒȘȣȊȈȦȚșȧ ȖȉȓȈȒȈȔȐ, ȕȍȗȘȍȘȣȊȕȖ ȐȏȔȍȕȧȧ ȖȉȡțȦ ȒȈȘȚȐȕț Ȑ ȕȍ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȧ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚȤ Ȗ ȒȈȒȖȑ-ȚȖ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȖșȚȐ Ȑ ȗȖșȚȖȧȕșȚȊȍ. ǼȖȘȔȐȘțȦȡȐȍșȧ ȖȉȘȈȏȣ ȗȘȐȟțȌȓȐȊȖ ȔȍȕȧȦȚșȧ, ȖȚșțȚșȚȊțȍȚ ȒȈȒȖȑ-ȓȐȉȖ ȗȖȘȧȌȖȒ ȐȓȐ țȗȖȘȧȌȖȟȍȕȕȖșȚȤ, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȡȐȍ ȗȘȍȌțȋȈȌȈȚȤ, ȒȈȒ ȉțȌȍȚ ȊȣȋȓȧȌȍȚȤ ȗȓȈȕȍȚȈ ȟȍȘȍȏ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȖȍ ȊȘȍȔȧ. ǪȐȌ ǯȍȔȓȐ Ȑȏ ȒȖșȔȖșȈ ȔȖȎȍȚ șȓțȎȐȚȤ ȔȍȚȈȜȖȘȖȑ ȔȐȘȖȊȖȋȖ șȖȖȉȡȍșȚȊȈ, Ȋ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ ȓȐȟȕȖșȚȐ, șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȋȘțȗȗȣ, ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȕȣȍ șȐȓȣ Ȑ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȈ ȕȍȗȘȍȘȣȊȕȖ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊțȦȚ, ȐȏȔȍȕȧȧ ȖȉȡțȦ ȒȈȘȚȐȕț. ǴȐȘȖȊȈȧ șȐșȚȍȔȈ, ȒȈȒ Ȑ ȗȓȈȕȍȚȈ, șȓȖȎȕȈ Ȑ ȕȍȗȘȍȘȣȊȕȖ ȐȏȔȍȕȧȍȚșȧ, ȒȈȒ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ, ȊȏȈȐȔȕȖȑ ȈȌȈȗȚȈȞȐȐ Ȑ ȒȖȥȊȖȓȦȞȐȐ, ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȧȡȐȝ ȕȈ ȔȕȖȎȍșȚȊȍ țȘȖȊȕȍȑ Ȑ ȈȘȍȕ – ȖȚ ȖȚȌȍȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȒȈ ȌȖ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊ Ȑ ȔȍȎȌțȕȈȘȖȌȕȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȣ Ȋ ȞȍȓȖȔ. DzȈȒ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚ, ȋȘȈȕȐȞȣ Ȋ ȔȐȘȖȊȖȔ șȖȖȉȡȍșȚȊȍ ȊȖ Ȋșȍȝ ȍȋȖ ȒțȓȤȚțȘȕȣȝ, ȐȌȍȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȝ, ȐȕȚȍȓȓȍȒȚțȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȐȓȐ ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȟȍșȒȐȔȐ ȐȏȔȍȘȍȕȐȧȝ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȦȚșȧ ȗȖȌȊȍȘȎȍȕȕȣȔȐ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧȔ1.

ǷȘȐȊȍȌȍȕȕȣȑ ȊȣȠȍ ȗȘȐȔȍȘ ȗȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚ ȊȈȎȕȖșȚȤ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȔȍȚȈȜȖȘȣ ȗȘȐ ȘȈșșȔȖȚȘȍȕȐȐ șȓȖȎȕȣȝ ȧȊȓȍȕȐȑ Ȑ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔ. ǩȖȓȍȍ ȚȖȋȖ, ȔȍȚȈȜȖȘȣ Ȑ ȈȕȈȓȖȋȐȐ șȚȈȕȖȊȧȚșȧ ȐȕȚȍȋȘȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȟȈșȚȤȦ ȐȕȚțȐȚȐȊȕȖȋȖ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȧ Ȑ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚȖȔ, ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȧ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ, ȟȍȓȖȊȍȒ șȗȘȈȊȓȧȍȚșȧ șȖ șȓȖȎȕȣȔȐ ȊȣȏȖȊȈȔȐ. ǶȕȐ ȕȈȝȖȌȧȚșȧ Ȋ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȔȍȝȈȕȐȏȔȖȊ ȚȈȒ ȕȈȏȣȊȈȍȔȖȋȖ ȍșȚȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȗȘȐȕȧȚȐȧ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȑ (naturalistic decisionmaking), ȊȣșȚȘȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȕȈ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȧ ȚȖȋȖ, ȒȈȒ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ ȐȓȐ ǻȖȓȓ-ǹȚȘȐȚ ȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȦȚ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ Ȋ țșȓȖȊȐȧȝ ȞȍȑȚȕȖȚȈ2. Ǫ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȔ ȊȏȈȐȔȖșȊȧȏȈȕȕȖȔ ȔȐȘȍ 21 ȊȍȒȈ șȖȗȍȘȕȐȟȍșȚȊȖ Ȑ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȕȍ

1 Smith, Complexity, Networking, and Effects-Based Approaches to Operations, p. 1.

2 ǫȈȘȘȐ Dzȓȍȑȕ (Gary Klein), ȗȘȐȒȓȈȌȕȖȑ ȒȖȋȕȐȚȐȊȕȣȑ ȗșȐȝȖȓȖȋ, ȧȊȓȧȦȡȐȑșȧ ȗȐȖȕȍȘȖȔ ȕȈȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ, ȐșșȓȍȌțȦȡȍȋȖ ȗȘȐȕȧȚȐȍ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȑ ȕȈ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȘȈșȗȖȏȕȈȊȈȕȐȧ ȗȈȚȚȍȘȕȖȊ (ȗȖȌȝȖȌ, ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖ ȖȚȓȐȟȈȦȡȐȑșȧ ȖȚ ȗȘȐȕȧȚȐȧ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȑ ȕȈ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȋȖ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȧ Ȑ ȉȖȓȤȠȍ șȖȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊțȦȡȐȑ ȗȘȐȕȧȚȐȦ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȑ ȕȈ ȗȖȓȍ ȉȖȧ) ȗȐȠȍȚ: «ǷȘȐȠȓȖ ȊȘȍȔȧ șȖȋȓȈșȐȚȤșȧ, ȟȚȖ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ Ȑ ȐȌȍȈȓȣ ȗȘȐȕȧȚȐȧ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȑ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ Ȕȣ ȗȘȐȌȍȘȎȐȊȈȓȐșȤ ȗȖșȓȍȌȕȐȍ 25 ȓȍȚ, ȖȒȈȏȈȓȐșȤ ȕȍȈȌȍȒȊȈȚȕȣȔȐ Ȑ ȊȊȖȌȧȡȐȔȐ Ȋ ȏȈȉȓțȎȌȍȕȐȍ, ȗȘȐȊȖȌȧȡȐȔȐ Ȓ șȖȏȌȈȕȐȦ ȉȍșȗȖȓȍȏȕȣȝ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚȖȊ ȗȘȐȕȧȚȐȧ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȑ, ȕȍȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȣȝ ȗȘȖȋȘȈȔȔ ȉȖȍȊȖȑ ȗȖȌȋȖȚȖȊȒȐ Ȑ ȕȍȈȌȍȒȊȈȚȕȣȝ ȌȖȒȚȘȐȕ...»

Klein, Gary. “Strategies of Decision Making,” Military Review, May 1989, pp. 56-64. ǸȈȏȊȐȚȐȍ ȌȈȕȕȣȝ ȐȌȍȑ șȔ. Ȋ: Zsambok, Caroline and Gary Klein. Naturalistic Decision Making. Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum, 1997. pp. 4-5.

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ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȈȕȖȔȈȓȐȍȑ, ȕȖ ȕȖȘȔȖȑ, ȒȖȚȖȘțȦ ȗȣȚȈȍȚșȧ ȖȚȖȉȘȈȏȐȚȤ ȚȍȖȘȐȧ șȓȖȎȕȣȝ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ. ǿȍȘȍȏ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȧ ȔȐȘȈ, ȒȘȐȏȐșȈ Ȑ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȈ șȓȖȎȕȣȍ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȍ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊțȦȚ Ȑ ȘȍȈȋȐȘțȦȚ ȕȈ ȈȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȤ ȌȘțȋ ȌȘțȋȈ, ȐȏȔȍȕȧȧșȤ Ȑ ȐȏȔȍȕȧȧ șȘȍȌț.

ǺȍȔ ȕȍ Ȕȍȕȍȍ ȏȈȗȈȌȕȖȍ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȍ ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȍ Ȑ ȊȖșȗȘȐȧȚȐȍ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȖȔ ȖșȚȈȍȚșȧ ȊȖ ȔȕȖȋȖȔ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȔ. dzȐȕȍȑȕȖȍ ȊȐȌȍȕȐȍ ȔȐȘȈ ȖșȚȈȊȈȓȖșȤ ȈȌȍȒȊȈȚȕȣȔ Ȋ ȗȍȘȐȖȌ ǽȖȓȖȌȕȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȑ ȔȐȘȖȊȖȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȣ, ȊȣșȚȘȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȊȖȒȘțȋ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖșȚȖȧȕȐȧ ȌȊțȝ șȊȍȘȝȌȍȘȎȈȊ, ȟȚȖ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȓȖ șȊȍșȚȐ ȔȐȘȖȊțȦ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒțȦ șȐșȚȍȔț Ȓ ȟȍȘȕȖ-ȉȍȓȖȑ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ1. ǯȈȗȈȌȕȖȍ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȍ ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȍ ȗȖ-ȗȘȍȎȕȍȔț ȗȘȍȌȗȖȟȐȚȈȍȚ ȐșȒȈȚȤ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȍ, ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȣȍ ȖȚȊȍȚȣ ȕȈ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȍ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȣ Ȋ șȓȖȎȕȖȔ Ȑ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȔ ȔȐȘȍ, Ȋ ȚȖ ȊȘȍȔȧ ȒȈȒ ȊȖȑȕȈ, ȉțȌțȟȐ șȓȖȎȕȖȑ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȖȑ, ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȜțȕȌȈȔȍȕȚȈȓȤȕȖ ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȖȑ2. Ǫ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ ǹǨǹ ȊȖȑȕȈ ȐȕȚȍȘȗȘȍȚȐȘțȍȚșȧ ȒȈȒ șȚȖȓȒȕȖȊȍȕȐȍ șȐșȚȍȔ, Ȋ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȔ ȒȈȎȌȈȧ Ȑȏ ȕȐȝ șȚȈȘȈȍȚșȧ șȖȝȘȈȕȐȚȤ șȊȖȦ ȞȍȓȖșȚȕȖșȚȤ Ȑ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȘȖȊȈȚȤșȧ Ȓ ȉȘȖȠȍȕȕȣȔ ȊȣȏȖȊȈȔ ȕȈ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȊȕțȚȘȍȕȕȐȝ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȖȊ, ȚȈȒȐȝ ȒȈȒ ȖȉțȟȍȕȐȍ Ȑ șȈȔȖȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȧ. ǨȌȈȗȚȈȞȐȧ ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȐȚ Ȋ ȜȖȘȔȈȝ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ ȏȈȘȈȕȍȍ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȚȤ, ȒȈȒ Ȑ șȈȔȖ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ ǹǨǹ, Ȉ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ Ȑ ȊȣȏȖȊȣ ȕȍ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȐȊȈȦȚșȧ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȊȖȑȕȖȑ, ȕȖ ȊȒȓȦȟȈȦȚ ȠȐȘȖȒȐȑ ȒȖȕȚȍȒșȚ ȔȐȘȈ Ȑ ȒȘȐȏȐșȈ, ȖȝȊȈȚȣȊȈȧ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒțȦ, ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȟȍșȒțȦ Ȑ ȌȘțȋȐȍ ȈȘȍȕȣ Ȑ șȜȍȘȣ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖȑ ȎȐȏȕȐ3.

Ǫ ȟȍȔ ȗȖȓȤȏȈ ȘȈȏȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȧ Ȗ ȊȖȑȕȍ Ȋ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȝ ȚȍȘȔȐȕȈȝ, ȖșȖȉȍȕȕȖ Ȋ ȊȣșȖȒȖȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȟȕȣȝ, ȔȍȚȈȜȖȘȐȟȕȣȝ ȚȍȘȔȐȕȈȝ ȕȈțȒȐ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ? ǶȚȊȍȚ ȕȈ ȌȈȕȕȣȑ ȊȖȗȘȖș Ȋ 21 ȊȍȒȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȚȈȒ Ȏȍ ȗȖȓȍȏȍȕ, ȒȈȒ Ȑ Ȍȓȧ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȈ. ǷȘțșșȐȧ ȉȣȓȈ ȗȖȉȍȎȌȍȕȈ ǼȘȈȕȞȐȍȑ, Ȑ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ șȚȈȘȈȓșȧ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȈȚȤ ȕȖȊȣȍ, ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȍ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȣ Ȍȓȧ ȕȖȊȖȋȖ ȗȘțșșȒȖȋȖ șȖȗȘȖȚȐȊȓȍȕȐȧ ǵȈȗȖȓȍȖȕț ȗȖșȓȍ 1807 ȋȖȌȈ. dzȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȤ țȌȖȉȕȈ, ȗȘȖșȚȈ Ȑ ȒȖȔȜȖȘȚȕȈ Ȑ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȉȓȍșȚȧȡȐȔ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚȖȔ ȗȘȐ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȒȍ ȚȍȝȕȐȟȍșȒȐȝ șȐșȚȍȔ Ȑ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȑ. ǶȌȕȈȒȖ ȖȕȈ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȊȈȍȚ șȓȐȠȒȖȔ țȏȒȐȑ ȊȏȋȓȧȌ Ȑ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȕȣȑ ȖȉȏȖȘ ȗȘȐ ȘȈșșȔȖȚȘȍȕȐȐ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ Ȑ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȜȍȕȖȔȍȕȖȊ. ǰșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȑ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȣ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚ Ȓ ȗȖȧȊȓȍȕȐȦ ȚȍȖȘȍȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȠȖȘ Ȑ «șȓȍȗȣȝ» ȚȖȟȍȒ Ȋ șȖȏȌȈȊȈȍȔȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔȈȝ ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȐ, ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔȈȝ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȔȖȋțȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȣ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȖȔ Ȍȓȧ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ ȊȕȍȏȈȗȕȖșȚȐ Ȑ ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȖȋȖ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȧ șȖȉȣȚȐȑ. ǷȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȕȖșȚȐ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȑ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȣ Ȑ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȝ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȖȊ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȍȚ țȔȍȕȤȠȐȚȤ ȊȘȍȔȧ ȘȍȈȒȞȐȐ ȕȈ ȕȍȖȎȐȌȈȕȕȖȍ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȍ șȖȉȣȚȐȑ ȌȖ ȗȘȐȍȔȓȍȔȣȝ ȗȘȍȌȍȓȖȊ Ȑ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȘȖȊȈȚȤșȧ Ȓ ȕȍȗȘȍȘȣȊȕȖ ȐȏȔȍȕȧȦȡȍȔțșȧ ȒȖȕȚȍȒșȚț4.

1 Czerwinski, Coping with the Bounds, pp. 8-9.

2 Davis, Effects-Based Operations: A Grand Challenge for the Analytical Community, p. 26.

3 Miller, James Grier. Living Systems. Denver, CO: McGraw-Hill Professional, 1995, pp. 853-854. 4 Beyerchen, Clausewitz, Nonlinearity and the Importance of Imagery, p. 76.

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ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ǪȖȍȕȕȖȍ ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȍ Ȋ ȗȖșȓȍȌȕȐȍ ȌȍșȧȚȐȓȍȚȐȧ ȗȍȘȍȎȐȊȈȍȚ șȍȘȤȍȏȕȣȍ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ, ȖȌȕȈȒȖ ȖȕȖ ȍȡȍ ȕȍ ȖȚȒȈȏȈȓȖșȤ ȖȚ țȎȍ ȕȍ ȘȈȉȖȚȈȦȡȍȋȖ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȋȖ ȊȐȌȍȕȐȧ ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȑ ȔȐȘȈ. ȅȚȖ ȖȏȕȈȟȈȍȚ, ȟȚȖ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ ȉȣȚȤ ȕȈȑȌȍȕȣ ȕȖȊȣȍ ȗțȚȐ ȒȖȔȉȐȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ țșȐȓȐȑ ș ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȔȐ, ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȟȍșȒȐȔȐ Ȑ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȖȕȕȣȔȐ ȔȍȚȖȌȈȔȐ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ Ȍȓȧ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ ȏȈȌȈȟ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȗȘȍȎȌȍ ȘȍȠȈȓȐșȤ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȔȐ ȔȍȚȖȌȈȔȐ1. ǶșȖȏȕȈȕȐȍ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȐ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȊȈȎȕȣȔ Ȑ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȣȔ ȠȈȋȖȔ, șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍȔ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȋȖ ȌȖȓȎȕȈ șȚȈȚȤ ȗȍȘȍȖȞȍȕȒȈ ȗȘȐȕȞȐȗȖȊ ȊȖȑȕȣ, șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ Ȑ ȚȈȒȚȐȒȐ ȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȔȍȚȖȌȖȊ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ ȊȖȑșȒȈȔȐ Ȋ ȕȖȊȣȝ țșȓȖȊȐȧȝ, ȊȣșȚȘȖȍȕȕȣȝ Ȋ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȑ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȣ Ȑ ȊȖȠȍȌȠȐȝ Ȋ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ țșȚȈȊȣ Ȑ ȘțȒȖȊȖȌșȚȊȈ – ȠȐȘȖȒȐȑ ȒȘțȋ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔ, ȕȈ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȒȍ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȌȖȓȎȕȈ șȖșȘȍȌȖȚȖȟȐȚȤșȧ ȊȖȍȕȕȈȧ ȕȈțȒȈ 21 ȊȍȒȈ.

1 Echevarria II, Globalization and the Nature of War, p. 18.

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