Арзуманян Р., Сложное мышление и сеть парадигма нелинейности и среда безопасности 21 века

ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

Ȋ-șȍȉȍ». ǺȘȐȍȌȐȕșȚȊȖ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚ Ȗ ȚȖȔ, ȟȚȖ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȈ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȕȍȖȚȌȍȓȐȔȈ ȖȚ ȐșȚȖȘȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ, ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ Ȑ ȗȘȖȟȐȝ ȒȖȕȚȍȒșȚȖȊ ȒȖȕȒȘȍȚȕȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ, Ȑ ȕȐ ȖȌȕȈ Ȑȏ ȚȍȕȌȍȕȞȐȑ ȈȗȘȐȖȘȐ ȕȍ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȗȘȍȌȗȖȟȚȐȚȍȓȤȕȖȑ. ǹ șțȉȢȍȒȚȐȊȕȖȑ ȚȖȟȒȐ ȏȘȍȕȐȧ ȔȈȕȐȜȍșȚȈȞȐȧ ȌȈȕȕȣȝ ȚȍȕȌȍȕȞȐȑ ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȐȚ:

x ȟȍȘȍȏ ȗȘȈȊȐȚȍȓȤșȚȊȖ (die Regierung), ȒȖȚȖȘȖȍ ȗȣȚȈȍȚșȧ ȕȈȗȘȈȊȐȚȤ ȊȖȑȕț Ȓ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȖȑ ȞȍȓȐ;

x ȟȍȘȍȏ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȈȒȚȖȘȖȊ, ȚȈȒȐȝ ȒȈȒ ȒȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȐȍ (der Feldherr) Ȑ ȈȘȔȐȐ (sein Heer), ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ șȚȈȓȒȐȊȈȦȚșȧ ș ȕȍȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȖșȚȤȦ ȉȖȧ; Ȑ

x ȟȍȘȍȏ ȕȈȘȖȌ (das Volk), ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȐșȚȖȟȕȐȒȖȔ ȥȔȖȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȥȕȍȘȋȐȐ, ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖȑ Ȍȓȧ șȚȖȑȒȖșȚȐ Ȑ ȊȣȌȍȘȎȒȐ Ȋ șȍȘȤȍȏȕȖȑ ȉȖȘȤȉȍ1.

2.5ǪȖȑȕȈ ȒȈȒ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȑ ȜȍȕȖȔȍȕ.

ǼȈȒȚȖȘȣ, ȗȘȐȊȖȌȧȡȐȍ Ȓ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȐ ȊȖȑȕȣ

ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, țȎȍ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ Ȋ ȒȕȐȋȍ «Ƕ ȊȖȑȕȍ» ȗȘȐȠȍȓ Ȓ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȦ ȚȖȋȖ, ȟȚȖ ȊȖȑȕȈ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȔ ȜȍȕȖȔȍȕȖȔ, șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍȔ ȟȍȋȖ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȍȍ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȤ Ȑ ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȖșȚȤ2. ǵȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ ȕȈȑȚȐ ȌȊȍ ȖȌȐȕȈȒȖȊȣȍ Ȑ ȗȖȝȖȎȐȍ ȊȖȑȕȣ, Ȑ ȕȐ ȖȌȕȈ ȊȖȑȕȈ ȕȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȋȈȘȈȕȚȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȖ ȖșȚȈȊȈȚȤșȧ șȚȘțȒȚțȘȕȖ șȚȈȉȐȓȤȕȖȑ. ǷȖ țȚȊȍȘȎȌȍȕȐȦ ǩȍȑȍȘȟȍȕȈ, DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȓ, ȟȚȖ ȈȕȈȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ ȕȍ ȔȖȋțȚ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȚȤ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȍ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȝ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔ ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȗȖȥȚȖȔț ȕȈȠȐ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȚȤ ȗȘȖȚȍȒȈȕȐȍ Ȑ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣ ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȓȦȉȖȋȖ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȈ șțȡȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȣ. DzȈȎȌȈȧ ȊȖȑȕȈ ȊȒȓȦȟȈȍȚ ȕȍȖȚȢȍȔȓȍȔȣȍ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȐ, ȖȉțșȓȖȊȓȐȊȈȦȡȐȍ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔț ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȕȐȧ, Ȑ ȊșȓȍȌ ȏȈ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȍȔ ȔȖȎȕȖ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚȤ Ȗ ȚȘȍȝ ȠȐȘȖȒȐȝ ȒȈȚȍȋȖȘȐȧȝ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȝ ȜȈȒȚȖȘȖȊ, ȗȘȐȊȖȌȧȡȐȝ Ȓ ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȖșȚȐ ȊȖȑȕȣ: ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȐ, ȚȘȍȕȐȐ Ȑ șȓțȟȈȍ3.

2.5.1 ǪȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȕȈ ȊȖȑȕȍ. DzȈȒ ȖȚȔȍȟȈȓȖșȤ ȊȣȠȍ, țȎȍ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ ȖȉȘȈȏȕȖ Ȑ țȉȍȌȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ ȗȖȒȈȏȈȓ, ȟȚȖ Ȋ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȓȍȎȈȚ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȔȍȎȌț ȎȐȊȣȔȐ șțȡȕȖșȚȧȔȐ (șțȉȢȍȒȚȈȔȐ), ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ șȊȍșȚȐ Ȓ ȗȘȖșȚȖȑ ȉȐȕȈȘȕȖȑ ȖȗȗȖȏȐȞȐȐ. ȅȚȖ ȖȏȕȈȟȈȍȚ, ȟȚȖ ȊȖȑȕȈ ȌȖȓȎȕȈ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȚȤșȧ ȒȈȒ ȐȕȚȍȘȈȒȚȐȊȕȣȑ ȗȘȖȞȍșș, ȒȖȕȚȐȕțțȔ, Ȋ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȔ ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȐȚ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȉȖȘșȚȊȖ șțȉȢȍȒȚȖȊ ȊȖȑȕȣ, Ȑ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ ȘȍȏȒȖ ȒȘȐȚȐȒȖȊȈȓ șȊȖȐȝ șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȐȒȖȊ ȏȈ șȚȈȚȐȟȕȖȍ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȑ ȕȍȎȍȓȈȕȐȍ ȊȐȌȍȚȤ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȖșȚȤ. ǺȖ, ȟȚȖ ȊȖȑȕȈ Ȍȓȧ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȈ ȍșȚȤ ȐȕȚȍȘȈȒȚȐȊȕȣȑ ȗȘȖȞȍșș, ȝȖȘȖȠȖ ȊȐȌȕȖ Ȑȏ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȑ, ȘȈșșȔȖȚȘȍȕȕȣȝ ȊȣȠȍ. ǪȖȗȘȖș Ȋ ȌȘțȋȖȔ: șȊȧȏȣȊȈȓ ȓȐ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȤ Ȑ ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȖșȚȤ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȐȔȍȕȕȖ ș ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȍȔ? ǶȚȊȍȚ ȌȖȓȎȍȕ ȉȣȚȤ ȖȌȕȖȏȕȈȟȕȖ

1 Echevarria II, Globalization and the Nature of War, pȘ. 9-10. 2 Dickerson, Adaptability: A New Principle of War, p. 206.

3 Beyerchen, Clausewitz, Nonlinearity and the Importance of Imagery, pp. 72, 76.

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ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȗȖȓȖȎȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȔ1. DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ ȏȈȌȈȍȚșȧ ȊȖȗȘȖșȖȔ, ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȓȐ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȕȈțȒȖȑ ȐȓȐ ȐșȒțșșȚȊȖȔ, Ȑ ȌȈȍȚ ȖȚȊȍȚ: ȕȐ ȚȍȔ, ȕȐ ȌȘțȋȐȔ, ȖȉȢȧșȕȧȧ șȊȖȑ ȖȚȊȍȚ ȐȔȍȕȕȖ ȐȕȚȍȘȈȒȚȐȊȕȖȑ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ.

«ǹțȡȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖȍ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȐȍ ȔȍȎȌț ȊȍȌȍȕȐȍȔ ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȑ ȌȘțȋȐȔȐ ȐșȒțșșȚȊȈȔȐ șȊȖȌȐȚșȧ Ȓ ȚȖȔț, ȟȚȖ ȊȖȑȕȈ ȕȍ ȍșȚȤ ȌȍȧȚȍȓȤȕȖșȚȤ ȊȖȓȐ, ȗȘȖȧȊȓȧȦȡȈȧșȧ ȗȘȖȚȐȊ ȔȍȘȚȊȖȑ ȔȈȚȍȘȐȐ, ȒȈȒ ȥȚȖ ȐȔȍȍȚ ȔȍșȚȖ Ȋ ȔȍȝȈȕȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȐșȒțșșȚȊȈȝ, ȐȓȐ Ȏȍ ȕȈȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȕȈȧ ȕȈ ȖȌțȝȖȚȊȖȘȍȕȕȣȍ, ȕȖ ȗȈșșȐȊȕȖ ȗȘȍȌȈȦȡȐȍ șȍȉȧ ȍȋȖ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȦ ȖȉȢȍȒȚȣ – ȕȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ, Ȍțȝ Ȑ ȟțȊșȚȊȖ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȒȈ, ȒȈȒ ȥȚȖ ȐȔȍȍȚ ȔȍșȚȖ Ȋ Ȑȏȧȡȕȣȝ ȐșȒțșșȚȊȈȝ. ǪȖȑȕȈ ȍșȚȤ ȌȍȧȚȍȓȤȕȖșȚȤ ȊȖȓȐ ȗȘȖȚȐȊ ȖȌțȝȖȚȊȖȘȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȘȍȈȋȐȘțȦȡȍȋȖ ȖȉȢȍȒȚȈ»2.

ǬȘțȋȐȔ șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍȔ ȐȕȚȍȘȈȒȚȐȊȕȖȑ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȣ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȚȖȚ ȜȈȒȚ, ȟȚȖ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȍ ȕȈ ȊȖȑȕȍ ȗȘȖȐȏȊȖȌȐȚ ȕȍ ȖȌȕț ȘȍȈȒȞȐȦ, Ȉ ȏȈȗțșȒȈȍȚ ȗȘȖȞȍșș ȌȐȕȈȔȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ ȗȘȐ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȣȝ țșȓȖȊȐȧȝ ȟȍȘȍȏ ȒȈșȒȈȌȕȣȍ ȔȍȝȈȕȐȏȔȣ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȔȕȖȋȖȒȘȈȚȕȖ Ȑ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖ țșȐȓȍȕ. ȅȚȖ ȝȖȘȖȠȖ ȊȐȌȕȖ, ȒȖȋȌȈ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ ȖȉșțȎȌȈȍȚ ȊȓȐȧȕȐȍ ȗȖȉȍȌȣ ȐȓȐ ȗȖȘȈȎȍȕȐȧ ȕȈ ȗȖȓȍ ȉȖȧ, ȒȖȚȖȘȖȍ ȟȈșȚȖ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ șȖȊȍȘȠȍȕȕȖ ȕȍȗȘȖȗȖȘȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȔ ȔȈȚȍȘȐȈȓȤȕȖȑ șȖșȚȈȊȓȧȦȡȍȑ ȗȖȉȍȌȣ ȐȓȐ ȗȖȘȈȎȍȕȐȧ. «...ȘȈȏȔȍȘ ȗȖȉȍȌȣ ȊȖȏȘȈșȚȈȍȚ ȕȍ ȗȘȖȗȖȘȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖ ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊț ȗȖȉȍȎȌȍȕȕȣȝ șȐȓ, ȕȖ Ȋ ȏȕȈȟȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ ȉȖȓȤȠȍȑ șȚȍȗȍȕȐ. ǴȖȘȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȗȖșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȧ, ȊȣȏȣȊȈȍȔȣȍ ȐșȝȖȌȖȔ ȒȘțȗȕȖȋȖ ȉȖȧ, ȋȖȘȈȏȌȖ ȏȕȈȟȐȚȍȓȤȕȍȍ ț ȗȖȉȍȎȌȍȕȕȖȋȖ, ȟȍȔ ț ȗȖȉȍȌȐȚȍȓȧ; ȖȕȐ ȊȍȌțȚ Ȓ ȊȍșȤȔȈ ȒȘțȗȕȣȔ ȔȈȚȍȘȐȈȓȤȕȣȔ ȗȖȚȍȘȧȔ, Ȑ ȗȖșȓȍȌȕȐȍ Ȋ șȊȖȦ ȖȟȍȘȍȌȤ ȖȚȘȈȎȈȦȚșȧ ȕȖȊȣȔȐ ȗȖȚȍȘȧȔȐ ȔȖȘȈȓȤȕȣȝ șȐȓ; Ȋ ȚȈȒȖȔ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȐ Țȍ Ȑ ȌȘțȋȐȍ ȗȖȚȍȘȐ ȘȈșȚțȚ Ȑ țșȐȓȐȊȈȦȚșȧ. ȅȚȖȔț ȔȖȘȈȓȤȕȖȔț ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȦ ȕȈȌȓȍȎȐȚ, șȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȤȕȖ, ȗȘȐȌȈȊȈȚȤ ȖșȖȉȖȍ ȏȕȈȟȍȕȐȍ. ǶȕȖ ȖȚȘȈȎȈȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȗȖȓȖȎȕȣȝ ȕȈȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧȝ ȕȈ ȖȉȍȐȝ șȚȖȘȖȕȈȝ: ȒȈȒ ȖȕȖ ȗȖȌȘȣȊȈȍȚșȐȓȣȗȖȉȍȎȌȍȕȕȖȋȖ, ȚȈȒ ȎȍȖȕȖȗȖȌȕȐȔȈȍȚșȐȓȣȐȌȍȧȚȍȓȤȕȖșȚȤ ȗȖȉȍȌȐȚȍȓȧ»3.

ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȓ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕțȦ ȗȘȐȘȖȌț ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȑ șȊȧȏȣȊȈȓ ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȖșȚȤ ȊȖȑȕȣ ș ȗȘȐȘȖȌȖȑ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȐȔȍȦȚ ȔȍșȚȖ ȔȍȎȌț ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈȔȐ, ȊȕțȚȘȐ șȈȔȐȝ ȊȖȑșȒ Ȑ ș ȒȖȕȚȍȒșȚȖȔ. «ǪȚȖȘȖȍ șȊȖȑșȚȊȖ ȉȖȍȊȖȋȖ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ – ȖȕȖ ȌȖȓȎȕȖ ȖȎȐȌȈȚȤ ȗȖȏȐȚȐȊȕȖȑ ȘȍȈȒȞȐȐ Ȑ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȈ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȒȈȒ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȈ. ǯȌȍșȤ ȕȈș ȕȍ ȐȕȚȍȘȍșțȍȚ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȈ ȗȖȌșȟȍȚȈ ȌȈȕȕȣȝ ȘȍȈȒȞȐȑ <…> șȒȖȘȍȍ șȈȔ ȜȈȒȚ ȚȖȋȖ, ȟȚȖ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȈ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȌȍȓȈȍȚ Ȑȝ ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȣȔȐ»4. ǺȍȔ șȈȔȣȔ țȚȊȍȘȎȌȍȕȐȧ ȚȐȗȈ «ȔȈȓȣȍ șȖȉȣȚȐȧ ȊșȍȋȌȈ ȏȈȊȐșȧȚ ȖȚ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȝ» ȐȓȐ, ȕȈȖȉȖȘȖȚ, «ȉȖȓȤȠȖȑ ȚȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ țșȗȍȝ ȊȍȌȍȚ Ȓ ȉȖȓȤȠȖȔț șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȔț» ȖȚȘȈȎȈȦȚ Ȑ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍȔ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ, ȧȊȓȧȦȡȐȝșȧ ȕȍȖȚȢȍȔȓȍȔȣȔ ȈȚȘȐȉțȚȖȔ ȓȦȉȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ5. ǺȈȒȖȋȖ ȘȖȌȈ ȊȏȈȐȔȖ-

1 Beyerchen, Clausewitz, Nonlinearity and the Unpredictability of War.

2 Clausewitz, On War, p. 149.

3 Ibid, p. 253.

4 Ibid, p. 13.

5 Ibid, p. 596, 623.

122

ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȜțȕȌȈȔȍȕȚȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȖȑ Ȍȓȧ ȓȦȉȖȑ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ, Ȑ șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȈȧ ȕȈțȒȈ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȌȈȚȤ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȣȍ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘȐșȚȐȒȐ ȗȖȌȖȉȕȣȝ ȗȈȚȚȍȘȕȖȊ ȈȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȐ1.

2.5.2 ǺȘȍȕȐȍ Ȑ ȚțȔȈȕ ȊȖȑȕȣ. ǪȚȖȘȖȑ ȐșȚȖȟȕȐȒ ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȖșȚȐ ȊȖȑȕȣ șȊȧȏȈȕ ș ȧȊȓȍȕȐȍȔ, ȒȖȚȖȘȖȍ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ ȕȈȏȊȈȓ ȚȘȍȕȐȍȔ. ǸȧȌ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȍȑ, ȚȈȒȐȍ ȒȈȒ ǸȐȟȈȘȌ ǹȐȔȒȐȕ (Richard Simpkin), ȗȘȐȌȍȘȎȐȊȈȦȚșȧ ȚȖȟȒȐ ȏȘȍȕȐȧ, ȟȚȖ ȚȘȍȕȐȍ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ «ȕȈȐȉȖȓȍȍ ȊȈȎȕȣȔ ȊȒȓȈȌȖȔ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȈ Ȋ ȊȖȍȕȕțȦ ȔȣșȓȤ»2. Dz ȚȈȒȖȔț Ȏȍ ȊȣȊȖȌț ȗȘȐȝȖȌȐȚ Ȑ ǬȎȖȕ ǩȖȑȌ (John Boyd) Ȋ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ șȊȖȍȑ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ, ȗȣȚȈȦȡȍȑșȧ șȖȍȌȐȕȐȚȤ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȦ ȚȘȍȕȐȧ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȈ șȖ ȊȚȖȘȣȔ ȕȈȟȈȓȖȔ ȚȍȘȔȖȌȐȕȈȔȐȒȐ3. DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ ȌȈȍȚ șȓȍȌțȦȡȍȍ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȍ ȚȘȍȕȐȧ: «Ǫșȍ ȕȈ ȊȖȑȕȍ ȖȟȍȕȤ ȗȘȖșȚȖ, ȕȖ ȥȚȈ ȗȘȖșȚȖȚȈ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȍȚ ȚȘțȌȕȖșȚȐ. ǷȖșȓȍȌȕȐȍ, ȕȈȒȖȗȓȧȧșȤ, ȊȣȏȣȊȈȦȚ ȚȈȒȖȍ ȚȘȍȕȐȍ, Ȗ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȔ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȒ, ȕȍ ȊȐȌȈȊȠȐȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȕȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȐȔȍȚȤ ȗȘȈȊȐȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȗȖȕȧȚȐȧ <…> ȗȖȌ ȊȓȐȧȕȐȍȔ ȉȍșȟȐșȓȍȕȕȣȝ ȔȍȓȒȐȝ ȖȉșȚȖȧȚȍȓȤșȚȊ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȗȐșȤȔȍȕȕȖ ȐȏȓȈȋȈȚȤ ȕȍ șȚȖȐȚ, ȕȈ ȊȖȑȕȍ Ȋșȍ șȕȐȎȈȍȚșȧ, Ȑ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȒ ȌȈȓȍȒȖ ȖȚșȚȈȍȚ ȖȚ ȕȈȔȍȟȍȕȕȖȑ ȞȍȓȐ. <…> ǪȖȍȕȕȈȧ ȔȈȠȐȕȈ – ȈȘȔȐȧ Ȑ Ȋșȍ, ȟȚȖ Ȓ ȕȍȑ ȖȚȕȖșȐȚșȧ, – Ȋ ȖșȕȖȊȍ șȊȖȍȑ ȟȘȍȏȊȣȟȈȑȕȖ ȗȘȖșȚȈ, Ȑ ȗȖȚȖȔț ȒȈȎȍȚșȧ, ȟȚȖ ȍȦ ȓȍȋȒȖ țȗȘȈȊȓȧȚȤ. ǵȖ ȊșȗȖȔȕȐȔ, ȟȚȖ ȕȐ ȖȌȕȈ Ȑȏ ȍȍ ȟȈșȚȍȑ ȕȍ șȌȍȓȈȕȈ Ȑȏ ȞȍȓȖȋȖ ȒțșȒȈ; Ȋșȍ ȘȍȠȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ șȖșȚȈȊȓȍȕȖ Ȑȏ ȖȚȌȍȓȤȕȣȝ ȐȕȌȐȊȐȌȖȊ, Ȑȏ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȒȈȎȌȣȑ ȐșȗȣȚȣȊȈȍȚ ȚȘȍȕȐȍ ȗȖ ȊșȍȔ ȕȈȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧȔ. <…> ȅȚȖ țȎȈșȕȖȍ ȚȘȍȕȐȍ, ȒȖȚȖȘȖȍ ȕȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ, ȒȈȒ Ȋ ȔȍȝȈȕȐȒȍ, ȉȣȚȤ șȖșȘȍȌȖȚȖȟȍȕȖ Ȋ ȕȍȔȕȖȋȐȝ ȗțȕȒȚȈȝ, ȊșȦȌț ȗȘȐȝȖȌȐȚ Ȋ șȖȗȘȐȒȖșȕȖȊȍȕȐȍ șȖ șȓțȟȈȑȕȖșȚȤȦ Ȑ ȊȣȏȣȊȈȍȚ ȧȊȓȍȕȐȧ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȏȈȘȈȕȍȍ țȟȍșȚȤ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ, ȚȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȖȕȐȗȖȉȖȓȤȠȍȑȟȈșȚȐșȓțȟȈȑȕȣ»4.

DzȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȧ ȚȘȍȕȐȧ ȥȚȖ ȕȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ țȚȊȍȘȎȌȍȕȐȍ, ȟȚȖ ȕȈ ȊȖȑȕȍ ȊȍȡȐ ȖȚȓȐȟȈȦȚșȧ ȖȚ ȗȓȈȕȈ, ȕȖ șȓȖȎȕȍȑȠȍȍ ȖȡțȡȍȕȐȍ, ȗȖȟȍȔț ȥȚȖ ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȐȚ. ǴȖȡȤ ȐȕȚțȐȞȐȐ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȈ ȏȈȒȓȦȟȈȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȍȋȖ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȐ ȚȖȋȖ, ȟȚȖ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ, șȖȏȌȈȕȕȣȍ Ȍȓȧ ȒȖȕȚȘȖȓȧ Ȑ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ ȍșȚȍșȚȊȍȕȕȣȔȐ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȈȔȐ, ȊșȍȋȌȈ ȜțȕȒȞȐȖȕȐȘțȦȚ ȔȍȌȓȍȕȕȍȍ, ȕȍȎȍȓȐ ȘȈȏȊȐȊȈȦȚșȧ șȈȔȐ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȣ. ȅȚȖ ȚȘȍȉțȍȚ ȌȖȗȖȓȕȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȝ ȏȈȚȘȈȚ ȥȕȍȘȋȐȐ, țșȐȓȐȑ, ȘȍșțȘșȖȊ, Ȍȓȧ șȖȝȘȈȕȍȕȐȧ ȒȖȕȚȘȖȓȧ Ȑ țȗȘȈȊȓȧȍȔȖșȚȐ, Ȑ, Ȋ ȖȚȓȐȟȐȍ ȖȚ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȝ ȖȎȐȌȈȕȐȑ, ȗȘȐȒȓȈȌȣȊȈȍȔȣȍ țșȐȓȐȧ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȦȚșȧ ȕȍȈȌȍȒȊȈȚȕȣȔȐ ȌȖșȚȐȋȈȍȔȣȔ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȈȔ – ȧȊȓȍȕȐȍ, Ȍȓȧ ȖȉȢȧșȕȍȕȐȧ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȋȖ Ȑ ȊȊȖȌȐȚșȧ ȗȖȕȧȚȐȍ ȚȘȍȕȐȧ. Ǫ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȍ ȚȘȍȕȐȧ ȕȍȏȕȈȟȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȍ ȧȊȓȍȕȐȧ Ȑ ȜȈȒȚȣ, ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȧȡȐȍ ȕȈ ȔȐȒȘȖțȘȖȊȕȍ (ȔȐȒȘȖȥȜȜȍȒȚȣ), ȗȖȓțȟȈȦȚ ȔȖȡȤ Ȑ șȗȖșȖȉȕȖșȚȤ ȊȓȐȧȚȤ ȕȈ ȝȖȌ Ȋșȍȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȐ. ǺȍȔ șȈȔȣȔ ȔȐȒȘȖȥȜȜȍȒȚȣ, ȕȍ

1 Beyerchen, Clausewitz, Nonlinearity and the Unpredictability of War.

2 Simpkin, Richard. Race to the Swift: Thoughts on Twenty-First CenturyWarfare. London: Brassey’s Defence Publishers, 1985, p. 106.

3 Boyd, John R. Patterns of Conflict. Manuscript, August 1986. November 4 2004. 12 January 2011. <http://www.belisarius.com/modern_business_strategy/boyd/patterns/categories.htm>.

4 Clausewitz, On War, pȘ. 119-120.

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Ȕȍȕȧȧ șȊȖȍȑ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȣ, ȗȘȖȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȕȈ ȌȘțȋȖȔ ȔȈșȠȚȈȉȍ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ (ȕȈ ȔȈȒȘȖțȘȖȊȕȍ) Ȑ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȦȚ țȎȍ ȔȈȒȘȖȥȜȜȍȒȚ. DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ șȊȧȏȣȊȈȍȚ ȌȈȕȕȣȑ ȗȘȖȞȍșș ș țșȐȓȐȧȔȐ ȖȚȌȍȓȤȕȣȝ ȓȐȟȕȖșȚȍȑ, ȕȍȉȖȓȤȠȐȔȐ ȐȕȞȐȌȍȕȚȈȔȐ, șȚȖȓȒȕȖȊȍȕȐȧȔȐ Ȑ ȗȘ.1 ǿȚȖȉȣ ȖȉȢȧșȕȐȚȤ, ȒȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ șȓȈȉȖȍ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȍ ȗȘȐȖȉȘȍȚȈȍȚ șȗȖșȖȉȕȖșȚȤ ȗȘȖȐȏȊȖȌȐȚȤ ȏȕȈȟȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȑ ȥȜȜȍȒȚ, DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ ȗȘȐȉȍȋȈȍȚ Ȓ ȐȌȍȍ țșȐȓȍȕȐȧ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ ȘȍȈȓȐȏțȍȚșȧ ȟȍȘȍȏ ȒȈșȒȈȌȕȣȍ ȔȍȝȈȕȐȏȔȣ Ȑ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȍȚ ȔȈȓȣȔ șȖȉȣȚȐȧȔ ȏȈȗțșȒȈȚȤ șȖȊȍȘȠȍȕȕȖ ȕȍȖȎȐȌȈȕȕȣȍ Ȑ ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȣȍ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȣ, ȗȘȖȚȍȒȈȕȐȍ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝȕȍȗȖȌȌȈȍȚșȧ ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖȑ ȖȞȍȕȒȍ ȊȘȈȔȒȈȝ ȒȈȒȖȑ-ȓȐȉȖȚȍȖȘȐȐ2.

ǵȈȐȉȖȓȍȍ ȘȈȕȕȍȍ țȗȖȔȐȕȈȕȐȍ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȍȔ ȚȍȘȔȐȕȈ ȐȔȍȍȚ ȔȍșȚȖȊȗȐșȤȔȍȒ șȊȖȍȑ ȉțȌțȡȍȑ Ȏȍȕȍ ȖȚ 29 șȍȕȚȧȉȘȧ 1806ȋ. Ȑ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȖȔ ȌȐșȒțșșȐȐ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȈ ș ȀȈȘȕȋȖșȚȖȔ ȗȖ ȗȖȊȖȌț ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȗȖȚȍȕȞȐȈȓȈ ǷȘțșșȐȐ ȗȘȖȚȐȊ ǼȘȈȕȞțȏșȒȖȑ ȘȍșȗțȉȓȐȒȐ3. ǷȖșȓȍȌțȦȡȐȍ ȠȍșȚȤ ȓȍȚ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ ȘȈȉȖȚȈȍȚ ȕȈȌ țȋȓțȉȓȍȕȐȍȔ Ȑ ȘȈșȠȐȘȍȕȐȍȔ ȗȖȕȧȚȐȧ Ȑ ȗȘȍȌȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȍȚ ȠȈȋȐ ȗȖ șȖȏȌȈȕȐȦ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȐ ȖȉȡȍȋȖ ȚȘȍȕȐȧ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ șȚȈȓȈ ȉȣ ȗȖșȘȍȌȕȐȒȖȔ ȔȍȎȌț ȟȐșȚȖȑ ȚȍȖȘȐȍȑ Ȑ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȖșȚȧȔȐ ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȚȖȑ șȈȔȖȑ «ȍȌȐȕșȚȊȍȕȕȖȑ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȐȓȐ Ȕȍȕȍȍ șȖȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊțȍȚ ȜȈȒȚȖȘȈȔ, ȘȈȏȌȍȓȧȦȡȐȔ ȘȍȈȓȤȕțȦ ȊȖȑȕț ȖȚ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȕȈ ȉțȔȈȋȍ»4. Dz 1811ȋ. DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ Ȋ ȓȍȒȞȐȧȝ Ȋ ǩȍȘȓȐȕșȒȖȔ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȔ ȐȕșȚȐȚțȚȍ țȗȖȔȐȕȈȍȚ ȌȊȈ ȐșȚȖȟȕȐȒȈ ȚȖȋȖ, ȟȚȖ Ȗȕ ȕȈȏȊȈȓ «ȚȘȍȕȐȍ Ȋșȍȑ ȔȈȠȐȕȣ»: «ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȣȍ șȓțȟȈȑȕȣȍ șȖȉȣȚȐȧ, ȒȈșȈȦȡȐȍșȧ ȊșȍȋȖ, Ȑ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȣȍ ȚȘțȌȕȖșȚȐ, ȏȈȚȘțȌȕȧȦȡȐȍ ȈȒȒțȘȈȚȕȖȍ ȊȣȗȖȓȕȍȕȐȍ ȚȖȟȕȖȋȖ ȗȓȈȕȈ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ ȗȣȚȈȍȚșȧ șȜȖȘȔțȓȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȚȍȖȘȐȧ»5. Ǫ ȖȒȖȕȟȈȚȍȓȤȕȖȔ ȊȈȘȐȈȕȚȍ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȈȕȕȖȑ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȐ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ ȌȈȍȚ șȓȍȌțȦȡȐȑ șȗȐșȖȒȐșȚȖȟȕȐȒȖȊ ȖȉȡȍȋȖ ȚȘȍȕȐȧ:

x ȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȤ,

x ȜȐȏȐȟȍșȒȖȍ ȕȈȗȘȧȎȍȕȐȍ,

x ȕȍȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȖșȚȐ Ȑ ȕȍșȖȊȍȘȠȍȕșȚȊȖ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȐ, ȕȈ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ ȊȍȌȍȚșȧ ȊȖȑȕȈ,

x șȓțȟȈȑȕȣȍ șȖȉȣȚȐȧ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȚȤ,

x ȜȐȏȐȟȍșȒȐȍȐȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȐȧȊȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȐșȐȓȣ,

x ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȖșȚȤ, ȧȊȓȧȦȡȈȧșȧ șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍȔ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ș ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȖȔ, Ȑ

x ȘȈȏȘȣȊȣ ȔȍȎȌț ȗȘȐȟȐȕȈȔȐ Ȑ șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȧȔȐ ȊȖȑȕȣ6.

1 Beyerchen, Clausewitz, Nonlinearity and the Unpredictability of War.

2 Wheatley, Margaret J. Leadership and the New Science. San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler Publishers, Inc., 1999, pp. 87-88, ȈȚȈȒȎȍBeyerchen, Clausewitz, Nonlinearity and the Importance of Imagery, p. 72.

3 Paret, Clausewitz and the State, pp. 71, 74-75. 4 Clausewitz, On War, p. 119.

5 ǾȐȚȈȚȣ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȈ ȗȖ Paret, Clausewitz and the State, p. 191. 6 Watts, Clausewitzian Friction and Future War, p. 31.

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ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ǺȘȍȕȐȍ, ȒȈȒ ȍȋȖ ȐȕȚȍȘȗȘȍȚȐȘțȍȚ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ, șȖșȚȖȐȚ Ȑȏ ȌȊțȝ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȣȝ, ȕȖ șȊȧȏȈȕȕȣȝ ȔȍȎȌț șȖȉȖȑ ȈșȗȍȒȚȖȊ. ǷȍȘȊȣȑ ȖȚȘȈȎȈȍȚ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȣ șȖȗȘȖȚȐȊȓȍȕȐȧ, ȧȊȓȧȦȡȐȍșȧ ȕȍȖȚȢȍȔȓȍȔȖȑ ȟȈșȚȤȦ ȜȐȏȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȔȐȘȈ Ȑ șȊȧȏȈȕȕȣȍ ș ȚȈȒȐȔȐ ȗȖȕȧȚȐȧȔȐ, ȒȈȒ ȚȍȗȓȖ, ȊȚȖȘȖȍ ȕȈȟȈȓȖ ȚȍȘȔȖȌȐȕȈȔȐȒȐ Ȑ ȥȕȚȘȖȗȐȧ. ǺȘȍȕȐȍ ȖȚȘȈȎȈȍȚ ȜȈȒȚ șțȡȍșȚȊȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȖȊ, ȗȘȐȊȖȌȧȡȐȝ Ȓ ȌȐșșȐȗȈȞȐȐ ȥȕȍȘȋȐȐ, șȚȈȕȖȊȧșȤ ȜȖȘȔȖȑ ȕȈȘȈșȚȈȕȐȧ ȌȍȋȘȈȌȈȞȐȐ Ȑ ȝȈȖșȈ Ȋ șȐșȚȍȔȍ, ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȣȔ ȊȣȘȈȎȍȕȐȍȔ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȊȣșȚțȗȈȍȚ ȥȕȚȘȖȗȐȧ. ǺȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȈȘȔȐȧ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȖȚȒȘȣȚȖȑ ȍșȚȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȖȑ, Ȋ ȒȖȚȖȘțȦ ȕȍȗȘȍȘȣȊȕȖ ȗȖșȚțȗȈȦȚ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȣȍ ȊȐȌȣ ȥȕȍȘȋȐȐ Ȑ ȘȍșțȘșȖȊ, ȚȖ ȌȐșșȐȗȈȞȐȧ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȕȍȐȏȉȍȎȕȣȔ Ȑ ȕȍțșȚȘȈȕȐȔȣȔ ȍȍ șȊȖȑșȚȊȖȔ1. DzȈȒ șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍ, ȈȘȔȐȧ ȕȐȒȖȋȌȈ ȕȍ ȊȍȌȍȚ șȍȉȧ ȚȈȒ, ȒȈȒ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȓȖșȤ, Ȑ ȊșȍȋȌȈ ȐȔȍȍȚ ȔȍșȚȖ ȕȍȐȏȉȍȎȕȖȍ țȔȍȕȤȠȍȕȐȍ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȐ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȔȈȠȐȕȣ, ȟȚȖ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȕȍțșȚȘȈȕȐȔȖȑ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȖȑ ȌȈȎȍ Ȋ ȔȐȘȕȖȍ ȊȘȍȔȧ2. ǺȘȍȕȐȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ țȔȍȕȤȠȍȕȖ ȏȈ șȟȍȚ ȎȍșȚȒȖȑ ȌȐșȞȐȗȓȐȕȣ, țȟȍȕȐȑ, ȐȕșȗȍȒȞȐȑ, ȟȍȘȍȏ ȚȘȍȉȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȉȍȏțșȓȖȊȕȖȋȖ ȊȣȗȖȓȕȍȕȐȧ ȚȘȍȉȖȊȈȕȐȑ țșȚȈȊȖȊ Ȑ ȌȘțȋȐȝ ȕȖȘȔȈȚȐȊȕȣȝ ȌȖȒțȔȍȕȚȖȊ, ȘȍȋțȓȐȘțȦȡȐȝ ȗȖȊșȍȌȕȍȊȕțȦ ȎȐȏȕȤ ȈȘȔȐȐ, Ȑ, șȖȋȓȈșȕȖ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞț, ȕȍ Ȋ ȗȖșȓȍȌȕȦȦ ȖȟȍȘȍȌȤ, «ȎȍȓȍȏȕȖȑ ȊȖȓȍȑ» ȒȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȍȋȖ3.

ǬȘțȋȖȑ ȈșȗȍȒȚ ȚȘȍȕȐȧ șȊȧȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ș șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȖȑ ȚȍȖȘȐȍȑ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȐ Ȑ ȗȖȕȧȚȐȍȔ «ȠțȔȈ» Ȋ șȐșȚȍȔȍ. ȅȕȚȘȖȗȐȧ Ȑ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȧ ȐȔȍȦȚ ȐȕȚȍȘȍșȕȖȍ ȜȖȘȔȈȓȤȕȖȍ șȝȖȌșȚȊȖ, ȚȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȖȉȈ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖȑ ȔȍȘȖȑ ȊȍȘȖȧȚȕȖșȚȐ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ șȐșȚȍȔȣ. ǿȍȔ Ȕȍȕȍȍ ȊȍȘȖȧȚȕȣȔ (ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȣȔ) ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ șȐșȚȍȔȣ, ȚȍȔ ȉȖȓȤȠȍȍ ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȖ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȐ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖ Ȍȓȧ ȖȗȐșȈȕȐȧ ȍȍ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ Ȑ ȚȍȔ ȉȖȓȍȍ «ȠțȔȕȖȑ» ȖȕȈ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ. ǻȔȍȕȤȠȍȕȐȍ ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȈ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȐ, ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖȑ Ȍȓȧ ȖȗȐșȈȕȐȧ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ șȐșȚȍȔȣ, ȚȖ ȍșȚȤ țȔȍȕȤȠȍȕȐȍ ȠțȔȈ Ȋ șȐșȚȍȔȍ, ȖȏȕȈȟȈȍȚ ȍȍ ȗȘȍȊȘȈȡȍȕȐȍ Ȋ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔțȦ. ǬȈȕȕȣȑ ȗȘȖȞȍșș ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ Ȗȉȍșȗȍȟȍȕ ȗȖșȘȍȌșȚȊȖȔ ȐȏȊȓȍȟȍȕȐȍ Ȑȏ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȖȋȖ ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȈ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȐ, ȚȖ ȍșȚȤ ȟȍȘȍȏ ȊȣȌȍȓȍȕȐȍ ȗȖȓȍȏȕȖȋȖ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȋȖ șȐȋȕȈȓȈ Ȑȏ ȠțȔȈ. ȅȚȖȚ ȗȖȌȝȖȌ ȔȖȎȍȚ șȓțȎȐȚȤ ȝȖȘȖȠȍȑ ȔȍȚȈȜȖȘȖȑ Ȍȓȧ ȖȗȐșȈȕȐȧ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȈ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ ȕȈ ȊȖȑȕȍ, Ȑ țȎȍ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ ȐȕȚțȐȚȐȊȕȖ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȓ, ȟȚȖ ȗȘȐȒȈȏȣ Ȑ ȗȓȈȕȣ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ șȐȋȕȈȓȈȔȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ «ȏȈȠțȔȓȧȦȚșȧ», ȐșȒȈȎȈȦȚșȧ Ȋ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȍ șȊȖȍȋȖ ȘȈșȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕȍȕȐȧ ȗȖ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȐȍȘȈȘȝȐȐ, Ȑ ȌȈȕȕȣȑ ȜȈȒȚ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ ȗȖȓȕȖșȚȤȦ ȐșȒȓȦȟȐȚȤ. ǭȋȖ ȝȖȘȖȠȖ ȐȏȊȍșȚȕȈȧ ȌȐșȒțșșȐȧ Ȗ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȗȖȓțȟȍȕȐȧ ȚȖȟȕȖȑ ȘȈȏȊȍȌȣȊȈȚȍȓȤȕȖȑ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȐ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȚȘȈȒȚȖȊȈȚȤșȧ ȒȈȒ ȐȕȊȍȘșȕȈȧ ȗȍȘșȗȍȒȚȐȊȈ ȌȈȕȕȖȑ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȣ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȧ, ȗȖȌȕȐȔȈȧșȤ ȗȖ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȐȍȘȈȘȝȐȐ, ȕȍȐȏȉȍȎȕȖ ȐșȒȈȎȈȍȚșȧ4. ǹ ȥȚȖȑ ȚȖȟȒȐ ȏȘȍȕȐȧ ȐȏȊȍșȚȕȈȧ

1 ǪȏȈȐȔȖșȊȧȏȤ ȗȖȕȧȚȐȑ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȤ, ȥȕȚȘȖȗȐȧ, ȌȐșșȐȗȈȞȐȧ șȔȖȚȘȐ, ȕȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ, Ȋ: Prigogine, Ilya and Isabelle Stengers, Order Out of Chaos. New York: Bantam, 1984.

2 Cardwell, Donald S. L. From Watt to Clausius: The Rise of Thermodynamics in the Early Industrial Age. London: Heinemann, 1971, pp. 186-294.

3 Clausewitz, On War, 119.

4 Ibid, pp. 101, 117-118.

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ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȔȍȚȈȜȖȘȈ Ȗ «ȚțȔȈȕȍ ȊȖȑȕȣ» ȔȖȎȍȚ ȐȕȚȍȘȗȘȍȚȐȘȖȊȈȚȤșȧ ȒȈȒ ȌȍȔȖȕșȚȘȈȞȐȧ ȖȉȢȍȒȚȐȊȕȖȑ ȕȍțșȚȘȈȕȐȔȖșȚȐ ȌȐșșȐȗȈȞȐȐ Ȑ ȠțȔȈ, ȗȘȐȊȖȌȧȡȍȑ Ȓ ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȖșȚȐ ȊȖȑȕȣ1.

DzȈȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȣȑ șȒȈȟȖȒ Ȋ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȧȝ ȗȘȐȊȍȓ Ȓ ȗȖȧȊȓȍȕȐȦ ȚȖȟȒȐ ȏȘȍȕȐȧ Ȑ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȐ, șȖȋȓȈșȕȖ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ ȗȘȍȐȔțȡȍșȚȊȖ Ȋ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȧȝ ȗȖȔȖȎȍȚ ȘȈȏȊȍȧȚȤ ȚțȔȈȕ ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȑ «ȗȖȕȧȚȤ Ȋșȍ ȕȈ ȗȖȓȍ ȉȖȧ»2. ǬȈȕȕȖȑ ȚȖȟȒȐ ȏȘȍȕȐȧ ȗȘȐȌȍȘȎȐȊȈȓșȧ ȈȌȔȐȘȈȓ ǪǴǹ ǹȀǨ ǻȐȓȤȧȔ Ƕțȥȍȕș (William Owens) șȟȐȚȈȊȠȐȑ, ȟȚȖ ȘȍȊȖȓȦȞȐȧ Ȋ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȔ Ȍȍȓȍ, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȐȊȠȈȧ ȘȍȈȓȐȏȖȊȈȚȤ ȗȘȍȊȖșȝȖȌșȚȊȖ ǹȀǨ ȗȖ ȊșȍȔ ȕȈȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧȔ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȉȖȘșȚȊȈ, Ȉ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȗȖȧȊȐȊȠȐȍșȧ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȕȈȕȖșȐȚȤ ȚȖȟȍȟȕȣȍ țȌȈȘȣ ȉȘȖșȈȦȚ ȊȣȏȖȊ «țȚȊȍȘȎȌȍȕȐȧȔ șȍȌȐȕȣ ȋȓțȉȖȒȖȑ, ȟȚȖ Ȋșȍ ȚȈȒȚȐȒȐ, ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȐ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȐ Ȑ ȌȖȒȚȘȐȕȣ ȋȖȊȖȘȧȚ Ȗ ȚțȔȈȕȍ Ȑ ȚȘȍȕȐȐ ȊȖȑȕȣ»3. ǺȖȟȒȈ ȏȘȍȕȐȧ, șȖȋȓȈșȕȖ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖȍ ȗȘȍȐȔțȡȍșȚȊȖ Ȋ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȧȝ, ȖșȖȉȍȕȕȖ Ȋ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȖȕȕȣȝ, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȐȚ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȦȡȍȑ Ȑȝ șȚȖȘȖȕȍ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȖ ȘȍȠȈȚȤ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔț țȔȍȕȤȠȍȕȐȧ ȐȓȐ ȗȖȓȕȖȋȖ ȐșȒȓȦȟȍȕȐȧ «ȚțȔȈȕȈ ȊȖȑȕȣ», ȖșȚȈȊȓȧȧ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ ȗȍȘȍȌ șȚȍȕȖȑ ȕȍȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȧ Ȑ ȕȍȏȕȈȕȐȧ, ȌȖ șȐȝ ȗȖȘ ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ șȐȓȤȕȈ șȘȍȌȐ ȏȈȗȈȌȕȖȋȖ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȐșȚȍȉȓȐȠȔȍȕȚȈ. ǼȈȒȚ, ȋȖȊȖȘȧȡȐȑ Ȗ ȕȍȏȘȍȓȖșȚȐ ȏȈȗȈȌȕȖȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ, ȖșȖȉȍȕȕȖ Ȋ ǹȀǨ. Ǭȓȧ ȏȈȗȈȌȕȖȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȔȣșȓȐ Ȋ 21 ȊȍȒȍ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȑ ȗȖȌȝȖȌ Ȓ ȊȖȑȕȍ ȗȖȒȈ ȖșȚȈȍȚșȧ ȗȘȍȊȈȓȐȘțȦȡȐȔ, Ȑ ȖȕȈ ȏȈȕȧȚȈ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȒȖȑ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȉȣȓȐ ȘȍȠȍȕȣ ȍȡȍ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȍȔ4. ǹȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȍ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ ȖȉȓȈȌȈȦȚ ȚȈȒȐȔȐ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȧȔȐ țȔȍȕȤȠȐȚȤ ȚȘȍȕȐȍ Ȑ ȘȈȏȊȍȧȚȤ ȚțȔȈȕ ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȘȈȕȤȠȍ Ȑ ȕȍ șȕȐȓȐșȤ. ǷȘȖȉȓȍȔȈ ȏȈȒȓȦȟȈȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȚȖȔ, ȟȚȖ ȊȖȑȕț ȕȍȓȤȏȧ șȊȍșȚȐ Ȓ ȉȖȔȉȈȘȌȐȘȖȊȒȍ ȗȈșșȐȊȕȖȋȖ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ, Ȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȈȧ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȧ ǵǨǺǶ ȗȘȖȚȐȊ ȆȋȖșȓȈȊȐȐ, ȊȖȑȕȈ Ȋ ǰȘȈȒȍ șȖ Ȋșȍȑ ȖȟȍȊȐȌȕȖșȚȤȦ ȌȍȔȖȕșȚȘȐȘțȦȚ ȌȈȕȕȣȑ ȜȈȒȚ. ǸȈșșȍȐȊȈȕȐȍ ȚțȔȈȕȈ Ȑ țȔȍȕȤȠȍȕȐȍ ȚȘȍȕȐȧ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȕȍȓȤȏȧ șȘȈȊȕȐȊȈȚȤ ș ȐȏțȟȍȕȐȍȔ ȕȍȐȏȊȍșȚȕȖȑ ȏȍȔȓȐ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȒȈȎȌȈȧ ȕȖȊȈȧ ȥȒșȗȍȌȐȞȐȧ țȔȍȕȤȠȈȍȚ ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȖ ȉȍȓȣȝ ȗȧȚȍȕ ȕȈ ȒȈȘȚȍ. ǷȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȖ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȎȐȊȣȔ Ȑ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȟȕȣȔ, ȔȍȕȧȦȡȐȔ Ȑ ȘȍȖȘȋȈȕȐȏțȦȡȐȔ șȈȔȖȍ șȍȉȧ, ȟȚȖ ȌȍȓȈȍȚ ȉȍșȗȖȓȍȏȕȣȔȐ ȟȐșȚȖ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȔȍȚȖȌȣ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ ȌȈȕȕȣȝ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔ5.

ǶȌȕȈȒȖ ȍȡȍ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȓ Ȗ șțȡȍșȚȊȖȊȈȕȐȐ «șȔȈȏȖȒ», ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȚ țȔȍȕȤȠȐȚȤ ȚȘȍȕȐȍ Ȋ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȔȈȠȐȕȍ. Ǫ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ ȗȘȐȔȍȘȈ Ȗȕ țȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚ ȉȖȍȊȖȑ ȖȗȣȚ, țȟȍȕȐȧ Ȋ țșȓȖȊȐȧȝ, ȗȘȐȉȓȐȎȍȕȕȣȝ Ȓ ȉȖȍȊȣȔ, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȡȐȍ ȖȜȐȞȍȘȈȔ ȗȘȐȖȉȘȍșȚȐ ȖȗȣȚ ȉȖȘȤȉȣ ș ȚȘȍȕȐȍȔ, Ȑ ȋȍȕȐȑ ȓȐȌȍȘȈ – ȒȈȒ Ȋ șȓțȟȈȍ ș ǵȈȗȖȓȍȖȕȖȔ6. ǬȈȕȕȣȍ ȔȍȘȖȗȘȐȧȚȐȧ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȚ ȔȈȕȐȗțȓȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȖȚȕȖșȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȔ

1 Beyerchen, Clausewitz, Nonlinearity and the Unpredictability of War.

2 Owens, William A. “System-Of-Systems: US Emerging Dominant Battlefield Awareness Promises To Dissipate the “Fog of War,” Armed Forces Journal International, January 1996, p. 47.

3 Owens, Lifting the Fog of War, p. 15.

4 Watts, Clausewitzian Friction and Future War, pȘ. 142-143. 5 Gray, Why Strategy is Difficult, p. 83.

6 Clausewitz, On War, pp. 100-103, 122.

126

ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȉȈȓȈȕșȖȔ ȚȘȍȕȐȧ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȉȖȘșȚȊțȦȡȐȝ șȚȖȘȖȕ, ȚȍȔ șȈȔȣȔ ȌȖșȚȐȋȈȧ ȗȘȍȐȔțȡȍșȚȊȈ ȕȈ ȗȖȓȍ ȉȖȧ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȚȘȍȕȐȍ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȍȚșȧ ȒȈȒ «ȊșȍȗȘȖȕȐȞȈȦȡȈȧ șȐȓȈ… ȕȈ șȚȖȘȖȕȍ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ». ǫȍȘȔȈȕșȒȐȑ ȋȍȕȠȚȈȉ, Ȍȓȧ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȋȖ ȀȈȘȕȋȖșȚ șȊȖȐȔ ȈȊȚȖȘȐȚȍȚȖȔ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȓ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȣȑ ȒȘȍȌȐȚ ȌȖȊȍȘȐȧ, ȗȖȖȡȘȧȊȠȐȑ ȐȕȌȐȊȐȌțȈȓȤȕțȦ ȐȕȐȞȐȈȚȐȊț Ȑ ȕȍȏȈȊȐșȐȔȖșȚȤ șțȎȌȍȕȐȑ, șȖȌȍȘȎȈȓ ȚȈȒțȦ șȔȈȏȒț țȎȍ

ȊȐȕșȚȐȚțȞȐȈȓȐȏȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȖȑ ȜȖȘȔȍ1.

ǪȕȈșȚȖȧȡȍȍ ȊȘȍȔȧ ȗȘȍȌȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȦȚșȧ ȗȖȗȣȚȒȐ ȜȖȘȔțȓȐȘȖȊȒȐ ȗȖȕȧȚȐȧ ȚȘȍȕȐȧ Ȋ ȕȖȊȣȝ țșȓȖȊȐȧȝ. ǷȘȐ ȥȚȖȔ ȊȣȌȍȓȧȦȚșȧ ȚȘȐ ȉȈȏȐșȕȣȝ ȐșȚȖȟȕȐȒȈ ȚȘȍȕȐȧ Ȋ șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȝ ȊȖȑȕȈȝ:

1.ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȐȧ, ȕȈȒȓȈȌȣȊȈȍȔȣȍ ȜȐȏȐȟȍșȒȐȔȐ Ȑ ȗȖȏȕȈȊȈȚȍȓȤȕȣȔȐ ȗȘȍȌȍȓȈȔȐ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȒȈ, ȊȍȓȐȟȐȕȣ Ȑ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȕȍȐȏȉȍȎȕȖ țșȐȓȐȊȈȦȚșȧ ȐȕȚȍȕșȐȊȕȣȔȐ șȚȘȍșșȈȔȐ, ȕȈȗȘȧȎȍȕȐȧȔȐȐȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊȍȕȕȖșȚȤȦ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȉȖȧ;

2.ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȖȕȕȈȧ ȕȍȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȖșȚȤ Ȑ ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȣȍ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȐȧ ȔȍȎȌț ȊȖșȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȍȔȖȑ Ȑ ȈȒȚțȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȖșȚȤȦ, ȧȊȓȧȦȡȐȍșȧ, Ȋ ȒȖȕȍȟȕȖȔ șȟȍȚȍ, ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȖȔ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȍȕȕȖ-ȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȖȑ ȌȐșȗȍȘșȐȐ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȐ ȊȖ ȊȕȍȠȕȍȑ șȘȍȌȍ, Ȋ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȧȝ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ Ȑ șȖȦȏȕȐȒȖȊ, Ȉ ȚȈȒȎȍ Ȋ ȔȣșȓȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȝ ȒȖȕșȚȘțȒȞȐȧȝ ȐȕȌȐȊȐȌțȈȓȤȕȣȝ țȟȈșȚȕȐȒȖȊ ș ȖȉȍȐȝ șȚȖȘȖȕ;

3.șȚȘțȒȚțȘȕȣȍ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȐ ȉȖȍȊȣȝ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȖȊ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȔȖȋțȚ ȊȣȏȊȈȚȤ ȌȖȓȋȖșȘȖȟȕțȦ ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȖșȚȤ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȖȊ Ȑ ȕȍȖȎȐȌȈȕȕȖȍ ȗȘȖȧȊȓȍȕȐȍ ȜȍȕȖȔȍȕȖȊ ȗȖșȘȍȌșȚȊȖȔ țșȐȓȍȕȐȧ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ ȕȍȗȖșȚȐȎȐȔȖ ȔȈȓȍȕȤȒȐȝ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȐȑ Ȑ ȕȍȗȘȍȌȊȐȌȐȔȣȝ șȖȉȣȚȐȑ (ȐȓȐ, ȕȈȖȉȖȘȖȚ, ȗȘȖȐȏȊȖȌȐȚȤ ȕȐȟȚȖȎȕȖ ȔȈȓȣȍ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣ ȖȚ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȝ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ)2.

Ǫ ȘȧȌȍ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȚȍȖȘȍȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȌȖȒțȔȍȕȚȖȊ ȔȖȎȕȖ ȊșȚȘȍȚȐȚȤ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ ȜȈȒȚȈ ȕȍțșȚȘȈȕȐȔȖșȚȐ ȚȘȍȕȐȧ. ǵȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ, Ȋ «ǶȉȢȍȌȐȕȍȕȕȖȔ ȊȐȌȍȕȐȐ 2020» (Joint Vision 2020) ȔȖȎȕȖ ȊșȚȘȍȚȐȚȤ șȓȍȌțȦȡȍȍ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȍ ȚȘȍȕȐȧ: «…ȚȘȍȕȐȍ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȕȍȖȚȢȍȔȓȍȔȣȔ Ȋ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȧȝ. ǶȉȢȍȌȐȕȍȕȕȣȍ șȐȓȣ 2020 ȉțȌțȚ șȚȘȍȔȐȚȤșȧ șȖȏȌȈȊȈȚȤ “ȌȐșȉȈȓȈȕș ȚȘȍȕȐȧ” ȊșȊȖȍȔ ȎȍȓȈȕȐȐ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȚȤ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ, ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȍȕȕȣȍ Ȋ ȌȈȕȕȖȔ ȌȖȒțȔȍȕȚȍ, ȖȌȕȈȒȖ ȜțȕȌȈȔȍȕȚȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȐșȚȖȟȕȐȒȐ ȚȘȍȕȐȧ ȕȍ ȔȖȋțȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȐșȒȓȦȟȍȕȣ. Ǵȣ ȗȖȉȍȌȐȔ, ȕȖ Ȕȣ ȕȍ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ ȖȎȐȌȈȚȤ, ȟȚȖ ȊȖȑȕȈ Ȋ ȉțȌțȡȍȔ șȚȈȕȍȚ ȓȍȋȟȍ ȐȓȐ ȉȍșȒȘȖȊȕȍȍ»3. ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖ ȗȘȐȏȕȈȚȤ, ȟȚȖ ȗȍȘȍȟȐșȓȍȕȕȣȍ ȊȣȠȍ ȐșȚȖȟȕȐȒȐ ȚȘȍȕȐȧ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȕȍȖȚȢȍȔȓȍȔȣȔȐ șȚȘțȒȚțȘȕȣȔȐ șȊȖȑșȚȊȈȔȐ șȐșȚȍȔȣ, ȟȚȖ ȌȍȓȈȍȚ ȍȋȖ ȕȍțȕȐȟȚȖȎȐȔȣȔ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȖȔ

1 Ibid, pp. 17, 167, 198, 407-408, 560.

2 Watts, Clausewitzian Friction and Future War, p. 124-125.

3 U.S. Ministry of Defence. Joint Vision 2020. America’s Military: Preparing for Tomorrow, Shelton, Henry H. General, Chairman of the Joint Cheifs of Staff Office of Primary Responsibility: Director for Strategic Plans and Policy, J5; Strategy Division, US Government Printing Office, Washington DC, June 2000, p. 6.

127

ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȝ ȚȍȖȘȐȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ. ǩȖȓȍȍ ȚȖȋȖ, ȍșȓȐ ȌȈȎȍ ȐșȝȖȌȐȚȤ Ȑȏ ȋȐȗȖȚȍȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ șȐȚțȈȞȐȐ, ȟȚȖ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȐ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȚ țȉȘȈȚȤ Ȋșȍ ȐșȚȖȟȕȐȒȐ ȚȘȍȕȐȧ, ȚȍȔ ȕȍ Ȕȍȕȍȍ Ȕȣ ȊșȍȋȌȈ ȉțȌȍȔ șȚȖȧȚȤ ȗȍȘȍȌ ȜȈȒȚȖȘȖȔ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ ȐșȒȓȦȟȐȚȤ – ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȧȔȐ ȐȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȐȧȔȐ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȟȍșȒȖȑ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȣ1.

2.5.3 ǹȓțȟȈȑ ȕȈ ȊȖȑȕȍ. ǹȓȍȌțȦȡȐȔ ȕȍȖȚȢȍȔȓȍȔȣȔ ȈȚȘȐȉțȚȖȔ ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȗȘȐȊȖȌȧȡȐȔ Ȓ ȗȖȧȊȓȍȕȐȦ ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȖșȚȐ, ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ șȓțȟȈȑ: «ȕȐ ȖȌȕȈ ȌȘțȋȈȧ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȟȍșȒȈȧ ȈȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȤ ȕȍ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȚȈȒ ȗȖșȚȖȧȕȕȖ ȐȓȐ țȕȐȊȍȘșȈȓȤȕȖ șȊȧȏȈȕȕȖȑ șȖ șȓțȟȈȍȔ, ȒȈȒ ȊȖȑȕȈ». DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ ȕȈșȚȈȐȊȈȍȚ ȕȈ ȚȖȔ, ȟȚȖ ȊȖȑȕȈ Ȋ șȊȖȍȑ ȟțȊșȚȊȐȚȍȓȤȕȖșȚȐ ȗȖ ȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȦ Ȓ șȓțȟȈȦ șȘȖȌȕȐ ȉȖȓȤȠȍ ȒȈȘȚȖȟȕȖȑ ȐȋȘȍ, ȕȍȎȍȓȐ ȒȈȒȖȑ-ȓȐȉȖ ȌȘțȋȖȑ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȟȍșȒȖȑ ȌȍȧȚȍȓȤȕȖșȚȐ2. ǹȓțȟȈȑ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ șȊȧȏȈȕȕȣȔ ș ȚȘȍȕȐȍȔ Ȑ ȚțȔȈȕȖȔ ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȒȖȋȌȈ șȖȊȍȘȠȍȕȕȖ ȕȍȏȕȈȟȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȍ Ȑ ȕȍȏȈȔȍȚȕȣȍ șȖȉȣȚȐȧ ȔȖȋțȚ țșȐȓȐȊȈȚȤșȧ Ȑ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚȤ Ȓ ȕȍȗȘȖȗȖȘȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȔ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȈȔ, Ȉ ȌȖșȚȐȋȈȍȔȣȑ ȗȍȘȍȓȖȔ ȗȖȘȖȑ ȖȗȐȘȈȍȚșȧ ȕȈ ȜȈȒȚȖȘȣ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ «…ȌȍȚȈȓȤȕȖ ȐȏȊȍșȚȕȣ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȚȍȔ, ȒȚȖ ȉȣȓ Ȋ ȥȗȐȞȍȕȚȘȍ (ȉȖȧ)»3. ǷȖȗȣȚȒȐ Ȏȍ ȊȣȧȊȐȚȤ ȗȘȐȟȐȕȕȖ-șȓȍȌșȚȊȍȕȕȣȍ șȊȧȏȐ Ȋ ȘȈȏȊȖȘȈȟȐȊȈȦȡȐȝșȧ șȖȉȣȚȐȧȝ ȕȍȐȏȉȍȎȕȖ șȚȈȓȒȐȊȈȦȚșȧ ș ȖȚșțȚșȚȊȐȍȔ ȚȖȟȕȖȑ Ȑ ȗȖȓȕȖȑ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȐ. «ǵȐȋȌȍ ȎȐȏȕȤ ȕȍ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȚȈȒȖȑ ȗțȉȓȐȟȕȖȑ, ȒȈȒ ȕȈ ȊȖȑȕȍ, ȋȌȍ ȜȈȒȚȣ ȘȍȌȒȖ ȉȣȊȈȦȚ ȗȖȓȕȖșȚȤȦ ȧșȕȣ, Ȉ ȍȡȍ Ȕȍȕȍȍ ȧșȕȣȔȐ ȉȣȊȈȦȚ ȋȓțȉȐȕȕȣȍ ȔȖȚȐȊȣ. ǶȕȐ ȔȖȋțȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȕȈȘȖȟȐȚȖ șȒȘȣȚȣ ȒȖȔȈȕȌȖȊȈȕȐȍȔ. ǭșȓȐ Ȏȍ ȖȕȐ ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȧȚ ȔȐȔȖȓȍȚȕȖ Ȑ șȓțȟȈȑȕȖ, ȚȖ ȊȖȖȉȡȍ ȔȖȋțȚ ȕȍ șȚȈȚȤ ȌȖșȚȖȧȕȐȍȔ ȐșȚȖȘȐȐ»4.

ǽȖȚȧ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ ȕȐȋȌȍ ȕȍ ȌȈȍȚ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȧ șȓțȟȈȧ, ȘȧȌ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȍȑ ȊȣȌȍȓȧȦȚ ȚȘȐ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȣȝ ȚȐȗȈ șȓțȟȈȍȊ. ǷȍȘȊȣȑ șȊȧȏȈȕ ș ȖȋȘȖȔȕȣȔ ȟȐșȓȖȔ șȓțȟȈȑȕȣȝ șȖȉȣȚȐȑ ȕȈ ȊȖȑȕȍ, Ȍȓȧ ȈȕȈȓȐȏȈ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȠȐȘȖȒȖ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȍȚșȧ șȖȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊțȦȡȐȑ ȔȈȚȍȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȑ ȈȗȗȈȘȈȚ, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȡȐȑ șȚȘȖȐȚȤ șȚȖȝȈșȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ ȉȖȍȊȣȝ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȑ. ǪȚȖȘȖȑ ȚȐȗ șȊȧȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ș ȘȈșȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕȍȕȐȍȔ ȔȐȒȘȖȗȘȐȟȐȕ Ȑ ȔȐȒȘȖșȖȉȣȚȐȑ ȕȈ ȔȈȒȘȖțȘȖȊȍȕȤ, ȒȖȋȌȈ șȖȉȣȚȐȧ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ țȟȍșȚȤ Ȑ ȗȘȐȕȧȚȤ Ȓ șȊȍȌȍȕȐȦ, ȕȍȐȏȉȍȎȕȖ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȦȚșȧ ȒȈȒ șȓțȟȈȑȕȣȍ. Ƕȕ ȚȍșȕȖ șȊȧȏȈȕ ș ȚȘȍȕȐȍȔ, ȊȔȍșȚȍ ș ȒȖȚȖȘȣȔ șȖȏȌȈȍȚ ȕȍȐȏȉȍȎȕțȦ ȕȍȘȈȏȉȍȘȐȝț ȊȖȑȕȣ. ǺȘȍȚȐȑ ȚȐȗ șȓțȟȈȧ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȖȔ ȚȍȖȘȍȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȐȑ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȕȍȐȏȉȍȎȕȖ ȕȈȒȓȈȌȣȊȈȦȚ ȠȖȘȣ ȕȈ ȊȖșȗȘȐȧȚȐȍ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȖșȚȐ, Ȋ ȚȖȔ ȟȐșȓȍ Ȑ ȊȖȑȕț5.

ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȓ, ȟȚȖ ȐȕȚȍȘȈȒȚȐȊȕȈȧ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȈ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȕȍȐȏȉȍȎȕȖ ȋȍȕȍȘȐȘțȍȚ șȓțȟȈȑ, ȐșȒȓȦȟȈȧ ȈȕȈȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ Ȑ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȐȊȈȧ

1 Watts, Clausewitzian Friction and Future War, p. 127. 2 Clausewitz, On War, pp. 85, 86.

3 Ibid, p. 595.

4 Ibid, p. 156.

5 Beyerchen, Clausewitz, Nonlinearity and the Importance of Imagery, p. 73.

128

ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȚȖȟȕȖȋȖ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȕȐȧ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȖȊ ȊȖȑȕȣ. ǪȖȑȕȈ ȕȍ ȐȔȍȍȚ ȒȈȒȐȝȓȐȉȖ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȣȝ ȋȘȈȕȐȞ, Ȑ Ȋșȍ ȍȍ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȣ ȕȍȗȘȍȘȣȊȕȖ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊțȦȚ ȌȘțȋ ș ȌȘțȋȖȔ. ǹȚȘȍȔȓȍȕȐȧ țȑȚȐ ȖȚ ȞȍȓȖșȚȕȖșȚȐ ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȊȣȘȊȈȚȤ ȚȖȚ ȐȓȐ ȐȕȖȑ ȍȍ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚ Ȑȏ ȒȖȕȚȍȒșȚȈ, ȟȚȖȉȣ șȊȍșȚȐ ȖȉȡțȦ ȒȈȘȚȐȕț Ȓ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȗȘȐȊȣȟȕȣȔ Ȍȓȧ șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȏȈȗȈȌȕȖȋȖ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȒȈ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȔ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȍȕȐȧȔ, ȖȉȘȍȟȍȕȣ. ǷȖȗȣȚȒȐ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȈȚȤ șȊȖȌ ȕȍȐȏȔȍȕȕȣȝ ȏȈȒȖȕȖȊ ȐȓȐ ȗȘȐȕȞȐȗȖȊ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȉțȌțȚ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȐȔȣ ȒȖ ȊșȍȔ «ȗȖȝȖȎȐȔ» ȒȖȕȚȍȒșȚȈȔ, ȕȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȉȍșȗȖȓȍȏȕȣ, ȕȖ Ȑ ȖȗȈșȕȣ, ȚȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȧȚ Ȓ ȜȖȘȔȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȦ ȎȍșȚȒȖȋȖ, ȔȍȝȈȕȐșȚȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȧ, ȒȖȚȖȘȖȍ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ȕȍ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ șȗȘȈȊȐȚȤșȧ ș ȖȠȍȓȖȔȓȧȦȡȐȔȐ ȘȍȈȓȐȧȔȐ ȕȈșȚȖȧȡȍȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ. ǹȗȖșȖȉȕȖșȚȤ Ȓ ȈȌȈȗȚȈȞȐȐ ȖșȚȈȍȚșȧ ȉȍȏțșȓȖȊȕȣȔ ȚȘȍȉȖȊȈȕȐȍȔ ȒȈȒ ȗȖ ȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȦ ȒșȖȓȌȈȚțȊȘȍȈȓȤȕȖȔ ȉȖȦ, ȚȈȒ ȐȒșȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȔ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȔȌȖȒȚȘȐȕȈȔ1.

ǪȖȍȕȕȈȧ ȐșȚȖȘȐȧ ȗȖȓȕȈ ȗȘȐȔȍȘȖȊ ȒȈȒ ȎȍșȚȒȖȋȖ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȋȐȉȒȖȋȖ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ – ȖȚ ȐȕșȚȐȚțȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȐȕȍȘȞȐȐ ȌȖ ȗȖȓȕȣȝ ȥȕȚțȏȐȈȏȔȈ ȏȈȒȓȦȟȍȕȐȑ ȗȖ ȘȈȌȐȒȈȓȤȕȖ ȕȖȊȖȔț ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȦ. ǷȖșȓȍ ǷȍȘȊȖȑ ȔȐȘȖȊȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȘțȒȖȊȖȌșȚȊȖ ȉȘȐȚȈȕșȒȖȑ ȈȘȔȐȐ, ȎȍȓȈȧ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȐȚȤ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣ ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȋ ȊȣȋȖȌȕȖȔ Ȍȓȧ șȍȉȧ șȊȍȚȍ, ȏȈȗȘȍȚȐȓȖ Ȑ ȐșȒȈȏȐȓȖ ȈȕȈȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȊȣȊȖȌȣ, ȐȕșȚȐȚțȞȐȈȕȈȓȐȏȐȘțȧ ȈȕȚȐȐȕȚȍȓȓȍȒȚțȈȓȤȕțȦ ȒțȓȤȚțȘț2. Ǫ țșȓȖȊȐȧȝ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȗȈȘȐȚȍȚȈ ȚȍȖȘȍȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȒȐ, ȗȖȌȌȍȘȎȈȕȕȣȍ șȒȘȖȔȕȣȔȐ ȘȍșțȘșȕȣȔȐ ȐȕȊȍșȚȐȞȐȧȔȐ Ȑ ȐȕȕȖȊȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȑ ȌȖȒȚȘȐȕȖȑ ȉȓȐȞȒȘȐȋȈ, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȐȓȐ ǫȍȘȔȈȕȐȐ ȌȖȉȐȚȤșȧ ȥȒșȚȘȈȖȘȌȐȕȈȘȕȣȝ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȖȊ3.

ǪȏȈȐȔȖșȊȧȏȤ ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȖșȚȐ Ȑ șȓțȟȈȧ ȊȗȍȘȊȣȍ ȉȣȓȈ ȋȓțȉȖȒȖ ȗȘȖȘȈȉȖȚȈȕȈ Ȋ ȘȈȉȖȚȈȝ ǷțȈȕȒȈȘȍ, Ȑ ȕȍ șȓțȟȈȑȕȖ, ȟȚȖ Ȗȕ ȚȈȒ ȠȐȘȖȒȖ ȞȐȚȐȘțȍȚșȧ șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȔȐ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȧȔȐ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȐ. ǷȖȌȝȖȌ ȗȖ ȊȣȌȍȓȍȕȐȦ ȚȘȍȝ ȚȐȗȖȊ șȓțȟȈȧ, ȊșȚȘȍȟȈȦȡȐȑșȧ Ȋ ȔȖȕȖȋȘȈȜȐȐ «Ƕ ȊȖȑȕȍ», ȉȣȓ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȈȕ ǷțȈȕȒȈȘȍ, Ȑ, șȒȖȘȍȍ ȊșȍȋȖ, DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ ȉȣȓ ȏȕȈȒȖȔ ș ȍȋȖ ȘȈȉȖȚȈȔȐ4. ǷțȈȕȒȈȘȍ țȚȊȍȘȎȌȈȓ, ȟȚȖ șȓțȟȈȑȕȖșȚȤ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ șȊȍȌȍȕȈ Ȓ ȚȘȍȔ ȚȐȗȈȔ: șȚȈȚȐșȚȐȟȍșȒȐ șȓțȟȈȑȕȣȔ ȜȍȕȖȔȍȕȈȔ; țșȐȓȍȕȐȦ ȔȐȒȘȖȗȘȐȟȐȕ Ȑ Ȓ ȜțȕȒȞȐȐ ȈȕȈȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ șȓȍȗȖȚȣ. ǷȍȘȊȣȑ ȚȐȗ șȓțȟȈȑȕȣȝ șȖȉȣȚȐȑ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȒȈȒ ȕȈȐȉȖȓȍȍ ȗȘȐȊȣȟȕȈȧ ȜȖȘȔȈ șȓțȟȈȧ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȉȖȓȤȠȖȍ ȟȐșȓȖ ȝȈȖȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȍȚ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚȤ Ȗ ȕȖȘȔȈȓȤȕȖȔ ȋȈțșșȖȊȖȔ ȘȈșȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȐ ȊȍȘȖȧȚȕȖșȚȍȑ Ȑ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȚȤ Ȍȓȧ ȈȕȈȓȐȏȈ șȖȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊțȦȡȐȑ ȔȈȚȍȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȑ ȈȗȗȈȘȈȚ. ǷȘȐ ȥȚȖȔ ȐșȚȖȘȐȧ șȐșȚȍȔȣ, ȍȍ ȕȈȟȈȓȤȕȖȍ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȍ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȦȚșȧ ȕȍșțȡȍșȚȊȍȕȕȣȔȐ Ȑ ȕȍ ȊȓȐȧȦȚ ȕȈ ȚȍȒțȡȍȍ ȍȍ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȍ5. ǪȚȖȘȖȑ ȚȐȗ șȓțȟȈȧ, ȋȓțȉȖȒȖ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȕȕȣȑ Ȋ ȒȕȐȋȍ «Ƕ ȊȖȑȕȍ»,

1 Beyerchen, Clausewitz, Nonlinearity and the Unpredictability of War. 2 Murray, Innovation: Past and Future, pp. 20-22.

3 Ibid, pp. 34-45.

4 Paret, Clausewitz and the State, p. 127, 130.

5 Poincare, Henri. “Chance,” in Science and Method,” reprinted in Foundations of Science, trans. George Bruce Halsted [1913] Washington, DC: University Press of America, 1982, pp. 400-406.

129

ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

șȊȧȏȈȕ ș ȘȈșȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕȍȕȐȍȔ ȔȐȒȘȖșȖȉȣȚȐȑ ȕȈ ȔȈȒȘȖțȘȖȊȍȕȤ. ǷȘȐ ȥȚȖȔ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȣȔ ȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȚȤ ȊȖ ȊȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ ȒȈȒ ȐșȚȖȘȐȦ șȐșȚȍȔȣ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȕȈȟȈȓȤȕȖȍ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȍ. Ǫ ȞȐȚȈȚȍ, ȗȘȐȊȍȌȍȕȕȖȑ ȘȈȕȍȍ Ȋ ȘȈȏȌȍȓȍ 2.3, ǷțȈȕȒȈȘȍ ȖȉȢȧșȕȧȍȚ ȌȈȕȕȣȑ ȜȍȕȖȔȍȕ. ǬȥȊȐȌ ǵȐȒȖȓȓș (David Nicholls) Ȑ ǺȖȌȖȘ ǺȈȋȈȘȍȊ (Todor Tagarev) ȕȈ ȗȘȐȔȍȘȍ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȕȐȧ ȗȖȋȖȌȣ ȋȖȊȖȘȧȚ Ȗ ȌȊțȝ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȣȝ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȈȝ Ȓ ȖȞȍȕȒȍ ȕȈȟȈȓȤȕȣȝ țșȓȖȊȐȑ Ȑ ȗȘȖȊȖȌȧȚ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȐȧ ȔȍȎȌț ȍșȚȍșȚȊȍȕȕȣȔȐ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȔȐ ȧȊȓȍȕȐȧȔȐ Ȑ ȊȖȑȕȖȑ.

«Ǫ ȖȚȓȐȟȐȍ ȖȚ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȚȍȓȍȑ ȗȖȋȖȌȣ, Ȕȣ ȔȖȎȍȔ ȐȏȔȍȕȧȚȤ ȕȈȟȈȓȤȕȣȍ țșȓȖȊȐȧ, ȖșȖȉȍȕȕȖ ȍșȓȐ ȕȈȝȖȌȐȔșȧ Ȋ ȘȍȋȐȖȕȍ ȉȖȓȤȠȖȑ ȕȍȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȖșȚȐ. Ǫ ȥȚȖȔ șȓțȟȈȍ Ȕȣ ȔȖȎȍȔ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȐȚȤ, ȒȈȒȐȍ ȕȈȟȈȓȤȕȣȍ țșȓȖȊȐȧ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ ȉȣȚȤ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȣ, ȟȚȖȉȣ ȌȊȐȋȈȚȤ șȐșȚȍȔț Ȓ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȦ, Ȋ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȔ ȊȣȝȖȌȕȣȍ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȣȔȐ Ȑ ȎȍȓȈȍȔȣȔȐ. DzȘȖȔȍ ȚȖȋȖ, ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȧ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ, Ȕȣ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȐȚȤ, ȒȈȒȐȍ ȕȈȟȈȓȤȕȣȍ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȧ Ȑ ȗȍȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȍ ȗȈȘȈȔȍȚȘȣ ȖȒȈȏȈȓȐ ȕȈȐȉȖȓȤȠȍȍ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȍ ȕȈ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȕȐȧ. ǺȍȔ șȈȔȣȔ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȦȚșȧ ȞȍȕȚȘȣ ȋȘȈȊȐȚȈȞȐȐ Ȑ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȧ, ȒȖȚȖȘțȦ Ȕȣ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ ȏȕȈȚȤ ȚȖȟȕȖ. ȅȚȖ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȐȚ ȗȖȕȧȚȤ, Ȋ ȒȈȒȖȑ ȚȖȟȒȍ Ȕȣ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ șȒȖȕȞȍȕȚȘȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ țȌȈȘ Ȑ ȒȈȒȈȧ ȘȈȏȊȍȌȣȊȈȚȍȓȤȕȈȧ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȧ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧȕȈȐȉȖȓȍȍȒȘȐȚȐȟȕȖȑ»1.

ǺȘȍȚȐȑ ȚȐȗ șȓțȟȈȧ, ȖȉșțȎȌȈȍȔȣȑ ǷțȈȕȒȈȘȍ, șȊȧȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ș ȕȍșȗȖșȖȉȕȖșȚȤȦ ȊȐȌȍȚȤ ȊșȍȓȍȕȕțȦ Ȋ ȍȍ ȞȍȓȖșȚȕȖșȚȐ: «ǵȈȠȈ șȓȈȉȖșȚȤ ȌȍȓȈȍȚ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣȔ ȘȈșșȔȖȚȘȍȕȐȍ Ȋșȍȑ ǪșȍȓȍȕȕȖȑ Ȑ ȏȈșȚȈȊȓȧȍȚ ȘȈȏȘȍȏȈȚȤ ȍȍ ȕȈ ȟȈșȚȐ. Ǵȣ șȚȈȘȈȍȔșȧ ȌȍȓȈȚȤ ȥȚȖ ȒȈȒ ȔȖȎȕȖ Ȕȍȕȍȍ ȐșȒțșșȚȊȍȕȕȖ. ǰ ȐȕȖȋȌȈ, ȊȘȍȔȧ ȖȚ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ, ȌȊȍ ȚȈȒȐȍ ȟȈșȚȐ ȘȍȈȋȐȘțȦȚ ȌȘțȋ ș ȌȘțȋȖȔ. ǸȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣ ȚȈȒȖȋȖ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȊȖșȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȦȚșȧ ȕȈȔȐ ȒȈȒ șȓțȟȈȑȕȣȍ»2. Ǫ ȌȈȕȕȖȔ șȓțȟȈȍ ȘȍȟȤ ȐȌȍȚ Ȗ ȕȍȐȏȉȍȎȕȣȝ șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȧȝ ȓȐȕȍȈȘȐȏȈȞȐȐ, ȘȍȌțȒȞȐȖȕȐȏȔȈ Ȑ ȐșȒțșșȚȊȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȘȈȏȌȍȓȍȕȐȧ ȞȍȓȖșȚȕȖȋȖ ȔȐȘȈ ȕȈ țȗȘȈȊȓȧȍȔȣȍ ȟȈșȚȐ, ȗȘȐȊȖȌȧȡȐȝ, Ȋ ȒȖȕȍȟȕȖȔ șȟȍȚȍ, Ȓ ȗȖȚȍȘȍ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȣȝ ȏȈȒȖȕȖȔȍȘȕȖșȚȍȑ Ȑ ȊȏȈȐȔȖșȊȧȏȍȑ, ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȍ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȊȖșȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȍȚșȧ ȒȈȒ ȐȋȘȈ șȓțȟȈȧ3.

2.5.4 ǿȍȓȖȊȍȟȍșȒȈȧ ȊȖȓȧ ȕȈ ȊȖȑȕȍ. ǩȖȓȤȠȖȍ ȟȐșȓȖ ȗȈȘȈȔȍȚȘȖȊ, șȓțȟȈȑȕȣȝ ȜȈȒȚȖȘȖȊ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȖȑ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȣ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȌȖȓȎȍȕ țȟȐȚȣȊȈȚȤ ȒȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȐȑ, ȗȘȍȊȘȈȡȈȦȚ ȗȘȐȕȧȚȐȍ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ Ȋ ȕȍȚȘȐȊȐȈȓȤȕțȦ Ȑ ȗȘȍȌȍȓȤȕȖ șȓȖȎȕțȦ ȏȈȌȈȟț. ǵȍȗȘȍȘȣȊȕȖ ȔȍȕȧȦȡȐȍșȧ ȘȍȈȓȐȐ ȉȖȍȊȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ, ȉȖȓȤȠȖȍ ȟȐșȓȖ ȗȖȌȟȈș ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȘȍȟȐȊȣȝ ȗȘȍȌȓȖȎȍȕȐȑ ȖȚ ȗȖȌȟȐȕȍȕȕȣȝ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȧȚ Ȓ ȚȖȔț, ȟȚȖ ȒȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȐȑ ȌȖȓȎȍȕ ȖȉȓȈȌȈȚȤ ȐȕȚțȐȞȐȍȑ Ȑ ȊȖȓȍȑ Ȍȓȧ ȊȣȉȖȘȈ ȗȘȈȊȐȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ. DzȈȒ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȓ ǵȈȗȖȓȍȖȕ, ȔȕȖȋȐȍ ȏȈȌȈȟȐ, șȚȖȧȡȐȍ ȗȍȘȍȌ ȒȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȐȔ, șȘȖȌȕȐ

1 Nicholls, David and Todor Tagarev. “What Does Chaos Theory Mean for Warfare?” Airpower Journal, Vol. 8, No. 3, Fall 1994. 12 January 2011. http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/apj/apj94/fal94/nichols.html.

2 Poincare, Chance, pp. 403.

3 Beyerchen, Clausewitz, Nonlinearity and the Importance of Imagery, p. 73.

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