Арзуманян Р., Сложное мышление и сеть парадигма нелинейности и среда безопасности 21 века

ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

Ȋȍȓ Ȓ ȊȖȑȕȍ, ȉȣȓȈ șȊȧȏȈȕȈ ș ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȍȔ șȚȖȘȖȕȈȔȐ ȗȖșȓȍȌțȦȡȐȝ ȕȍȋȈȚȐȊȕȣȝ ȗȖșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȑ, ȍșȓȐ ȖȕȐ ȕȍ ȉțȌțȚ ȗȘȍȌȍȓȤȕȖ ȖșȚȖȘȖȎȕȣȔȐ. ȇȌȍȘȕȣȍ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȐȧ

ȊȞȍȓȖȔ ȖȉȓȈȌȈȦȚ ȚȈȒȐȔ șȊȖȑșȚȊȖȔ. ǺȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȍȕȕȣȍ ȌȍȧȚȍȓȐ șȚȘȈȠȈȚșȧ ȚȖȚȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȔȍȎȌțȕȈȘȖȌȕȈȧ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȈ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖȑ, ȕȍȎȍȓȐ ȔȖȋȓȈ ȉȣ ȉȣȚȤ Ȑ, ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ, ȉȖȓȍȍ ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖȑ, ȍșȓȐ ȉȣ ȊȖȑȕȈ ȉȣȓȈ ȉȣ Ȕȍȕȍȍ ȌȍșȚȘțȒȚȐȊȕȖȑ»1.

ǷȖȘȖȑ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȤ ȐȏȖȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȖȋȖ ȘȈșșȔȖȚȘȍȕȐȧ șȐșȚȍȔȣ, ȕȈȓȐȟȐȍ ȈȒȚȐȊȕȖȋȖ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ șȖ șȘȍȌȖȑ, ȔȍȕȧȦȡȍȋȖ Ȋ ȚȖȔ ȟȐșȓȍ Ȑ șȈȔț șȘȍȌț, ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚ Ȓ ȗȖȧȊȓȍȕȐȦ ȞȐȒȓȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȈ. ǪȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȕȈ șȘȍȌț, ȟȚȖȉȣ șȌȍȓȈȚȤ ȍȍ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȉȓȈȋȖȗȘȐȧȚȕȖȑ Ȑ ȐȏȉȍȎȈȚȤ ȖȎȐȌȈȍȔȣȝ ȕȍȋȈȚȐȊȕȣȝ ȗȖșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȑ, ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ ȔȍȕȧȦȚ ȍȍ Ȑ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȧȚ Ȓ ȜȖȘȔȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȦ ȕȖȊȖȑ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȖșȚȐ, ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȈȔȐ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ șȚȈȕȖȊȧȚșȧ ȔȍȕȧȦȡȐȍșȧ Ȋ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȍ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ șȐșȚȍȔȈ Ȑ șȘȍȌȈ. ǷȍȘȍȌ ȐȏȔȍȕȐȊȠȍȑșȧ șȐșȚȍȔȖȑ ȊȕȖȊȤ ȊșȚȈȍȚ ȏȈȌȈȟȈ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ țȎȍ ȕȈ ȕȖȊțȦ șȘȍȌț, ȗȈȘȈȔȍȚȘȣ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ șȚȈȓȐ ȕȍȖȗȚȐȔȈȓȤȕȣȔȐ Ȑ ȚȘȍȉțȦȚ ȒȖȘȘȍȒȚȐȘȖȊȒȐ – Ȑ ȚȈȒ ȌȈȓȍȍ, ȗȖȒȈ ȕȍ ȗȘȖȐȏȖȑȌȍȚ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȣȑ șȒȈȟȖȒ

ȊșȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȐȓȐ șȘȍȌȣ.

ǰȔȍȕȕȖ ș ȘȈșșȔȖȚȘȍȕȕȖȑ ȊȣȠȍ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȒȖȑ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ șȐșȚȍȔȣ Ȑ șȘȍȌȣ șȊȧȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ȌȐȓȍȔȔȈ ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȐ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȔȍȎȌțȕȈȘȖȌȕȣȝ ȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȑ: «șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȔȖȋțȚ ȗȘȖȐȏȊȖȌȐȚȤ ȞȐȒȓȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȣ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȈȒȚȖȘȣ ȘȍȈȋȐȘțȦȚ ȕȈ ȕȖȊțȦ șȘȍȌț, ȧȊȓȧȦȡțȦșȧ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȖȔ Ȑȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ șȈȔȈ ȟȈșȚȖ ȔȍȕȧȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȚȍȟȍȕȐȍ ȌȈȕȕȖȋȖ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȈ. Ǫ ȔȍȎȌțȕȈȘȖȌȕȖȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȍ ȖȉȣȟȕȖ ȕȈȐȉȖȓȍȍ ȊȈȎȕȖȑ ȔȈȕȐȜȍșȚȈȞȐȍȑ ȌȈȕȕȖȑ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȒȐ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȠȐȘȖȒȖȔȈșȠȚȈȉȕȈȧ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȧ ȌȐȓȍȔȔȣ ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȐ – ȚȖ ȍșȚȤ ȚȍȕȌȍȕȞȐȧ ȗȖȗȣȚȖȒ țȊȍȓȐȟȐȚȤ ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȤ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȈ ȖȌȕȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȖ țȔȍȕȤȠȈȍȚ ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȤ ȌȘțȋȐȝ. ǺȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȈ ȏȕȈȦȚ, ȟȚȖ ȖȕȐ ȕȍ ȔȖȋțȚ ȗȖȓȈȋȈȚȤșȧ ȕȈ ȌȘțȋȐȝ Ȋ ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȖȔ ȉțȌțȡȍȔ, ȖȕȐ ȊȣȉȐȘȈȦȚ șȈȔȖȏȈȡȐȚț ȗȘȖȚȐȊ ȠȐȘȖȒȖȋȖ ȒȘțȋȈ țȋȘȖȏ»2.

Ǫ ȞȍȓȖȔ ǬȎȍȘȊȐș ȖșȚȈȍȚșȧ ȖȗȚȐȔȐșȚȖȔ. ǺȖȚ ȜȈȒȚ, ȟȚȖ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȈȒȚȖȘȣ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊțȦȚ, ȗȘȖșȟȐȚȣȊȈȦȚ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȦ șȊȖȐȝ ȖȗȗȖȕȍȕȚȖȊ, ȒȖȘȘȍȒȚȐȘțȧ șȊȖȐ șȖȉșȚȊȍȕȕȣȍ ȠȈȋȐ, ȗȖȊȣȠȈȍȚ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȖșȚȤ Ȑ ȌȈȍȚ șȐșȚȍȔȍ ȔȍȎȌțȕȈȘȖȌȕȣȝ ȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȑ ȠȈȕș. Ǫ ȥȚȖȔ șȔȣșȓȍ ȏȕȈȕȐȍ ȗȘȍȌȍȓȖȊ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȖșȚȐ, Ȉ ȚȈȒȎȍ țșȓȖȊȐȑ, ȗȘȐ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȖȕȈ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖȑ, șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȒȖȕșȚȘțȒȚȐȊȕȣȔ Ȑ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȣȔ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȖȔ ȔȍȎȌțȕȈȘȖȌȕȖȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȐ.

«ǪȣȉȐȘȈȍȔȈȧ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȈ, șȖȏȌȈȊȈȍȔȣȍ ȒȖȈȓȐȞȐȐ Ȑ ȉȈȓȈȕș ȏȈȊȐșȧȚ ȕȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȖȚ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȧ ȔȐȘȈ Ȑ ȚȖȋȖ, ȒȈȒ Ȕȣ ȌȖșȚȐȋȈȍȔ ȍȋȖ, ȕȖ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȖȚ șȚȍȗȍȕȐ ȕȈȠȍȑ țȊȍȘȍȕȕȖșȚȐ ȖȚȕȖșȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȕȐȧ ȉțȌțȡȍȋȖ. ǭșȚȍșȚȊȍȕȕȣȍ ȕȍȋȈȚȐȊȕȣȍ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣ șȓțȟȈȦȚșȧ ȘȍȌȒȖ ȗȖ ȚȖȑ Ȏȍ ȗȘȐȟȐȕȍ, ȗȖȟȍȔț ȘȍȌȒȖ ȕȈșȚțȗȈȦȚ ȕȈ ȐȏȊȍșȚȕțȦ ȧȔț. dzȖȒȈȓȐȏȈȞȐȧ ȔȍșȚȈ ȕȍȐȏȊȍșȚȕȖȑ ȌȣȘȣ ȕȍ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȖȉȡȐȔ ȏȕȈȕȐȍȔ, ȕȖ Ȕȣ ȔȖȎȍȔ ȌȖȉȐȚȤșȧ ȥȚȖȋȖ, ȍșȓȐ ȏȕȈȍȔ, ȟȚȖ ȚȈȒȈȧ ȌȣȘȈ ȋȌȍ-ȚȖ șțȡȍșȚ-

1 Ibid, pp. 27-28.

2 Ibid, pp. 28.

101

ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȊțȍȚ. <…> DzȈȎȌȣȑ ȌȍȕȤ ȗȖȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȕȖȊȣȍ ȐȌȍȐ, ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȐ, ȔȍȚȈȜȖȘȣ Ȑ ȘȍșțȘșȣ, ȗȖȌȗȐȚȣȊȈȦȡȐȍ ȌȊȐȋȈȚȍȓȤ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ. ǭșȓȐ Ȕȣ șȚȘȍȔȐȔșȧ Ȓ ȘȈȊȕȖȊȍșȐȦ (ȌȘțȋȖȔț, ȕȍȎȍȓȐ ȚȍȗȓȖȊȈȧ șȔȍȘȚȤ), ȚȖ ȊșȍȋȌȈ ȉțȌțȚ Țȍ, ȒȚȖ ȌȍȓȈȍȚ ȕȍȗȘȐȧȚȕȣȍ ȊȍȡȐ. ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, ȞȍȓȤ ȌȖȓȎȕȈ ȏȈȒȓȦȟȈȚȤșȧ Ȋ ȕȈȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȐ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȔȐȘȈ, ȖȝȊȈȚȣȊȈȦȡȍȋȖ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȈ ș ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȣȔȐ ȒțȓȤȚțȘȈȔȐ, ȗȘȈȊȐȚȍȓȤșȚȊȈȔȐ, ȋȍȖȋȘȈȜȐȍȑ, Ȋ ȕȍȕȈșȐȓȤșȚȊȍȕȕȖȍ ȘțșȓȖ <…> ȝȖȚȧ Ȕȣ ȕȐȒȖȋȌȈ ȕȍ șȔȖȎȍȔ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȚȤ Ȋșȍ ȗȈȚȚȍȘȕȣ Ȋ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȍ Ȑ ȕȍ ȉțȌȍȔ ȗȣȚȈȚȤșȧ șȌȍȓȈȚȤ ȥȚȖ, ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ, Ȕȣ ȉțȌȍȔ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ șȖȏȌȈȚȤ ȐȕșȚȐȚțȚȣ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȗȘȍȌȖȚȊȘȈȚȧȚ ȕȍȎȍȓȈȚȍȓȤȕȣȍ ȗȈȚȚȍȘȕȣ»1.

ǷȖșȓȍȌȕȐȑ ȊȣȊȖȌ ǸȖȉȍȘȚȈ ǬȎȍȘȊȐșȈ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕ Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ ȖȌȕȖȑ Ȑȏ ȖșȕȖȊȕȣȝ Ȟȍȓȍȑ șȖȏȌȈȊȈȍȔȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ ȔȍȎȌțȕȈȘȖȌȕȖȑ ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȐ. ǰȕȚȍȘȍș ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȍȚ Ȑ ȚȖȟȒȈ ȏȘȍȕȐȧ ǬȎȍȑȔșȈ ǸȖȏȍȕȈț ȕȈ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȍ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȝ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȖȊ Ȑ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ șȓȖȎȕȣȝ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ Ȓ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȔ șȐșȚȍȔȈȔ Ȋ ȞȍȓȖȔ Ȑ ȔȐȘȖȊȖȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȍ Ȋ ȟȈșȚȕȖșȚȐ2. ǶȗȐȘȈȧșȤ ȕȈ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣ, ȗȖȓțȟȍȕȕȣȍ Ȋ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ ȐȏțȟȍȕȐȧ ȔȐȘȖȊȖȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȣ, ǸȖȏȍȕȈț ȗȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚ, ȟȚȖ Ȓ ȕȍȑ ȔȖȋțȚ ȉȣȚȤ țșȗȍȠȕȖ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȣ Ȋșȍ ȖșȕȖȊȕȣȍ ȗȖȕȧȚȐȧ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ șȓȖȎȕȣȝ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ. ǶȌȕȈȒȖ ǸȖȏȍȕȈț ȗȘȐȏȣȊȈȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȖșȚȖȘȖȎȕȣȔ Ȑ ȕȍ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȚȤ ȕȖȊȣȍ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ Ȑ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȣ Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ ȗȈȕȈȞȍȐ ȖȚ Ȋșȍȝ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔ ȔȐȘȖȊȖȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȐ. «ȇ ȌȖȗțșȒȈȦ, ȟȚȖ ȐȔȍȦȚșȧ ȗȘȍȚȍȕȏȐȐ Ȓ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ. ǶȕȈ șȌȍȓȈȓȈ ȖȋȘȖȔȕȣȑ ȠȈȋ Ȑ ȐȔȍȍȚ ȗȖȚȍȕȞȐȈȓ Ȍȓȧ ȗȘȖȧșȕȍȕȐȧ Ȑ, Ȋ ȒȖȕȍȟȕȖȔ șȟȍȚȍ, țȓțȟȠȍȕȐȧ țșȓȖȊȐȑ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȟȍșȒȖȋȖ șțȡȍșȚȊȖȊȈȕȐȧ. ǭȍ ȗȘȖȋȘȍșș ȗȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚ ȉȈȏȐș Ȍȓȧ ȈȕȈȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȗȘȍȖȌȖȓȍȕȐȧ ȗȖȘȐșȚȣȝ ȋȘȈȕȐȞ, șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȗȖȚȘȧșȍȕȐȑ, ȘȈșȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕȍȕȐȧ ȈȒȚȖȘȖȊ, ȉȣșȚȘȖ ȗȍȘȍȔȍȡȈȦȡȐȝșȧ Ȍȍȕȍȋ Ȑ ȐȌȍȑ Ȑ ȚȡȈȚȍȓȤȕȖ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȈȕȕȣȝ Ȟȍȗȍȑ ȖȉȘȈȚȕȣȝ șȊȧȏȍȑ. ǵȖ ȈȒȞȍȕȚȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȕȈ ȥȚȐȝ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧȝ ȕȍ ȖȏȕȈȟȈȍȚ, ȟȚȖ ȔȖȎȕȖ șȎȈȚȤ ȖȚȘȍȏȖȒ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ, ȗȖ ȗȘȖȠȍșȚȊȐȐ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȋȖ ȔȖȋțȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȗȖȓțȟȍȕȣ ȗȍȘȊȣȍ ȗȓȖȌȣ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ Ȓ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȔ ȌȐȊȐȌȍȕȌȈȔ, Ȑ ȏȌȍșȤ Ȕȣ ȐȔȍȍȔ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȘȍȟȐȧ ȔȍȎȌț ȚȍȖȘȍȚȐȟȍșȒȐȔ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȍȔ Ȑ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȍȔ ȗȖȓțȟȍȕȕȣȝ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȖȊ Ȋ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȍ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȐȔȍȍȚșȧ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖșȚȤ Ȋ ȖșȊȍȡȍȕȐȐ ȚȍȖȘȍȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȋȘȈȕȐȞ Ȑ ȖȉțȏȌȈȕȐȧ ȗȖȧȊȓȧȦȡȐȝșȧ ȐȔȗțȓȤșȖȊ ȘȈșșȔȖȚȘȍȕȐȧ ȕȖȊȣȝ ȚȍȖȘȐȑ Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ ȗȈȕȈȞȍȐ»3.

ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, șȗȖȒȖȑȕȖȍ, ȊȏȊȍȠȍȕȕȖȍ ȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȍ Ȓ șȓȖȎȕȖȔț ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȦ Ȑ ȕȈțȒȍ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȍȚ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȐȚȤ ȋȘȈȕȐȞȣ, Ȋ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ ȚȍȖȘȍȚȐȏȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ Ȑ ȗȖșȚȘȖȍȕȐȍ ȔȖȌȍȓȍȑ ȔȐȘȖȊȖȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȣ. «…ȍșȓȐ ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȐȚ ȖȚȒȈȏ ȖȚ ȗȖȐșȒȈ ȗȈȕȈȞȍȐ, ȐȓȐ Ȗȕ ȏȈȔȍȕȧȍȚșȧ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȕȦȈȕșȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȣȔ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȖȔ, ȚȖ ȌȖȊȖȓȤȕȖ ȉȣșȚȘȖ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȧșȕȖ, ȟȚȖ ȖșȕȖȊȖ-

1 Jervis, Robert, System Effects: Complexity in Political and Social Life. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1997. Reviewed by Page, Scott E., The Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation (JASSS), Vol. 2, Issue 1.

2 Rosȍnau, Many Dawn Things simultaneously: Complexity Theory and World Affairs. 3 Ibid.

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ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȗȖȓȈȋȈȦȡȐȍ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȣ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȔȖȋțȚ ȔȕȖȋȖȍ ȗȘȍȌȓȖȎȐȚȤ Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ ȗȍȘșȗȍȒȚȐȊȣ ȐȓȐ ȚȖȟȒȐ ȏȘȍȕȐȧ ȕȈ ȔȐȘȖȊȣȍ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȣ, ȕȈ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȔȖȎȕȖ ȉțȌȍȚ ȖȞȍȕȐȊȈȚȤ Ȑ ȗȘȍȌȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȚȤ ȝȖȌ șȖȉȣȚȐȑ. ǶȉȣȟȕȖ ȟȈȡȍ ȊșȍȋȖ ȖȕȐ ȉȘȖșȈȦȚ ȊȣȏȖȊ ȌȖȔȐȕȐȘțȦȡȐȔ ȗȘȍȌȗȖȓȖȎȍȕȐȧȔ ȒȈȒ Ȋ ȈȒȈȌȍȔȐȟȍșȒȖȑ șȘȍȌȍ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȔ șȖȖȉȡȍșȚȊȍ, ȟȚȖ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ, ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȟȍșȒȐȍ Ȑ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȧ șȖȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊțȦȚ ȗȈȚȚȍȘȕȈȔ, ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȍȔȣȔȐ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȔȐ ȘȍȋȘȍșșȐȧȔȐ. <…> ǷȍȘșȗȍȒȚȐȊȈ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȗȘȐȏȕȈȍȚ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȤ ȒȈȒ ȍșȚȍșȚȊȍȕȕȣȝ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȝ (human) șȐșȚȍȔ, ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȍȔȣȝ Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ ȕȍȗȘȍȘȣȊȕȖ ȖȉțȟȈȦȡȐȝșȧ, ȞȍȓȍȊȣȝ, ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȣȝ Ȑ ȐȏȔȍȕȧȦȡȐȝșȧ, ȌȈȎȍ ȒȖȋȌȈ ȖȕȐ ȖȌȕȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȖ ȐȏȔȍȕȧȦȚșȧ Ȑ șȖȝȘȈȕȧȦȚșȧ Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ ȗȖȌȌȍȘȎȐȊȈȦȡȍȑșȧ ȕȍȗȘȍȘȣȊȕȖșȚȐ. ȅȚȖ ȗȍȘșȗȍȒȚȐȊȈ, ȖȝȊȈȚȣȊȈȦȡȈȧ ȕȍȘȈȊȕȖȊȍșȕȖȍ șțȡȍșȚȊȖȊȈȕȐȍ. ǫȖȊȖȘȧ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȖȉȖȉȡȍȕȕȖ, ȥȚȖ ȔȍȕȚȈȓȤȕȖȍ țȚȊȍȘȎȌȍȕȐȍ, șȒȓȈȌ țȔȈ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ ȕȍ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȍȚ ȖȚȌȍȓȤȕȣȍ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣ ȐȓȐ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ, ȕȖ ȗȘȍȌȓȈȋȈȍȚ ȖșȕȖȊȖȗȖȓȈȋȈȦȡȐȍ ȗȘȐȕȞȐȗȣ Ȑ ȚȖȟȒȐ ȘȈȊȕȖȊȍșȐȧ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ Ȑ ȈȕȈȓȐȚȐȒȐ, Ȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȐ ȔȖȋțȚ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȚȤ Ȍȓȧ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȧșȕȖȑ ȖȞȍȕȒȐ șȗȍȞȐȜȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȖȕȐ ȊȣȉȐȘȈȦȚ Ȍȓȧ ȗȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ ȐȓȐ ȘȈȏȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ»1.

ǹ ȌȈȕȕȖȑ ȚȖȟȒȐ ȏȘȍȕȐȧ ȘȈșșȔȖȚȘȍȕȐȍ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ, ȔȐȘȖȊȖȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȣ șȒȊȖȏȤ ȗȘȐȏȔț ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȣ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȐ Ȑ șȓȖȎȕȖȋȖ ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȧ ȌȖȓȎȕȖ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȗȘȐȊȍȚșȚȊȖȊȈȚȤșȧ, Ȋȕȍ ȏȈȊȐșȐȔȖșȚȐ ȖȚ ȚȖȋȖ, ȋȖȚȖȊȣ ȓȐ ȖȕȐ țȎȍ șȍȋȖȌȕȧ ȌȈȊȈȚȤ ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȣȍ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘȐșȚȐȒȐ Ȑ șȔȖȋțȚ ȓȐ ȌȍȓȈȚȤ ȥȚȖ ȒȖȋȌȈȓȐȉȖ Ȋ ȉțȌțȡȍȔ. Ǫ ȓȦȉȖȔ șȓțȟȈȍ, ȖȕȐ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȊȈȦȚ ȚȖȚ ȉȈȏȐș, ȖȗȐȘȈȧșȤ ȕȈ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ, ȗȖȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȠȈȕș șȗȘȈȊȐȚȤșȧ ș ȗȘȖȗȐȚȣȊȈȦȡȍȑ șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕțȦ ȔȐȘȖȊțȦ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒțȦ șȐșȚȍȔț șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȤȦ. ȅȚȖ ȖȏȕȈȟȈȍȚ, ȟȚȖ ȔȐȘȖȊȈȧ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȈȧ șȐșȚȍȔȈ ȌȖȓȎȕȈ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȚȤșȧ ȒȈȒ ȕȍȒȐȑ ȗȘȖȞȍșș, Ȋ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȔ «…ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȣ Ȑ Ȑȝ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȗȘȐȝȖȌȧȚȐțȝȖȌȧȚȊȕȍȉȣȚȐȍȒȈȒ ȟȈșȚȤ ȗȘȖȚȍȒȈȦȡȍȋȖ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȈ, Ȉ ȗȖȓȍ țșȐȓȐȑ (endeavor) ȔȖȎȍȚ șȖ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȍȔ ȔȍȕȧȚȤșȧ Ȋ ȘȈȏȔȍȘȍ, șȚȘțȒȚțȘȍ Ȑ ȟȈșȚȧȝ. ǫȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȈ, ȈȘȔȐȐ, ȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ Ȑ ȋȘȈȎȌȈȕșȒȐȍ ȗȖȌȘȈȏȌȍȓȍȕȐȧ ȔȖȋțȚ ȘȖȎȌȈȚȤșȧ, ȘȈșȚȐ, ȗȘȖȞȊȍȚȈȚȤ, ȘȈȏȘțȠȈȚȤșȧ, țȔȐȘȈȚȤ Ȑ ȐșȟȍȏȈȚȤ ȒȈȒ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȣ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȖȋȖ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȈ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ ȚȈȒȎȍ șȖȏȌȈȍȚ, ȐșȒȈȎȈȍȚ Ȑ ȗȖșȚȍȗȍȕȕȖ șȚȐȘȈȍȚ șȚȘțȒȚțȘȣ, ȟȈșȚȧȔȐ Ȑ ȉȈȏȐșȖȔ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ, ȗțșȚȤ ȌȈȎȍ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȖ, ȖȕȐ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ. ǫȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȈ ȔȖȋțȚ șȖȏȌȈȊȈȚȤșȧ Ȑ ȐșȟȍȏȈȚȤ, ȗȘȍȊȘȈȡȈȧșȤ Ȋ ȔȈȓȍȕȤȒȐȍ ȋȘțȗȗȣ ȓȦȌȍȑ, ȒȈȒ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȐȓȐ ȌȘțȋȐȝ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ ȔȍȎȌț ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȈȔȐ ȐȓȐ ȋȘțȗȗȈȔȐ ȓȦȌȍȑ. “ǶȜȐȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȍ” ȐȓȐ “ȕȍȖȜȐȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȍ” ȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ ȗȖȌȘȈȏȌȍȓȍȕȐȧ ȜȖȘȔȐȘțȦȚșȧ ȐȓȐ ȘȈșȜȖȘȔȐȘȖȊȣȊȈȦȚșȧ ȒȈȒ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȖȊ ȔȍȎȌț șțȡȍșȚȊțȦȡȐȔȐ, ȏȈȘȖȎȌȈȦȡȐȔȐșȧ ȐȓȐ ȗȖȌȈȦȡȐȔȐ ȕȈȌȍȎȌȣ ȕȈȞȐȧȔȐ. ȅȒȖȕȖȔȐȟȍșȒȐȍ, ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȐȓȐ ȌȘțȋȐȍ ȒȓȈșșȣ ȗȘȐȝȖȌȧȚ Ȑ țȝȖȌȧȚ ȟȍȘȍȏ ȝȈȖș, ȊȣȏȣȊȈȍȔȣȑ ȌȘțȋȐȔȐȋȘțȗȗȈȔȐ ȊȕȈȞȐȐȐȓȐșȐșȚȍȔȍȕȈȞȐȑ»2.

1 Ibid.

2 Saperstein, Complexity, Chaos, and National Security Policy, p. 46.

103

ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ǷȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȈȧ ȕȈțȒȈ ȊȊȍȓȈ ȗȖȕȧȚȐȧ «ȒȘȐȏȐșȕȖȑ ȕȍșȚȈȉȐȓȤȕȖșȚȐ» (crisis instability) – Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ ȈȕȈȓȖȋȈ șȈȔȖȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȖȊȈȕȕȖȑ ȒȘȐȚȐȟȕȖșȚȐ ȕȈțȒȐ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ Ȍȓȧ ȖȗȐșȈȕȐȧ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȧ ȗȘȍȌȍȓȤȕȖȑ ȟțȊșȚȊȐȚȍȓȤȕȖșȚȐ ȔȐȘȖȊȖȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȣ Ȓ ȔȈȓȍȕȤȒȐȔ ȊȖȏȔțȡȍȕȐȧȔ Ȑ șȖȉȣȚȐȧȔ – Ȑ «ȒȘȐȏȐșȕȖȑ șȚȈȉȐȓȤȕȖșȚȐ» (crisis stability) – Ȍȓȧ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȧ ȖȚȕȖșȐȚȍȓȤȕȖȑ țșȚȖȑȟȐȊȖșȚȐ1. ǶȟȍȊȐȌȕȖ, ȟȚȖ ȖȌȕȈ Ȑ ȚȈ Ȏȍ șȐșȚȍȔȈ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȌȍȔȖȕșȚȘȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȒȘȐȏȐșȕțȦ ȕȍșȚȈȉȐȓȤȕȖșȚȤ Ȋ ȖȌȕȐȝ șȓțȟȈȧȝ Ȑ ȒȘȐȏȐșȕțȦ șȚȈȉȐȓȤȕȖșȚȤ Ȋ ȌȘțȋȐȝ. Ǫ ȗȘȐȋȖȎȐȕșȒȖȔ ȔȐȘȍ șȈȔȖȖȘȋȈȕȐȏțȦȡȍȑșȧ ȒȘȐȚȐȟȕȖșȚȐ ȞȍȓȐ ȗȖȓȐșȔȍȑȒȍȘȖȊ, ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȍȕȕȣȝ ȌȍȧȚȍȓȍȑ, ȏȈȕȐȔȈȦȡȐȝșȧ ȊȖȗȘȖșȈȔȐ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȐ, ȗȘȐȖȉȘȍȚȈȦȚ ȗȓȈșȚȐȟȕȖșȚȤ, șȚȈȕȖȊȧșȤ ȕȍ ȚȈȒȐȔȐ ȖȟȍȊȐȌȕȣȔȐ. DzȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒ ȌȖȓȎȍȕ ȘȍȈȋȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȕȈ ȗȖȧȊȓȍȕȐȍ ȕȖȊȣȝ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȖșȚȍȑ Ȑ ȘȈȏȘțȠȍȕȐȍ șȚȈȘȣȝ? Ǫ ȒȈȎȌȖȔ ȒȖȕȒȘȍȚȕȖȔ șȓțȟȈȍ ȖȚȊȍȚ ȌȖȓȎȍȕ ȊȣșȚȘȈȐȊȈȚȤșȧ ȏȈȕȖȊȖ, Ȋ ȏȈȊȐșȐȔȖșȚȐ ȖȚ ȒȖȕȒȘȍȚȕȣȝ țșȓȖȊȐȑ Ȑ șȘȍȌȣ, Ȋ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ ȗȘȐȝȖȌȐȚșȧ ȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȚȤ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȍ, ȟȚȖ ȗȘȍȌȗȖȓȈȋȈȍȚ ȋȓțȉȖȒȖȍ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ ȗȘȖȚȍȒȈȦȡȐȝ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȖȊ șȖ șȚȖȘȖȕȣ ȓȐȞ, ȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȦȡȐȝ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȍ. ǩȖȓȍȍ ȚȖȋȖ, Ȋ ȘȧȌȍ șȓțȟȈȍȊ ȖȕȐ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ ȗȖȑȚȐ ȗȘȖȚȐȊ ȒțȓȤȚțȘȕȣȝ ȗȈȚȚȍȘȕȖȊ Ȑ șȔȐȘȐȚȤșȧ ș ȔȣșȓȤȦ, ȟȚȖ ȕȍ ȓȦȉȖȑ ȝȈȖș ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȖȚȘȐȞȈȚȍȓȤȕȣȔ Ȑ ȕȍ ȊșȧȒȈȧ șȚȈȉȐȓȤȕȖșȚȤ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȉȓȈȋȖȔ2.

ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, ȗȘȐ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȒȍ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȑ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȐ, ȜȖȘȔȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȐ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȐ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖ ȕȈțȟȐȚȤșȧ ȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȚȤ ȊȖ ȊȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȍ ȈșȗȍȒȚȣ ȔȐȘȖȊȖȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȣ Ȑ ȉȣȚȤ ȋȖȚȖȊȣȔȐ Ȓ ȚȈȒȖȔț ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȦ șȖȉȣȚȐȑ, ȗȘȐ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȔ șȚȘȈȕȈ, ȘȍȋȐȖȕ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȒȘȐȏȐșȕȖȑ ȕȍșȚȈȉȐȓȤȕȖșȚȐ. ǩȍȑȍȘȟȍȕ ȌȈȍȚ șȓȍȌțȦȡȍȍ ȊȐȌȍȕȐȍ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȍȔȖȑ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȣ: «ǶȗȗȖȕȍȕȚȣ ǹȀǨ ȉțȌțȚ ȐșȒȈȚȤ ȕȈȠȐ șȓȍȗȣȍ ȚȖȟȒȐ Ȋ ȗȖȗȣȚȒȈȝ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȚȤ ȠȈȕș ȏȈșȚȈȚȤ ȊȘȈșȗȓȖȝ Ȑ ȠȖȒȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ. ǶȕȐ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȔȖȋțȚ ȒȖȔȗȍȕșȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ șȊȖȦ șȓȈȉȖșȚȤ Ȋ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȒȖȕȜȘȖȕȚȈȞȐȐ, ȚȈȒȖȑ ȒȈȒ Ȋ ǷȍȘșȐȌșȒȖȔ ȏȈȓȐȊȍ, șȖȏȕȈȚȍȓȤȕȣȔ șȚȘȍȔȓȍȕȐȍȔ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȖȊȈȚȤ ȕȈ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȑ ȒȖȕȚȍȒșȚ ș ȞȍȓȤȦ ȐȏȔȍȕȐȚȤ ȝȖȌ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȐ. ǷȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ ȗȖȘȐșȚȖșȚȐ ȋȘȈȕȐȞ ȔȍȎȌț ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȖȑ Ȑ ȊȖȑȕȖȑ ȔȖȎȍȚ șȚȈȚȤ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȣȔ ȖȘțȎȐȍȔ ȗȘȖȚȐȊ Țȍȝ, ȒȚȖ ȌțȔȈȍȚ, ȟȚȖ ȌȈȕȕȣȍ ȋȘȈȕȐȞȣ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȕȍȗȘȖȕȐȞȈȍȔȣȔȐ. <…> ǸȈȌȐ șȖȉșȚȊȍȕȕȣȝ ȐȕȚȍȘȍșȖȊ Ȕȣ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ ȗȖȕȧȚȤ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȐȧ, ȕȈȒȓȈȌȣȊȈȍȔȣȍ ȕȈ ȕȈș ȕȈȠȐȔ ȊȖȖȉȘȈȎȍȕȐȍȔ. dzȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȤ ȉȓȍșȚȧȡȍ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȐȚ Ȍȓȧ ȗȘȖȍȒȚȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ, ȕȖ ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȈ Ȍȓȧ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȕșȚȊȈ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȕȣȝ Ȑ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ. ǬȈȕȕȈȧ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȕȖșȚȤ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚ Ȓ ȗȖȧȊȓȍȕȐȦ ȠȖȘ Ȋ ȕȈȠȍȔ ȊȖșȗȘȐȧȚȐȐ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȖșȚȐ Ȑ, șȖȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊȍȕȕȖ, șȓȈȉȖșȚȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘțȦ ȕȈȠȐ ȖȗȗȖȕȍȕȚȣ ȔȖȋțȚ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȚȤ. ǵȖ ȏȕȈȕȐȍ șȊȖȐȝ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȐȑ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȔȐȕȐȔȐȏȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȋȓțȉȐȕț Ȑ ȗȘȖȌȖȓȎȐȚȍȓȤȕȖșȚȤ

1 Saperstein, Alvin M. “Chaos as a Tool for Exploring Questions of International Security,” Conflict Management and Peace Science, Vol. 13, No. 2, 1994, pp. 149-77.

2 Saperstein, Complexity, Chaos, and National Security Policy, p. 55.

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ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

țȌȐȊȓȍȕȐȧ, țȔȍȕȤȠȐȊ ȍȋȖ ȏȕȈȟȍȕȐȍ ȌȖ ȗȘȐȍȔȓȍȔȣȝ ȗȘȍȌȍȓȖȊ. ǸȈșȠȐȘȍȕȕȖȍ ȖșȖȏȕȈȕȐȍ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȖșȚȐ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȗȖȔȖȟȤ ȕȈȔ țșȗȍȠȕȍȍ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȘȖȊȈȚȤșȧ Ȓ ȐȏȔȍȕȧȦȡȐȔșȧ ȖȉșȚȖȧȚȍȓȤșȚȊȈȔ.

ǬțȔȈȧ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȒȖȕșȚȘțȒȚȐȊȕȖ Ȗ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȐ, Ȕȣ ȗȘȐ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖșȚȐ ȉțȌȍȔ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȗȘȖȍȒȚȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȘȖȉȈșȚȕȣȍ șȐșȚȍȔȣ. ǵȖȊȈȧ ȜȖȘȔȈ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ, ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȦȡȈȧ Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ ȧȌȘȈ ȚȈȒȐȍ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȐ, ȒȈȒ șȈȔȖȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȧ, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȍȚ ȊȏȖȘȊȈȚȤ șȚȘțȒȚțȘȣ șȒȖȘȍȍ ȐȏȕțȚȘȐ, ȕȍȎȍȓȐ ȒȍȔ-ȚȖ ȐȏȊȕȍ. ǹ ȚȈȒȐȔ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚȈȘȐȍȔ Ȕȣ ȔȖȎȍȔ ȓțȟȠȍ ȗȖȕȧȚȤ ȉȐȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȍ Ȑ ȐșȚȖȘȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȣ, ș ȒȖȚȖȘȣȔȐ șȚȈȓȒȐȊȈȍȔșȧ. ǰ Ȕȣ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ ȗȘȐȑȚȐ Ȓ ȖșȖȏȕȈȕȐȦ ȚȖȋȖ, ȒȈȒ ȖȉȡȐȍ, ȖȗȐȘȈȦȡȐȍșȧ ȕȈ ȈȕȈȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȍ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȕȐȍ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȐ, ȔȖȋțȚ șȚȐȔțȓȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȖȉȘȍȟȍȕȕȖȍ ȕȈ ȗȘȖȊȈȓ, ȕȍȖșțȡȍșȚȊȐȔȖȍ ȎȍȓȈȕȐȍ țȗȘȈȊȓȧȚȤ ȉȖȓȤȠȍȑ ȟȈșȚȤȦ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȔȐȘȈ ȊȖȒȘțȋ ȕȈș, ȕȍȎȍȓȐ ȥȚȖ Ȋ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȚȍȓȤȕȖșȚȐ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ»1.

ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȖ ȕțȎȌȈȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȋȐȉȒȐȝ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȈȝ, ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ, ȌȐȗȓȖȔȈȚȈȝ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ ȉȣȚȤ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȈȌȍȒȊȈȚȕȖ ȘȍȈȋȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȕȈ ȉȣșȚȘȖ ȔȍȕȧȦȡțȦșȧ șȐȚțȈȞȐȦ Ȋ șȚȘȈȕȍ, ȘȍȋȐȖȕȍ. ǪȘȍȔȍȕȈ ȗȘȖșȚȣȝ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȑ Ȑ ȧșȕȣȝ Ȑ țȕȐȊȍȘșȈȓȤȕȣȝ șȝȍȔ țȝȖȌȧȚ, Ȑ ȕȖȊȖȔț ȗȖȒȖȓȍȕȐȦ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȖȊ ȕȈȌȖ ȉȣȚȤ ȋȖȚȖȊȣȔ Ȓ ȘȈȉȖȚȍ Ȋ țșȓȖȊȐȧȝ ȗȖșȚȖȧȕȕȣȝ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȑ, ȒȖȋȌȈ șȈȔȖ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȍ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȖ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ȥȓȈșȚȐȟȕȣȔ Ȑ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȔȍȕȧȚȤ șȊȖȦ ȒȖȕȜȐȋțȘȈȞȐȦ ȒȈȒ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚ țșȐȓȐȑ, ȊȖȓȐ Ȑ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ ȈȒȚȖȘȖȊ, țȟȈșȚȊțȦȡȐȝ Ȋ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȈȝ. Ǫ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȒȘȐȏȐșȕȖȑ ȕȍșȚȈȉȐȓȤȕȖșȚȐ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣȔ ȗȖȐșȒ «ȝȖȘȖȠȍȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ» Ȑ ȍȍ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȗȖșȚȈȊȓȍȕȐȍ «ȗȓȖȝȖȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ» – ȘȍȟȤ ȌȖȓȎȕȈ ȐȌȚȐ Ȗ «ȒȖȕȚȍȒșȚȕȖ-ȗȖȌȝȖȌȧȡȍȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ»2 Ȑ ȠȈȋȈȝ, ȗȘȍȌȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȍȔȣȝ șȍȋȖȌȕȧ, șȍȑȟȈș, Ȋ ȒȖȕȒȘȍȚȕȖȑ șȓȖȎȐȊȠȍȑșȧ șȐȚțȈȞȐȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ ȏȈȊȚȘȈ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȘȈȌȐȒȈȓȤȕȖ ȐȏȔȍȕȐȚȤșȧ.

2. ǷȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȈ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȐ Ȋ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ șȜȍȘȍ. ǪȖȑȕȈ ȒȈȒ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȑ ȜȍȕȖȔȍȕ

2.1 ǪȖȑȕȈ șȒȊȖȏȤ ȗȘȐȏȔț ȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȑ Ȑ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȑ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔ

ǯȈȗȈȌȕȣȑ ȗȖȌȝȖȌ Ȓ ȊȖȑȕȍ, ȒȈȒ ȕȐȒȈȒȈȧ ȌȘțȋȈȧ șȜȍȘȈ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖȑ ȎȐȏȕȐ, ȖȒȈȏȈȓșȧ ȗȖȌ ȊȓȐȧȕȐȍȔ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȑ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȣ. ǵȤȦȚȖȕȖȊșȒȈȧ ȊȖȑȕȈ ȌȍȚȍȘȔȐȕȐșȚȐȟȍșȒȐ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȈ: ȍșȓȐ Ȋȣ ȐȔȍȍȚȍ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȦ Ȗ ȕȈȟȈȓȤȕȣȝ țșȓȖȊȐȧȝ Ȑ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȐȓȐ țȕȐȊȍȘșȈȓȤȕȣȍ «ȏȈȒȖȕȣ» ȉȖȧ, ȚȖ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȗȘȖȋȕȖȏȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ Ȋ ȗȖȓȕȖȔ ȖȉȢȍȔȍ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȍ șȖȉȣȚȐȑ Ȑ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȚȤ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣ ȉȖȍȊȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ. ǺȖ ȍșȚȤ ȕȤȦȚȖȕȖȊșȒȖȍ ȊȐȌȍȕȐȍ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȗȘȍȌȗȖȓȈȋȈȍȚ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȤ țșȚȈȕȖȊȓȍȕȐȧ ȗȘȧȔȣȝ Ȑ ȗȘȖȗȖȘȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȝ șȊȧȏȍȑ ȔȍȎȌț ȗȘȐȟȐȕȖȑ Ȑ șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȧȔȐ, ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚ-

1 Beyerchen, Clausewitz, Nonlinearity and the Importance of Imagery. 2 Saperstein, Complexity, Chaos, and National Security Policy, p. 57.

105

ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȊȐȍȔ Ȑ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȈȔȐ. ǴȈȓȣȍ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȗȘȖȐȏȊȖȌȧȚ ȔȈȓȣȑ ȥȜȜȍȒȚ, ȗȖȓțȟȍȕȐȍ ȏȕȈȟȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȝ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȖȊ ȚȘȍȉțȍȚ ȔȈșșȐȊȕȣȝ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ. ǪȖȑȕȈ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ȘȍȌțȒȞȐȖȕȐșȚșȒȖȑ Ȑ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȍȚșȧ ȟȍȘȍȏ ȍȍ ȘȈȏȌȍȓȍȕȐȍ ȕȈ ȌȐșȒȘȍȚȕȣȍ ȟȈșȚȐ Ȑ ȥȗȐȏȖȌȣ, ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ ȔȈȓȍȕȤȒȐȍ, ȟȚȖȉȣ ȔȖȎȕȖ ȉȣȓȖ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȚȤ Ȑ ȖșțȡȍșȚȊȓȧȚȤ ȒȖȕȚȘȖȓȤ. ǷȘȐ ȥȚȖȔ ȗȘȍȌȗȖȓȈȋȈȍȚșȧ, ȟȚȖ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ Ȑ ȒȖȕȚȘȖȓȤ ȟȈșȚȍȑ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȍȚ ȌȖșȚȐȋȕțȚȤ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȧ Ȑ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ ȞȍȓȣȔ1.

dzȐȕȍȑȕȖȍ, ȔȍȝȈȕȐșȚȐȟȍșȒȖȍ ȊȐȌȍȕȐȍ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȐȔȍȍȚ ȚȍȕȌȍȕȞȐȦ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȚȤ ȊȖȍȕȕțȦ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȦ Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ ȏȈȒȘȣȚȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȣ, ȐșȒȓȦȟȈȦȡȍȑ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȐȏȊȕȍ, ȟȚȖ ȊȍȌȍȚ Ȓ ȕȍȗȘȐȍȔȓȍȔȣȔ ȗȖșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȧȔ, Ȉ ȐȔȍȕȕȖ – ȊȕțȚȘȍȕȕȍ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȖ ȜțȕȒȞȐȖȕȐȘțȦȡȍȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȔȈȠȐȕȍ. ǭșȓȐ Ȋȣ ȗȘȈȊȐȓȤȕȖ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏțȍȚȍ Ȑ ȖȚȓȈȌȐȚȍ ȊȖȍȕȕțȦ ȔȈȠȐȕț, ȚȖ, ȘȈȉȖȚȈȧ ȕȈ ȗȐȒȍ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȐ, ȖȕȈ ȊȈȔ ȋȈȘȈȕȚȐȘțȍȚ ȗȖȉȍȌț. ǷȘȐ ȥȚȖȔ ȔȖȎȕȖ ȕȍ ȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȚȤ Ȋ ȘȈșȟȍȚ ȊȕȍȠȕȐȍ ȜȈȒȚȖȘȣ, Ȑ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒ, ȕȈȐȔȍȕȍȍ țȗȘȈȊȓȧȍȔȣȑ ȗȈȘȈȔȍȚȘ, ȗȖȓȕȖșȚȤȦ ȐșȒȓȦȟȈȍȚșȧ Ȑȏ țȘȈȊȕȍȕȐȑ. ǵȤȦȚȖȕȖȊșȒȖȍ ȊȐȌȍȕȐȍ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȊȍȌȍȚ Ȓ ȜȖȒțșȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȦ ȕȈ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȍ ȖȗȚȐȔȐȏȈȞȐȐ, ȕȈȝȖȎȌȍȕȐȧ ȖȗȚȐȔȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ ȊȖȏȕȐȒȈȦȡȐȝ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔ. ǪȖȑȕȈ ȚȘȈȒȚțȍȚșȧ ȒȈȒ ȖȌȕȖșȚȖȘȖȕȕȧȧ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȈ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȘȍȠȍȕȈ ȈȕȈȓȖȋȐȟȕȖ ȐȕȎȍȕȍȘȕȖȑ ȐȓȐȔȈȚȍȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ2.

DzȈȒ șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍ, ȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȤ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȎȍȓȈȕȕȣȔ șȊȖȑșȚȊȖȔ, ȚȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȍ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȗȖȌȌȈȦȚșȧ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȦ Ȑ ȕȍ ȌȍȔȖȕșȚȘȐȘțȦȚ ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȖȋȖ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ. Ǫșȧ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȈȧ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȧ, ȖȗȐșȣȊȈȦȡȈȧ ȒȈȒțȦ-ȓȐȉȖ șȐȚțȈȞȐȦ, ȚȍȖȘȍȚȐȟȍșȒȐ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȌȖșȚțȗȕȖȑ, Ȑ Ȋȣ ȐȔȍȍȚȍ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȤ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ șȊȖȐ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ Ȍȓȧ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ ȗȖȉȍȌȣ. ǷȘȐ ȥȚȖȔ Ȋșȍ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȈȍȔȣȍ ȕȍȌȖșȚȈȚȒȐ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȋȖ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȈ, ȊȒȓȦȟȈȧ ȊȖȏȕȐȒȈȦȡțȦ ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȖșȚȤ, șȊȧȏȣȊȈȦȚ ș ȌȍȜȍȒȚȈȔȐ Ȋ ȒȖȕșȚȘțȒȞȐȐ șȐșȚȍȔȣ, ȕȍȌȖȘȈȉȖȚȒȈȔȐ ȗȓȈȕȈ, ȕȍȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖșȚȤȦ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȐ Ȑ ȗȘ. ǴȈȕȐȜȍșȚȈȞȐȍȑ ȌȈȕȕȖȋȖ ȊȐȌȍȕȐȧ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȚȈȒ ȕȈȏȣȊȈȍȔȣȑ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȑ ȗȖȌȝȖȌ, ȜȖȒțșȐȘțȦȡȐȑșȧ ȕȈ șȉȖȘȍ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȚȖȟȕȖȑ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȐ Ȗ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȍ Ȑ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȑ șȘȍȌȍ, ȘȈȌȐȒȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȘȍșȚȘțȒȚțȘȐȏȈȞȐȐ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȕȣȝ șȐȓ Ȑ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȐ ȗȘȍȐȔțȡȍșȚȊ ȕȖȊȣȝ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȑ3.

ǺȍȔ ȕȍ Ȕȍȕȍȍ, ȒȈȒ Ȑ Ȋ ȌȘțȋȐȝ șȜȍȘȈȝ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȎȐȏȕȐ, ȕȤȦȚȖȕȖȊșȒȖȍ ȊȐȌȍȕȐȍ ȖȒȈȏȈȓȖșȤ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȕȣȔ Ȋ șȊȖȐȝ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȧȝ ȖȗȐșȈȕȐȧ ȊȖȑȕȣ, Ȑ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȕȣȑ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚ ȐȔȍȍȚ ȔȕȖȎȍșȚȊȖ ȈșȗȍȒȚȖȊ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȕȍ ȔȖȋțȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȈȌȍȒȊȈȚȕȖ ȖȉȢȧșȕȍȕȣ ȊȕțȚȘȐ ȌȈȕȕȖȑ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȣ. dzȐȕȍȑȕȈȧ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȈ șȖȏȌȈȍȚ ȐȓȓȦȏȐȦ ȗȘȖșȚȖȚȣ, ȥȚȖ ȒȖȔȜȖȘȚȈȉȍȓȤȕȈȧ ȜȖȘȔȈ, ȚȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȖȕȈ ȗȘȍȌȓȈȋȈȍȚ ȗȘȖșȚȖȑ șȗȖșȖȉ ȈȕȈȓȐȏȈ, ȔȍȚȖȌȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍȔ Ȑ ȊȣȗȖȓȕȍȕȐȍȔ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȑ Ȑ șȖȏȌȈȍȚ ȐȓȓȦȏȐȦ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȕȐȧ ȉțȌțȡȍȋȖ, ȍșȓȐ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȚȤ șȉȖȘ Ȑ

1 Rinaldi, Steven M. “Complexity Theory And Airpower: A New Paradigm for Airpower in the 21st Century,” in Alberts David S. and Thomas J. Czerwinski (eds.). Complexity, Global Politics and National Security. Washington: National Defense University, 1997, p. 114. 12 January 2011. <http://www.dodccrp. org/files/Alberts_Complexity_Global.pdf>.

2 Schmitt, Command and (Out of Control), pp. 100-101.

3 Owens, William A. and Ed Offley. Lifting the Fog of War. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2000, pp. 13-15, 22-24.

106

ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȖȉȘȈȉȖȚȒț ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ ȗȖȓȕȖȑ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȐ ȗȖ ȚȍȒțȡȍȑ ȖȉșȚȈȕȖȊȒȍ. ǶȌȕȈȒȖ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȈȧ ȊȖȑȕȈ – ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖ ȉȖȓȍȍșȓȖȎȕȖȍ ȧȊȓȍȕȐȍ, ȕȍțȒȓȈȌȣȊȈȦȡȍȍșȧ ȊȗȘȖȒȘțșȚȖȊȖ ȓȖȎȍ țȗȘȖȡȍȕȕȣȝ ȜȖȘȔ. ǪȣȠȍȗȘȐȊȍȌȍȕȕȖȍ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȐȑ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȐ ȕȈ ȜȖȕȍ ȘȈȏȊȖȘȈȟȐȊȈȦȡȍȋȖșȧ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ șȌȊȐȋȈ Ȋ ȌȘțȋȐȝ ȖȉȓȈșȚȧȝ ȕȈțȒȐ Ȑ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȖȑ șȜȍȘȍ ȗȘȐȊȍȓȖ Ȓ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȦ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖșȚȐ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȒȐ ȕȖȊȖȑ, ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȑ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȣ ȊȖȑȕȣ. ǬȘțȋȐȔȐ șȓȖȊȈȔȐ, ȚȍȖȘȍȚȐȟȍșȒȖȍ ȖșȔȣșȓȍȕȐȍ ȜȍȕȖȔȍȕȈ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȗȖȌȟȐȕȧȍȚșȧ ȏȈȒȖȕț șȚȈȕȖȊȓȍȕȐȧ Ȑ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȧ ȌȖȔȐȕȈȕȚȕȣȝ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔ. ǷȘȐȟȍȔ ȒȈȚȈȓȐȏȈȚȖȘȖȔ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ șȌȊȐȋȈ șȚȈȕȖȊȧȚșȧ, ȒȈȒ ȗȘȈȊȐȓȖ, ȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ ȗȖȘȈȎȍȕȐȧ. ǿȈȡȍ ȊșȍȋȖ ȐȔȍȕȕȖ ȗȘȖȐȋȘȈȊȠȈȧ șȚȖȘȖȕȈ șȚȈȘȈȍȚșȧ ȗȖȕȧȚȤ ȗȘȐȟȐȕȣ ȗȖȘȈȎȍȕȐȧ, ȖșȊȖȐȚȤ ȕȖȊȣȍ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȐ, șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȦ, ȚȈȒȚȐȒț șȞȍȓȤȦȈȌȈȗȚȐȘȖȊȈȚȤșȧ ȒȕȖȊȣȔȘȍȈȓȐȧȔ1.

ǺȖ ȍșȚȤ ȘȈȏȔȈȝ Ȑ șȒȖȘȖșȚȤ ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȧȡȐȝ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȑ ȗȘȐȕțȎȌȈȦȚ ȊȖȍȕȕțȦ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȦ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȈ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚȤșȧ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȋȐȉȒȖȑ, ȟȚȖȉȣ ȉȣȚȤ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȖȗȍȘȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖ ȉȖȓȍȍ șȓȖȎȕȖȑ șȘȍȌȍ, Ȉ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȖșȚȤ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȒȘȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȔ ȚȘȍȉȖȊȈȕȐȍȔ ȕȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȧ, ȕȖ Ȑ ȊȣȎȐȊȈȕȐȧ. ǿȚȖȉȣ ȉȣȚȤ ȈȌȍȒȊȈȚȕȣȔȐ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȖȔț ȔȐȘț, ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȕȣȍ șȐȓȣ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ șȚȈȚȤ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȣȔ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚȖȔ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȔȖȡȐ, ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȊȈȦȡȐȔ ȍȋȖ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȍ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȕȈ ȠȐȘȖȒȖȔ șȗȍȒȚȘȍ țȋȘȖȏ Ȑ șȞȍȕȈȘȐȍȊ. ǷȖȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ Ȋșȍ ȉȖȓȤȠȍȍ ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȖ ȓȖȒȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȖȊ, ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȖȊ ȔȈȓȖȑ ȐȕȚȍȕșȐȊȕȖșȚȐ, ȏȈȔȖȘȖȎȍȕȕȣȝ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȖȊ, ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȑ ȗȖ ȗȖȌȌȍȘȎȈȕȐȦ ȔȐȘȈ, ȌȘțȋȐȝ ȜȖȘȔ ȉȖȍȊȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘȐȏțȦȚ șȒȖȘȍȍ ȒȈȒ «ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȐ ȗȖ ȗȖȌȌȍȘȎȈ-

ȕȐȦ șȚȈȉȐȓȤȕȖșȚȐ» (stability and support operations (SASO)), ȕȍȎȍȓȐ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȍ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȉȖȘșȚȊȖ. DzȈȒ șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍ, șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȍ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ ȐșȗȣȚȣȊȈȦȚ ȖȋȘȖȔȕȣȍ ȏȈȚȘțȌȕȍȕȐȧ, ȗȣȚȈȧșȤ ȈȌȍȒȊȈȚȕȖ ȘȍȈȋȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȕȈ ȕȖȊȣȍ țȋȘȖȏȣ Ȑ ȜȖȘȔȣ ȉȖȍȊȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ2, Ȉ ȊȖȍȕȕȈȧ ȚȍȖȘȐȧ 21 ȊȍȒȈ, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȡȈȧ șȗȘȈȊȐȚȤșȧ șȖ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȤȦ ȕȖȊȖȑ șȘȍȌȣ ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȐ, ȕȍȐȏȉȍȎȕȖ Ȋ ȚȖȑ ȐȓȐ ȐȕȖȑ ȜȖȘȔȍ ȖȗȐȘȈȍȚșȧ ȕȈ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔț ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȐ Ȑ ȚȍȖȘȐȦ șȓȖȎȕȣȝ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ.

ǵȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȍ ȈșȗȍȒȚȣ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȗȘȍȌȗȖȓȈȋȈȦȚ ȘȈȏȕȖȖȉȘȈȏȕȣȍ șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȧ Ȑ ȕȍȖȎȐȌȈȕȕȖȍ ȘȈȏȊȖȘȈȟȐȊȈȕȐȍ ȉȖȍȊȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ, ȕȍȖȉȧȏȈȚȍȓȤȕȖ ȊȐȌȐȔȣȍ Ȑ ȗȘȖȋȕȖȏȐȘțȍȔȣȍ Ȋ ȗȘȍȌȊȖȍȕȕȣȑ ȗȍȘȐȖȌ. DzȓȦȟ Ȓ țșȗȍȝț ȓȍȎȐȚ Ȋ șȗȖșȖȉȕȖșȚȐ ȘȈșȗȖȏȕȈȚȤ Ȑ ȗȖȏȐȚȐȊȕȖ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȚȤ ȚȈȒȖȋȖ ȘȖȌȈ ȗȖȚȍȕȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȌȖ ȚȖȋȖ, ȒȈȒ ȖȕȐ șȚȈȕțȚ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚȖȔ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ. ǭșȓȐ ȉȣ ȓȐȌȍȘȣ ȍȊȘȖȗȍȑșȒȖȑ șȚȘȈȕ ȕȈȒȈȕțȕȍ ǷȍȘȊȖȑ ȔȐȘȖȊȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȘȈșȗȖȏȕȈȓȐ ȉȣ, ȟȚȖ ȔȖȉȐȓȐȏȈȞȐȧ ȊȖȑșȒ ș ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȍȔ Ȏȍȓȍȏȕȣȝ ȌȖȘȖȋ ȖȉȓȈȌȈȍȚ ȘȍșțȘșȖȔ ȖȋȘȖȔȕȖȑ ȒȘȐȏȐșȕȖȑ ȕȍșȚȈȉȐȓȤȕȖșȚȐ, ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ, ȖȕȐ șȔȖȋȓȐ ȉȣ ȍȍ ȖȉȖȑȚȐ Ȑ ȖȉțȏȌȈȚȤ ȘȈȏȊȖȘȈȟȐ-

1 Murray, Williamson, “Innovation: Past and Future,” in Williamson Murray and Allan. Millett (eds.), Military Innovation in the Interwar Period, New York: Cambridge University Press, 1996, p. 305.

2 Adams, Thomas K. "The Real Military Revolution.” Parameters, U.S. Army War College Quarterly, Summer, Autumn 2000, pp. 54-65. 12 January 2011. http://carlisle-www.army.mil/usawc/Parameters/00autumn/adams.htm.

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ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȊȈȦȡȐȍșȧ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȣ1. ǶȌȕȈȒȖ ȌȈȕȕȖȍ ȊȐȌȍȕȐȍ ȗȘȍȌȗȖȓȈȋȈȍȚ ȕȈȓȐȟȐȍ șȓȖȎȕȖȋȖ ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȧ, șȗȖșȖȉȕȖșȚȤ Ȓ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȔț ȊȐȌȍȕȐȦ ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȖȊ, ȚȖ ȍșȚȤ ȕȈȓȐȟȐȍ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȣ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȐ Ȋ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȍ, ȒȖȚȖȘȖȍ, ȖȌȕȈȒȖ, ȉȣȓȖ ȗȖȓȕȖșȚȤȦ ȖȘȐȍȕȚȐȘȖȊȈȕȖ ȕȈ ȓȐȕȍȑȕțȦ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔț2.

2.2ǵȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȤ ȊȖȑȕȣ.

DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ ȒȈȒ șȐȔȊȖȓ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȐ Ȋ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ șȜȍȘȍ

ǸȈȏȊȐȚȐȍ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȋȖ ȊȏȋȓȧȌȈ ȕȈ ȊȖȑȕț ȕȈ ǯȈȗȈȌȍ ȚȍșȕȖ șȊȧȏȈȕȖ ș ȐȔȍȕȍȔ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȈ – ȊȣȌȈȦȡȍȋȖșȧ ȕȍȔȍȞȒȖȋȖ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȚȍȖȘȍȚȐȒȈ. ǼȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐ, DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ șȐȔȊȖȓȖȔ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȐ Ȋ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ șȜȍȘȍ, Ȑ ȍȋȖ ȊȓȐȧȕȐȍ ȕȈ șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȍ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ ȌȖȒȚȘȐȕȣ ȖȋȘȖȔȕȖ. ǶȌȕȈȒȖ, ȒȈȒ ȖȚȔȍȟȈȍȚ ȘȧȌ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȍȑ, ȕȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ, ȕȍȔȍȞȒȐȑ ȐșȚȖȘȐȒ ǫȈȕș ǸȖȚȜȍȓș (Hans Rothfels), DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ ȖȚȕȖșȐȚșȧ ȒȚȍȔ ȈȊȚȖȘȈȔ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ «ȉȖȓȤȠȍ ȞȐȚȐȘțȦȚșȧ, ȕȍȎȍȓȐ ȊȌȍȑșȚȊȐȚȍȓȤȕȖșȚȐ ȟȐȚȈȦȚșȧ»3. ȅȚȖ ȊȖ ȔȕȖȋȖȔ șȊȧȏȈȕȖ ș ȚȍȔ, ȟȚȖ ȍȋȖ ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ șȓȖȎȕȖ ȟȐȚȈȚȤ Ȑ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȚȤ, ȖșȚȈȊȈȧșȤ Ȋ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȝ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȍȕȐȑ4. ǶȌȕȈȒȖ ȐȕȍȘȞȐȧ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȋȖ ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȧ ȗȘȖȌȖȓȎȈȍȚ ȊȖ ȔȕȖȋȖȔ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȚȤ ȓȐȞȖ ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȋ 21 ȊȍȒȍ, Ȑ ȚȘȍȉțȦȚșȧ șȍȘȤȍȏȕȣȍ țșȐȓȐȧ, ȟȚȖȉȣ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȣ, ȖȗȐșȈȕȕȣȍ ȍȡȍ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȍȔ, ȕȈȒȖȕȍȞ-ȚȖ ȏȈȕȧȓȐ ȗȖȌȖȉȈȦȡȍȍ ȐȔ ȔȍșȚȖ Ȋ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȐ șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ. ǪȗȍȘȊȣȍ ȖȗȐșȈȕȕȈȧ ȒȈȒ «ǺȐȝȍ»5 (Tyche – șȓțȟȈȑȕȖșȚȤ, ȚȖ, ȟȚȖ ȊȣȗȈȓȖ ȗȖ ȎȘȍȉȐȦ, ȗȍȘșȖȕȐȜȐȒȈȞȐȧ șȓțȟȈȧ ț ǼțȒȐȌȐȌȈ – ȗȘȐȔ. Ǹ.Ǩ.), ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȤ șȍȋȖȌȕȧ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȕȖȊȖȑ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȍ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȍȚ șȕȧȚȤ ȔȕȖȋȐȍ ȚȍȖȘȍȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȐȧ, ș ȒȖȚȖȘȣȔȐ șȚȈȓȒȐȊȈȦȚșȧ ȊȖȍȕȕȈȧ ȕȈțȒȈ ȗȘȐ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȒȍ ȕȖȊȣȝ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝȌȖȒȚȘȐȕ6.

ǽȖȚȧ Ȗ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȍ ȟȈȡȍ ȋȖȊȖȘȧȚ ȒȈȒ Ȗ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȔ ȚȍȖȘȍȚȐȒȍ, ȚȍȔ ȕȍ Ȕȍȕȍȍ șȓȍȌțȍȚ ȖȚȔȍȚȐȚȤ, ȟȚȖ Ȗȕ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ Ȑ ȚȍȖȘȍȚȐȒȖȔ șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȈ. DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȓ, ȟȚȖ ȥȕȍȘȋȐȦ, ȖșȊȖȉȖȎȌȍȕȕțȦ Ȋ ȘȍȊȖȓȦȞȐȖȕȕțȦ ȥȗȖȝț Ȑ ȥȗȖȝț ȕȈȗȖȓȍȖȕȖȊșȒȐȝ ȊȖȑȕ ȗȘȐȏȣȊȖȔ Ȓ ȉȖȓȤȠȖȔț ȟȐșȓț ȋȘȈȎȌȈȕ ȊȖȖȘțȎȈȚȤșȧ, ȕȍ ȚȈȒ-ȚȖ ȓȍȋȒȖ ȉțȌȍȚ țșȔȐȘȐȚȤ7. Ǭȓȧ ȕȍȋȖ ȉȣȓȖ ȖȟȍȊȐȌȕȖ, ȟȚȖ ȚȘȈȕșȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȧ Ȋ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ șȜȍȘȍ, ș ȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ Ȗȕ șȚȈȓȒȐȊȈȓșȧ ȕȈ ȗȘȖȚȧȎȍȕȐȐ șȊȖȍȑ ȎȐȏȕȐ, ȐȔȍȍȚ ȋȓțȉȖȒțȦ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȖ-ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒțȦ ȗȘȐȘȖȌț. DzȈȒ Ȗȕ ȗȐȠȍȚ Ȋ șȊȖȍȑ ȔȖȕȖ-

1 Tuchman, Barbara W. The Guns of August. New York: Dell Publishing, 1962.

2 Saperstein, Complexity, Chaos, and National Security Policy: Metaphors or Tools?, p. 57.

3 Rothfels, Hans. “Clausewitz,” in Edward Mead Earle (ed.) Makers of Modern Strategy. New York: Atheneum, 1969, p. 93. 4 Beyerchen, Clausewitz, Nonlinearity and the Unpredictability of War.

5 Jordan, Michael. Encyclopedia of Gods. New York: Facts On File, Inc., 1993, p. 269.

6 Whitehead, Stuart A. “Balancing Tyche: Nonlinearity and Joint Operations,” in Williamson, Murray (Ed). National Security Challenges for the 21st Century. Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute (SSI), US Army War College, October 2003, pp. 25-26. 12 January 2011.

http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB4.pdf.

7 Paret, Peter. Clausewitz and the State: The Man, His Theories and His Times. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1983; originally published 1976.

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ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȋȘȈȜȐȐ «Ƕ ȊȖȑȕȍ»: «…ȉȈȘȤȍȘȣ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ, Ȋ șțȡȕȖșȚȐ, ȒȖȘȍȕȧȚșȧ Ȋ ȕȍȊȍȎȍșȚȊȍ ȓȦȌȍȑ ȖȚȕȖșȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖȋȖ, ȖȌȕȈȎȌȣ ȘțȝȕțȊ, ȕȍ ȚȈȒ ȓȍȋȒȖ ȗȖȌȌȈȦȚșȧ ȊȖșșȚȈȕȖȊȓȍȕȐȦ ȊȕȖȊȤ…»1, – ȘȍȈȓȤȕȖșȚȤ, ȒȖȚȖȘțȦ ȕȍ ȏȈȝȖȚȍȓȐ ȗȘȐȕȧȚȤ ȍȊȘȖȗȍȑșȒȐȍ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȈ șȚȈȘȖȑ ȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȐ.

ǶȗȈșȕȖșȚȤ, ȒȖȚȖȘțȦ ȕȍșȓȈ ș șȖȉȖȑ ȘȍȊȖȓȦȞȐȖȕȕȈȧ ǼȘȈȕȞȐȧ Ȍȓȧ șȚȈȘȖȑ ǭȊȘȖȗȣ, ȉȣȓȈ șȊȧȏȈȕȈ ȕȍ ș ȗȘȍȐȔțȡȍșȚȊȖȔ Ȋ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȐȐ ȐȓȐ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȧȝ, Ȉ ș ȖșȊȖȉȖȎȌȍȕȕȖȑ ȥȕȍȘȋȐȍȑ ȕȈȘȖȌȈ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ șȟȐȚȈȓ șȍȉȧ ȋȘȈȎȌȈȕȈȔȐ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȈ. ǰșȚȐȕȈ, ȒȖȚȖȘțȦ Ȋ șȊȖȍ ȊȘȍȔȧ ȖȚȒȘȣȓȐ Ȍȓȧ șȍȉȧ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ Ȑ ȍȋȖ țȟȐȚȍȓȤ ǫȍȘȝȈȘȌ ȜȖȕ ȀȈȘȕȋȖșȚ (Gerhard Johann David von Scharnhorst (17551813)) ȗȘȐ ȜȖȘȔțȓȐȘȖȊȒȍ ȚȘȍȉȖȊȈȕȐȑ ȗȖ ȘȍȜȖȘȔȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȦ ȗȘțșșȒȖȋȖ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȈ2. «ǵȍȖȎȐȌȈȕȕȖ ȊȖȑȕȈ ȊȕȖȊȤ șȚȈȓȈ ȌȍȓȖȔ ȕȈȘȖȌȈ – ȚȘȐȌȞȈȚȐ ȔȐȓȓȐȖȕȖȊ (Ȋ șȓțȟȈȍ ȘȍȊȖȓȦȞȐȖȕȕȖȑ ǼȘȈȕȞȐȐ), ȒȈȎȌȣȑ Ȑȏ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ șȟȐȚȈȓ șȍȉȧ ȋȘȈȎȌȈȕȐȕȖȔ. <…> ǷȖȥȚȖȔț, ȗȖȔȐȔȖ ȗȘȈȊȐȚȍȓȤșȚȊ Ȑ ȈȘȔȐȑ, ȒȈȒ ȥȚȖ ȉȣȓȖ ȘȈȕȍȍ, ȐȔȍȕȕȖ ȕȈȘȖȌ șȚȈȓ țȟȈșȚȕȐȒȖȔ ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȊȍșȤ Ȋȍș ȕȈȘȖȌȈ ȉȣȓ ȏȈȌȍȑșȚȊȖȊȈȕ Ȋ ȉȈȓȈȕșȍ. ǸȍșțȘșȣ Ȑ țșȐȓȐȧ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȚȍȗȍȘȤ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȓȐșȤ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣ Ȍȓȧ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȧ, ȗȘȍȊȖșȝȖȌȐȓȐ Ȋșȍ ȖȉȡȍȗȘȐȕȧȚȣȍ ȗȘȍȌȍȓȣ; ȕȐȟȚȖ ȕȍ ȔȖȋȓȖ ȊȖșȗȘȍȗȧȚșȚȊȖȊȈȚȤ ȥȕȍȘȋȐȐ, ș ȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ ȔȖȋȓȈ ȊȍșȚȐșȤ ȊȖȑȕȈ, Ȑ, ȒȈȒ șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍ, ȖȗȗȖȕȍȕȚȣ ǼȘȈȕȞȐȐ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȓȐșȤ ȗȍȘȍȌ ȓȐȞȖȔ ȊȍȓȐȟȈȑȠȍȑ ȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȐ»3.

ǷȘȖȐȏȖȠȍȓ ȊȖȏȊȘȈȚ ȕȈȘȖȌȈ Ȋ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒț Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ șțȉȢȍȒȚȈ, ȈȒȚȐȊȕȖ ȊȓȐȧȦȡȍȋȖ ȕȈ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȖ-ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȣ Ȋ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȍ, Ȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȈȧ ȘȍȊȖȓȦȞȐȧ 1793-1815ȋȋ. ȗȘȐȕȞȐȗȐȈȓȤȕȖ ȖȚȓȐȟȈȍȚșȧ ȖȚ ȚȖȋȖ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȈ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ ȚȍȖȘȍȚȐȒȐ ȒȖȕȞȈ 20 ȊȍȒȈ ȕȈȏȊȈȓȐ ȘȍȊȖȓȦȞȐȍȑ Ȋ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȔ Ȍȍȓȍ (Revolution in Military Affair (RMA)), ȗȣȚȈȧșȤ șȊȍșȚȐ ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȧȡȐȍ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ Ȓ ȟȐșȚȖ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȔ ȐȕȕȖȊȈȞȐȧȔ4. ǺȈȒ Ȏȍ, ȒȈȒ Ȑ ȕȍșȒȖȓȤȒȖ ȊȍȒȖȊ ȕȈȏȈȌ, Ȋ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȣȝ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ Ȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȒȘțȋȈȝ ǯȈȗȈȌȈ ȖȚșțȚșȚȊțȍȚ ȖșȔȣșȓȍȕȐȍ ȚȖȋȖ ȜȈȒȚȈ, ȟȚȖ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȖȊ Ȋ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ șȜȍȘȍ Ȋ ȓȦȉȖȔ șȓțȟȈȍ ȚȘȍȉțȍȚ țȟȍȚȈ ȊșȍȋȖ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȖ-ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȒȖȕȚȍȒșȚȈ, Ȋ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȋȖ ȘȈȏȊȖȘȈȟȐȊȈȍȚșȧ ȊȖȍȕȕȈȧ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȧ.

2.3 ǪȏȈȐȔȖșȊȧȏȤ Ȑ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȊȓȐȧȕȐȍ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȐ Ȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ

ǵȈȐȉȖȓȍȍ ȐȏȊȍșȚȕȣȔ ȊȣȘȈȎȍȕȐȍȔ, ȧȊȓȧȦȡȐȔșȧ ȒȘȈȍțȋȖȓȤȕȣȔ ȒȈȔȕȍȔ ȏȈȗȈȌȕȖȋȖ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȧ ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȑ ȌȍȔȖȕșȚȘȐȘțȦȡȐȔ ȊȏȈȐȔȖșȊȧȏȤ ȔȍȎȌț ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȖȑ Ȑ ȊȖȑȕȖȑ, ȔȖȎȕȖ șȟȐȚȈȚȤ șȓȖȊȈ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȈ: «ǪȖȑȕȈ ȍșȚȤ ȗȘȖȌȖȓȎȍȕȐȍ ȗȖ-

1 Clausewitz, Carl von. On War. trans. Peter Paret and Michael Howard, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1976, p. 593.

2 Watts, Barry D. “Clausewitzian Friction and Future War,” McNair Paper 52, Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defence University (NDU), Washington DC, October 1996 (Revised July 2000), pp. 18-26. 12 January 2011. http://www.clausewitz.com/readings/Watts-Friction3.pdf.

3 Clausewitz, On War, p. 592.

4 Watts, Clausewitzian Friction and Future War, pȘ. 19-20.

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ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȓȐȚȐȒȐ ȐȕȣȔȐ șȘȍȌșȚȊȈȔȐ». ǷȘȐ ȥȚȖȔ ȌȖȔȐȕȈȕȚȖȑ șȓțȎȐȚ ȔȣșȓȤ, ȟȚȖ ȊȖȑȕȈ ȐȋȘȈȍȚ ȗȖȌȟȐȕȍȕȕțȦ ȗȖ ȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȦ Ȓ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȍ ȘȖȓȤ, Ȑ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȈ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȍȚ ȞȍȓȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȗȘȍșȓȍȌțȍȚ ȚȈ ȐȓȐ ȐȕȈȧ ȊȖȑȕȈ, ȔȈșȠȚȈȉ ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȖȉȢȍȔ ȗȘȐȓȈȋȈȍȔȣȝ țșȐȓȐȑ Ȑ ȗȘ1. ǺȍȔ șȈȔȣȔ ȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȧȔ ȗȘȐȌȈȍȚșȧ ȟȐșȚȖ ȐȍȘȈȘȝȐȟȍșȒȐȑ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȍ ȖȚȊȖȌȐȚșȧ ȘȖȓȤ ȊȣȠȍșȚȖȧȡȍȋȖ ȗȖ ȐȍȘȈȘȝȐȐ țȗȘȈȊȓȧȦȡȍȋȖ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȈ, ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȦȡȍȋȖ Ȑ ȕȈȗȘȈȊȓȧȦȡȍȋȖ ȝȖȌ ȉȖȍȊȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ Ȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȐ Ȋ ȞȍȓȖȔ2. ǬȘțȋȐȔ ȕȍȗȘȐȧȚȕȣȔ șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍȔ ȌȈȕȕȖȋȖ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȈ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȊȣȌȍȓȍȕȐȍ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȐ Ȋ ȖȚȌȍȓȤȕțȦ ȒȈȚȍȋȖȘȐȦ Ȑ ȘȈșșȔȖȚȘȍȕȐȍ ȍȍ Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ ȟȍȋȖ-ȚȖ ȊȕȍȠȕȍȋȖ ȗȖ ȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȦ Ȓ șȈȔȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȍ. DzȘȖȔȍ ȚȖȋȖ, ȓȐȕȍȑȕȈȧ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȈ ȗȘȍȌȗȖȓȈȋȈȍȚ șțȡȍșȚȊȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ țȗȖȘȧȌȖȟȍȕȕȖșȚȐ Ȑ ȗȖșȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȤȕȖșȚȐ ȊȖ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȊȕȈȟȈȓȍ ȗȖȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȈ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ ȜȖȘȔțȓȐȘțȍȚ ȞȍȓȐ ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȏȈȚȍȔ ȗȘȖȊȖȌȐȚșȧ ȊȖȍȕȕȈȧ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȧ, Ȑ ȏȈȚȍȔ ȊȕȖȊȤ ȗȖȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȈ, ȗȖȌȊȖȌȧȡȈȧ ȐȚȖȋ ȗȘȖȊȍȌȍȕȕȖȑ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȐ Ȑ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȊȈȦȡȈȧ țșȓȖȊȐȧ ȗȖșȓȍȌțȦȡȍȋȖ ȔȐȘȈ. ǶȌȕȈȒȖ ȚȈȒȖȋȖ ȘȖȌȈ țȗȖȘȧȌȖȟȍȕȕȖșȚȤ ȊȖ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ ȐȔȍȍȚ ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ țșȓȖȊȕȖȍ ȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȍ Ȓ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȖșȚȐ3.

ǵȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȈȧ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȈ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȍȚ ȗȖȓțȟȐȚȤ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȠȐȘȖȒȐȑ ȊȏȋȓȧȌ ȕȈ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȧ ȔȍȎȌț ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȖȑ Ȑ ȊȖȑȕȖȑ, ȗȘȐȖȉȘȍȚȈȦȡȐȍ șȓȖȎȕȣȑ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘ, ȐșȒȓȦȟȈȦȡȐȑ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȑ ȌȍȚȍȘȔȐȕȐȏȔ. ǹȖȋȓȈșȕȖ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȔț ȊȏȋȓȧȌț, ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȈ Ȑ ȊȖȑȕȈ – șȓȖȎȕȣȍ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȍ ȧȊȓȍȕȐȧ, ȊȏȈȐȔȖȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȧ ȔȍȎȌț ȒȖȚȖȘȣȔȐ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ ȉȣȚȤ ȖȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘȐȏȖȊȈȕȣ ȒȈȒ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȊȓȐȧȕȐȍ, ȘȍȈȓȐȏțȦȡȍȍșȧ Ȋ ȚȖȔ ȟȐșȓȍ ȟȍȘȍȏ ȔȕȖȋȖȟȐșȓȍȕȕȣȍ ȖȉȘȈȚȕȣȍ șȊȧȏȐ, Ȉ ȕȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȐȍȘȈȘȝȐȟȍșȒțȦ șțȉȖȘȌȐȕȈȞȐȦ. ǺȍȔ șȈȔȣȔ ȊȖȑȕȈ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȜȍȕȖȔȍȕȖȔ, ȕȍȗȖșȘȍȌșȚȊȍȕȕȖ ȊȒȓȦȟȍȕȕȣȔ Ȋ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȑ ȗȘȖȞȍșș: «ǪȖȑȕȈ ȗȖ șȊȖȍȑ șțȚȐ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȗȖȌȔȕȖȎȍșȚȊȖȔ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȐ, Ȑ ȒȈȎȌȖȍ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȍ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȍ ȐȔȍȍȚ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȗȖșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȧ, ȗȓȈȕȐȘțȍȚșȧ ȓȐ ȥȚȖ ȐȓȐ ȕȍȏȈȔȍȌȓȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȖȟȍȊȐȌȕȣȔ. Ǫ șȝȊȈȚȒȍ ȉȖȧ ȚȘțȌȕȖ ȗȖȔȕȐȚȤ Ȗ ȚȖȔ, ȟȚȖ ȒȈȎȌȖȍ ȘȈȏȘțȠȍȕȕȖȍ ȏȌȈȕȐȍ ȐȓȐ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȍȔȈȧ ȌȖȘȖȋȈ, ȒȈȎȌȣȑ ȗȓȍȕȕȐȒ, țȉȐȚȣȑ ȊȖȐȕ ȐȓȐ ȈȚȈȒȈ ȕȈ ȋȘȈȎȌȈȕșȒȖȍ ȕȈșȍȓȍȕȐȍ, ȒȈȎȌȖȍ ȕȍȗȘȍȌȕȈȔȍȘȍȕȕȖȍ ȕȈȘțȠȍȕȐȍ ȖȉȣȟȈȍȊ șȖȦȏȕȐȒȈ ȕȍȔȍȌȓȍȕȕȖ ȗȘȐȖȉȘȍȚȈȍȚ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȍ ȏȕȈȟȍȕȐȍ»4. ȅȚȖ ȖȏȕȈȟȈȍȚ, ȟȚȖ ȗȘȐ ȘȈșșȔȖȚȘȍȕȐȐ ȚȖȑ ȐȓȐ ȐȕȖȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȐ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣȔ ȈȉșȚȘȈȋȐȘȖȊȈȚȤșȧ ȖȚ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȐ Ȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȒȖȕȚȍȒșȚȈ, ȊȓȐȧȦȡȍȋȖ ȕȈ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘȕȣȍ ȟȍȘȚȣ ȌȈȕȕȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ. ǰȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȍ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȒȖȕȚȍȒșȚȈ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȗȘȐȊȍșȚȐ Ȓ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȦ ȜȖȘȔȣ ȗȘȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȑ ȗȍȘȍȝȖȌț, ȕȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ, ȖȚ ȖȚȒȘȣȚȖȋȖ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȕȖȋȖ șȚȖȓȒȕȖ-

1 ǵȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ, Ȋ ȘȈȉȖȚȍ Cohen, Eliot A. “Strategy: Causes, Conduct, and Termination of War,” (in Richard H. Shultz, Roy Godson, George H. Quester (eds.) Security Studies for the 21st Century. Washington, DC: Brassey’s, 1997, pp. 364-366) ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȈ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȦȡȐȔ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȖȔ ȊȖȑȕȣ, Ȉ Ȋ Gray, Colin S. Modern Strategy (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1999) – ȞȍȕȚȘȈȓȤȕȣȔ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȖȔ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ.

2 Echevarria II, Antulio J. Globalization and the Nature of War. Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute (SSI), US Army War College, March 2003, p. 5. 12 January 2011. <http://www.carlisle.army.mil/ssi/pdffiles/PUB215.pdf>.

3 Beyerchen, Clausewitz, Nonlinearity and the Importance of Imagery, p. 71. 4 Beyerchen, Clausewitz, Nonlinearity and the Unpredictability of War.

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