Арзуманян Р., Сложное мышление и сеть парадигма нелинейности и среда безопасности 21 века

ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȊȍȕȐȧ Ȓ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȧȔ ȐȕȣȔ, ȟȍȔ ȊȖȑȕȈ (Operations other than War (OOTW)) ȐȓȐ ȖȚ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȑ ȗȖ ȗȘȐȕțȎȌȍȕȐȦ Ȓ ȔȐȘț (Peace-enforcement Operations) Ȓ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȧȔ ȗȖ șȚȘȖȐȚȍȓȤșȚȊț ȔȐȘȈ (Peace building Operations) Ȑ ȗȖȌȌȍȘȎȈȕȐȦ ȔȐȘȈ (Peace-keeping Operations) Ȑ Ț.Ȍ. ǰȔȍȕȕȖ ȒȖȕȚȍȒșȚ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȍȚ ȌȐȈȗȈȏȖȕ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȑ ȔȍȎȌț ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȔȐ ȏȈȌȈȟȈȔȐ Ȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȔȐ țșȐȓȐȧȔȐ.

Ǫ șȊȖȦ ȖȟȍȘȍȌȤ, ȝȖȌ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȐ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȖȊȈȚȤ ȕȈ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȑ ȒȖȕȚȍȒșȚ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ ȘȍȈȋȐȘțȍȚ ȟȍȘȍȏ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȍ șȊȖȐȝ ȗȈȘȈȔȍȚȘȖȊ ȐȓȐ ȌȈȎȍ ȗȘȍșȓȍȌțȍȔȣȝ Ȟȍȓȍȑ. ǷȘȖȐșȝȖȌȧȡȐȍ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ Ȋ șȜȍȘȍ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȐ ȊȕȖȊȤ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȦȚ ȊȓȐȧȕȐȍ ȕȈ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘ ȗȘȖȊȖȌȐȔȖȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȐ, ȚȍȔ șȈȔȣȔ șȊȧȏȣȊȈȧ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒț Ȑ ȊȖȑȕț ȔȕȖȋȖȟȐșȓȍȕȕȣȔȐ ȖȉȘȈȚȕȣȔȐ șȊȧȏȧȔȐ1. ǽȖȌ ȉȖȍȊȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚ ȊȓȐȧȕȐȍ ȒȈȒ ȕȈ ȊȣșȠȐȍ țȘȖȊȕȐ ȊȖȑȕȣ (șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȦ Ȑ ȊȣȠȍ), ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȕȈ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȞȍȓȐ, ȒȖȋȌȈ «ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȈȧ ȞȍȓȤ șȈȔȈ ȌȖȓȎȕȈ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȘȖȊȈȚȤșȧ Ȓ ȊȣȉȘȈȕȕȣȔ ȍȍ Ȏȍ șȘȍȌșȚȊȈȔ – ȗȘȖȞȍșș, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȘȈȌȐȒȈȓȤȕȖ ȐȏȔȍȕȐȚȤ ȍȍ»2. ǷȘȐ ȥȚȖȔ ȒȘȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐ ȊȈȎȕȣȔȐ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȦȚșȧ ȚȘȐ ȔȕȖȎȍșȚȊȈ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȑ ȔȍȎȌț ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȖȑ Ȑ ȊȖȑȕȖȑ: ȊȏȈȐȔȖȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȧ ȔȍȎȌț ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȈȔȐ, ȊȣșȠȐȔ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȔ ȒȖȔȈȕȌȖȊȈȕȐȍȔ Ȑ ȒȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȐȔȐ ȊȖȑșȒȈȔȐ; ȊȏȈȐȔȖȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȧ ȔȍȎȌț ȒȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȐȔȐ ȊȖȑșȒȈȔȐ Ȑ Ȑȝ ȠȚȈȉȈȔȐ; Ȑ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȧ ȔȍȎȌț ȒȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȐȔȐ ȊȖȑșȒȈȔȐ Ȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȔȐ ȚȍȖȘȍȚȐȒȈȔȐ3.

ǷȘȐȟȍȔ ȒȈȎȌȣȑ Ȑȏ ȊȣȠȍȗȍȘȍȟȐșȓȍȕȕȣȝ ȈȒȚȖȘȖȊ ȊȣȕțȎȌȍȕ ȘȍȠȈȚȤ ȏȈȌȈȟȐ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȖȑ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȣ, ȟȚȖ ȕȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȕȍ ȗȘȐȊȍșȚȐ Ȓ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȐȧȔ Ȋ ȔȍȕȚȈȓȐȚȍȚȍ, șȚȐȓȍ ȗȘȐȕȧȚȐȧ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȑ, ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȐ Ȑ ȗȘ. ǷȖȓȐȚȐȒȐ șȚȈȘȈȦȚșȧ ȐȏȉȍȋȈȚȤ șȐȚțȈȞȐȐ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖ ȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȚȤ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȍ Ȑ ȌȍȓȈȚȤ ȊȣȉȖȘ, ȗȘȍȌȗȖȓȈȋȈȦȡȐȑ ȠȐȘȖȒȐȑ șȗȍȒȚȘ ȟȍȚȒȐȝ Ȑ ȘȈȏȊȍȚȊȓȍȕȕȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ, ȗȘȍȌȗȖȟȐȚȈȧ ȘȈȏȔȣȚȣȍ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ Ȑ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ, ȖȚșȚȈȊȓȧȦȡȐȍ ȠȈȕș ȕȈ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ Ȋ ȗȖșȓȍȌȕȦȦ ȔȐȕțȚț ȗȘȐȕȧȚȖȋȖ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ Ȑ ȊȣȉȖȘ ȈȓȤȚȍȘȕȈȚȐȊȕȖȋȖ ȊȈȘȐȈȕȚȈ. ǺȍȖȘȍȚȐȒ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȐȚȤ șȍȉȍ ȗȘȐȑȚȐ Ȓ ȊȣȊȖȌț, ȟȚȖ ȗȖșȚȈȊȓȍȕȕȣȍ ȗȍȘȍȌ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȔȐ ȞȍȓȐ Ȑ ȏȈȌȈȟȐ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȗȓȖȝȖ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȣȔȐ, șȓȖȎȕȖ ȊȣȗȖȓȕȐȔȣȔȐ ȐȓȐ ȕȍȊȣȗȖȓȕȐȔȣȔȐ, Ȑ țȑȚȐ Ȋ ȕȈȗȐșȈȕȐȍ ȖȟȍȘȍȌȕȖȑ ȔȖȕȖȋȘȈȜȐȐ. ȀȚȈȉȐșȚȣ, ȖșȖȉȍȕȕȖ ȕȍ ȖȉȓȈȌȈȦȡȐȍ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȣȔ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȖȕȕȣȔ ȖȗȣȚȖȔ, ȗȘȍȌȗȖȟȐȚȈȦȚ ȎȐȚȤ Ȋ țȗȖȘȧȌȖȟȍȕȕȖȔ Ȑ ȝȖȘȖȠȖ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȖȔ ȔȐȘȍ, Ȋ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȔ ȐȔȍȍȚșȧ ȔȖȌȍȓȤ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȐ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏțȍȔȣȝ ȉȖȍȊȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ. ǩȖȓȍȍ ȚȖȋȖ, ȐȔȍȕȕȖ ȖȕȈ ȕȈȗȘȈȊȓȧȍȚ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȉȖȍȊȣȍ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ. DzȖȔȈȕȌȐȘȣ Ȏȍ Ȋșȍȝ ȘȈȕȋȖȊ ȖȉȧȏȈȕȣ ȘȍȠȈȚȤ ȗȖșȚȈȊȓȍȕȕȣȍ ȗȍȘȍȌ ȕȐȔȐ ȏȈȌȈȟȐ, Ȋȕȍ ȏȈȊȐșȐȔȖșȚȐ ȖȚ ȚȍȖȘȍȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȖȞȍȕȖȒ Ȑ ȊȣȒȓȈȌȖȒ. ǶȕȐ ȘȈȉȖȚȈȦȚ Ȋ șȘȍȌȍ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ ȚȘȍȉțȍȚ ȉȣșȚȘȣȝ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȑ, ȐșȒȓȦȟȈȦȡȐȝ ȘȈȏȔȣȚȖșȚȤ Ȑ ȒȈȒȐȍȓȐȉȖ ȚȘȈȒȚȖȊȒȐ, ȟȚȖ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚ Ȓ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖșȚȐ țȗȘȖȡȈȚȤ ȖȉșȚȈȕȖȊȒț Ȑ șțȎȈȚȤ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȖ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȑ, Ȋ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȔ ȖșțȡȍșȚȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȊȣȉȖȘ4.

1 Beyerchen, Clausewitz, Nonlinearity and the Importance of Imagery, p. 72.

2 Clausewitz, On War, p. 87.

3 Gray, Colin S. “Why Strategy is Difficult,” Joint Force Quarterly (JFQ), Issue 22, Second Quarter 1999, p. 85. 12 January 2011. http://www.dtic.mil/doctrine/jel/jfq_pubs/0422.pdf.

4 Ibid.

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ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ǹȐȚțȈȞȐȧ ȔȖȎȍȚ șȚȈȚȤ ȒȘȐȚȐȟȕȖȑ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȓȐȟȕȖșȚȐ, țȟȈșȚȊțȦȡȐȍ Ȋ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ Ȑ ȗȘȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȐ ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȦȚșȧ Ȋ ȘȖȓȐ, ȕȍ șȊȖȑșȚȊȍȕȕȖȑ Ȑȝ ȔȍȕȚȈȓȐȚȍȚț Ȑ ȗȘȖȜȍșșȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȗȖȌȋȖȚȖȊȒȍ. DzȓȈșșȐȟȍșȒȐȔ ȗȘȐȔȍȘȖȔ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ șȓțȟȈȑ ȅȑȏȍȕȝȈțȥȘȈ – ȉȓȍșȚȧȡȍȋȖ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȈ, ȠȚȈȉȐșȚȈ, ȕȖ ȔȈȓȖȖȗȣȚȕȖȋȖ Ȑ ȕȍȖȌȈȘȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȒȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȍȋȖ, ȖșȖȉȍȕȕȖ ȋȓȈȊȕȖȒȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȍȋȖ1. ǷȖșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȧ ȔȖȋțȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȍȡȍ ȒȈȚȈșȚȘȖȜȐȟȕȍȍ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȗȖșȚȣ ȏȈȕȐȔȈȦȚ ȓȐȟȕȖșȚȐ, ȗȣȚȈȦȡȐȍ ȐȋȕȖȘȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȦ Ȑ ȊȖȍȕȕțȦ ȕȈțȒț. ǷȖȓȐȚȐȒȐ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȚȤ Ȑ ȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȚȤ Ȋ ȘȈșȟȍȚ, ȟȚȖ ȌȖ ȕȈȟȈȓȈ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȉȖȍȊȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ ȕȐ ȖȌȐȕ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȒ ȕȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ șȒȈȏȈȚȤ ȌȖșȚȖȊȍȘȕȖ, ȕȈșȒȖȓȤȒȖ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȖȑ ȖȒȈȎȍȚșȧ ȊȖȍȕȕȈȧ șȐȓȈ Ȑ ȈȘȔȐȧ ȔȐȘȕȖȋȖ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ. ǪȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ Ȋ ȔȐȘȕȖȍ ȊȘȍȔȧ ȊȣȋȓȧȌȧȚ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȣȔȐ Ȍȓȧ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ Țȍȝ ȓȐ Ȑȕȣȝ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔ, ȈȊȚȖȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐ ȕȍ ȗȍȘȍȕȖșȧȚșȧ ȕȈ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȍ ȊȘȍȔȧ. ȅȚȖ ȚȍȔ ȉȖȓȍȍ șȗȘȈȊȍȌȓȐȊȖ, ȍșȓȐ țȟȍșȚȤ, ȟȚȖ ȕȈ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȔ țȘȖȊȕȍ Ȋ ȊȖȑȕț ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȦȚșȧ ȊȒȓȦȟȍȕȕȣȔȐ Ȋșȍ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȣ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȔȖȡȐ.

ǹțȡȍșȚȊțȍȚ ȘȧȌ ȕȈȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȑ ȏȈȗȈȌȕȖȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȖ-ȐșȚȖȘȐȟȍșȒȖȑ Ȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȔȣșȓȐ, Ȋ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȗȖȌȊȍȘȋȈȦȚ ȒȘȐȚȐȒȍ ȖȉȡȍȗȘȐȕȧȚțȦ ȚȘȈȒȚȖȊȒț DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȈ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȑ ȔȍȎȌț ȊȖȑȕȖȑ Ȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȖȑ. ǵȍȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȒȘȐȚȐȒȐ, ȚȈȒȐȍ ȒȈȒ ǬȎȖȕ DzȐȋȈȕ (John Keegan), țȚȊȍȘȎȌȈȦȚ, ȟȚȖ Ȍȓȧ ȔȕȖȋȐȝ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊ ȊȖȑȕȈ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȊȈȍȚ ȉȖȓȤȠȍ ȘȍȓȐȋȐȖȏȕȣȍ, ȒțȓȤȚțȘȕȣȍ ȜțȕȒȞȐȐ, ȕȍȎȍȓȐ ȟȐșȚȖ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ. DzȐȋȈȕ ȖȚȘȐȞȈȍȚ țȚȊȍȘȎȌȍȕȐȍ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȈ Ȗ ȊȖȑȕȍ ȒȈȒ Ȗ ȗȘȖȌȖȓȎȍȕȐȐ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȐ, ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘȐȏțȧ ȍȍ ȒȈȒ «ȕȍȗȖȓȕțȦ, țȏȒțȦ Ȑ ȗȘȍȌȍȓȤȕȖ ȕȍȗȖșȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȤȕțȦ»2. ǹȖȋȓȈșȕȖ DzȐȋȈȕț, ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȈ ȊȖ ȔȕȖȋȐȝ șȓțȟȈȧȝ ȊȣȗȖȓȕȧȍȚ șȍȘȊȐșȕȣȍ ȜțȕȒȞȐȐ Ȋ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ ȒțȓȤȚțȘȕȖȋȖ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȈ. ǹȈȔȖ ȗȖȕȧȚȐȍ ȒțȓȤȚțȘȣ ȗȘȐ ȥȚȖȔ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ ȠȐȘȖȒȐȔ Ȑ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȍȚșȧ ȒȈȒ «ȘȈȏȌȍȓȧȍȔȣȍ ȊȍȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ, ȞȍȕȕȖșȚȐ, ȈșșȖȞȐȈȞȐȐ, ȔȐȜȣ, ȚȈȉț, ȐȔȗȍȘȈȚȐȊȣ, ȖȉȣȟȈȐ, ȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȐ, ȗȘȍȌȈȕȐȧ Ȑ șȚȐȓȤ ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȧ, ȘȍȟȤ Ȑ ȝțȌȖȎȍșȚȊȍȕȕȈȧ ȊȣȘȈȏȐȚȍȓȤȕȖșȚȤ, ȗȘȐȌȈȦȡȐȍ țșȚȖȑȟȐȊȖșȚȤ ȓȦȉȖȔț ȖȉȡȍșȚȊț»3. ǶȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȈȧ ȚȈȒ ȠȐȘȖȒȖ, ȒțȓȤȚțȘȈ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ «ȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊȍȕȕȖȑ» ȗȘȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐ ȏȈ Ȋșȍ șȚȖȘȖȕȣ ȎȐȏȕȐ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȈ, ȊȒȓȦȟȈȧ Ȑ ȊȖȑȕț, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȐȕȚȍȋȘȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȟȈșȚȤȦ ȒțȓȤȚțȘȣ. ǺȍȔ șȈȔȣȔ ȖȕȈ, Ȋ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ, ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȧ Ȑ ȜȖȘȔȐȘțȧ ȒțȓȤȚțȘț, ȚȍȘȧȍȚ ȗȘȈȊȖ ȐȔȍȚȤ ȒȈȒțȦȚȖ șȊȖȦ, șȗȍȞȐȜȐȟȕțȦ ȒțȓȤȚțȘț4.

ǬȘțȋȐȍ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȐ, ȚȈȒȐȍ ȒȈȒ ǴȈȘȚȐȕ ȊȈȕ DzȘȍȊȍȓȤȌ (Martin van Creveld), ȈȚȈȒțȦȚ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȈ ș ȗȖȏȐȞȐȑ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȑ ȔȍȎȌț ȊȖȑȕȖȑ Ȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȖȑ. ǭșȓȐ ȐșȝȖȌȐȚȤ Ȑȏ ȚȖȋȖ, ȟȚȖ ȊȖȑȕȈ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȗȘȖȌȖȓȎȍȕȐȍȔ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȐ, ȚȖ

1 Graham, Dominick and Shelford Bidwell. Coalitions, Politicians and Generals: Some Aspects of Command in Two World Wars. London: Brassey’s, 1993, Chapters 9-16.

2 Keegan, John. A History of Warfare. New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1994, p. 24. 3 Ibid, p. 46.

4 Whitehead, Balancing Tyche, p. 6.

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ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȕȈȌȖ ȗȘȐȏȕȈȚȤ, ȟȚȖ ȖȕȈ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȘȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȔ ȘȈșȠȐȘȍȕȐȍȔ ȊȖȓȐ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȈ, ȚȖ ȍșȚȤ Ȕȣ ȐȔȍȍȔ ȌȍȓȖ ȕȍ ș ȟȍȔ ȐȕȣȔ, ȒȈȒ ȉȈȕȈȓȤȕȣȔ Ȑ ȉȍșșȔȣșȓȍȕȕȣȔ ȒȓȐȠȍ. ǩȖȓȍȍ ȚȖȋȖ, ȍșȓȐ ȊȖȑȕȈ ȍșȚȤ ȊȣȘȈȎȍȕȐȍ ȊȖȓȐ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȈ, ȥȚȖ ȖȏȕȈȟȈȍȚ, ȟȚȖ ȖȕȈ ȕȍ ȏȈȚȘȈȋȐȊȈȍȚ ȌȘțȋȐȍ, ȐȘȘȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȈșȗȍȒȚȣ Ȑ ȔȖȚȐȊȣ, ȊȓȐȧȦȡȐȍ ȕȈ ȊȖȑȕț. ǬȘțȋȐȔȐ șȓȖȊȈȔȐ, șȖȋȓȈșȕȖ DzȘȍȊȍȓȤȌț, DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ ȖȗȐșȣȊȈȍȚ, ȒȈȒȖȊȖȑ ȌȖȓȎȕȈ ȉȣȚȤ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȈ ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȕȖ ȕȐȒȈȒ ȕȍ ȘȍȈȓȤȕțȦ ȍȍ ȗȘȐȘȖȌț1.

Ǫ șȊȖȦ ȖȟȍȘȍȌȤ, ǸȈșșȍȓ ǻȐȋȓȐ (Russell Weigley) țȚȊȍȘȎȌȈȍȚ, ȟȚȖ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȈ ȐȔȍȍȚ ȚȍȕȌȍȕȞȐȦ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚȤșȧ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚȖȔ ȊȖȑȕȣ. ǰșșȓȍȌțȧ ȔȐȘȖȊȣȍ ȊȖȑȕȣ 20 ȊȍȒȈ, ǻȐȋȓȐ ȗȘȐȝȖȌȐȚ Ȓ ȊȣȊȖȌț, ȟȚȖ «ȊȖȑȕȈ, ȕȈȟȈȊȠȐșȤ, ȊșȍȋȌȈ ȐȔȍȍȚ ȚȍȕȌȍȕȞȐȦ ȋȍȕȍȘȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ șȖȉșȚȊȍȕȕțȦ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒț: șȖȏȌȈȊȈȚȤ șȊȖȑ șȖȉșȚȊȍȕȕȣȑ ȔȖȔȍȕȚțȔ (ȐȕȍȘȞȐȦ), ȌȍȓȈȚȤ țșȚȈȘȍȊȠȐȔȐ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȞȍȓȐ, ȊȖ ȐȔȧ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȖȕȈ ȉȣȓȈ ȕȈȟȈȚȈ, Ȑ ȊȣȌȊȐȋȈȚȤ șȊȖȐ»2. ǹȖȋȓȈșȕȖ ȌȈȕȕȖȑ ȚȖȟȒȍ ȏȘȍȕȐȧ, ȓȖȋȐȒȈ ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȑ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȒȈ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȈ, ȖșȖȉȍȕȕȖ ȒȖȋȌȈ ȖȕȈ ȐȔȍȍȚ ȚȍȕȌȍȕȞȐȦ ȗȍȘȍȝȖȌȈ Ȓ ȚȖȚȈȓȤȕȣȔ ȜȖȘȔȈȔ, ȌȐȒȚțȍȚ șȊȖȐ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȐȧ Ȑ ȗȖȌȟȐȕȧȍȚ șȍȉȍ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒț.

ǷȘȖȉȓȍȔȈ DzȘȍȊȍȓȤȌȈ Ȑ ȌȘțȋȐȝ țȗȖȔȧȕțȚȣȝ ȊȣȠȍ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȍȑ ȏȈȒȓȦȟȈȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȕȍȒȖȘȘȍȒȚȕȖȑ ȐȕȚȍȘȗȘȍȚȈȞȐȐ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȈ. ǪȖ Ȋșȍȝ ȊȣȠȍȗȘȐȊȍȌȍȕȕȣȝ Ȑ ȈȕȈȓȖȋȐȟȕȣȝ șȓțȟȈȧȝ ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȐȚ șȔȍȠȍȕȐȍ ȚȈȒȐȝ ȗȖȕȧȚȐȑ, ȒȈȒ ȜȖȘȔȈ ȗȘȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȑ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȈ ȊȖȑȕȣ. ǰȕȈȟȍ ȋȖȊȖȘȧ, ȗȖȌ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧȔȐ Ȋ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȍ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȦȚșȧ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ Ȋ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȐȧȝ, ȜȖȘȔȈȝ Ȑ ȔȍȚȖȌȈȝ ȗȘȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ ȉȖȍȊȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ. ǵȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ, ǻȐȓȤȧȔ ǶȌȖȔ (William Odom)3, ȖȉșțȎȌȈȧ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ Ȋ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȍ ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȕȈ șȈȔȖȔ Ȍȍȓȍ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȍȚ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ Ȋ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȐȐ, DzȘȍȊȍȓȤȌ4, ȌȐșȒțȚȐȘțȧ ȗȖ ȗȖȊȖȌț ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȑ Ȋ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȍ ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȖȉșțȎȌȈȍȚ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ Ȋ ȜȖȘȔȍ ȗȘȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ ȊȖȑȕȣ, Ȉ ǸȖȉȍȘȚ ǴȈȒȒȖȘȔȐȒ (Robert McCormick)5 – ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ Ȋ ȗȘȐȟȐȕȈȝ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȖȊ Ȑ Ț.Ȍ.

ǶȟȍȊȐȌȕȖ, ȟȚȖ Ȋșȍ ȖȉșțȎȌȈȍȔȣȍ ȊȣȠȍ ȗȖȕȧȚȐȧ – ȊȖȑȕȈ, ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȈ, ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȖ, ȗȘȈȊȐȚȍȓȤșȚȊȖ – ȐȔȍȦȚ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȣȍ ȜȖȘȔȣ Ȋ ȏȈȊȐșȐȔȖșȚȐ ȖȚ ȐșȚȖȘȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȥȗȖȝȐ, ȒțȓȤȚțȘȣ, Ȑ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ ȌȐșȚȈȕȞȐȘțȍȚșȧ ȖȚ ȒȖȕȒȘȍȚȕȖȑ ȔȈȕȐȜȍșȚȈȞȐȐ ȌȈȕȕȣȝ ȗȖȕȧȚȐȑ. ǷȖȌ ȗȘȈȊȐȚȍȓȤșȚȊȖȔ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȓ ȕȍȒȐȑ țȗȘȈȊȓȧȦȡȐȑ ȖȘȋȈȕ, «ȒȖȕȞȍȕȚȘȈȞȐȦ șȊȖȉȖȌȕȖ ȈșșȖȞȐȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȣȝ șȐȓ» ȐȓȐ «ȗȍȘșȖȕȐȜȐȞȐȘȖȊȈȕ-

1 Creveld, Martin van. The Transformation of War. New York: Free Press, 1991, pp. 124-126;

Creveld, Martin van. “The Transformation of War Revisited,” in Robert J. Bunker (ed.). Non-State Threats and Future Wars, London: Frank Cass, 2003.

2 Weigley, Russell. “The Political and Strategic Dimensions of Military Effectiveness,” in Williamson, Murray and Allan R. Millett (Eds.) Military Effectiveness. Vol. 3, The Second World War, Boston, MA: Allen and Unwin, 1988, p. 341.

3 Odom, William E. America’s Military Revolution: Strategy and Structure after the Cold War. Washington, DC: American University, 1993.

4 Creveld, Martin van. “Through a Glass Darkly: Some Reflections on the Future of War,” Naval War College Review. Vol. LIII, No. 4, Autumn, 2000, pp. 25-44. 12 January 2011. http://www.nwc.navy.mil/press/Review/2000/autumn/art2-a00.htm.

5 McCormick, Robert R. The Changing Nature of Conflict. Chicago: Tribune Foundation, Cantigny Conference Series, 1995, p. 32.

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ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȕȣȑ țȔ». ǹȖȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊȍȕȕȖ ȗȖȌ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȔȐ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȓȐșȤ ȕȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȚȘȍȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȣȍ ȗȖȓțȗȘȖȜȍșșȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȈȘȔȐȐ ȕȈȗȖȓȍȖȕȖȊșȒȖȑ ȥȗȖȝȐ, ȕȖ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȕȣȍ șȖȍȌȐȕȍȕȐȧ Ȋșȍȝ ȥȗȖȝ1. ǬȖȗȖȓȕȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȍ ȚȘțȌȕȖșȚȐ ȊȕȖșȐȚ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȤ Ȑ ȕȍȖȌȕȖȏȕȈȟȕȖșȚȤ ȗȖȕȧȚȐȧ «ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȈ», șȖȊȔȍȡȈȦȡȍȋȖ Ȋ șȍȉȍ ȌȊȈ ȈșȗȍȒȚȈ – ȖȉȢȍȒȚȐȊȕȣȑ Ȑ șțȉȢȍȒȚȐȊȕȣȑ. ǶȉȢȍȒȚȐȊȕȣȑ ȈșȗȍȒȚ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȐ șȊȧȏȈȕ ȗȖȕȧȚȐȍȔ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȊȖȓȐ șțȉȢȍȒȚȈ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȐ. Ǫ ȌȈȕȕȖȔ șȓțȟȈȍ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȈ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȍȚ șȖȉȖȑ ȗȘȖȌȖȓȎȍȕȐȍ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȊȖȓȐ, ȘȍȈȓȐȏțȦȡȍȑșȧ Ȑ ȘȈȏȊȖȘȈȟȐȊȈȦȡȍȑșȧ ȟȍȘȍȏ ȜȖȘȔȈȓȤȕȣȑ ȐȓȐ ȕȍȜȖȘȔȈȓȤȕȣȑ ȗȘȖȞȍșș țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ, ȗȖșȘȍȌșȚȊȖȔ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȋȖ șțȉȢȍȒȚ ȌȖșȚȐȋȈȍȚ ȗȖșȚȈȊȓȍȕȕȣȝ Ȟȍȓȍȑ. ǹțȉȢȍȒȚȐȊȕȣȑ ȈșȗȍȒȚ ȗȖȕȧȚȐȧ «ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȈ» ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȍȚ șȖȉȖȑ șȗȍȞȐȜȐȟȕțȦ, ȘȈȏȊȍȘȕțȚțȦ ȊȖ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ ȔȈȕȐȜȍșȚȈȞȐȦ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȐ ȖȉȢȍȒȚȐȊȕȖȑ. ǰ ȍșȓȐ ȗȍȘȊȈȧ ȍșȚȤ ȒȈȚȍȋȖȘȐȧ ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ ȗȖșȚȖȧȕȕȈȧ Ȍȓȧ Ȋșȍȝ ȐșȚȖȘȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȥȗȖȝ Ȑ ȒțȓȤȚțȘ, ȚȖ ȊȚȖȘȈȧ ȗȘȍȌȗȖȓȈȋȈȍȚ ȕȈȓȐȟȐȍ ȘȈȏȕȖȖȉȘȈȏȕȣȝ ȜȖȘȔ Ȋ ȏȈȊȐșȐȔȖșȚȐ ȖȚ ȒțȓȤȚțȘȣ, ȐȌȍȖȓȖȋȐȐ, ȋȍȖȋȘȈȜȐȐ, ȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȑ, ȓȐȟȕȖșȚȍȑ Ȑ ȗȘȖȟȍȑ șȗȍȞȐȜȐȒȐ ȌȈȕȕȖȋȖȒȖȕȒȘȍȚȕȖȋȖȖȉȡȍșȚȊȈ.

DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ ȐșșȓȍȌțȍȚ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒț ȖȉȢȍȒȚȐȊȕțȦ, ȒȖȚȖȘțȦ Ȗȕ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȍȚ ȒȈȒ «ȐșȒțșșȚȊȖ», Ȋ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȔ ȉȖȓȤȠțȦ ȘȖȓȤ ȐȋȘȈȦȚ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȟȍșȒȐȍ «șțȎȌȍȕȐȧ», ȏȈȊȐșȧȡȐȍ ȖȚ «ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȈ țȔȈ Ȑ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘȈ». ǵȈ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒț ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȦȚ ȉȖȓȤȠȖȍ ȊȓȐȧȕȐȍ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȊȕȍȠȕȐȍ ȜȈȒȚȖȘȣ, ȚȈȒȐȍ ȒȈȒ «șȗȍȞȐȜȐȒȈ» țȗȘȈȊȓȧȦȡȍȋȖ ȖȘȋȈȕȈ, ȋȍȖȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȈȧ ȗȖȏȐȞȐȧ, ȖȉȡȐȍ țȔȖȕȈșȚȘȖȍȕȐȧ, «Ȍțȝ ȥȗȖȝȐ». DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ ȖȉȢȧșȕȧȍȚ, ȟȚȖ Ȕȣ ȐȔȍȍȔ ȌȍȓȖ ș ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȖȑ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȍȔ ȕȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȕȈȗȖȓȍȖȕȖȊșȒțȦ ȥȗȖȝț, ȕȖ Ȑ ȚȈȚȈȘȖ-ȔȖȕȋȖȓȤșȒȐȍ ȕȈȠȍșȚȊȐȧ. ǽȖȚȧ Ȋ ȒȈȎȌȖȔ Ȑȏ ȌȈȕȕȣȝ șȓțȟȈȍȊ Ȕȣ șȚȈȓȒȐȊȈȍȔșȧ ș ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȖȑ șȗȍȞȐȜȐȒȖȑ, ȚȍȔ ȕȍ Ȕȍȕȍȍ Ȋ ȖȉȖȐȝ șȓțȟȈȧȝ ȥȚȖ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȈ, Ȑ ȖȕȈ ȖȗȐȘȈȍȚșȧ ȕȈ ȖȌȕȐ Ȑ Țȍ Ȏȍ ȜȈȒȚȖȘȣ. ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, ȗȖȕȧȚȐȍ «ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȈ» ț DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȈ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȍȚșȧ Ȍȓȧ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ ȒȖȓȓȍȒȚȐȊȕȖȑ șȐȓȣ ȐȓȐ șȓȈȉȖșȚȐ ȕȈȘȖȌȕȖȋȖ ȚȍȓȈ, ȊȒȓȦȟȈȧ ȍȋȖ ȘȍșțȘșȣ, șȖȦȏȣ, șȖȉșȚȊȍȕȕȖ ȗȘȖȞȍșș ȗȘȐȕȧȚȐȧ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȑ, ȗȖȌȋȖȚȖȊȓȍȕȕȖșȚȤ Ȑ ȗȍȘșȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȑ șȖșȚȈȊ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȖȊ Ȑ ȗȘ. ǵȖ ȚȈȒȖȍ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȐ ȕȐȟȍȔ ȕȍ ȖȚȓȐȟȈȍȚșȧ ȖȚ ȚȖȋȖ, ȟȚȖ DzȐȋȈȕ Ȑ ȌȘțȋȐȍ ȕȈȏȣȊȈȦȚ ȒțȓȤȚțȘȖȑ2.

2.4 ǺȍȖȘȐȧ ȊȖȑȕȣ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȈ

2.4.1 ǰșȚȖȘȐȟȍșȒȐȑ ȒȖȕȚȍȒșȚ. ǽȖȚȧ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ ȟȈșȚȖ ȞȐȚȐȘțȍȚșȧ, ȖșȖȉȍȕȕȖ Ȋ șȊȧȏȐ ș ȕȍȖȒȖȕȟȍȕȕȖȑ ȒȕȐȋȖȑ «Ƕ ȊȖȑȕȍ», Ȋ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ ȐȏȓȖȎȍȕȣ ȖșȕȖȊȕȣȍ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȣ ȍȋȖ ȊȐȌȍȕȐȧ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȚȍȔ ȕȍ Ȕȍȕȍȍ ȐȔȍȦȚșȧ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȣȍ ȚȘțȌȕȖșȚȐ Ȋ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȐ ȍȋȖ ȐȌȍȑ Ȑ ȘȈȉȖȚ, ȗȘȐȊȖȌȧȡȐȍ Ȓ ȗȖȧȊȓȍȕȐȦ ȔȕȖȎȍșȚȊȈ ȐȕȚȍȘȗȘȍȚȈȞȐȑ. ǶȚȟȈșȚȐ ȥȚȖ ȖȉȢȧșȕȧȍȚșȧ ȚȍȔ, ȟȚȖȊȏȋȓȧȌȣ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȈ ȕȍ șȖȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊțȦȚ ȘȧȌț ȜțȕȌȈȔȍȕȚȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȗȈȘȈȔȍȚȘȖȊ, șȊȧȏȣȊȈȍȔȣȝ ș ȗȖȕȧȚȐȍȔ «ȚȍȖȘȐȧ», ȚȈȒȐȔȐ ȒȈȒ

1 Echevarria, Globalization and the Nature of War, p. 10. 2 Ibid, pȘ. 10-11.

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ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

țȗȘȖȡȍȕȐȍ, ȖȉȖȉȡȍȕȐȍ, ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȕȐȍ Ȑ ȗȘ1. ǸȧȌ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȍȑ, ȚȈȒȐȍ ȒȈȒ ǸȈȑȔȖȕȌ ǨȘȖȕ (Raymond Aron), șȊȧȏȣȊȈȦȚ ȥȚȖ ș ȘȈȕȕȍȑ șȔȍȘȚȤȦ ȈȊȚȖȘȈ Ȑ ȕȍȏȈȊȍȘȠȍȕȕȖșȚȤȦ ȘȈȉȖȚȣ, ȕȍ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȐȊȠȍȑ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞț ȖȚȠȓȐȜȖȊȈȚȤ ȍȍ. ǺȍȔ șȈȔȣȔ ȕȍȌȖȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ Ȑ ȌȊțșȔȣșȓȍȕȕȖșȚȤ ȒȕȐȋȐ «Ƕ ȊȖȑȕȍ» șȊȧȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ș șȈȔȐȔ ȚȘțȌȖȔ2. ǬȘțȋȖȑ ȗȖȌȝȖȌ Ȓ ȖȉȢȧșȕȍȕȐȦ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȍȑ ș ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȍȔ ȥȚȖȋȖ ȚȘțȌȈ șȊȧȏȈȕ ș ȐȔȍȕȍȔ ǴȐȠȍȓȧ ǫȍȕȌȍȓȧ (Michael Handel), țȚȊȍȘȎȌȈȦȡȍȋȖ, ȟȚȖ ȐȏȔȍȕȐȓȐșȤ ȕȍ ȐȕȚȍȘȗȘȍȚȈȞȐȐ, Ȉ șȈȔȈ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȈ ȊȖȑȕȣ. ǨșȗȍȒȚȣ ȊȖȑȕȣ, șȊȧȏȈȕȕȣȍ ș ȗȘȐȘȖȌȖȑ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȒȈ, ȕȍȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȖșȚȤȦ, ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȖȑ, «ȖșȚȈȦȚșȧ ȕȍȐȏȔȍȕȕȖ șȗȘȈȊȍȌȓȐȊȣȔȐ. <…> ǪȖ Ȋșȍȝ ȖșȚȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȧȝ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȧ ȗȘȖȕȐȏȈȓȈ Ȑ ȉȍȏȊȖȏȊȘȈȚȕȖ ȐȏȔȍȕȐȓȈ ȒȈȎȌȣȑ ȈșȗȍȒȚ ȊȖȑȕȣ»3. ǷȖ ǫȍȕȌȍȓȦ, ȚȘțȌȕȖșȚȐ Ȋ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȐ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȈ șȊȧȏȈȕȣ ș ȚȍȔ, ȟȚȖ șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȑ ȔȐȘ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖ ȖȚȓȐȟȈȍȚșȧ ȖȚ ȚȖȋȖ, Ȋ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȔ ȎȐȓ Ȑ ȘȈȉȖȚȈȓ Ȗȕ. ǷȐȚȍȘ ǷȈȘȍȚ (Peter Paret) șȊȧȏȣȊȈȍȚ ȗȖȧȊȓȍȕȐȍ ȔȕȖȎȍșȚȊȈ ȐȕȚȍȘȗȘȍȚȈȞȐȑ ș ȗȖȗȣȚȒȈȔȐ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȐȚȤ ȐȌȍȐ Ȑ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȣ ȒȕȐȋȐ Ȓ șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȔ ȘȍȈȓȐȧȔ. ǷȘȐ ȥȚȖȔ ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȐȚ ȖȚȘȣȊ ȖȚ ȐșȚȖȘȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȒȖȕȚȍȒșȚȈ, Ȋ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȔ ȉȣȓȈ ȕȈȗȐșȈȕȈ ȘȈȉȖȚȈ, Ȑ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ ȊȣȋȓȧȌȐȚ «ȜȘȈȋȔȍȕȚȈȘȕȣȔ Ȑ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȘȍȟȐȊȣȔ Ȋ șȊȖȐȝ ȗȖȐșȒȈȝ» Ȋ șȐȓț ȕȍȘȈȏȊȐȚȖșȚȐ ȕȈȠȍȋȖ ȐșȚȖȘȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ șȖȏȕȈȕȐȧ4. ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, ȗȘȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐ Ȋșȍ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȐ șȖȋȓȈșȕȣ Ȋ ȖȌȕȖȔ: ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȈ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ ȉȍȏ ȏȕȈȒȖȔșȚȊȈ ș ȐșȚȖȘȐȟȍșȒȐȔ ȒȖȕȚȍȒșȚȖȔ, Ȋ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȔ ȗȖȧȊȐȓȈșȤ ȕȈ șȊȍȚȒȕȐȋȈ «ǶȊȖȑȕȍ».

ǺȊȖȘȟȍșȚȊȖ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȈ ȗȘȐȠȓȖșȤ ȕȈ ȗȍȘȐȖȌ ȋȓțȉȖȒȐȝ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȗȍȘȍȔȍȕ, ȖȝȊȈȚȐȊȠȐȝ ǭȊȘȖȗț Ȑ ȗȘȐȊȍȌȠȐȝ Ȓ ȗȖȧȊȓȍȕȐȦ șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȝ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊ Ȑ ȍȊȘȖȗȍȑșȒȐȝ ȕȈȞȐȑ. ǷȘȖȞȍșșȣ, ȐȕȐȞȐȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȣȍ ǼȘȈȕȞțȏșȒȖȑ ȘȍȊȖȓȦȞȐȍȑ, ȖȝȊȈȚȐȓȐ Ȋșȍ șȚȖȘȖȕȣ ȎȐȏȕȐ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȈ, ȊȒȓȦȟȈȧ ȊȖȍȕȕțȦ șȜȍȘț. ǶȗȈșȕȖșȚȤ, ȒȖȚȖȘțȦ ȕȍșȓȈ șȖȉȖȑ ȘȍȊȖȓȦȞȐȖȕȕȈȧ ǼȘȈȕȞȐȧ, ȧȊȕȖ ȉȣȓȈ șȊȧȏȈȕȈ ȕȍ ș ȗȘȍȐȔțȡȍșȚȊȈȔȐ Ȋ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȐȐ, ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȧȝ, ȚȈȒȚȐȒȍ, ȝȖȚȧ ȜȘȈȕȞțȏșȒȈȧ ȈȘȔȐȧ ȖȉȓȈȌȈȓȈ ȕȍȗȘȍȊȏȖȑȌȍȕȕȖȑ ȈȘȚȐȓȓȍȘȐȍȑ Ȑ «ȉȓȍșȚȧȡȍ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȓȈ ȕȖȊȣȍ ȋȐȉȒȐȍ Ȑ ȘȈșȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȣȍ șȖȍȌȐȕȍȕȐȧ ȗȍȝȖȚȣ», ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȘȈȏȊȐȊȈȓȐșȤ ȍȡȍ ȌȖ 1789 ȋȖȌȈ5.

ǬȓȧțșȗȍȠȕȖȋȖȗȘȖȚȐȊȖșȚȖȧȕȐȧȕȖȊȖȑțȋȘȖȏȍȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖȉȣȓȖȘȈȏȖȉȘȈȚȤșȧȊ ȋȓțȉȐȕȕȣȝ ȗȘȐȟȐȕȈȝ Ȑ ȌȊȐȎțȡȐȝ șȐȓȈȝ ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȧȡȐȝ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȑ – ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȈ, ȏȈȕȐȔȈȊȠȈȧ ș 1795 ȋȖȌȈ ȔȣșȓȐ ȀȈȘȕȋȖșȚȈ, țȟȐȚȍȓȧ Ȑ ȊȚȖȘȖȋȖ ȖȚȞȈ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȈ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ «ȗȍȘȊȣȑ ȗȖȒȈȏȈȓ ȍȔț ȗȘȈȊȐȓȤȕȖȍ ȕȈȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȍ»6. ȀȈȘȕȋȖșȚ ȕȈȟȈȓ șȊȖȦ ȒȈȘȤȍȘț Ȋ ȋȈȕȕȖȊȍȘșȒȖȑ ȈȘȔȐȐ. ǸȈȕȕȍȍ ȗȘȐȏȕȈȕȐȍ ȍȋȖ ȗȘȍȗȖȌȈȊȈȚȍȓȤșȒȖȋȖ ȚȈȓȈȕȚȈ

1 Beyerchen, Clausewitz, Nonlinearity and the Importance of Imagery, p. 70.

2 Aron, Raymond. Clausewitz: Philosopher of War. trans. Booker, Christine and Norman Stone. London: Routledge and Kegan Paul, 1983, p. 6.

3 Handel, Michael I. War, Strategy and Intelligence. London: Frank Cass, 1989, p. 60. 4 Paret. Clausewitz and the State, pȘ. 8-9.

5 Clausewitz, On War, p. 609.

6 ǾȐȚȈȚȈ Ȏȍȕȣ, ǴȈȘȐȐ ȜȖȕ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ (Marie von Clausewitz) ȗȖ Clausewitz, On War, p. 65.

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ȗȘȐȊȍȓȖ Ȓ ȚȖȔț, ȟȚȖ ȗȍȘȊȣȍ 15 ȓȍȚ ȍȋȖ ȒȈȘȤȍȘȣ ȉȣȓȐ ȗȖșȊȧȡȍȕȣ ȖȉțȟȍȕȐȦ ȖȜȐȞȍȘȖȊ Ȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȔț ȖȉȘȈȏȖȊȈȕȐȦ. Dz ȕȈȟȈȓț 1790 ȋȖȌȈ Ȗȕ ȐȔȍȓ «Ȋ ȈȘȔȐȧȝ ȞȍȕȚȘȈȓȤȕȖȑ ǭȊȘȖȗȣ țșȚȖȧȊȠțȦșȧ ȘȍȗțȚȈȞȐȦ ȏȕȈȦȡȍȋȖ Ȑ ȗȓȖȌȖȊȐȚȖȋȖ ȗȐșȈȚȍȓȧ ȕȈ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ ȚȍȔȣ, ȐȏȖȉȘȍȚȈȚȍȓȧ țșȖȊȍȘȠȍȕșȚȊȖȊȈȕȐȑ Ȍȓȧ ȈȘȚȐȓȓȍȘȐȐ Ȑ ȘȍȌȈȒȚȖȘȈ ȘȧȌȈ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝȗȍȘȐȖȌȐȟȍșȒȐȝȐȏȌȈȕȐȑ»1.

ȀȈȘȕȋȖșȚ ȗȣȚȈȓșȧ ȗȖȕȧȚȤ: «DzȈȒ șȓțȟȐȓȖșȤ, ȟȚȖ ȥȚȈ ȟȍȘȕȤ – ȕȍȖȉțȟȍȕȕȈȧ, ȕȍȌȐșȞȐȗȓȐȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȈȧ, ȉȍȏ ȖȜȐȞȍȘșȒȖȋȖ șȖșȚȈȊȈ, ș ȋȍȕȍȘȈȓȈȔȐ, ȕȍ ȐȔȍȦȡȐȔȐ ȖȜȐȞȍȘșȒȖȋȖ ȏȊȈȕȐȧ Ȑ șȌȍȓȈȊȠȐȔȐ ȋȖȓȖȊȖȒȘțȎȐȚȍȓȤȕțȦ ȒȈȘȤȍȘț, ȉȍȏ ȈȌȍȒȊȈȚȕȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȍȕȐȧ, ȕȍ ȋȖȊȖȘȧ țȎ Ȗ ȒȈȒȖȑ-ȓȐȉȖ șȍȘȤȍȏȕȖȑ ȈȌȔȐȕȐșȚȘȈȚȐȊȕȖȑ șȚȘțȒȚțȘȍ, ȒȈȒ ȥȚȖ ȔȖȋȓȖ șȓțȟȐȚȤșȧ, ȟȚȖ ȥȚȐ <…> șȐȓȣ ȕȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ șȔȖȋȓȐ țșȚȖȧȚȤ ȗȘȖȚȐȊ ȗȘȖȜȍșșȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȝ șȖȓȌȈȚ ȍȊȘȖȗȍȑșȒȐȝ ȌȍȘȎȈȊ, ȕȖ, ȜȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐ, ȕȈȕȍșȓȐ ȐȔ ȗȖȘȈȎȍȕȐȍ»2. ǶȚȊȍȟȈȧ ȕȈ ȊȖȗȘȖș, ȀȈȘȕȋȖșȚ ȗȘȐȊȓȍȒȈȍȚ ȊȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ Ȓ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȗȖȏȐȞȐȐ, ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊț ȊȖȑșȒ, ȖȉȢȍȌȐȕȍȕȕȖȔț ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȔț Ȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȔț ȒȖȔȈȕȌȖȊȈȕȐȦ, Ȉ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȗȘȍȊȖșȝȖȌșȚȊț ȜȘȈȕȞțȏșȒȖȑ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ Ȑ ȚȈȒȚȐȒȐ3.

ǶȌȕȈȒȖ ȗȖȔȐȔȖ Ȋșȍȝ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȈȘȋțȔȍȕȚȖȊ ȋȓțȉȐȕȕȈȧ ȗȘȐȟȐȕȈ Ȑ șȐȓȈ țșȗȍȝȖȊ ǼȘȈȕȞȐȐ ȏȈȒȓȦȟȈȓȈșȤ Ȋ ȥȕȍȘȋȐȐ ȖșȊȖȉȖȎȌȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȕȈȘȖȌȈ – ȜȈȒȚȖȘ, ȕȈȗȘȧȔțȦ șȊȧȏȈȕȕȣȑ ș ȘȍȊȖȓȦȞȐȍȑ, ȚȘȈȕșȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȍȑ ȜȘȈȕȞțȏșȒȖȋȖ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȈ Ȑ ȗȖȧȊȓȍȕȐȍȔ ȐȌȍȐ ȜȘȈȕȞțȏșȒȖȑ ȕȈȞȐȐ. ǪȣȧșȕȐȊ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȖ-ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȑ ȉȈȏȐș ȜȘȈȕȞțȏșȒȖȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȔȖȡȐ, ȀȈȘȕȋȖșȚ ȏȈȌȈȓșȧ ȊȖȗȘȖșȖȔ: ȒȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ ȔȖȕȈȘȝȐȐ ȔȖȋțȚ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖșȚȖȧȚȤ ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȧȡȐȔ Ȋ ǭȊȘȖȗȍ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȖ-ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȔ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧȔ? ǶȚȊȍȚ ȉȣȓ ȖȉȍșȒțȘȈȎȐȊȈȦȡȐȔ: ȔȖȕȈȘȝȐȐ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȘȖȊȈȚȤșȧ Ȓ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧȔ Ȑ ȌȊȐȋȈȚȤșȧ Ȓ ȗȖȕȧȚȐȦ ȕȈȞȐȧ. ǶȌȕȈȒȖ ȊȖȏȕȐȒȈȓ ȊȖȗȘȖș: «ȔȖȎȕȖ ȓȐ șȖȏȌȈȚȤ ȕȈȞȐȦ, ȐșȒȓȦȟȐȊ ȚȖ, ȟȚȖ șȌȍȓȈȓȈ ǼȘȈȕȞȐȧ ȕȐȏȊȍȘȎȍȕȐȍȔ ȔȖȕȈȘȝȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȐȕșȚȐȚțȚȖȊ Ȑ șȖȏȌȈȕȐȍȔ ȌȐȒȚȈȚțȘȣ ȗȓȍȉșȖȒȘȈȚȐȐ, țȗȘȈȊȓȧȍȔȖȑ ȚȍȘȘȖȘȖȔ?»4

Ǫ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ ȗȘȐȍȔȓȍȔȖȋȖ ȗțȚȐ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȧ Ȑ ȗȍȘȊȖȋȖ ȠȈȋȈ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȘȍȜȖȘȔ ȀȈȘȕȋȖșȚ ȗȘȍȌȓȖȎȐȓ ȗȘȐșȚțȗȐȚȤ Ȓ ȔȖȌȍȘȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ ȋȈȕȕȖȊȍȘșȒȐȝ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȐȕșȚȐȚțȚȖȊ. Ƕȕ ȕȈșȚȈȐȊȈȓ ȕȈ ȖȉȧȏȈȚȍȓȤȕȖȔ ȗȖȓțȟȍȕȐȐ ȖȜȐȞȍȘȈȔȐ ȝȖȘȖȠȍȋȖ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȊȈȕȐȧ, ȐșȒȓȦȟȍȕȐȐ ȕȍȗȖȚȐȏȔȈ Ȑ ȜȈȊȖȘȐȚȐȏȔȈ, ȘȈșȠȐȘȍȕȐȐ Ȑ ȗȍȘȍȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȐȐ ȈȘȚȐȓȓȍȘȐȐ, ȚȘȈȕșȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȐ ȚȈȒȚȐȒȐ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȈȘȚȐȓȓȍȘȐȐ ș ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȍȔ ȜȘȈȕȞțȏșȒȖȋȖ ȖȗȣȚȈ, țȟȘȍȎȌȍȕȐȐ ȕȍȗȘȍȘȣȊȕȖ ȜțȕȒȞȐȖȕȐȘțȦȡȍȋȖ ȐȕșȚȐȚțȚȈ ȋȍȕȍȘȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȠȚȈȉȈ, ȘȍȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ ȈȘȔȐȐ ș șȖȏȌȈȕȐȍȔ ȌȐȊȐȏȐȑ Ȑ ȊȊȍȌȍȕȐȐ ȊȖȐȕșȒȖȑ ȗȖȊȐȕȕȖșȚȐ Ȍȓȧ țȔȍȕȤȠȍȕȐȧ ȕȈȍȔȕȖȋȖ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘȈ ȈȘȔȐȐ. ǶȌȕȈȒȖ ǫȍȖȘȋ III (George III), ȋȈȕȕȖȊȍȘșȒȐȍ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ Ȑ ȈȘȐșȚȖȒȘȈȚȐȧ ȕȍ ȗȖȕȧȓȐ Ȑ ȕȍ ȗȘȐȕȧȓȐ ȐȌȍȦ ȘȍȜȖȘȔ, «ȀȈȘȕȋȖșȚ ȐȋȕȖȘȐȘȖȊȈȓșȧ ȒȈȒ ȊȐȏȐȖȕȍȘ

1 Paret. Clausewitz and the State, p. 62.

2 Howard, Michael. Clausewitz. Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press, 1983, p. 7. 3 Paret, Clausewitz and the State, p. 64.

4 Howard, Clausewitz, p. 17.

116

ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȐȓȐ ȈȔȉȐȞȐȖȏȕȣȑ șȔțȚȤȧȕ, Ȑ ȊȣșȖȒȐȍ ȌȖȓȎȕȖșȚȐ ȗȘȖȌȖȓȎȈȓȐ ȏȈȕȐȔȈȚȤșȧ ȓȦȌȤȔȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȕȍ ȠȓȐ ȕȐ Ȋ ȒȈȒȖȍ șȘȈȊȕȍȕȐȍ ș ȕȐȔ»1.

ȀȈȘȕȋȖșȚ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ Ȋ ǩȍȘȓȐȕȍ, Ȑ ȖȌȕȐȔ Ȑȏ ȗȍȘȊȣȝ ȕȖȊȖȊȊȍȌȍȕȐȑ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ Ȗȕ ȗȘȖȊȖȌȐȚ Ȋ ȕȖȊȖȑ ȘȖȓȐ, șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȗȍȘȍȐȔȍȕȖȊȈȕȐȍ ǩȍȘȓȐȕșȒȖȋȖ ȐȕșȚȐȚțȚȈ ȔȖȓȖȌȣȝ ȖȜȐȞȍȘȖȊ Ȋ ǵȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕțȦ ȈȒȈȌȍȔȐȦ. ǺȈȒ ȒȈȒ Ȗȕ șȈȔ ȗȘȍȗȖȌȈȍȚ Ȋ ȈȒȈȌȍȔȐȐ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȦ Ȑ ȚȈȒȚȐȒț, ȚȖ ȀȈȘȕȋȖșȚ șȒȖȘȖ ȏȕȈȒȖȔȐȚșȧ ș DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȍȔ Ȑ ȖȚȌȈȍȚ ȌȖȓȎȕȖȍ ȉȓȍșȚȧȡȐȔ șȗȖșȖȉȕȖșȚȧȔ ȔȖȓȖȌȖȋȖ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȒȈ. DzȖ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ, ȒȖȋȌȈ Ȋ 1804 ȋȖȌț DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ ȖȒȈȕȟȐȊȈȍȚ ȚȘȍȝȓȍȚȕȐȍ ȒțȘșȣ, ȘțȒȖȊȖȌȐȚȍȓȤ ȍȋȖ ȒȓȈșșȈ, ȀȈȘȕȋȖșȚ, ȌȖȒȓȈȌȣȊȈȍȚ ȒȖȘȖȓȦ ǼȘȐȌȘȐȝț III (Frederick William III), ȟȚȖ ȓȍȑȚȍȕȈȕȚ ȜȖȕ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ ȗȖȒȈȏȈȓ, ȗȖȔȐȔȖ ȗȘȖȟȐȝ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊ, «ȕȍȖȉȣȟȈȑȕȖ ȝȖȘȖȠȐȑ ȈȕȈȓȐȏ ȞȍȓȖȋȖ»2.

2.4.2 ǶȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȧ ȊȖȑȕȣ. ǷȣȚȈȧșȤ ȗȖȕȧȚȤ ȗȘȐȘȖȌț ȊȖȑȕȣ, DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ ȗȘȐȝȖȌȐȚ Ȓ ȊȣȊȖȌț, ȟȚȖ ȖȕȈ ȗȖ șȊȖȍȑ șțȚȐ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȣȔ ȧȊȓȍȕȐȍȔ. ǷȘȐȘȖȌȈ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȐȏȔȍȕȟȐȊȈ, Ȑ ȔȍȚȖȌȣ ȍȍ ȗȘȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ, ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣ ȉȖȍȊȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ ȕȍȗȖșȘȍȌșȚȊȍȕȕȖ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊțȦȚ ȕȈ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȐ, ȗȘȐȟȍȔ ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȧȡȐȍ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȐȔȍȦȚ ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȣȑ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘ3. ǪȖȑȕȈ, ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ, ȥȚȖ «ȐșȚȐȕȕȣȑ ȝȈȔȍȓȍȖȕ», ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ ȌȍȔȖȕșȚȘȐȘțȍȚ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕțȦ ȗȘȐȘȖȌț Ȋ ȒȈȎȌȖȔ ȒȖȕȒȘȍȚȕȖȔ șȓțȟȈȍ4. ǩțȌțȟȐ ȝȖȘȖȠȐȔ ȚȍȖȘȍȚȐȒȖȔ, DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ ȕȈȟȐȕȈȍȚ ș ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȧ ȗȖȕȧȚȐȧ ȊȖȑȕȣ. ǹȓȖȎȕȖșȚȤ ȐȏțȟȈȍȔȖȋȖ ȧȊȓȍȕȐȧ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚ Ȓ ȚȖȔț, ȟȚȖ Ȋ «Ƕ ȊȖȑȕȍ» ȌȈȍȚșȧ ȕȍ ȖȌȕȖ, Ȉ ȚȘȐ Ȋșȍ ȉȖȓȍȍ țșȓȖȎȕȧȦȡȐȝșȧ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȧ ȊȖȑȕȣ.

ǷȍȘȊȖȍ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȍ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚ, Ȗ ȚȖȔ, ȟȚȖ «ȊȖȑȕȈ ȍșȚȤ ȕȍ ȟȚȖ ȐȕȖȍ, ȒȈȒ ȘȈșȠȐȘȍȕȕȖȍ ȍȌȐȕȖȉȖȘșȚȊȖ (Zweikampf) <…> ȥȚȖ ȈȒȚ ȕȈșȐȓȐȧ, ȐȔȍȦȡȐȑ ȞȍȓȤȦ ȏȈșȚȈȊȐȚȤ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ ȊȣȗȖȓȕȐȚȤ ȕȈȠț ȊȖȓȦ»5. ǺȈȒ ȒȈȒ Ȗȉȍ șȚȖȘȖȕȣ ȐȔȍȦȚ ȖȌȕȐ Ȑ Țȍ Ȏȍ ȕȈȔȍȘȍȕȐȧ, ȊȖȑȕȈ ȍșȚȤ ȕȍ ȟȚȖ ȐȕȖȍ, ȒȈȒ «ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȍ» (Wechselwirkung), Ȑ «ȊȖȑȕȈ ȕȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȚȤ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȎȐȊȖȑ șȐȓȣ ȕȈ ȔȍȘȚȊțȦ ȔȈșșț, Ȑ ȗȘȐ ȈȉșȖȓȦȚȕȖȑ ȗȈșșȐȊȕȖșȚȐ ȖȌȕȖȑ șȚȖȘȖȕȣ ȖȕȈ ȊȖȖȉȡȍ ȕȍȔȣșȓȐȔȈ. ǪȖȑȕȈ ȊșȍȋȌȈ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ șȚȖȓȒȕȖȊȍȕȐȍȔ ȌȊțȝ ȎȐȊȣȝ șȐȓ…»6. ǰȕȚȍȘȈȒȚȐȊȕȈȧ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȈ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚ Ȓ ȚȖȔț, ȟȚȖ ȊȖȑȕȈ ț DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȈ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ țȗȘȈȊȓȧȍȔȖȑ Ȑ ȕȈȗȘȈȊȓȧȍȔȖȑ ȊȖȓȍȑ, ȗșȐȝȐȟȍșȒȐȔȐ Ȑ ȌțȝȖȊȕȣȔȐ șȐȓȈȔȐ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȉȖȘșȚȊțȦȡȐȝ șȚȖȘȖȕ, șȊȧȏȈȕȕȣȝ ȔȍȎȌț șȖȉȖȑ ȗȖȓȖȎȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȔȐ ȖȉȘȈȚȕȣȔȐ

1 Paret, Clausewitz and the State, p. 65.

2 Ibid, p. 76.

3 Dickerson, Brian. “Adaptability: A New Principle of War,” in Williamson, Murray (Ed). National Security Challenges for the 21st Century. Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute (SSI), US Army War College, October 2003, p. 206. 12 January 2011. http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB4.pdf.

4 Clausewitz, On War, p. 89.

5 Ibid, p. 73.

6 Ibid, p. 77.

117

ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

șȊȧȏȧȔȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ, ȚȍȖȘȍȚȐȟȍșȒȐ, ȌȖ ȉȍșȒȖȕȍȟȕȖșȚȐ țȊȍȓȐȟȐȊȈȦȚ ȕȈȗȘȧȎȍȕȐȍ șȝȊȈȚȒȐ ȌȖ Țȍȝ ȗȖȘ, ȗȖȒȈ ȖȌȕȈ Ȑȏ șȚȖȘȖȕ ȕȍ ȗȘȐȏȕȈȍȚ șȊȖȍ ȗȖȘȈȎȍȕȐȍ. ǪȖȑȕȈ – ȒȈȒ ȉȍșȒȖȕȍȟȕȈȧ ȥșȒȈȓȈȞȐȧ, ȕȈȗȘȧȎȍȕȐȍ Ȋșȍȝ șȐȓ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȉȖȘșȚȊțȦȡȐȝ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊ: ȔȈȚȍȘȐȈȓȤȕȣȝ, ȐȕȚȍȓȓȍȒȚțȈȓȤȕȣȝ, ȌțȝȖȊȕȣȝ.

ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, ȊȖȑȕȈ ț DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȈ ȕȍ ȍșȚȤ țȗȖȘȧȌȖȟȍȕȕȈȧ, ȟȍȘȍȌțȦȡȈȧșȧ ȊȖ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ ȗȖșȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȤȕȖșȚȤ ȕȈȔȍȘȍȕȐȑ Ȑ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ ȒȈȎȌȖȑ Ȑȏ șȚȖȘȖȕ, ȕȖ șȓȖȎȕȣȑ ȗȈȚȚȍȘȕ, ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȖ, ȜȖȘȔȐȘțȍȔȖȍ ȕȍȗȘȍȘȣȊȕȣȔ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȍȔ Ȑ ȖȌȕȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȔȐ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧȔȐ ȉȖȘȦȡȐȝșȧ șȚȖȘȖȕ. ȅȚȖ ȌȍȓȈȍȚ ȕȍ șȖȊșȍȔ ȈȌȍȒȊȈȚȕȣȔ ȗȍȘȍȊȖȌ ȗȖȕȧȚȐȧ Zweikampf ȒȈȒ «ȍȌȐȕȖȉȖȘșȚȊȖ». ǩȖȓȍȍ ȈȌȍȒȊȈȚȕȣȔ șȓȍȌțȍȚ ȗȘȐȏȕȈȚȤ ȌȖșȓȖȊȕȣȑ ȗȍȘȍȊȖȌ ȚȍȘȔȐȕȈ – «ȌȊȖȍȉȖȘȤȍ», Ȑ șȘȈȊȕȍȕȐȍ ȊȖȑȕȣ șȖ șȝȊȈȚȒȖȑ ȉȖȘȞȖȊ, Ȋ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ ȗȘȖșȚȖ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ ȌȖșȚȐȟȤ ȗȖȉȍȌȣ ȉȍȏ ȕȍȗȖșȘȍȌșȚȊȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȒȖȕȚȈȒȚȈ, Ȉ ȘȍȈȓȐȏțȍȔȈȧ ȚȈȒȚȐȒȈ Ȑ ȗȘȐȍȔȣ ȚȍȘȧȦȚ șȔȣșȓ ȗȘȐ ȖȚșțȚșȚȊȐȐ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȉȖȘșȚȊȈ Ȑ șȖȗȘȖȚȐȊȓȍȕȐȧ șȖ șȚȖȘȖȕȣ șȖȗȍȘȕȐȒȈ1.

ǵȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖșȚȤ ȘȈșșȔȖȚȘȍȕȐȧ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȒȖȕȚȍȒșȚȈ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȈ ȒȖ ȊȚȖȘȖȔț, ȕȈȐȉȖȓȍȍ ȐȏȊȍșȚȕȖȔț, ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȦ, ȟȚȖ «ȊȖȑȕȈ ȍșȚȤ ȗȘȖȌȖȓȎȍȕȐȍ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȐ, ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȐȕȣȔȐ șȘȍȌșȚȊȈȔȐ»2, Ȋ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȔ Ȗȕ ȗȣȚȈȍȚșȧ țȝȊȈȚȐȚȤ ȕȍȗȘȍȘȣȊȕȖ ȔȍȕȧȦȡȐȍșȧ ȈșȗȍȒȚȣ ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȗȘȐȊȖȌȧȡȐȍ ȍȋȖ Ȓ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘȐșȚȐȒȍ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȒȈȒ ȝȈȔȍȓȍȖȕȈ. DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ ȗȘȐȝȖȌȐȚ Ȓ ȊȣȊȖȌț Ȗ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȘȈșșȔȖȚȘȍȕȐȧ ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȋ ȐȏȖȓȧȞȐȐ ȖȚ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ șȐȚțȈȞȐȐ, ȊșȍȋȖ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȒȖȕȚȍȒșȚȈ, ș ȒȖȚȖȘȣȔȐ ȖȕȈ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ șȊȧȏȈȕȕȖȑ ȔȕȖȋȖȟȐșȓȍȕȕȣȔȐ ȖȉȘȈȚȕȣȔȐ șȊȧȏȧȔȐ, ȗȘȐȊȖȌȧȡȐȔȐ Ȓ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȊȓȐȧȕȐȦ Ȑ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȖȉțșȓȖȊȓȍȕȕȖșȚȐ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȍȔȣȝ ȧȊȓȍȕȐȑ. ǸȈșȒȘȣȊȈȧ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȍ, DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ ȗȘȐȉȍȋȈȍȚ Ȓ ȌȘțȋȖȔț ȖȉȘȈȏȕȖȔț ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȦ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȒȈȒ ȗțȓȤșȈȞȐȐ ȕȈșȐȓȐȧ. «ǪȖȑȕȈ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȍȚ ȌȖ ȐȏȊȍșȚȕȖȑ șȚȍȗȍȕȐ ȗțȓȤșȈȞȐȦ ȕȈșȐȓȐȧ, ȉȖȓȍȍ ȐȓȐ Ȕȍȕȍȍ ȉțȘȕțȦ, Ȉ, șȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȤȕȖ, ȉȖȓȍȍ ȐȓȐ Ȕȍȕȍȍ ȉȣșȚȘȖ ȘȈȏȘȍȠȈȦȡțȦ ȕȈȗȘȧȎȍȕȐȍ Ȑ ȐșȚȖȡȈȦȡțȦ șȐȓȣ. ǰȕȈȟȍ ȋȖȊȖȘȧ, ȊȖȑȕȈ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȐȓȐ Ȕȍȕȍȍ ȉȣșȚȘȖ ȗȘȐȝȖȌȐȚ Ȓ ȜȐȕȐȠț, ȕȖ ȚȍȟȍȕȐȍ ȍȍ, ȊȖ ȊșȧȒȖȔ șȓțȟȈȍ, ȉȣȊȈȍȚ ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ ȗȘȖȌȖȓȎȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȔ, Ȍȓȧ ȚȖȋȖ ȟȚȖȉȣ ȌȈȚȤ ȍȔț ȚȖ ȐȓȐ ȌȘțȋȖȍ ȕȈȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȍ, Ț.ȍ. șȖȝȘȈȕȐȚȤ ȗȖȌȟȐȕȍȕȐȍ ȍȍ ȘțȒȖȊȖȌȧȡȍȑ ȘȈȏțȔȕȖȑ ȊȖȓȍ. <…> ǵȖ Ȑȏ ȥȚȖȋȖ ȕȍ șȓȍȌțȍȚ, ȟȚȖ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȈȧ ȞȍȓȤ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȌȍșȗȖȚȐȟȍșȒȐȔ ȏȈȒȖȕȖȌȈȚȍȓȍȔ; ȍȑ ȗȘȐȝȖȌȐȚșȧ șȟȐȚȈȚȤșȧ ș ȗȘȐȘȖȌȖȑ șȘȍȌșȚȊȈ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȔ ȖȕȈ ȗȖȓȤȏțȍȚșȧ, Ȑ, șȖȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊȍȕȕȖ, șȈȔȖȑ ȟȈșȚȖ ȗȖȌȊȍȘȋȈȚȤșȧ ȒȖȘȍȕȕȖȔț ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȦ…»3

ǷȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘȈ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȞȍȓȤȦ ȓȦȉȖȑ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ, Ȑ ȗȖȗȣȚȒȐ ȖȉȢȧșȕȐȚȤ, ȒȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ ȌȈȕȕȈȧ ȚȍȖȘȐȧ ȘȈȉȖȚȈȍȚ, ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚ ȍȋȖ Ȓ ȚȘȍȚȤȍȔț ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȦ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȒȈȒ «țȌȐȊȐȚȍȓȤȕȖȑ ȚȘȖȐȞȍ (ȚȘȐȍȌȐȕșȚȊț)» (eine wunderliche Dreifaltigkeit): «…ȊȖȑȕȈ – ȕȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȗȖȌȓȐȕȕȣȑ ȝȈȔȍȓȍȖȕ, Ȋ ȒȈȎȌȖȔ ȒȖȕ-

1 Beyerchen, Clausewitz, Nonlinearity and the Unpredictability of War.

2 Clausewitz, On War, p. 87.

3 Ibid, p. 87.

118

ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȒȘȍȚȕȖȔ șȓțȟȈȍ ȕȍșȒȖȓȤȒȖ ȔȍȕȧȦȡȐȑ șȊȖȦ ȗȘȐȘȖȌț; ȗȖ șȊȖȍȔț ȖȉȡȍȔț ȖȉȓȐȒț (Ȋ ȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȐ ȋȖșȗȖȌșȚȊțȦȡȐȝ Ȋ ȕȍȑ ȚȍȕȌȍȕȞȐȑ) ȊȖȑȕȈ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȍȚ țȌȐȊȐȚȍȓȤȕțȦ ȚȘȖȐȞț (ȚȘȐȍȌȐȕșȚȊȖ), șȖșȚȈȊȓȍȕȕțȦ Ȑȏ ȕȈșȐȓȐȧ, ȒȈȒ ȗȍȘȊȖȕȈȟȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ șȊȖȍȋȖ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȈ, ȕȍȕȈȊȐșȚȐ Ȑ ȊȘȈȎȌȣ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ șȓȍȌțȍȚ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȚȤ ȒȈȒ șȓȍȗȖȑ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȕȣȑ ȐȕșȚȐȕȒȚ; Ȑȏ ȐȋȘȣ ȊȍȘȖȧȚȕȖșȚȍȑ Ȑ șȓțȟȈȧ, ȖȉȘȈȡȈȦȡȐȝ ȍȍ Ȋ ȈȘȍȕț șȊȖȉȖȌȕȖȑ ȌțȝȖȊȕȖȑ ȌȍȧȚȍȓȤȕȖșȚȐ; Ȑȏ ȗȖȌȟȐȕȍȕȕȖșȚȐ ȍȍ Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ ȖȘțȌȐȧ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȐ, ȉȓȈȋȖȌȈȘȧ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȔț ȖȕȈ ȗȖȌȟȐȕȧȍȚșȧ ȟȐșȚȖȔț ȘȈșșțȌȒț»1.

ǹȘȈȊȕȐȊȈȧ ȌȈȕȕȣȍ ȚȍȕȌȍȕȞȐȐ Ȑ ȗȣȚȈȧșȤ ȖȉȢȧșȕȐȚȤ Ȑȝ ȊȏȈȐȔȖșȊȧȏȤ Ȑ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȊȓȐȧȕȐȍ, DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ ȗȘȐȉȍȋȈȍȚ Ȓ ȔȍȚȈȜȖȘȍ: «ǵȈȠȈ ȏȈȌȈȟȈ ȗȖȥȚȖȔț ȏȈȒȓȦȟȈȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȒȍ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ ȗȖȌȌȍȘȎȐȊȈȓȈ ȉȣ ȉȈȓȈȕș ȔȍȎȌț ȥȚȐȔȐ ȚȘȍȔȧ ȚȍȕȌȍȕȞȐȧȔȐ, ȕȈȗȖȌȖȉȐȍ ȖȉȢȍȒȚȈ, ȗȖȌȊȍȠȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȔȍȎȌț ȚȘȍȔȧ ȔȈȋȕȐȚȈȔȐ»2. ǽȖȚȧ ȌȈȕȕȈȧ ȔȍȚȈȜȖȘȈ ȟȈȡȍ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȍȚșȧ Ȍȓȧ ȌȍȔȖȕșȚȘȈȞȐȐ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȐșȒȓȦȟȍȕȐȧ ȚȖȑ ȐȓȐ ȐȕȖȑ ȚȍȕȌȍȕȞȐȐ ȗȘȐ ȘȈșșȔȖȚȘȍȕȐȐ ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȖȕȈ ȔȖȎȍȚ șȓțȎȐȚȤ ȚȈȒȎȍ Ȑ Ȍȓȧ ȌȍȔȖȕșȚȘȈȞȐȐ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȝ ȈșȗȍȒȚȖȊ ȊȖȑȕȣ. ǭșȓȐ ȗȖȌȊȍșȐȚȤ ȠȈȘȐȒ Ȋ ȗȖȓȍ ȖȌȕȖȋȖ ȔȈȋȕȐȚȈ, ȚȖ ȍȋȖ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ ȉțȌȍȚ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȟȍȔ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȣȔ Ȑ ȓȍȋȒȖ ȗȘȖȋȕȖȏȐȘțȍȔȣȔ: ȠȈȘȐȒ ȟȍȘȍȏ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȖȍ ȊȘȍȔȧ ȗȘȐȌȍȚ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȍ ȘȈȊȕȖȊȍșȐȧ. ǺȘȈȍȒȚȖȘȐȧ ȠȈȘȐȒȈ Ȋ ȗȖȓȍ ȌȊțȝ ȔȈȋȕȐȚȖȊ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȌȖȊȖȓȤȕȖ ȓȍȋȒȖ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȈ Ȑ ȏȈȊȐșȐȚ ȖȚ ȕȈȟȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȧ ȠȈȘȐȒȈ Ȑ șȐȓȣ ȔȈȋȕȐȚȖȊ. ǶȌȕȈȒȖ șȖȊȍȘȠȍȕȕȖ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȚȤ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ ȠȈȘȐȒȈ Ȋ ȗȖȓȍ ȚȘȍȝ ȔȈȋȕȐȚȖȊ. ǭȋȖ ȚȘȈȍȒȚȖȘȐȧ ȉțȌȍȚ ȏȈȊȐșȍȚȤ ȖȚ ȕȈȟȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȧ ȠȈȘȐȒȈ, ȗȍȘȊȖȕȈȟȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȐȔȗțȓȤșȈ, ȔȖȡȕȖșȚȐ ȔȈȋȕȐȚȖȊ, Ȑȝ ȊȏȈȐȔȕȖȋȖ ȘȈșȗȖȓȖȎȍȕȐȧ Ȑ ȗȘ.3 ǴȖȡȤ ȌȈȕȕȖȑ ȔȍȚȈȜȖȘȣ ȏȈȒȓȦȟȈȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȚȖȔ, ȟȚȖ ȊȖȑȕȈ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȗȖȓȍ ȚȘȍȝ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊțȦȡȐȝ ȔȍȎȌț șȖȉȖȑ ȗȖȓȦșȖȊ, ȒȈȎȌȣȑ Ȑȏ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȖȌȕȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȖ ȊȓȐȧȍȚ Ȑ șȚȈȘȈȍȚșȧ ȕȈȗȘȈȊȐȚȤ ȍȍ Ȋ ȒȈȒȖȔ-ȚȖ ȖȌȕȖȔ ȕȈȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȐ, ȟȚȖ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚ Ȓ ȜȖȘȔȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȦ șȓȖȎȕȣȝ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ ȒȈȎȌȖȋȖ Ȑȏ ȗȖȓȦșȖȊ ȌȘțȋ ș ȌȘțȋȖȔ Ȑ ȗȘȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐ ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȖȔț ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȧ șȖȉȣȚȐȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ4.

ǼȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐ, DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȓ ȌȈȕȕȣȑ ȜȐȏȐȟȍșȒȐȑ ȜȍȕȖȔȍȕ Ȍȓȧ ȖȗȐșȈȕȐȧ ȧȊȓȍȕȐȑ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ Ȋ ȕȈșȚȖȧȡȍȍ ȊȘȍȔȧ ȐȏțȟȈȦȚșȧ Ȋ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȝ ȕȈțȒ, Ȑ ȌȍȔȖȕșȚȘȈȞȐȐ ȘȈȏȕȐȞȣ ȔȍȎȌț ȟȐșȚȖȑ ȚȍȖȘȐȍȑ, ȐșȝȖȌȧȡȍȑ Ȑȏ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ Ȑ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖșȚȐ ȚȖȟȕȣȝ ȐȏȔȍȘȍȕȐȑ, Ȑ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȣȔ ȔȐȘȖȔ, Ȋ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȔ ȊșȍȋȌȈ ȗȘȐșțȚșȚȊțȍȚ ȕȍȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȖșȚȤ Ȑ șȓțȟȈȑ. ǶȌȕȈȒȖ ȉțȌȍȚ ȕȍȗȘȈȊȐȓȤȕȖ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚȤ, ȟȚȖ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ ȗȘȍȌȊȖșȝȐȚȐȓ șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȍ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȐ. Ƕȕ ȖȗȐȘȈȓșȧ ȕȈ ȗȖȕȧȚȐȧ Ȑ ȚȍȘȔȐȕȖȓȖȋȐȦ ȚȍȘȔȖȌȐȕȈȔȐȒȐ Ȑ ȥȓȍȒȚȘȖȔȈȋȕȍȚȐȏȔȈ, Ȑ ȘȍȟȤ ȐȌȍȚ Ȗ ȗȘȈȒȚȐȒȍ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȗȍȘȍȌȖȊȣȝ Ȍȓȧ șȊȖȍȋȖ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȑ ȕȈțȒȐ Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ ȔȍȚȈȜȖȘȣ Ȍȓȧ ȖȉȢȧșȕȍȕȐȧ Ȑ ȗȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ ȐȏțȟȈȍȔȖȋȖ ȧȊȓȍȕȐȧ5.

1 Ibid, p. 89.

2 Ibid.

3 Beyerchen, Clausewitz, Nonlinearity and the Unpredictability of War. 4 Whitehead, Balancing Tyche: Nonlinearity and Joint Operations, p. 33. 5 Beyerchen, Clausewitz, Nonlinearity and the Unpredictability of War.

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ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, ȖȉȘȈȏ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊțȦȡȍȋȖ «țȌȐȊȐȚȍȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȚȘȐȍȌȐȕșȚȊȈ» ȥȚȖ ȉȖȋȈȚȈȧ ȔȍȚȈȜȖȘȈ. ǶȌȕȈȒȖ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȓȐ ȖȕȈ ȊșȍȋȖ ȓȐȠȤ ȓȐȚȍȘȈȚțȘȕȣȔ, șȚȐȓȐșȚȐȟȍșȒȐȔ ȗȘȐȍȔȖȔ, ȐȓȐ Ȏȍ ȘȍȟȤ ȐȌȍȚ Ȗ ȟȍȔ-ȚȖ ȜțȕȌȈȔȍȕȚȈȓȤȕȖȔ Ȑ ȊȈȎȕȖȔ Ȍȓȧ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȧ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȈ? ǸȈȑȔȖȕȌ ǨȘȖȕ șȟȐȚȈȍȚ, ȟȚȖ ȘȍȟȤ ȐȌȍȚ Ȗ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖȔ șȌȊȐȋȍ Ȑ ȗȍȘȍȝȖȌȍ ȖȚ ȌțȈȓȐȏȔȈ Ȓ ȚȘȖȑșȚȊȍȕȕȖșȚȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ ȊȗȖșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȐ șȜȖȘȔȐȘȖȊȈȓ ȒȈȒ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȈ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȝ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐșȚȖȊ1.

2.4.3 ǬȊȖȑșȚȊȍȕȕȖșȚȤ ȊȖȑȕȣ. ǹȖȋȓȈșȕȖ ȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȧȔ ȕȍȔȍȞȒȖȑ ȜȐȓȖșȖȜșȒȖȑ ȠȒȖȓȣ, ȊȖȑȕȈ ț DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȈ ȖȉȓȈȌȈȍȚ ȌȊȖȑșȚȊȍȕȕȖȑ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȖȑ, ȕȍ ȉȐȗȖȓȧȘȕȖȑ, ȚȖ ȍșȚȤ șȖșȚȖȧȡȍȑ Ȑȏ ȌȊțȝ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȗȖȓȖȎȕȖșȚȍȑ, ȕȖ ȐȔȍȕȕȖ ȌȊȖȑșȚȊȍȕȕȖȑ – ȖȉȢȍȒȚȐȊȕȖȑ Ȑ șțȉȢȍȒȚȐȊȕȖȑ2. ǶȉȢȍȒȚȐȊȕȈȧ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȈ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȊȒȓȦȟȈȍȚ ȚȈȒȐȍ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȣ, ȒȈȒ ȕȈșȐȓȐȍ, ȚȘȍȕȐȍ, șȓțȟȈȑ Ȑ ȕȍȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȖșȚȤ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȕȍȖȚȢȍȔȓȍȔȣȔȐ ȈȚȘȐȉțȚȈȔȐ Ȋșȍȝ ȊȖȑȕ ȉȍȏ ȐșȒȓȦȟȍȕȐȧ. ǪȖȑȕȣ ȔȖȋțȚ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȈȚȤșȧ ȗȖ ȔȈșȠȚȈȉț Ȑ ȉȣȚȤ ȓȖȒȈȓȤȕȣȔȐ, ȘȍȋȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȔȐ, ȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȣȔȐ; ȗȖ ȚȐȗț

– ȖȚ ȗȘȧȔȖȋȖ ȉȖȍȊȖȋȖ șȚȖȓȒȕȖȊȍȕȐȧ ȌȖ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȑ ȗȖ ȗȖȌȌȍȘȎȈȕȐȦ ȔȐȘȈ, ȕȖ Ȋ ȓȦȉȖȔ șȓțȟȈȍ ȗȍȘȍȟȐșȓȍȕȕȣȍ ȊȣȠȍ ȖȉȢȍȒȚȐȊȕȣȍ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȣ Ȋ ȚȖȑ ȓȐ ȐȕȖȑ șȚȍȗȍȕȐ ȗȘȐșțȡȐ ȓȦȉȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȍ. ǹțȉȢȍȒȚȐȊȕȈȧ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȈ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȊȒȓȦȟȈȍȚ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȣ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ țȕȐȒȈȓȤȕȣ Ȍȓȧ ȒȈȎȌȖȑ Ȑȏ ȊȖȑȕ. Dz ȕȐȔ ȔȖȋțȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȖȚȕȍșȍȕȣ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ șȐȓȣ, ȌȖȒȚȘȐȕȣ, ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȐȍ, ȔȍșȚȕȖșȚȤ Ȑ ȗȘ. ǶȉȢȍȒȚȐȊȕȣȍ Ȑ șțȉȢȍȒȚȐȊȕȣȍ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȣ ȔȖȎȕȖ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȚȤ ȒȈȒ ȊȕțȚȘȍȕȕȐȍ Ȑ ȊȕȍȠȕȐȍ ȈȚȘȐȉțȚȣ ȊȖȑȕȣ.

ǻ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȈ ȖȉȢȍȒȚȐȊȕȈȧ Ȑ șțȉȢȍȒȚȐȊȕȈȧ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȈ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȦȚșȧ șȊȧȏȈȕȕȣȔȐ Ȑ ȕȍȗȘȍȘȣȊȕȖ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊțȦȡȐȔȐ. ǵȖȊȣȍ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȐȧ ȐȓȐ ȌȖȒȚȘȐȕȣ ȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȕȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ, ȔȖȋțȚ țȊȍȓȐȟȐȊȈȚȤ ȐȓȐ țȔȍȕȤȠȈȚȤ șȚȍȗȍȕȤ ȕȈșȐȓȐȧ ȐȓȐ ȕȍȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȖșȚȐ, ȕȖ ȕȐȒȖȋȌȈ ȕȍ ȔȖȋțȚ ȗȖȓȕȖșȚȤȦ ȐșȒȓȦȟȐȚȤ Ȑȝ. ǨȕȈȓȖȋȐȟȕȣȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȔȖȚȐȊȣ ȐȓȐ ȞȍȓȐ ȔȖȋțȚ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȖȊȈȚȤ ȕȈ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ ȗȖ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȦ ȚȖȋȖ ȐȓȐ ȐȕȖȋȖ ȊȐȌȈ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȐȑ ȐȓȐ ȚȈȒȚȐȒȐ, ȟȚȖ, ȒȖȕȍȟȕȖ Ȏȍ, ȕȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȕȖșȐȚȤ ȈȉșȖȓȦȚȕȖȋȖ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘȈ. ǺȍȔ șȈȔȣȔ ȖȉȢȍȒȚȐȊȕȈȧ Ȑ șțȉȢȍȒȚȐȊȕȈȧ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȈ ȊȖȑȕȣ ț DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȈ – «ȕȍȟȚȖ ȉȖȓȤȠȍȍ, ȕȍȎȍȓȐ ȗȘȖșȚȖ ȝȈȔȍȓȍȖȕ». ǽȈȔȍȓȍȖȕ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȔȍȕȧȚȤ șȊȖȦ ȖȒȘȈșȒț, ȕȖ ȕȍ ȊȕțȚȘȍȕȕȐȍ ȖȘȋȈȕȣ, ȕȈ ȊȖȑȕȍ Ȏȍ Ȋșȍ ȊȏȈȐȔȖșȊȧȏȈȕȖ Ȑ ȗȖȌȊȐȎȕȖ Ȑ ȗȖȌȊȍȘȎȍȕȖ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȦ3.

ǴȍȚȈȜȖȘȈ ȚȘȐȍȌȐȕșȚȊȈ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ȊȣșȚȘȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȕȈ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȌȊȖȑșȚȊȍȕȕȖșȚȐ4, Ȑ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ, ȖȚȚȈȓȒȐȊȈȧșȤ ȖȚ ȌȐșȒțșșȐȐ Ȋ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ ȕȍȔȍȞȒȖȑ ȜȐȓȖșȖȜșȒȖȑ ȠȒȖȓȣ, ȗȘȐȝȖȌȐȚ Ȓ ȊȣȊȖȌț, ȟȚȖ ȊȖȑȕȈ ȕȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȗȖȕȧȚȈ ȒȈȒ «ȊȍȡȤ-

1 Aron, Clausewitz, p. 6.

2 Echevarria II, Globalization and the Nature of War, p. v. 3 Ibid, pp. 7-8.

4 Villacres, Edward J. and Christopher Bassford. “Reclaiming the Clausewitzian Trinity,” Parameters, U.S. Army War College Quarterly, Vol. 25, No. 3, Autumn 1995. pp. 9-19. 12 January 2011. http://www.clausewitz.com/readings/ Bassford/Trinity/TRININTR.htm.

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