Арзуманян Р., Сложное мышление и сеть парадигма нелинейности и среда безопасности 21 века

ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȌȘțȋȖȔ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȒȖȕȚȍȒșȚȖȔ, Ȑ ȉțȌțȡȍȍ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ șȒȖȘȍȍ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȖȔ Ȑ șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍȔ ȌȈȕȕȣȝ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ, ȕȍȎȍȓȐ șȈȔȐȝ ȚȍȕȌȍȕȞȐȑ. ǺȍȕȌȍȕȞȐȐ ȕȈȟȈȓȈ ȌȊȈȌȞȈȚȖȋȖ ȊȍȒȈ ȕȍ ȗȘȍȌȊȍȡȈȓȐ ǷȍȘȊțȦ ȔȐȘȖȊțȦ ȊȖȑȕț. Ǫ 70-ȍ ȋȖȌȣ ȗȘȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐ ȕȐ ȖȌȐȕ ȥȒșȗȍȘȚ ȕȍ ȉȣȓ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȚȤ ȒȘțȠȍȕȐȍ ǹǹǹǸ Ȋ ȒȖȕȞȍ 80-ȝ. ȅȚȖ ȖȏȕȈȟȈȍȚ, ȟȚȖ ȈȌȍȒȊȈȚȕȖȍ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȉțȌțȡȍȋȖ ȚȘȍȉțȍȚ ȏȕȈȕȐȧ Ȑ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȧ ȒȈȒ ȚȍȒțȡȐȝ ȚȍȕȌȍȕȞȐȑ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȗȖșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȑ Ȑȝ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ, ȟȚȖ, ȉȍȏțșȓȖȊȕȖ, ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȐșȒțșșȚȊȖȔ, Ȉ ȕȍ ȕȈțȒȖȑ, Ȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐșȚ Ȋ șȊȖȍȑ ȘȈȉȖȚȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȗȖȓȈȋȈȚȤșȧ ȕȈ ȐȕȚțȐȞȐȦ Ȑ ȖȗȣȚ – șȊȖȑ Ȑ ȗȘȍȌȣȌțȡȐȝ ȗȖȒȖȓȍȕȐȑ. ǻ șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȝ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐșȚȖȊ ȕȍȚ ȕȐȒȈȒȐȝ ȖșȕȖȊȈȕȐȑ șȟȐȚȈȚȤ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȚȍȖȘȍȚȐȒȖȊ ȗȘȖȠȓȣȝ ȊȍȒȖȊ Ȕȍȕȍȍ ȖȗȣȚȕȣȔȐ Ȑ ȐșȒțȠȍȕȕȣȔȐ1.

ǯȈȕȐȔȈȧșȤ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȔȐ ȗȘȖȋȕȖȏȈȔȐ, șȓȍȌțȍȚ ȖșȖȏȕȈȊȈȚȤ, ȟȚȖ ȉțȌțȡȍȍ ȊȔȍșȚȍșȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȖșȚȤȦ ȕȍșȍȚș șȖȉȖȑȥȓȍȔȍȕȚșȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȑȕȍȖȎȐȌȈȕȕȖșȚȐ. ǿȚȖȉȣ șȗȘȈȊȐȚȤșȧ ȒȈȒ ș șȈȔȐȔȐ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȔ ȕȍȖȎȐȌȈȕȕȖșȚȐ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȍȋȖ ȗȖșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȧȔȐ, ȘțȒȖȊȖȌȧȡȐȔ ȗȘȐȕȞȐȗȖȔ Ȑ ȊȈȎȕȍȑȠȐȔ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȖȔ ȗșȐȝȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȋȖȚȖȊȕȖșȚȐ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ șȚȈȚȤ ȔȐȕȐȔȈȓȤȕȣȍ șȖȎȈȓȍȕȐȧ ȗȖ ȗȖȊȖȌț ȕȍțȋȈȌȈȕȕȣȝ Ȑ ȕȍȗȘȖșȟȐȚȈȕȕȣȝ ȚȍȕȌȍȕȞȐȑ. ǵȈȌȖ șȗȖȒȖȑȕȖ ȖȚȕȖșȐȚȤșȧ Ȓ ȚȖȔț, ȟȚȖ ȕȍȗȖȏȕȈȊȈȍȔȖȍȌȍȑșȚȊȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ ȕȍȗȖȏȕȈȊȈȍȔȖ, ȈȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖȍ – ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ2. «ǺȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȉțȌțȡȍȍ ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȖ, șȓȍȌțȍȚ ȐȏȉȍȋȈȚȤ ȜȘȈȏȣ “ȖȉȖȏȘȐȔȖȍ ȉțȌțȡȍȍ”. Ǵȣ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȚȤ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȐșȚȖȟȕȐȒȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȔ ȔȖȎȕȖ ȌȖȊȍȘȧȚȤ. Ǫ ȟȈșȚȕȖșȚȐ, Ȕȣ ȗȓȈȕȐȘțȍȔ ȌȍȑșȚȊȖȊȈȚȤ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐ Ȋ ȕȍȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȖȔ ȉțȌțȡȍȔ, ȖȗȐȘȈȧșȤ ȕȈ ȚȘȐ ȐșȚȖȟȕȐȒȈ ȗȘȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ șȖȊȍȚȖȊ: ȐșȚȖȘȐȟȍșȒȐȑ ȖȗȣȚ, ȏȖȓȖȚȖȍ ȗȘȈȊȐȓȖ ȉȓȈȋȖȘȈȏțȔȐȧ (ȔȣȕȍȌȖȓȎȕȣȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȚȤȕȈȌȍȎȌȈȔțȗȘȈȊȓȧȚȤȗȓȈȕȈȔȐ) ȐȏȌȘȈȊȣȑșȔȣșȓ»3.

ǵȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȖșȚȤ ȉțȌțȡȍȋȖ ȌȍȓȈȍȚ ȒȘȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐ ȊȈȎȕȖȑ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȒț ȈȓȤȚȍȘȕȈȚȐȊȕȣȝ șȞȍȕȈȘȐȍȊ ȉțȌțȡȍȋȖ Ȑ șȖȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊțȦȡȐȝ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȑ. Ǫ 1914 ȋȖȌț ǫȍȘȔȈȕȐȧ ȋȖȚȖȊȐȓȈșȤ Ȓ șȒȖȘȖȚȍȟȕȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȍ, ȖșȕȖȊȣȊȈȦȡȍȑșȧ ȕȈ ȍȍ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȧȝ ȗȘȖȊȖȌȐȚȤ ȉȣșȚȘȣȍ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȐ, Ȑ ȉȣȓȈ șȖȊȍȘȠȍȕȕȖ ȕȍ ȋȖȚȖȊȈ Ȓ ȗȖȏȐȞȐȖȕȕȖȑ, ȖȒȖȗȕȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȍ. Ǫ 1941-42 ȋȖȌȈȝ ȕȈȞȐșȚșȒȈȧ ǫȍȘȔȈȕȐȧ ȋȖȚȖȊȐȓȈșȤ Ȑ șȚȈȘȈȓȈșȤ ȘȍȈȓȐȏȖȊȈȚȤ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȦ ȉȓȐȞȒȘȐȋȈ, ȖȌȕȈȒȖ Ȋ ȖȉȖȐȝ șȓțȟȈȧȝ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȘȍȈȓȐȏțȍȔȣȍ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȓȐșȤ ȕȍȘȍȈȓȐȏțȍȔȣȔȐ, ȋȍȘȔȈȕșȒȖȍ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȍ ȒȖȔȈȕȌȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȕȍ ȐȔȍȓȖ ȈȓȤȚȍȘȕȈȚȐȊȕȖȋȖ ȊȐȌȍȕȐȧ ȊȖȑȕȣ. ǩȓȍșȚȧȡȈȧ ȚȈȒȚȐȒȈ ȋȍȘȔȈȕșȒȐȝ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȕȣȝșȐȓȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȓȈșȤȕȍȊșȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐȗȘȖȚȐȊȖșȚȖȧȚȤ ȊȖȑȕȍȕȈȐșȚȖȡȍȕȐȍ4.

ǹȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȋȖȘȐȏȖȕȚȣ. ǯȈȕȐȔȈȧșȤ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȔ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍȔ, ȊȈȎȕȖ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȚȤ, ȟȚȖ șțȡȍșȚȊțȦȚ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȣȍ ȚȐȗȣ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȋȖȘȐȏȖȕȚȖȊ, ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȦȡȐȍ, ȕȈșȒȖȓȤȒȖ ȌȈȓȍȒȖ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐșȚ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȗȘȖȋȕȖȏȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȘȈȏȊȐ-

1 Ibid, p. 16.

2 Gray, Transformation and Strategy Surprise, p. 28.

3 Gray, Why Strategy is Difficult, p. 86.

4 Gray, How Has War Changed Since the End of the Cold War, p. 15.

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ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȚȐȍ șȖȉȣȚȐȑ. ǫȖȘȐȏȖȕȚȣ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȕȐȧ ȔȖȋțȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȧșȕȣȔȐ, țșȓȖȎȕȍȕȕȣȔȐ Ȑ șȓȖȎȕȣȔȐ1.

Ǭȓȧ ȋȖȚȖȊȧȡȍȋȖșȧ Ȓ șȘȈȎȍȕȐȦ ȋȍȕȍȘȈȓȈ 18 ȊȍȒȈ ȌȍȕȤ, ȔȍșȚȕȖșȚȤ Ȑ ȖȉȡȈȧ ȌȐșȗȖȏȐȞȐȧ ȊȖȑșȒ (șȊȖȐȝ Ȑ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ) ȉȣȓȐ ȧșȕȣ. ǺȈȒȎȍ ȉȣȓ ȧșȍȕ ȗȓȈȕ ȉțȌțȡȍȋȖ șȘȈȎȍȕȐȧ: ȒȖȋȌȈ, Ȋ ȒȈȒȖȑ ȗȖșȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȤȕȖșȚȐ ȉțȌțȚ ȌȊȐȋȈȚȤșȧ ȍȋȖ ȊȖȑșȒȈ Ȑ ȒȈȒȐȔ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȖȚȊȍȚ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ. ǽȖȚȧ Ȗȕ ȕȍ ȔȖȋ ȖȌȕȖȏȕȈȟȕȖ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȚȤ ȐșȝȖȌ șȘȈȎȍȕȐȧ, ȚȍȔ ȕȍ Ȕȍȕȍȍ ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȖ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣȝ șȞȍȕȈȘȐȍȊ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȧ șȐȚțȈȞȐȐ ȉȣȓȖ ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ ȕȍȉȖȓȤȠȐȔ Ȑ ȗȘȖȋȕȖȏȐȘțȍȔȣȔ. ǫȍȕȍȘȈȓ ȏȕȈȓ ȚȖȟȕțȦ ȌȈȚț ȖȒȖȕȟȈȕȐȧ șȘȈȎȍȕȐȧ – ȏȈȊȚȘȈ ȉȐȚȊȈ ȉțȌȍȚ ȐȓȐ ȊȣȐȋȘȈȕȈ ȐȓȐ ȗȘȖȐȋȘȈȕȈ. Ƕȕ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȏȕȈȓ, ȟȚȖ ȕȍ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȚȤ, ȒȈȒȐȍ Ȑȏ șȖȉȣȚȐȑ ȖȒȈȎțȚ ȘȍȠȈȦȡȍȍ ȊȓȐȧȕȐȍ ȕȈ ȗȖȉȍȌț. ǫȍȕȍȘȈȓ ȐȔȍȓ ȧșȕȣȍ ȋȖȘȐȏȖȕȚȣ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȕȐȧ.

ǵȍșȒȖȓȤȒȖ ȌȘțȋȖȑ ȉȣȓȈ șȐȚțȈȞȐȧ Ȍȓȧ ȖȚȘȧȌȈ ȒȈȊȈȓȍȘȐșȚȖȊ ǹȀǨ Ȋ 19 ȊȍȒȍ, ȗȘȖȌȊȐȋȈȦȡȍȋȖșȧ ȕȈ ǬȐȒȐȑ ǯȈȗȈȌ. DzȖȔȈȕȌȐȘ ȖȚȘȧȌȈ ȕȍ ȏȕȈȓ ȔȍșȚȕȖșȚȤ, Ȑ ȖȚȘȧȌ ȔȖȋ ȕȈȚȒȕțȚȤșȧ ȕȈ ȉȖȓȤȠțȦ ȘȍȒț ȐȓȐ ȕȍȗȘȖȝȖȌȐȔȣȑ ȒȈȕȤȖȕ. Ƕȕ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȕȍ ȏȕȈȓ, ȋȌȍ ȖȚȘȧȌ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȊșȚȘȍȚȐȚȤ ȐȕȌȍȑșȒȐȍ ȗȓȍȔȍȕȈ, ș ȒȖȚȖȘȣȔȐ ȗȘȐȌȍȚșȧ ȕȍȔȍȌȓȍȕȕȖ ȊșȚțȗȐȚȤ Ȋ ȉȖȑ. Ǫșȍ, ȟȚȖ ȉȣȓȖ ȐȏȊȍșȚȕȖ ȒȖȔȈȕȌȐȘț ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ ȟȍȚȒȖ, ȥȚȖ Ȗȉȡȍȍ ȕȈȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȍ ȌȊȐȎȍȕȐȧ ȖȚȘȧȌȈ, ȖȌȕȈȒȖ Ȑȏ-ȏȈ ȉȖȓȤȠȖȋȖ ȟȐșȓȈ ȕȍȒȖȕȚȘȖȓȐȘțȍȔȣȝ Ȑ ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȣȝ ȜȈȒȚȖȘȖȊ Ȗȕ ȕȍ ȉȣȓ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȚȤ Ȑ ȗȘȍȌțȋȈȌȈȚȤ șȖȉȣȚȐȧ ȏȈȊȚȘȈȠȕȍȋȖ Ȍȕȧ. DzȈȒ șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍ, ȒȖȔȈȕȌȐȘ ȖȚȘȧȌȈ ȌȖȓȎȍȕ ȉȣȓ ȊșȍȋȌȈ ȕȈȝȖȌȐȚȤșȧ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȗȖȓȕȖȑ ȉȖȍȋȖȚȖȊȕȖșȚȐ Ȑ ȖȚȗȘȈȊȓȧȚȤ ȊȗȍȘȍȌ ȘȈȏȊȍȌȟȐȒȖȊ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȘȈșȠȐȘȧȓȐ ȉȣ ȍȋȖ șȖȉșȚȊȍȕȕȣȑ ȋȖȘȐȏȖȕȚ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȕȐȧ. ȅȚȖ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȓȖ ȍȔț ȉȣȚȤ țȊȍȘȍȕȕȣȔ, ȟȚȖ Ȗȕ țșȗȍȍȚ ȘȈșȗȖȏȕȈȚȤ ȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȤ, ȗȖȌȋȖȚȖȊȐȚȤșȧ Ȓ ȕȍȑ Ȑ, ȗȘȐ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖșȚȐ, ȕȍȔȍȌȓȍȕȕȖ ȊșȚțȗȐȚȤ Ȋ ȉȖȑ. DzȘȖȔȍ ȚȖȋȖ, ȒȖȔȈȕȌȐȘ ȐȔȍȓ ȖȚȕȖșȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ ȕȍȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȣȍ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȍ ȋȖȘȐȏȖȕȚȣ, Ȑ ȍȋȖ ȗȖȝȖȌ ȔȖȋ ȗȘȖȌȖȓȎȈȚȤșȧ ȌȕȐ ȐȓȐ ȕȍȌȍȓȐ. Ƕȕ ȏȕȈȓ, ȒȈȒȐȍ șȖȉȣȚȐȧ ȔȖȋțȚ ȐȔȍȚȤ ȔȍșȚȖ, ș ȒȈȒȐȔȐ ȗȘȍȗȧȚșȚȊȐȧȔȐ Ȑ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȖȔ ȔȖȎȍȚ șȚȖȓȒȕțȚȤșȧ ȖȚȘȧȌ, ȕȖ ȉȖȓȤȠȖȍ ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȖ ȕȍȐȏȊȍșȚȕȣȝ ȜȈȒȚȖȘȖȊ, Ȑȝ ȒȖȔȉȐȕȈȞȐȧ Ȑ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȊȓȐȧȕȐȍ ȌȍȓȈȓȐ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣȔ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȕȐȍ șȘȖȒȖȊ ȏȈȊȍȘȠȍȕȐȧ ȗȖȝȖȌȈ. DzȖȔȈȕȌȐȘ ȒȈȊȈȓȍȘȐȑșȒȖȋȖ ȖȚȘȧȌȈ ȐȔȍȓ țșȓȖȎȕȍȕȕȣȍ ȋȖȘȐȏȖȕȚȣ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȕȐȧ.

ǰ, ȕȈȒȖȕȍȞ, șȖȊȍȘȠȍȕȕȖ ȐȕȣȔ ȉȣȓȖ ȗȖȓȖȎȍȕȐȍ ȉȖșȕȐȑșȒȖȋȖ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȈ Ȋ 1995 ȋȖȌț, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȉȣȓȖ ȖȟȍȕȤ ȚȘțȌȕȖ ȗȖȕȧȚȤ, ȒȚȖ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȌȘțȋȖȔ, Ȉ ȒȚȖ ȊȘȈȋȖȔ. ǪȕȈȟȈȓȍ ǩȖșȕȐȧ ȊȖȍȊȈȓȈ ș ȝȖȘȊȈȚȈȔȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȏȈȚȍȔ șȚȈȓȐ șȖȦȏȕȐȒȈȔȐ. ǿȚȖ Ȗȕ ȔȖȋ ȖȎȐȌȈȚȤ ȖȚ șȐȓ ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȐ ǶǶǵ Ȑ ǵǨǺǶ, ȏȈȗȈȌȕȣȝ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȖȊ, ǩȍȓȋȘȈȌȈ, ǯȈȋȘȍȉȈ, ǴȖșȒȊȣ? ǰ ȌȈȎȍ ȚȖȋȌȈ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȍȔț ȒȈȏȈȓȖșȤ, ȟȚȖ Ȗȕ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȍȚ, ȟȚȖ ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȐȚ, Ȗȕ ȕȐȟȍȋȖ ȕȍ ȏȕȈȓ, ȚȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȕȈȏȈȊȚȘȈ șȐȚțȈȞȐȧ ȒȈȘȌȐȕȈȓȤȕȖ ȔȍȕȧȓȈșȤ. ǩȖșȕȐȑșȒȐȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒ ȐȔȍȓ ȕȍȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȣȑ ȋȖȘȐȏȖȕȚ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ Ȑ ȕȍ ȉȣȓ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ

1 Lane, D. and R. Maxfield. “Strategy under Complexity: Fostering Generative Relationships,” Long Range Planning, Vol. 29, No. 2, 1996, pp. 215-231. 12 January 2011. http://www.plexusinstitute.org/edgeware/archive/think/main_filing9.html.

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ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȕȈȏȊȈȚȤ ȐȔȍȕȈ Ȋșȍȝ ȈȒȚȖȘȖȊ Ȑ șȖȉȣȚȐȑ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȔȖȋȓȐ ȗȖȊȓȐȧȚȤ ȕȈ ȐșȝȖȌ ȌȘȈȔȣ, ȟȈșȚȤȦ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ ȧȊȓȧȓșȧ ȍȋȖ ȕȈȘȖȌ. Ǫ ȖȚȓȐȟȐȍ ȖȚ ȒȖȔȈȕȌȐȘȈ ȒȈȊȈȓȍȘȐȑșȒȖȋȖ ȖȚȘȧȌȈ, ȏȈȌȈȟȈ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȋȖ ȏȈȒȓȦȟȈȓȈșȤ Ȋ ȗȘȖȌȊȐȎȍȕȐȐ ȗȖ ȜȐȒșȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȖȑ ȔȍșȚȕȖșȚȐ, șȖșȚȖȧȡȍȑ Ȑȏ ȏȕȈȒȖȔȣȝ, ȕȖ ȗȖȒȈ ȟȚȖ ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȣȝ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȖȊ, șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȑ ȓȈȕȌȠȈȜȚ ȉȖșȕȐȑșȒȖȋȖ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȈ ȉȣȓ ȥȓȈșȚȐȟȕȣȔ Ȑ ȕȍȗȘȍȘȣȊȕȖ ȌȍȜȖȘȔȐȘȖȊȈȓșȧ Ȋ ȖȚȊȍȚ ȕȈ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȖșțȡȍșȚȊȓȧȓ Ȗȕ Ȑ ȌȘțȋȐȍ țȟȈșȚȕȐȒȐ șȖȉȣȚȐȑ. ǭȋȖ ȞȍȓȤ ȊșȍȋȌȈ ȕȈȝȖȌȐȓȈșȤ ȏȈ ȗȘȍȌȍȓȖȔ ȋȖȘȐȏȖȕȚȈ ȗȘȍȌȊȐȌȍȕȐȧ, Ȑ șȊȧȏȤ ȔȍȎȌț ȚȍȔ, ȟȚȖ Ȗȕ ȝȖȟȍȚ, Ȑ ȚȍȔ, ȒțȌȈ Ȗȕ ȐȌȍȚ, ȊșȍȋȌȈ ȉȣȓȈ ȚȖȕȒȖȑ Ȑ ȕȍȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȖȑ. ǫȖȘȐȏȖȕȚ ȗȘȍȌȊȐȌȍȕȐȧ ȉȖșȕȐȑșȒȖȋȖ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȈ ȉȣȓ șȓȖȎȕȣȔ.

ǭșȓȐ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȋȖȘȐȏȖȕȚȣ ȗȘȍȌȊȐȌȍȕȐȧ ȧșȕȣ, ȚȖ ȔȖȋțȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȣ ȝȖȘȖȠȖ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȈȕȕȣȍ ȔȈȚȍȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȔȍȚȖȌȣ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ ȗȘȐȕȧȚȐȧ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȑ Ȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ. Ǫ țșȓȖȊȐȧȝ țșȓȖȎȕȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȋȖȘȐȏȖȕȚȈ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȍ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȗȘȍȊȘȈȡȈȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȗȘȖȞȍșș ȕȍȗȘȍȘȣȊȕȖȋȖ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȕȐȧ, ȥȒșȗȍȘȐȔȍȕȚȈ Ȑ ȉȣșȚȘȖȑ ȈȌȈȗȚȈȞȐȐ. ǷȘȐ șȓȖȎȕȣȝ ȋȖȘȐȏȖȕȚȈȝ ȗȘȍȌȊȐȌȍȕȐȧ șȈȔȈ șȚȘțȒȚțȘȈ ȔȐȘȈ, Ȋ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȔ ȖȗȍȘȐȘțȦȚ ȈȒȚȖȘȣ, ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ȗȖȌȊȍȘȎȍȕȕȖȑ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧȔ, Ȑ ȟȚȖ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȖȏȕȈȟȈȚȤ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ, ȒȖȋȌȈ «ȚȊȖȑ ȔȐȘ ȈȒȚȐȊȕȖ șȚȘȖȐȚșȧ, Țȣ ȧȊȓȧȍȠȤșȧ ȟȈșȚȤȦ șȚȘȖȐȚȍȓȤȕȖȑ ȉȘȐȋȈȌȣ, Ȑ ȕȍȚ ȕȐȒȈȒȖȋȖ ȗȘȖȍȒȚȈ»1. ǵȈ șȍȋȖȌȕȧȠȕȐȑ ȌȍȕȤ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȈȧ ȚȍȖȘȐȧ ȕȍ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȗȘȍȌȓȖȎȐȚȤ ȈȌȍȒȊȈȚȕȣȍ ȔȍȚȖȌȣ Ȍȓȧ ȖȗȍȘȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ șȖ șȓȖȎȕȣȔȐ ȋȖȘȐȏȖȕȚȈȔȐ Ȑ ȖȚșȣȓȈȍȚ Ȓ ȋȍȕȐȦ, ȐȕȚțȐȞȐȐ Ȑ ȖȗȣȚț șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐșȚȈ, ȒȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȍȋȖ Ȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȈ.

4. DzȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȧ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȕȍȖȎȐȌȈȕȕȖșȚȐ

ǹȚȘȍȔȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ ȔȍȕȧȦȡȈȧșȧ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȈȧ șȘȍȌȈ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚ Ȓ ȚȖȔț, ȟȚȖ ȕȈȐȉȖȓȍȍ ȈȒȚțȈȓȤȕȖȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȍȑ ȕȈȠȐȝ Ȍȕȍȑ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȈȧ ȕȍȖȎȐȌȈȕȕȖșȚȤ. Dz șȖȎȈȓȍȕȐȦ, ȊȕȍȏȈȗȕȖșȚȤ ȗȘȐȕȈȌȓȍȎȐȚ Ȓ ȚȖȔț Ȏȍ ȚȐȗț ȗȖȕȧȚȐȑ, ȟȚȖ Ȑ ȈșȐȔȔȍȚȘȐȧ, ȕȍȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȖșȚȤ, ȚȘȍȕȐȍ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȔȐ ȖȟȍȕȤ șȓȖȎȕȖ ȖȗȍȘȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ Ȋȕȍ țȏȒȐȝ ȗȘȍȌȍȓȖȊ ȚȈȒȚȐȒȐ2. ǵȈ ȗȍȘȊȣȑ ȊȏȋȓȧȌ, ȖȟȍȊȐȌȕȣȑ șȗȖșȖȉ ȉȖȘȤȉȣ șȖ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȕȍȖȎȐȌȈȕȕȖșȚȤȦ ȏȈȒȓȦȟȈȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȗȍȘȍșȔȖȚȘȍ ȜțȕȒȞȐȐ Ȑ ȘȖȓȐ ȘȈȏȊȍȌȒȐ. ǶȌȕȈȒȖ ȗȖȗȣȚȒȐ ȉȦȘȖȒȘȈȚȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȈ, șȊȧȏȈȕȕȣȍ ș șȖȏȌȈȕȐȍȔ ȕȖȊȣȝ ȘȈȏȊȍȌȣȊȈȚȍȓȤȕȣȝ ȖȘȋȈȕȖȊ ȐȓȐ ȘȍȜȖȘȔȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍȔ șțȡȍșȚȊțȦȡȐȝ, ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȔȈȘȋȐȕȈȓȤȕȣȔȐ Ȑ ȕȍ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȚ șȗȘȈȊȐȚȤșȧ șȖ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȑ Ȑ ȚȍȔ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȕȍȖȎȐȌȈȕȕȖșȚȤȦ3.

ǶȟȍȊȐȌȕȖ, ȟȚȖ ȖșȕȖȊȕȖȑ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȖȑ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȕȍ șȚȖȓȤȒȖ șȈȔȈ ȕȍȖȎȐȌȈȕȕȖșȚȤ, ȧȊȓȧȦȡȈȧșȧ ȕȍȐȏȉȍȎȕȣȔ șȗțȚȕȐȒȖȔ ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȖșȚȐ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȔȐȘȈ, șȒȖȓȤȒȖ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȑ ȥȜȜȍȒȚ ȕȍȖȎȐȌȈȕȕȖșȚȐ, Ȑ ȊȖȗȘȖș ȏȈȒȓȦȟȈȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȚȖȔ,

1 Ibid, p. 91.

2 Watts, Clausewitzian Friction and Future War.

3 Gray, Transformation and Strategy Surprise, p. 6.

203

ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȒȈȒȖȊȣ ȗȖșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȧ ȕȍȖȎȐȌȈȕȕȖșȚȐ. ǬȎȍȑȔș ǪȐȘȞ (James Wirtz) ȖȉȢȧșȕȧȍȚ: «ǪȕȍȏȈȗȕȖșȚȤ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȖ ȗȖȌȈȊȓȧȍȚ ȌȐȈȓȍȒȚȐȟȍșȒțȦ ȗȘȐȘȖȌț ȊȖȑȕȣ (ȐȓȐ ȒȈȒȖȋȖȓȐȉȖ ȌȘțȋȖȋȖ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȉȖȘșȚȊȈ) ȟȍȘȍȏ ȐșȒȓȦȟȍȕȐȍ ȈȒȚȐȊȕȖȋȖ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ ș ȗȖȓȧ ȉȖȧ. ǪȕȍȏȈȗȕȖșȚȤ ȗȘȍȊȘȈȡȈȍȚ ȊȖȑȕț Ȋ șȚȖȝȈșȚȐȟȍșȒȖȍ țȟȍȕȐȍ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȊȍȘȖȧȚȕȖșȚȤ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȖȋȖ șȖȉȣȚȐȧ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȈ ș ȚȖȑ ȐȓȐ ȐȕȖȑ șȚȍȗȍȕȤȦ ȚȖȟȕȖșȚȐ, ȐȓȐ, ȋȖȘȈȏȌȖ ȘȍȎȍ, ȗȖșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍ șȖȉȣȚȐȧ ȕȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȗȘȖșȟȐȚȈȕȖ ȏȈȘȈȕȍȍ, ȕȖ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȍȚșȧ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȖȌȕȖȑ șȚȖȘȖȕȖȑ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȈ»1. ǶȚ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȈ ȌȖ ȈȌȔȐȘȈȓȈ ǻȈȑȓȐ Ȋșȍ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ ȚȍȖȘȍȚȐȒȐ ȉȣȓȐ ȍȌȐȕȣ Ȋ ȚȖȔ, ȟȚȖ Ȍȓȧ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȈ ȕȍȖȎȐȌȈȕȕȖșȚȐ ȒȘȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐ ȊȈȎȕȣȔ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȖȔ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ șȖȝȘȈȕȍȕȐȍ ȒȖȕȚȘȖȓȧ ȕȈȌ șȐȚțȈȞȐȍȑ. «ǫȓȈȊȕȖȑ ȞȍȓȤȦ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐșȚȈ Ȋ ȗȘȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȐ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ, Ȋ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȖȑ șȚȍȗȍȕȐ, țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȍ Ȋ șȖȉșȚȊȍȕȕȣȝ Ȟȍȓȧȝ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȖȔ; ȥȚȖ ȌȖșȚȐȋȈȍȚșȧ ȟȍȘȍȏ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȍ ȗȈȚȚȍȘȕȖȔ ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȟȚȖ, Ȋ șȊȖȦ ȖȟȍȘȍȌȤ, ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȊȈȍȚșȧ ȔȈȕȐȗțȓȧȞȐȍȑ ȞȍȕȚȘȖȔ ȋȘȈȊȐȚȈȞȐȐ ȊȖȑȕȣȌȓȧȗȖȓțȟȍȕȐȧ șȖȉșȚȊȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȗȘȍȐȔțȡȍșȚȊȈ ȐȊțȡȍȘȉ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒț»2.

ǵȍȖȎȐȌȈȕȕȈȧ ȈȚȈȒȈ ȗȘȍșȓȍȌțȍȚ ȞȍȓȤ ȗȖȌȈȊȐȚȤ ȌțȥȓȤȕțȦ ȗȘȐȘȖȌț ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȐșȒȓȦȟȐȚȤ ȍȍ ȌȐȈȓȍȒȚȐȒț. Ǫ ȐȌȍȈȓȍ ȖȕȈ ȗȖȓȕȖșȚȤȦ ȗȖȌȈȊȓȧȍȚ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ, ȗȘȍȊȘȈȡȈȧ ȍȋȖ Ȋ ȉȍșȗȖȔȖȡȕțȦ ȎȍȘȚȊț, ȕȍșȗȖșȖȉȕțȦ ȊȣȑȚȐ Ȑȏ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȧ, Ȋ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȔ ȖȕȈ ȖȒȈȏȈȓȈșȤ, ȊȖșșȚȈȕȖȊȐȊȠȐșȤ ȗȖșȓȍ ȕȈȕȍșȍȕȕȖȋȖ țȌȈȘȈ. ǷȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒ Ȋșȍ ȊȘȍȔȧ ȖȗȈȏȌȣȊȈȍȚ Ȑ ȊȣȕțȎȌȍȕ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȘȍȈȋȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȕȈ ȈȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȤ ȕȈȗȈȌȈȦȡȍȑ șȚȖȘȖȕȣ. Ǫșȍ ȍȋȖ ȏȈȔȣșȓȣ Ȑ ȗȓȈȕȣ ȉȍȏȕȈȌȍȎȕȖ ȖȗȈȏȌȣȊȈȦȚ Ȑ ȕȍ șȖȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊțȦȚ ȕȖȊȖȑ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȖșȚȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ ȜȖȘȔȐȘțȍȚșȧ ȕȈȗȈȌȈȦȡȍȑ șȚȖȘȖȕȖȑ. ǼȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐ, ȚȈ Ȏȍ ȐȌȍȧ ȓȍȎȐȚ Ȋ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȐ ȞȐȒȓȈ «ȕȈȉȓȦȌȍȕȐȍ, ȖȘȐȍȕȚȈȞȐȧ, ȘȍȠȍȕȐȍ,

ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȍ» (ǵǶǸǬ-ȞȐȒȓȈ) (observation, orientation, decision, action (OODA)) ǬȎȖ-

ȕȈ ǩȖȑȌȈ (John Boyd)3, ȖȗȐșȈȕȐȍ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȋȖ ȌȈȍȚșȧ Ȋ ǷȘȐȓȖȎȍȕȐȐ 1. ǩȖȑȌ, ȘȈȏȘȈȉȈȚȣȊȈȧ șȊȖȦ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȦ, ȖȗȐȘȈȓșȧ ȕȈ ȚȈȒȚȐȒț ȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ ȊȖȏȌțȠȕȣȝ ȉȖȍȊ, ȒȖȚȖȘțȦ Ȗȕ ȖȉȖȉȡȐȓ ȕȈ șȜȍȘț șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ Ȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȐ.

ǵȍȖȎȐȌȈȕȕȖșȚȤ ȗȖ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȦ ȒȖȕȚȘȖȓȐȘțȍȚșȧ ȈȚȈȒțȦȡȐȔ, Ȑ ȐȔȍȕȕȖ Ȗȕ ȊȓȈȌȍȍȚ ȐȕȐȞȐȈȚȐȊȖȑ, ȖȌȕȈȒȖ ȗȖșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȧ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȈ ȕȍȖȎȐȌȈȕȕȖșȚȐ ȔȖȋțȚ ȒȖȕȚȘȖȓȐȘȖȊȈȚȤșȧ Ȑ ȈȚȈȒțȍȔȖȑ șȚȖȘȖȕȖȑ. ǪȖȍȕȕȈȧ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȧ Ȋ ǰȘȈȒȍ Ȋ 2003 ȋȖȌț

1 Wirtz, James. “Theory of Surprise,” in Richard K. Betts and Thomas G. Mahnken (eds.). Paradoxes of Intelligence: Essays in Honor of Michael I. Handel. London: Frank Cass, 2003, p. 103.

2 Wylie, Military Strategy, pp. 77-78.

3 ǩȖȑȌ ȕȐȒȖȋȌȈ ȕȍ ȗțȉȓȐȒȖȊȈȓ șȊȖȦ ȚȍȖȘȐȦ ǵǶǸǬ-ȞȐȒȓȈ. ǭȍ ȔȖȎȕȖ ȕȈȑȚȐ Ȋ ȕȍȖȗțȉȓȐȒȖȊȈȕȕȖȑ ȘȈȉȖȚȍ Boyd, John R. “A Discourse on Winning and Losing,” Air University document MU43947, briefing, August 1987. 12 January 2011. http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-Boyd-Papers.html.

ǶȗȐșȈȕȐȍ ǵǶǸǬ-ȞȐȒȓȈȔȖȎȕȖ ȕȈȑȚȐ Ȋ: Fadok, David S. “John Boyd and John Warden: Airpower’s Quest for Strategic Paralysis,” in Phillip S. Meilinger, (ed.). The Paths of Heaven: The Evolution of Airpower Theory. Maxwell AFB, AL: Air University Press, 1997, pp. 141-143. 12 January 2011. http://aupress.au.af.mil/SAAS_Theses/Fadok/fadok.pdf.

ǶȌȕȈ Ȑȏ ȓțȟȠȐȝ ȒȕȐȋ Ȗ ǩȖȑȌȍ – Coram, Robert. Boyd: The Fighter Pilot Who Changed the Art of War. Boston, MA: Little, Brown and Company, 2002.

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ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȧȊȓȧȓȈșȤ ȕȍȖȎȐȌȈȕȕȖșȚȤȦ, ȖȌȕȈȒȖ ȊȍȘȈ ǪȈȠȐȕȋȚȖȕȈ, ȟȚȖ «ȠȖȒ Ȑ ȚȘȍȗȍȚ» ȉȖȔȉȖȊȣȝ țȌȈȘȖȊ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȐȚ ȌȖșȚȐȟȤ ȎȍȓȈȍȔȖȋȖ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȈ Ȋ ȊȐȌȍ ȗȈȘȈȓȐȟȈ ǰȘȈȒȈ Ȑ ȕȍșȗȖșȖȉȕȖșȚȐ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȚȤ șȖȗȘȖȚȐȊȓȍȕȐȍ, ȖȒȈȏȈȓȈșȤ ȕȍșȖșȚȖȧȚȍȓȤȕȖȑ1. ǨȚȈȒțȦȡȐȑ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȏȈșȚȈȚȤ ȊȘȈșȗȓȖȝ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ ȒȈȒ șȊȖȍȑ ȐȕȐȞȐȈȚȐȊȖȑ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȗȖșȓȍȌțȦȡȐȔȐ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȈȔȐ, Ȑ ȍșȓȐ ȈȚȈȒțȍȔȣȑ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ȕȍ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȗȖȕȧȚȤ ȗȘȐȘȖȌț Ȑ ȞȍȓȐ ȊȖȑȕȣ, Ȗȕ ȖȉȘȍȟȍȕ ȗȘȖȗțșȚȐȚȤ ȟțȊșȚȊȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȍ țȌȈȘȣ. ǭșȓȐ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȈ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȍȚșȧ ȕȍȈȌȍȒȊȈȚȕȖ, ȚȖȋȌȈ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȈ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȍȚ ȞȍȓȐ ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȚȈȒȎȍ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ȕȍȈȌȍȒȊȈȚȕȖȑ, Ȉ ȗȘȖȓȐȚȈȧ ȒȘȖȊȤ Ȑ ȏȈȚȘȈȟȍȕȕȣȍ ȔȈȚȍȘȐȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȘȍșțȘșȣ – ȘȈșȚȘȈȟȍȕȕȣȔȐ ȕȈȗȘȈșȕȖ. DzȈȒ șȗȘȈȊȍȌȓȐȊȖ ȏȈȔȍȟȈȍȚ ǫȈȘȚ: «ǺȖȟȒȈ ȊȖȌȖȘȈȏȌȍȓȈ Ȑ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȐȍ ȔȍȎȌț ȊȕȍȏȈȗȕȖșȚȤȦ Ȑ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȔ ȊȕȍȏȈȗȕȖșȚȐ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ șȔȣșȓȖȔ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ ȊȖȑȕȣ»2.

Ǫ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȐ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȕȍȖȎȐȌȈȕȕȖșȚȐ ȉȖȓȤȠȈȧ ȘȖȓȤ ȖȚȊȖȌȐȚșȧ ȒȖȕȚȍȒșȚț. ǷȘȖȐșȝȖȌȧ ȖȚ ȓȈȚȐȕșȒȖȋȖ contextere, ȒȖȕȚȍȒșȚ ȐȔȍȍȚ ȌȊȈ ȏȕȈȟȍȕȐȧ: ȗȍȘȊȖȍ Ȑ ȕȈȐȉȖȓȍȍ țȗȖȚȘȍȉȐȚȍȓȤȕȖȍ ȖȏȕȈȟȈȍȚ «ȚȖ, ȟȚȖ ȖȒȘțȎȈȍȚ», ȊȚȖȘȖȍ – «ȚȖ, ȟȚȖ șȗȓȍȚȈȍȚșȧ (ȚȒȍȚșȧ, șȖȍȌȐȕȧȍȚșȧ) ȊȔȍșȚȍ»3. ǰȏ ȊȣȌȍȓȧȍȔȣȝ ȚȘȍȝ ȖșȕȖȊȕȣȝ ȒȖȕȚȍȒșȚȖȊ – ȋȍȖȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ, ȒțȓȤȚțȘȕȖȋȖ Ȑ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ – ȕȈȐȉȖȓȤȠȍȍ ȊȓȐȧȕȐȍ ȕȈ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒțȦ ȕȍȖȎȐȌȈȕȕȖșȚȤ Ȋ ȕȈșȚȖȧȡȍȍ ȊȘȍȔȧ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚ ȋȍȖȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȑ: «DzȈȒ Ȕȣ ȕȈșȚȈȐȊȈȍȔ, țșȓȖȊȐȧ ȗȖȚȍȕȞȐȈȓȤȕȖȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȊȕȍȏȈȗȕȖșȚȐ ȕȈȗȘȈȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȋȍȖȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȔ ȒȖȕȚȍȒșȚȖȔ, Ȉ ȕȍ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȍȑ, ȒțȓȤȚțȘȖȑ ȐȓȐ țȔȕȣȔȐ ȌȖȓȎȕȖșȚȕȣȔȐ ȓȐȞȈȔȐ»4.

5. ǨȌȈȗȚȈȉȍȓȤȕȖșȚȤ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ Ȑ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȣ ȚȘȈȕșȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȐ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ șȜȍȘȣ

DzȈȒ țȎȍ ȖȚȔȍȟȈȓȖșȤ, șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ Ȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȈȧ ȖȞȍȕȒȈ șȐȚțȈȞȐȐ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȣȔ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȖȔ ȗȖȉȍȌȣ, Ȉ ȕȍȎȍȓȈȕȐȍ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȘȖȊȈȚȤșȧ Ȓ ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȧȡȐȔ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧȔ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȐȔȍȚȤ ȜȈȚȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȗȖșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȧ. «ǪȍȓȐȟȈȑȠȍȑ ȖȠȐȉȒȖȑ ȗȖȒȖȓȍȕȐȧ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȓȐȌȍȘȖȊ ǷȍȘȊȖȑ ȔȐȘȖȊȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȉȣȓ Ȑȝ ȖȚȒȈȏ (ȏȈ ȘȍȌȟȈȑȠȐȔȐ ȐșȒȓȦȟȍȕȐȧȔȐ) ȉȣșȚȘȖ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȘȖȊȈȚȤșȧ Ȓ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧȔ»5. ǵȈ ȗȘȖȚȧȎȍȕȐȐ 390 ȓȍȚ ǷȍȓȖȗȖȕȍșșȒȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ șȗȈȘȚȈȕȞȣ ȓțȟȠȍ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȘȖȊȈȓȐ șȊȖȦ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȦ Ȓ ȚȍȒțȡȍȑ ȖȉșȚȈȕȖȊȒȍ, ȕȍȎȍȓȐ ȈȜȐȕȧȕȍ. ǹȗȈȘȚȈ, ȧȊȓȧȧșȤ ȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȖ șțȝȖȗțȚȕȣȔ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȖȔ, țȟȐȓȈșȤ ȚȖȔț, ȒȈȒ ȊȖȦȦȚ ǨȜȐȕȣ – ȔȖȘșȒȈȧ ȌȍȘȎȈȊȈ, ȗȘȐȊȣȒȠȈȧ Ȓ ȚȖȔț, ȟȚȖ «ȕȈ ȔȖȘȍ ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ ȊșȍȋȖ ȓȐȠȤ ȗȖȉȍȌȐȚȤ». DzȖȘȐȕȜ ȖȗȐșȣȊȈȍȚ ȈȜȐȕȧȕ ȌȖ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȒȈȒ «ȉȣșȚȘȣȝ, ȈȋȘȍșșȐȊȕȣȝ Ȑ ȗȍȘȍȌȖȊȣȝ», ȖȌȕȈȒȖ țȎȍ Ȓ ȒȖȕȞț

1 Gray, Transformation and Strategy Surprise, pp. 10-11.

2 Liddell Hart, Basil H. History of the First World War. London: Pan Books, 1972, p. 325. 3 Gray, Modern Strategy, ch. 5.

4 Gray, Colin S. Another Bloody Century: Future Warfare. London: Weidenfeld and Nicolson, 2005. 5 Leonard, The Principles of War for the Information Age, p. 5.

205

ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȊȖȑȕȣ «ȔȍȌȓȍȕȕȣȍ, ȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȣȍ, ȓȐȠȍȕȕȣȍ ȊȖȖȉȘȈȎȍȕȐȧ șȗȈȘȚȈȕȞȣ» ȖȒȈȏȈȓȐșȤ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȓțȟȠȍ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȘȖȊȈȚȤșȧ Ȓ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȔ țșȓȖȊȐȧȔ1.

ǷȘȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐ ȜȈȚȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȉȍȌșȚȊȐȧ ǪȚȖȘȖȑ ȗțȕȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȗȘȍȌȠȍșȚȊȖȊȈȊȠȐȍ ȘȖșȚț ǸȐȔșȒȖȑ ȐȔȗȍȘȐȐ, Ȑ ȗȖȉȍȌȣ ǫȈȕȕȐȉȈȓȈ ȊȣȕțȌȐȓȐ ȘȐȔȓȧȕ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ șȊȖȦ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȦ. ǮȍșȚȒȖȔț ȊȖȍȕȕȖȔț ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊț, ȗȘȐȌȍȘȎȐȊȈȊȠȍȔțșȧ ȕȈșȚțȗȈȚȍȓȤȕȖȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ, ȉȣȓȈ șȖȊȍȘȠȍȕȕȖ ȕȍ șȊȖȑșȚȊȍȕȕȈ ȖȉȖȘȖȕȐȚȍȓȤȕȈȧ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ, ȘȈșșȟȐȚȈȕȕȈȧ ȕȈ ȐȏȔȈȚȣȊȈȕȐȍ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ2. ǺȍȔ ȕȍ Ȕȍȕȍȍ, șȚȖȓȒȕțȊȠȐșȤ ș ȊȖȍȕȕȣȔ ȋȍȕȐȍȔ ǫȈȕȕȐȉȈȓȈ Ȑ ȍȋȖ ȗȖȉȍȌȈȔȐ Ȋ ǺȘȍȉȐȐ, ǺȘȈșȐȔȍȕȍ Ȑ DzȈȕȕȈȝ, ȗȖșȚȈȊȐȊȠȐȔȐ ǸȐȔșȒțȦ ǸȍșȗțȉȓȐȒț ȕȈ ȋȘȈȕȤ ȒȈȚȈșȚȘȖȜȣ, ȘȐȔșȒȐȑ ȌȐȒȚȈȚȖȘ ǼȈȉȐțș ȔȖȌȐȜȐȞȐȘȖȊȈȓ ȘȐȔșȒțȦ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȦ3, ȏȈȔȍȕȐȊ ȍȍ ȕȈ «ȗȘȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȖȍ ȉȓȈȋȖȘȈȏțȔȐȍ Ȍȓȧ ȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȖȑ ȌȖȉȓȍșȚȐ Ȑ ȖȚșȚțȗȓȍȕȐȍ ȗȍȘȍȌ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȖȔ ș ȞȍȓȤȦ ȐȏȉȍȎȈȚȤ ȟȍȚȊȍȘȚȖȋȖ, ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ ȜȈȚȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȗȖȘȈȎȍȕȐȧ»4. ǸȐȔ ȖȒȈȏȈȓșȧ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ șȊȖȦ ȌȖ ȚȖȋȖ ȗȖȉȍȌȖȕȖșȕțȦ ȊȖȍȕȕțȦ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȦ Ȍȓȧ ȊȣȎȐȊȈȕȐȧ. ǪȍȒ șȗțșȚȧ ǷȖȓȐȉȐȑ, ȖșȊȍȡȈȧ ȖȌȕț Ȑȏ șȐȓȤȕȣȝ șȚȖȘȖȕ ǸȐȔȈ, ȋȖȊȖȘȐȓ Ȗ ȍȋȖ șȗȖșȖȉȕȖșȚȐ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȖȉȣȟȈȐ, ȖȘțȎȐȍ Ȑ ȚȈȒȚȐȒț, ȟȚȖȉȣ «ȗȖȌȘȈȎȈȚȤ ȚȖȔț, ȟȚȖ șȌȍȓȈȕȖ ȓțȟȠȍ ȌȘțȋȐȔȐ»5.

ǴȖȓȤȚȒȍ, ȖȗȐșȣȊȈȧ șȓȖȎȕțȦ ȗȘȐȘȖȌț ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȗȘȐȏȣȊȈȓ ȒȖȔȈȕȌȐȘȖȊ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȚȤ ȋȍȕȐȈȓȤȕȖșȚȤ, Ȍțȝ, ȖȗȣȚ, ȖȉȘȈȏȖȊȈȕȐȍ Ȑ ȈȌȈȗȚȈȉȍȓȤȕȖșȚȤ. «ǴȈȚȍȘȐȈȓȤȕȣȍ Ȑ ȔȖȘȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȗȖșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȧ ȓȦȉȖȋȖ ȉȖȓȤȠȖȋȖ șȘȈȎȍȕȐȧ, ȖȌȕȈȒȖ, ȟȘȍȊȈȚȣ ȚȈȒȐȔȐ șȍȘȤȍȏȕȣȔȐ ȗȖșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȧȔȐ, ȟȚȖ ȉȓȈȋȖȌȈȘȧ ȕȐȔ șȖȏȌȈȍȚșȧ șȖȊȍȘȠȍȕȕȖ ȌȘțȋȈȧ șȐȚțȈȞȐȧ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ ȏȈȚȍȔ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȉȈȏȐșȖȔ Ȍȓȧ ȕȖȊȣȝ ȖȞȍȕȖȒ.

ǵȐ ȖȌȐȕ ȗȓȈȕ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȑ ȕȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȚȤșȧ ș ȒȈȒȖȑ-ȓȐȉȖ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȖșȚȤȦ ȗȖșȓȍ ȗȍȘȊȖȑ ȊșȚȘȍȟȐ ș ȉȖȓȤȠȐȔȐ șȐȓȈȔȐ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ. DzȖȔȈȕȌțȦȡȐȑ ȊȣȕțȎȌȍȕ Ȋ ȚȍȟȍȕȐȍ Ȋșȍȑ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȐ ȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȚȤ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ ȕȈ ȖșȕȖȊȍ șȐȚțȈȞȐȑ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȕȍ ȔȖȋțȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȕȣ. Ǫșȍ ȗȖșȓȍȌțȦȡȐȍ ȠȈȋȐ ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȗȖȥȚȖȔț, ȕȍ ȍșȚȤ ȊȣȗȖȓȕȍȕȐȍ ȏȈȘȈȕȍȍ ȖȉȌțȔȈȕȕȖȋȖ ȗȓȈȕȈ, ȕȖ șȗȖȕȚȈȕȕȣȍ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ, ȕȈȗȘȈȊȓȧȍȔȣȍ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȔ ȏȌȘȈȊȣȔ șȔȣșȓȖȔ.

ǷȘȖȉȓȍȔȈ ȏȈȒȓȦȟȈȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȐ ȗȖȒȘȣȊȈȍȔȖȑ ȚțȔȈȕȖȔ ȕȍȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȖșȚȐ ȚȍȒțȡȍȑ șȐȚțȈȞȐȐ, Ȋ ȉȍșȟȐșȓȍȕȕȖȔ ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȍ șȗȍȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȝ șȓțȟȈȍȊ, ȒȖȘȘȍȒȚȕȖȑ ȖȞȍȕȒȍ ȜȈȒȚȖȊ Ȑ ȗȘȈȊȐȓȤȕȖȔ țȋȈȌȣȊȈȕȐȐ ȕȍȐȏȊȍșȚȕȣȝ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȖȊ Ȍȓȧ ȊȣȘȈȉȖȚȒȐ ȉȣșȚȘȖȋȖ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ Ȑ ȏȈȚȍȔ ȕȍȗȘȍȒȓȖȕȕȖȍ ȊȖȓȍȊȖȍ ȍȋȖ ȐșȗȖȓȕȍ-

ȕȐȍ. <…>

1 Kagan, Donald. “Athenian Strategy in the Peloponnesian War,” in Williamson Murray, MacGregor Knox, and Alvin Bernstein (eds.). The Making of Strategy: Rulers, States, and War. New York: Cambridge University Press, 1994.

2 Bernstein, The Strategy of a Warrior-State, pp. 80-81.

3 Polybius. The Rise of the Roman Empire. Trans. Ian Scott-Kilvert, New York: Penguin Books, 1979, pp. 236-275. 4 Bernstein, The Strategy of a Warrior-State, p. 84.

5 Polybius, The Rise of the Roman Empire, pp. 318-338.

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ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ǶȟȍȊȐȌȕȖ, ȟȚȖ ȚȍȖȘȍȚȐȟȍșȒȖȍ ȏȕȈȕȐȍ ȕȍ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȣȔ, ȖȌȕȈȒȖ ȐȔȍȕȕȖ ȏȌȍșȤ șȐȓȣ țȔȈ Ȑ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘȈ ȗȖȓțȟȈȦȚ șȊȖȉȖȌȕȖȍ, ȗȘȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȖȍ Ȑ ȈȘȚȐșȚȐȟȍșȒȖȍ ȊȣȘȈȎȍȕȐȍ, ȝȖȚȧ Ȑ Ȗȉțȟȍȕȕȣȍ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȗȖȌȋȖȚȖȊȒȖȑ Ȑ ȕȈȗȘȈȊȓȧȍȔȣȍ șȖȉșȚȊȍȕȕȣȔ ȖȗȣȚȖȔ ȐȓȐ ȖȗȣȚȖȔ Ȑȏ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȐșȚȖȘȐȐ»1.

ǪȈȎȕȍȑȠȐȔ ȈșȗȍȒȚȖȔ ȚȘȈȕșȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȐ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ șȜȍȘȣ ǹȀǨ, ȐȔȍȦȡȍȑ ȞȍȓȤȦ ȗȘȐȊȍșȚȐ ȈȔȍȘȐȒȈȕșȒțȦ ȊȖȍȕȕțȦ ȔȈȠȐȕț Ȋ șȖȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊȐȍ ș ȚȘȍȉȖȊȈȕȐȧȔȐ 21 ȊȍȒȈ, șȚȈȕȖȊȧȚșȧ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȣ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȒțȓȤȚțȘȣ. «ǾȍȕȕȖșȚȐ Ȑ ȒțȓȤȚțȘȈ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȎȐȏȕȍȕȕȣȔ ȐȕșȚȐȚțȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȔ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȊȍșȖȔ ȊȘȖȎȌȍȕȕȖȔț ȒȖȕșȍȘȊȈȚȐȏȔț ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȐȍȘȈȘȝȐȑ Ȑ ȐȕȍȘȞȐȐ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȝ ȉȦȘȖȒȘȈȚȐȑ»2. ǺȍȔ șȈȔȣȔ ȈȌȈȗȚȈȞȐȧ Ȑ ȈȌȈȗȚȈȉȍȓȤȕȖșȚȤ șȚȈȕȖȊȧȚșȧ ȊȈȎȕȍȑȠȍȑ ȒțȓȤȚțȘȕȖȑ ȌȖȔȐȕȈȕȚȖȑ țșȗȍȠȕȖȑ ȚȘȈȕșȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȐ, șȚȐȔțȓȐȘțȦȡȍȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȓȐȌȍȘȖȊ Ȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȑ ȐșȚȍȉȓȐȠȔȍȕȚȒȘȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐ ȖȞȍȕȐȊȈȚȤ șȐȚțȈȞȐȦȐ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȘȖȊȈȚȤșȧ ȒȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȧȡȐȔ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧȔ. ǷȘȐȌȈȕȐȍ ȈȌȈȗȚȈȉȍȓȤȕȖșȚȐ șȚȈȚțșȈ ȗȘȐȕȞȐȗȈ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȔȖȎȍȚ șȚȈȚȤ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȣȔ șȚȐȔțȓȖȔ Ȑ ȗȍȘȊȣȔ ȠȈȋȖȔ ȕȈ ȗțȚȐ ȕȍȐȏȉȍȎȕȣȝ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȑ Ȋ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȑȒțȓȤȚțȘȍ.

1 Earle, Edward Mead (ed.). The Makers of Modern Strategy: Military Thought from Machiavelli to Hitler. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1944, p. 179.

2 Ulmer, Walter F. Jr., Edwin Dorn, Howard Graves, Joseph J. Collins, and T. O. Jacobs. American Military Culture in the Twenty-First Century: A Report of the CSIS International Security Program. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Washington DC, February 2000, p. 42.

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ǫdzǨǪǨ 4. ǺǸǨǵǹǼǶǸǴǨǾǰȇ ǪǶǭǵǵǶDZ ǹǼǭǸȃ

ǰǺǭǶǸǰȇ ǹǭǺǭǾǭǵǺǸǰǿǵȃǽ ǪǶDZǵ

I.ǰǴǷǭǸǨǺǰǪȃ ǵǶǪǶDZ ȅǷǶǽǰ ǰ ǴǶǬǭdzǰ DzǶǵǼdzǰDzǺǶǪ

ǪǹǸǭǬǭ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

1.ǪȖȍȕȕȈȧ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȧ Ȑ șȘȍȌȈ ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȐ 21 ȊȍȒȈ

ǸȍȠȍȕȐȧ, șȊȧȏȈȕȕȣȍ ș ȗȘȖȞȍșșȈȔȐ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȐȏȈȞȐȐ, ȓȍȎȈȚ ȗȘȍȎȌȍ ȊșȍȋȖ Ȋ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ, șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȖȑ Ȑ ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȟȍșȒȖȑ șȜȍȘȈȝ, ȕȖ ȕȍ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ. ǺȍȔ ȕȍ Ȕȍȕȍȍ, ȟȚȖȉȣ ȖșȚȈȊȈȚȤșȧ ȈȌȍȒȊȈȚȕȣȔȐ, ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȕȣȍ șȐȓȣ Ȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȈȧ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȧ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊ Ȋ 21 ȊȍȒȍ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȘȖȊȈȚȤșȧ Ȓ ȕȖȊȣȔ țșȓȖȊȐȧȔ. ǫȓȖȉȈȓȐȏȈȞȐȧ ȐȏȔȍȕȧȍȚ ȋȍȖȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȑ ȓȈȕȌȠȈȜȚ Ȑ șȘȍȌț ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȐ, ȊȣȕțȎȌȈȧ ȕȈȞȐȐ șȜȖȘȔțȓȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȕȖȊȣȍ ȚȘȍȉȖȊȈȕȐȧ Ȓ șȊȖȐȔ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȔ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȧȔ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȐȓȐ ȉȣ șȗȘȈȊȐȚȤșȧ ȒȈȒ șȖ șȚȈȘȣȔȐ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ ș ȕȖȊȣȔȐ ȊȣȏȖȊȈȔȐ. ǷȘȐ ȥȚȖȔ țȎȍ ȧȊșȚȊȍȕȕȖ ȊȐȌȕȖ, ȟȚȖ ȖȕȐ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȊȈȚȤ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȍ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚȈȘȐȧ ȕȈ ȋȖȘȈȏȌȖ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȠȐȘȖȒȖȔ ȌȐȈȗȈȏȖȕȍ șȞȍȕȈȘȐȍȊ, ȕȍȎȍȓȐ ȥȚȖ ȉȣȓȖ ȗȘȐȕȧȚȖ ȘȈȕȤȠȍ. ǪȖȖȘțȎȍȕȕȣȍ șȐȓȣ Ȋ 21 ȊȍȒȍ ȊȣȕțȎȌȍȕȣ ȘȍȠȈȚȤ ȏȈȌȈȟȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȘȈȕȍȍ ȕȍ ȖȚȕȖșȐȓȐșȤ Ȓ ȒȖȔȗȍȚȍȕȞȐȐ ȈȘȔȐȐ Ȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ.

ǴȐȘȐȈȌȣ șȊȧȏȍȑ, ȗȘȖȕȐȏȣȊȈȦȡȐȝ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȣȑ ȔȐȘ, ȌȍȓȈȦȚ ȕȍȈȌȍȒȊȈȚȕȣȔȐ ȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȣȍ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȣ Ȓ ȗȖșȚȘȖȍȕȐȦ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȕȣȝ șȐȓ Ȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȈ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȖșȚȈȦȚșȧ ȖȘȐȍȕȚȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȣȔȐ ȕȈ ȘȍȈȓȐȐ 20 ȊȍȒȈ. Ǫ șȖȏȌȈȕȐȍ șȘȍȌȣ ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȐ 21 ȊȍȒȈ ȊȕȖșȧȚ șȊȖȦ ȓȍȗȚț ȕȖȊȣȍ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȣ – ȕȍȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȍȕȕȣȍ ȈȒȚȖȘȣ, ȕȍșȖșȚȖȧȊȠȐȍșȧ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȈ, ȒȘȐȔȐȕȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ Ȑ ȗȘ., Ȍȓȧ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȐȌȍȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȍ, ȒțȓȤȚțȘȕȣȍ, ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ Ȑ ȗȘȖȟȐȍ ȋȘȈȕȐȞȣ 20 ȊȍȒȈ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȗȖȘȐșȚȣȔȐ Ȑ ȗȘȖȕȐȞȈȍȔȣȔȐ1. Ǫ ȕȖȊȣȝ țșȓȖȊȐȧȝ ȊȖȍȕȕȈȧ șȐȓȈ ȕȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȚȤșȧ ȐșȒȓȦȟȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ Ȋ ȚȍȘȔȐȕȈȝ ȔȍȎȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȍȕȕȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȑ, ȍȡȍ țȎȍ, ȉȖȓȤȠȐȝ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȑ.

ǬȘțȋȖȑ ȈșȗȍȒȚ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȣ ȏȈȒȓȦȟȈȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȚȖȔ, ȟȚȖ ȕȍșȜȖȘȔțȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȖșȚȤ ȕȖȊȣȝ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȖȊ Ȓ ȘȖȓȐ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȕȣȝ șȐȓ Ȋ 21 ȊȍȒȍ ȕȍ ȖȚȔȍȕȧȍȚ Ȑȝ ȊȓȐȧȕȐȍ ȕȈ șȒȓȈȌȣȊȈȦȡțȦșȧ șȘȍȌț ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȐ. ǸȈȏȕȖȖȉȘȈȏȕȈȧ ȊȖȍȕȕȈȧ ȈȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȤ Ȋ ȓȦȉȖȔ șȓțȟȈȍ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊțȍȚ ȕȈ ȜȖȘȔȐȘțȦȡțȦșȧ șȘȍȌț, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ȗȓȈ-

1 Vlahos, Michael. “Fighting Identity: Why We Are Losing Our Wars,” Military Review, Vol. 87, No. 6, NovemberDecember, 2007, pp. 2-12. 12 January 2011. http://usacac.leavenworth.army.mil/CAC/milreview/English/NovDec07/ VlahosEngNovDec07.pdf.

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ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

șȚȐȟȕȖȑ Ȑ ȗȖȌȊȍȘȎȍȕȕȖȑ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧȔ. ǰ Ȋ ȚȖ Ȏȍ ȊȘȍȔȧ ȖȚșțȚșȚȊȐȍ ȈȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȐ ȗȈȘȈȌȖȒșȈȓȤȕȣȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȚȤ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȍ ȒȈȒ ȕȈ șȐȚțȈȞȐȦ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȕȈ șȘȍȌț Ȋ ȞȍȓȖȔ, ȗȘȖȐȏȊȖȌȧ ȥȜȜȍȒȚ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ ȗȖ șȊȖȐȔ ȗȖșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȧȔ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȗȘȍȊȖșȝȖȌȐȚȤ ȓȦȉȖȍ Ȑȏ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ. DzȓȈșșȐȟȍșȒȐȔ ȗȘȐȔȍȘȖȔ ȚȈȒȖȋȖ ȕȍȊȔȍȠȈȚȍȓȤșȚȊȈ ȔȖȎȍȚ șȓțȎȐȚȤ ȔȦȕȝȍȕșȒȐȑ șȋȖȊȖȘ 1938 ȋȖȌȈ Ȑ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȍ ǩȘȐȚȈȕȐȐ Ȑ ǼȘȈȕȞȐȐ ȖȚȒȈȏȈȚȤ Ȋ ȗȖȔȖȡȐ ǿȍȝȖșȓȖȊȈȒȐȐ1.

Ǫ ȚȈȒȐȝ țșȓȖȊȐȧȝ ȔȕȖȎȍșȚȊȖ ȝȖȘȖȠȖ ȗȘȖȘȈȉȖȚȈȕȕȣȝ Ȑ ȜȖȘȔȈȓȐȏȖȊȈȕȕȣȝ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚȖȊ ȐȕȌțșȚȘȐȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȥȗȖȝȐ, ȒȓȈșșȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȕȣȍ șȐȓȣ Ȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȈȧ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȧ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊ Ȋ ȞȍȓȖȔ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȦȚșȧ ȕȍȈȌȍȒȊȈȚȕȣȔȐ ȕȖȊȖȔț ȒȖȕȚȍȒșȚț. ǺȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȕȖșȧȚ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȣȑ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘ, ȚȖ ȊȖȍȕȕȈȧ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȧ ȕȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȗȘȐȊȍȌȍȕȈ Ȋ șȖȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊȐȍ ș ȕȍȑ ȟȍȘȍȏ ȕȍȒȐȍ ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȣȍ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ, ȖȝȊȈȚȣȊȈȦȡȐȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȊȖȍȕȕțȦ șȖșȚȈȊȓȧȦȡțȦ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȐ. ǷȖșȒȖȓȤȒț șȘȍȌȈ ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȐ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ șȓȖȎȕȖȑ Ȑ ȕȍȗȘȍȘȣȊȕȖ ȐȏȔȍȕȧȦȡȍȑșȧ, ȚȖ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚȤ Ȗ ȗȖȓȕȖȔ ȏȕȈȕȐȐ Ȑ ȖșȔȣșȓȍȕȐȐ Ȋșȍȝ ȊȣȏȖȊȖȊ Ȑ țȋȘȖȏ. Ǫ ȗȍȘȊȖȔ ȗȘȐȉȓȐȎȍȕȐȐ ȊȣȏȖȊȣ Ȑ țȋȘȖȏȣ ȔȖȋțȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȘȈȏȌȍȓȍȕȣ ȕȈ ȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȣȍ, ȐȘȘȍȋțȓȧȘȕȣȍ, ȘȈȏȘțȠȈȦȡȐȍ Ȑ ȒȈȚȈșȚȘȖȜȐȟȍșȒȐȍ2. Ǫ ȕȖȊȖȑ șȘȍȌȍ ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȐ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȦȡȐȔȐ șȚȈȕȖȊȧȚșȧ șȓȍȌțȦȡȐȍ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘȐșȚȐȒȐ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȈȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȐ:

x ȔȕȖȋȖȔȍȘȕȣȍ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȐ Ȑ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȐ, ȚȈȒȐȍ ȒȈȒ Ȋ ǨȜȋȈȕȐșȚȈȕȍ, ǰȘȈȒȍ, ȊȖșȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȦȚșȧ șȒȖȘȍȍ ȒȈȒ ȕȖȘȔȈ, ȕȍȎȍȓȐ ȈȉȍȘȘȈȞȐȧ;

x ȒȈȒ șȈȔȐ ȈȒȚȖȘȣ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȔȖȋțȚ ȐȔȍȚȤ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȣȑ ȐȓȐ ȓȖȒȈȓȤȕȣȑ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘ, ȉȣȚȤ șȐȔȔȍȚȘȐȟȕȣȔȐ ȐȓȐ ȈșȐȔȔȍȚȘȐȟȕȣȔȐ, ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȍȕȕȣȔȐ ȐȓȐ ȕȍȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȍȕȕȣȔȐ;

x ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ ȘȈȏȌȍȓȐȚȤ Ȑ ȒȓȈșșȐȜȐȞȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ș ȟȍȚȒȐȔ ȊȣȌȍȓȍȕȐȍȔ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ, ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ, șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȐȓȐ ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȟȍșȒȖȑ șȖșȚȈȊȓȧȦȡȍȑ.

ǴȕȖȋȖȔȍȘȕȣȍ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȐ 21 ȊȍȒȈ ȗȖ-ȘȈȏȕȖȔț ȊȖșȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȦȚșȧ ȠȐȘȖȒȐȔ șȗȍȒȚȘȖȔ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȈȚȍȓȍȑ – ȖȚ șȖȦȏȕȐȒȖȊ ȌȖ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȖȊ, Ȑ șȒȈȏȈȚȤ ȏȈȘȈȕȍȍ, ȒȈȒȖȑ ȐȔȍȕȕȖ ȈșȗȍȒȚ ȖȒȈȎȍȚșȧ ȘȍȠȈȦȡȐȔ, ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ. ǩȖȓȍȍ ȚȖȋȖ, ȟȈșȚȖ ȐȔȍȕȕȖ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȍ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȣȝ ȜȈȒȚȖȘȖȊ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȘȍȠȈȦȡȐȔ ȒȈȒ Ȋ șȈȔȖȔ ȗȘȖȚȍȒȈȕȐȐ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȐ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ Ȋ ȍȍ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȈȝ.

2. ǨșȐȔȔȍȚȘȐȟȕȣȍ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȣ

ǶȌȕȖȑ Ȑȏ ȗȘȐȟȐȕ, șȚȐȔțȓȐȘȖȊȈȊȠȐȝ ȗȖȧȊȓȍȕȐȍ ȕȖȊȣȝ ȚȍȖȘȐȑ Ȑ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȘȖșȚ Ȋ 21 ȊȍȒȍ ȟȐșȓȈ ȈșȐȔȔȍȚȘȐȟȕȣȝ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȖȊ. ǺȍȖȘȐȧ șȓȖȎȕȣȝ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚ, ȟȚȖ ȒȈȎȌȈȧ Ȑȏ șȚȖȘȖȕ, țȟȈșȚȊțȦȡȈȧ Ȋ ȗȘȖ-

1 Smith, Complexity, Networking, and Effects-Based Approaches to Operations, p. 3. 2 Cebrowski, Arthur K. Transformation and the Changing Character of War, p. 2.

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ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȚȐȊȖȉȖȘșȚȊȍ, ȉțȌȍȚ ȗȘȐȌȍȘȎȐȊȈȚȤșȧ ȊȣȉȘȈȕȕȖȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ Ȑ ȚȈȒȚȐȒȐ, ȗȖȒȈ ȖȕȐ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȚ ȍȑ șȗȘȈȊȓȧȚȤșȧ ș ȊȣȏȖȊȈȔȐ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȖȑ șȚȖȘȖȕȣ. DzȖȋȌȈ ȊȣȉȘȈȕȕȣȑ ȒțȘș ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ ȗȍȘȍșȚȈȍȚ ȖȚȊȍȟȈȚȤ ȘȍȈȓȐȧȔ, Ȗȕ ȔȍȕȧȍȚșȧ, ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȧ ȐȔȍȦȡȐȍșȧ Ȋ ȘȈșȗȖȘȧȎȍȕȐȐ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ Ȑ ȘȍșțȘșȣ – ȒȈȒ ȟȐșȚȖ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ Ȑȕȣȍ. ǺȈȒȖȍ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ ȌȍȔȖȕșȚȘȐȘțȦȚ Ȋșȍ șȚȖȘȖȕȣ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȈ, Ȑ ȗȘȖȞȍșș ȈȌȈȗȚȈȞȐȐ ȒțȘșȈ ȉțȌȍȚ ȐȕȐȞȐȐȘȖȊȈȚȤșȧ ȊȕȖȊȤ Ȑ ȊȕȖȊȤ, ȖȚ ȖȌȕȖȋȖ șȚȖȓȒȕȖȊȍȕȐȧ Ȓ ȌȘțȋȖȔț, ȗȖȒȈ ȕȍ ȉțȌȍȚ ȕȈȑȌȍȕ țȌȈȟȕȣȑ, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȡȐȑ ȕȈȕȍșȚȐ ȖȒȖȕȟȈȚȍȓȤȕȖȍ ȗȖȘȈȎȍȕȐȍ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒț, ȐȓȐ ȖȌȕȈ Ȑȏ șȚȖȘȖȕ ȕȍ ȐșȟȍȘȗȈȍȚ ȐȔȍȦȡȐȍșȧ Ȋ ȍȍ ȘȈșȗȖȘȧȎȍȕȐȐ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȊȣȉȖȘȈ (ȖȗȞȐȐ) – ȐȕȚȍȓȓȍȒȚțȈȓȤȕȣȍ, ȗșȐȝȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȐȓȐ ȜȐȏȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȘȍșțȘșȣ.

ǪȘȈȔȒȈȝ ȌȈȕȕȖȑ ȘȈȉȖȚȣ ȗȖȌȘȖȉȕȖȍ ȘȈșșȔȖȚȘȍȕȐȍ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȣ ȈșȐȔȔȍȚȘȐȐ

ȐȈșȐȔȔȍȚȘȐȟȕȣȝ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȖȊ ȕȍ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣȔ. ǨșȐȔȔȍȚȘȐȧ ȟȈȡȍ ȊșȍȋȖ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȍȚșȧ ȟȍȘȍȏ ȔȈșȠȚȈȉ ȉȖȍȊȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ, șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȦ Ȑ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȐȍ, ȝȖȚȧ ȌȖȓȎȕȈ ȉȣȚȤ ȘȈșșȔȖȚȘȍȕȈ șȒȖȘȍȍ Ȋ ȚȍȘȔȐȕȈȝ ȈșȐȔȔȍȚȘȐȐ ȊȖȓȐ Ȑ șȘȍȌșȚȊ (will and means). Ǫ ȥȚȖȔ ȈșȗȍȒȚȍ ȠȐȘȖȒȖȔȈșȠȚȈȉȕȣȍ ȊȖȑȕȣ 20 ȊȍȒȈ ȉȣȓȐ ȊȖ ȔȕȖȋȖȔ șȐȔȔȍȚȘȐȟȕȣȔȐ (ǸȐș. 4), ȚȈȒ ȒȈȒ Ȋșȍ șȚȖȘȖȕȣ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȈ ȐȔȍȓȐ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ Ȑ ȊȖȓȦ ȊȖșșȚȈȕȈȊȓȐȊȈȚȤ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȑ ȗȖȚȍȕȞȐȈȓ, Ȑ ȗȘȖȐȋȘȣȠ ȖȚȌȍȓȤȕȖȑ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȐ ȐȓȐ șȘȈȎȍȕȐȧ ȕȍ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȓ ȕȍȔȍȌȓȍȕȕȖ Ȓ ȗȖȘȈȎȍȕȐȦ Ȋ ȊȖȑȕȍ. ȅȚȖ ȖȏȕȈȟȈȍȚ, ȟȚȖ șȐȔȔȍȚȘȐȟȕȣȔ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȈȔ ȗȘȐșțȡȈ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ȜȐȏȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȐȏȕțȘȍȕȐȧ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȟȍȘȍȏ ȗȖșȚȍȗȍȕȕȖȍ țȔȍȕȤȠȍȕȐȍ ȜȐȏȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȍȑ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ ȊȍșȚȐ ȊȖȑȕț ȌȖȉȐȊȈȦȚșȧ ȗșȐȝȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȕȈȌȓȖȔȈ Ȑ ȗȖȚȍȘȐ ȊȖȓȐ Ȓ șȖȗȘȖȚȐȊȓȍȕȐȦ, ȟȚȖ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚ Ȓ ȒȈȗȐȚțȓȧȞȐȐ Ȑ ȖȚȒȈȏț ȖȚ ȗȘȖȌȖȓȎȍȕȐȧ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȕȖȑ ȉȖȘȤȉȣ.

ǩȖȓȤȠȐȕșȚȊȖ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȖȊ 21 ȊȍȒȈ ȐȔȍȦȚ ȌȘțȋțȦ ȜȖȘȔț Ȑ ȒȖȕȚȍȒșȚ (ǸȐș. 5). ǿȈȡȍ ȊșȍȋȖ ȖȌȕȈ Ȑȏ șȚȖȘȖȕ ȐȔȍȍȚ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȑ ȗȖȚȍȕȞȐȈȓ

ȐȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȊȍșȚȐ ȊȖȑȕț, ȕȖ ȗȘȐ ȥȚȖȔ ȖȉȓȈȌȈȍȚ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȕȣȔȐ ȊȖȓȍȑ Ȑ șȚȐȔțȓȈȔȐ ȍȍ ȊȍșȚȐ. ǬȘțȋȈȧ șȚȖȘȖȕȈ ȐȔȍȍȚ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȕȣȍ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ Ȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȑ ȗȖȚȍȕȞȐȈȓ, ȕȖ șȐȓȤȕțȦ ȔȖȚȐȊȈȞȐȦ Ȑ ȊȖȓȦ Ȓ șȖȗȘȖȚȐȊȓȍȕȐȦ Ȑ ȉȖȘȤȉȍ. ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚȤ Ȗ ȌȊțȝ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȣȝ ȈșȐȔȔȍȚȘȐȧȝ – ȈșȐȔȔȍȚȘȐȐ șȘȍȌșȚȊ Ȑ ȈșȐȔȔȍȚȘȐȐ ȊȖȓȐ.

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