Арзуманян Р., Сложное мышление и сеть парадигма нелинейности и среда безопасности 21 века

ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȗȍȘȍșȚȈȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȖȕȕȣȔ ȜȖȒțșȖȔ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȖȊ, ȗȘȖȚȍȒȈȦȡȐȝ Ȋ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȔ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȍ. ǰșȚȖȘȐȧ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊ, ȗȐȠȍȚ ǸȖȏȍȕȈț, ȍșȚȤ ȐșȚȖȘȐȧ ȚȍȘȘȐȚȖȘȐȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȘȈȏȔȍȎȍȊȈȕȐȧ, ȟȍȚȒȐȝ ȓȐȕȐȑ ȔȍȎȌț ȋȍȖȋȘȈȜȐȟȍșȒȐ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȕȣȔȐ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȈȔȐ, ȕȖ Ȋ ȕȈȘȖȎȌȈȦȡȍȑșȧ ȜȘȈȋȔȍȋȘȈȚȐȊȕȖȑ ȥȗȖȝȍ ȓȐȕȐȐ ȗȘȖȚȐȘȈȦȚșȧ1. DzȈȒ șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍ, ȋȍȖȋȘȈȜȐȟȍșȒȐȑ ȓȈȕȌȠȈȜȚ (landscape) ȌȖȗȖȓȕȧȍȚșȧ, Ȉ ȊȖ ȔȕȖȋȐȝ șȓțȟȈȧȝ ȏȈȔȍȕȧȍȚșȧ ȥȚȕȖȠȈȜȚȖȔ (ethnoscapes), ȜȐȕȈȕșȖȠȈȜȚȖȔ (financescapes), ȐȌȍȖȠȈȜȚȖȔ (ideoscapes), ȔȍȌȐȈȠȈȜȚȖȔ (mediascapes), ȚȍȝȕȖȠȈȜȚȖȔ

(technoscapes) Ȑ ȐȌȍȕȚȐȠȈȜȚȖȔ (identiscapes)2.

ǸȈșșȔȖȚȘȍȕȕȣȍ ȊȣȠȍ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȣ Ȑ ȧȊȓȍȕȐȧ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȧȚ Ȓ ȚȖȔț, ȟȚȖ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȈ Ȋșȍ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȗȘȍȊȘȈȡȈȦȚșȧ Ȋ ȔȍȕȍȌȎȍȘȖȊ ȗȍȘȍșȍȒȈȦȡȐȝ ȋȘȈȕȐȞȣ ȚȘȈȜȐȒȖȊ3, ȈȋȍȕȚșȚȊȈ, șȖȗȘȖȊȖȎȌȈȦȡȐȍ Ȑ ȖȉșȓțȎȐȊȈȦȡȐȍ ȗȖȚȖȒ ȉȍșȒȖȕȍȟȕȣȝ ȖȉȔȍȕȖȊ ȟȍȘȍȏ șȊȖȐ ȋȘȈȕȐȞȣ. ǬȈ, ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȖ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȐȚȤ șȐȓț Ȍȓȧ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȍȕȐȧ șȊȖȐȝ ȜțȕȒȞȐȑ, ȕȖ țȎȍ ȕȍ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȊȣȗȖȓȕȧȚȤ ȘȖȓȤ ȍȌȐȕȖȓȐȟȕȖȋȖ ȈȒȚȖȘȈ, ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȦȡȍȋȖ ȗȘȈȊȐȓȈ ȐȋȘȣ ȕȈ ȔȍȎȌțȕȈȘȖȌȕȖȑ ȈȘȍȕȍ. ȅȚȈ ȜțȕȒȞȐȧ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ȘȈșȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȖȑ șȘȍȌȐ ȉȖȓȤȠȖȋȖ ȟȐșȓȈ ȕȖȊȣȝ ȈȒȚȖȘȖȊ, ȗȘȐȕȈȌȓȍȎȈȡȐȝ Ȋ ȚȖȔ ȟȐșȓȍ Ȑ ȕȖȊȣȔ șȜȍȘȈȔ ȊȓȈșȚȐ. ǶȏȕȈȟȈȍȚ ȓȐ Ȋșȍ ȊȣȠȍșȒȈȏȈȕȕȖȍ, ȟȚȖ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȖ, ȒȈȒ ȕȍȖȚȢȍȔȓȍȔȣȑ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚ ȔȐȘȖȊȖȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȣ, ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȕȍȕțȎȕȣȔ Ȑ ȓȐȠȕȐȔ? ǶȟȍȊȐȌȕȖ, ȟȚȖ ȕȍȚ. ǵȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȍ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȖ ȍȡȍ ȌȖȓȋȖ ȉțȌȍȚ ȖșȚȈȊȈȚȤșȧ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȣȔ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚȖȔ Ȍȓȧ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ ȔȈȓȣȝ Ȑ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȝ ȋȍȖȋȘȈȜȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊ4 Ȑ ȚȍȘȔȐȕȈȓȤȕȣȔ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȔ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȖȔ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ5.

ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖ ȕȈțȟȐȚȤșȧ ȘȈȉȖȚȈȚȤ ș ȊșȍȗȘȖȕȐȒȈȦȡȍȑ ȕȍȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȖșȚȤȦ Ȑ ȕȈȘȈșȚȈȦȡȍȑ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȒȖȑ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȝ Ȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȖȊ. ȅȚȖ, Ȋ șȊȖȦ ȖȟȍȘȍȌȤ, ȚȘȍȉțȍȚ ȌȖȗȖȓȕȍȕȐȧ ȐȕȚȍȓȓȍȒȚțȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚȈȘȐȧ ȕȖȊȣȔȐ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȧȔȐ Ȑ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȈȔȐ, ȘȈȏȊȐȊȈȍȔȣȔ Ȋ ȚȖȔ ȟȐșȓȍ Ȑ ȊȖ ȜȘȍȑȔȍ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȣ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȐ Ȑ șȓȖȎȕȖȋȖ ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȧ, Ȋ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȐȚ ȖșȖȏȕȈȕȐȍ ȚȖȋȖ ȜȈȒȚȈ, ȟȚȖ ȋȘȈȕȤ ȔȍȎȌț «ȎȍșȚȒȐȔȐ» ȍșȚȍșȚȊȍȕȕȣȔȐ Ȑ «ȔȧȋȒȐȔȐ» ȋțȔȈȕȐȚȈȘȕȣȔȐ Ȑ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȔȐ ȕȈțȒȈȔȐ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ țșȓȖȊȕȖȑ. ǹ ȌȈȕȕȖȑ ȚȖȟȒȐ ȏȘȍȕȐȧ, ȔȍȎȌȐșȞȐȗȓȐȕȈȘȕȣȑ ȗȖȌȝȖȌ, ȖȗȐȘȈȦȡȐȑșȧ ȕȈ ȕȈțȒț șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ, ȖȉȓȈȌȈȍȚ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȔ ȗȖȚȍȕȞȐȈȓȖȔ Ȍȓȧ ȜȖȘȔțȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ Ȑ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔ Ȋ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȔ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȍ6.

1 Rosȍnau, James N. “States, Sovereignity, and Diplomacy in the Information Age,” A paper prepared for presentation at the Panel on «Virtual Diplomacy: A Revolution in Diplomatic Affair – Theory». Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association (Washington, D.C.: February 18, 1998.

2 Appadurai, Arjun. Modernity at Large: Cultural Dimensions of Globalization. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 1996, pp. 33-37.

3 Rosȍnau, States, Sovereignity, and Diplomacy in the Information Age.

4 Beyerchen, Clausewitz, Nonlinearity, and the Importance of Imagery. 5 Rosȍnau, The Challenges and Tensions of a Globalized World, p. 12.

6 ǹȔ., ȕȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ, Gaddis, John L. “International Relations Theory and the End of the Cold War,” International Security, Vol. 17, Winter, 1992/93, pp. 5-58. 12 January 2011. <http://www.jstor.org/stable/2539129>.

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ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

2. ǷȘȖȞȍșșȣ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȐȏȈȞȐȐ Ȑ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȍ șȘȍȌȣ ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȐ Ȋ 21 ȊȍȒȍ

2.1 ǫȓȖȉȈȓȐȏȈȞȐȧ

ǫȓțȉȐȕȈ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȖȊ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȐȏȈȞȐȐ, ȧȊȓȧȦȡȐȝșȧ ȕȍȖȚȢȍȔȓȍȔȖȑ ȟȈșȚȤȦ ȕȖȊȖȑ ȥȗȖȝȐ, ȕȍ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȍȚ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȚȤ Ȑȝ ȒȈȒ ȐșȒȓȦȟȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȑ ȐȓȐ ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȟȍșȒȐȑ ȜȍȕȖȔȍȕȣ. ǫȓȖȉȈȓȐȏȈȞȐȧ ȊȒȓȦȟȈȍȚ Ȋ șȍȉȧ ȚȈȒȎȍ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȑ Ȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȑ ȈșȗȍȒȚȣ, ȏȈȚȘȈȋȐȊȈȦȡȐȍ, Ȋ ȚȖȑ ȐȓȐ ȐȕȖȑ șȚȍȗȍȕȐ, ȕȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕțȦ Ȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒțȦ șȚȘțȒȚțȘȣ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȈ, ȕȖ Ȑ ȖȚȌȍȓȤȕțȦ ȓȐȟȕȖșȚȤ. ǵȖȊȈȧ ȥȗȖȝȈ ȚȘȈȕșȜȖȘȔȐȘțȍȚ ȐȌȍȕȚȐȟȕȖșȚȤ, Ȕȍȕȧȧ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ Ȗ ȓȐȟȕȖșȚȐ, șȖȞȐțȔȍ Ȑ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȍ1, Ȑ ȍșȓȐ șȚȍȗȍȕȤ ȊȖȊȓȍȟȍȕȕȖșȚȐ ȚȖȋȖ ȐȓȐ ȐȕȖȋȖ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȈ Ȋ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȣ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȐȏȈȞȐȐ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȗȘȍȌȔȍȚȖȔ ȌȐșȒțșșȐȐ, ȚȖ șȈȔȈ ȊȖȊȓȍȟȍȕȕȖșȚȤ țȎȍ ȕȍ ȊȣȏȣȊȈȍȚ șȖȔȕȍȕȐȑ. DzȘȖȔȍ ȚȖȋȖ, ȍșȚȤ ȘȧȌ șȐȔȗȚȖȔȖȊ, șȊȐȌȍȚȍȓȤșȚȊțȦȡȐȝ, ȟȚȖ ȌȈȕȕȣȍ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȣ Ȋ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȖȔ șȔȣșȓȍ ȊȣȠȓȐ Ȑȏ-ȗȖȌ ȒȖȕȚȘȖȓȧ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȈ Ȑ ȧȊȕȖ ȗȘȍȊȣȠȈȦȚ șȗȖșȖȉȕȖșȚȤ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȈ ȒȖȕȚȘȖȓȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȐȓȐ ȕȈȗȘȈȊȓȧȚȤ Ȑȝ. ǫȓȖȉȈȓȐȏȈȞȐȧ Ȋșȍ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȖșȚȈȊȓȧȍȚ ȊȗȍȟȈȚȓȍȕȐȍ șȈȔȖȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖȋȖ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȈ, ȐȔȍȦȡȍȋȖ șȊȖȦ ȊȕțȚȘȍȕȕȦȦ ȓȖȋȐȒț Ȑ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȒț, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ ȚȧȎȍȓȖ ȗȖȌȌȈȍȚșȧ ȒȖȕȚȘȖȓȦ Ȑ ȚȍȔ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȕȈȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȦ. ǹȒȖȘȍȍ ȕȈȖȉȖȘȖȚ: ȗȘȖȞȍșșȣ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȐȏȈȞȐȐ ȊȣȕțȎȌȈȦȚ ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȒȐ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊ Ȑ șȈȔȖ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȖ, ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȖ Ȋ ȞȍȓȖȔ ȐȏȔȍȕȧȚȤșȧ, ȈȌȈȗȚȐȘțȧșȤ Ȓ ȕȍȗȘȍȘȣȊȕȖ ȐȏȔȍȕȧȦȡȍȔțșȧ ȔȐȘț.

ǷȖȘȖȑ ȗȖȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ șȖȉȓȈȏȕ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȐȚȤ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȣ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȐȏȈȞȐȐ ȒȈȒ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚ șȖȏȕȈȚȍȓȤȕȖȑ Ȑ ȞȍȓȍȕȈȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȕȖȑ ȌȍȧȚȍȓȤȕȖșȚȐ ǯȈȗȈȌȈ, ȘȍȈȓȐȏțȦȡȍȋȖ ȕȍȒȐȑ ȉȖȓȤȠȖȑ ȗȘȖȍȒȚ. ǷȘȐȟȍȔ ȚȈȒȖȑ ȗȖȌȝȖȌ ȔȖȎȕȖ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȈȚȤ ȕȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ Ȋ șȚȘȈȕȈȝ ȚȘȍȚȤȍȋȖ ȔȐȘȈ, Ȋ ǰșȓȈȔșȒȖȔ ȔȐȘȍ, ȕȖ Ȑ ȕȈ șȈȔȖȔ ǯȈȗȈȌȍ. ǰșȚȖȘȐȒ ǺȖȕȐ ǬȎȈȌȚ (Tony Judt) Ȋ ȔȖȕȖȋȘȈȜȐȐ «ǷȖșȓȍ ȊȖȑȕȣ», ȗȖșȊȧȡȍȕȕȖȑ ȐșȚȖȘȐȐ ǭȊȘȖȗȣ ȗȖșȓȍ 1945 ȋȖȌȈ, ȗȐȠȍȚ: «ǵȈ ȏȈȘȍ 21-ȋȖ șȚȖȓȍȚȐȧ ǭȊȘȖȗȈ ȧȊȓȧȍȚ șȖȉȖȑ ȐȌȍȈȓȤȕȣȑ ȖȉȘȈȏȍȞ ȔȍȎȌțȕȈȘȖȌȕȣȝ ȌȖȉȘȖȌȍȚȍȓȍȑ: ȥȚȖ șȖȖȉȡȍșȚȊȖ, ȖșȕȖȊȈȕȕȖȍ ȕȈ ȞȍȕȕȖșȚȧȝ <…> ȗȘȐȔȍȘ Ȍȓȧ ȗȖȌȘȈȎȈȕȐȧ, ȕȈ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ ȖȘȐȍȕȚȐȘțȦȚșȧ ȒȈȒ șȈȔȐ ȍȊȘȖȗȍȑȞȣ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȎȐȚȍȓȐ ȌȘțȋȐȝ ȒȖȕȚȐȕȍȕȚȖȊ»2. ǷȘȐȟȍȔ ȚȈȒȈȧ ȘȍȗțȚȈȞȐȧ, șȖȋȓȈșȕȖ ǬȎȈȌȚț, ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ «ȊȗȖȓȕȍ ȏȈșȓțȎȍȕȕȖȑ». ǹȝȖȌȕȖȍ ȊȐȌȍȕȐȍ ȔȐȘȈ ȔȖȎȕȖ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȈȚȤ Ȑ ț ȐȌȍȖȓȖȋȖȊ ȈȕȋȓȐȑșȒȐȝ «ȕȖȊȣȝ ȓȍȑȉȖȘȐșȚȖȊ». Ǫ șȊȖȍȔ ȔȈȕȐȜȍșȚȍ «ǷȖȟȍ-

1 Vlahos, Michael. “Fighting Identity: Why We Are Losing Our Wars,” Military Review, Vol. 87, No. 6,NovemberDecember, 2007, pp. 2-12. 12 January 2011. http://usacac.leavenworth.army.mil/CAC/milreview/English/NovDec07/ VlahosEngNovDec07.pdf.

2 Judt, Tony. Postwar: A History of Europe Since 1945. New York: Penguin Press, 2005.

ǾȐȚȐȘțȍȚșȧ ȗȖ: ǨȕȌȍȘșȖȕ Ƿ., ǰȏȖȉȘȈȎȈȧ ǭȊȘȖȗț, ǸțșșȒȐȑ ȎțȘȕȈȓ, ǶȒȚȧȉȘȤ 2007. 12 January 2011. http:// www.russ.ru/avtory/Anderson-Perri.

ǶȘȐȋȐȕȈȓ șȚȈȚȤȐ: Anderson, Perry. “Depicting Europe,” in London Review of Book (LRB), 20 September 2007. 12 January 2011. <http://www.lrb.co.uk/v29/n18/perry-anderson/depicting-europe>.

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ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

Ȕț ǭȊȘȖȗȈ ȉțȌȍȚ țȗȘȈȊȓȧȚȤ 21-Ȕ șȚȖȓȍȚȐȍȔ»1 ǴȈȘȒ dzȍȖȕȈȘȌ (Mark Leonard), ȗȐȠȍȚ: «ǷȘȍȌșȚȈȊȤȚȍ șȍȉȍ ȔȐȘ, ȋȌȍ ȞȈȘȧȚ șȗȖȒȖȑșȚȊȐȍ, ȗȘȖȞȊȍȚȈȕȐȍ Ȑ ȌȍȔȖȒȘȈȚȐȧ. <…> ǺȖ, ȟȚȖ ȧ ȗȘȍȌȓȖȎȐȓ ȊȈȔ ȊȖȖȉȘȈȏȐȚȤ, – ȥȚȖ “ǵȖȊȖȍ ȍȊȘȖȗȍȑșȒȖȍ șȚȖȓȍȚȐȍ” <…> ǭȊȘȖȗȈ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȍȚ șȖȉȖȑ șȐȕȚȍȏ ȌȊțȝ ȕȈȟȈȓ: ȌȐȕȈȔȐȏȔȈ șȊȖȉȖȌȣ, ȗȘȖȐșȚȍȒȈȦȡȍȋȖ Ȑȏ ȓȐȉȍȘȈȓȐȏȔȈ, Ȑ ȉȓȈȋȖșȖșȚȖȧȕȐȧ, ȗȘȖȐșȚȍȒȈȦȡȍȋȖ Ȑȏ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȌȍȔȖȒȘȈȚȐȐ. ǷȖ ȔȍȘȍ ȚȖȋȖ ȒȈȒ ȔȐȘ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȉȖȋȈȟȍ Ȑ ȐȌȍȚ ȌȈȓȤȠȍ ȗȘȖșȚȖȋȖ țȌȖȊȓȍȚȊȖȘȍȕȐȧ ȗȍȘȊȐȟȕȣȝ ȕțȎȌ: țȚȖȓȍȕȐȧ ȋȖȓȖȌȈ Ȑ ȖȝȘȈȕȣ ȏȌȖȘȖȊȤȧ – ȍȊȘȖȗȍȑșȒȐȑ ȖȉȘȈȏ ȎȐȏȕȐ ȉțȌȍȚ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚȤșȧ Ȋșȍ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȕȍȖȚȘȈȏȐȔȣȔ». ǰ ȌȈȓȍȍ: «ǷȖ ȔȍȘȍ ȚȖȋȖ ȒȈȒ ǰȕȌȐȧ, ǩȘȈȏȐȓȐȧ, ȆȎȕȈȧ ǨȜȘȐȒȈ Ȑ ȖșȖȉȍȕȕȖ DzȐȚȈȑ ȘȈȏȊȐȊȈȦȚșȧ ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȟȍșȒȐ Ȑ ȊȣȘȈȎȈȦȚ șȍȉȧ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐ, ȍȊȘȖȗȍȑșȒȈȧ ȔȖȌȍȓȤ ȉțȌȍȚ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚȤșȧ Ȋșȍ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȗȘȐȊȓȍȒȈȚȍȓȤȕȖȑ ȜȖȘȔȖȑ țȒȘȍȗȓȍȕȐȧ ȉȓȈȋȖșȖșȚȖȧȕȐȧ Ȑ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȍȕȐȧ ȥȚȐȝ șȚȘȈȕ. ǶȕȐ ȗȘȐșȖȍȌȐȕȧȚșȧ Ȓ ǭȊȘȖșȖȦȏț Ȋ ȗȖșȚȘȖȍȕȐȐ “ǵȖȊȖȋȖ ȍȊȘȖȗȍȑșȒȖȋȖ șȚȖȓȍȚȐȧ”».

ǶȌȕȈȒȖ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȖșȚȤ ȊȣȋȓȧȌȐȚ ȕȍșȒȖȓȤȒȖ ȐȕȈȟȍ. ǭșȓȐ ȉȣ ȘȍȟȤ ȠȓȈ Ȗ șȖȏȕȈȚȍȓȤȕȖȑ ȌȍȧȚȍȓȤȕȖșȚȐ Ȑ ȗȘȖȍȒȚȍ, ȚȖ ȒȈȒ șȚȐȔțȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȖȊ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȐȏȈȞȐȐ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȍ ȐȔ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȓȈșȤ ȉȣ ȋȖȘȈȏȌȖ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȗȘȖșȚȖȑ ȏȈȌȈȟȍȑ. ǵȈ șȈȔȖȔ Ȍȍȓȍ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȐȏȈȞȐȧ ȖȉȓȈȌȈȍȚ șȖȉșȚȊȍȕȕȖȑ ȓȖȋȐȒȖȑ Ȑ ȟȍȘȗȈȍȚ șȐȓȣ ȕȍȗȖșȘȍȌșȚȊȍȕȕȖ Ȋ șȈȔȖȔ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȍ, ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȧȝ, șȖȏȌȈȦȡȐȝ ȕȖȊțȦ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȖșȚȤ, ș ȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ ȗȘȐȝȖȌȐȚșȧ șȟȐȚȈȚȤșȧ ȒȈȒ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ șȜȍȘȍ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȊșȍȔ ȌȘțȋȐȔ ȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȣȔ șȖșȚȈȊȓȧȦȡȐȔ ȊȓȈșȚȐ Ȑ șȖȞȐțȔț Ȋ ȞȍȓȖȔ. ǯȈȘȖȌȐȊȠȐșȤ Ȑ șȚȈȊ șȈȔȖȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖȑ, ȋȓȖȉȈȓȐȏȈȞȐȧ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚ Ȓ ȉțȘȕȖȔț ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȦ Ȑ ȕȍȗȘȍȘȣȊȕȖȔț țșȓȖȎȕȍȕȐȦ ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȟȍșȒȖȑ șȜȍȘȣ. DzȈȒ șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍ, Ȋșȍ ȉȖȓȍȍ Ȑ ȉȖȓȍȍ țșȓȖȎȕȧȍȚșȧ șȐșȚȍȔȈ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȘȍȋțȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ Ȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȈȧ șȜȍȘȈ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȈ, ȟȚȖ, Ȋ șȊȖȦ ȖȟȍȘȍȌȤ, ȕȍȐȏȉȍȎȕȖ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚ ȊȓȐȧȕȐȍ ȕȈ ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȒț Ȑ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕțȦ șȜȍȘț. ǶȉȡȍșȚȊȖ Ȋ 21 ȊȍȒȍ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȊȐȌȍ șȓȖȎȕȖȑ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ș ȔȕȖȋȖȟȐșȓȍȕȕȣȔȐ ȖȉȘȈȚȕȣȔȐ șȊȧȏȧȔȐ, Ȋ ȗȘȧȔȖȑ ȞȍȗȐ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ ȕȈȝȖȌȐȚșȧ ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȟȍșȒȈȧ șȜȍȘȈ, ȕȖ ȕȍ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȈ Ȑ, ȚȍȔ ȉȖȓȍȍ, ȕȍ ȐȌȍȖȓȖȋȐȧ. ǷȖșȓȍȌȕȐȍ ȗȣȚȈȦȚșȧ ȊȣȗȖȓȕȧȚȤ ȘȖȓȤ ȘȍȋțȓȧȚȖȘȖȊ, ȕȖ ȕȐȒȈȒ ȕȍ ȐȕȐȞȐȈȚȖȘȖȊ ȘȈȏȊȖȘȈȟȐȊȈȦȡȐȝșȧ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȖȊ. ǷȘȖȞȍșșȣ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȖȔ, ȘȍȋțȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖȑ ȎȐȏȕȐ Ȑ ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȒȐ ȕȈ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȣȝ ȔȍȝȈȕȐȏȔȖȊ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȦȚșȧ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ «ȌȖȋȖȕȧȦȡȐȝ», ȗȣȚȈȦȡȐȝșȧ «ȖȉțȏȌȈȚȤ» Ȋșȍ ȊȘȍȔȧ țȉȍȋȈȦȡțȦ ȊȗȍȘȍȌ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȐȏȈȞȐȦ.

Ǫ ȕȈșȚȖȧȡȍȍ ȊȘȍȔȧ ȔȖȎȕȖ ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ ȟȍȚȒȖ ȊȣȌȍȓȐȚȤ ȌȊȈ ȊȍȒȚȖȘȈ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȧ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȖȊ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȐȏȈȞȐȐ. ǷȍȘȊȣȑ șȊȧȏȈȕ ș ȘȍȈȓȤȕȣȔ ȗȖȧȊȓȍȕȐȍȔ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȖȕȕȣȝ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊ, ȖȚȕȖșȧȡȐȝșȧ Ȓ ȞȐȊȐȓȐȏȈȞȐȐ ȚȘȍȚȤȍȑ ȊȖȓȕȣ2, Ȉ ȊȚȖȘȖȑ – ȥȚȖ ȕȍțȔȖȓȐȔȖȍ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȍ ȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȣȝ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ Ȑ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊ3. ǰ ȍșȓȐ ȗȍȘȊȣȑ

1 Leonard, Mark. Why Europe Will Run the 21st Century. London: Fourth Estate, 2005.

ǾȐȚȐȘțȍȚșȧ ȗȖ: ǨȕȌȍȘșȖȕ Ƿ., ǰȏȖȉȘȈȎȈȧ ǭȊȘȖȗț.

2 Toffler, Alvin and Heidi Toffler. Creating a New Civilization: The Politics of the Third Wave. Atlanta, GA:: Turner Publishing, 1994.

3 Rosȍnau, Disorder and Order in a Turbulent World, pp. 145-169.

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ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȜȍȕȖȔȍȕ ȖȚȕȖșȐȚșȧ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ Ȓ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȣȔ șȚȘȈȕȈȔ, ȚȖ ȊȚȖȘȖȑ ȖȝȊȈȚȐȓ ȗȘȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐ ȊȍșȤ ȏȍȔȕȖȑ ȠȈȘ. ǨȋȘȍșșȐȊȕȖȍ ȊȚȖȘȎȍȕȐȍ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȐȏȈȞȐȐ Ȋ ȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȣȍ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȈ ȕȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȕȍ ȊȣȏȊȈȚȤ ȖȚȊȍȚȕȖȑ ȘȍȈȒȞȐȐ ȕȈ ȠȐȘȖȒȖȔ ȌȐȈȗȈȏȖȕȍ. ǵȍȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ Ȑȏ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊ Ȑ ȒțȓȤȚțȘ, ȚȈȒȐȍ ȒȈȒ ȧȗȖȕșȒȈȧ, ȒȐȚȈȑșȒȈȧ, ȐȕȌȐȑșȒȈȧ, ȈȌȈȗȚȐȘțȦȚșȧ, ȜȖȘȔȐȘțȧ ȖȚȒȓȐȒ ȕȈ ȊȣȏȖȊȣ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȐȏȈȞȐȐ. ǬȘțȋȐȍ, ȕȍ ȊȣȌȍȘȎȈȊ ȕȈȚȐșȒȈ, ȕȈȌȓȈȔȣȊȈȦȚșȧ Ȑ, ȗȖșȚȍȗȍȕȕȖ ȘȈșȚȊȖȘȧȧșȤ, ȈșșȐȔȐȓȐȘțȦȚșȧ Ȋ ȕȖȊȖȔ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȖȔ ȔȐȘȍ, ȚȍȘȧȧ șȊȖȦ șȈȔȖȉȣȚȕȖșȚȤ. ǸȧȌ ȒțȓȤȚțȘ ȊȣȉȐȘȈȦȚ ȗțȚȤ ȈȒȚȐȊȕȖȋȖ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ Ȑ Țȍ ȐȓȐ Ȑȕȣȍ ȜȖȘȔȣ ȌȍșȚȘțȒȚȐȊȕȖȑ Ȑ ȘȈȏȘțȠȈȦȡȍȑ ȘȍȈȒȞȐȐ. ǰșȓȈȔșȒȐȑ ȔȐȘ Ȑ ȐșȓȈȔșȒȐȑ ȚȍȘȘȖȘȐȏȔ, Ȋ ȚȖȔ ȊȐȌȍ, Ȋ ȒȈȒȖȔ Ȗȕ ȗȘȖȧȊȐȓșȧ Ȋ 21 ȊȍȒȍ, ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȖȌȕȖȑ Ȑȏ ȔȈȕȐȜȍșȚȈȞȐȑ ȚȈȒȖȑ ȘȍȈȒȞȐȐ Ȑ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔ, ș ȒȖȚȖȘȣȔȐ ȉțȌȍȚ șȚȈȓȒȐȊȈȚȤșȧȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȣȑ ȔȐȘ1.

ǵȖȊȣȍ țȋȘȖȏȣ ȜȖȘȔȐȘțȦȡȍȔțșȧ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȖȔț ȔȐȘț Ȑ șțȡȍșȚȊțȦȡȍȑ ȔȐȘȖȊȖȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȍ ȔȖȋțȚ ȐșȝȖȌȐȚȤ Ȑ ȖȚ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊ, șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȝ, ȋȘțȗȗ

ȐȓȐȟȕȖșȚȍȑ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ șȖȏȕȈȚȍȓȤȕȖ ȐȓȐ ȕȍȖșȖȏȕȈȕȕȖ ȊȣȒȓȦȟȈȦȚșȧ Ȑȏ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȖȊ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȐȏȈȞȐȐ2. ǶȗȣȚ ǹȍȊȍȘȕȖȑ DzȖȘȍȐ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȍȚ țȊȐȌȍȚȤ, ȒȈȒ ȐȏȖȓȧȞȐȧ ȐȓȐ șȈȔȖȐȏȖȓȧȞȐȧ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȈ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚ Ȓ Ȋșȍ ȉȖȓȤȠȍȔț ȖȚȘȣȊț ȖȚ ȔȐȘȈ, ȗȘȍȊȘȈȡȈȧ ȏȈȌȈȟț ȊȖȏȊȘȈȡȍȕȐȧ Ȋ ȖȚȌȍȓȤȕțȦ Ȑ ȌȖȊȖȓȤȕȖ ȉȖȓȍȏȕȍȕȕțȦ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔț. ǷȈȘȈȌȖȒș ȋȓȖȉȈȓȐȏȈȞȐȐ ȏȈȒȓȦȟȈȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȚȖȔ, ȟȚȖ, ȖȉȢȍȌȐȕȧȧ Ȑ ȌȍȓȈȧ ȔȐȘ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȗȘȖȏȘȈȟȕȣȔ

ȐȖȚȒȘȣȚȣȔ, ȖȕȈ ȗȘȍȌȖșȚȈȊȓȧȍȚ Ȋ ȘțȒȐ ȖȚȌȍȓȤȕȣȝ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȋȘțȗȗ ȐȓȐ ȌȈȎȍ ȓȐȟȕȖșȚȍȑ ȗȘȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐ ȕȍȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȕȣȍ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȖȊȈȚȤ ȕȈ ȕȍȍ. ǹȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȋȘțȗȗȣ șȍȋȖȌȕȧ ȔȖȋțȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȚȘȈȕșȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȔȐ Ȑ ȌȈȎȍ ȊȐȘȚțȈȓȤȕȣȔȐ, ȗȖȌȌȍȘȎȐȊȈȦȡȐȔȐ șȊȖȦ ȐȌȍȕȚȐȟȕȖșȚȤ ȗȘȐ ȗȖȔȖȡȐ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȖȑ șȍȚȐ. ǵȈȐȉȖȓȤȠȐȑ ȊȣȏȖȊ ȕȍșțȚ ș șȖȉȖȑ șȖȖȉȡȍșȚȊȈ, ȖșȚȈȦȡȐȍșȧ ȓȖȒȈȓȤȕȣȔȐ ȗȖ șȊȖȐȔ ȞȍȕȕȖșȚȕȣȔ ȒȘȐȚȍȘȐȧȔȐ Ȑ, Ȋ ȚȖ Ȏȍ ȊȘȍȔȧ, ȊȒȓȦȟȍȕȕȣȍ Ȋ ȔȐȘȖȊȖȍ șȖȖȉȡȍșȚȊȖ Ȑ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȦȡȐȍ ȍȋȖ ȗȘȍȐȔțȡȍșȚȊȈ3. ǶȚȒȘȣȚȖșȚȤ ȕȍȐȏȉȍȎȕȖ ȕȍșȍȚ ș șȖȉȖȑ Ȑ ȕȖȊȣȍ, ȉȖȓȍȍ ȚȖȕȒȐȍ țȋȘȖȏȣ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȦȚșȧ Ȋȕȍ ȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȐ. ǹțȡȍșȚȊțȦȡȐȍ ȔȍȚȖȌȖȓȖȋȐȐ Ȑ ȔȍȚȘȐȒȐ ȖȞȍȕȒȐ ȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȍȑ Ȑ țȋȘȖȏ, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȡȐȍ ȌȈȚȤ ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕțȦ ȖȞȍȕȒț ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȐ Țȍȝ ȐȓȐ Ȑȕȣȝ ȔȍȘȖȗȘȐȧȚȐȑ, ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȦȚșȧ ȕȍȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȣȔȐ ȐȓȐ ȗȘȖșȚȖ ȕȍȈȌȍȒȊȈȚȕȣȔȐ ȜȖȘȔȐȘțȦȡȍȑșȧ ȕȖȊȖȑȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȖȑ șȘȍȌȍ 21 ȊȍȒȈ.

1 ǵȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ, ǨȓȤȉȍȘȚ ǫțȘȈȕȐ (Albert Hourani) ȖȗȐșȣȊȈȍȚ ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȟȍșȒțȦ, ȘȍȓȐȋȐȖȏȕțȦ Ȑ ȒțȓȤȚțȘȕțȦ ȘȍȈȒȞȐȦ ǨȘȈȉșȒȖȋȖ ȔȐȘȈ ȕȈ ȊȚȖȘȋȈȦȡțȦșȧ ȏȈȗȈȌȕțȦ ȒțȓȤȚțȘț. Ƕȕ, Ȋ ȟȈșȚȕȖșȚȐ, șșȣȓȈȍȚșȧ ȕȈ ǹȈȐȌȈ DzțȚȉȈ (Sayyid Qutb), ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ ȍȡȍ Ȋ 1964ȋ. ȗȘȐȏȣȊȈȓ Ȓ ȌȎȐȝȈȌț «ȕȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ Ȍȓȧ ȏȈȡȐȚȣ, ȕȖ Ȑ Ȍȓȧ ȘȈȏȘțȠȍȕȐȧ ȓȖȎȕȣȝ ȉȖȋȖȊ Ȑ țȉȐȘȈȕȐȧ Ȋșȍȝ ȗȘȍȋȘȈȌ, ȔȍȠȈȦȡȐȝ ȓȦȌȧȔ ȗȘȐȕȧȚȤ ǰșȓȈȔ». Hourani, Albert. A History of the Arab Peoples. Cambridge: Belknap/Harvard Press, 1991, pp. 445-446.

2 Cebrowski, Arthur K. “Transformation and the Changing Character of War?” Transformation Trends, 17 June 2004, p. 1. 12 January 2011. http://www.oft.osd.mil/library/library_files/trends_370_Transformation%20Trends-17% 20June%202004%20Issue.pdf.

3 Vlahos, Fighting Identity: Why We Are Losing Our Wars.

94

ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

2.2ǰȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȍ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȖ Ȑ șȘȍȌȈ ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȐ 21 ȊȍȒȈ

ǪșȊȖȍ ȊȘȍȔȧ ǨȓȤȜȘȍȌ Ǵȥȝȥȕ (Alfred Mahan) ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȐȓ ȖȚȒȘȣȚȖȍ ȔȖȘȍ, ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȊȈȦȡȍȍ ȔȍȎȌțȕȈȘȖȌȕțȦ ȚȖȘȋȖȊȓȦ Ȑ ȒȖȔȔțȕȐȒȈȞȐȐ, ȒȈȒ «Ȗȉȡȍȍ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȖ» (a wide common)1. ǵȈȘȖȌȣ Ȑ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȈ șȚȘȍȔȐȓȐșȤ ȗȖȓțȟȐȚȤ ȐȓȐ țȓțȟȠȐȚȤ ȊȣȝȖȌ Ȓ ȔȖȘȦ, ȚȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȐȔȍȕȕȖ ȌȈȕȕȣȑ ȜȈȒȚȖȘ ȧȊȓȧȓșȧ ȖșȕȖȊȖȑ ȒȖȕȒțȘȍȕȚȖșȗȖșȖȉȕȖșȚȐ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȈ, șȖȏȌȈȊȈȓ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȣȍ ȗȘȍȌȗȖșȣȓȒȐ Ȍȓȧ ȗȖȓțȟȍȕȐȧ ȘȍȋȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȐȓȐ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȗȘȍȐȔțȡȍșȚȊȈ. ǪȖ ȔȕȖȋȖȔ ȐȔȍȕȕȖ ȌȖșȚțȗ Ȓ ȔȖȘȦ Ȑ ȔȍȎȌțȕȈȘȖȌȕȣȔ ȚȖȘȋȖȊȣȔ ȒȖȔȔțȕȐȒȈȞȐȧȔ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȓșȧ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȣȔ țșȓȖȊȐȍȔ țșȗȍȠȕȖȋȖ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȧ șȚȘȈȕȣ, Ȑ ȟȍȘȍȏ ȊȖșȗȘȍȗȧȚșȚȊȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȚȈȒȖȔț ȊȣȝȖȌț ȐȓȐ ȍȋȖ ȒȖȕȚȘȖȓȤ ȔȐȘȖȊȣȍ ȞȍȕȚȘȣ ȊȓȈșȚȐ ȘȍȠȈȓȐ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔț ȉȈȓȈȕșȈ șȐȓ ȕȈ ȔȐȘȖȊȖȑ ȐȓȐ ȘȍȋȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȈȘȍȕȈȝ. DzȖȕȚȘȖȓȤ ȌȈȕȕȖȋȖ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȈ ȜȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐ ȉȣȓ ȘȈȊȕȖșȐȓȍȕ «ȊȓȈȌȍȕȐȦ ȔȖȘȍȔ»2. Ǵȥȝȥȕ ȕȍ șȔȖȋ ȗȘȍȌțȋȈȌȈȚȤ ȖșȊȖȍȕȐȍ ȊȖȏȌțȠȕȖȋȖ Ȑ ȒȖșȔȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȈ, ȕȖ, șȒȖȘȍȍ ȊșȍȋȖ, Ȗȕ șȖȋȓȈșȐȓșȧ ȉȣ ș ȘȈșȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕȍȕȐȍȔ șȊȖȍȑ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȐ ȕȈȊȖȏȌțȠȕțȦșȘȍȌțȐȒȖșȔȖș3.

Ǫ21 ȊȍȒȍ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȈȍȚșȧ ȜȖȘȔȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȕȖȊȖȑ șȘȍȌȣ Ȑ țȎȍ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȋȖ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȈ, șȚȘȍȔȧȡȍȋȖșȧ ȊȏȧȚȤ ȕȈ șȍȉȧ ȟȈșȚȐȟȕȖ ȐȓȐ ȌȈȎȍ ȗȖȓȕȖșȚȤȦ ȜțȕȒȞȐȐ, ȕȈ ȗȘȖȚȧȎȍȕȐȐ ȔȕȖȋȐȝ ȊȍȒȖȊ ȗȘȐȕȈȌȓȍȎȈȊȠȐȍ ȔȖȘȦ. ǷȘȐ ȥȚȖȔ ȘȍȟȤ ȐȌȍȚ ȕȍ ȗȘȖșȚȖ Ȗȉ ǰȕȚȍȘȕȍȚȍ, ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȝ Ȑ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȖȕȕȣȝ ȐȕȜȘȈșȚȘțȒȚțȘȈȝ. ǵȖȊȈȧ șȘȍȌȈ ȊȒȓȦȟȈȍȚ ȌȖȔȍȕȣ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȐ Ȑ ȒȖȋȕȐȞȐȐ, ȖȗȐȘȈȧșȤ ȕȈ ȊșȦ ȔȍȌȐȑȕțȦ șȘȍȌț, Ȉ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȜȐȕȈȕșȖȊțȦ șȜȍȘț4. ǻ ȕȖȊȖȋȖ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȈ ȔȕȖȋȖ ȖȉȡȍȋȖ ș ȗȘȍȌȠȍșȚȊțȦȡȐȔ, Ȑ ȖȕȖ țȎȍ șȚȈȓȖ ȔȍȎȌțȕȈȘȖȌȕȣȔ ȌȖȔȍȕȖȔ ȚȖȘȋȖȊȓȐ Ȑ ȒȖȔȔțȕȐȒȈȞȐȐ, ȊȓȐȧȧ ȕȈ ȗȖȏȐȞȐȐ șȚȘȈȕȣ Ȋ ȔȐȘȖȊȖȑ ȊȓȈșȚȕȖȑ ȐȍȘȈȘȝȐȐ. ǰȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȍ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȖ ȗȘȖȟȕȖ ȏȈȕȧȓȖ ȔȍșȚȖ șȗȐșȒȍ ȉȈȏȖȊȣȝ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȖȊ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȔȖȡȐ5. ǻșȐȓȍȕȐȍ ȗȖȏȐȞȐȐ șȚȘȈȕȣ Ȋ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈ-

1 Posen, Barry R. “Command of the Commons: The Military Foundation of U.S. Hegemony,” International Security, Vol. 28, No. 1, Summer 2003, pp. 5-46. 12 January 2011.

http://www.belfercenter.org/files/posen_summer_2003.pdf.

2 ǺȍȘȔȐȕ «ȋȖșȗȖȌșȚȊȖ ȕȈ ȔȖȘȍ» (command of the sea) ȊȊȍȓ Ȋ ȠȐȘȖȒȐȑ ȖȉȖȘȖȚ ǷȖȓ DzȍȕȕȍȌȐ (Paul Kennedy) Ȋ ȘȈȉȖȚȍ

Kennedy, Paul M. The Rise and Fall of British Naval Mastery. London: MacMillan, 1983.

3 ǬȐșȒțșșȐȦ ȗȖ ȌȈȕȕȖȔț ȗȖȊȖȌț ȔȖȎȕȖ ȕȈȑȚȐ Ȋ: Posen, Command of the Commons: The Military Foundation of U.S. Hegemony.

4 Cebrowski, Transformation and the Changing Character of War, pp. 7-8.

5 ǪȖȍȕȕȈȧ ȌȖȒȚȘȐȕȈ ǹȀǨ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȈȍȚ ȟȍȚȣȘȍ ȒȈȚȍȋȖȘȐȐ ȔȖȡȐ, ȐȔȍȦȡȐȍșȧ Ȋ ȘȈșȗȖȘȧȎȍȕȐȐ ȕȈȞȐȐ: ȌȐȗȓȖȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒțȦ, ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȖȕȕțȦ, ȊȖȍȕȕțȦ Ȑ ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȟȍșȒțȦ (ȟȈșȚȖ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȍȚșȧ ȈȉȉȘȍȊȐȈȚțȘȈ DIME (diplomatic, informational, military, and economic power)). ǬȖ ȗȖșȓȍȌȕȍȋȖ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ ȖȚȌȍȓȤȕȖȑ ȒȈȚȍȋȖȘȐȐ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȓȈșȤ Ȑ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȖ-ȗșȐȝȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȈȧ ȔȖȡȤ, Ȉ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȈȧ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȖȉȢȍȌȐȕȍȕȣ Ȋ ȕȈșȚȖȧȡȍȍ ȊȘȍȔȧ ș ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȑ Ȑ ȌȐȗȓȖȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ, ȟȚȖ ȕȍ șȖȊșȍȔ ȗȘȈȊȖȔȍȘȕȖ. ǹȔ. Bartholomees, J. Boone Jr. “A Survey of the Theory of Strategy,” in Bartholomees, J. Boone Jr., (ed.) U.S. Army War College Guide to National Security Policy and Strategy, 4th edition Revised and Expanded, Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute (SSI), US Army War College, Vol. I, July 27, 2010, p. 18.

Ǫ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȧȝ Ȑ ȌȖȒțȔȍȕȚȈȝ ǹȀǨ ȔȖȎȕȖ ȊșȚȘȍȚȐȚȤ Ȑ ȌȘțȋȐȍ, Ȕȍȕȍȍ ȘȈșȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕȍȕȕȣȍ, ȈȉȉȘȍȊȐȈȚțȘȣ, ȚȈȒȐȍ ȒȈȒ DIMEFIL (Diplomatic, Information, Military, Economic, Financial, Intelligence, and Law Enforcement), MIDLIFE (Military, Intelligence, Diplomacy, Legal, Information, Financial, and Economic power). ǵȦȈȕșȣ ȚȖȑ ȐȓȐ ȐȕȖȑ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ șȊȧȏȈȕȣ ș ȖȞȍȕȒȈȔȐ ȗȘȈȊȖȔȍȘȕȖșȚȐ ȗȘȐȊȓȍȟȍȕȐȧ șȜȍȘȣ Ȓ țȘȈȊȕȍȕȐȦ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȔȖȡȐ, ȟȚȖ șȓȍȌțȍȚ ȗȘȐȏȕȈȚȤ ȊȚȖȘȐȟȕȣȔ Ȑ ȕȍȊȈȎȕȣȔ ȕȈ ȜȖȕȍ ȖșȕȖȊȕȖȋȖ ȊȣȊȖȌȈ, ȟȚȖ Ȋ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȖȔ 21 ȊȍȒȍ ȊȖȍȕȕȈȧ ȔȖȡȤ ȗȍȘȍșȚȈȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ultima ratio ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȈ. ǹȔ. Nation, R. Craig. “National Power,” in Bartholomees, J. Boone Jr., (ed.) U.S. Army War College Guide to National Security Policy and Strategy, 4th edition Revised and Expanded, Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute (SSI), US Army War College, Vol. I, July 27, 2010, p. 143.

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ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȞȐȖȕȕȖȔ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȍ țȊȍȓȐȟȐȊȈȍȚ țȌȍȓȤȕȣȑ Ȋȍș ȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȣȝ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȖȊ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȔȖȡȐ – ȌȐȗȓȖȔȈȚȐȐ, ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ, ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȟȍșȒȖȑ șȜȍȘ.

ǶȌȕȈȒȖ ȕȖȊȈȧ șȘȍȌȈ ȐȔȍȍȚ Ȑ ȊȈȎȕȣȍ ȖȚȓȐȟȐȧ. Ǫ ȗȍȘȊțȦ ȖȟȍȘȍȌȤ, ȥȚȖ ȒȈșȈȍȚșȧ șȚȖȐȔȖșȚȐ ȌȖșȚțȗȈ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ȕȍșȘȈȊȕȍȕȕȖ ȕȐȎȍ, ȟȍȔ ț ȔȖȘȧ. DzȘȖȔȍ ȚȖȋȖ, ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȍ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȖ ȊȖ ȔȕȖȋȖȔ ȒȖȕȚȘȖȓȐȘțȍȚșȧ ȕȍ ȕȈȞȐȧȔȐ ȐȓȐ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȈȔȐ, ȕȖ ȒȖȘȗȖȘȈȞȐȧȔȐ, ȐȕșȚȐȚțȚȈȔȐ Ȑ ȌȈȎȍ ȖȚȌȍȓȤȕȣȔȐ ȓȐȟȕȖșȚȧȔȐ. ǰ, ȍșȓȐ ȔȖȘșȒȖȍ Ȑ ȊȖȏȌțȠȕȖȍ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȈ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȦȚșȧ Ȑ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȐȊȈȦȚșȧ șȖȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊțȦȡȍȑ ȜȐȏȐȟȍșȒȖȑ șȘȍȌȖȑ, ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȍ ȕȍ ȐȔȍȍȚ ȘȈȏȔȍȘȕȖșȚȐ Ȑ ȘȈșȠȐȘȧȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȋȍȖȔȍȚȘȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȗȘȖȋȘȍșșȐȐ, ȗȘȐȟȍȔ ȥȚȖȚ ȘȖșȚ ȔȈȓȖ șȊȧȏȈȕ ș ȒȈȒȐȔȐ-ȓȐȉȖ ȜȐȏȐȟȍșȒȐȔȐ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȐȧȔȐ ȐȓȐ ȗȘȍȌȍȓȈȔȐ. ǰ, ȕȈȒȖȕȍȞ, ȕȍȖȚȢȍȔȓȍȔȖȑ ȟȈșȚȤȦ ȕȖȊȖȑ șȘȍȌȣ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȟȍșȒȈȧ ȓȐȟȕȖșȚȤ, ȗȘȐȊȕȖșȧȡȈȧ ș șȖȉȖȑ ȒȘȍȈȚȐȊȕȖșȚȤ Ȑ ȒțȓȤȚțȘȕțȦ șȖșȚȈȊȓȧȦȡțȦ. ȅȚȖ ȗȘȍȊȘȈȡȈȍȚ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȍ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȖ Ȋ șȓȖȎȕțȦ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȖȕȕțȦ șȘȍȌț, ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖ ȖȚȓȐȟȈȦȡțȦșȧ ȖȚ ȗȘȍȌȣȌțȡȐȝ1. ǩȖȘȤȉȈ ȏȈ 21 ȊȍȒ Ȑ ȉțȌțȡȍȍ ȘȈȏȊȖȘȈȟȐȊȈȍȚșȧ ȕȈ ȕȍȗȘȍȘȣȊȕȖ ȐȏȔȍȕȧȦȡȍȔșȧ ȓȈȕȌȠȈȜȚȍ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȔȐȘȈ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȘȈȏȕȖȖȉȘȈȏȕȣȍ ȊȣȏȖȊȣ ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȐ ȐșȒȓȦȟȈȦȚ ȗȘȖșȚȣȍ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ. ǿȚȖȉȣ ȖșȚȈȊȈȚȤșȧ ȈȌȍȒȊȈȚȕȣȔȐ, ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖ ȕȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȐȏțȟȈȚȤ ȗȘȐȘȖȌț ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȧȡȐȝ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȑ, ȕȖ Ȑ, ȟȚȖ ȋȖȘȈȏȌȖ ȊȈȎȕȍȍ, ȗȘȐȏȕȈȚȤ, ȟȚȖ șȒȖȘȖșȚȤ ȌȈȕȕȣȝ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȑ ȊȖȏȘȈșȚȈȍȚ, Ȑ ȕȍ șțȡȍșȚȊțȍȚ ȒȈȒȖȑ-ȓȐȉȖ ȖȌȕȖȑ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȖȑ șȐȓȣ ȐȓȐ ȞȍȕȚȘȈ ȊȓȈșȚȐ, șȗȖșȖȉȕȖȋȖ ȒȖȕȚȘȖȓȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȐȓȐȕȈȗȘȈȊȓȧȚȤ ȘȈȏȊȖȘȈȟȐȊȈȦȡȐȍșȧ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȣ.

ǷȖȧȊȓȍȕȐȍ ȕȖȊȖȑ șȘȍȌȣ, ȔȍȕȧȦȡȍȑ țșȓȖȊȐȧ ȒȖȕȒțȘȍȕȞȐȐ Ȑ ȉȖȘȤȉȣ, ȕȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȕȍ șȒȈȏȈȚȤșȧ ȕȈ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ șȜȍȘȍ, ș ȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ ȖȕȈ ȐȔȍȍȚ șȝȖȎȐȍ ȟȍȘȚȣ. ǹȊȧȏȤ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȗȖȉȍȌȣ ȕȈȞȐȐ ș ȗȘȍȌȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȍȔȣȔȐ țșȐȓȐȧȔȐ ȕȍ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȗȘȧȔȖȑ Ȑ ȕȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȊȣȘȈȎȍȕȈ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ Ȋ ȜȐȏȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȚȍȘȔȐȕȈȝ Ȑ ȖȞȍȕȒȈȝ. ǰ, ȒȈȒ Ȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȈȧ ȗȖȉȍȌȈ ȐȓȐ ȗȖȘȈȎȍȕȐȍ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȦȚ ȊȓȐȧȕȐȍ ȕȈ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȖ Ȋ ȞȍȓȖȔ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȗȖȉȍȌȣ ȐȓȐ ȗȖȘȈȎȍȕȐȧ Ȋ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȔ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȍ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȊȓȐȧȦȚ ȕȈ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȣ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȔȖȡȐ Ȑ Ȋșȍ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȖ. ǶȟȍȊȐȌȕȖ, ȟȚȖ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȍ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȖ ȕȍ ȖȚȔȍȕȧȍȚ ȉȖȘȤȉȣ Ȋ ȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȣȝ șȜȍȘȈȝ, ȕȖ ȖȕȈ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȗȖȊȓȐȧȚȤ Ȑ ȊȓȐȧȍȚ ȕȈ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȤ ȌȈȕȕȖȑ ȉȖȘȤȉȣ Ȑ, șȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȤȕȖ, țșȓȖȊȐȧ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȗȖȉȍȌȣ Ȋ 21 ȊȍȒȍ. ȅȚȖ ȖȏȕȈȟȈȍȚ, ȟȚȖ șȘȍȌȈ ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȐ Ȋ 21 ȊȍȒȍ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖ ȉȖȓȍȍ șȓȖȎȕȖȑ Ȑ ȚȘȍȉțȦȡȍȑ ȖșȔȣșȓȍȕȐȧ.

1 Cebrowski, Transformation and the Changing Character of War, p. 8.

96

III. ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ Ǫ ǹǰǹǺǭǴǭ ǴǭǮǬǻǵǨǸǶǬǵȃǽ ǶǺǵǶȀǭǵǰDZ ǰ ǪǶǭǵǵǶDZ ǹǼǭǸǭ. ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǨȇ ǷǸǰǸǶǬǨ ǪǶDZǵȃ

1.ǷȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȈ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȐ Ȋ șȐșȚȍȔȍ ȔȍȎȌțȕȈȘȖȌȕȣȝ ȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȑ

ǪȖȚȓȐȟȐȍ ȖȚ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȑ, ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȈȧ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȈ ȕȈ șȍȋȖȌȕȧȠȕȐȑ ȌȍȕȤ ȕȍ ȐȔȍȍȚ ȝȖȘȖȠȖ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȈȕȕȖȋȖ ȈȗȗȈȘȈȚȈ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ ȔȖȎȕȖ ȉȣȓȖ ȉȣ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȚȤ Ȍȓȧ ȗȖȓțȟȍȕȐȧ ȒȈȒȐȝ-ȓȐȉȖ ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȣȝ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘȐșȚȐȒ. ǶȌȕȈȒȖ ȞȍȓȤȦ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȣ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȕȍ ȗȖȓțȟȍȕȐȍ ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȣȝ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘȐșȚȐȒ, ȕȖ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȍ ȖȉȡȐȝ ȗȘȐȕȞȐȗȖȊ ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȧ. ǹ ȌȈȕȕȖȑ ȚȖȟȒȐ ȏȘȍȕȐȧ, ȜȖȘȔțȓȐȘȖȊȒȈ ȊȣȏȖȊȖȊ ȜȐȓȖșȖȜȐȐ, ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ Ȑ ȗȘȖȟȐȝ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȝ Ȑ ȋțȔȈȕȐȚȈȘȕȣȝ ȕȈțȒ Ȋ ȚȍȘȔȐȕȈȝ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȣ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȐ Ȑ șȓȖȎȕȖȋȖ ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȧ ȉȍȏ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ șȓȖȎȕȖȋȖ ȔȈȚȍȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȈȗȗȈȘȈȚȈ Ȑ ȜȖȘȔȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȔȍȚȖȌȖȊ Ȑ ȗȘȖȞȍȌțȘ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȊȈȎȕȣȔ ȥȚȈȗȖȔ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȧ, ȚȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ ȕȍȉȖȓȤȠȖȑ ȒȘțȋ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ Ȑ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȍȕȕȣȝ ȌȍȧȚȍȓȍȑ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȚȤ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚȈȘȐȑ ȚȖȟȕȣȝ ȕȈțȒ1. ǹȍȋȖȌȕȧ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȣ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȣ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȐ ȗȘȖȟȕȖ ȊȝȖȌȧȚ Ȋ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȐ ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȐ, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȧ ȗȘȍȖȌȖȓȍȚȤ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȐȧ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȋȖ ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȧ2. Ǫ ȥȚȐȝ țșȓȖȊȐȧȝ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȐ Ȑ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȍȕȕȣȍ ȌȍȧȚȍȓȐ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ țȟȐȚȤșȧ ȘȈȉȖȚȈȚȤ ș ȕȖȊȖȑ ȚȍȘȔȐȕȖȓȖȋȐȍȑ Ȑ ȗȖȕȧȚȐȧȔȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȈȌȍȒȊȈȚȕȣ ȘȍȈȓȐȧȔ șȘȍȌȣ ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȐ 21 ȊȍȒȈ.

ǶȌȕȐȔ Ȑȏ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȍȑ, ȗȘȐȔȍȕȐȊȠȐȝ ȗȖȕȧȚȐȑȕȣȑ ȈȗȗȈȘȈȚ șȓȖȎȕȖȋȖ ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȧ Ȑ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȣ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȐ Ȓ ȐȏțȟȍȕȐȦ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȔȍȎȌțȕȈȘȖȌȕȣȝ ȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȑ, ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ǸȖȉȍȘȚ ǬȎȍȘȊȐș (Robert Jervis)3. ǬȎȍȘȊȐș ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ țȉȍȌȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ ȗȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚ, ȟȚȖ ȘȈșșȔȖȚȘȍȕȐȍ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȔȍȎȌțȕȈȘȖȌȕȣȝ ȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȑ Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ șȓȖȎȕȖȑ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȚȘȍȉțȍȚ ȗȘȐȕȧȚȐȧ ȊȖ ȊȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ ȕȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ ȈȒȚȖȘȖȊ, ȕȖ Ȑ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȔȍȎȌț ȕȐȔȐ Ȑ șȘȍȌȖȑ. Ƕȕ ȕȍȖȌȕȖȒȘȈȚȕȖ ȗȘȐȉȍȋȈȍȚ Ȓ ȗȖȕȧȚȐȦ șȐșȚȍȔȕȖȋȖ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȈ Ȍȓȧ ȖȉȢȧșȕȍȕȐȧ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȔȍȎȌțȕȈȘȖȌȕȣȝ ȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȑ, ȌȈȊȈȧ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȣȍ ȍȋȖ ȜȖȘȔțȓȐȘȖȊȒȐ, ȒȈȒ ȚȖ: «ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚ ȕȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȕ Ȑȏ ȖȚȌȍȓȤȕȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ», «ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȕȍ ȔȖȋțȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȗȖȕȧȚȣ ȈȌȌȐȚȐȊȕȖ» Ȑ Ț.Ȍ. ǬȎȍȘȊȐș ȗȘȐȝȖȌȐȚ Ȓ ȏȈȒȓȦȟȍȕȐȦ, ȟȚȖ ȊșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍ ȉȖȓȤȠȖȋȖ ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȈ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ ȔȍȎȌț ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȈȔȐ, ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȔȍȎȌțȕȈȘȖȌȕȣȝ ȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȑ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ ȗȖȕȧȚȤ Ȑ ȖȉȢȧșȕȐȚȤ

1 Rosȍnau, Many Dawn Things Simultaneously, pp. 73-100. 2 Czerwinski, Coping with the Bounds, pp. 7-25.

3 Jervis, Robert, System Effects: Complexity in Political and Social Life. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1997.

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ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȟȍȘȍȏ șțȔȔȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘȐșȚȐȒ ȗȖȌșȐșȚȍȔ ȐȓȐ ȈȕȈȓȐȏ ȉȐȓȈȚȍȘȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȑ ȔȍȎȌț ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȈȔȐ, ȚȍȔ șȈȔȣȔ ȐșȒȓȦȟȈȧ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȍ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȝ ȔȖȌȍȓȍȑ1. ǬȖȗȖȓȕȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ ǬȎȍȘȊȐș ȐȌȍȕȚȐȜȐȞȐȘțȍȚ ȚȘȐ ȚȐȗȈ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȔȖȋțȚ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚȤ Ȓ ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȖȔț ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȦ șȐșȚȍȔȣ.

ǷȍȘȊȣȑ ȚȐȗ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ: ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣ ȕȍ ȔȖȋțȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȕȣ Ȑȏ ȖȚȌȍȓȤȕȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ. ǬȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ ȟȈșȚȖ ȔȖȎȕȖ șȚȖȓȒȕțȚȤșȧ ș șȐȚțȈȞȐȍȑ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȒȈȎȌȖȍ Ȑȏ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ, ȖșțȡȍșȚȊȓȍȕȕȖȍ ȗȖ ȖȚȌȍȓȤȕȖșȚȐ, ȕȍ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚ Ȓ ȒȈȒȐȔ-ȓȐȉȖ ȕȍȋȈȚȐȊȕȣȔ ȗȖșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȧȔ, ȖȌȕȈȒȖ Ȑȝ șȖȊȔȍșȚȕȖȍ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȍ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚ ȘȈȏȘțȠȐȚȍȓȤȕȖȍ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȍ ȕȈ șȐșȚȍȔț. ǷȘȐȔȍȘȖȔ ȔȖȎȍȚ șȓțȎȐȚȤ ȕȍșȖȊȔȍșȚȐȔȖșȚȤ ȓȍȒȈȘșȚȊȍȕȕȣȝ ȗȘȍȗȈȘȈȚȖȊ, ȒȈȎȌȣȑ Ȑȏ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȖȉȓȈȌȈȍȚ ȗȖȓȖȎȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȔ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȔ, ȕȖ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȕȣȍ ȊȔȍșȚȍ, ȥȚȐ ȗȘȍȗȈȘȈȚȣ ȊȣȏȣȊȈȦȚ ȚȧȎȍȓȣȍ ȗȖșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȧ. ǬȘțȋȐȔ ȗȘȐȔȍȘȖȔ ȔȖȋțȚ șȓțȎȐȚȤ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ Ȑȏ ȉȣȚȖȊȣȝ ȝȐȔȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȊȍȡȍșȚȊ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ, ȗȖ ȖȚȌȍȓȤȕȖșȚȐ ȉțȌțȟȐ ȕȍȑȚȘȈȓȤȕȣȔȐ, ȔȖȋțȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȣ Ȍȓȧ șȖȏȌȈȕȐȧ ȊȏȘȣȊȟȈȚȣȝ șȔȍșȍȑ.

ǨȕȈȓȖȋȐȟȕȣȍ ȧȊȓȍȕȐȧ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘȕȣ Ȑ Ȍȓȧ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ Ȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ ȖȚȌȍȓȤȕȣȝ ȈȒȚȖȘȖȊ, ȕȍ ȕȍșțȡȐȍ Ȋ șȍȉȍ ȖȚȒȘȣȚȖȑ țȋȘȖȏȣ șȚȈȉȐȓȤȕȖșȚȐ șȐșȚȍȔȣ, ȉțȌțȟȐ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȣ ȖȌȕȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȖ, ȊȣȏȣȊȈȦȚ ȕȍȗȘȍȌȊȐȌȍȕȕȣȑ, Ȉ ȏȈȟȈșȚțȦ Ȑ ȘȈȏȘțȠȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȑ ȥȜȜȍȒȚ. «...ȉȖȓȤȠȈȧ ȟȈșȚȤ șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȝ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȕȈțȒ ȗȖșȚȘȖȍȕȈ ȕȈ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȐ ȚȖȋȖ, ȟȚȖ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȍ Ȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȗȖșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȧ ȕȍ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȗȘȖșȚȖȑ ȈȋȘȍȋȈȞȐȍȑ ȗȘȍȌȗȖȟȚȍȕȐȑ ȈȒȚȖȘȖȊ. ǪȖȏȔȖȎȕȣ ȊȍșȤȔȈ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȣȍ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣ, ȏȈȊȐșȧȡȐȍ ȖȚ ȚȖȋȖ, ȒȈȒȐȍ ȊȣȉȖȘȣ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ șȚȘțȒȚțȘȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȣȔȐ, Ȑ ȒȈȒȐȍ ȈȒȚȖȘȣ ȌȊȐȋȈȦȚșȧ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐ. <…> ǰȏ ȜȈȒȚȈ, ȍșȓȐ ȥȚȖ ȜȈȒȚ, ȟȚȖ ȧȌȍȘȕȣȍ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȐȧ șȚȈȉȐȓȐȏȐȘȖȊȈȓȐ șȖȊȍȚșȒȖ-ȈȔȍȘȐȒȈȕ- șȒȐȍ ȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȧ, Ȕȣ ȕȍ ȔȖȎȍȔ ȌȍȓȈȚȤ ȊȣȊȖȌ, ȟȚȖ ȖȕȐ ȉțȌțȚ ȐȔȍȚȤ șȝȖȎȍȍ ȊȓȐȧȕȐȍ ȕȈ ȌȘțȋȐȝ șȖȗȍȘȕȐȒȖȊ, ȚȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȗȍȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȍ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊțȦȚ ș ȧȌȍȘȕȣȔȐ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȐȧȔȐ Ȋ ȥȚȖȔ șȓțȟȈȍ, ȔȖȋțȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȌȘțȋȐȔȐ (Ȑ, ȒȖȕȍȟȕȖ, ȔȖȋțȚ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȈȚȤșȧ Ȋ ȏȈȊȐșȐȔȖșȚȐ ȖȚ șȖȗȍȘȕȐȒȖȊ). ǹȖȉȣȚȐȧ, ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȧȡȐȍ ȗȖȟȚȐ ȖȌȕȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȖ, ȚȈȒȎȍ ȔȖȋțȚ ȖȒȈȏȈȚȤ ȌȘțȋȖȍ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȍ, ȕȍȎȍȓȐ ȒȖȋȌȈ Ȑȝ ȊȓȐȧȕȐȧ, ȘȈȏȌȍȓȍȕȕȣȍ ȊȖ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ, ȉȣȓȐ ȉȣ ȗȘȖșȚȖ ȗȘȖșțȔȔȐȘȖȊȈȕȣ»2.

ǪȚȖȘȖȑ ȚȐȗ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ: șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ ȏȈȊȐșȧȚ ȖȚ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȑ ȌȘțȋȐȝ. ǬȈȓȤȕȍȑȠȍȍ țșȓȖȎȕȍȕȐȍ șȐșȚȍȔȣ Ȑ șȊȧȏȈȕȕȖȍ ș ȕȐȔ ȊȖȏȘȈșȚȈȕȐȍ ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȖșȚȐ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍȔ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȑ ȈȒȚȖȘȖȊ. DzȈȎȌȣȑ Ȑȏ ȈȒȚȖȘȖȊ șȚȘȖȐȚ șȖȉșȚȊȍȕȕțȦ ȔȖȌȍȓȤ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ Ȑ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȗȖȓȖȎȕȖȑ șȚȖȘȖȕȣ,

1 Jervis, Robert. “Systems: The Role of Interactions,” in Alberts David S. and Czerwinski Thomas J. (eds.). Complexity, Global Politics, and National Security. Washington, D.C.: National Defense University Press, June 1997, pp. 2031. 12 January 2011. <http://www.dodccrp.org/files/Alberts_Complexity_Global.pdf>.

2 Ibid, pȘ. 23-24.

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ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȖȗȐȘȈȧșȤ ȕȈ ȒȖȚȖȘțȦ Ȗȕ ȊȣșȚȘȈȐȊȈȍȚ țȎȍ șȖȉșȚȊȍȕȕțȦ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȦ Ȑ ȓȐȕȐȦ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ. ȇȘȒȐȔ ȗȘȐȔȍȘȖȔ ȚȈȒȖȋȖ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȠȈȝȔȈȚȕȈȧ ȐȋȘȈ, ȒȖȋȌȈ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ șȖȉșȚȊȍȕȕȖȑ ȐȋȘȣ ȊȣșȚȘȈȐȊȈȍȚșȧ, Ȋ ȚȖȔ ȟȐșȓȍ, ȕȈ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȗȘȍȌȗȖȓȖȎȍȕȐȑ Ȗ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ ȗȘȐȌȍȘȎȐȊȈȍȚșȧ șȖȗȍȘȕȐȒ, ȚȖ ȍșȚȤ șȖȉșȚȊȍȕȕȈȧ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ȊȣșȚȘȈȐȊȈȍȚșȧ ȊȖ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȐ ș ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȍȑ ȖȗȗȖȕȍȕȚȈ. ǶȠȐȉȖȟȕȖȍ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ șȖȗȍȘȕȐȒȈ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚ Ȓ ȕȍȗȘȐȧȚȕȣȔ șȦȘȗȘȐȏȈȔ, ȕȍȖȎȐȌȈȕȕȖȔț Ȑ, șȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȤȕȖ, ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȖȔț ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȦ șȖȉȣȚȐȑ.

«Ǫ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ ȧȘȒȐȝ ȗȘȐȔȍȘȖȊ șȒȈȏȈȕȕȖȔț ȔȖȎȕȖ ȗȘȐȊȍșȚȐ ȔȕȖȎȍșȚȊȖ ȌȐȗȓȖȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ Ȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ șȦȘȗȘȐȏȖȊ. ǫȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȖ ȊȍȘȐȚ, ȟȚȖ ȗȘȍȗȧȚșȚȊȐȧ ȕȈ ȗțȚȐ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȖȋȖ ȒțȘșȈ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ ȚȈȒ ȊȍȓȐȒȐ, ȟȚȖ ȖȕȐ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȕȍȗȘȍȖȌȖȓȐȔȣȔȐ. DzȈȒ șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍ, ȖȕȖ ȕȍ ȗȘȍȌȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȍȚ ȒȈȒȐȝ-ȓȐȉȖ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ, ȟȚȖȉȣ ȉȓȖȒȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȐȓȐ ȗȖȌȋȖȚȖȊȐȚȤșȧ Ȓ ȌȈȕȕȣȔ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧȔ, ȚȍȔ șȈȔȣȔ ȗȘȖȊȖȞȐȘțȧ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ ȗȘȐȓȈȋȈȚȤ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȍ țșȐȓȐȧ, ȟȚȖȉȣ ȌȖșȚȐȟȤ țșȗȍȝȈ ȐȔȍȕȕȖ Ȋ ȥȚȖȔ ȕȈȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȐ»1.

ǷȘȐ ȊȣȉȖȘȍ șȖȉșȚȊȍȕȕȖȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ ȚȈȒȎȍ șȓȍȌțȍȚ ȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȚȤ ȊȖ ȊȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ ȚȖȚ ȜȈȒȚ, ȟȚȖ ȏȕȈȕȐȧ ȖȌȕȖȑ Ȑȏ șȚȖȘȖȕ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȗȖȚȍȕȞȐȈȓȈ Ȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ ȌȘțȋȖȑ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȗȘȐȉȓȐȏȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȔȐ Ȑ ȕȍ ȊșȍȋȌȈ ȈȌȍȒȊȈȚȕȣ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȖȔț ȗȖȓȖȎȍȕȐȦ Ȍȍȓ. ǺȈȒȖȋȖ ȘȖȌȈ ȟȈșȚȐȟȕȖȍ ȐȓȐ ȕȍȗȖȓȕȖȍ ȏȕȈȕȐȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ șȗȘȖȊȖȞȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȖȌȕț Ȑȏ șȚȖȘȖȕ ȕȈ ȠȈȋȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȖȕȈ ȌȖȓȎȕȈ ȉȣȓȈ ȉȣ ȐȏȉȍȋȈȚȤ, ȚȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȖȕȐ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȧȚ Ȓ ȕȍȋȈȚȐȊȕȖȔț Ȍȓȧ ȕȍȍ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȦ șȐȚțȈȞȐȐ, ȗȖȓȕȖșȚȤȦ ȗȍȘȍȒȘȣȊȈȦȡȍȔț ȌȖșȚȐȋȈȍȔȣȑ ȗȖȏȐȚȐȊȕȣȑ ȥȜȜȍȒȚ. ǴȖȎȕȖ ȊșȗȖȔȕȐȚȤ ȕȍȈȌȍȒȊȈȚȕȖșȚȤ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ ǴȐȓȖȠȍȊȐȟȈ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȖȠȐȉȖȟȕȖȍ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȍȕȐȍ Ȗ ȏȈȌȈȟȈȝ Ȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ șȚȘȈȕ ǵǨǺǶ Ȋ ȦȋȖșȓȈȊșȒȖȔ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȍ, Ȋ ȒȖȕȍȟȕȖȔ șȟȍȚȍ, ȗȘȐȊȍȓȖ Ȓ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȔ ȗȖȚȍȘȧȔ Ȑ ȗȍȘȍȔȐȘȐȦ ȕȈ ȋȖȘȈȏȌȖ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȎȍșȚȒȐȝ Ȍȓȧ șȚȘȈȕȣ țșȓȖȊȐȧȝ.

«DzȈȒ țșȗȍȝȐ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȗȘȖȊȈȓȣ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȐ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȦȚșȧ ȐȕȚȍȘȈȒȚȐȊȕȖ. ȅȚȖ ȖȏȕȈȟȈȍȚ, ȟȚȖ ȊȖ ȔȕȖȋȐȝ șȓțȟȈȧȝ ȖȠȐȉȒȐ ȘȈȏȊȍȌȒȐ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȊȏȈȐȔȕȣȔȐ, ȚȖ ȍșȚȤ ȖȠȐȉȈȍȚșȧ șȚȖȘȖȕȈ ȐȕȐȞȐȈȚȖȘ Ȑ șȚȖȘȖȕȈ, ȒȖȚȖȘțȦ ȏȈșȚȈȓȐ ȊȘȈșȗȓȖȝ. Ǫ șȈȔȖȔ Ȍȍȓȍ, ȗȘȍȌȊȖșȝȐȡȍȕȐȍ ȈȒȚȖȘȖȔ ȚȖȋȖ, ȟȚȖ ȉțȌțȚ ȌȍȓȈȚȤ ȌȘțȋȐȍ, ȟȈșȚȐȟȕȖ ȖȗȐȘȈȍȚșȧ ȕȈ ȍȋȖ șȖȉșȚȊȍȕȕȣȍ ȖȞȍȕȒȐ ȚȖȋȖ, ȟȚȖ ȌȘțȋȐȍ ȌțȔȈȦȚ Ȗ ȍȋȖ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧȝ.

ǪȖ ȔȕȖȋȐȝ șȓțȟȈȧȝ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȖ ȏȈșȚȈȍȚșȧ ȊȘȈșȗȓȖȝ ȊȊȐȌț ȚȖȋȖ, ȟȚȖ șȟȐȚȈȍȚ ȖȉȘȍȟȍȕȕȣȔȐ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȣȍ ȠȈȋȐ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ Ȑ, șȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȤȕȖ, ȕȍ ȖȎȐȌȈȍȚ, ȟȚȖ Ȗȕ ȗȘȍȌȗȘȐȔȍȚ Ȑȝ. ǹȀǨ ȕȍ ȖȎȐȌȈȓȐ, ȟȚȖ ǸȖșșȐȧ ȘȈȏȔȍșȚȐȚ ȘȈȒȍȚȣ ȕȈ Dzțȉȍ ȐȓȐ ȇȗȖȕȐȧ ȈȚȈȒțȍȚ ǷȍȘȓ ǽȈȘȉȖȘ, ȗȖȚȖȔț ȟȚȖ ȈȔȍȘȐȒȈȕșȒȐȍ ȖȜȐȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȓȐȞȈ ȏȕȈȓȐ, ȟȚȖ ǹȀǨ șȔȖȋțȚ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖșȚȖȧȚȤ ȌȈȕȕȣȔ ȗȖȗȣȚȒȈȔ, ȍșȓȐ ȖȕȐ ȉțȌțȚ ȗȘȍȌȗȘȐȕȧȚȣ. ǬȈȕȕȖȍ șțȎȌȍȕȐȍ ȉȣȓȖ ȒȖȘȘȍȒȚȕȣȔ, ȕȖ ȚȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȖȞȍȕȒȐ ȔȐȘȈ Ȑ ǹȀǨ ȌȘțȋȐȔȐ șȚȘȈȕȈȔȐ ȉȣȓȐ ȕȍ șȖȊșȍȔ ȚȖȟȕȣ, ȈȔȍȘȐȒȈȕșȒȐȍ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȕȐȧ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȖȒȈȏȈȓȐșȤ ȕȍȒȖȘȘȍȒȚȕȣȔȐ»2.

1 Ibid. p. 24.

2 Knorr, Klaus. “Failures in National Intelligence Estimates: The Case of the Cuban Missiles,” World Politics, Vol. 16, No. 3, April 1964, pp. 455-67. 12 January 2011. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2009582.

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ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ǺȘȍȚȐȑ ȚȐȗ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ: ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ ȔȍȕȧȍȚ șȘȍȌț. ǷȘȐ ȘȈșșȔȖȚȘȍȕȐȐ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖ țȟȐȚȣȊȈȚȤ Ȑ ȍȍ șȘȍȌț, ȗȘȐȟȍȔ Ȍȓȧ șȓȖȎȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘȕȈ Ȑ șȓȖȎȕȈȧ, ȌȐȕȈȔȐȟȕȈȧ, șȚȘțȒȚțȘȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȈȧ șȘȍȌȈ. ǪȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȔȍȎȌț ȈȒȚȖȘȈȔȐ ȊȕțȚȘȐ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȧȚ Ȓ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȣȔ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧȔ ȕȈ șȘȍȌț, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ, ȐȏȔȍȕȧȧ ȍȍ, ȔȖȋțȚ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚȤ Ȓ ȕȍȖȎȐȌȈȕȕȣȔȐ Ȑ ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȣȔ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȈȔ Ȑ ȗȖșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȧȔ. ǩȖȓȍȍ ȚȖȋȖ, ȖȌȕȐ Ȑ Țȍ Ȏȍ, ȕȖ ȘȈȏȊȍȌȍȕȕȣȍ ȊȖ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȔȖȋțȚ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚȤ Ȓ ȗȘȐȕȞȐȗȐȈȓȤȕȖ ȘȈȏȕȣȔ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȈȔ. Ǫ ȥȚȐȝ țșȓȖȊȐȧȝ ȕȈȐȉȖȓȍȍ ȈȌȍȒȊȈȚȕȖȑ ȔȖȌȍȓȤȦ Ȍȓȧ ȖȗȐșȈȕȐȧ șȐșȚȍȔȣ șȚȈȕȖȊȧȚșȧ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȣ ȥȊȖȓȦȞȐȐ Ȑ ȒȖȥȊȖȓȦȞȐȐ.

«ǵȈȟȈȓȤȕȖȍ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ Ȑ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣ ȟȈșȚȖ ȊȓȐȧȦȚ ȕȈ ȗȖșȓȍȌțȦȡȐȍ, ȗȘȖȐȏȊȖȌȧ ȔȖȡȕțȦ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȒț, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȡțȦ ȖȉȢȧșȕȐȚȤ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȊȖ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȕȍ ȔȖȋțȚ ȉȣȚȤ șȝȊȈȟȍȕȣ ȟȍȘȍȏ ȊȣȌȍȓȍȕȐȍ ȖȌȕȖȋȖ ȔȕȖȎȍșȚȊȈ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȖȊ Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ «ȗȘȐȟȐȕ», Ȉ ȌȘțȋȐȝ – Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ «șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȑ». ǽȖȚȧ ȖȉțȟȍȕȐȍ Ȑ ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȍ ȐȋȘȈȦȚ ȉȖȓȤȠțȦ ȘȖȓȤ Ȋ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ Ȑ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȎȐȏȕȐ, ȖȕȐ ȕȍ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȣȔȐ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȈȔȐ Ȍȓȧ ȌȈȕȕȖȋȖ ȚȐȗȈ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ. ǬȍȑșȚȊȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ, ȖȕȐ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘȐȏțȦȚ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȍ ȥȊȖȓȦȞȐȐ Ȋ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȍ. Ǵȣ ȖȉȣȟȕȖ ȌțȔȈȍȔ, ȟȚȖ ȐȕȌȐȊȐȌțțȔȣ Ȑ ȊȐȌȣ ȒȖȕȒțȘȐȘțȦȚ ȌȘțȋ ș ȌȘțȋȖȔ ȊȕțȚȘȐ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ șȘȍȌȣ, ȟȚȖ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚ Ȓ ȏȈȗțșȒț ȗȘȖȞȍșșȈ ȖȚȉȖȘȈ, ȧȊȓȧȦȡȍȋȖșȧ ȖșȕȖȊȖȑ ȥȊȖȓȦȞȐȐ. ǵȈ șȈȔȖȔ Ȍȍȓȍ, ȖȌȕȈȒȖ, ȐȔȍȍȚ ȔȍșȚȖ Ȑ ȒȖȥȊȖȓȦȞȐȧ: ȘȈșȚȍȕȐȧ Ȑ ȎȐȊȖȚȕȣȍ ȕȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȘțȦȚșȧ Ȓ șȘȍȌȍ, ȕȖ Ȑ ȔȍȕȧȦȚ ȍȍ. DzȈȒ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚ, ȖȕȈ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȗȘȐȊȓȍȒȈȚȍȓȤȕȖȑ Ȍȓȧ ȖȌȕȐȝ ȜȖȘȔ ȎȐȏȕȐ Ȑ Ȕȍȕȍȍ ȗȘȐȊȓȍȒȈȚȍȓȤȕȖȑ Ȍȓȧ ȌȘțȋȐȝ»1.

ǰșȚȖȘȐȧ ȔȍȎȌțȕȈȘȖȌȕȣȝ ȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȑ ȗȖȓȕȈ ȗȘȐȔȍȘȈȔȐ ȗȖȌȖȉȕȖȋȖ ȘȖȌȈ ȕȍȖȎȐȌȈȕȕȖșȚȍȑ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȓȦȌȐ, ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ, ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȈ ȊșȚțȗȈȓȐ Ȋ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȘȍȟȐȍ ș șȈȔȐȔȐ șȖȉȖȑ, ȉțȌțȟȐ ȘȈȏȌȍȓȍȕȕȣȔȐ ȊȖ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ. ǸȈȏȊȐȚȐȍ ȒȘȐȏȐșȈ Ȋ ǭȊȘȖȗȍ, ȗȘȐȊȍȌȠȍȋȖ ȒȖ ǪȚȖȘȖȑ ȔȐȘȖȊȖȑ ȊȖȑȕȍ, ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ ǹȈȌȌȈȔȈ ǽțșȍȑȕȈ ȌȖ ȕȈȟȈȓȈ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȐ «ǩțȘȧ Ȋ ȗțșȚȣȕȍ», ǴȐȓȖȠȍȊȐȟȈ ȊȖ ȊȘȍȔȧ ȦȋȖșȓȈȊșȒȖȋȖ ȒȘȐȏȐșȈ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȧȘȒȐȔȐ ȗȘȐȔȍȘȈȔȐ ȕȍȌȖȖȞȍȕȒȐ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȑ Ȋ șȘȍȌȍ.

ǰȕȖȋȌȈ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ șȐșȚȍȔȣ șȖ șȘȍȌȖȑ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ șȚȖȓȤ ȐȕȚȍȕșȐȊȕȣȔȐ, ȟȚȖ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣȔ ȗȘȖȊȍșȚȐ ȟȍȚȒțȦ ȋȘȈȕȤ ȔȍȎȌț ȕȐȔȐ. ǷȘȖȐșȝȖȌȐȚ ȘȈȏȔȣȊȈȕȐȍ ȋȘȈȕȐȞ, Ȑ ȊȖȏȕȐȒȈȍȚ ȊȖȗȘȖș Ȗ ȞȍȓȍșȖȖȉȘȈȏȕȖșȚȐ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȧ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ ȔȍȚȈșȐșȚȍȔȣ, ȊȒȖȚȖȘțȦ ȕȈȘȧȌț ș șȐșȚȍȔȖȑ ȊȒȓȦȟȈȦȚșȧ ȐȕȈȐȉȖȓȍȍ ȈȒȚȐȊȕȣȍ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȣ șȘȍȌȣ. Ǫ ȘȧȌȍ șȓțȟȈȍȊ ȥȚȖ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȍȚ ȊȣȧȊȐȚȤ ȘȧȌ ȏȈȒȖȕȖȔȍȘȕȖșȚȍȑ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ, ȊȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȖȔșȓțȟȈȍ, ȕȍȗȖȌȌȈȦȚșȧȘȈșȗȖȏȕȈȊȈȕȐȦ ȐțȟȍȚț.

«Ǵȣ ȟȈșȚȖ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘȐȏțȍȔ ȔȍȎȌțȕȈȘȖȌȕțȦ șȐȚțȈȞȐȦ ȒȈȒ ȕȍȕȈȌȍȎȕțȦ, ȕȍșȚȈȉȐȓȤȕțȦ ȐȓȐ ȖȗȈșȕțȦ. ǵȖ ȍșȓȐ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȍȕȕȣȍ ȌȍȧȚȍȓȐ ȊȖșȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȦȚ ȍȍ Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ ȚȈȒȖȊȖȑ Ȑ ȖȗȈșȈȦȚșȧ ȗȖșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȑ, ȖȕȐ ȉțȌțȚ șȚȘȍȔȐȚȤșȧ țȔȍȕȤȠȐȚȤ ȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȤ. ǶȌȕȈ Ȑȏ ȗȘȐȟȐȕ, ȗȖȟȍȔț ȒțȉȐȕșȒȐȑ ȘȈȒȍȚȕȣȑ ȒȘȐȏȐș ȕȍ ȗȘȐ-

1 Jervis, Systems: The Role of Interactions, pp. 24-25.

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