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Text 2 Divorce: a Fifty-Fifty Chance?

Divorce is a growing problem in the United States and many other developed countries. Although thousands and thousands of happy couples get married every year, more than 50 percent of them get divorced. Two researchers at the University of Washington studied marriage and divorce. They learned a lot from their research. With this information, they created a mathematical formula that predicts divorce. Mathematician James Murray and psychologist John Gottman agree that their predictions are correct almost all of the time.

How do they do it?

A husband and wife talk about a difficult subject for 15 minutes. The researchers videotape them. In addition, they record physical information such as heart rate. Then the researchers listen to the conversation. They watch the body language and look at the facial reactions. After that, they give the couple positive and negative points.

For example, the couple might talk about mothers-in-law. If the husband says, "Your mother is a lot of trouble:' the couple gets two negative points. If the wife rolls her eyes, they get two more negative points. However, if the husband says, "Your mother is a lot of trouble, but sometimes she's funny:' then the couple gets one positive point. If he smiles, they get another one.

In the end, the researchers add up the points. A good marriage has five more positive points than negative points. However, the researchers say that a bad score is not necessarily the end of a marriage. Marriages with bad scores can survive. They hope that couples will use the information from the study to learn to communicate. However, not everyone believes that mathematics can stop divorce. A professor of psychology at New York University says that it is "absolutely impossible" to use mathematics to help a marriage. The scientists disagree. They have studied this problem for 16 years. In that time, they have studied more than 700 couples. Their predictions are 94 percent accurate. It seems necessary for the survival of marriage that we listen to them.

Ex.1 Read the statements and write true (T) or false (F). Go back to Text 2 and look for the answers you are unsure of.

1. Most married couples get divorced.

2. There is a mathematical formula that predicts who should get married.

3. A mathematician worked with a sociologist.

4. For their study, the researchers videotaped couples.

5. The couples took a written test.

6. The researchers gave each couple positive and negative points.

7. If the score is bad, the couple has to get divorced.

8. The formula predicts incorrectly 6 percent of the time.

Ex. 2 Answer the questions.

1. What three things do the researchers look at?

2. Find two examples of body language or facial reactions in the reading.

Ex. 3 Vocabulary Work: Guess Meaning from Context

A. Match the words from Texts 1 and 2 with their meanings.

  1. desperate a. ask to marry

  2. propose b. sure of oneself

  3. self-confident c. hopeless

  4. research d. continue to live

  5. survive e. study

B. Guess Meaning from Related Words

1. The following words are in the texts. Find other words that are related to them.

Text 1

propose

self-confident

advice

column

Text 2

married

mathematical

predicts

necessary

psychology

agree