Арзуманян Р., Сложное мышление и сеть парадигма нелинейности и среда безопасности 21 века

ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȚȖȧȡȍȔ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚȤ Ȓ ȒȖȕȍȟȕȖȑ ȘȈȏȕȐȞȍ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ șȐșȚȍȔȣ Ȋ ȒȖȕȍȟȕȖȍ ȊȘȍȔȧ, șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȍ șȐșȚȍȔȣ șȟȐȚȈȍȚșȧ ȕȍșȚȈȉȐȓȤȕȣȔ. ȅȚȖ ȖȟȍȊȐȌȕȖ, ȟȚȖ șțȡȍșȚȊȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȕȍșȚȈȉȐȓȤȕȖȋȖ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȧ ȌȍȓȈȍȚ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣȔ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȕȐȍ ȉțȌțȡȐȝ șȖȉȣȚȐȑ, ȍșȓȐ ȕȈȠȍ ȏȕȈȕȐȍ ȚȍȒțȡȍȋȖ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȧ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȗȘȐȉȓȐȏȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȔ Ȑ ȕȍȚȖȟȕȣȔ <…> ȥȚȖ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȔȍȚȈȜȐȏȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȌȖȒȚȘȐȕȖȑ, ȟȚȖ Ȑȏ ȖȌȕȐȝ Ȑ Țȍȝ Ȏȍ ȗȘȍȌȣȌțȡȐȝ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȑ șȓȍȌțȦȚ Țȍ Ȏȍ șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȧ. ǵȐȒȚȖ ȕȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȖȚȘȐȞȈȚȤ ȥȚȖ. ǵȖ ȥȚȖ ȕȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȐȔȖ Ȓ ȕȈȠȍȔț ȔȐȘț, Ȋ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȔ ȖȌȕȐ Ȑ Țȍ Ȏȍ ȗȘȍȌȣȌțȡȐȍ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȧ ȕȐȒȖȋȌȈ ȕȍ șȖȊȗȈȌȈȦȚ Ȑ ȌȈȎȍ ȕȍ ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȧȚ ȌȊȈȎȌȣ. <…> ǼȐȏȐȟȍșȒȈȧ ȈȒșȐȖȔȈ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ ȐȔȍȍȚ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ șȝȖȎȐȍ ȈșȗȍȒȚȣ, ȔȖȎȍȚ ȊȣȋȓȧȌȍȚȤ șȓȍȌțȦȡȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ: “ǹȝȖȎȐȍ ȗȘȍȌȣȌțȡȐȍ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȧ ȊȍȌțȚ Ȓ șȝȖȎȐȔ ȗȖșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȧȔ”. ǵȖ ȏȌȍșȤ Ȕȣ ȗȍȘȍȝȖȌȐȔ ȖȚ ȖȌȐȕȈȒȖȊȖșȚȐ Ȓ șȝȖȎȍșȚȐ, ȖȚ ȈȉșȖȓȦȚȕȖȑ ȚȖȟȕȖșȚȐ ȒȉȖȓȍȍ ȐȓȐȔȍȕȍȍȋȘțȉȖȔț ȗȘȐȉȓȐȎȍȕȐȦ»1.

ǷȍȘȊȣȑ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȒ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ ȗȖȕȧȓ, ȟȚȖ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȈ ȚȘȍȝ Țȍȓ ȊȒȓȦȟȈȍȚ ȕȍșȚȈȉȐȓȤȕȖȍ, ȈȗȍȘȐȖȌȐȟȍșȒȖȍ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ, ȉȣȓ ǷțȈȕȒȈȘȍ. Ǫ ȥșșȍ 1890 ȋȖȌȈ Ȗȕ ȗȖȒȈȏȈȓ, ȟȚȖ ȋȘȈȊȐȚȈȞȐȖȕȕȈȧ șȐșȚȍȔȈ, ȊȒȓȦȟȈȦȡȈȧ ȚȘȐ ȚȍȓȈ, ȔȈșșȈ ȖȌȕȖȋȖ Ȑȏ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖ ȔȍȕȤȠȍ ȌȊțȝ ȖșȚȈȓȤȕȣȝ, ȌȍȔȖȕșȚȘȐȘțȍȚ ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȖȍ Ȑ șȓȖȎȕȖȍ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ2. ǬȈȕȕȖȍ «ȝȈȖȚȐȟȍșȒȖȍ» ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȜțȕȌȈȔȍȕȚȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘȐșȚȐȒȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȣ, Ȑ ȍȋȖ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ ȐșȒȓȦȟȐȚȤ ȐȓȐ țȔȍȕȤȠȐȚȤ ȟȍȘȍȏ șȉȖȘ ȉȖȓȤȠȍȑ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȐ, ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȍ ȉȖȓȍȍ șȚȘȖȋȖȋȖ ȔȈȚȍȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȈȗȗȈȘȈȚȈ Ȑ ȗȘ3. ǸȈșșțȎȌȈȧ Ȗ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ șȐȚțȈȞȐȐ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȔȈȓȖȍ ȊȝȖȌȕȖȍ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȍ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚ Ȓ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȔ Ȑ ȏȈȔȍȚȕȣȔ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȈȔ, ǷțȈȕȒȈȘȍ Ȋ 1903 ȋȖȌț ȗȐșȈȓ: «ǶȟȍȕȤ ȔȈȓȈȧ ȗȘȐȟȐȕȈ, țșȒȖȓȤȏȈȦȡȈȧ ȖȚ ȕȈȠȍȋȖ ȊȕȐȔȈȕȐȧ, ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȍȚ ȏȕȈȟȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȑ ȥȜȜȍȒȚ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ Ȕȣ ȕȍ ȔȖȎȍȔ ȊȐȌȍȚȤ, Ȑ ȗȖȥȚȖȔț Ȕȣ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȔ, ȟȚȖ ȥȜȜȍȒȚ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ șȓțȟȈȑȕȣȔ. ǭșȓȐ Ȕȣ ȚȖȟȕȖ ȏȕȈȍȔ ȏȈȒȖȕȣ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȣ Ȑ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȍ ǪșȍȓȍȕȕȖȑ Ȋ ȕȈȟȈȓȤȕȣȑ ȔȖȔȍȕȚ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ, Ȕȣ ȔȖȎȍȔ ȚȖȟȕȖ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȚȤ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȍ ȚȖȑ Ȏȍ ǪșȍȓȍȕȕȖȑ Ȋ ȗȖșȓȍȌțȦȡȐȑ ȔȖȔȍȕȚ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ. ǵȖ ȌȈȎȍ ȍșȓȐ ȗȘȍȌȗȖȓȖȎȐȚȤ, ȟȚȖ Ȋșȍ ȏȈȒȖȕȣ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȣ ȕȍ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ șȍȒȘȍȚȖȔ Ȍȓȧ ȕȈș, Ȕȣ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȗȘȐȉȓȐȏȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ ȔȖȎȍȔ ȏȕȈȚȤ ȕȈȟȈȓȤȕȖȍ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȍ. ǭșȓȐ ȥȚȖ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȍȚ ȕȈȔ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȚȤ ȉțȌțȡȍȍ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȍ ș ȚȍȔ Ȏȍ ȗȘȐȉȓȐȎȍȕȐȍȔ, ȟȚȖ ȚȘȍȉțȍȔ Ȋșȍ Ȕȣ, Ȕȣ ȔȖȎȍȔ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚȤ, ȟȚȖ ȧȊȓȍȕȐȍ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȣȔ, ȟȚȖ ȖȕȖ țȗȘȈȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȏȈȒȖȕȖȔ. ǵȖ ȥȚȖ ȕȍ ȊșȍȋȌȈ ȚȈȒ, Ȑ ȔȖȎȍȚ șȚȈȚȤșȧ, ȟȚȖ ȔȈȓȖȍ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȐȍ Ȋ ȕȈȟȈȓȤȕȣȝ țșȓȖȊȐȧȝ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚ Ȓ ȖȟȍȕȤ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȔ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧȔ Ȋ ȒȖȕȍȟȕȖȔ ȧȊȓȍȕȐȐ. ǵȍȉȖȓȤȠȈȧ ȖȠȐȉȒȈ Ȋ ȗȘȍȌȣȌțȡȍȔ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚȤ Ȓ ȋȘȖȔȈȌȕȖȑ ȖȠȐȉȒȍ Ȋ ȗȖșȓȍȌțȦȡȍȔ. ǷȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȕȐȍ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣȔ, Ȑ Ȕȣ ȐȔȍȍȔ șȓțȟȈȑȕȖȍ ȧȊȓȍȕȐȍ»4.

1 Maxwell, James Clerk, “Science and Free Will,” in Campbell Lewis and Garnett William, with a new preface and appendix by Kargon Robert H., The Life of James Clerk Maxwell [1882], New York: Johnson Reprint Corporation, 1969, pp. 440-442.

2 Stewart, Does God Play Dice, pp. 70-72.

3 Crutchfield J. P. , J. D. Farmer, N. H. Packard, and R. S. Shaw, “Chaos,” Scientific American, Vol. 255, No. 6, December 1986, pp. 46-57.

4 Poincaré, Henri. Science and Method. Trans. Maitland Francis, New York: Dover, 1952, pp. 67-68.

81

ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ǶȌȐȕ Ȑȏ ȗȍȘȊȣȝ ȥȒșȗȍȘȐȔȍȕȚȖȊ, ȗȖȒȈȏȈȊȠȐȝ, ȟȚȖ ȝȈȖș Ȑ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȤ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȒȈȒ ȔȈȚȍȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȜȐȏȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȖșȚȤȦ, ȉȣȓ ȗȘȖȊȍȌȍȕ ǨȓȤȉȍȘȚȖȔ dzȐȉȟȈȉȍȘȖȔ (Albert Libchaber) Ȑ ǮȈȕ ǴțȘȍȘȖȔ (Jean Maurer) Ȋ șȍȘȍȌȐȕȍ 70-ȝ ȋȖȌȖȊ 20 ȊȍȒȈ șȖ șȊȍȘȝȚȍȒțȟȐȔ ȋȍȓȐȍȔ1. ǻȟȍȕȣȍ ȉȣȓȐ ȊȣȕțȎȌȍȕȣ ȗȘȐȏȕȈȚȤ, ȟȚȖ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȤ Ȑ ȝȈȖș ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȕȍȖȚȢȍȔȓȍȔȖȑ ȟȈșȚȤȦ ȉȖȓȤȠȖȋȖ ȟȐșȓȈ ȜȐȏȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȧȊȓȍȕȐȑ, ȊȒȓȦȟȈȧ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȣ Ȋ ȉȐȖȓȖȋȐȐ Ȑ ȥȒȖȓȖȋȐȐ2. Ǫ 1986 ȋȖȌț șȥȘ ǬȎȍȑȔș dzȈȑȚȝȐȓ (James Lighthill), șȚȈȊȠȐȑ ȗȖȏȎȍ ȗȘȍȏȐȌȍȕȚȖȔ ǴȍȎȌțȕȈȘȖȌȕȖȋȖ șȖȦȏȈ ȟȐșȚȖȑ Ȑ ȗȘȐȒȓȈȌȕȖȑ ȔȈȚȍȔȈȚȐȒȐ, șȌȍȓȈȓ ȕȍȖȉȣȟȕȖȍ ȏȈȧȊȓȍȕȐȍ: Ȗȕ ȐȏȊȐȕȐȓșȧ ȖȚ ȐȔȍȕȐ șȊȖȐȝ ȒȖȓȓȍȋ ȏȈ ȚȖ, ȟȚȖ «Ȋ ȚȍȟȍȕȐȍ ȚȘȍȝ ȊȍȒȖȊ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȊȈȕȕȈȧ ȗțȉȓȐȒȈ ȊȊȖȌȐȓȈșȤ Ȋ ȏȈȉȓțȎȌȍȕȐȍ ȈȗȖȓȖȋȐȍȑ ȌȍȚȍȘȔȐȕȐȏȔȈ, ȖșȕȖȊȈȕȕȖȋȖ ȕȈ șȐșȚȍȔȍ ǵȤȦȚȖȕȈ, ȚȖȋȌȈ ȒȈȒ ȔȖȎȕȖ șȟȐȚȈȚȤ ȌȖȒȈȏȈȕȕȣȔ, ȗȖ ȒȘȈȑȕȍȑ ȔȍȘȍ ș 1960 ȋȖȌȈ, ȟȚȖ ȥȚȖȚ ȌȍȚȍȘȔȐȕȐȏȔ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȖȠȐȉȖȟȕȖȑ ȗȖȏȐȞȐȍȑ»3.

ȅȕȌȘȦ ǰȓȐȟȐȕșȒȐ (Andrew Ilichinski) Ȋ ȘȈȉȖȚȍ, ȗȖșȊȧȡȍȕȕȖȑ ȈȕȈȓȐȏț ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȝ ȈșȗȍȒȚȖȊ ȕȈȏȍȔȕȖȋȖ ȉȖȧ, ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚ șȘȈȊȕȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȍ ȚȈȉȓȐȞȣ ȔȍȚȈȜȖȘ, ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȍȔȣȝ Ȋ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȑ Ȑ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȑ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȈȝ (ǺȈȉȓȐȞȈ 2)4, Ȉ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ Ȑȏ ȗȘȐȕȞȐȗȖȊ, ȓȍȎȈȡȐȝ Ȋ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȜȖȘȔȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȑ Ȑ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȑ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔ (ǺȈȉȓȐȞȈ 3)5.

1 Mukerjee, Madhusree. “Profile: Albert Libchaber-Seeing the World in a Snowflake,” Scientific American, March 1996, p. 42.

2 Bai-lin, Hao (ed.). Chaos. Singapore: World Scientific, 1984, pp. 67-71.

3 ǾȐȚ. ȗȖ ǰ. ǷȘȐȋȖȎȐȕ, “ǼȐȓȖșȖȜȐȧ ȕȍșȚȈȉȐȓȤȕȖșȚȐ,” ǪȖȗȘȖșȣ ȜȐȓȖșȖȜȐȐ, No. 6, 1991, cȚȘ. 46-57.

4 Ilichinski, Andrew. Land Warfare and Complexity. Part II: An Assessment of the Applicability of Nonlinear Dynamic and Complex Systems Theory to the Study of Land Warfare. Alexandria, VA: Center for Naval Analyses, Research Memorandum CRM-68, July 1996, p. 53. 12 January 2011. http://www.cna.org/isaac/lwpart2.pdf.

5 Ibid, p. 54.

82

ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ǺȈȉȓȐȞȈ 2

ǹȘȈȊȕȐȚȍȓȤȕȈȧ ȚȈȉȓȐȞȈ ȔȍȚȈȜȖȘ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȑ Ȑ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȑ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔ

dzǰǵǭDZǵȃǭ ǴǭǺǨǼǶǸȃ	ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵȃǭ ǴǭǺǨǼǶǸȃ
ǨȕȈȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȑ	ǹȐȕȚȍȚȐȟȍșȒȐȑ
ǩȈȏȐșȕȣȍ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȣ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ «ȒȊȈȕȚȈȔȐ»	ǩȈȏȐșȕȣȍ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȣ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ «ȗȈȚȚȍȘȕȈȔȐ»
ǷȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ țșȓȖȊȕȣȔ Ȑ țȏȕȈȊȈȍ-	ǷȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȊȕȍȏȈȗȕȣȔ Ȑ ȟȈșȚȖ ȕȍȖȎȐ-
ȔȣȔ	ȌȈȍȔȣȔ
ǹțȡȍșȚȊțȦȡȐȑ	ǹȚȈȕȖȊȧȡȐȑșȧ
ǺȖȟȕȖșȚȤ ȟȈșȖȊȖȋȖ ȔȍȝȈȕȐȏȔȈ	ǵȍȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȕȖȍ (ȖȚȒȘȣȚȖȍ) ȘȈȏȊȍȘȚȣȊȈȕȐȍ
ǯȈȒȘȣȚȈȧ șȐșȚȍȔȈ	ǶȚȒȘȣȚȈȧ șȐșȚȍȔȈ
ǹȓȖȎȕȖșȚȤ ȗȖȘȖȎȌȈȍȚ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȤ	ǹȓȖȎȕȖșȚȤ ȗȖȘȖȎȌȈȍȚ ȗȘȖșȚȖȚț
ǬȍȚȍȘȔȐȕȐșȚȐȟȍșȒȐȑ	ǬȍȚȍȘȔȐȕȐșȚȐȟȍșȒȐ ȝȈȖȚȐȟȍșȒȐȑ
ǸȈȊȕȖȊȍșȐȍ	ǹȖșȚȖȧȕȐȍ, ȌȈȓȍȒȖȍ ȖȚ ȘȈȊȕȖȊȍșȐȧ/ȕȍȗȘȍȘȣȊȕȈȧ
	ȕȖȊȐȏȕȈ
ǰȕȌȐȊȐȌțȈȓȐșȚȐȟȍșȒȐȑ	DzȖȓȓȍȒȚȐȊȕȣȑ
dzȐȕȍȑȕȣȑ	ǵȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȑ
dzȐȕȍȑȕȈȧ ȗȘȐȟȐȕȕȖșȚȤ	ǶȉȘȈȚȕȈȧ șȊȧȏȤ/ȞȐȒȓȐȟȕȈȧ ȗȘȐȟȐȕȕȖșȚȤ
ǴȍȝȈȕȐșȚȐȟȍșȒȈȧ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȒȈ	ȅȊȖȓȦȞȐȖȕȕȈȧ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȒȈ
ǪȖȍȕȕȈȧ «ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȧ»	ǪȖȍȕȕȈȧ «ȥȊȖȓȦȞȐȧ»
ǩȖȑ ȒȈȒ șȚȖȓȒȕȖȊȍȕȐȍ ȔȍȎȌț ȕȤȦȚȖȕȖȊ-	ǩȖȑ ȒȈȒ șȈȔȖȖȘȋȈȕȐȏțȦȡȈȧșȧ ȥȒȖȓȖȋȐȧ ȎȐȊȣȝ
șȒȐȔȐ «ȉȐȓȤȧȘȌȕȣȔȐ ȠȈȘȈȔȐ»	«ȜȓȦȐȌȖȊ»
ǷȖȘȧȌȖȒ	ǵȍȖȚȢȍȔȓȍȔȣȑ, ȊȘȖȎȌȍȕȕȣȑ ȉȍșȗȖȘȧȌȖȒ
ǷȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȣȑ	ǵȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȣȑ
DzȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȣȑ	DzȈȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȣȑ
ǸȍȌțȒȞȐȖȕȐșȚșȒȐȑ	ǽȖȓȐșȚȐȟȍșȒȐȑ
ǸȍȠȍȕȐȍ	ǷȘȖȞȍșș Ȑ ȈȌȈȗȚȈȞȐȧ
ǹȚȈȉȐȓȤȕȖșȚȤ	«DzȘȖȔȒȈ ȝȈȖșȈ»
«ǹȊȍȘȝț-ȊȕȐȏ»	«ǹȕȐȏț-ȊȊȍȘȝ» Ȑ «șȊȍȘȝț-ȊȕȐȏ»

83

ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

		ǺȈȉȓȐȞȈ 3
ǹȘȈȊȕȐȚȍȓȤȕȈȧ ȚȈȉȓȐȞȈ ȗȘȐȕȞȐȗȖȊ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȑ Ȑ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȑ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔ
DzǶǵǺǭDzǹǺ	dzǰǵǭDZǵȃDZ	ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵȃDZ
ǹȓȖȎȕȖȍ	ǹȓȖȎȕȖȍ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ ȚȘȍȉțȍȚ șȓȖȎ-	ǷȘȖșȚȣȍ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ ȟȈșȚȖ ȉȣȊȈȦȚ
ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ	ȕȣȝ ȔȖȌȍȓȍȑ	ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȣȔȐ Ȍȓȧ ȖȗȐșȈȕȐȧ șȓȖȎ-
		ȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ
ǷȈȚȚȍȘȕȣ	DzȈȎȌȣȑ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȣȑ	DzȈȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȣȍ ȗȈȚȚȍȘȕȣ
ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ	ȗȈȚȚȍȘȕ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ ȚȘȍȉțȍȚ ȘȈȏȓȐȟ-	ȔȖȋțȚ ȖȗȐșȣȊȈȚȤșȧ ȚȍȔȐ Ȏȍ șȈȔȣȔȐ
	ȕȖȋȖ țȘȈȊȕȍȕȐȧ	ȖșȕȖȊȕȣȔȐ țȘȈȊȕȍȕȐȧȔȐ
ǶȗȐșȈȕȐȍ	DzȈȎȌȣȑ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȣȑ	ǶȌȕȖ țȘȈȊȕȍȕȐȍ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȋȈȊȈȕȤȦ
ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ	ȚȐȗ ȚȘȍȉțȍȚ ȕȖȊȖȋȖ țȘȈȊȕȍȕȐȧ ȐȓȐ	(harbors) ȔȕȖȎȍșȚȊȈ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖ
	ȔȕȖȎȍșȚȊȈ țȘȈȊȕȍȕȐȑ	ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȣȝ ȗȈȚȚȍȘȕȖȊ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ
ȅȜȜȍȒȚȣ ȔȈȓȣȝ	ǴȈȓȖȍ ȊȖȏȔțȡȍȕȐȍ ȐȕȌțȞȐȘțȍȚ	ǴȈȓȣȍ ȊȖȏȔțȡȍȕȐȧ ȔȖȋțȚ ȗȘȐȊȍș-
ȊȖȏȔțȡȍȕȐȑ	ȔȈȓȣȍ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ	ȚȐ Ȓ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȔ ȗȖșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȧȔ
DzȈȒ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȚȤ	ǹȐșȚȍȔȈ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȗȖȕȧȚȈ ȟȍȘȍȏ	ǹȐșȚȍȔȈ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȗȖȕȧȚȈ ȟȍȘȍȏ
șȐșȚȍȔț	șȊȖȐ ȗȘȖșȚȣȍ ȒȖȔȗȖȕȍȕȚȣ Ȑ Ȑȝ ȈȕȈ-	ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȔȍȎȌț ȍȍ ȒȖȔȗȖ-
	ȓȐȏ	ȕȍȕȚȈȔȐ: șȔȖȚȘȐ ȕȈ ȊșȦ șȐșȚȍȔț
ǰșȚȖȟȕȐȒ	ǩȍșȗȖȘȧȌȖȒ, Ȋ ȖșȕȖȊȕȖȔ, ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ	ǩȍșȗȖȘȧȌȖȒ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȊȖȏȕȐȒȕțȚȤ ȕȈ
ȉȍșȗȖȘȧȌȒȈ	ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȖȔ ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȣȝ șȐȓ	ȖșȕȖȊȍ șȈȔȖȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ ȊȕțȚȘȐ
	Ȋȕȍ șȐșȚȍȔȣ	șȐșȚȍȔȣ
ǷȘȐȘȖȌȈ ȕȈȉȓȦ-	ǷȖȘȧȌȖȒ, ȘȈȏ țșȚȈȕȖȊȓȍȕȕȣȑ, ȧȊȓȧ-	ǹȐșȚȍȔȈ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȗȘȖȧȊȓȧȚȤ șȍȉȧ
ȌȈȍȔȖȋȖ ȗȖȘȧȌȒȈ	ȍȚșȧ ȊșȍȖȉȢȍȔȓȦȡȐȔ Ȑ ȗȘȖȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ	ȓȖȒȈȓȤȕȖ ȉȍșȗȖȘȧȌȖȟȕȖ, ȕȖ ȖȉȓȈ-
	ȒȈȒ ȓȖȒȈȓȤȕȖ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȖ	ȌȈȚȤ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȣȔ ȗȖȘȧȌȒȖȔ.
«ǾȍȓȤ»	ǾȍȓȤ ȏȈȒȓȦȟȈȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȒȍ	ǾȍȓȤȏȈȒȓȦȟȈȍȚșȧȊ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȐ
	«țȘȈȊȕȍȕȐȑ», ȖȗȐșȣȊȈȦȡȐȝ ȗȖ-	ȚȖȋȖ, ȒȈȒȐȔȖȉȘȈȏȖȔșȐșȚȍȔȈ, ȒȈȒ
	ȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ, ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȍȔȣȝ ȐȏȖ-	ȍȌȐȕȖȍȞȍȓȖȍ, ȘȍȈȋȐȘțȍȚȕȈȘȈȏȓȐȟ-
	ȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȣȔ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȔ ȖȌȕȖȑ ȗȍȘȍ-	ȕȣȍȒȖȕȚȍȒșȚȣ, ȉȍȏȌȖȔȐȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ
	ȔȍȕȕȖȑ ȊȖ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ	ȒȈȒȖȑ-ȓȐȉȖȖȌȕȖȑȗȍȘȍȔȍȕȕȖȑ
ǺȐȗ «ȘȍȠȍȕȐȑ»	ǾȍȓȤ ȏȈȒȓȦȟȈȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȗȖȐșȒȍ	ǵȍ șțȡȍșȚȊțȍȚ ȖȗȚȐȔȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ Șȍ-
	«ȖȗȚȐȔȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ» ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ	ȠȍȕȐȧ ȚȖȋȖ, ȒȈȒ șȐșȚȍȔȈ Ȋ ȞȍȓȖȔ
		ȘȍȈȋȐȘțȍȚ ȕȈ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȣȍ ȒȖȕȚȍȒ-
		șȚȣ, ȉȍȏ ȌȖȔȐȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȒȈȒȖȑ-
		ȓȐȉȖ ȖȌȕȖȑ ȗȍȘȍȔȍȕȕȖȑ
ǷȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȖșȚȤ	ǷȘȍȌȗȖȓȈȋȈȧ, ȟȚȖ «ȒȖȘȘȍȒȚȕȈȧ» ȔȖ-	ǬȖȓȋȖșȘȖȟȕȖȍ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȕȐȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ
	ȌȍȓȤ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȗȖșȚȘȖȍȕȈ, Ȉ ȕȈ-	ȉȣȚȤ ȕȍȌȖșȧȋȈȍȔȣȔ ȌȈȎȍ Ȋ ȗȘȐȕ-
	ȟȈȓȤȕȣȍ țșȓȖȊȐȧ ȚȖȟȕȖ țșȚȈȕȖȊȓȍ-	ȞȐȗȍ; ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȗȘȍȌ-
	ȕȣ, Ȋșȍ ȔȖȎȕȖ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȚȤ Ȑ ȒȖȕ-	șȒȈȏțȍȔȣȔ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ Ȍȓȧ ȒȖȘȖȚȒȖȋȖ
	ȚȘȖȓȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ	ȗȘȖȔȍȎțȚȒȈ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ
ǷȘȐȘȖȌȈ ȗȘȐȟȐȕ-	ǷȘȐȟȐȕȕȖșȚȤ ȚȍȟȍȚ «șȕȐȏț-ȊȊȍȘȝ»	ǷȘȐȟȐȕȕȖșȚȤ ȚȍȟȍȚ ȒȈȒ «șȕȐȏț-
ȕȖȋȖ ȗȖȚȖȒȈ		ȊȊȍȘȝ», ȚȈȒ Ȑ «șȊȍȘȝț-ȊȕȐȏ»

84

II. ǷǸǶǾǭǹǹȃ ǫdzǶǩǨdzǰǯǨǾǰǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

1.ǶșȕȖȊȕȣȍ ȟȍȘȚȣ ȕȈȘȖȎȌȈȦȡȍȑșȧ ȥȗȖȝȐ

1.1ǹȚȈȕȖȊȓȍȕȐȍ ȕȖȊȖȑ ȥȗȖȝȐ

ǷȖșȓȍȌȕȐȍ ȌȍșȧȚȐȓȍȚȐȧ ȔȐȘȖȊȖȑ ȐșȚȖȘȐȐ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘȐȏȐȘțȦȚșȧ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȕșȚȊȖȔ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȍȑ, ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȍȕȕȣȝȐȖȉȡȍșȚȊȍȕȕȣȝȌȍȧȚȍȓȍȑ ȒȈȒ ȥȗȖȝȈȋȓțȉȖȒȐȝȐ ȉȣșȚȘȣȝ ȗȍȘȍȔȍȕ. ǸȈȏȊȖȘȈȟȐȊȈȦȡȐȍșȧ șȖȉȣȚȐȧ Ȑ ȧȊȓȍȕȐȧ ȗȖȓțȟȈȦȚ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕțȦ ȖȞȍȕȒț, Ȋ ȏȈȊȐșȐȔȖșȚȐ ȖȚ ȔȐȘȖȊȖȏȏȘȍȕȐȧ, ȜȐȓȖșȖȜșȒȐȝ țȉȍȎȌȍȕȐȑ ȐȓȐ ȐȌȍȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȗȘȍȌȗȖȟȚȍȕȐȑ ȈȊȚȖȘȖȊ. ǹȚȘȍȔȧșȤ ȖșȔȣșȓȐȚȤ ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȧȡȐȍ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ, ȍȊȘȖȗȍȑșȒȈȧ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȈȧ Ȑ ȜȐȓȖșȖȜșȒȈȧ ȔȣșȓȤ ȌȈȊȈȓȈ Ȑ ȌȈȍȚ Ȟȍȓȣȑ șȗȍȒȚȘ ȊȏȋȓȧȌȖȊ, ȟȚȖ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚ Ȗ ȕȈȓȐȟȐȐ ț ȕȍȍ ȗȖȚȍȕȞȐȈȓȈ Ȑ ȘȍșțȘșȖȊ Ȍȓȧ ȜȖȘȔȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȖȚȒȓȐȒȈ ȕȈ ȉȘȖȠȍȕȕȣȑ ȊȣȏȖȊ. Ǫ ȌȈȕȕȖȔ șȓțȟȈȍ ȊȈȎȕȖȑ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȒȖȕșȚȈȚȈȞȐȧ ȚȖȋȖ ȜȈȒȚȈ, ȟȚȖ șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȍ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȈ ȗȍȘȍȎȐȊȈȦȚ ȥȗȖȝț ȚȘȈȕșȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȐ ȐȕșȚȐȚțȚȖȊ, ȗȘȖȞȍșșȖȊ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ ȖȗȘȖȒȐȌȣȊȈȍȚ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ ȐȗȖȌȝȖȌȣȒȖȞȍȕȒȍ ȔȐȘȈ Ȑ șȊȖȍȋȖ ȔȍșȚȈ Ȋ ȕȍȔ1. ǹȓȍȌțȧ ȗȘȐȕȞȐȗȈȔ ȕȈțȒȐ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ, Ȋ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ ȌȈȕȕȖȑ ȘȈȉȖȚȣ ȗȘȍȌȓȈȋȈȍȚșȧ șȖșȘȍȌȖȚȖȟȐȚȤșȧ ȕȈ ȊȣȧȊȓȍȕȐȐ ȏȈȒȖȕȖȔȍȘȕȖșȚȍȑ, ȗȘȐșțȡȐȝ șȈȔȖȔț ȗȘȖȞȍșșț ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȑ ȒȈȒ ȚȈȒȖȊȖȔț, Ȉ ȕȍ ȕȈ ȍȋȖ ȖȞȍȕȒȍ Ȑ ȐȕȚȍȘȗȘȍȚȈȞȐȐ. ǷȖȌȖȉȕȖȋȖ ȘȖȌȈ «ȖȚȊȓȍȟȍȕȕȖșȚȤ» ȖȚ ȐȕȌȐȊȐȌțȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȟȍȘȚ ȚȖȋȖ ȐȓȐ ȐȕȖȋȖ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȈ ȗȘȐ ȖșȚȖȘȖȎȕȖȔ Ȑ ȊȏȊȍȠȍȕȕȖȔ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȍ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȍȚ ȊȣȘȈȉȖȚȈȚȤ ȘȍȒȖȔȍȕȌȈȞȐȐ, ȗȖȔȖȋȈȦȡȐȍ ȖȘȐȍȕȚȐȘȖȊȈȚȤșȧ ȊȉȣșȚȘȖȔȍȕȧȦȡȍȔșȧ ȔȐȘȍ.

ǷȖȗȣȚȒȐ ȖșȔȣșȓȐȚȤ ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȧȡȐȍ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȧȚ Ȓ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȦ ȚȖȋȖ ȜȈȒȚȈ, ȟȚȖ Ȋ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȈȍȔȣȝ ȗȍȘȍȔȍȕ ȓȍȎȈȚ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȋȓțȉȖȒȐȍ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȣ, ȕȍȎȍȓȐ ȗȘȖșȚȖ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȐȕȕȖȊȈȞȐȐ2. ǰȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȏȈȚȘȖȕțȓȐ ȗȈȚȚȍȘȕȣ, ȓȍȎȈȡȐȍ Ȋ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȜȖȘȔȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȚȈȒȐȝ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȐȕșȚȐȚțȚȖȊ, ȒȈȒ șȍȔȤȧ, șȚȘȈȕȣ, ȔȐȘȖȊȈȧ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȈȧ șȐșȚȍȔȈ3. ǭșȓȐ ȘȈȕȍȍ ȔȐȘ ȊȣșȚȘȈȐȊȈȓșȧ ȊȖȒȘțȋ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȒȓȦȟȍȊȣȝ ȗȖȕȧȚȐȑ Ȑ țȗȖȘȧȌȖȟȍȕȕȣȝ ȗȈȚȚȍȘȕȖȊ, ȚȖ șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȈȧ ȥȗȖȝȈ ȐȏȊȓȍȒȈȍȚ șȊȖȑ ȗȖȘȧȌȖȒ Ȑ ȔȐȘ Ȑȏ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȗȖȓȖȎȕȣȝ ȚȍȕȌȍȕȞȐȑ Ȑ ȥȗȐȏȖȌȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȗȈȚȚȍȘȕȖȊ4. ǹȖȊȍȘȠȍȕȕȖ ȕȍȌȈȊȕȖ ȎȐȏȕȤ ȓȐȟȕȖșȚȐ, șȚȘȈȕȣ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧ-

1 Rosȍnau, James N. “The Challenges and Tensions of a Globalized World,” American Studies International, Vol. XXXVIII, No. 2, June 2000, pp. 9-10.

2 Rosȍnau, James N. Along the Domestic-Foreign Frontier: Exploring Governance in a Turbulent World. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997.

3 Rosȍnau, James N. “Disorder and Order in a Turbulent World: The Emergence of Globalized Space,” in Kegley C. W. and Wittkopf E. R. (eds.). The Global Agenda, New York: McGraw Hill, 5th ed., 1998, pp. 145-169.

4 Rosȍnau, The Challenges and Tensions of a Globalized World, p. 15.

85

ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȓȈșȤ ȌȊȐȎȍȕȐȍȔ ȗȖ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȐȓȐ Ȕȍȕȍȍ ȟȍȚȒȐȔ ȚȘȈȍȒȚȖȘȐȧȔ, ȖȌȕȈȒȖ șȍȑȟȈș ȥȚȖ ȊȣȋȓȧȌȐȚ ȒȈȒ ȝȈȖȚȐȟȍșȒȖȍ ȌȊȐȎȍȕȐȍ ș ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȣȔȐ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȈȔȐ1, Ȍȓȧ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȧ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȧȚȤ ȗȘȐȕȞȐȗȣ șȓȖȎȕȖȋȖ ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȧ. ǷȘȖȐșȝȖȌȧȡȐȍ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȗȖȘȖȑ șȊȧȏȣȊȈȦȚșȧ ș ȗȖȕȧȚȐȍȔ «ȕȖȊȣȑ ȔȐȘȖȊȖȑ ȗȖȘȧȌȖȒ», ȝȖȚȧ ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ șȗȘȈȊȍȌȓȐȊȖ ȊȣșȒȈȏȣȊȈȦȚșȧ șȖȔȕȍȕȐȧ Ȋ ȗȘȈȊȖȔȍȘȕȖșȚȐ ȌȈȕȕȖȋȖ ȚȍȘȔȐȕȈ, ȚȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȚȖ, ȟȚȖ ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȐȚ Ȋ șȐșȚȍȔȍ ȔȍȎȌțȕȈȘȖȌȕȣȝ ȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȑ, ȔȐȘȖȊȖȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȍ, ȚȘțȌȕȖ ȕȈȏȊȈȚȤ ȗȖȘȧȌȒȖȔ2.

ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, ȘȍȟȤ ȐȌȍȚ Ȗ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȋȓțȉȖȒȐȝ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȈȝ, Ȍȓȧ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȧ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȍ ȚȍȘȔȐȕȖȊ «ȥȗȖȝȈ», «ȥȘȈ» ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ țșȓȖȊȕȣȔ, ȚȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȌȖȊȖȓȤȕȖ ȚȘțȌȕȖ ȕȈȏȊȈȚȤ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȣȍ ȒȖȕȒȘȍȚȕȣȍ șȘȖȒȐ ȐȕȐȞȐȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȌȈȕȕȣȝ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȖȊ. ȅȚȖ ȥȗȖȝȈ, ȜȖȘȔȐȘțȍȔȈȧ ȕȍȗȘȐȊȣȟȕȣȔȐ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȣȔȐ șȚȘțȒȚțȘȈȔȐ Ȑ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȈȔȐ, ȕȍ ȧȊȓȧȦȡȐȔȐșȧ ȐȕȚȍȋȘȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȟȈșȚȤȦ ȗȘȍȌȣȌțȡȍȑ ȐșȚȖȘȐȐ3. Ǫ ȚȍȘȔȐȕȈȝ ȉȘȍȌȍȓȍȊșȒȖȑ ȐșȚȖȘȐȐ4 ȕȈȘȖȎȌȈȦȡȈȧșȧ ȥȗȖȝȈ ȚȖȎȌȍșȚȊȍȕȕȈ ȕȍ șȐȦȔȐȕțȚȕȖȔț șȖȉȣȚȐȦ, șȘȍȌȕȍșȘȖȟȕȖȑ ȒȖȕȢȦȕȒȚțȘȕȖȑ ȚȍȕȌȍȕȞȐȐ, ȕȖ «long-duree» – ȋȓțȉȖȒȖțȒȖȘȍȕȍȕȕȣȔ țȗȖȘȧȌȖȟȍȕȕȖșȚȧȔ, ȗȖșȘȍȌșȚȊȖȔ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȓȦȌȐ ȗȖșȚȐȋȈȦȚ șȈȔȐȝ șȍȉȧ, șȚȘȖȧȚ ȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȧ ș ȌȘțȋȐȔȐ Ȑ ȜȖȘȔȐȘțȦȚ ȒȖȓȓȍȒȚȐȊȣ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȚȈȒ ȖȚȓȐȟȕȣ ȖȚ ȗȘȍȌȣȌțȡȍȑ ȥȗȖȝȐ, ȟȚȖ ȕȈȝȖȌȧȚșȧ Ȋȕȍ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȘȈșȗȖȏȕȈȊȈȕȐȧ ȗȘȍȌȣȌțȡȐȔȐ ȗȖȒȖȓȍȕȐȧȔȐ.

ǪȣȊȖȌ Ȗ ȚȖȔ, ȟȚȖ ȗȖȧȊȓȍȕȐȍ ȥȓȍȒȚȘȖȕȕȣȝ ǹǴǰ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖ ȐȏȔȍȕȧȍȚ ȒțȓȤȚțȘȕȖȍ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȖ ǯȈȗȈȌȈ, ȉȣȓ șȌȍȓȈȕ ȍȡȍ Ȋ 70-ȣȍ ȋȖȌȣ 20 ȊȍȒȈ. Ǫ ȟȈșȚȕȖșȚȐ, ǨȉȘȈȈȔ ǴȖȓȤ5 (Abraham Moles) ȗȘȐȠȍȓ Ȓ ȊȣȊȖȌț, ȟȚȖ ȗȖȌ ȊȓȐȧȕȐȍȔ ȥȓȍȒȚȘȖȕȕȣȝ ǹǴǰ ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȧȚ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȣȍ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ Ȋ ȏȈȗȈȌȕȖȑ ȒțȓȤȚțȘȍ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ Ȑȏ «ȋțȔȈȕȐȚȈȘȕȖȑ» ȚȘȈȕșȜȖȘȔȐȘțȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȗȘȐȕȞȐȗȐȈȓȤȕȖ ȌȘțȋțȦ – «ȔȖȏȈȐȟȕțȦ». Ǫ ȖșȕȖȊȍ «ȋțȔȈȕȐȚȈȘȕȖȑ» ȒțȓȤȚțȘȣ ȓȍȎȐȚ ȘȧȌ «ȖșȕȖȊȕȣȝ ȗȘȍȌȔȍȚȖȊ Ȑ ȋȖȚȖȊȣȝ ȚȍȔ Ȍȓȧ ȘȈȏȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȑ, Ȋ ȖȚȓȐȟȐȍ ȖȚ ȗȘȍȌȔȍȚȖȊ Ȕȍȕȍȍ ȊȈȎȕȣȝ Ȑ ȔȍȓȖȟȍȑ ȗȖȊșȍȌȕȍȊȕȖȑ ȎȐȏȕȐ»6. ȅȚȖ ȗȘȍȌȗȖȓȈȋȈȍȚ ȕȈȓȐȟȐȍ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ ȐȍȘȈȘȝȐȐ ȗȖȕȧȚȐȑ, ȐȌȍȑ, ȗȖșȚȐȋȈȧ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ, ȟȍȓȖȊȍȒ țȟȐȚșȧ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȚȤ Ȑ ȊȖșȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȚȤ ȔȐȘ. ǩȓȈȋȖȌȈȘȧ ȥȚȖȔț ȓȦȉȖȍ ȧȊȓȍȕȐȍ, ș ȒȖȚȖȘȣȔ șȚȈȓȒȐȊȈȍȚșȧ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȒ, ȗȘȖȍȞȐȘțȍȚșȧ ȕȈ ȎȍșȚȒțȦ, ȐȍȘȈȘȝȐȟȍșȒțȦ șȚȘțȒȚțȘț, șȖșȚȖȧȡțȦ Ȑȏ ȒȓȦȟȍȊȣȝ, ȊȚȖȘȖșȚȍȗȍȕȕȣȝ Ȑ ȚȘȍȚȤȍșȚȍȗȍȕȕȣȝ ȓȐȕȐȑ Ȑ țȏȓȖȊ. «ǪȖșȗȘȐȧȚȐȧ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ ȒȈȒ ȉȣ ȗȘȖȍȞȐȘȖȊȈȚȤșȧ ȕȈ ȥȒ-

1 Rosȍnau, James N. “Many Dawn Things simultaneously: Complexity Theory and World Affairs,” in Alberts David S. and Czerwinski Thomas J. (eds.). Complexity, Global Politics, and National Security, Washington, D.C.: National Defense University Press, June 1997, pp. 73-100. 12 January 2011. http://www.dodccrp. org/files/ Alberts_Complexity_Global.pdf.

2 Mann, Steven R. “The Reaction to Chaos,” in Alberts David S. and Czerwinski Thomas J. (eds.) Complexity, Global Politics, and National Security. Washington, DC: National Defense University Press, June 1997, pp. 135-149. 12 January 2011. http://www.dodccrp. org/files/Alberts_Complexity_Global.pdf.

3 Rosȍnau, The Challenges and Tensions of a Globalized World, p. 15.

4 Heilleiner, Eric. “Fernard Braudel and International Political Economy,” International Studies Notes, Vol. 15 Fall 1990, pp. 73-78.

5 ǴȖȓȤ Ǩ., ǹȖȞȐȖȌȐȕȈȔȐȒȈ ȒțȓȤȚțȘȣ. – M.: ǷȘȖȋȘȍșș, 1973.

6 Ibid, ș. 37.

86

ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȘȈȕ ȏȕȈȕȐȑ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ ȔȖȎȕȖ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȐȚȤ șȍȉȍ Ȋ ȊȐȌȍ ȕȈȗȖȔȐȕȈȦȡȍȑ ȗȈțȚȐȕț șȍȚȒȐ, șȚȘȖȋȖ țȗȖȘȧȌȖȟȍȕȕȖȑ ȖȚȕȖșȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ ȕȍșȒȖȓȤȒȐȝ ȞȍȕȚȘȖȊ»1.

ǴȖȏȈȐȟȕȈȧ ȒțȓȤȚțȘȈ, șȊȖȑșȚȊȍȕȕȈȧ șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȖȔț ȟȍȓȖȊȍȒț, ȖȉȘȈȏțȍȚșȧ ȕȈ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȗȘȐȕȞȐȗȐȈȓȤȕȖ ȐȕȖȋȖ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȈ Ȑ ȜȖȘȔȐȘțȍȚșȧ ȕȈ ȖșȕȖȊȍ șȓțȟȈȧ, ȟȍȘȍȏ ȌȓȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȑ ȗțȚȤ ȗȘȖȉ Ȑ ȖȠȐȉȖȒ. «ǹȖȊȖȒțȗȕȖșȚȤ ȍȋȖ (ȐȕȌȐȊȐȌȈ) ȏȕȈȕȐȑ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȍȚșȧ șȚȈȚȐșȚȐȟȍșȒȐ; Ȗȕ ȟȍȘȗȈȍȚ Ȑȝ Ȑȏ ȎȐȏȕȐ, Ȑȏ ȋȈȏȍȚ, Ȑȏ șȊȍȌȍȕȐȑ, ȌȖȉȣȚȣȝ ȗȖ ȔȍȘȍ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖșȚȐ. dzȐȠȤ ȕȈȒȖȗȐȊ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȣȑ ȖȉȢȍȔ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȐ, Ȗȕ ȕȈȟȐȕȈȍȚ ȖȉȕȈȘțȎȐȊȈȚȤ șȒȘȣȚȣȍ Ȋ ȕȍȑ șȚȘțȒȚțȘȣ»2. «ȅȒȘȈȕ ȏȕȈȕȐȑ» Ȋ ȔȖȏȈȐȟȕȖȑ ȒțȓȤȚțȘȍ, ȚȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, ȉȖȓȤȠȍ ȗȖȝȖȎ ȕȈ ȊȖȑȓȖȒ: «ȏȕȈȕȐȧ șȒȓȈȌȣȊȈȦȚșȧ Ȑȏ ȘȈȏȘȖȏȕȍȕȕȣȝ ȖȉȘȣȊȒȖȊ, șȊȧȏȈȕȕȣȝ ȗȘȖșȚȣȔȐ, ȟȐșȚȖ șȓțȟȈȑȕȣȔȐ ȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȧȔȐ ȉȓȐȏȖșȚȐ ȗȖ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ țșȊȖȍȕȐȧ, ȗȖ șȖȏȊțȟȐȦ ȐȓȐ ȈșșȖȞȐȈȞȐȐ ȐȌȍȑ. ȅȚȐ ȖȉȘȣȊȒȐ ȕȍ ȖȉȘȈȏțȦȚ șȚȘțȒȚțȘȣ, ȕȖ ȖȕȐ ȖȉȓȈȌȈȦȚ șȐȓȖȑ șȞȍȗȓȍȕȐȧ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ ȕȍ ȝțȎȍ șȚȈȘȣȝ ȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȝ șȊȧȏȍȑ ȗȘȐȌȈȍȚ “ȥȒȘȈȕț ȏȕȈȕȐȑ” ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕțȦ ȗȓȖȚȕȖșȚȤ, ȒȖȔȗȈȒȚȕȖșȚȤ, ȕȍ ȔȍȕȤȠțȦ, ȟȍȔ ț “ȚȒȈȕȍȖȉȘȈȏȕȖȋȖ” ȥȒȘȈȕȈ ȋțȔȈȕȐȚȈȘȕȖȋȖ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȊȈȕȐȧ»3.

1.2 ǶșȕȖȊȕȣȍ ȟȍȘȚȣ ȕȖȊȖȑ ȥȗȖȝȐ

ǬȖȊȖȓȤȕȖ ȉȖȓȤȠȖȍ ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȖ șȐȔȗȚȖȔȖȊ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȍȚ șȌȍȓȈȚȤ ȊȣȊȖȌ, ȟȚȖ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȣ, ȕȈȉȓȦȌȈȊȠȐȍșȧ Ȋ ȏȈȗȈȌȕȖȑ ȒțȓȤȚțȘȍ ȕȈȟȐȕȈȧ ș șȍȘȍȌȐȕȣ 70-ȝ ȋȖȌȖȊ, Ȋ 21 ȊȍȒȍ ȖȝȊȈȚȐȓȐ ȗȘȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐ Ȋșȍ șȚȖȘȖȕȣ ȎȐȏȕȐ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȈ, țȊȍȓȐȟȐȊȈȧ ȚȍȔ șȈȔȣȔ ȘȈȏȘȣȊ ȔȍȎȌț șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȖșȚȤȦ Ȑ ȗȘȍȌȣȌțȡȍȑ ȥȗȖȝȖȑ. ǴȐȘ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ Ȋșȍ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȝȈȖȚȐȟȕȣȔ Ȑ ȚțȘȉțȓȍȕȚȕȣȔ, Ȑ ȊȘȍȔȧ ȟȍȚȒȐȝ, ȧșȕȣȝ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȑ ȊȖȏȕȐȒȈȦȡȐȝ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔ, ȗȖ-ȊȐȌȐȔȖȔț, ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ ȕȈȌȖȓȋȖ țȠȓȖ Ȋ ȗȘȖȠȓȖȍ. ǵȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖ ȗȘȐȊȣȒȈȚȤ ȎȐȚȤ Ȋ ȥȗȖȝț, Ȍȓȧ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ ȈȓȤȚȍȘȕȈȚȐȊȕȖșȚȤ ȊȣȏȖȊȖȊ Ȑ ȖȚȊȍȚȖȊ, ȖșȕȖȊȣȊȈȦȡȈȧșȧ ȕȈ ȗȘȍȌȐȒȈȚȍ «ȐȓȐ» («ȐȓȐ ȥȚȖ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȍ, ȐȓȐ ȚȖ»), șȔȍȕȧȍȚșȧ ȕȈ ȗȘȍȌȐȒȈȚ «Ȑ», ȒȖȋȌȈ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣ Ȑ ȐȔȍȦȚ ȗȘȈȊȖ ȕȈ ȎȐȏȕȤ ȖȉȈ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȈ Ȑ ȖȉȈ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ. ȅȚȖ ȊȘȍȔȧ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȔȈȓȣȍ șȖȉȣȚȐȧ ȔȖȋțȚ ȐȕȐȞȐȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȕȍȗȘȍȌȊȐȌȍȕȕȣȍ Ȑ ȔȖȡȕȣȍ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȣ, ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȕȐȍ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȔȈȓȖȊȍȘȖȧȚȕȣȔ. ǺȖ, ȟȚȖ ȍȡȍ ȊȟȍȘȈ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȓȖșȤ ȗȖșȚȖȧȕȕȣȔ Ȑ ȕȈȌȍȎȕȣȔ, ȊȌȘțȋ ȗȘȐȖȉȘȍȚȈȍȚ ȗȖȌȊȐȎȕȖșȚȤ Ȑ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȥȓȈșȚȐȟȕȣȔ.

ǶȗȐȘȈȧșȤ ȕȈ ȚȍȘȔȐȕȖȓȖȋȐȦ, ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȍȔțȦ Ȍȓȧ ȖȗȐșȈȕȐȧ ȓȍȎȈȡȐȝ Ȋ ȍȍ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȘȍȟȐȑ, «ȕȈȘȖȎȌȈȦȡȈȧșȧ ȥȗȖȝȈ ȖȝȊȈȚȣȊȈȍȚ ȕȈȗȘȧȎȍȕȐȧ ȔȍȎȌț ȞȍȕȚȘȖȔ Ȑ ȗȍȘȐȜȍȘȐȍȑ, ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ Ȑ ȚȘȈȕșȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȈȔȐ, ȔȍȎȌț ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȐȏȔȖȔ Ȑ ȒȖșȔȖȗȖȓȐȚȐȏȔȖȔ, <…> ȔȍȎȌț ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȈȔȐ Ȑ ȘȣȕȒȈȔȐ, ȞȍȕȚȘȈȓȐȏȈȞȐȍȑ Ȑ ȌȍȞȍȕȚȘȈȓȐȏȈȞȐȍȑ, ȔȍȎȌț țȕȐȊȍȘșȈȓȐȏȔȖȔ Ȑ ȗȈȘȚȐȒțȓȧȘȐȏ-

1 Ibid, ș. 38.

2 Ibid, ș. 44.

3 Ibid, ș. 45.

87

ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȔȖȔ, ȔȍȎȌț șȒȖȘȖșȚȤȦ Ȑ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȖȔ Ȑ Ț.Ȍ., Ȑ Ț.ȗ.»1. ǩȖȓȍȍ ȚȖȋȖ, Ȋ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȍȔȣȍ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȣ ȊȒȓȦȟȈȍȚșȧ Ȑ ȓȐȟȕȖșȚȤ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ «șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȟȈșȚȤȦ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȈ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȐȏȈȞȐȐ, ȒȈȒ ȓȦȉȈȧ ȌȘțȋȈȧ ȉȈȏȐșȕȈȧ ȒȈȚȍȋȖȘȐȧ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȖ-ȚȍȖȘȍȚȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȌȐșȒțȘșȈ», ȐȓȐ, ȚȖȟȕȍȍ, «ȋȓȖȉȈȓȐȏȈȞȐȧ ȊȒȓȦȟȈȓȈ Ȑ ȗȘȖȌȖȓȎȈȍȚ ȊȒȓȦȟȈȚȤ ȐȕșȚȐȚțȞȐȈȓȐȏȐȘȖȊȈȕȕțȦ ȒȖȕșȚȘțȒȞȐȦ ȓȐȟȕȖșȚȐ»2. Ǫ ȥȚȐȝ țșȓȖȊȐȧȝ «ȘȈȏȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȐȍ ȔȍȎȌț ȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȣȔ Ȑ ȓȖȒȈȓȤȕȣȔ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȖȟȍȕȤ șȓȖȎȕȣȔ Ȑ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȈȚȐȟȕȣȔ»3. ǿȚȖȉȣ șȜȖȒțșȐȘȖȊȈȚȤșȧ ȕȈ ȊȣȠȍȗȘȐȊȍȌȍȕȕȣȝ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȘȍȟȐȧȝ Ȑ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȗȖȓȖȎȕȣȝ ȚȍȕȌȍȕȞȐȧȝ, ǬȎȍȑȔș ǸȖȏȍȕȈț (James Rosenau) ȗȘȍȌȓȈȋȈȍȚ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȚȤ ȚȍȘȔȐȕ ȜȘȈȋȔȍȋȘȈȞȐȧ.

«Ǭȓȧ ȚȖȋȖ ȟȚȖȉȣ ȖȉȓȍȋȟȐȚȤ ȗȖșȚȖȧȕȕȖȍ ȜȖȒțșȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȕȈ ȌȈȕȕȖȑ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊțȦȡȍȑ ȗȍȘșȗȍȒȚȐȊȍ, ȧ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȦ ȚȍȘȔȐȕ ȜȘȈȋȔȍȋȘȈȞȐȧ, ȚȍȘȔȐȕ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȕȈȝȖȌȧȚ ȕȍțȌȖȉȕȣȔ, ȕȖ, ȕȈ ȔȖȑ ȊȏȋȓȧȌ, Ȗȕ ȗȖȔȖȋȈȍȚ ȖȝȊȈȚȐȚȤ ȕȈȗȘȧȎȍȕȐȧ Ȑ ȗȖȓȧȘȕȖșȚȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȔȐ ȖȚȔȍȟȍȕȈ ȕȈȘȖȎȌȈȦȡȈȧșȧ ȥȗȖȝȈ. DzȈȒ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȧ ȜȘȈȋȔȍȋȘȈȞȐȧ ȚȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ ȕȈȒȓȈȌȣȊȈȍȚ ȌȘțȋ ȕȈ ȌȘțȋȈ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȣ ȜȘȈȋȔȍȕȚȈȞȐȐ Ȑ ȐȕȚȍȋȘȈȞȐȐ, ȗȘȖȚȍȒȈȦȡȐȍ ȊȕțȚȘȐ Ȑ șȘȍȌȐ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȑ, șȖȖȉȡȍșȚȊ, șȚȘȈȕ Ȑ ȚȘȈȕșȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ, ȟȚȖ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȗȘȖșȚȖ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣȔ ȕȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȚȤ Ȑȝ Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊțȦȡȐȝ, ȕȖ Ȑ ȗȘȐȟȐȕȕȖ șȊȧȏȈȕȕȣȝ4. ǷȘȐ ȖȚșțȚșȚȊȐȐ ȠȐȘȖȒȖ ȘȈșȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȚȍȘȔȐȕȈ, ȖȌȕȈȒȖ, ȧ țȚȊȍȘȎȌȈȦ, ȟȚȖ Ȕȣ șȒȖȘȍȍȎȐȊȍȔȕȍȊȥȗȖȝț ȋȓȖȉȈȓȐȏȈȞȐȐ, ȕȖȊȥȗȖȝț ȜȘȈȋȔȍȋȘȈȞȐȐ»5.

ǶȟȍȊȐȌȕȖ, ȟȚȖ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȤ Ȑ ȔȕȖȋȖȋȘȈȕȕȖșȚȤ ȕȖȊȖȋȖ ȔȐȘȈ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ șȊȍșȚȐ Ȓ ȒȈȒȖȔț-ȓȐȉȖ ȖȌȕȖȔț ȐșȚȖȟȕȐȒț. ǷȖȔȐȔȖ ȊȓȐȧȕȐȧ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȑ, ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȦȡȐȝ ȗȖșȚȖȧȕȕȖȍ ȌȈȊȓȍȕȐȍ ȕȈ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȖ, ȕȍȔȈȓȖȊȈȎȕȖȍ ȏȕȈȟȍȕȐȍ ȐȔȍȍȚ ȚȖȚ ȜȈȒȚ, ȟȚȖ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȣ ȏȈȚȘȖȕțȓȐ Ȑ ȊȕțȚȘȍȕȕȐȑ ȔȐȘ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȒȈ, ȍȋȖ ȊȖșȗȘȐȧȚȐȍ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȈ Ȑ șȈȔȖȋȖ șȍȉȧ. DzȈȒ ȖȚȔȍȟȈȓ ȖȌȐȕ Ȑȏ ȖȉȖȏȘȍȊȈȚȍȓȍȑ, «ȐȔȍȍȚ ȔȍșȚȖ ȗȖșȚȖȧȕȕȈȧ ȉȖȘȤȉȈ ȔȍȎȌț ȒȖȓȓȍȒȚȐȊȕȣȔ Ȑ ȐȕȌȐȊȐȌțȈȓȤȕȣȔ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȈȔȐ ȊȕțȚȘȐ ȒȈȎȌȖȑ ȓȐȟȕȖșȚȐ»6. ǸȖȏȍȕȈț ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚ șȓȍȌțȦȡȐȍ ȚȘȈȕșȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȐ ȕȈ țȘȖȊȕȍ

1 Luke, Timothy W. and Tuathail Gearoid O. “Global Flowmations, Local Fundamentalism, and Fast Geopolitics: “America” in an Accelerating World Order,” in Herod A., G. O. Tuathail, and S. M. Roberts (eds.). An Unruly World? Globalization, Governance and Geography. London and New York: Routledge, 1998, p. 73. ǾȐȚ. ȗȖ Rosȍnau, The Challenges and Tensions of a Globalized World, p. 16.

2 Robertson, Roland. “Social Theory, Cultural Relativity and the Problem of Globality,” in King Anthony D. (Ed), Culture, Globalization and the World-System: Contemporary Conditions for the Representation of Identity. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 1997, pp. 79-80. ǾȐȚ. ȗȖ Rosȍnau, The Challenges and Tensions of a Globalized World, p. 17.

3 Robertson, Roland, “Mapping the Global Conditions: Globalization as the Central Concept,” in Featherstone Mike (Ed). Global Culture: Nationalism, Globalization, and Modernity. London: Sage Publications, 1990, p. 19.

4 ǬȈȕȕȈȧ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȧ ȊȗȍȘȊȣȍ ȉȣȓȈ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȈȕȈ Ȋ Rosȍnau, James N., “ ‘Fragrmegrative’ Challenges to National Security,” in Heyns Terry (Ed) Understanding U.S. Strategy: A Rȍader. Washington, D.C.: National Defence University, 1983, pp. 65-82. ǯȈȚȍȔ ȖȕȈ ȉȣȓȈ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȈ Ȋ Rosȍnau, James N. “New Dimensions of Security: The Interaction of Globalizing and Localising Dynamics,” Security Dialogue, Vol. 25, September 1994, pp. 255-82.

5 Rosȍnau, The Challenges and Tensions of a Globalized World, p. 14.

6 Triandis, Harry C. Individualism and Collectivism. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1995, p. xiv.

88

ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȓȐȟȕȖșȚȐ, ȗȖȌȗȐȚȣȊȈȦȡȐȍ ȊȖȏȘȈșȚȈȦȡțȦ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȤ șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȈ1. ǪȖ-ȗȍȘȊȣȝ, ȥȚȖ ȗȖȊȣȠȈȦȡȐȑșȧ țȘȖȊȍȕȤ ȒȊȈȓȐȜȐȒȈȞȐȐ, ȕȈȏȣȊȈȍȔȣȑ ȈȊȚȖȘȖȔ «ȘȍȊȖȓȦȞȐȍȑ ȔȈșȚȍȘșȚȊȈ», Ȋ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȍ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ ȕȖȊȣȍ ȗȖȒȖȓȍȕȐȧ ȗȖ ȥȔȖȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȔț, ȐȕȚȍȓȓȍȒȚțȈȓȤȕȖȔț Ȑ ȗȘȖȟȐȔ ȒȘȐȚȍȘȐȧȔ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȧ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖ ȗȘȍȊȖșȝȖȌȧȚ ȗȘȍȌȣȌțȡȐȍ ȗȖȒȖȓȍȕȐȧ. ǪȚȖȘȈȧ ȚȘȈȕșȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȧ șȊȧȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ș ȊȖȏȘȖșȠȍȑ ȋȖȚȖȊȕȖșȚȤȦ ȓȦȌȍȑ ȊșȚțȗȈȚȤ Ȋ ȈșșȖȞȐȈȞȐȐ, șȖȦȏȣ Ȑ ȗȘ., ȟȚȖ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚ Ȓ «ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȔț ȊȏȘȣȊț», ȒȖȋȌȈ Ȋșȍ ȉȖȓȤȠȍȍ ȟȐșȓȖ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȑ șȖ șȓȈȉȖșȊȧȏȈȕȕȖȑ șȚȘțȒȚțȘȖȑ Ȑ ȐȍȘȈȘȝȐȍȑ ȗȘȖȕȐȏȣȊȈȦȚ ȔȐȘȖȊȖȍ șȖȖȉȡȍșȚȊȖ. ǺȘȍȚȤȧ ȚȘȈȕșȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȧ șȊȧȏȈȕȈ ș ȊȖȏȘȈșȚȈȦȡȍȑ ȔȖȉȐȓȤȕȖșȚȤȦ ȓȦȌȍȑ, ș ȓȍȋȒȖșȚȤȦ ȗȍȘȍșȍȒȈȦȡȐȝ ȋȘȈȕȐȞȣ, șȚȘȈȕȣ, – ȧȊȓȍȕȐȍ, ȒȖȚȖȘȖȍ ȈȊȚȖȘ ȕȈȏȣȊȈȍȚ «ȗȍȘȍȊȖȘȖȚȖȔ Ȋ ȔȖȉȐȓȤȕȖșȚȐ». ǷȍȘȍȟȐșȓȍȕȕȣȍ ȊȣȠȍ ȚȘȈȕșȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȐ ȕȈ ȔȐȒȘȖțȘȖȊȕȍ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȧȚ Ȓ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧȔ ȊȖ ȊȓȈșȚȕȣȝ ȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȧȝ, șțȡȍșȚȊțȦȡȐȝ ȔȍȎȌț ȓȐȟȕȖșȚȤȦ Ȑ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȔȐ șȚȘțȒȚțȘȈȔȐ, Ȋ șȖșȚȈȊ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȖȕȈ ȊȝȖȌȐȚ. ȅȚȖ Ȋ șȊȖȦ ȖȟȍȘȍȌȤ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȐșȚȖȟȕȐȒȖȔ ȕȈȗȘȧȎȍȕȕȖșȚȐ Ȑ ȊȖȏȔțȡȍȕȐȑ ȔȍȎȌț ȊȕȖȊȤ ȜȖȘȔȐȘțȍȔȣȔȐ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȣȔȐ șȚȘțȒȚțȘȈȔȐ Ȑ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȍȕȕȣȔȐ ȐȕșȚȐȚțȚȈȔȐ, ȖșȚȈȦȡȐȔȐșȧ ȖșȕȖȊȕȣȔȐ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȈȔȐ ȔȐȘȖȊȖȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȣ2.

ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȊȖ ȊȕțȚȘȍȕȕȍȔ ȔȐȘȍ ȓȦȌȍȑ, ȕȖȊȣȍ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȐ, șȎȐȔȈȦȡȐȍ ȊȘȍȔȧ Ȑ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȖ, ȋȓȖȉȈȓȐȏȈȞȐȧ ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȒȐ, ȊȏȘȣȊȕȖȑ ȘȖșȚ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȑ, ȊȖȏȘȖșȠȈȧ ȔȖȉȐȓȤȕȖșȚȤ ȓȦȌȍȑ, ȜȘȈȋȔȍȕȚȈȞȐȧ ȋȘțȗȗ Ȑ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊ Ȑ ȐȕȚȍȋȘȈȞȐȧ ȘȍȋȐȖȕȖȊ, ȗȖȗȣȚȒȐ șȐȓȖȊȖȋȖ ȊȕȍȌȘȍȕȐȧ ȌȍȔȖȒȘȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȞȍȕȕȖșȚȍȑ Ȑ ȘȈșȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕȍȕȐȍ ȜțȕȌȈȔȍȕȚȈȓȐȏȔȈ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȧȚ Ȓ ȕȍȗȘȍȘȣȊȕȖȔț țșȓȖȎȕȍȕȐȦ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖȑ ȎȐȏȕȐ Ȑ ȗȖȧȊȓȍȕȐȦ ȉȖȓȤȠȖȋȖ ȟȐșȓȈ ȊȖȗȘȖșȖȊ Ȑ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȊȣȕțȎȌȍȕȣ ȘȍȠȈȚȤ ȓȦȌȐ, ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ, ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȈ3. DzȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ ȓȐȟȕȖșȚȤ Ȑ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȖ ȔȖȋțȚ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȘȖȊȈȚȤșȧ Ȓ ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȧȡȐȔ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧȔ? DzȈȒ țȗȘȈȊȓȧȚȤ ȗȈȘȈȓȓȍȓȤȕȖ ȘȈȏȊȖȘȈȟȐȊȈȦȡȐȔȐșȧ ȚȍȕȌȍȕȞȐȧȔȐ ȌȊȐȎȍȕȐȧ Ȓ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȖȔț Ȑ ȓȖȒȈȓȤȕȖȔț? DzȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ ȓȦȌȐ, ȋȘțȗȗȣ, ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ, ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȈ ȔȖȋțȚ ȗȘȖȌȖȓȎȈȚȤ ȌȊȐȎȍȕȐȍ Ȓ ȊȣȉȘȈȕȕȖȑ ȞȍȓȐ, șȖȝȘȈȕȧȧ șȊȖȐ șȚȘțȒȚțȘȣ Ȑ ȕȍ ȌȍȏȖȘȐȍȕȚȐȘțȧșȤ Ȋ ȕȍȗȘȍȘȣȊȕȖ ȔȍȕȧȦȡȍȑșȧ șȘȍȌȍ ȕȍȗȘȐȊȣȟȕȖȑ ȕȖȊȖȑ ȥȗȖȝȐ?4

ǸȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȍȔȣȍ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȧȚ Ȓ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȦ ȘȖȓȐ ȐȕșȚȐȚțȚȈ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȈ Ȑ ȜȖȘȔȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȦ ȕȖȊȣȝ șȜȍȘ ȊȓȈșȚȐ5 (Sphere of Authority (SOA)). ǵȖȊȣȍ șȜȍȘȣ ȊȓȈșȚȐ, ȗȖȧȊȐȊȠȐȍșȧ ȒȈȒ ȘȍȈȒȞȐȧ ȕȈ ȉȣșȚȘȖȔȍȕȧȦȡȐȑșȧ ȔȐȘ Ȑ ȗȘȍșȓȍȌțȦȡȐȍ ȞȍȓȤ ȖȊȓȈȌȍȚȤ Ȑ șȌȍȓȈȚȤ țȗȘȈȊȓȧȍȔȣȔȐ ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȧȡȐȍ ȐȏȔȍȕȍ-

1 Rosȍnau, The Challenges and Tensions of a Globalized World, p. 16. 2 Ibid, p. 16.

3 Ibid, p. 16.

4 ǶȉșțȎȌȍȕȐȍ ȕȈȐȉȖȓȍȍ ȊȈȎȕȣȝ șȚȘțȒȚțȘ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȒȖȓȓȍȒȚȐȊȣ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ șȖȝȘȈȕȧȚȤ ȕȍȚȘȖȕțȚȣȔȐ Ȍȓȧ șȖȗȘȖȚȐȊȓȍȕȐȧ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȍȔȣȔ ȚȍȕȌȍȕȞȐȧȔ, ȔȖȎȕȖ ȕȈȑȚȐ Ȋ: Rosȍnau, James N. The Study of Political Adaptation.

London: Frances Pinter Publishers, Ltd., 1981.

5 Rosȍnau, The Challenges and Tensions of a Globalized World, p. 11-12.

89

ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȕȐȧ, ȚȍȔ ȕȍ Ȕȍȕȍȍ ȕȍ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ șȗȘȈȊȐȚȤșȧ ș ȏȈȌȈȟȍȑ șȖȗȘȧȎȍȕȐȧ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȣȝ Ȑ ȓȖȒȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȚȍȕȌȍȕȞȐȑ Ȋ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȐ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȈ. ǵȍȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ Ȑȏ ȕȖȊȣȝ șȜȍȘ ȊȓȈșȚȐ ȉȘȖșȈȦȚ ȊȣȏȖȊ ȋȖșȞȍȕȚȘȐȟȕȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȍ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊ Ȑ șȈȔȖȔț ȐȕșȚȐȚțȚț ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȈ, ȌȘțȋȐȍ ȗȘȍșȓȍȌțȦȚ ȞȍȓȤ țȒȘȍȗȓȍȕȐȧ șțȡȍșȚȊțȦȡȍȑ ȔȐȘȖȊȖȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȣ. Ǫ ȕȖȊȣȍ șȜȍȘȣ ȊȓȈșȚȐ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȦȚșȧ ȊȒȓȦȟȍȕȣ ȒȈȒ ȕȈșȍȓȍȕȐȍ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȠȐȘȖȒȐȑ ȌȐȈȗȈȏȖȕ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȖȋȖ ȘȖȌȈ ȒȖȓȓȍȒȚȐȊȖȊ – ȕȍȗȘȈȊȐȚȍȓȤșȚȊȍȕȕȣȝ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȑ, șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȌȊȐȎȍȕȐȑ, ȕȈțȟȕȣȝ șȖȖȉȡȍșȚȊ, ȔȍȎȌțȕȈȘȖȌȕȣȝ șȍȚȍȑ Ȑ Ț.Ȍ. ǶȉȢȍȌȐȕȍȕȐȍ Ȋ șȜȍȘț ȊȓȈșȚȐ ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȐȚ ȊșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍ ȚȖȋȖ, ȟȚȖ ȒȈȎȌȈȧ Ȑȏ ȕȐȝ ȈȒȒțȔțȓȐȘțȍȚ Ȋ șȍȉȍ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȣȑ ȊȓȈșȚȕȣȑ ȗȖȚȍȕȞȐȈȓ, ȕȍ țȒȓȈȌȣȊȈȦȡȐȑșȧ Ȋ ȗȘȐȊȣȟȕȣȍ Ȑ ȖȉȡȍȗȘȐȕȧȚȣȍ șȝȍȔȣ ȘȈșȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȧ ȊȓȈșȚȕȣȝ ȗȖȓȕȖȔȖȟȐȑ Ȋ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȍ, ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȍ, ȔȐȘȖȊȖȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȍ1. DzȈȒ ȖȚȔȍȟȈȍȚ Ǩȓȍȕ ǩȍȑȍȘȟȍȕ: «ǴȕȖȋȐȍ ȘȍșȗȍȒȚȈȉȍȓȤȕȣȍ ȒȖȔȔȍȕȚȈȚȖȘȣ șȟȐȚȈȦȚ, ȟȚȖ șȍȋȖȌȕȧ Ȕȣ ȕȈȝȖȌȐȔșȧ ȕȈ ȗȐȒȍ ȗȈȌȍȕȐȧ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȈ ȒȈȒ ȗȍȘȊȐȟȕȖȋȖ ȈȒȚȖȘȈ ȕȈ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ șȞȍȕȍ. ǶȗȗȖȕȐȘțȦȡȐȍ ȈȒȚȖȘȣ, șȖȋȓȈșȕȖ DzȈȘȓț ǩȐȓȤȌȍȘț (Carl Builder) Ȑ ȔȕȖȋȐȔ ȌȘțȋȐȔ, ȜțȕȒȞȐȖȕȐȘțȦȚ ȒȈȒ Ȋ ȉȖȓȤȠȖȔ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȔȈȓȖȔ ȔȈșȠȚȈȉȈȝ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȑ2. ǭȊȘȖȗȍȑșȒȖȍ ȒȓȐȠȍ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚ Ȗ ȚȖȔ, ȟȚȖ ȗȖȓȕȖȔȖȟȐȧ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊ ȗȘȖșȈȟȐȊȈȦȚșȧ ȒȈȒ șȕȐȏț, ȚȈȒ Ȑ șȊȍȘȝț: șțȗȘȈȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȈȧ șȚȘțȒȚțȘȈ ǭȊȘȖȗȍȑșȒȖȋȖ ǹȖȦȏȈ șȖȗȍȘȕȐȟȈȍȚ ș șțȉȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȔȐ țȘȖȊȕȧȔȐ ȗȘȈȊȐȚȍȓȤșȚȊȈ Ȑ ȒȘȖșșȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȔȐ ȘȍȋȐȖȕȈȔȐ ȏȈ ȓȖȧȓȤȕȖșȚȤ Ȑ ȥȕȍȘȋȐȦ ȓȐȌȍȘȖȊ Ȑ ȕȈșȍȓȍȕȐȧ. Ǫ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȖȔ ȔȈșȠȚȈȉȍ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȋȘȈȕȐȞȣ ȗȖȒȘȣȊȈȦȚșȧ ȔțȓȤȚȐȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȔȐ ȒȖȘȗȖȘȈȞȐȧȔȐ, ȚȘȈȕșȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȔȐ ȒȘȐȔȐȕȈȓȤȕȣȔȐ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȧȔȐ, ȕȍȗȘȈȊȐȚȍȓȤșȚȊȍȕȕȣȔȐ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȧȔȐ Ȑ ȘȍȓȐȋȐȖȏȕȣȔȐ ȓȐȌȍȘȈȔȐ Ȑ șȍȒȚȈȔȐ. ǴȍȎȌț ȚȍȔ ȥȚȕȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȋȘțȗȗȣ, ȓȖȒȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ Ȑ șȖșȍȌșȚȊȖ, șȖȏȌȈȕȕȣȍ ș ȚȈȒȐȔ ȚȘțȌȖȔ, ȗȘȍȊȘȈȡȈȦȚșȧ Ȋ ȉȘȖșȈȦȡȐȍ ȊȣȏȖȊ ȈȕȒȓȈȊȣ»3.

ǨȕȈȓȖȋȐȟȕȖȍ ȔȕȍȕȐȍ ȊȣșȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚ Ȑ ǸȖȏȍȕȈț, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ, ȒȖȕșȚȈȚȐȘțȧ ȜȈȒȚ țȔȍȕȤȠȍȕȐȧ țȌȍȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȊȍșȈ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊ, ȗȘȐȝȖȌȐȚ Ȓ ȊȣȊȖȌț, ȟȚȖ ȖȕȐ ȕȍ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȌȍȑșȚȊȖȊȈȚȤ ȘȈșȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕȍȕȐȦ ȐȌȍȑ, ȒȖȕȚȘȖȓȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȗȘȖȚȍȒȈȦȡȐȍ ȟȍȘȍȏ ȋȘȈȕȐȞȣ ȗȖȚȖȒȐ Ȍȍȕȍȋ, ȘȈȉȖȟȍȑ șȐȓȣ, ȗȘȖȌțȒȞȐȐ. ǴȕȖȋȐȍ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȈ ȕȍ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȚȤ ȏȈȒȖȕȕȖșȚȤ, ȗȘȍȗȧȚșȚȊȖȊȈȚȤ ȊșȍȗȘȖȕȐȒȈȦȡȍȑ șȐșȚȍȔȕȖȑ ȒȖȘȘțȗȞȐȐ, ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȖ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȧȚȤ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȕȣȍ șȐȓȣ, ȕȍ ȋȖȊȖȘȧ țȎȍ Ȗȉ ȖȚșȓȍȎȐȊȈȕȐȐ Ȑ ȒȖȕȚȘȖȓȍ ȕȈȘȒȖȚȘȈȜȜȐȒȈ, ȕȍȏȈȒȖȕȕȖȑ ȚȖȘȋȖȊȓȐ ȖȘțȎȐȍȔ, ȗȍȘȍȔȍȡȍȕȐȐ ȚȍȘȘȖȘȐșȚȖȊ Ȑ ȗȘ4. ǻȔȍȕȤȠȍȕȐȍ țȌȍȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȊȍșȈ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȈ ȍșȚȤ șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍ, Ȋ ȚȖȔ ȟȐșȓȍ, Ȑ țȔȍȕȤȠȈȦȡȍȑșȧ ȘȖȓȐ ȚȍȘȘȐȚȖȘȐȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ

1 Ibid, pp. 11-12.

2 Builder, Carl H. “Is It a Transition or a Revolution?” Futures: The Journal of Forecasting, Planning and Policy, Vol 25, March 1993, pp. 155-167.

3 Beyerchen, Clausewitz, Nonlinearity, and the Importance of Imagery, pp. 153-170. 4 Rosȍnau, The Challenges and Tensions of a Globalized World, p. 10.

90