Арзуманян Р., Сложное мышление и сеть парадигма нелинейности и среда безопасности 21 века

ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȘȍȠȍȕȐȍȔ, ȖȘȐȍȕȚȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȣȔ ȕȈ ȊȣȗȖȓȕȍȕȐȍ ȊȕțȚȘȐ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȣȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȣȝ ȗȈȘȈȔȍȚȘȖȊ»1. ǪȐȌȍȕȐȍ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȍȚ șȖȉȖȑ ȕȍȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȖȍ (ȕȍȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȐȔȖȍ) (indeterminate) ȉțȌțȡȍȍ, ȒȖȚȖȘȖȍ ȕȍ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȐȊȈȍȚșȧ șțȡȍșȚȊțȦȡȐȔ ȕȈ șȍȋȖȌȕȧȠȕȐȑ ȌȍȕȤ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȍȔ ȥȚȖȋȖ ȉțȌțȡȍȋȖ. ǶȕȖ șȒȖȘȍȍ ȗȘȍȌȊȐȌȐȚ ȉțȌțȡțȦ ȈȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȤȐȓȐȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ, ȕȍȎȍȓȐȗȘȖȍȞȐȘțȍȚȗȘȍȌȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȣȍȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣ2.

ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, ȕȖȊȣȍ ȔȍȚȖȌȣ ȒȖȖȘȌȐȕȈȞȐȐ Ȑ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ Ȋ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ Ȋ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ ȕȈțȒȐ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ, ȕȈ ȗȍȘȊȣȑ ȊȏȋȓȧȌ, ȗȘȍȌȓȈȋȈȦȚ ȈȓȤȚȍȘȕȈȚȐȊț ȜȖȘȔȈȓȤȕȖ șȚȘțȒȚțȘȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȣȔ ȔȍȚȖȌȈȔ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ. ǪȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ, ȥȚȖ ȊȣȋȓȧȌȐȚ ȏȈȔȈȕȟȐȊȖ: ȕȍ ȗȘȖșȚȖ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȚțȈȓȐȏȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȣ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȒȐ Ȋ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ ǹǨǹ, ȕȖ Ȑ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȗȖșȚȈȊȐȚȤ ȌȊȈ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȈ Ȓ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȦ, «șȊȍȘȝțȊȕȐȏ» Ȑ «șȕȐȏț-ȊȊȍȘȝ», ȒȖȋȌȈ ȜȖȘȔȈȓȤȕȈȧ șȚȘțȒȚțȘȈ ȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȖȋȖ ȐȍȘȈȘȝȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȗȖșȚȈȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȕȍȜȖȘȔȈȓȤȕȖȑ șȍȚȍȊȖȑ. ǶȌȕȈȒȖ ȚȈȒȈȧ ȌȐȝȖȚȖȔȐȧ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȕȍȗȖȏȊȖȓȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȔ țȗȘȖȡȍȕȐȍȔ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȖșȚȐ. ǬȖȓȎȕȣ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȚȤșȧ ȖȉȈ ȊȐȌȈ ȈȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ Ȋ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ, șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȍ ȘȈȏȊȖȘȈȟȐȊȈȦȚșȧ ȗȈȘȈȓȓȍȓȤȕȖ, ȊȏȈȐȔȖȏȈȊȐșȐȔȣ Ȑ ȏȈȟȈșȚțȦ ȚȍșȕȖ ȗȍȘȍȗȓȍȚȍȕȣ, șȖȏȌȈȊȈȧ ȕȍȌȍȓȐȔțȦ ȚȒȈȕȤ ȒȖȖȘȌȐȕȈȞȐȐ Ȑ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ Ȋ șȐșȚȍȔȍ. ǶȚȕȖșȐȚȍȓȤȕȖȍ ȌȖȔȐȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȚȖȑ ȐȓȐ ȐȕȖȑ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȒȐ ȊȖ ȔȕȖȋȖȔ ȏȈȊȐșȐȚ ȖȚ ȏȈȌȈȟ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ ȉȣȚȤ ȘȍȠȍȕȣ, ȗȈȘȈȔȍȚȘȖȊ șȘȍȌȣ, ȗȍȘșȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȗȘȍȌȗȖȟȚȍȕȐȑ Ȑ ȗȘ., ȚȖ ȍșȚȤ ȖȉȡȍȋȖ ȒȖȕȚȍȒșȚȈ Ȑ ȘȍȠȈȍȔȣȝ ȏȈȌȈȟ. ǷȘȐ ȥȚȖȔ ȒȖȕȍȟȕȈȧ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ȌȖȓȎȕȈ ȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȚȤ ȊȖ ȊȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ Ȑ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȚȤ ȖȉȈ ȊȐȌȈ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȈȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȐ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȔȍȝȈȕȐȏȔȣ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ (șȈȔȖșȐȕȝȘȖȕȐȏȈȞȐȧ Ȑ ȒȖȖȘȌȐȕȈȞȐȧ «șȕȐȏț-ȊȊȍȘȝ») ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȦȚșȧ ȕȈȘȧȌț ș ȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȣȔȐ ȔȍȝȈȕȐȏȔȈȔȐ ȐȍȘȈȘȝȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ «șȊȍȘȝț-ȊȕȐȏ».

1 Mumford, M. D., Eubanks, D. L. and Murphy, S. T. “Creating conditions for success: best practices in leading for innovation,” in Conger, J. A. and Riggio, R. E. (eds.). The Practice of Leadership: Developing the Next Generation of Leaders. San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass, 2007, pp. 129-149.

2 Marion, Complexity in Organizations, pp. 253-254.

71

ǫdzǨǪǨ 2. ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ. ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǨȇ ǷǸǰǸǶǬǨ ǪǶDZǵȃ

I. ǶǹǵǶǪǵȃǭ ȅǺǨǷȃ ǸǨǯǪǰǺǰȇ dzǰǵǭDZǵǶDZ ǰ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶDZ ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴ

1.ǬȖȔȐȕȈȕȚȕȈȧ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȈ Ȑ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȈȓȤȕȣȑ șȌȊȐȋ

1.1ǬȖȔȐȕȈȕȚȕȈȧ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȈ Ȑ ȧȏȣȒ ȔȍȚȈȜȖȘȣ

DzȘȈȝ ȉȐȗȖȓȧȘȕȖȋȖ ȔȐȘȈ Ȑ șȚȘȍȔȐȚȍȓȤȕȖȍ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȍ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȖȊ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȐȏȈȞȐȐ ȏȈșȚȈȓȐ ȊȘȈșȗȓȖȝ ȏȈȗȈȌȕțȦ ȜȐȓȖșȖȜșȒțȦ Ȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒțȦ ȔȣșȓȤ. ǸȈȏȊȖȘȈȟȐȊȈȦȡȈȧșȧ ȕȈ ȕȈȠȐȝ ȋȓȈȏȈȝ ȕȖȊȈȧ ȥȗȖȝȈ ȚȘȍȉțȍȚ ȗȍȘȍȖșȔȣșȓȍȕȐȧ ȜțȕȌȈȔȍȕȚȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȐȌȍȑ, ȓȍȎȈȡȐȝ Ȋ ȖșȕȖȊȈȕȐȐ șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȏȈȗȈȌȕȖȋȖ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȈ, Ȋ ȖȟȍȘȍȌȕȖȑ ȘȈȏ Ȋ șȊȖȍȑ ȐșȚȖȘȐȐ șȚȖȧȡȍȋȖ ȗȍȘȍȌ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖșȚȤȦ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȒȐ ȕȖȊȖȑ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȣ. ǷȖȕȧȚȐȍ «ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȈ» ȐȔȍȍȚ ȋȓțȉȖȒȐȍ ȒȖȘȕȐ Ȑ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȈȚȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ȏȈȗȈȌȕȣȔȐ ȜȐȓȖșȖȜșȒȐȔȐ ȠȒȖȓȈȔȐ ȕȈ ȗȘȖȚȧȎȍȕȐȐ ȚȣșȧȟȍȓȍȚȐȑ. ǭȡȍ Ȍȓȧ ǷȓȈȚȖȕȈ ȗȖȏȕȈȊȈȍȔȣȑ ȔȐȘ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȒȈ ȧȊȓȧȓșȧ ȈȗȗȘȖȒșȐȔȈȞȐȍȑ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȣ – ȧșȕȖȋȖ ȖȌȕȖȏȕȈȟȕȖȋȖȖȉȘȈȏȞȈ, ȗȘȐȔȍȘȈ, ȖȚȕȖșȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȋȖȕȍȔȖȎȍȚȌȘțȋȐȝ șțȎȌȍȕȐȑ1.

ǸȈȏȊȐȚȐȍ ȌȈȕȕȖȋȖ ȗȖȕȧȚȐȧ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ Ȓ șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȖȔț ȔȐȘț ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȐȚ Ȋ ȘȈȉȖȚȈȝ ǺȖȔȈșȈ DzțȕȈ, șȖȋȓȈșȕȖ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȔ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȍ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȈ, ȕȈțȟȕȣȑ ȗȘȖȋȘȍșș ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȐȚ ȕȈ ȖșȕȖȊȍ «ȌȖȔȐȕȈȕȚȕȣȝ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔ»2. ǷȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȈ Ȋ ȌȈȕȕȖȔ șȓțȟȈȍ ȚȘȈȒȚțȍȚșȧ ȒȈȒ ȋȘțȗȗȈ ȜțȕȌȈȔȍȕȚȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȗȘȍȌȗȖȓȖȎȍȕȐȑ, ȜȖȘȔȐȘțȦȡȐȝ Ȍȓȧ ȕȈțȟȕȖȋȖ șȖȖȉȡȍșȚȊȈ ȒȈȘȚȐȕț ȔȐȘȈ. ȅȚȖ ȖȉȡȈȧ șȐșȚȍȔȈ ȊȏȋȓȧȌȖȊ, ȜȘȍȑȔ, ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȦȡȐȑ ȗȘȈȊȐȓȈ, ȗȘȐ ȗȖȔȖȡȐ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȍȚșȧ ȖȉȢȍȒȚ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȕȐȧ3. ǷȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȈ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȊȈȍȚ ȉȈȏȐș, ȕȈ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȔ ȊȣșȚȘȈȐȊȈȦȚșȧ Ȋșȍ ȖșȚȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȗȖșȚȘȖȍȕȐȧ Ȑ ȏȈȒȓȦȟȍȕȐȧ. ȅȚȖ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȠȐȘȖȒȖȍ ȗȖȕȧȚȐȍ, ȕȍȎȍȓȐ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȧ, ȍȍ ȕȍȓȤȏȧ șȊȍșȚȐ Ȓ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ, ȔȖȌȍȓȐ Ȑ ȗȘ. DzȈȒ ȗȖȌȟȍȘȒȐȊȈȍȚ Dzțȕ, ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȈ ȕȍ ȌȈȍȚ ȖȚȊȍȚȖȊ Ȑ ȕȍ ȍșȚȤ șȈȔȐ ȏȕȈȕȐȧ, ȒȈȒ ȚȈȒȖȊȣȍ. ǶȕȈ ȌȈȍȚ ȖȉȍȡȈȕȐȍ ȖȚȊȍȚȈ, țȒȈ-

1 Rohmann, Chris. A World of Ideas. New York: Ballantine Books, 1993, p. 295.

2 Kuhn, Thomas S. The Copernican Revolution. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1957.

3 Jablonsky, David. Paradigm Lost? Transitions and the Search for a New World Order. Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute (SSI), US Army War College, July 1995, p. 6. 12 January 2011. http://www.carlisle.army.mil/ssi/ pdffiles/PUB357.pdf.

72

ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȏȣȊȈȍȚ ȗțȚȤ, ȕȈ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȔ ȔȖȎȕȖ ȖȉȕȈȘțȎȐȚȤ ȏȕȈȕȐȧ, ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȊȈȧ «ȒȘȐȚȍȘȐȑ Ȍȓȧ ȊȣȉȖȘȈ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ (ȝȖȚȧ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȈ Ȑ șȟȐȚȈȍȚ Ȑȝ ȌȖȒȈȏȈȕȕȣȔȐ), ȒȈȒ ȗȘȍȌȗȖȓȈȋȈȍȚșȧ, ȐȔȍȦȚ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ»1. ǺȖ ȍșȚȤ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȣ ȖȜȖȘȔȓȧȦȚ ȒȈȒ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȍȕȐȍ ȐȐȕȚȍȘȗȘȍȚȈȞȐȦ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔ, ȚȈȒȐȐȝȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ.

ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, șȈȔȈ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȈ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȣ, ȍȍ ȎȍȓȈȕȐȍ ȌȈȚȤ ȗȖȓȕȖȍ, ȕȍȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȘȍȟȐȊȖȍ ȊȐȌȍȕȐȍ ȖȗȐșȣȊȈȍȔȖȑ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȖșȚȐ, ȌȍȓȈȍȚ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣȔ Ȑ ȌȈȎȍ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȣȔ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȧȏȣȒȈ ȔȍȚȈȜȖȘ ȗȘȐ ȜȖȘȔțȓȐȘȖȊȒȍ ȍȍ ȗȖȓȖȎȍȕȐȑ. ǴȍȚȈȜȖȘȈ ȖȉȣȟȕȖ ȍșȚȤ ȗȈȘȈȌȖȒșȈȓȤȕȖȍ țȚȊȍȘȎȌȍȕȐȍ. ǭșȓȐ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȚȤ ȍȍ ȌȖșȓȖȊȕȖ, șȖȋȓȈșȕȖ ȏȈȒȖȕȈȔ ȈȉșȚȘȈȒȚȕȖȑ ȘȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖșȚȐ (ȔȈȚȍȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȓȖȋȐȒȐ, ȚȈȉȓȐȞ ȐșȚȐȕȕȖșȚȐ Ȑ ȗȘ.), ȖȕȈ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȓȖȎȤȦ, ȕȖ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȗȘȈȊȌȖȑ șȖȋȓȈșȕȖ ȗȘȈȊȐȓȈȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȕȖȑ ȘȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖșȚȐ (ȚȖ ȍșȚȤ ȐșȒțșșȚȊȈ)2. ǴȍȚȈȜȖȘȣ ȖȚȖȉȘȈȎȈȦȚșȧ ȟȍȘȍȏ ȘȍȟȍȊȣȍ ȗȈȚȚȍȘȕȣ Ȑ ȘȈȏȌȘȈȎȈȦȚ, ȗȖȒȈ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȕȖȊȣȔȐ, ȖȌȕȈȒȖ șȖ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȍȔ ȖȕȐ ȊȝȖȌȧȚ Ȋ ȖȉȐȝȖȌ, șȚȈȕȖȊȧȚșȧ ȖȉȣȌȍȕȕȣȔȐ Ȑ ȕȍȏȈȔȍȚȕȣȔȐ, ȚȈȒȐȔȐ ȒȈȒ «ȒȘȣȓȤȧ ȏȌȈȕȐȧ», «ȊȏȊȍȠȐȊȈȕȐȍ șȊȖȐȝ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȍȑ» Ȑ ȗȘ. ǪȈȎȕȖșȚȤ ȔȍȚȈȜȖȘȣ, țȔȍȕȐȧ ȖȗȍȘȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȍȦ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȓȈșȤ ȊșȍȋȌȈ. ǨȘȐșȚȖȚȍȓȤ ȗȐșȈȓ: «ǹȚȈȚȤ ȔȈșȚȍȘȖȔ ȔȍȚȈȜȖȘȣ – șȈȔȖȍ ȊȍȓȐȟȈȑȠȍȍ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȍ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȒȈ». ȅȚȖ ȖȌȕȈ Ȑȏ Țȍȝ Ȋȍȡȍȑ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȔ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ ȊȣțȟȐȚȤșȧ. «ǴȍȚȈȜȖȘȈ – ȥȚȖ ȖȌȕȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȖ “ȌȈȘ ȋȍȕȐȧ” Ȑ ȔȈșȚȍȘșȚȊȖ ȋȍȖȔȍȚȘȈ, ȗȘȍȊȖșȝȖȌȕȖ ȊȓȈȌȍȦȡȍȋȖ ȕȈțȒȖȑ ȗȘȖȗȖȘȞȐȑ». Ƕȕ ȚȈȒȎȍ țȚȊȍȘȎȌȈȓ, ȟȚȖ ȔȍȚȈȜȖȘȈ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȚȈȒȐȔ ȉȍȏțșȓȖȊȕȣȔ ȐȕȌȐȒȈȚȖȘȖȔ ȊȓȈșȚȐ, ȟȚȖ ȕȍ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȐȚ Ȍȓȧ țȗȖȚȘȍȉȓȍȕȐȧ ȘȈȉȈȔȐ3.

Ǫ ȗȖșȓȍȌȕȐȍ ȕȍșȒȖȓȤȒȖ ȊȍȒȖȊ ȐșȚȖȟȕȐȒȖȔ ȔȍȚȈȜȖȘ Ȑ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔ, ȗȘȐȔȍȕȧȍȔȣȝ Ȋ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȖȑ, ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ, ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ șȜȍȘȈȝ, șȚȈȕȖȊȐȓȈșȤ ȕȈțȒȈ, ȘȖȓȤ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ ȚȍȔ șȈȔȣȔ ȕȍ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȐȊȈȓȈșȤ ȋȘȈȕȐȞȈȔȐ ȕȈțȟȕȖȋȖ ȗȖȏȕȈȕȐȧ. ǵȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ, ȕȤȦȚȖȕȖȊșȒȈȧ ȕȈțȒȈ ȌȈȍȚ ȊșȍȖȝȊȈȚȣȊȈȦȡțȦ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔț, ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘȐȏțȦȡțȦ ȊșȦ șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕțȦ ȏȈȗȈȌȕțȦ ȒțȓȤȚțȘț4. ȅȚȖ ȖȏȕȈȟȈȍȚ, ȟȚȖ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖ ȉȣȚȤ ȊȍșȤȔȈ ȖșȚȖȘȖȎȕȣȔȐ ȗȘȐ ȘȈșșȔȖȚȘȍȕȐȐ ȕȖȊȣȝ ȔȍȚȈȜȖȘ Ȑ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔ. «ǪȈȎȕȖ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȚȤ, ȟȚȖ ȕȈȠȐ ȔȍȚȈȜȖȘȣ, ȒȈȒ Ȑ ȞȍȓȐ, “ȗȖȓȍ șȖȘȍȊȕȖȊȈȕȐȧ Ȑ țșȐȓȐȑ”. ǸȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȖȔ șȜȖȘȔțȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȣȝ ȐȌȍȑ, ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȔȐȘȈ, ȗȖȗȣȚȖȒ ȒȖȕȚȘȖȓȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ șȖȉȣȚȐȧ Ȑ ȌȖșȚȐȋȈȚȤ Ȟȍȓȍȑ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȗȖșȚȖȧȕȕȖȍ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȍ șȈȔȐȝ șȖȉȣȚȐȑ. Ǵȣ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ ȉȣȚȤ ȖșȚȖȘȖȎȕȣ, ȊȕȍȌȘȧȧ ȐȌȍȐ Ȑ “ȒȈȘȚȐȕȣ ȔȐȘȈ” Ȋ ȖșȕȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȔȐȘȈ, ȚȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȖȕȖ ȟȈșȚȖ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ȒȈȚȈșȚȘȖȜȐȟȍșȒȐ ȝȘțȗȒȐȔ Ȑ ȓȖȔȒȐȔ ȐȓȐ ȗȖȌȊȐȎȕȣȔ

1 Kuhn, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, p. 37.

2 Beyerchen, Alan D. “Clausewitz, Nonlinearity and the Importance of Imagery,” in Alberts David S. and Thomas J. Czerwinski (eds.). Complexity, Global Politics and National Security, Washington: National Defense University, 1997, p. 74. 12 January 2011. http://www.clausewitz.com/readings/Beyerchen/BeyerschenNonlinearity2.pdf.

3 Fiumara, Gemma Corradi. The Metaphoric Process: Connections between Language and Life. London: Routledge, 1995, pp. 1-5.

4 Schmitt, John F. “Command and (Out of Control): The Military Implications of Complexity Theory,” in Alberts David S. and Thomas J. Czerwinski (eds.). Complexity, Global Politics and National Security. Washington, DC: National Defense University, June 1997, p. 99. 12 January 2011. http://www.dodccrp. org/publications/pdf/Alberts_Complexity_Global.pdf.

73

ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȐȌȍȜȖȘȔȐȘțȦȡȐȔșȧ, ȒȈȒ ȓȈȊȈ»1. ǹ ȌȘțȋȖȑ șȚȖȘȖȕȣ, ȐșȒțșșȚȊȍȕȕȖȍ ȚȖȘȔȖȎȍȕȐȍ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȖȊ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȧ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȈ Ȑ ȗȖȧȊȓȍȕȐȧ ȕȖȊȣȝ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȕȍȌȖȗțșȚȐȔȖ,

Ȑ«ȚȖȚ, ȒȚȖ ȕȍ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȧȍȚ ȕȖȊȣȍ șȘȍȌșȚȊȈ, ȌȖȓȎȍȕ ȖȎȐȌȈȚȤ ȕȖȊȣȝ ȉȍȌșȚȊȐȑ – ȊȘȍȔȧ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȊȍȓȐȟȈȑȠȐȔ ȕȖȊȈȚȖȘȖȔ»2. ǹ ȌȈȕȕȖȑ ȚȖȟȒȐ ȏȘȍȕȐȧ, ȘȖȓȤ Ȑ ȏȕȈȟȍȕȐȍ ȔȍȚȈȜȖȘȣ ȏȈȒȓȦȟȈȍȚșȧ ȚȈȒȎȍ Ȋ ȚȖȔ, ȟȚȖ ȖȕȈ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȍȚ ȗȖșȚȐȋȈȚȤ Ȑ «șȝȊȈȚȣȊȈȚȤ» ȗȘȖȞȍșșȣ, ȐȏȉȍȋȈȧ șȖȉȓȈȏȕȈ ȗȖȐșȒȈ ȗȘȖșȚȖȚȣ Ȑ ȈȕȈȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȖșȚȐ ȚȈȔ, ȋȌȍ ȖȕȐ ȕȍȌȖșȚȐȎȐȔȣ.

ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, ȜȐȓȖșȖȜșȒȈȧ Ȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȈȧ ȔȣșȓȤ ǯȈȗȈȌȈ ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ ȌȈȊȕȖ ȗȖȕȧȓȈ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖșȚȤ ȖșȔȣșȓȍȕȐȧ ȜȈȒȚȈ ȒȈȘȌȐȕȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȑ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȗȍȘȐȖȌȐȟȍșȒȐ ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȧȚ Ȋ ȏȈȗȈȌȕȖȔ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȍ. ǷȐȚȍȘ ǬȘțȒȍȘ (Peter Drucker) ȖȚȔȍȟȈȓ, ȟȚȖ «ȒȈȎȌȣȍ ȕȍșȒȖȓȤȒȖ șȖȚȍȕ ȓȍȚ Ȋ ȏȈȗȈȌȕȖȑ ȐșȚȖȘȐȐ ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȧȚ ȘȍȏȒȐȍ ȚȘȈȕșȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȐ, Ȋ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȖ ȗȍȘȍșȚȘȈȐȊȈȍȚ șȍȉȧ: șȊȖȍ ȊȐȌȍȕȐȍ ȔȐȘȈ, ȉȈȏȐșȕȣȍ ȞȍȕȕȖșȚȐ, șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕțȦ Ȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒțȦ șȚȘțȒȚțȘȣ, șȊȖȍ ȐșȒțșșȚȊȖ, ȖșȕȖȊȕȣȍ ȐȕșȚȐȚțȚȣ. ǷȧȚȤȌȍșȧȚ ȓȍȚ ȕȈȏȈȌ ȥȚȖ ȉȣȓ ȕȖȊȣȑ ȔȐȘ, Ȑ ȓȦȌȐ, ȘȖȌȐȊȠȐȍșȧ ȚȖȋȌȈ, ȕȍ ȔȖȋȓȐ ȌȈȎȍ ȊȖȖȉȘȈȏȐȚȤ ȔȐȘ, Ȋ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȔ ȎȐȓȐ Ȑȝ ȗȘȈȌȍȌȣ Ȑ ȘȖȌȐȓȐșȤ Ȑȝ șȖȉșȚȊȍȕȕȣȍ ȘȖȌȐȚȍȓȐ»3.

1.2 ǷȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȈȓȤȕȣȑ șȌȊȐȋ

ǺȖȔȈș Dzțȕ ȗȘȍȌȓȈȋȈȍȚ ȖȗȐșȣȊȈȚȤ ȚȈȒȖȋȖ ȘȖȌȈ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ Ȋ ȚȍȘȔȐȕȈȝ șȚȈȕȖȊȓȍȕȐȧ Ȑ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȧ ȌȖȔȐȕȈȕȚȕȣȝ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔ. ǵȈ ȕȈȟȈȓȤȕȖȔ ȥȚȈȗȍ șțȡȍșȚȊțȦȡȈȧ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȈ țȌȖȊȓȍȚȊȖȘȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ ȖȗȐșȣȊȈȍȚ ȧȊȓȍȕȐȧ Ȑ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȣ Ȑ ȕȍ ȕțȎȌȈȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȒȈȒȖȔ-ȓȐȉȖ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȐ ȐȓȐ țșȖȊȍȘȠȍȕșȚȊȖȊȈȕȐȐ. ǭȍ șȐȓȈ Ȑ ȔȖȡȤ ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȣ, ȟȚȖȉȣ țȒȈȏȣȊȈȚȤ ȗțȚȐ, ȕȈ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȗȖȓțȟȈȦȚ șȊȖȍ ȖȉȢȧșȕȍȕȐȍ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȈȍȔȣȍ ȧȊȓȍȕȐȧ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȎȐȏȕȐ, ȕȈțȒȐ Ȑ ȗȘ. ǬȖ Țȍȝ ȗȖȘ, ȗȖȒȈ ȍȑ ȥȚȖ țȌȈȍȚșȧ, ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȈ ȊȣȋȓȧȌȐȚ ȕȍȏȣȉȓȍȔȖȑ, Ȑ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȈȍȔȣȍ ȧȊȓȍȕȐȧ ȐȕȚȍȘȗȘȍȚȐȘțȦȚșȧ ȟȍȘȍȏ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȍ Ȑ ȈȘȚȐȒțȓȧȞȐȦ ȕȖȊȣȝ ȚȍȖȘȐȑ Ȋ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ șțȡȍșȚȊțȦȡȍȑ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȣ4.

ǶȌȕȈȒȖ Ȋ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȍ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȧ, ȗȖȧȊȓȍȕȐȧ ȕȖȊȣȝ ȜȈȒȚȖȊ, ȧȊȓȍȕȐȑ ȌȖȔȐȕȈȕȚȕȈȧ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȈ ȕȈȟȐȕȈȍȚ ȗȍȘȍȗȖȓȕȧȚȤșȧ ȈȕȖȔȈȓȐȧȔȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȖȕȈ ȕȍ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȈșșȐȔȐȓȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ. DzȈȒ șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍ, ȗȖȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖșȚȤ Ȋ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȐ ȕȖȊȖȋȖ ȊȐȌȍȕȐȧ, Ȋ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȋȖ ȔȖȎȕȖ ȉȣȓȖ ȉȣ ȖȉȢȧșȕȐȚȤ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȈȍȔȣȍ

1 Saperstein, Alvin M. “Complexity, Chaos, and National Security Policy: Metaphors or Tools?” in Alberts, David S. and Thomas J. Czerwinski, eds. Complexity, Global Politics and National Security. Washington, DC: National Defense University, June 1997, p. 48, 26. 12 January 2011.

http://www.dodccrp. org/files/Alberts_Complexity_Global.pdf.

2 Bacon, Francis (1561 – 1626). “XXIV. On Innovation,” Essays (1597). In Francis Bacon and Basil Montagu. The Works of Francis Bacon, Lord Chancellor of England, Vol. 1, Philadelphia: Parry and McMillan, 1852, p. 32. 12 January 2011. http:// ebooks.adelaide.edu.au/b/bacon/francis/b12e/essay24.html.

3 Drucker, Peter Ferdinand. Post-Capitalist Society. New York: HarperCollins Publishers, 1993, p. 1. 4 Kuhn, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, p. 97.

74

ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȧȊȓȍȕȐȧ. ǰȔȍȍȚ ȔȍșȚȖ «ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȈȓȤȕȣȑ șȌȊȐȋ»1, șȐȔȗȚȖȔȖȔ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȋȖ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȗȖȧȊȓȍȕȐȍ ȕȖȊȣȝ «ȘȍȊȖȓȦȞȐȖȕȕȣȝ ȕȈțȒ»2. ǹȚȈȘȈȧ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȈ ȘȈȏȢȍȌȈȍȚșȧ ȕȖȊȣȔ ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȍȔ, ȕȈșȚțȗȈȍȚ ȗȍȘȍȝȖȌȕȣȑ ȗȍȘȐȖȌ, ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘȕȖȑ ȟȍȘȚȖȑ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȋȖ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȕȍșȚȈȉȐȓȤȕȖșȚȤ. Ǫ ȒȖȕȞȍ ȒȖȕȞȖȊ, ȕȖȊȈȧ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȈ ȏȈȕȐȔȈȍȚ șȊȖȍ ȔȍșȚȖ, ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȊȈȧ ȕȖȊȖȍ ȊȐȌȍȕȐȍ ȔȐȘȈ (Weltanschauung) Ȑ șȗȖșȖȉȕȖșȚȤ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȤ ȕȖȊȣȍ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȐȋȖȘȐȏȖȕȚȣ3. ǶȌȕȈȒȖ, ȒȈȒ ȖȚȔȍȟȈȍȚ Dzțȕ, șȚȈȘȈȧ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȈ ȕȍ țșȚțȗȈȍȚ ȉȍȏ ȉȖȧ, Ȑ «…ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȈ ȖȉȢȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȕȍșȖșȚȖȧȚȍȓȤȕȖȑ, ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȒȖȋȌȈ ȈȓȤȚȍȘȕȈȚȐȊȕȣȑ ȒȈȕȌȐȌȈȚ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȏȈȕȧȚȤ ȍȍ ȔȍșȚȖ»4. ȅȚȖ ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ ȉȖȓȍȏȕȍȕȕȣȑ ȗȘȖȞȍșș, ȖșȖȉȍȕȕȖ ȒȖȋȌȈ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȈȧ șȚȘțȒȚțȘȈ, ȐșȚȖȟȕȐȒȐ ȊȓȈșȚȐ, ȐȕșȚȐȚțȚȣ ȖȉțȟȍȕȐȧ Ȑ ȗȘȖȜȍșșȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȒȈȘȤȍȘȣ ȖșȕȖȊȈȕȣ ȕȈ ȗȖȓȖȎȍȕȐȧȝ șȚȈȘȖȑ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȣ5.

Ǫ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ ȗȘȐȔȍȘȈ, ȐȓȓȦșȚȘȐȘțȦȡȍȋȖ ȖȗȐșȈȕȕȣȑ ȊȣȠȍ ȗȘȖȞȍșș șȔȍȕȣ ȌȖȔȐȕȈȕȚȕȖȑ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȣ, ȔȖȎȕȖ ȗȘȐȊȍșȚȐ șȘȍȌȕȍȊȍȒȖȊțȦ ǭȊȘȖȗț, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ ȖȜȖȘȔȓȧȓȈșȤ ȚȡȈȚȍȓȤȕȖ ȖȚȘȈȉȖȚȈȕȕȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȖȑ ȊȏȋȓȧȌȖȊ, șȖȍȌȐȕȧȦȡȍȑ ȚȍȖȓȖȋȐȦ ș ȗȘȐȘȖȌȕȣȔȐ ȧȊȓȍȕȐȧȔȐ Ȑ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȣȔȐ ȈșȗȍȒȚȈȔȐ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȉȣȚȐȧ. Ǫ ȍȍ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȓȍȎȈȓȈ ȋȍȖȞȍȕȚȘȐȟȕȈȧ ȗȚȖȓȍȔȍȍȊșȒȈȧ șȐșȚȍȔȈ – ȚȖȟȕȈȧ, ȖȉȖȏȘȍȊȈȍȔȈȧ Ȑ ȕȍȗȘȈȊȐȓȤȕȈȧ. ǶȌȕȈȒȖ ȕȈ ȗȘȖȚȧȎȍȕȐȐ șȚȖȓȍȚȐȑ ȐȔȍȕȕȖ ȖȕȈ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȓȈ ȊșȍȓȍȕȕțȦ ȍȊȘȖȗȍȑșȒȖȋȖ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȒȈ Ȑ ȍȋȖ ȔȍșȚȖ Ȋ ȕȍȔ6. Dz ȕȈȟȈȓț 16 ȊȍȒȈ Ȋșȍ ȉȖȓȤȠȍȍ ȟȐșȓȖ ȈșȚȘȖȕȖȔȖȊ șȚȈȓȐ ȗȘȐȏȕȈȊȈȚȤ, ȟȚȖ ȗȚȖȓȍȔȍȍȊșȒȈȧ șȐșȚȍȔȈ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȕȍțȌȖȊȓȍȚȊȖȘȐȚȍȓȤȕȖȑ, ȟȚȖ, Ȋ ȒȖȕȍȟȕȖȔ șȟȍȚȍ, ȗȘȐȊȍȓȖ Ȓ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȒȍ DzȖȗȍȘȕȐȒȖȔ ȕȖȊȖȑ7. ǫȈȓȐȓȍȖ ǫȈȓȐȓȍȑ, ȉȓȈȋȖȌȈȘȧ șȊȖȍȑ ȋȍȕȐȈȓȤȕȖșȚȐ Ȑ ȗȘȍȐȔțȡȍșȚȊț Ȋ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȐ (ȚȍȓȍșȒȖȗ), ȕȈȠȍȓ ȈȘȋțȔȍȕȚȣ Ȋ ȗȖȌȌȍȘȎȒț ȋȍȓȐȖȞȍȕȚȘȐȟȕȖȑ ȊșȍȓȍȕȕȖȑ, ȚȍȔ șȈȔȣȔ ȉȘȖșȐȊ ȊȣȏȖȊ ȚȣșȧȟȍȓȍȚȕȍȑ ȌȖȋȔȍ ȒȈȚȖȓȐȞȐȏȔȈ Ȑ ȉȍȏȊȖȏȊȘȈȚȕȖ ȐȏȔȍȕȐȊ ȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȧ ȔȍȎȌț ȟȍȓȖȊȍȒȖȔ, ȕȈțȒȖȑ, ȘȍȓȐȋȐȍȑ Ȑ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȖȑ8.

2. ǶșȕȖȊȕȣȍ ȥȚȈȗȣ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȧ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȑ Ȑ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȑ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔ

2.1. dzȐȕȍȑȕȈȧ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȈ

ǬȖ ȗȖșȓȍȌȕȍȋȖ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ ȌȖȔȐȕȈȕȚȕȖȑ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȖȑ ȏȈȗȈȌȕȖȋȖ ȔȐȘȈ ȧȊȓȧȓȈșȤ ȕȤȦȚȖȕȖȊșȒȈȧ ȐȓȐ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȈȧ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȈ. Ǫ șȊȖȍȑ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȖȕȈ ȗȘȐȌȍȘȎȐȊȈȍȚșȧ ȔȍȝȈȕȐșȚȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȊȐȌȍȕȐȧ ȔȐȘȈ – ȗȖȌȝȖȌ, ȋȓțȉȖȒȖ țȒȖȘȍȕȍȕȕȣȑ Ȋ șȖȏȕȈȕȐȐ Ȑ

1 Rohmann, World of Ideas, p. 296.

2 Ibid.

3 Jablonsky, Paradigm Lost?

4 Kuhn, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, p. 77, 145. 5 Rohmann, World of Ideas, p. 296.

6 Ibid.

7 Kuhn, Thomas S. The Copernican Revolution. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1957, pp. 135-143.

8 Sorbel, Dava. Galileo’s Daughter: A Historical Memoir of Science, Faith and Love. New York: Walker and Company, 1999, pp. 50-53.

75

ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȐ ȏȈȗȈȌȕȖȋȖ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȒȈ. DzȈȒ ȗȐȠȍȚ Ǩȓȍȕ ǩȍȑȍȘȟȍȕ (Alan Beyerchen), ȖȌȐȕ Ȑȝ ȈȊȚȖȘȐȚȍȚȕȣȝ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȍȑ, ȘȈȉȖȚȈȦȡȐȑ Ȋ șȜȍȘȍ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȔȍȚȈȜȖȘȣ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȐ Ȓ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȈȔ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȐ Ȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȋȖ șȚȘȖȐȚȍȓȤșȚȊȈ: «DzȖȕȕȖȚȈȞȐȧ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȐ Ȋșȍ ȍȡȍ ȐȋȘȈȍȚ ȉȖȓȤȠțȦ ȘȖȓȤ Ȋ ȕȈȠȍȔ ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȐ, ȖșȖȉȍȕȕȖ Ȋ ȔȍȝȈȕȐȒȍ, țșȗȍȝ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ ȉȍȏ ȒȖȓȍȉȈȕȐȑ ȗȣȚȈȦȚșȧ ȒȖȗȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȔȕȖȋȐȍ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȕȈțȟȕȣȍ ȌȐșȞȐȗȓȐȕȣ. dzȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȤ ȗȘȍȌȓȈȋȈȍȚ șȚȘțȒȚțȘȕțȦ șȚȈȉȐȓȤȕȖșȚȤ Ȑ ȌȍȓȈȍȚ ȈȒȞȍȕȚ ȕȈ ȘȈȊȕȖȊȍșȐȐ. ǶȕȈ ȓȍȋȐȚȐȔȐȘțȍȚ ȗȘȖșȚȣȍ ȥȒșȚȘȈȗȖȓȧȞȐȐ ȐȏȊȍșȚȕȖȋȖ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȧ, ȔȈșȠȚȈȉȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ Ȑ ȘȈȏȌȍȓȍȕȐȍ ȕȈ ȟȈșȚȐ. ǶȕȈ ȖȉȍȡȈȍȚ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȖșȚȤ Ȑ, șȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȤȕȖ, ȒȖȕȚȘȖȓȤ – ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ, ȖȟȍȕȤ ȔȖȡȕȈȧ ȗȘȐȚȧȋȈȚȍȓȤȕȖșȚȤ»1.

ǹȊȖȑșȚȊȈ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȐ ȊȒȓȦȟȈȦȚ ȗȘȖȗȖȘȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖșȚȤ, ȈȌȌȐȚȐȊȕȖșȚȤ, ȔȈșȠȚȈȉȐȘțȍȔȖșȚȤ, ȘȍȌțȒȞȐȖȕȐȏȔ2. ǷȘȖȗȖȘȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖșȚȤ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚ Ȓ ȚȖȔț, ȟȚȖ Ȍȓȧ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ ȔȈȓȖȍ ȊȝȖȌȕȖȍ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȍ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚ Ȓ ȔȈȓȖȔț ȊȣȝȖȌȕȖȔț ȖȚȒȓȐȒț, ȉȖȓȤȠȖȍ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȍ – Ȓ ȉȖȓȤȠȖȔț. ǨȌȌȐȚȐȊȕȖșȚȤ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȊȈȍȚ ȓȍȋȐȚȐȔȕȖșȚȤ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȋȖ ȘȍȌțȒȞȐȖȕȐȏȔȈ, – ȗȘȈȒȚȐȒȐ ȘȈȏȌȍȓȍȕȐȧ ȉȖȓȤȠȖȑ Ȑ șȓȖȎȕȖȑ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȣ ȕȈ ȘȧȌ ȖȚȕȖșȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ ȕȍȉȖȓȤȠȐȝ Ȑ Ȕȍȕȍȍ șȓȖȎȕȣȝ ȏȈȌȈȟ, ȟȍȘȍȏ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȍ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ Ȑ șțȗȍȘȗȖȏȐȞȐȦ ȗȖȓțȟȍȕȕȣȝ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȖȊ ȕȈȝȖȌȐȚșȧ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȍ ȐșȝȖȌȕȖȑ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȣ3. ǴȈșȠȚȈȉȐȘțȍȔȖșȚȤ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍȔ ȗȘȖȗȖȘȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖșȚȐ Ȑ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȍȚ ȘȈșȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕȧȚȤ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣ, ȗȖȓțȟȍȕȕȣȍ Ȍȓȧ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȖȌȕȖȋȖ ȔȈșȠȚȈȉȈ, ȕȈ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȌȘțȋȖȋȖ ȗțȚȍȔ ȗȘȖȗȖȘȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȊȝȖȌȕȣȝ Ȑ, șȖȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊȍȕȕȖ, ȗȖȓțȟȈȍȔȣȝ ȊȣȝȖȌȕȣȝ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ. ǭșȓȐ șȐșȚȍȔȈ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȑ, ȚȖ ȖȉȓȈȌȈȕȐȍ ȓȐȠȤ ȟȈșȚȐȟȕȖȑ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȍȑ Ȗ ȍȍ șȚȘțȒȚțȘȍ Ȑ ȜțȕȒȞȐȧȝ ȟȈȡȍ ȊșȍȋȖ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȍȚ «ȊȣȟȐșȓȐȚȤ» șȊȖȑșȚȊȈ Ȑ ȜțȕȒȞȐȐ șȐșȚȍȔȣ Ȋ ȞȍȓȖȔ.

dzȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȤ ȗȘȖȕȐȏȣȊȈȍȚ Ȋșȍ șȚȖȘȖȕȣ ȎȐȏȕȐ ȏȈȗȈȌȕȖȋȖ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȈ. ǴȍȚȈȜȖȘȖȑ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȑ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȣ ȔȖȋțȚ șȓțȎȐȚȤ ȔȍȝȈȕȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȟȈșȣ – ȚȖȕȒȖ ȕȈșȚȘȖȍȕȕȣȑ ȔȍȝȈȕȐȏȔ, ȘȈȉȖȚȈȦȡȐȑ ȘȖȊȕȖ Ȑ ȚȖȟȕȖ, ȚȐȒȈȦȡȐȑ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȖ, ȐȏȔȍȘȐȔȖ Ȑ ȕȈȌȍȎȕȖ. DzȖȋȌȈ ȌȍȓȈ ȐȌțȚ ȝȖȘȖȠȖ, ȚȖ Ȋșȍ «ȐȌȍȚ ȒȈȒ ȟȈșȣ», ȍșȓȐ

1 Beyerchen, Clausewitz, Nonlinearity and the Importance of Imagery, pp. 73-74.

2 ǷȘȐȕȞȐȗ ȗȘȖȗȖȘȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖșȚȐ ȖȏȕȈȟȈȍȚ, ȟȚȖ ȍșȓȐ F – ȜțȕȒȞȐȧ ȐȓȐ ȖȗȍȘȈȚȖȘ, Ȉ – ȒȖȕșȚȈȕȚȈ, x – ȊȝȖȌȣ șȐșȚȍȔȣ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ, Ȋ șȊȖȦ ȖȟȍȘȍȌȤ, ȔȖȋțȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȗȍȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȔȐ ȐȓȐ ȜțȕȒȞȐȧȔȐ, ȚȖ F(ax)=aF(x). ǷȘȐȕȞȐȗ ȈȌȌȐȚȐȊȕȖșȚȐ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚ Ȗ ȚȖȔ, ȟȚȖ ȕȍ ȐȔȍȍȚ ȏȕȈȟȍȕȐȧ – ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȖȊȈȚȤ ȕȈ ȊȝȖȌȣ șȐșȚȍȔȣ x1 Ȑ ȝ2 ȖȌȕȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȖ, ș ȗȖȓțȟȍȕȐȍȔ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȖȋȖ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȐȘțȦȡȍȋȖ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȈ ȕȈ ȊȣȝȖȌȍ șȐșȚȍȔȣ, ȐȓȐ ȌȍȓȈȚȤ ȥȚȖ ș ȘȈȏȌȍȓȍȕȐȍȔ ȗȖ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȕȈ ȊȣȝȖȌȍ șȐșȚȍȔȣ șțȔȔȐȘțȦȚșȧ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȣ ȖȚ ȒȈȎȌȖȋȖ ȊȝȖȌȕȖȋȖ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ Ȋ ȖȚȌȍȓȤȕȖșȚȐ, ȚȖ ȍșȚȤ F (x1+x2)=F(x1)+F(x2). ǭșȓȐ ȌȈȕȕȣȍ țșȓȖȊȐȧ ȕȍ ȊȣȗȖȓȕȧȦȚșȧ, ȚȖ șȐșȚȍȔȈ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȑ. ǭșȓȐ șȐșȚȍȔȈ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȈȌȍȒȊȈȚȕȖ ȖȗȐșȈȕȈ ȗȘȐ ȗȖȔȖȡȐ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȑ șțȔȔȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ, ȊȣȟȐȚȈȕȐȧ, țȔȕȖȎȍȕȐȧ ȕȈ ȒȖȕșȚȈȕȚț, ȐȕȚȍȋȘȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ Ȑ ȌȐȜȜȍȘȍȕȞȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȗȖ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ, ȖȕȈ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȑ. ǭșȓȐ ȚȘȍȉțȍȚșȧ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȧȚȤ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȦ ȗȍȘȍȔȕȖȎȍȕȐȧ ȗȍȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȝ, ȊȖȏȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ Ȋ șȚȍȗȍȕȤ ȐȓȐ ȐȏȊȓȍȟȍȕȐȍ ȒȖȘȕȍȑ Ȑȏ ȗȍȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȝ, ȐȕȚȍȋȘȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ Ȑ ȌȐȜȜȍȘȍȕȞȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȗȖ ȗȍȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȔ, ȖȚȓȐȟȕȣȔ ȖȚ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ, ȚȖ șȐșȚȍȔȈ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȑ.

3 Czerwinski, Thomas. Coping with the Bounds: A Neo-Clausewitzean Primer. Washington, DC: Department of Defense Command and Control Research Program (CCRP) Publication Series, 3rd Edition Revised, 2008. 12 January 2011. <http://www.dodccrp. org/files/Czerwinski_Coping.pdf>, pp. 7-25.

76

ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȧ ȝȖȘȖȠȖ ȘȈȉȖȚȈȍȚ, ȚȖ Ȗ ȕȍȑ ȋȖȊȖȘȧȚ, ȒȈȒ Ȗ «ȝȖȘȖȠȖ șȔȈȏȈȕȕȖȑ ȔȈȠȐȕȍ», ȒȖȋȌȈ șȚȘȍȔȧȚșȧ ȗȖȌȟȍȘȒȕțȚȤ ȔȈȓȖșȚȤ Ȑ ȕȍȏȕȈȟȐȚȍȓȤȕȖșȚȤ ȧȊȓȍȕȐȧ, șȚȘțȒȚțȘȣ, ȘȈȉȖȚȕȐȒȈ ȋȖȊȖȘȧȚ: «ȥȚȖ ȊșȍȋȖ ȓȐȠȤ ȊȐȕȚȐȒ Ȋ ȔȈȠȐȕȍ», Ȑ Ț.Ȍ. Ȑ Ț.ȗ.

ǵȤȦȚȖȕȖȊșȒȈȧ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȈ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȐ ȖȒȈȏȈȓȈșȤ ȚȈȒȖȑ ȧșȕȖȑ Ȑ ȗȘȖșȚȖȑ, ȟȚȖ ȉȣȓȈ ȗȘȖșȚȖ ȕȍȖȚȘȈȏȐȔȈ. ǶȕȈ ȕȈȊȧȏȣȊȈȓȈ ȘȍȋțȓȧȘȕȖșȚȤ Ȑ ȔȈșȠȚȈȉȐȘțȍȔȖșȚȤ ȚȈȔ, ȋȌȍ ȍȍ ȕȍ ȉȣȓȖ. Ǭȓȧ ȖȉȢȧșȕȍȕȐȧ ȧȊȓȍȕȐȑ, ȔȐȘȖȏȌȈȕȐȧ Ȋ ȞȍȓȖȔ, ȖȕȈ țȗȘȖȡȈȓȈ Ȑ ȓȐȕȍȍȘȐȏȐȘȖȊȈȓȈ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȣ, ȐȌȍȈȓȐȏȐȘțȧ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕțȦ Ȑ ȖȉȢȍȒȚȐȊȕțȦ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȖșȚȤ. ǷȖȓțȟȈȦȡȍȍșȧ ȊȐȌȍȕȐȍ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȖșȚȐ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȓȖșȤ ȔȖȡȕȣȔ, ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȟȕȣȔ Ȑ… țȏȒȐȔ. DzȈȒ ȖȚȔȍȟȈȍȚ ȇȕ ǹȚȦȈȘȚ, ȏȈ ȚȈȒȖȑ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚ ȗȘȐȝȖȌȐȚșȧ ȗȓȈȚȐȚȤ șȖȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊțȦȡțȦ Ȟȍȕț, ȏȈȒȓȦȟȈȦȡțȦșȧ Ȋ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȐȐ ȊȐȌȍȕȐȧ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȍȔȣȝ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȖȊ, ȚȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȊȖȖȉȘȈȎȍȕȐȍ Ȑ ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȍ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȓȐșȤ ȜțȕȌȈȔȍȕȚȈȓȤȕȖ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȔȐ. «Ǵȣ ȖȒȈȏȈȓȐșȤ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȗȖȓțȟȐȚȤ ȈȕȈȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ țȘȈȊȕȍȕȐȧ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȊȈȦȚ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȕȐȍ, ȕȖ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȗȘȐ ȕȍȗȘȍȔȍȕȕȖȔ ȚȘȍȉȖȊȈȕȐȐ, ȟȚȖ șȐșȚȍȔȍ ȕȍ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȍȚșȧ șȓȐȠȒȖȔ ȉȣșȚȘȖ ȔȍȕȧȚȤșȧ ȊȖ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ. Ǵȣ ȐșȒțșșȚȊȍȕȕȖ ȚȘȍȉțȍȔ, ȟȚȖȉȣ ȕȈȠȐ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȉȣȓȐ șȚȈȉȐȓȤȕȣȔȐ Ȋ ȔȈȒșȊȍȓȓȖȊșȒȖȔ șȔȣșȓȍ, Ȑ ȏȈȚȍȔ țȌȐȊȓȧȍȔșȧ ȗȘȖȧȊȓȍȕȐȧȔ ȕȍșȚȈȉȐȓȤȕȖșȚȐ, ș ȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ șȚȈȓȒȐȊȈȍȔșȧ Ȋ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȖȔ ȔȐȘȍ»1.

ǶȌȕȈȒȖ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȈȧ ȔȖȡȤ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȐ ȗȘȖȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ Ȋ șȗȖșȖȉȕȖșȚȐ șȖȏȌȈȊȈȚȤ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȐ – ȖȚ ȗȈȘȖȊȖȋȖ ȒȖȓȍșȈ ȌȖ ȒȘȍȔȕȐȍȊȣȝ ȟȐȗȖȊ Ȑ ȉȐȖȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȑ. ǺȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȧ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȈ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȗȘȐ ȕȍȧȊȕȖȔ ȌȖȗțȡȍȕȐȐ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȐ, ȉȍȏ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȚȤ ȗȖȊȚȖȘȧȍȔȖșȚȤ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȖȊ, ȔȈșȠȚȈȉȐȘțȍȔȖșȚȤ, ȗȍȘȍȕȖșȐȔȖșȚȤ – șȊȖȑșȚȊȈ, ȧȊȓȧȦȡȐȍșȧ ȉȈȏȐșȖȔ ȓȦȉȖȑ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȐ. ǺȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȖȍ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȍ, ȚȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, ȐȏȕȈȟȈȓȤȕȖ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȔ ȐȓȐ țȔȍȘȍȕȕȖ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȔ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȖȔ2. ǫȓȈȊȕȈȧ ȕȍȈȌȍȒȊȈȚȕȖșȚȤ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȑ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȣ ȖȒȈȏȈȓȈșȤ șȊȧȏȈȕȈ ș ȕȍșȗȖșȖȉȕȖșȚȤȦ țȟȐȚȣȊȈȚȤ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ, ȚȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȖȕȈ ȒȖȕȞȍȕȚȘȐȘțȍȚșȧ ȕȈ ȘȈșșȔȖȚȘȍȕȐȐ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȖȊ, ȈȋȍȕȚȖȊ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȍȔȣȝ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȖȊ, ȗȘȍȕȍȉȘȍȋȈȧ ȐȓȐ ȈȉșȚȘȈȋȐȘțȧșȤ ȖȚ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ. Ǫ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȕșȚȊȍ șȓțȟȈȍȊ ȐȔȍȕȕȖ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȔȍȎȌț ȈȋȍȕȚȈȔȐ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȧȚ Ȓ ȗȖȧȊȓȍȕȐȦ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȐ Ȑ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖșȚȐ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȒȐ ȕȖȊȖȑ, ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȑ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȣ.

2.2 ǵȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȈȧ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȈ

ǶȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȕȖșȚȤ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȑ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȣ Ȑ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖșȚȤ ȗȖȐșȒȈ ȕȖȊȣȝ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȖȊ ȉȣȓȈ ȖșȖȏȕȈȕȈ ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ ȕȍȌȈȊȕȖ. ǶȉȏȖȘ ȒȕȐȋ ȗȖ ȜȐȏȐȒȍ ȗȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚ, ȟȚȖ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȌȊȍ Ȑȏ ȌȍȊȧȚȕȈȌȞȈȚȐ ȗțȉȓȐȒȈȞȐȑ ȔȍȎȌț 1910-1949 ȋȖȌȈȔȐ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȦȚ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȍ ȒȖȓȍȉȈȕȐȧ, ȗȘȐȟȍȔ ȖȌȕȈ Ȑȏ ȕȐȝ țȚȊȍȘȎȌȈȍȚ, ȟȚȖ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȍ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȐȚ «ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȕȈ șȓțȟȈȑȕȖȑ ȖșȕȖȊȍ», Ȉ ȌȘțȋȈȧ ȖȚȕȖșȐȚ Ȑȝ Ȓ

1 Stewart, Ian. Does God Play Dice? The Mathematics of Chaos. Oxford and New York: Basil Blackwell, 1989, p. 83. 2 Czerwinski, Coping with the Bounds, pp. 25-35.

77

ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȊȈȎȕȖȑ ȚȍȔȍ, ȕȖ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚ, ȟȚȖ «Ȕȣ ȕȍ țȋȓțȉȓȧȍȔșȧ Ȋ ȒȈȒȐȍ-ȓȐȉȖ ȌȍȚȈȓȐ»1. ǵȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȤ ȖȚȕȖșȐȚșȧ Ȓ ȉȖȓȤȠȖȔț ȒȓȈșșț ȚȍȘȔȐȕȖȊ, ȖȉȘȈȏțȦȡȐȝșȧ ȟȍȘȍȏ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȗȖșȚȈȊȓȍȕȐȍ ȐȓȐ ȖȚȘȐȞȈȕȐȍ ȖșȕȖȊȕȖȋȖ ȗȖȕȧȚȐȧ. ǴȖȎȕȖ țȗȖȔȧȕțȚȤ ȈȗȍȘȐȖȌȐȟȕȖșȚȤ, ȈșȐȔȔȍȚȘȐȟȕȖșȚȤ, ȕȍȘȈȊȕȖȊȍșȕȖșȚȤ, ȚȈȒȎȍ ȖȚȕȖșȧȡȐȍșȧ Ȓ ȌȈȕȕȖȔț ȒȓȈșșț. ǷȖȌȖȉȕȣȑ ȗȖȌȝȖȌ Ȓ ȜȖȘȔȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȦ ȚȍȘȔȐȕȖȓȖȋȐȐ ȌȍȔȖȕșȚȘȐȘțȍȚ ȋȓțȉȐȕȕȣȍ ȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȧ ȔȍȎȌț ȗȖȕȧȚȐȧȔȐ «ȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȤ» Ȑ «ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȤ», țȝȖȌȧȡȐȍ ȒȖȘȕȧȔȐ Ȋ ȍȊȘȖȗȍȑșȒțȦ ȜȐȓȖșȖȜȐȦ Ȑ ȒțȓȤȚțȘț, ȐșȚȖȒȐ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȔȖȎȕȖ ȖȉȕȈȘțȎȐȚȤ ȍȡȍ ț ǨȘȐșȚȖȚȍȓȧ Ȑ ȌȘțȋȐȝ ȌȘȍȊȕȍȋȘȍȟȍșȒȐȝ ȜȐȓȖșȖȜȖȊ. ǵȍȧȊȕȖȍ ȌȖȗțȡȍȕȐȍ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ ȊȣșȚțȗȈȍȚ Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ ȕȖȘȔȣ, ȗȘȖȕȐȏȣȊȈȍȚ ȊȍșȤ ȏȈȗȈȌȕȣȑ ȔȐȘ.

ǷȖȌ ȗȖșȚȕȤȦȚȖȕȖȊșȒȖȑ ȐȓȐ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȑ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȖȑ ȗȖȌȘȈȏțȔȍȊȈȍȚșȧ șȐșȚȍȔȈȚȐȏȈȞȐȧ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȕȣȝ, ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȍȕȕȣȝ ȧȊȓȍȕȐȑ Ȑ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȖȊ Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȋȖ ȜȍȕȖȔȍȕȈ. ǵȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȍ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȌȍȔȖȕșȚȘȐȘțȦȚ ȖȚșțȚșȚȊȐȍ ȗȘȖȗȖȘȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖșȚȐ Ȑ ȈȌȌȐȚȐȊȕȖșȚȐ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȔȈȓȣȍ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȕȈ ȊȝȖȌȍ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȔȖȋțȚ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚȤ Ȓ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȔ ȖȚȒȓȐȒȈȔ ȕȈ ȊȣȝȖȌȈȝ, Ȉ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȤ ȈȉșȚȘȈȋȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȖȚ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ ȕȍ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȍȚ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȐȚȤ ȔȍȚȖȌȣ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȋȖ ȘȍȌțȒȞȐȖȕȐȏȔȈ, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȡȐȍ ȖșțȡȍșȚȊȐȚȤ ȌȍȒȖȔȗȖȏȐȞȐȦ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȕȈ ȘȧȌ ȗȖȌșȐșȚȍȔ ȔȍȕȤȠȍȋȖ ȔȈșȠȚȈȉȈ.

ǷȘȐ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȕȐȐ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȕȍȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ ȌțȔȈȚȤ Ȗ ȕȍȑ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ Ȋ ȚȍȘȔȐȕȈȝ ȟȈșȚȍȑ ȐȓȐ ȈșȗȍȒȚȖȊ, ȊȣȟȓȍȕȧȍȔȣȝ ȏȈȘȈȕȍȍ, ȟȍȘȍȏ ȈȕȈȓȐȏ Ȑ ȒȖȔȉȐȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȗȖȓțȟȈȦȚșȧ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘȐșȚȐȒȐ șȐșȚȍȔȣ Ȋ ȞȍȓȖȔ, ȚȖ ȍșȚȤ «ȞȍȓȖȍ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ȉȖȓȤȠȍ, ȕȍȎȍȓȐ șțȔȔȈ șȖșȚȈȊȓȧȦȡȐȝ ȍȋȖ ȟȈșȚȍȑ», ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖ ȕȍȥȒȊȐȊȈȓȍȕȚȕȖ șȊȖȐȔ ȟȈșȚȧȔȐ Ȑ ȌȈȎȍ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖ ȕȍ ȘȈșȗȖȏȕȈȊȈȍȔȖ Ȋ șȖșȚȈȊȓȧȦȡȐȝ ȒȖȔȗȖȕȍȕȚȈȝ. ǸȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣ ȕȍ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ ȗȘȍȌȗȖȓȈȋȈȚȤșȧ Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ ȗȖȊȚȖȘȧȍȔȣȝ, ȚȖ ȍșȚȤ ȗȖȗȣȚȒȐ ȗȖȊȚȖȘȐȚȤ ȖȌȐȕ Ȑ ȚȖȚ Ȏȍ ȥȒșȗȍȘȐȔȍȕȚ ȕȈȚȈȓȒȐȊȈȦȚșȧ ȕȈ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȤ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȚȤ ȍȋȖ ȗȖȊȚȖȘȍȕȐȍ. ǵȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȈȧ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȒȈ, ȗȘȐȊȖȌȧȡȈȧ Ȓ ȗȘȖȐȏȊȖȓȤȕȖȑ ȟțȊșȚȊȐȚȍȓȤȕȖșȚȐ Ȓ ȔȈȓȍȑȠȐȔ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧȔ Ȋ ȕȈȟȈȓȤȕȣȝ țșȓȖȊȐȧȝ, ȌȍȓȈȍȚ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣȔ ȒȈȒȖȍ-ȓȐȉȖ ȗȖȊȚȖȘȍȕȐȍ ȐȓȐ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȕȐȍ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȖȊ ȥȒșȗȍȘȐȔȍȕȚȈ – ȒȘȈȍțȋȖȓȤȕȣȑ ȗȘȐȕȞȐȗ ȒȓȈșșȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȍșȚȍșȚȊȍȕȕȣȝ ȕȈțȒ. ǭșȓȐ Ȋȣ ȏȕȈȍȚȍ ȟȚȖ-ȚȖ Ȗ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȍ, Ȋȣ ȕȍ ȔȖȎȍȚȍ ȏȕȈȚȤ Ȗ ȕȍȑ ȟȍȋȖ-ȚȖ ȉȖȓȤȠȍȋȖ, ȕȍ ȔȖȎȍȚȍ ȐȏȔȍȕȧȚȤ ȔȈșȠȚȈȉ Ȑ ȥȒșȚȘȈȗȖȓȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣ. ǵȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȤ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȕȐȧ ȌȍȓȈȍȚ ȉȍșșȔȣșȓȍȕȕȣȔ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ Ȑ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȍ Ȋ ȗȘȐȊȣȟȕȖȔ șȔȣșȓȍ șȓȖȊȈ. DzȈȒ ȖȚȔȍȟȈȍȚ ǩȍȑȍȘȟȍȕ: «DzȖȕȕȖȚȈȞȐȧ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȐ ȏȈȒȓȦȟȈȍȚ Ȋ șȍȉȍ șȔȍșȤ țȋȘȖȏȣ Ȑ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ. ǵȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȤ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȋȍȕȍȘȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȕȍșȚȈȉȐȓȤȕȖșȚȤ, ȘȈȏȘȣȊȣ, șȐȕȍȘȋȐȏȔȣ Ȑ ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȖșȚȤ. ǵȖ ȖȕȈ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȖȚȌȈȍȚ ȌȖȓȎȕȖȍ ȋȐȉȒȖșȚȐ, ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȖșȚȐ, ȌȐȕȈȔȐȟȍșȒȐȔ

1 Cohen Jack and Stewart Ian. The Collapse of Chaos: Discovering Simplicity in a Complex World. New York: Penguin Books, 1994, p. 23.

78

ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧȔ, ȐȕȕȖȊȈȞȐȐ Ȑ ȖȗȍȘȈȚȐȊȕȖșȚȐ. ǪȖȚ ȗȖȟȍȔț ȐȔȍȍȚșȧ șȍȘȤȍȏȕȣȑ ȔȍȚȈȜȖȘȐȟȍșȒȐȑ ȗȖȚȍȕȞȐȈȓ Ȋ ȖȉȘȈȏȈȝ Ȑ ȐȌȍȧȝ, ȥȔȈȕȐȘțȍȔȣȝ ȕȖȊȣȔȐ ȕȈțȒȈȔȐ»1.

ǶȌȕȐȔ Ȑȏ ȗȍȘȊȣȝ, ȒȚȖ șȚȖȓȒȕțȓșȧ ș ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖșȚȤȦ ȈȕȈȓȐȏȈ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ, ȉȣȓ ȅȌȊȈȘȌ dzȖȘȍȕȞ2, ȏȈȕȐȔȈȊȠȐȑșȧ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȒȖȑ ȒȖȔȗȤȦȚȍȘȕȖȑ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ Ȍȓȧ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȕȐȧ ȗȖȋȖȌȣ ȕȈ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ ȗȘȖșȚȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȝ ȌȐȜȜȍȘȍȕȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȝ țȘȈȊȕȍȕȐȑ. ǷȘȐ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȣȝ ȗȈȘȈȔȍȚȘȈȝ ȔȖȌȍȓȤ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȓȈșȤ ȟțȊșȚȊȐȚȍȓȤȕȖȑ Ȓ ȗȈȘȈȔȍȚȘȈȔ ȕȈ ȊȝȖȌȍ, ȕȍȏȕȈȟȐȚȍȓȤȕȖȍ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȍ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȓȖ Ȓ șȖȊȍȘȠȍȕȕȖ ȘȈȏȕȣȔ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȧȔ șȐșȚȍȔȣ. ȇȊȓȍȕȐȍ ȗȖȓțȟȐȓȖ ȕȈȏȊȈȕȐȍ «ȥȜȜȍȒȚȈ ȉȈȉȖȟȒȐ», ȒȖȋȌȈ ȊȏȔȈȝ ȒȘȣȓȤȍȊ ȉȈȉȖȟȒȐ Ȋ ȖȌȕȖȑ ȚȖȟȒȍ ȏȍȔȕȖȋȖ ȠȈȘȈ ȔȖȎȍȚȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚȤ ȒȠȚȖȘȔțȊȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȗȖȓȖȎȕȖȑ3.

2.3 ȅȚȈȗȣ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȧ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȑ Ȑ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȑ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔ

ǷȖȗȣȚȒȐ ȗȘȖșȓȍȌȐȚȤ ȥȚȈȗȣ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȧ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȑ Ȑ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȑ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȧȚ Ȓ ȕȈȟȈȓț ȥȗȖȝȐ ǷȘȖșȊȍȡȍȕȐȧ. ǰȌȍȧ, ȟȚȖ ȗȖșȓȍȌțȦȡȐȍ ȜȍȕȖȔȍȕȣ ȜȐȏȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȔȐȘȈ ȔȖȋțȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȚȖȟȕȖ Ȑ ȗȖȓȕȖ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȕȣ ȕȈ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȘȈȕȕȐȝ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȑ, ȊȗȍȘȊȣȍ ȉȣȓȈ ȊȣșȒȈȏȈȕȈ ȐȍȏțȐȚșȒȐȔ șȊȧȡȍȕȕȐȒȖȔ ǸȖȌȎȍȘȖȔ ǩȈșȒȖȊȐȟȍȔ (Roger Bascovich) Ȋ 1750 ȋȖȌț4. ǽȖȚȧ ȌȈȓȤȕȍȑȠȍȍ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȍ ȌȈȕȕȖȋȖ ȕȈȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ ȗȘȐȕȧȚȖ șȊȧȏȣȊȈȚȤ ș ȐȔȍȕȍȔ ǰșȈȈȒȈ ǵȤȦȚȖȕȈ, șȈȔ ǵȤȦȚȖȕ ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȕȍ șȔȖȋ ȘȍȠȐȚȤ ȏȈȌȈȟț ȗȖșȚȘȖȍȕȐȧ ȞȍȓȖșȚȕȖȑ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ ȔȐȘȖȏȌȈȕȐȧ. ǸȈȉȖȚȈȧ ȕȈȌ ȗȍȘȊȣȔ ȐȏȌȈȕȐȍȔ «ǴȈȚȍȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȕȈȟȈȓȈ ȕȈȚțȘȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȜȐȓȖșȖȜȐȐ» (Philosophiae Naturalis Principia Mathematica), ȗȖȧȊȐȊȠȐȔșȧ ȕȈ șȊȍȚ Ȋ 1687 ȋȖȌț, ǵȤȦȚȖȕ șȚȖȓȒȕțȓșȧ ș ȚȘțȌȕȖșȚȧȔȐ, ȗȣȚȈȧșȤ ȗȍȘȍȑȚȐ ȖȚ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȣ ȋȘȈȊȐȚȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȋȖ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȌȊțȝ Țȍȓ Ȓ ȏȈȌȈȟȍ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȕȍșȒȖȓȤȒȐȝ Țȍȓ, ȒȖȚȖȘțȦ Ȗȕ ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȕȍ ȘȍȠȐȓ5. Ǫ ȖȟȍȘȍȌȕȖȑ ȘȈȏ Ȗȕ ȊȍȘȕțȓșȧ Ȓ ȌȈȕȕȖȑ ȏȈȌȈȟȍ țȎȍ Ȋ 1694ȋ., ȗȣȚȈȧșȤ ȖȗȐșȈȚȤ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȒț ȌȊȐȎȍȕȐȧ dzțȕȣ ȊȖȒȘțȋ ǯȍȔȓȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ, Ȋ șȊȖȦ ȖȟȍȘȍȌȤ, ȌȊȐȎȍȚșȧ ȊȖȒȘțȋ ǹȖȓȕȞȈ (ȌȐȕȈȔȐȒț ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȚȘȍȝ Țȍȓ)6. Ǭȓȧ ȖȉȢȧșȕȍȕȐȧ șȚȈȉȐȓȤȕȖșȚȐ șȖȓȕȍȟȕȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ǵȤȦȚȖȕ ȉȣȓ ȊȣȕțȎȌȍȕ ȊȊȍșȚȐ Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ «ȗȖȗȘȈȊȖȟȕȖȋȖ ȗȈȘȈȔȍȚȘȈ» ȉȖȎȍșȚȊȍȕȕțȦ ȒȖȘȘȍȒȚȐȘȖȊȒț7. ǸȍȚȘȖșȗȍȒȚȐȊȕȖ ȚȘțȌȕȖșȚȐ ǵȤȦȚȖȕȈ, șȊȧȏȈȕȕȣȍ ș ȕȍȘȍȋțȓȧȘȕȖșȚȤȦ ȌȊȐȎȍȕȐȧ dzțȕȣ, ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȖȉȢȧșȕȐȔȣȔȐ. DzȈȒ ȚȍȗȍȘȤ ȐȏȊȍșȚȕȖ, ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȈ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȚȘȍȝ Țȍȓ ȕȍ ȐȔȍȍȚ ȖȉȡȍȋȖ ȈȕȈȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ8.

1	Beyerchen, Clausewitz, Nonlinearity and the Importance of Imagery, p. 74.
2	Lorenz, Edward N. “Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow,” Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 20, No. 2, 1963,
pp. 130-41. 12 January 2011. <http://tnt.phys.uniroma1.it/twiki/pub/TNTgroup/AngeloVulpiani/lorenz.pdf>
3	Gleick, James. Chaos: Making a New Science. New York: Penguin Books, 1987.

4 ǵȈȐȉȖȓȍȍ ȟȐȚȈȍȔȖȑ Ȑ ȞȐȚȐȘțȍȔȖȑ ȘȈȉȖȚȖȑ ǩȖșȒȖȊȐȟȈ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȍȋȖ “Philosophiae Naturalis Theoria Reducta ad Unicam Legem Virium in Natura Existentium” (ǺȍȖȘȐȧ ȕȈȚțȘȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȜȐȓȖșȖȜȐȐ, șȊȍȌȍȕȕȖȑ Ȓ ȏȈȒȖȕț ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ,

șțȡȍșȚȊțȦȡȐȝ Ȋ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȍ) 1758 ȋȖȌȈ (șȔ. Barrow John D. Theory of Everything: the Quest for Ultimate Explanation. New York: Fawcett Columbine, 1991, p. 54).

5 Westfal Richard S. Newton, never at rest. A biography of Isaac Newton. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1980, p. 430.

6 Ibid, p. 540.

7 Ibid, pp. 777-778.

8 Ibid, pp. 543; Lorenz, Edward N. The Essence of Chaos. Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1993, p. 214.

79

ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ǿȍȓȖȊȍȒȖȔ, ȒȖȚȖȘȖȔț țȌȈȓȖșȤ ȗȘȐȌȈȚȤ ȕȤȦȚȖȕȖȊșȒȖȑ ȒȈȘȚȐȕȍ ȔȐȘȈ ȏȈȒȖȕȟȍȕȕȣȑ ȊȐȌ, șȚȈȓ dzȈȗȓȈș, «țȉȘȈȊȠȐȑ Ȋșȍ ȐȏȊȍșȚȕȣȍ ȖȠȐȉȒȐ Ȑ ȖȉȢȧșȕȐȊ Ȋșȍ ȐȏȊȍșȚȕȣȍ ȈȕȖȔȈȓȐȐ Ȋ ȕȤȦȚȖȕȖȊșȒȖȑ ȒȖșȔȖȓȖȋȐȐ Ȑ ȜȐȏȐȒȍ»1, ȟȚȖ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȐȓȖ ȍȔț șȌȍȓȈȚȤ ȊȣȊȖȌ, ȟȚȖ ȊșȍȓȍȕȕȈȧ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ șȚȘȖȋȖ ȌȍȚȍȘȔȐȕȐșȚșȒȖȑ Ȋ Ȍțȝȍ ǩȖșȒȖȊȐȟȈ. ǪșȍȖȉȢȍȔȓȦȡțȦ ȔȍȝȈȕȐșȚȐȟȍșȒțȦ ȒȈȘȚȐȕț ȔȐȘȈ, ȗȖ dzȈȗȓȈșț, ȔȖȎȕȖ ȕȈȑȚȐ Ȋ ȘȈȉȖȚȍ «ǼȐȓȖșȖȜșȒȖȍ ȥșșȍ ȗȖ ȊȍȘȖȧȚȕȖșȚȐ» (Essai philosophique sur les probabilitiés)2 1814 ȋȖȌȈ, ȧȊȓȧȦȡțȦșȧ ȊȊȍȌȍȕȐȍȔ Ȓ ȘȈȉȖȚȍ «ǨȕȈȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȈȧ ȚȍȖȘȐȧ ȊȍȘȖȧȚȕȖșȚȐ» (Théorie analytique des probabilitiés). dzȈȗȓȈș ȗȐșȈȓ: «ǸȈȏțȔ,

ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ șȔȖȎȍȚ Ȋ ȖȌȕȖ ȔȋȕȖȊȍȕȤȍ ȗȖșȚȐȟȤ Ȋșȍ șȐȓȣ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȔȐ ȖȎȐȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȈ Ȑ șȖȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊȍȕȕțȦ șȐȚțȈȞȐȦ șțȡȕȖșȚȍȑ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ șȖȏȌȈȦȚ ȍȍ, – ȘȈȏțȔ, ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ ȉȍȏȋȘȈȕȐȟȕȣȑ, ȟȚȖȉȣ ȉȣȚȤ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȘȈșșȔȖȚȘȍȚȤ ȥȚȐ ȌȈȕȕȣȍ Ȍȓȧ ȈȕȈȓȐȏȈ, ȖȝȊȈȚȐȚȤ ȖȌȕȖȑ Ȑ ȚȖȑ Ȏȍ ȜȖȘȔțȓȖȑ ȒȈȒ ȌȊȐȎȍȕȐȧ ȊȍȓȐȟȈȑȠȐȝ Țȍȓ ǪșȍȓȍȕȕȖȑ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȔȍȓȤȟȈȑȠȍȋȖ ȈȚȖȔȈ; Ȍȓȧ ȕȍȋȖ ȕȍ ȖșȚȈȕȍȚșȧ ȕȐȟȍȋȖ ȕȍȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȖȋȖ Ȑ ȉțȌțȡȍȍ, ȒȈȒ Ȑ ȗȘȖȠȓȖȍ, ȉțȌȍȚ ȖȚȒȘȣȚȖ Ȍȓȧ ȍȋȖ ȋȓȈȏ»3.

Ǫ ȓȈȗȓȈșȖȊșȒȖȔ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȐ ǪșȍȓȍȕȕȈȧ, ȊȗȓȖȚȤ ȌȖ ȔȍȓȤȟȈȑȠȐȝ ȌȍȚȈȓȍȑ Ȑ ȟȈșȚȍȑ, șȚȘȖȋȖ ȖȗȐșȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȣȔȐ, ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȣȔȐ ȔȈȚȍȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȔȐ ȏȈȒȖȕȈȔȐ – ȗȖȌȝȖȌ, ȧȘȒȖ ȌȍȔȖȕșȚȘȐȘțȍȔȣȑ ȚȈȒ ȕȈȏȣȊȈȍȔȣȔ «ȌȍȔȖȕȖȔ dzȈȗȓȈșȈ». ǭșȓȐ ȗȘȍȌȗȖȓȖȎȐȚȤ șțȡȍșȚȊȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȌȍȔȖȕȈ, ȖȉȓȈȌȈȦȡȍȋȖ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖȑ ȔȖȡȤȦ ȘȈȏțȔȈ, ȟȚȖȉȣ șȝȊȈȚȐȚȤ Ȋ ȖȌȐȕ ȔȖȔȍȕȚ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ Ȋșȍ ȧȊȓȍȕȐȧ ǪșȍȓȍȕȕȖȑ, ȚȖ Ȍȓȧ ȚȈȒȖȋȖ șțȡȍșȚȊȈ ȕȍ ȖșȚȈȕȍȚșȧ ȕȐȟȍȋȖ ȕȍȧșȕȖȋȖ Ȑ ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȖȋȖ ȒȈȒ Ȋ ȗȘȖȠȓȖȔ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ Ȋ ȉțȌțȡȍȔ. ǴȈȚȍȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȏȈȒȖȕȣ, ȓȍȎȈȡȐȍ Ȋ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȔȐȘȖȏȌȈȕȐȧ, ȕȍ ȖșȚȈȊȓȧȦȚ ȒȈȒȖȋȖ-ȓȐȉȖ ȔȍșȚȈ Ȍȓȧ șȓțȟȈȧ ȐȓȐ ȕȍȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȖșȚȐ4. ǹȚȘȖȋȖ ȌȍȚȍȘȔȐȕȐșȚșȒȖȍ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ ȔȐȘȈ ȊȖșȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȓȖșȤ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȕșȚȊȖȔ țȟȍȕȣȝ ȚȖȋȖ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ ȉȍȏțșȓȖȊȕȖȑ ȐșȚȐȕȣ. «dzȈȗȓȈșȖȊșȒȐȑ ȌȍȚȍȘȔȐȕȐȏȔ», țȚȊȍȘȎȌȈȦȡȐȑ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȤ ȌȖȓȋȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȖȋȖ Ȑ șȚȘȖȋȖȋȖ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȕȐȧ Ȋșȍȝ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȍȔȣȝ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȖȊ, șȟȐȚȈȓșȧ ȕȍȖșȗȖȘȐȔȣȔ ȕȈțȟȕȣȔ ȜȈȒȚȖȔ.

ǶȌȕȈȒȖ țȎȍ ǴȈȒșȊȍȓȓ Ȋ ȒȖȕȞȍ 19 ȊȍȒȍ ȗȖȒȈȏȈȓ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȕȖșȚȤ ȚȈȒȖȋȖ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȈ: «DzȖȋȌȈ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȍ Ȋȍȡȍȑ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȚȈȒȖȊȣȔ, ȟȚȖ ȉȍșȒȖȕȍȟȕȖ ȔȈȓȖȍ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȍ ȕȈșȚȖȧȡȍȋȖ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȧ ȉțȌȍȚ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȉȍșȒȖȕȍȟȕȖ ȔȈȓȣȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ ȐȏȔȍȕȧȚȤ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȍ Ȋ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȖȍ ȉțȌțȡȍȍ ȊȘȍȔȧ, șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȍ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȒȈȒ Ȋ ȗȖȒȖȍ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ Ȋ ȌȊȐȎȍȕȐȐ, șȟȐȚȈȍȚșȧ șȚȈȉȐȓȤȕȣȔ; ȕȖ ȍșȓȐ ȉȍșȒȖȕȍȟȕȖ ȔȈȓȖȍ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȍ Ȋ ȕȈș-

1 Harre, Rom. “Laplace, Pierre Simon de,” in Edwards Paul (ed.) The Encyclopedia of Philosophy, New York: Macmillan and the Free Press, 1967, Vol. 4, p. 392.

2 Newman, James R. “Commentary on Pierre Simon de Laplace,” The World of Mathematics: A Small Library of the Literature of Mathematics from A'h-mose the Scribe to Albert Einstein, Redmond, WA: Tempus, 1988 (ed.) of 1956 original, Vol. 2, p. 1296.

3 Laplace, Pierre Simon de. “Concerning Probability,”' in Newman, James R. (ed.), The World of Mathematics, New York: Simon and Schuster, 1956, Vol. 2, pp. 1325-1333.

4 Porter, Theodore M., The Rise of Statistical Thinking: 1820-1900. Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1986, p. 72.

80