- •Card 1 Building euro-zone competitiveness Mobile moans
- •It should be easier for unemployed Europeans to move in search of work. The latest in an occasional series
- •Polymetal обязалась выплачивать бывшим владельцам месторождения Кубака 2% ее выручки
- •Free exchange
- •Petrodollar profusion
- •Oil exporters are the main drivers of global imbalances
- •Девелоперы страхуются от кризиса длинными кредитами и банковскими альянсами
- •Card 3 Free exchange Petrodollar profusion
- •Девелоперы страхуются от кризиса длинными кредитами и банковскими альянсами
- •American-Afghan relations
- •Over to you
- •Growing Afghan responsibility for the war serves a wider purpose
- •Испания лишилась еще одного многомиллиардного актива в Южной Америке
- •Card 5 Chen Guangcheng The great escape
- •Британские власти грозят высокими штрафами за незаконную рекламу во время Олимпиады
- •Card 6 Pensions
- •If it's so easy to fix it, fix it
- •Антимонопольные регуляторы Аргентины и Южной Кореи заинтересовались деятельностью Google
- •Card 7 The euro-zone crisis Call it a depression
- •Сша потеряют от 60 млрд до 200 млрд долларов на спасении финансовой системы
- •Card 8 Deleveraging The bad, the good and the ugly
- •UniCredit, Mediobanca и Generali стали первыми жертвами управленческой реформы в Италии
- •Card 9 Medvedev: The man who kept the seat of power warm for Putin
- •Голливуд попался на взятках
- •Card 10 'Government should leave pensions alone'
- •Еврокомиссия заподозрила испанские футбольные клубы в получении незаконных дотаций
- •Card 11 Heeeere's Tony! Blair's plan to 're-engage' with British politics
- •Nestle заплатит 12 млрд долларов за расширение своих позиций в Азии
- •Card 12
- •Israeli social justice campaigners cancel weekend protests after attacks in south
- •Russian Emigres Hungry for News
- •Иностранные инвестбанки могут отказаться от сопровождения ipo в Гонконге
- •Card 13
- •Terrorist Acts
- •Synagogue shooting unnerves Los Angeles
- •Drug Agent's Murder Called 'Terrorist Act'
- •Muslim convert pleads not guilty in killing of soldier
- •Барак Обама объявил войну спекулянтам на рынке топлива
- •Card 14
- •Card 15 Officials Hope Arrest of Carlos Sends Message : Mideast: Capture may have little effect on terrorist acts. But it could pressure nations harboring extremists.
- •Terror data convictions overturned
- •My brother, the 'terrorist'
- •Influential Mideast bank accused of funding militants
- •False Terrorist Accusations Alleged
- •Google разделяет акции, чтобы основатели могли властвовать
- •Card 16 Bush has it all wrong on terrorism
- •U.N. May Address Terrorist Incitement
- •Britain Arrests 13 Suspected of Plotting Terrorist Acts
- •The Nation
- •Hey, Big Spenders
- •Apple с 2009 года буквально стала локомотивом роста американского рынка
- •Card 17 Bank Of England Admits Failure To Warn Of Financial Crisis Risks
- •Миллионер Митт Ромни станет соперником Барака Обамы на президентских выборах
- •Card 18 Spain’s Pain: Will The Spanish Banking System Collapse?
- •3 May 2012
- •Американский миллиардер хочет отсудить у ubs 1,7 млрд долларов
- •Card 19
- •Нефтяным компаниям из Италии и Франции грозят проблемы из-за сотрудничества с режимом Каддафи
- •Card 20 Behind The Fracking Divide In The uk
- •Сша захлестнет вторая волна ипотечного кризиса
- •Card 21 America Needs To Rethink Its Priorities With China: Stephen Roach
- •Burger King станет публичной компанией в течение трех месяцев
- •Card 22 Why Germany Has No Choice But To Save Europe: Mohamed El-Erian
- •Инвесторы поверили в хорошие перспективы американской экономики
- •Card 23 How the Luxury Market Defied the European Crisis
- •26 April 2012
- •Японской Tepco требуется 12 млрд долларов, чтобы избежать банкротства
- •Card 24
- •В Великобритании зафиксировано рекордное падение доходов населения
- •Card 25 The ypf Takeover Will Not Solve Argentina’s Energy Problems: Alieto Guadagni
- •27 April 2012
- •Саудовская Аравия пытается сбить цены на нефть в угоду Бараку Обаме
Card 3 Free exchange Petrodollar profusion
Recycling initiative
Whatever recycling of petrodollars occurs is unevenly distributed. Oil exporters buy a lot more of their imports from Europe and Asia than from America, so a shift in the “terms of trade”, which redistributes income from oil consumers to oil producers, tends to reduce the relative demand for American goods. According to research by the International Energy Agency, for each dollar America spent on oil imports from OPEC countries last year, only 34 cents came back in exports, whereas the European Union got back more than 80 cents. For each dollar China handed to OPEC, 64 cents flowed back in increased exports.
Oil producers understandably do not want to repeat the mistakes of previous times, when spending surged as oil prices rose—only to leave behind large deficits when prices later fell. Saudi Arabia, for instance, shifted from a current-account surplus of 26% of GDP in 1980 to a deficit of 13% in 1983. Exporters should certainly run a surplus as a buffer for when oil prices drop or wells run dry. The surpluses of 5-7% of GDP run by Russia, Nigeria and Venezuela seem sensible, but some countries’ prudence looks excessive. Saudi Arabia’s current-account surplus could hit 28% of GDP this year, and Kuwait’s 46% (see right-hand chart). Kuwait’s cumulative surpluses over the past decade, even ignoring capital gains, amount to a whopping 200% of last year’s GDP.
Normally, a large current-account surplus would be eroded over time by stronger domestic spending and a higher exchange rate. But the Gulf currencies are pegged, or closely linked, to the dollar. Over the past ten years their real trade-weighted exchange rates have stayed flat or fallen, despite the massive gain in their terms of trade. A floating exchange rate could lead to excessive volatility and discourage diversification of these economies (by making other sectors uncompetitive as the currency appreciates), but a bit more flexibility might assist global rebalancing.
Some economists have suggested that oil exporters’ currencies should be pegged to a basket which includes the oil price as well as other currencies. A more flexible exchange rate which rose (and fell) with the oil price would boost (or reduce) consumers’ purchasing power, and hence imports, and also smooth out the local-currency value of government oil revenues. But that would not be a silver bullet. A 2009 IMF working paper* concluded that exchange-rate appreciation is unlikely to have much impact on oil exporters’ external balances. The authors estimated that it would take a 100% appreciation to reduce a surplus by just 2.5% of GDP, both because a revaluation has no effect on oil revenues, which are priced in dollars, and because there is little scope for imports to substitute for domestic production since the manufacturing sectors of these economies are generally tiny. A huge appreciation would also drive down the local-currency value of the large net external assets of some of these countries.