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Earnings revisions
Figures 4 and 5 summarise the changes to our earnings forecasts, as we incorporate financial and production results and updated guidance recently announced.
Figure 4: Earnings for December year-ends
Dec-YE |
2018E |
2019E |
2020E |
2021E |
2022E |
Acron – basic EPS forecasts, RUB |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
350 |
571 |
666 |
617 |
544 |
Old |
348 |
571 |
666 |
617 |
544 |
% change |
1% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
394 |
484 |
534 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
-11% |
18% |
25% |
|
|
Alrosa – adjusted EPS forecasts, RUB |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
14.07 |
13.13 |
14.48 |
14.09 |
13.95 |
Old |
14.12 |
15.08 |
15.88 |
14.49 |
14.42 |
% change |
0% |
-13% |
-9% |
-3% |
-3% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
14.22 |
15.41 |
16.24 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
-1% |
-15% |
-11% |
|
|
Anglo American Platinum – HEPS forecasts, ZAc |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
3,089 |
3,926 |
4,400 |
4,413 |
4,440 |
Old |
3,018 |
4,037 |
4,412 |
4,424 |
4,452 |
% change |
2% |
-3% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
2,648 |
3,202 |
3,587 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
17% |
23% |
23% |
|
|
Glencore – underlying EPS forecasts, USc |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
45 |
33 |
49 |
46 |
49 |
Old |
48 |
39 |
42 |
46 |
47 |
% change |
-6% |
-15% |
17% |
0% |
4% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
42 |
39 |
49 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
8% |
-15% |
0% |
|
|
NorNickel – underlying EPS forecasts, USc |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
215 |
209 |
222 |
206 |
203 |
Old |
212 |
209 |
222 |
205 |
203 |
% change |
1% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
239 |
255 |
270 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
-10% |
-18% |
-18% |
|
|
Polymetal – underlying EPS forecasts, USc |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
98 |
147 |
149 |
139 |
153 |
Old |
94 |
147 |
149 |
139 |
153 |
% change |
4% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
88 |
108 |
121 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
11% |
36% |
23% |
|
|
Polyus – underlying EPS forecasts, USc |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
994 |
1,206 |
1,176 |
1,159 |
1,186 |
Old |
981 |
1,205 |
1,176 |
1,158 |
1,185 |
% change |
1% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
964 |
1,040 |
1,120 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
3% |
16% |
5% |
|
|
Note: Priced at market close on 1 February 2019.
Source: Thomson Reuters, Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates
Figure 5: Earnings for June year-ends
Jun-YE |
2019E |
2020E |
2021E |
2022E |
2023E |
BHP – underlying EPS forecasts, USc |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
177 |
179 |
154 |
167 |
177 |
Old |
183 |
179 |
154 |
167 |
177 |
% change |
-3% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
183 |
183 |
173 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
-3% |
-2% |
-11% |
|
|
Fortescue – underlying EPS forecasts, USc |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
48 |
54 |
35 |
33 |
32 |
Old |
44 |
54 |
34 |
32 |
31 |
% change |
8% |
1% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
42 |
39 |
33 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
14% |
38% |
6% |
|
|
South32 – underlying EPS forecasts, USc |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
22.3 |
19.9 |
19.9 |
20.0 |
20.5 |
Old |
23.8 |
19.7 |
19.9 |
20.0 |
20.5 |
% change |
-6% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
24.2 |
24.3 |
23.1 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
-8% |
-18% |
-14% |
|
|
Note: Priced at market close on 1 February 2019.
Source: Thomson Reuters, Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates
Renaissance Capital
6 February 2019
Metals & Mining
7