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Reporting trends 2H18E vs 1H18

Renaissance Capital

6 February 2019

Metals & Mining

Figure 9: 2H18E vs 1H18, $mn

	Underlying earnings, $mn			Dividends, $mn			Cu. eq production, kt					Capex, $mn		Net debt, $mn
	2H18E	1H18	% ch	2H18E	1H18	% ch	2H18E	1H18	% ch		2H18E	1H18	% ch	2H18E	1H18	% ch
Diversified miners
African Rainbow Minerals	193	232	-17%	94	116	-19%	142	149	-4%		117	122	-4%	-121	-81	-49%
Alrosa	657	969	-32%	1,247	639	95%	676	518	30%		299	184	63%	727	101	618%
Anglo American	1,754	1,565	12%	702	622	13%	1,391	1,358	2%		1,048	1,220	-14%	3,090	3,987	-23%
Assore	197	218	-10%	138	136	1%	112	117	-5%		10	16	-40%	-705	-639	-10%
BHP	3,926	4,964	-21%	8,113	3,354	142%	2,940	3,275	-10%		3,972	2,396	66%	10,316	10,934	-6%
Exxaro	318	249	28%	106	108	-2%	249	238	4%		333	204	63%	288	369	-22%
Fortescue	544	198	175%	308	288	7%	814	838	-3%		270	477	-43%	2,921	3,112	-6%
Glencore	3,024	3,293	-8%	4,148	0	-	2,628	2,402	9%		5,624	2,165	160%	36,203	31,894	14%
Kumba Iron Ore	472	242	95%	520	380	37%	182	174	4%		167	116	44%	-954	-948	-1%
Norilsk Nickel	1,728	1,675	3%	1,857	1,562	19%	767	740	4%		1,114	536	108%	7,466	5,830	28%
Rio Tinto	4,263	4,416	-3%	2,502	2,211	13%	3,090	2,966	4%		3,566	2,584	38%	1,151	5,229	-78%
Rusal	965	952	1%	396	0	-	741	679	9%		353	417	-15%	7,093	7,875	-10%
South32	611	783	-22%	485	317	53%	598	626	-4%		1,741	231	654%	-1,101	-2,041	46%
Vale	4,264	3,881	10%	0	2,054	-100%	2,824	2,472	14%		1,886	499	278%	8,778	11,537	-24%
Total – diversifieds	22,915	23,638	-3%	20,617	11,789	75%	17,153	16,552	4%		20,501	11,167	84%	75,152	77,159	-3%
Platinum miners
Anglo American Platinum	342	273	25%	103	82	26%	303	243	25%		254	225	13%	-57	-39	-48%
Impala	75	-88	186%	0	0	-	201	164	22%		165	241	-31%	246	540	-54%
Northam	-1	-34	97%	0	0	-	75	51	47%		65	100	-35%	884	997	-11%
Royal Bafokeng Platinum	4	-1	506%	0	0	-	26	25	3%		126	112	12%	71	59	20%
Total – platinum	420	151	179%	103	82	26%	605	484	25%		610	677	-10%	1,144	1,558	-27%
Gold miners
AngloGold Ashanti	140	85	65%	31	0	-	351	323	8%		436	335	30%	1,759	1,783	-1%
Gold Fields	73	43	69%	22	13	67%	190	197	-4%		402	397	1%	1,523	1,393	9%
Harmony	91	-18	591%	12	0	-	143	122	17%		180	163	10%	317	399	-21%
Polymetal	289	155	86%	150	77	95%	191	128	50%		180	185	-3%	1,418	1,652	-14%
Polyus	634	680	-7%	262	301	-13%	262	220	19%		414	401	3%	3,275	3,208	2%
Sibanye	41	-42	198%	0	0	-	278	276	1%		280	248	13%	1,424	1,937	-26%
Total – gold	1,268	902	40%	478	391	22%	1,415	1,266	12%		1,892	1,729	9%	9,716	10,372	-6%
Total precious metals	1,688	1,053	60%	580	473	23%	2,020	1,750	15%		2,502	2,407	4%	10,860	11,930	-9%
Steel companies
ArcelorMittal	-45	2	-2934%	0	0	-	170	178	-5%		30	45	-33%	161	342	-53%
Evraz	881	917	-4%	705	733	-4%	766	753	2%		332	323	3%	3,645	3,872	-6%
MMK	650	709	-8%	665	547	22%	525	525	0%		404	424	-5%	-302	-229	-32%
NLMK	1,148	1,150	0%	1,133	1,097	3%	809	799	1%		370	314	18%	1,015	1,032	-2%
Total – steel	2,635	2,777	-5%	2,504	2,377	5%	2,269	2,254	1%		1,136	1,107	3%	4,519	5,017	-10%
Fertiliser companies
Acron	208	101	106%	24	195	-88%	145	145	0%		126	104	21%	1,129	1,196	-6%
PhosAgro	363	302	20%	76	28	171%	253	268	-6%		280	279	0%	1,817	2,068	-12%
Total – fertilisers	571	403	42%	100	223	-55%	397	413	-4%		406	383	6%	2,946	3,264	-10%
Total metals & mining	27,809	27,871	0%	23,801	14,861	73%	21,840	20,969	4%		24,544	15,064	63%	93,476	97,370	-4%

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

	Figure 10: 2H CY18 forecasts vs 1H CY18 and the previous year
	80%				% change 1H18 over 2H17			% change 2H18E over 1H18
							60%		63%
	60%
	40%
			8%
	20%	4%
	0%
		-4%	0%			-6%					-4%
	-20%
									-19%	-13%
	-40%
	-60%
	-80%
	-100%
		Cu eq production	Underlying earnings			Dividends			Capex	Net debt

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

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