vk.com/id446425943

Peer comp charts

Renaissance Capital

6 February 2019

Metals & Mining

Figure 74: Companies ranked by CY19E EBITDA margins compared with their historical averages

80%		67%
70%
		54%	54%	52%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%		Polyus Gold Fields	BHP	Norilsk

*Proportionately consolidated.

**Excluding marketing business.

51%	50%	49%	49%	47%	45%	44%	38%	38%		CY19E EBITDA margins								LT average
									36%		36%	35%	35%	35%	32%	32%		30%	29%	29%	29%	29%	27%	27%	25%	24%	23%	20%	19%	18%	17%	14%	8%	3%
																												Sector average, 34%
Polymetal	Fortescue	Alrosa	Kumba	Vale	AngloGold	Rio Tinto	Russian*	Assore*		Exxaro*	ARM*	Harmony	PhosAgro	Anglo	Others*	Severstal		Sasol	Glencore**	South32	Evraz	RBPlats	Sibanye	NLMK	Northam	Amplats	Mondi	Merafe	MMK	Impala	Rusal	Sappi	Hulamin	AMSA

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

Figure 75: Companies ranked by CY19E FCF yield compared with

	30%	24.0%	23.4%	20.5%	16.4%	15.0%	14.4%	13.5%	13.4%	13.2%	12.8%	12.5%	12.4%	12.4%	12.4%
	25%
	20%
	15%
	10%
	5%
	0%
	-5%
	-10%
	-15%

-20%

Hulamin

ARM

Merafe

Rusal

Harmony

Exxaro

Fortescue

AngloGold

Alrosa

Kumba

Anglo

NLMK

Assore

Evraz

Note: Priced at market close on 1 February 2019.

their historical averages
		CY19E FCF yield										LT average
12.4%			11.0%	10.4%	10.3%	10.2%		9.8%	9.4%			9.4%	9.3%	9.2%	9.1%	8.4%	7.6%	7.2%		5.9%	5.9%		5.4%	5.3%	5.1%	4.8%	3.5%
																								Sector average, 9.4%
																											-6.0%	-10.0%	-10.5%
	Gold Fields		BHP	Polyus	Russian*	PhosAgro		South32	Rio Tinto			Impala	Polymetal	Sibanye	Others*	Vale	Glencore	MMK		Severstal	Mondi		Norilsk	Amplats	Northam	Sasol	Sappi Lonmin	RBPlats	AMSA

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

Figure 76: Miners ranked by CY19E dividend yield compared with their historical averages

16%	14.9%		14.2%	12.6%	12.3%	11.7%	11.3%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%		Merafe	Evraz	Alrosa	NLMK	Severstal	Kumba

Note: Priced at market close on 1 February 2019.

10.4%	10.3%	9.5%	9.4%	9.0%	8.9%	8.4%				CY19E Dividend yield							LT average
							8.2%
										7.5%	6.8%	6.6%	6.3%	6.2%	6.1%		5.9%	5.2%	5.1%	5.0%	4.6%	4.0%	4.0%	3.8%	3.1%	1.9%	1.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%		0.0%	0.0%
																												Sector average, 6%
Exxaro	Norilsk	ARM	Russian*	Fortescue	Hulamin	PhosAgro	Assore			BHP	MMK	Polymetal					Polyus		Rusal	Others*	Sasol	Sappi	Mondi		Gold…	Amplats	AngloGold	Vale	Impala	Northam
													South32	Glencore	Rio Tinto			Anglo						Harmony							RBPlats		Sibanye	AMSA

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

43