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Commodity price and exchange rate forecasts
Figure 73 sets out our average commodity price and exchange rate forecasts per calendar year.
Renaissance Capital
6 February 2019
Metals & Mining
Figure 73: Average commodity prices and exchange rates*
Average per calendar year |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019E |
2020E |
2021E |
2022E |
2023E |
LT real |
Precious commodities |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gold, $/oz |
1,248 |
1,258 |
1,269 |
1,350 |
1,338 |
1,311 |
1,337 |
1,364 |
1,250 |
Silver, $/oz |
17 |
17 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
20 |
18 |
Platinum, $/oz |
988 |
950 |
880 |
870 |
1,070 |
1,153 |
1,177 |
1,200 |
1,100 |
Palladium, $/oz |
614 |
871 |
1,030 |
1,216 |
1,088 |
1,049 |
1,070 |
1,091 |
1,000 |
Rhodium, $/oz |
694 |
1,108 |
2,218 |
2,379 |
2,163 |
2,097 |
2,139 |
2,182 |
2,000 |
3PGM basket (57% Pt, 36% Pd, 7% Rh), $/oz |
833 |
933 |
1,028 |
1,100 |
1,153 |
1,182 |
1,206 |
1,230 |
1,127 |
Rough diamond index, $/ct |
197 |
198 |
202 |
202 |
208 |
215 |
219 |
224 |
205 |
Base metals |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aluminium, $/t |
1,604 |
1,968 |
2,110 |
1,953 |
2,166 |
2,254 |
2,300 |
2,346 |
2,150 |
Bauxite, $/t |
40 |
43 |
42 |
41 |
49 |
51 |
52 |
53 |
48 |
Copper, $/t |
4,867 |
6,170 |
6,532 |
6,000 |
6,367 |
6,606 |
6,739 |
6,875 |
6,300 |
Copper, USc/lb |
221 |
280 |
296 |
272 |
289 |
300 |
306 |
312 |
286 |
Nickel, $/t |
9,599 |
10,404 |
13,130 |
11,530 |
14,285 |
14,680 |
14,975 |
15,277 |
14,000 |
Nickel, USc/lb |
435 |
472 |
596 |
523 |
648 |
666 |
679 |
693 |
635 |
Zinc, $/t |
2,091 |
2,891 |
2,923 |
2,543 |
2,732 |
2,831 |
2,888 |
2,946 |
2,700 |
Zinc, USc/lb |
95 |
131 |
133 |
115 |
124 |
128 |
131 |
134 |
122 |
Lead, $/t |
1,867 |
2,314 |
2,241 |
2,033 |
2,459 |
2,548 |
2,599 |
2,652 |
2,430 |
Cobalt (99.8%), $/lb |
12 |
25 |
33 |
25 |
26 |
26 |
27 |
27 |
25 |
Steelmaking materials |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Iron ore fines (62% Fe, CIF China), $/t |
58 |
71 |
66 |
75 |
67 |
65 |
66 |
68 |
62 |
Iron ore fines (58% Fe, CIF China), $/t |
48 |
52 |
45 |
54 |
52 |
51 |
52 |
53 |
48 |
Iron ore lump premium (62% Fe), $/t |
10 |
15 |
20 |
17 |
13 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
13 |
Freight charges, $/t |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- Australia to China |
4.5 |
6.7 |
7.6 |
8.1 |
7.6 |
7.4 |
7.5 |
7.7 |
7.0 |
- Brazil to China |
9.1 |
14.8 |
18.4 |
19.5 |
18.5 |
17.8 |
18.2 |
18.5 |
17.0 |
- South Africa to China |
6.8 |
11.2 |
13.8 |
14.4 |
13.7 |
13.2 |
13.5 |
13.7 |
12.6 |
Hard coking coal - spot, $/t |
144 |
188 |
206 |
178 |
160 |
157 |
160 |
164 |
150 |
Manganese ore (44%, CIF China), $/mtu |
4.30 |
6.00 |
7.11 |
5.48 |
5.33 |
5.45 |
5.56 |
5.67 |
5.20 |
Ferrochrome (EU), $/lb |
1.0 |
1.5 |
1.4 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
Steel |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
China HRC, $/t |
377 |
508 |
564 |
471 |
471 |
484 |
494 |
504 |
461 |
China export Rebar, $/t |
348 |
517 |
580 |
445 |
449 |
460 |
469 |
478 |
438 |
Energy |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Brent crude oil, $/bl |
45 |
55 |
72 |
65 |
60 |
63 |
64 |
65 |
60 |
WTI oil, $/bl |
43 |
51 |
65 |
62 |
57 |
60 |
61 |
62 |
57 |
Henry Hub (US) gas, $/MMBtu |
2.5 |
3.0 |
3.2 |
3.4 |
3.5 |
4.2 |
4.3 |
4.4 |
4 |
Thermal coal (FOB Richard's Bay), $/t |
64 |
85 |
98 |
93 |
86 |
84 |
86 |
87 |
80 |
Uranium, $/lb |
26 |
22 |
25 |
33 |
43 |
47 |
48 |
49 |
45 |
Chemicals |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ethane (US), $/t |
146 |
184 |
244 |
260 |
374 |
419 |
428 |
436 |
400 |
Ethylene (US), $/t |
585 |
613 |
402 |
548 |
831 |
944 |
963 |
982 |
900 |
Paper & packaging |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Testliner, EUR/t |
432 |
476 |
534 |
532 |
507 |
494 |
499 |
504 |
482 |
Uncoated fine paper, EUR/t |
824 |
815 |
869 |
898 |
873 |
860 |
869 |
878 |
840 |
Fertilisers |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MOP Potash Soluble FOB Saskatchewan, $/t |
228 |
230 |
261 |
289 |
283 |
283 |
289 |
295 |
270 |
Baltic sea Urea granular, $/t |
202 |
220 |
251 |
263 |
269 |
273 |
278 |
284 |
260 |
Baltic DAP, $/t |
357 |
358 |
421 |
434 |
429 |
430 |
439 |
447 |
410 |
Black sea 16-16-16, $/t |
324 |
321 |
318 |
340 |
347 |
353 |
360 |
367 |
337 |
Currency exchange rates |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ZAR/$ |
14.70 |
13.31 |
13.24 |
14.31 |
14.14 |
14.17 |
14.45 |
14.74 |
13.00 |
$/AUD |
0.74 |
0.77 |
0.75 |
0.72 |
0.78 |
0.80 |
0.80 |
0.80 |
0.80 |
$/EUR |
1.11 |
1.13 |
1.18 |
1.17 |
1.21 |
1.22 |
1.22 |
1.22 |
1.20 |
CLP/$ |
676 |
649 |
642 |
689 |
674 |
673 |
687 |
701 |
630 |
BRL/$ |
3.49 |
3.19 |
3.65 |
3.78 |
3.50 |
3.42 |
3.49 |
3.56 |
3.20 |
COP/$ |
3,053 |
2,952 |
2,956 |
3,193 |
3,031 |
3,015 |
3,138 |
3,265 |
2,800 |
RUB/$ |
67 |
58 |
63 |
67 |
68 |
67 |
66 |
66 |
58 |
Inflation |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
US consumer price index |
240 |
245 |
251 |
256 |
261 |
266 |
272 |
277 |
|
US inflation |
1.3% |
2.1% |
2.5% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
|
•The above amounts represent the average per calendar year.
Source: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Renaissance Capital estimates
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