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Results previews

African Rainbow Minerals (ARM) – 1H19 results preview

Figure 11: ARM – forecasts vs previously reported numbers, ZARmn (unless otherwise stated)

	Jun-YE	1H19E	2H18	% change	1H18	% change
		forecasts	reported	HoH	reported	YoY
	Per share information, ZAc
	HEPS	1,434	1,503	-5%	1,023	40%
	Interim DPS declared	700	750	-7%	250	180%
	Dividend pay-out ratio	49%	51%		27%
	Annualised dividend yield	10%	9%		8%
	Income statement
	Revenue	13,695	12,373	11%	12,444	10%
	Underlying EBITDA	5,272	4,210	25%	4,192	26%
	EBITDA margin	38%	34%		34%
	Headline earnings	2,741	2,860	-4%	1,954	40%
	RoE	21%	20%		15%
	EBIT by division
	Platinum	730	475	54%	569	28%
	Ferrous	2,793	2,476	13%	2,175	28%
	Coal	305	250	22%	158	93%
	Corporate	-146	-394	63%	-49	-200%
	Total	3,681	2,807	31%	2,853	29%
	IFRS adjustments	-2,793	-2,464	-13%	-2,175	-28%
	Consolidated EBIT	888	343	159%	678	31%
	Share of income from equity-accounted entities	2,279	2,253	1%	1,876	21%
	Note: Priced at close 1 February 2019

Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Renaissance Capital estimates

Figure 12: ARM – forecasts vs previously reported numbers, ZARmn (unless otherwise stated)

	Jun-YE	1H19E	2H18	Movement	1H18	Movement
		forecasts	reported	HoH	reported	YoY
	Cash-flow statement
	Dividends from equity accounted entities	1,750	2,000	-250	1,000	750
	Capex (net of disposals)	633	401	232	543	90
	Free cash flow	2,268	2,575	-307	1,405	863
	Dividends and share buy-backs	1,552	478	1,074	1,236	316
	Balance sheet
	Net debt	-1,710	-995	-715	1,102	-2,812
	Working capital	1,762	2,004	-242	1,508	254
	Equity	27,095	25,907	1,188	23,385	3,710
	Key ratios
	Gearing*	-7%	-4%		5%
	Annualised Free cash-flow yield	17%	18%		18%
	Working capital days**	73	88	-0	67	0

*Gearing defined as net debt/(net debt +equity)

**Working capital days is defined as (working capital/revenue)*365/2

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

Renaissance Capital

6 February 2019

Metals & Mining

11

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Alrosa – FY18 results preview

Figure 13: Alrosa – forecasts vs previously reported numbers, RUBmn (unless otherwise stated)

	Dec-YE	2018E	2017	% change	2018E	RenCap vs
		forecasts	reported	YoY	consensus	Consensus
	Per share information, RUB
	EPS	14.07	10.47	34%	14.22	-1%
	Final DPS declared	11.44	5.24	118%	5.13	123%
	Total DPS declared	16.68	8.93	87%	10.37	61%
	Dividend payout ratio	119%	85%		73%
	Dividend yield	16.8%	10.3%		10.4%
	Income statement
	Revenue	300,214	275,381	9%
	Adjusted EBITDA	161,179	126,890	27%
	EBITDA margin	54%	46%
	EBIT	137,960	103,098	34%
	EBIT margin	46%	36%
	Attributable net profit	103,144	78,616	31%
	RoE	42%	30%

Note: Priced at close 1 February 2019

Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Renaissance Capital estimates

Figure 14: Alrosa – forecasts vs previously reported numbers, RUBmn (unless otherwise stated)

	Dec-YE	2018E	2017	Movement	1H18	Movement
		forecasts	reported	YoY	reported	HoH
	Cash-flow statement
	Capex	31,600	26,944	4,656	12,026	19,574
	Free cash flow	148,942	73,520	75,422	92,872	56,070
	Equity shareholders' cash	132,774	63,014	69,760	90,200	42,574
	Dividends and share buy-backs	94,823	65,706	29,117	10,180	84,643
	Balance sheet
	Working capital	89,019	109,519	-20,500	100,681	-11,662
	Net debt (cash)	48,095	86,047	-37,952	6,027	42,068
	Equity	221,213	266,825	-45,612	274,241	-53,028
	Key ratios
	Gearing*	18%	24%		2%
	Free cash-flow yield	19%	10%		28%
	Working capital days**	108	145	-37	109	-1

*Gearing defined as net debt/(net debt +equity)

**Working capital days is defined as (working capital/revenue)*365

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

Renaissance Capital

6 February 2019

Metals & Mining

12

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Anglo American – FY18 results preview

Figure 15: Anglo American – forecasts vs previously reported numbers, $mn (unless otherwise stated)

	Dec-YE	2018E	2017	% change	2018E	RenCap vs
		forecasts	reported	YoY	consensus	Consensus
	Per share information, USc
	Underlying EPS	261	257	2%	240	9%
	Final dividend	55.2	49.0	13%	48.2	15%
	Total dividend	104.2	102.0	2%	97.2	7%
	Dividend payout ratio	40%	40%		40%
	Dividend yield	4.0%	6.2%		3.7%
	Income statement
	Revenue	29,833	28,650	4%
	Underlying EBITDA	9,593	8,823	9%
	EBITDA margin	32%	31%
	Underlying EBIT	6,818	6,247	9%
	EBIT margin	23%	22%
	Underlying earnings	3,319	3,272	1%
	Annualised RoE	14.3%	15.6%
	Underlying EBIT per division
	Platinum	791	512	55%
	Diamonds	738	873	-15%
	Copper	1,228	923	33%
	Nickel	94	0	-
	Iron ore and manganese	1,391	1,978	-30%
	Coal	2,866	2,274	26%
	Corporate and other	-289	-313	8%
	Underlying EBIT	6,818	6,247	9%
	Group EBIT margin	23%	22%

Note: Priced at close 1 February 2019

Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Renaissance Capital estimates

Figure 16: Anglo American – forecasts vs previously reported numbers, $mn (unless otherwise stated)

	Dec-YE	2018E	2017	Movement	1H18	Movement
		forecasts	reported	YoY	reported	HoH
	Cash-flow statement
	Capex (net of disposals)	2,268	2,150	118	1,220	1,048
	Free cash flow	2,722	4,607	-1,885	-1,195	3,917
	Dividends and share buy-backs	1,311	621	690	681	630
	Balance sheet
	Net debt	3,090	4,501	-1,411	3,987	-897
	Working capital	2,705	2,558	147	2,648	57
	Net deferred tax liability	2,703	2,997	-294	2,726	-23
	Equity	23,517	22,972	545	22,393	1,124
	Key ratios
	Gearing*	12%	16%		15%
	Free cash-flow yield	9%	22%		12%
	Working capital days**	33	33	1	32	1

*Gearing defined as net debt/(net debt +equity)

**Working capital days is defined as (working capital/revenue)*365

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

Renaissance Capital

6 February 2019

Metals & Mining

13

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Assore – 1H19 results preview

Figure 17: Assore – forecasts vs previously reported numbers, ZARmn (unless otherwise stated)

	Jun-YE	1H19E	2H18	% change	1H18	% change
		forecasts	reported	HoH	reported	YoY
	Per share information, ZAc
	HEPS	2,710	2,598	4%	2,355	15%
	Interim dividend per share	1,400	1,200	17%	1,000	40%
	Dividend payout ratio	52%	46%		42%
	Annualised dividend yield	7.5%	6.9%		6.6%
	Income statement, ZARmm
	Revenue	2,889	3,167	-9%	3,139	-8%
	Profit before tax	1,118	1,288	-13%	1,024	9%
	Headline earnings	2,795	2,680	4%	2,429	15%
	RoE	8%	8%		8%
	Share of profit from joint venture, after taxation	1,982	1,788	11%	1,720	15%
	Note: Priced at close 1 February 2019

Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Renaissance Capital estimates

Figure 18: Assore – forecasts vs previously reported numbers, ZARmn (unless otherwise stated)

	Jun-YE	1H19E	2H18	Movement	1H18	Movement
		forecasts	reported	HoH	reported	YoY
	Cash-flow statement
	Underlying EBITDA	881	1,025	-144	820	61
	Dividends from equity-accounted investments	3,000	2,100	900	928	2,072
	Capex	138	200	-62	167	-29
	Free cash flow	3,810	2,362	1,448	2,356	1,454
	Dividends and share buy-backs	1,675	1,098	577	802	873
	Balance sheet
	Net debt (cash)	-10,000	-7,865	-2,135	-6,601	-3,399
	Working capital	238	214	23	-267	504
	Equity	27,211	26,091	1,120	24,524	2,687
	Key ratios
	Gearing*	-58%	-43%		-37%
	Free cash-flow yield	13%	11%		10%
	Working capital days**	4	4	0	-5	9

*Gearing defined as net debt/(net debt +equity)

**Working capital days is defined as (working capital/revenue)*365/2

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

Renaissance Capital

6 February 2019

Metals & Mining

14

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BHP – 1H19 results preview

Figure 19: BHP – forecasts vs previously reported numbers, $mn (unless otherwise stated)

	Jun-YE	1H19E	2H18	% change	1H18	% change
		forecasts	reported	HoH	reported	YoY
	Per share information, USc
	Underlying basic EPS	73.0	91.7	-20%	76.1	-4%
	Interim dividend per share	160.4	63.0	155%	55.0	-192%
	Dividend payout ratio	220%	69%		72%
	Annualised dividend yield	10.0%	5.5%		5.4%
	Income statement
	Revenue	20,851	21,868	-5%	21,782	-4%
	Underlying EBITDA	11,017	11,945	-8%	11,238	-2%
	EBITDA margin	53%	55%		52%
	Underlying EBIT	7,563	9,664	-22%	6,900	10%
	Underlying attributable profit	3,926	4,964	-21%	4,097	-4%
	RoE	16.7%	16.1%		13.4%
	Underlying EBIT per division
	Petroleum	971	1,360	-29%	186	422%
	Copper	904	2,338	-61%	2,052	-56%
	Iron Ore	3,818	3,765	1%	3,430	11%
	Coal	1,996	2,247	-11%	1,436	39%
	Group and unallocated	-126	-46	-174%	-204	38%
	Underlying EBIT	7,563	9,664	-22%	6,900	10%
	Group EBIT margin	36%	44%		32%

Note: Priced at close 1 February 2019

Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Renaissance Capital estimates

Figure 20: BHP – forecasts vs previously reported numbers, $mn (unless otherwise stated)

	Jun-YE	1H19E	2H18	Movement	1H18	Movement
		forecasts	reported	HoH	reported	YoY
	Cash-flow statement
	Capex (net of disposals)	-3,028	2,396	-5,424	2,583	-5,611
	Dividends and share buybacks	10,399	10,492	-93	5,298	5,101
	Free cash flow	9,172	7,406	1,766	3,201	5,971
	Equity shareholders' cash	8,554	2,929	5,625	2,291	6,263
	Balance sheet
	Net debt	10,316	10,934	-618	15,411	-5,095
	Working capital	2,554	2,355	199	3,006	-452
	Equity	50,816	55,592	-4,776	56,977	-6,161
	Key ratios
	Gearing*	17%	16%		21%
	Free cash-flow yield	16%	13%		6%
	Working capital days**	22	20	2	27	-5

*Gearing defined as net debt/(net debt +equity)

**Working capital days is defined as (working capital/revenue)*365/2

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

Renaissance Capital

6 February 2019

Metals & Mining

15

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Exxaro – FY18 results preview

Figure 21: Exxaro – forecasts vs previously reported results, ZARmn (unless otherwise stated)

	Dec-YE	2018E	2017	% change	2018E	RenCap vs
		forecasts	reported	YoY	consensus	Consensus
	Per share information, ZAR
	Headline earnings per share (HEPS)	30.17	5.02	501%	27.39	10%
	Final dividend	6.00	16.55	-64%	6.05	-1%
	Total dividend	11.30	19.55	-42%	11.35	0%
	Dividend payout ratio	37%	389%		41%
	Dividend yield	7.2%	16.56%		7.3%
	Income statement
	Revenue	24,963	22,813	9%
	Underlying EBITDA	8,238	7,207	14%
	EBITDA margin	33%	32%
	Underlying EBIT	6,763	5,814	16%
	EBIT margin	27%	25%
	Headline earnings	7,577	1,560	386%
	Annualised RoE	18%	4%
	Breakdown of underlying EBIT
	Coal	6,950	6,080	14%
	Ferrous	13	46	-72%
	Corporate and other	-201	-312	36%
	Total	6,763	5,814	16%
	Income from equity-accounted entities	3,301	3,952	-16%
	Note: Priced at close 1 February 2019
		Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Renaissance Capital estimates

Figure 22: Exxaro – forecasts vs previously reported results, ZARmn (unless otherwise stated)

	Dec-YE	2018E	2017	Movement	1H18	Movement
		forecasts	reported	YoY	reported	HoH
	Cash-flow statement
	Capex (net of disposals)	2,586	1,499	1,087	1,306	1,280
	Dividends from associates	6,070	3,921	2,149	2,037	4,033
	Free cash flow	3,212	5,125	-1,912	1,569	1,643
	Dividends and share buybacks (issues)	5,483	3,715	1,768	4,153	1,330
	Balance sheet
	Net debt (cash)	2,201	-70	2,271	2,514	-313
	Working capital	1,518	1,017	501	1,525	-7
	Net deferred taxation	6,724	5,417	1,307	6,075	649
	Equity	42,558	40,103	2,455	39,378	3,180
	Key ratios
	Gearing*	4.9%	-0.2%		6.0%
	Free cash flow yield	9.4%	17.3%		8.7%
	Working capital days**	22	16	6	23	-1

*Gearing defined as net debt/(net debt +equity)

**Working capital days is defined as (Working capital/revenue)*365

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

Renaissance Capital

6 February 2019

Metals & Mining

16

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Fortescue – 1H19 results preview

Figure 23: Fortescue – forecasts vs previously reported numbers, $mn (unless otherwise stated)

	Jun-YE	1H19E	2H18	% change	1H18	% change
		forecasts	reported	HoH	reported	YoY
	Per share information, USc
	Basic EPS, USc	17.6	6.3	179%	21.9	-20%
	Interim dividend per share	13.8	12.0	15%	11.0	26%
	Dividend payout ratio	57%	147%		39%
	Annualised dividend yield	4.7%	8.4%		7.0%
	Income statement
	Revenue	3,555	3,208	11%	3,679	-3%
	Underlying EBITDA	1,521	1,387	10%	1,795	-15%
	EBITDA margin	43%	43%		49%
	Net profit for the year	544	198	175%	681	-20%
	RoE	11%	4%		14%

Note: Priced at close 1 February 2019

Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Renaissance Capital estimates

Figure 24: Fortescue – forecasts vs previously reported numbers, $mn (unless otherwise stated)

	Jun-YE	1H19E	2H18	Movement	1H18	Movement
		forecasts	reported	HoH	reported	YoY
	Cash-flow statement
	Capex	520	477	43	413	107
	Free cash flow	562	448	114	-42	604
	Dividends and share buybacks	371	271	100	614	-243
	Balance sheet
	Working capital	214	-17	231	326	-112
	Deferred tax	1,599	1,606	-7	1,555	44
	Net debt	2,921	3,112	-191	3,289	-368
	Equity	9,892	9,719	173	9,785	107
	Key ratios
	Gearing*	23%	23%		24%
	Free cash-flow yield	4%	3%		0%
	Working capital days**	12	-1	12	16	-4

*Gearing defined as net debt/(net debt +equity)

**Working capital days is defined as (working capital/revenue)*365/2

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

Renaissance Capital

6 February 2019

Metals & Mining

17

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Glencore – FY18 results preview

Figure 25: Glencore – forecasts vs previously reported results, $mn (unless otherwise stated)

	Dec-YE	2018E	2017	% change	2018E	% diff
		forecasts	reported	YoY	consensus
	Per share information, USc
	EPS (pre-significant items)	45.0	38.0	+18%	41.7	+8%
	Final dividend per share	30.0	0.0	-	20.2	+49%
	Total dividend per share	30.0	20.0	+50%	20.2	+49%
	Dividend payout ratio	68%	53%		48%
	Dividend yield	7.5%	4.7%		5.0%
	Income statement
	Revenue	225,864	208,768	+8%
	Adjusted EBITDA	16,465	14,762	+12%
	Adjusted EBIT	10,009	8,552	+17%
	Marketing activities
	Metals and minerals	2,164	2,005	+8%
	Energy products	738	990	-25%
	Agricultural products	92	192	-52%
	Corporate and other	-199	-175	-14%
	Marketing EBIT	2,795	3,012	-7%
	Industrial activities
	Metals and minerals	4,411	4,496	-2%
	Energy products	3,247	1,424	+128%
	Corporate and other	-444	-380	-17%
	Industrial EBIT	7,214	5,540	+30%
	Adjusted EBIT	10,009	8,552	+17%
	Net income pre-significant items	6,317	5,508	+15%
	RoE	13.1%	11.7%

Note: Priced at close 1 February 2019

Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Renaissance Capital estimates

Figure 26: Glencore – forecasts vs previously reported results, $mn (unless otherwise stated)

	Dec-YE	2018E	2017	Movement	1H18	Movement
		forecasts	reported	YoY	reported	HoH
	Cash-flow statement
	Funds from operations (FFO)	12,603	11,556	1,047	5,625	6,978
	Capex less disposals	7,473	3,623	3,850	2,014	5,459
	Free cash flow	1,567	725	842	2,747	-1,180
	Dividends and share buybacks	4,872	1,004	3,868	1,743	3,129
	Balance sheet
	Working capital	13,087	13,431	-344	10,697	2,390
	Other financial liabilities	4,057	4,522	-465	4,057	0
	Provisions	7,844	7,571	273	7,539	305
	Net deferred tax liability	5,273	5,291	-18	5,173	100
	Net funding	36,203	32,898	3,305	31,894	4,309
	Net debt less readily marketable inventories (RMI)	16,078	10,673	5,405	8,997	7,081
	Equity	47,000	49,755	-2,755	47,105	-105
	Key ratios
	Gearing*	25%	18%		16%
	Free cash-flow yield	2%	1%		10%
	Working capital days**	21	21	0	20	1

*Gearing defined as net debt less RMI/(net debt less RMI+equity)

**Working capital days is defined as (working capital/turnover)*365

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

Renaissance Capital

6 February 2019

Metals & Mining

18

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Kumba Iron Ore – FY18 results preview

Figure 27: Kumba – forecasts vs previously reported results, ZARmn (unless otherwise stated)

	Dec-YE	2018E	2017	% change	2018E	RenCap vs
		forecasts	reported	YoY	consensus	Consensus
	Per share information, ZAR
	Headline earnings per share (HEPS)	30.11	30.47	-1%	29.06	4%
	Final dividend per share	22.90	15.00	53%	16.23	41%
	Total dividend per share	37.41	30.97	21%	30.74	22%
	Dividend payout ratio	125%	80%		106%
	Dividend yield	12%	14%		9.0%
	Income statement
	Revenue	45,898	46,379	-1%
	Underlying EBITDA	20,383	19,691	4%
	EBITDA margin	44%	42%
	Underlying EBIT	16,810	16,664	1%
	EBIT margin	37%	36%
	Required breakeven price, $/t	35.0	39.6	-12%
	Headline earnings	9,675	9,728	-1%
	Annualised RoE	28%	39%

Note: Priced at close 1 February 2019

Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Renaissance Capital estimates

Figure 28: Kumba – forecasts vs previously reported results, ZARmn (unless otherwise stated)

	Dec-YE	2018E	2017	Movement	1H18	Movement
		forecasts	reported	YoY	reported	HoH
	Cash-flow statement
	Capex	3,800	3,074	726	1,429	2,371
	Free cash flow	9,168	12,853	-3,685	2,621	6,547
	Dividends and share buybacks	9,504	5,144	4,360	-4,831	14,335
	Balance sheet
	Net debt (cash)	-13,538	-13,874	336	-11,664	-1,874
	Working capital	6,400	4,666	1,734	5,496	904
	Deferred tax	9,006	8,788	218	8,843	163
	Equity	35,270	34,769	501	33,245	2,025
	Key ratios
	Gearing*	-62%	-66%		-54%
	Free cash-flow yield	9%	19%		2%
	Working capital days**	51	37	14	52	-1

*Gearing defined as net debt/(net debt +equity)

**Working capital days is defined as (Working capital/revenue)*365

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

Renaissance Capital

6 February 2019

Metals & Mining

19

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Norilsk Nickel – FY18 results preview

Figure 29: Norilsk – forecasts vs previously reported results, $mn (unless otherwise stated)

	Dec-YE	2018E	2017	% change	2018E	Rencap vs
		forecasts	reported	YoY	consensus	Consensus
	Per share information, $
	Underlying earnings per GDR	2.2	1.3	60%	2.4	-10%
	Dividend per share declared	2.2	1.2	85%	2.1	4%
	Dividend yield	10.4%	7.2%		36%
	Income statement
	Revenue	11,346	9,146	24%
	Underlying EBITDA	5,924	3,995	48%
	Operating profit (EBIT)	5,193	3,123	66%
	EBIT margin	46%	34%
	Underlying earnings	3,403	2,129	60%

Note: Priced at close 1 February 2019

Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Renaissance Capital estimates

Figure 30: Norilsk – forecasts vs previously reported results, $mn (unless otherwise stated)

	Dec-YE	2018E	2017	Movement	1H18	Movement
		forecasts	reported	YoY	reported	HoH
	Cash-flow statement
	Capex	1,650	2,002	-352	536	1,114
	Free cash flow	3,448	3,004	444	29	3,419
	Dividends and share buybacks	4,148	-667	4,815	2,364	1,784
	Balance sheet
	Working capital	1,208	2,414	-1,206	1,951	-743
	Net debt (cash)	7,466	8,201	-735	5,830	1,636
	Equity	3,876	4,333	-457	5,568	-1,692
	Key ratios
	Gearing*	83%	46%		83%	0%
	Free cash-flow yield	66%	65%		59%	7%
	Working capital days**	39	96	-57	61	-22

*Gearing defined as net debt/(net debt +equity)

**Working capital days is defined as (Working capital/revenue)*365

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

Renaissance Capital

6 February 2019

Metals & Mining

20

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Rio Tinto – FY18 results preview

Figure 31: Rio Tinto – forecasts vs previously reported numbers, $mn (unless otherwise stated)

	Dec-YE	2018E	2017	% change	2018E	RenCap vs
		forecasts	reported	YoY	consensus	Consensus
	Per share information, USc
	Underlying EPS	504	483	4%	510	-1%
	Final dividend per share	150	180	-17%	172	-13%
	Total dividend per share	277	290	-4%	299	-7%
	Dividend payout ratio	55%	60%		59%
	Dividend yield	5.0%	6.6%		5.4%
	Income statement
	Revenue	42,679	41,857	2%
	Underlying EBITDA	18,453	18,584	-1%
	EBIT	13,543	14,474	-6%
	EBIT margin	50%	52%
	Underlying earnings	8,679	8,627	1%
	RoE	20%	21%
	Underlying EBITDA per business unit
	Iron ore	12,009	12,290	-2%
	Energy	663	1,238	-46%
	Aluminium	3,462	3,423	1%
	Copper	2,496	1,617	54%
	Diamonds	261	287	-9%
	Minerals	751	799	-6%
	Exploration and other	-1,190	-1,070	-11%
	Total underlying EBITDA	18,453	18,584	-1%
	Group EBITDA margin	43%	44%

Note: Priced at close 1 February 2019

Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Renaissance Capital estimates

Figure 32: Rio Tinto – forecasts vs previously reported numbers, $mn (unless otherwise stated)

	Dec-YE	2018E	2017	Movement	1H18	Movement
		forecasts	reported	YoY	reported	HoH
	Cash-flow statement
	Capex (net of disposals)	-2,450	4,761	-7,211	2,584	-5,034
	Free cash flow	13,483	12,075	1,408	3,294	10,189
	Dividends and share buybacks	10,789	6,333	4,456	4,678	6,111
	Balance sheet
	Working capital	1,444	882	562	991	453
	Net debt	1,151	3,845	-2,694	5,229	-4,078
	Equity	40,485	44,711	-4,226	42,333	-1,848
	Key ratios
	Gearing*	3%	8%		11%
	Free cash-flow yield	15%	15%		7%
	Working capital days**	12	8	5	8	4

*Gearing defined as net debt/(net debt +equity)

**Working capital days is defined as (working capital/revenue)*365

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

Renaissance Capital

6 February 2019

Metals & Mining

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Rusal – FY18 results preview

Figure 33: Rusal – forecasts vs previously reported numbers, $mn (unless otherwise stated)

	Dec-YE	2018E	2017	% change	2018E	RenCap vs
		forecasts	reported	YoY	consensus	Consensus
	Per share information, USc
	Underlying EPS	12.6	8.0	57%	12.5	1%
	DPS declared	2.6	2.0	33%	5.8	-55%
	Dividend payout ratio	21%	24%		47%
	Dividend yield	6.2%	3.4%		13.9%
	Income statement
	Revenue	10,136	9,969	2%
	Adjusted EBITDA	2,240	2,120	6%
	EBIT	1,738	1,607	8%
	EBIT margin	16%	15%
	Underlying earnings	1,917	1,222	57%
	Adjusted EBITDA per business unit
	Aluminium EBITDA	2,131	2,204	-3%
	Alumina EBITDA	389	232	68%
	Other EBITDA	-280	-316	11%
	Adjusted EBITDA	2,240	2,120	6%
	Group EBITDA margin	22%	21%

Note: Priced at close 1 February 2019

Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Renaissance Capital estimates

Figure 34: Rusal – forecasts vs previously reported numbers, $mn (unless otherwise stated)

	Dec-YE	2018E	2017	Movement	1H18	Movement
		forecasts	reported	YoY	reported	HoH
	Cash-flow statement
	Capex (net of disposals)	770	842	-72	521	249
	Free cash flow	1,062	1,072	-10	986	76
	Dividends and share buybacks	396	299	97	299	97
	Balance sheet
	Working capital	2,252	1,761	491	1,761	491
	Net debt	6,982	7,648	-666	7,648	-666
	Equity	5,285	4,441	844	4,441	844
	Key ratios
	Gearing*	57%	63%		63%
	Free cash-flow yield	22%	21%		14%
	Working capital days**	81	64	17	62	19

*Gearing defined as net debt/(net debt +equity)

**Working capital days is defined as (working capital/revenue)*365

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

Renaissance Capital

6 February 2019

Metals & Mining

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South32– 1H19 results preview

Figure 35: South32 – forecasts vs previously reported numbers, $mn (unless otherwise stated)

	Jun-YE	1H19E	2H18	% change	1H18	% change
		forecasts	reported	HoH	reported	YoY
	Per share information, USc
	Underlying EPS	12.0	15.2	-21%	10.5	14%
	Interim dividend per share	9.6	6.2	55%	7.3	32%
	Dividend payout ratio	80%	41%		70%
	Annualised dividend yield	6.2%	4.8%		5.6%
	Income statement
	Revenue	3,664	4,055	-10%	3,494	5%
	Underlying EBITDA	1,251	1,429	-12%	1,087	15%
	EBITDA margin	34%	35%		31%
	Underlying EBIT	873	1,050	-17%	724	21%
	Underlying earnings	611	783	-22%	544	12%
	RoE	13%	13%		12%
	Dividend declared	242	317	-24%	223	9%
	Underlying EBIT per division
	Aluminium	457	479	-5%	391	17%
	Manganese	435	452	-4%	385	13%
	Nickel	13	79	-84%	41	-69%
	Cannington	37	111	-67%	72	-48%
	Energy Coal South Africa	80	161	-51%	115	-31%
	Illawarra Metallurgical Coal	108	22	389%	-84	228%
	Other	-256	-254	-1%	-196	-31%
	Underlying EBIT	873	1,050	-17%	724	21%
	Group EBIT margin	24%	26%		21%

Note: Priced at close 1 February 2019

Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Renaissance Capital estimates

Figure 36: South32 – forecasts vs previously reported numbers, $mn (unless otherwise stated)

	Jun-YE	1H19E	2H18	Movement	1H18	Movement
		forecasts	reported	HoH	reported	YoY
	Cash-flow statement
	Dividends from equity accounted entities	262	156	106	238	24
	Tax paid	207	140	67	144	63
	Capex (net of disposals)	1,741	231	1510	199	1542
	Free cash flow	-457	1,146	-1603	217	-674
	Dividends and share buy backs	483	536	-53	426	57
	Balance sheet
	Net debt (cash)	-1,101	-2,041	940	-1,431	330
	Provisions	2,182	2,078	104	2,011	171
	Working capital	807	953	-146	1,046	-239
	Equity	10,838	10,710	128	10,380	458
	Key ratios
	Gearing*	-11%	-24%		-16%
	Free cash-flow yield	-7%	18%		3%
	Working capital days**	38	46	-8	53	-15

*Gearing defined as net debt/(net debt +equity)

**Working capital days is defined as (working capital/revenue)*365/2

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

Renaissance Capital

6 February 2019

Metals & Mining

23

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Vale – FY18 results preview

Figure 37: Vale – forecasts vs previously reported numbers, $mn (unless otherwise stated)

	Dec-YE	2018E	2017	% change	2018E	RenCap vs
		forecasts	reported	YoY	consensus	Consensus
	Per share information, USc
	Underlying EPS	1.57	1.39	13%	1.32	19%
	Final dividend per share	0.00	0.28	-100%	0.28	-100%
	Total dividend per share	0.40	0.28	40%	0.68	-42%
	Dividend payout ratio	25%	20%		51%
	Dividend yield	3.1%	2.9%		5.4%
	Income statement
	Revenue	37,397	35,713	5%
	Adjusted EBITDA	17,312	15,337	13%
	EBITDA margin	46%	43%
	Adjusted EBIT	13,750	10,873	26%
	Underlying earnings	8,145	7,188	13%
	ROE	19%	17%
	Underlying EBIT per division
	Ferrous Minerals	13,385	11,497	16%
	Coal	21	-25	183%
	Base metals	991	501	98%
	Fertiliser nutrients	-109	-885	88%
	Others and logistics	-538	-215	-150%
	Adjusted EBIT	13,750	10,873	26%
	Group EBIT margin	37%	30%

Note: Priced at close 1 February 2019

Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Renaissance Capital estimates

Figure 38: Vale – forecasts vs previously reported numbers, $mn (unless otherwise stated)

	Dec-YE	2018E	2017	Movement	1H18	Movement
		forecasts	reported	YoY	reported	HoH
	Cash-flow statement
	Operating cash flow	12,946	16,819	-23%	5,232	7,714
	Capex	2,385	4,154	-1,769	499	1,886
	Free cash flow	12,538	8,574	3,964	7,406	5,132
	Dividends and share buybacks	3,155	1,675	1,480	782	2,373
	Balance sheet
	Net debt	8,778	18,161	-9,383	11,537	-2,759
	Working capital	1,133	636	497	1,035	98
	Net deferred tax liability	4,024	4,919	-895	-4,857	8,881
	Equity	43,493	43,458	35	41,948	1,545
	Key ratios
	Gearing*	17%	29%		22%
	Free cash-flow yield	18%	17%		21%
	Working capital days**	11	7	5	11	0

*Gearing defined as net debt/(net debt +equity)

**Working capital days is defined as (working capital/revenue)*365

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

Renaissance Capital

6 February 2019

Metals & Mining

24

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AngloGold Ashanti – FY18 results preview

Figure 39: AngloGold – forecasts vs previously reported results

	Dec-YE	2018E	2017	% change	2018E	RenCap vs
		forecasts	reported	YoY	consensus	Consensus
	Per share information, USc
	Headline earnings per share (HEPS)	58	6	863%	62	-7%
	Adjusted HEPS	55	1	5375%	62	-12%
	Final dividend per share	8	5	46%	7	3%
	Total dividend per share	8	5	46%	7	3%
	Dividend payout ratio	14%	514%		12%
	Dividend yield	0.5%	0.4%		0.5%
	Income statement, $mn*
	Revenue	4,542	4,809	-6%
	Adjusted EBITDA	1,731	1,750	-1%
	EBITDA margin	38%	36%
	Headline earnings	239	27	786%
	Adjusted gross profit by region, $mn
	South Africa	6	-12	146%
	Continental Africa	346	385	-10%
	Australasia	187	160	17%
	Americas	309	254	22%
	Corporate and other	16	3	447%
	Group EBIT	864	790	9%
	EBIT margin	19%	16%
	Note: Priced at close 1 February 2019
	* Associates consolidated proportionately
		Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Renaissance Capital estimates
	Figure 40: AngloGold – forecasts vs previously reported results
	Dec-YE	2018E	2017	Movement	1H18	Movement
		forecasts	reported	YoY	reported	HoH
	Cash-flow statement, $mn
	Capex	771	964	-193	335	436
	Balance sheet, $mn
	Net debt	1,759	2,001	-242	1,783	-24
	Working capital	652	378	274	488	164
	Equity	2,745	2,663	82	2,605	140
	Key ratios
	RoE	9%	1%		8%
	Gearing*	39%	43%		41%
	Working capital days**	52	29	24	39	13

*Gearing defined as net debt/(net debt +equity)

**Working capital days is defined as (Working capital/revenue)*365

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

Renaissance Capital

6 February 2019

Metals & Mining

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Gold Fields – FY18 results preview

Figure 41: Gold Fields – forecasts vs previously reported results

	Dec-YE	2018E	2017	% change	2018E	RenCap vs
		forecasts	reported	YoY	consensus	Consensus
	Per share information, USc
	Headline earnings per share (HEPS)	16	24	-33%	11	41%
	Normalised earnings per share	13	17	-24%	11	15%
	Final dividend per share	40	50	-20%	25	59%
	Total dividend per share	60	90	-33%	45	33%
	Payout ratio on normalised earnings	32.5%	39.4%		29%
	Dividend yield	1.0%	1.7%		0.8%
	Income statement, $mn	2,552	2,811	-9%
	Revenue	2,552	2,811	-9%
	EBITDA	1,274	1,407	-9%
	EBITDA margin	50%	50%
	Headline earnings	139	194	-28%
	Net operating profit by region, $mn
	South Africa	-58	-25	-133%
	West Africa	204	221	-8%
	South America	97	108	-10%
	Australia	331	332	0%
	Group EBIT	574	635	-10%
	EBIT margin	22%	23%
	Note: Priced at close 1 February 2019
		Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Renaissance Capital estimates
	Figure 42: Gold Fields – forecasts vs previously reported results
	Dec-YE	2018E	2017	Movement	1H18	Movement
		forecasts	reported	YoY	reported	HoH
	Cash-flow statement, $mn
	Capex	799	834	-35	397	402
	Balance sheet, $mn
	Net debt	1,523	1,303	220	1,393	129
	Working capital	-11	-65	54	17	-28
	Equity	2,811	3,276	-465	2,732	79
	Key ratios
	RoE	4.6%	6.1%		4.4%
	Gearing*	35.1%	28.4%		33.8%
	Working capital days**	-2	-8	7	2	-4

*Gearing defined as net debt/(net debt +equity)

**Working capital days is defined as (Working capital/revenue)*365

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

Renaissance Capital

6 February 2019

Metals & Mining

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Harmony – 1H19 results preview

Figure 43: Harmony – forecasts vs previously reported results

	Jun-YE	1H19E	2H18	% change	1H18	% change
		forecasts	reported	HoH	reported	YoY
	Per share information, ZAc
	Headline earnings per share (HEPS)	257	-53	585%	224	15%
	Interim dividend per share	35	0	-	35	0%
	Payout ratio on normalised earnings	14%	0%		16%
	Annualised dividend yield at ZAc2693	2.6%	0.0%		2.9%
	Income statement, ZARmn
	Revenue	12,898	10,516	23%	9,842	31%
	EBITDA	3,924	2,644	48%	2,712	45%
	EBITDA margin	30%	25%		28%
	EBIT	2,418	1,327	82%	1,459	66%
	Headline earnings	1,286	-227	667%	990	30%
	Net operating profit by mine, ZARmn
	Kusasalethu	64	55	16%	86	-26%
	Doornkop	98	157	-38%	145	-33%
	Tshepong/Phakisa	365	303	20%	615	-41%
	Masimong	65	-8	931%	170	-62%
	Target 1	12	-11	205%	118	-90%
	Bambanani	200	252	-21%	267	-25%
	Joel	-87	-80	-9%	-3	-2622%
	Unisel	5	-55	109%	-75	107%
	Moab	659	493	34%	0	-
	South Africa Surface	94	104	-10%	131	-28%
	Hidden Valley	531	116	360%	3	15429%
	Total	2,006	1,327	51%	1,459	38%
	EBIT margin	16%	13%		15%
	Note: Priced at close 1 February 2019
		Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Renaissance Capital estimates
	Figure 44: Harmony – forecasts vs previously reported results
	Jun-YE	1H19E	2H18	Movement	1H18	Movement
		forecasts	reported	HoH	reported	YoY
	Cash-flow statement, $mn
	Capex	2,555	2,006	549	2,565	-10
	Balance sheet, $mn
	Net debt	4,492	4,908	-416	1,511	2,981
	Working capital	267	240	27	143	124
	Equity	26,776	25,382	1,394	29,750	-2,974
	Key ratios
	RoE	9.6%	-1.8%		6.7%
	Gearing*	14%	16%		5%
	Working capital days**	4	4	-0.4	3	1.1

*Gearing defined as net debt/(net debt +equity)

**Working capital days is defined as (Working capital/revenue)*365/2

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

Renaissance Capital

6 February 2019

Metals & Mining

27

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Polymetal – FY18 results preview

Figure 45: Polymetal – forecasts vs previously reported results

	Dec-YE	2018E	2017	% change	2018E	RenCap vs
		forecasts	reported	YoY	consensus	Consensus
	Per share information, USc
	Earnings per share (EPS)	98.0	88.0	11%	88.5	11%
	Final dividend per share	32.0	30.0	7%	25.8	24%
	Total dividend per share	49.0	44.0	11%	42.8	15%
	Payout ratio on normalised earnings	50%	50%		48%
	Dividend yield	4.3%	3.9%		3.8%
	Income statement, $mn
	Revenue	1,920	1,815	6%
	EBITDA	808	745	9%
	EBITDA margin	42%	41%
	EBIT	624	531	17%
	EBIT margin	33%	29%
	Headline earnings	444	376	18%
	Adjusted EBITDA per mine, $mn
	Voro	87	99	-12%
	Okhotsk operations	181	159	14%
	Dukat	144	179	-20%
	Omolon	104	121	-14%
	Varvara	79	67	17%
	Amursk-Albazino	192	157	22%
	Armenia	14	20	-29%
	Mayskoye	46	20	134%
	Kyzyl	33	-14	330%
	Corporate and other	-71	-63	-13%
	Group Adjusted EBITDA	808	745	9%
	Note: Priced at close 1 February 2019
		Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Renaissance Capital estimates
	Figure 46: Polymetal – forecasts vs previously reported results
	Dec-YE	2018E	2017	Movement	1H18	Movement
		forecasts	reported	YoY	reported	HoH
	Cash-flow statement, $mn
	Capex	365	432	-67	185	180
	Balance sheet, $mn
	Net debt	1,418	1,420	-2	1,652	-234
	Working capital	560	542	18	640	-80
	Equity	1,563	1,307	256	1,366	197
	Key ratios
	RoE	30.9%	32.9%		22.7%
	Gearing*	47.6%	52.1%		54.7%
	Working capital days**	106	109	-3	148	-42

*Gearing defined as net debt/(net debt +equity)

**Working capital days is defined as (Working capital/revenue)*365

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

Renaissance Capital

6 February 2019

Metals & Mining

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Polyus – FY18 results preview

Figure 47: Polyus – forecasts vs previously reported results

	Dec-YE	2018E	2017	% change	2018E	RenCap vs
		forecasts	reported	YoY	consensus	Consensus
	Per share information, USc
	Calculated adjusted EPS	993.9	789.1	26%	964.1	3%
	Income statement, $mn
	Revenue	2,867	2,721	5%
	Adjusted EBITDA	1,855	1,702	9%
	EBITDA margin	65%	63%
	Adjusted EBIT	1,527	1,485	3%
	EBIT margin	53%	55%
	Adjusted net profit	1,314	1,015	29%
	Adjusted EBITDA by mine, $mn
	Olimpiada	1,119	953	17%
	Blagodatnoye	361	414	-13%
	Verninskoye	187	149	25%
	Alluvials	40	54	-26%
	Kuranakh	130	109	20%
	Natalka	9	0	-
	Other	9	23	-61%
	Total	1,855	1,702	9%
	Note: Priced at close 1 February 2019
		Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Renaissance Capital estimates
	Figure 48: Polyus – forecasts vs previously reported results
	Dec-YE	2018E	2017	Movement	1H18	Movement
		forecasts	reported	YoY	reported	HoH
	Cash-flow statement, $mn
	Capex	815	804	11	401	414
	Balance sheet, $mn
	Net debt	3,275	3,077	198	3,208	67
	Working capital	240	148	92	237	3
	Equity	420	564	-144	554	-134
	Key ratios
	Net debt to adjusted EBITDA	1.8x	1.8x		1.8x
	Working capital days**	31	20	11	33	-3

*Gearing defined as net debt/(net debt +equity)

**Working capital days is defined as (Working capital/revenue)*365

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

Renaissance Capital

6 February 2019

Metals & Mining

29

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Sibanye-Stillwater – FY18 results preview

Figure 49: Sibanye – forecasts vs previously reported results

	Dec-YE	2018E	2017	% change	2018E	RenCap vs
		forecasts	reported	YoY	consensus	Consensus
	Per share information, USc
	Headline earnings per share (HEPS)	2.2	-1.0	316%	2.2	0%
	Normalised earnings per share	0.1	-2.9	103%	2.2	-95%
	Income statement, $mn
	Revenue	3,745	3,449	9%
	EBITDA	705	680	4%
	EBITDA margin	19%	20%
	Headline earnings	51	-17	401%
	Net operating profit by mine, $mn
	Driefontein	-59	54	-210%
	Kloof	76	123	-39%
	Beatrix	14	16	-14%
	Cooke	-37	-59	36%
	Rustenburg	83	45	84%
	Kroondal	25	15	60%
	Mimosa	31	23	33%
	Stillwater	133	54	148%
	Corporate	-35	-24	-48%
	Group EBIT	233	251	-7%
	EBIT margin	6%	7%
	Note: Priced at close 1 February 2019
		Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Renaissance Capital estimates
	Figure 50: Sibanye – forecasts vs previously reported results
	Dec-YE	2018E	2017	Movement	1H18	Movement
		forecasts	reported	YoY	reported	HoH
	Cash-flow statement, $mn
	Capex	528	458	69	248	280
	Balance sheet, $mn
	Net debt (including Burnstone)	1,424	1,908	-484	1,937	-513
	Working capital	-239	257	-497	266	-506
	Equity	1,901	1,942	-41	1,858	42
	Key ratios
	RoE	2.6%	-1.1%		0.9%
	Gearing*	42.8%	49.6%		51.0%
	Working capital days**	-23	27	-51	25	-48

*Gearing defined as net debt/(net debt +equity)

**Working capital days is defined as (Working capital/revenue)*365

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

Renaissance Capital

6 February 2019

Metals & Mining

30

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Anglo American Platinum (Amplats) – FY18 results preview

Figure 51: Amplats – forecasts vs previously reported results

	Dec-YE	2018E	2017	% change	2018E	RenCap vs
		forecasts	reported	YoY	consensus	Consensus
	Per share information, ZAc
	Headline earnings per share (HEPS)	3,089	1,482	108%	2,648	17%
	Final dividend per share	542	349	55%	408	33%
	Total dividend per share	916	349	162%	782	17%
	Payout ratio	30%	24%		30%
	Dividend yield at ZAR636	1.4%	0.5%		1.2%
	Income statement, ZARmn
	Net revenue	74,174	65,671	13%
	Underlying EBITDA	16,950	13,186	29%
	EBITDA margin	23%	20%
	Headline earnings	8,218	3,886	111%
	Operating contribution per division, ZARmn
	Mogalakwena	8,266	7,029	18%
	Amandelbult	3,042	1,699	79%
	Unki	537	369	46%
	Twickenham	-314	-376	16%
	Modikwa	383	246	56%
	Mototolo	799	200	299%
	Kroondal	847	213	298%
	Rustenburg	0	0	-
	Union	65	974	-93%
	Total – mined	13,625	10,354	32%
	Third-party purchases	2,510	2,104	19%
	Other costs	-3,381	-3,375	0%
	Gross profit on metal sales	12,755	9,083	40%
	Gross profit margin	17%	14%
	Note: Priced at close 1 February 2019
		Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Renaissance Capital estimates
	Figure 52: Amplats – forecasts vs previously reported results
	Dec-YE	2018E	2017	Movement	1H18	Movement
		forecasts	reported	YoY	reported	HoH
	Cash-flow statement, ZARmn
	Capex (net of disposals)	6,366	4,744	1,622	2,766	3,600
	Balance sheet, ZARmn
	Net debt	-814	1,833	-2,647	-477	-337
	Working capital	10,103	9,270	833	8,378	1,725
	Equity	46,964	41,527	5,437	43,114	3,850
	Key ratios
	Annualised RoE	18.6%	9.5%		15.9%
	Gearing*	-2%	4%		-1%
	Working capital days**	50	52	-2	46	4

*Gearing defined as net debt/(net debt +equity)

**Working capital days is defined as (Working capital/revenue)*365

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

Renaissance Capital

6 February 2019

Metals & Mining

31

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Impala Platinum – 1H19 results preview

Figure 53: Impala Platinum – forecasts vs previously reported numbers

	Jun-YE	1H19E	2H18	% change	1H18	% change
		forecasts	reported	HoH	reported	YoY
	Per share information, ZAc
	Headline EPS	148	-150	199%	-21	806%
	Income statement, ZARmn
	Revenue (IFRS)	22,472	18,574	21%	17,280	30%
	Gross profit	2,352	224	950%	610	286%
	Gross profit margin	10%	1%		3%
	Profit from operations (IFRS), ZARmn	1,618	-13,372	112%	206	685%
	Income from equity-accounted associates and JV	303	195	55%	188	61%
	Profit before tax	1,551	-13,235	112%	193	704%
	Headline earnings	1,065	-1,078	199%	-150	810%
	Note: Priced at close 1 February 2019
		Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Renaissance Capital estimates
	Figure 54: Impala Platinum – forecasts vs previously reported numbers
	Jun-YE	1H19E	2H18	Movement	1H18	Movement
		forecasts	reported	HoH	reported	YoY
	Cash-flow statement, ZARmn
	Capex (equity accounted)	2,124	2,703	-579	1,903	221
	Balance sheet, ZARmn
	Net debt including leases	3,494	6,647	-3,153	5,119	-1,625
	Working capital	6,320	8,792	-2,472	8,757	-2,437
	Equity	38,278	37,213	1,065	46,486	-8,208
	Key ratios
	RoE	5.6%	-5.2%		-0.6%
	Gearing*	8.4%	15.2%		9.9%
	Working capital days**	47	79	-32	83	-36

*Gearing defined as net debt/(net debt +equity)

**Working capital days is defined as (Working capital/revenue)*365/2

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

Renaissance Capital

6 February 2019

Metals & Mining

32

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Lonmin – 1H19 results preview

Figure 55: Lonmin – forecasts vs previously reported numbers

	Sep-YE	1H19E	2H18	% change	1H18	% diff
		forecasts	reported	YoY	reported	consensus
	Per share information, USc
	Underlying EPS	25	38	-36%	-16	254%
	Income statement, $mn
	Revenue	683	784	-13%	561	22%
	Underlying EBITDA	127	141	-10%	-26	589%
	EBITDA margin	19%	18%		-5%
	Underlying operating profit	118	133	-11%	-32	469%
	EBIT margin	17%	17%		-6%
	Underlying attributable profit	69	108	-36%	-45	254%
	Refined metal sales volumes, k oz
	Platinum	330	331	0%	298	11%
	Palladium	154	154	0%	139	11%
	Rhodium	48	48	1%	42	14%
	Gold	8	8	7%	7	14%
	Total PGM sales	651	759	-14%	555	17%
	Note: Priced at close 1 February 2019
		Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Renaissance Capital estimates
	Figure 56: Lonmin – forecasts vs previously reported numbers
	Sep-YE	1H19E	2H18	Movement	1H18	Movement
		forecasts	reported	HoH	reported	YoY
	Cash flow statement, $mn
	Capex, $mn	55	40	15	33	22
	Balance sheet, $mn
	Working capital	133	79	54	143	-10
	Net debt (cash)	-97	-114	17	-17	-80
	Equity	826	757	69	647	179
	Key ratios
	RoE	17%	31%		-20%
	Gearing*	-13%	-18%		-3%
	Working capital days**	35	18	17	47	-11

*Gearing defined as net debt/(net debt +equity)

**Working capital days is defined as (Working capital/revenue)*365/2

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

Renaissance Capital

6 February 2019

Metals & Mining

33

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Northam Platinum – 1H19 results preview

Figure 57: Northam – forecasts vs previously reported numbers, ZARmn (unless otherwise stated)

	Jun-YE	1H19E	2H18	% change	1H18	% change
		forecasts	reported	HoH	reported	YoY
	Per share information, ZAc
	Headline EPS (HEPS)	-4	-121	96%	-80	95%
	Normalised EPS	126	46	176%	37	240%
	Income statement
	Revenue	6,892	4,200	64%	3,353	106%
	Underlying EBITDA	1,418	710	100%	558	154%
	EBITDA margin	21%	17%		17%
	Net interest	-692	-663	-4%	-474	-46%
	Headline earnings	-15	-420	96%	-279	95%
	EBIT per division
	Zondereinde	427	190	125%	108	295%
	Booysendal	661	295	124%	231	187%
	EBIT	1,088	486	124%	340	220%
	Group EBIT margin	16%	12%		10%

Note: Priced at close 1 February 2019

Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Renaissance Capital estimates

Figure 58: Northam – forecasts vs previously reported numbers, ZARmn (unless otherwise stated)

	Jun-YE	1H19E	2H18	Movement	1H18	Movement
		forecasts	reported	HoH	reported	YoY
	Cash-flow statement
	Capex	1,022	1,226	-204	2,552	-1
	Balance sheet
	Net debt	12,543	12,263	279	10,518	2,025
	Working capital	2,333	2,432	-99	2,154	178
	Equity	7,371	7,387	-15	7,808	-437
	Key ratios
	RoE (annualised)	-0.4%	-11.1%		-7.0%
	Gearing*	63%	62%		57%
	Working capital days**	62	106	-44	117	-55

*Gearing defined as net debt/(net debt +equity)

**Working capital days is defined as (Working capital/revenue)*365/2

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

Renaissance Capital

6 February 2019

Metals & Mining

34

vk.com/id446425943

Royal Bafokeng Platinum (RBPlats) – FY18 results preview

Figure 59: RBPlats – forecasts vs previously reported results

	Dec-YE	2018E	2017	% change	2018E	RenCap vs
		forecasts	reported	YoY	consensus	Consensus
	Per share information, ZAc
	Headline earnings per share (HEPS)	21	56	-63%	31	-32%
	Income statement
	Revenue	3,505	3,499	0%
	Underlying EBITDA*	737	673	9%
	EBITDA margin	21%	19%
	Headline earnings	43	109	-61%
	Note: Priced at close 1 February 2019
	* Gross profit less depreciation and amortization
		Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Renaissance Capital estimates
	Figure 60: RBPlats – forecasts vs previously reported results
	Dec-YE	2018E	2017	Movement	1H18	Movement
		forecasts	reported	YoY	reported	HoH
	Cash-flow statement
	Capex (less on-reef development)	3,164	2,160	1,004	1,381	1,783
	Balance sheet
	Net debt (cash)	1,012	-401	1,413	732	281
	Working capital	-542	-106	-436	-440	-103
	Equity	11,086	10,679	407	10,831	254
	Key ratios
	RoE	0.4%	1.0%		-0.2%
	Gearing*	8.4%	-3.9%		6.3%
	Working capital days**	-56.5	-11.1	-45.4	-48.3	-8.1

*Gearing defined as net debt/(net debt +equity)

**Working capital days is defined as (Working capital/revenue)*365

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

Renaissance Capital

6 February 2019

Metals & Mining

35

vk.com/id446425943

Acron – FY18 results preview

Figure 61: Acron – forecasts vs previously reported results

	Dec-YE	2018E	2017	% change	2018E	RenCap vs
		forecasts	reported	YoY	consensus	Consensus
	Per share information, USc
	Earnings per share (EPS)	350	339	3%	394	-11%
	Income statement
	Revenue	109,410	94,342	16%
	EBITDA	38,228	29,817	28%
	EBITDA margin	35%	32%
	Group EBIT	28,936	21,860	32%
	EBIT margin	26%	23%
	Headline earnings	13,748	13,432	2%
	Note: Priced at close 1 February 2019
	* Gross profit less depreciation and amortization
		Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Renaissance Capital estimates
	Figure 62: Acron – forecasts vs previously reported results
	Dec-YE	2018E	2017	Movement	1H18	Movement
		forecasts	reported	YoY	reported	HoH
	Cash-flow statement
	Capex	14,531	11,299	3,232	6,201	8,330
	Balance sheet
	Net debt (cash)	74,636	60,221	14,415	71,123	3,513
	Working capital	19,115	13,937	5,178	9,771	9,344
	Equity	58,296	70,300	-12,004	52,092	6,204
	Key ratios
	RoE	21.4%	19.5%		10.4%
	Gearing*	56.1%	46.1%		57.7%
	Working capital days**	64	54	10	36	28

*Gearing defined as net debt/(net debt +equity)

**Working capital days is defined as (Working capital/revenue)*365

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

Renaissance Capital

6 February 2019

Metals & Mining

36

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PhosAgro – FY18 results preview

Figure 63: PhosAgro – forecasts vs previously reported results

	Dec-YE	2018E	2017	% change	2018E	RenCap vs
		forecasts	reported	YoY	consensus	Consensus
	Per share information, USc
	Earnings per GDR (EPS)	117	111	5%	156	-25%
	Income statement
	Revenue	237,431	181,351	31%
	EBITDA*	76,892	51,263	50%
	EBITDA margin	32%	28%
	EBIT	54,983	35,979	53%
	Headline earnings	28,734	25,333	13%
	Note: Priced at close 1 February 2019
	*Gross profit less depreciation and amortization
		Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Renaissance Capital estimates
	Figure 64: PhosAgro – forecasts vs previously reported results
	Dec-YE	2018E	2017	Movement	1H18	Movement
		forecasts	reported	YoY	reported	HoH
	Cash-flow statement
	Capex	35,089	35,918	-829	16,596	18,493
	Balance sheet
	Net debt (cash)	120,131	119,985	146	122,910	-2,779
	Working capital	41,505	37,324	4,181	40,909	596
	Equity	115,594	98,113	17,481	104,697	10,897
	Key ratios
	RoE	26.9%	27.2%		19.3%
	Gearing*	51.0%	55.0%		54.0%
	Working capital days**	64	75	-11	67	-3

*Gearing defined as net debt/(net debt +equity)

**Working capital days is defined as (Working capital/revenue)*365

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

Renaissance Capital

6 February 2019

Metals & Mining

37

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ArcelorMittal SA – FY18 results preview

Figure 65: ArcelorMittal SA – forecasts vs previously reported results, ZARmn (unless otherwise stated)

	Dec-YE	2018E	2017	% change	2018E	RenCap vs
		forecasts	reported	YoY	consensus	Consensus
	Per share information, ZAc
	Headline earnings /(loss) per share (HEPS)	57	-205	128%	70	-18%
	Income statement
	Revenue	44,259	39,022	13%
	EBITDA	3,178	-315	1109%
	EBITDA margin	7%	-1%
	EBIT	2,463	-1,220	302%
	EBIT margin	6%	-3%
	Headline earnings /(loss)	628	-2,671	124%
	RoE	9%	-33%
	EBITDA per division
	Steel products	2,896	-681	525%
	Coke and chemicals	481	365	32%
	Other	-199	1	-20027%
	EBITDA	3,178	-315	1109%
	Group EBITDA margin	7%	-1%

Note: Priced at close 1 February 2019

Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Renaissance Capital estimates

Figure 66: ArcelorMittal SA – forecasts vs previously reported results, ZARmn (unless otherwise stated)

	Dec-YE	2018E	2017	Movement	1H18	Movement
		forecasts	reported	YoY	reported	HoH
	Cash-flow statement
	Capex	1,242	1,324	-82	600	642
	Free cash flow	2,822	-2,902	5,724	-539
	Balance sheet
	Net debt (cash)	564	3,386	-2,822	-539	1,103
	Working capital	2,042	1,854	188	389	1,653
	Equity	7,291	8,058	-767	6,717	574
	Key ratios
	RoE	7%	30%		-23%
	Gearing*	8	9	-0	-20	29
	Working capital days**	1,242	1,324	-82	600	642

*Gearing defined as net debt/(net debt +equity)

**Working capital days is defined as (Working capital/revenue)*365

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

Renaissance Capital

6 February 2019

Metals & Mining

38

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Evraz – FY18 results preview

Figure 67: Evraz – forecasts vs previously reported results, $mn (unless otherwise stated)

	Dec-YE	2018E	2017	% change	2018E	RenCap vs
		forecasts	reported	YoY	consensus	Consensus
	Per share information, USc
	Basic EPS	158	53	198%	144	10%
	Final DPS	56	30	85%	40	40%
	Dividend per share	109	60	81%	93	17%
	Payout ratio	69%	113%		64%
	Dividend yield	19%	18%		16%
	Income statement
	Revenue	12,162	10,827	12%
	Underlying EBITDA	3,896	2,624	48%
	EBITDA margin	32%	24%
	Underlying EBIT	3,310	2,063	60%
	EBIT margin	27%	19%
	Attributable profit	2,278	699	226%
	ROE	101%	39%
	EBITDA per division
	Coal	1,543	1,226	26%
	Russian & CIS steel	2,468	1,483	66%
	North American steel	76	58	31%
	Other	-191	-143	-34%
	Total	3,896	2,624	48%
	Group EBITDA margin	32%	24%

Note: Priced at close 1 February 2019

Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Renaissance Capital estimates

Figure 68: Evraz – forecasts vs previously reported results, $mn (unless otherwise stated)

	Dec-YE	2018E	2017	Movement	1H18	Movement
		forecasts	reported	YoY	reported	HoH
	Cash flow statement
	Capex	629	595	34	232	397
	Dividends paid	1,419	430	989	617	802
	Tax paid	690	487	203	351	339
	Free cash flow	1,546	1,305	241	699	847
	Balance sheet
	Net debt	3,798	3,925	-127	3,828	-30
	Working capital	886	324	562	930	-44
	Equity	2,266	1,784	482	1,902	364
	Key ratios
	Annualised FCF yield	16%	28%		10%
	Gearing*	63%	69%		67%
	Working capital days**	27	11	16	28	-2

Note: Priced at market close 3 February 2019

*Gearing defined as net debt/(net debt +equity)

**Working capital days is defined as (Working capital/revenue)*365

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

Renaissance Capital

6 February 2019

Metals & Mining

39

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MMK – 4Q18 results preview

Figure 69: MMK – forecasts vs previously reported results, $mn (unless otherwise stated)

	Dec-YE	4Q18E	3Q18	% change	4Q17	% change
		forecasts	reported	QoQ	reported	YoY
	Per share information, $
	Basic EPS	0.37	0.47	-21%	0.43	-14%
	Dividend per share	0.39	0.42	-7%	0.24	60%
	Payout ratio	105%	90%		57%
	Dividend yield	17%	18%		10%
	Income statement
	Revenue	1,978	2,091	-5%	1,948	2%
	Underlying EBITDA	548	671	-18%	592	-7%
	EBITDA margin	28%	32%		30%
	Underlying EBIT	411	537	-24%	447	-8%
	EBIT margin	21%	26%		23%
	Net profit	319	400	-20%	373	-15%
	Annualised ROE	22%	28%		26%
	EBITDA per division
	Coal segment	58	43	35%	35	66%
	Russian steel	493	628	-22%	551	-11%
	Turkey steel	-2	0	-	14	-111%
	Other	-1	0	-	-8	84%
	Total	548	671	-18%	592	-7%
	Group EBITDA margin	28%	32%		30%

Note: Priced at close 1 February 2019

Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Renaissance Capital estimates

Figure 70: MMK – forecasts vs previously reported results, $mn (unless otherwise stated)

	Dec-YE	4Q18E	3Q18	Movement	4Q17	Movement
		forecasts	reported	QoQ	reported	YoY
	Cash flow statement
	Capex	172	162	10	237	-65
	Dividends paid	265	146	119	-9	274
	Tax paid	67	87	-20	126	-59
	Free cash flow	347	376	-29	-116	463
	Balance sheet
	Net debt	-391	-309	-82	-12	-379
	Working capital	1,094	1,129	-35	1,185	-91
	Equity	5,682	5,628	54	5,691	-9
	Key ratios
	Net debt/EBITDA	-0.2x	-0.1x		0.0x
	Annualised FCF yield	19%	19%		-5%
	Gearing*	-7%	-6%		0%
	Working capital days**	50	49	1	56	-5

* Gearing defined as net debt/(net debt +equity)

** Working capital days is defined as (Working capital/revenue)*365

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

Renaissance Capital

6 February 2019

Metals & Mining

40

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NLMK – FY18 results preview

Figure 71: NLMK – forecasts vs previously reported results, $mn (unless otherwise stated)

	Dec-YE	4Q18E	3Q18	% change	4Q17	% change
		forecasts	reported	QoQ	reported	YoY
	Per share information, $
	Underlying EPS	0.71	1.09	-35%	0.72	-2%
	Dividend per share	0.56	0.11	421%	0.72	-22%
	Payout ratio	80%	10%		100%
	Dividend yield	9%	2%		12%
	Income statement
	Revenue	2,886	3,127	-8%	2,815	3%
	Underlying EBITDA	689	1,015	-32%	786	-12%
	EBITDA margin	24%	32%		28%
	Underlying EBIT	537	879	-39%	615	-13%
	EBIT margin	19%	28%		22%
	Underlying earnings	423	654	-35%	432	-2%
	Annualised ROE	26%	39%		24%
	EBITDA per division
	Mining	273	211	30%	166	65%
	Flat	288	636	-55%	555	-48%
	Long	73	70	4%	52	40%
	USA	73	88	-17%	29	151%
	Dansteel	-3	1	-399%	-6	50%
	Intersegment and other	-49	36	-236%	16	-400%
	Total	655	1,042	-37%	812	-19%
	Group EBITDA margin	23%	33%		29%

Note: Priced at close 1 February 2019

Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Renaissance Capital estimates

Figure 72: NLMK – forecasts vs previously reported results, $mn (unless otherwise stated)

	Dec-YE	4Q18E	3Q18	Movement	4Q17	Movement
		forecasts	reported	QoQ	reported	YoY
	Cash flow statement
	Capex	220	183	37	277	-57
	Dividends paid	552	481	71	322	230
	Tax paid	104	190	-85	111	-7
	Free cash flow	237	592	-355	142	95
	Balance sheet
	Net debt	1,179	865	314	923	256
	Working capital	2,283	2,169	114	2,078	205
	Equity	6,534	6,662	-128	7,166	-632
	Key ratios
	Net debt/EBITDA	0.4x	0.2x		0.3x
	Annualised FCF yield	7%	16%		4%
	Gearing*	15%	11%		11%
	Working capital days**	70	67	3	75	-5

*Gearing defined as net debt/(net debt +equity)

**Working capital days is defined as (Working capital/revenue)*365

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

Renaissance Capital

6 February 2019

Metals & Mining

41