Арзуманян Р., Сложное мышление и сеть парадигма нелинейности и среда безопасности 21 века

ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȟȍȘȍȏ ȗȘȖȧȊȓȧȦȡȐȍșȧ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȔȍȎȌț ȕȐȔȐ. ǵȈȔ ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ ȗȖșȔȖȚȘȍȚȤ ȕȈ ȘȍȒȓȈȔȕțȦ ȌȍȧȚȍȓȤȕȖșȚȤ, ȚȖȘȋȖȊțȦ ȔȈȘȒț Ȑ ȓȖȋȖ ȒȖȔȗȈȕȐȐ, ȟȚȖȉȣ țȊȐȌȍȚȤ, ȒȈȒ ȚȍȋȐ șȗȖșȖȉșȚȊțȦȚ Ȑ ȕȈȗȘȈȊȓȧȦȚ ȚȘȈȕȏȈȒȞȐȐ. ǴȕȖȋȖȖȉȘȈȏȐȍ ȚȍȋȖȊ ȗȖȌȟȍȘȒȐȊȈȍȚ ȘȈȏȕȖȖȉȘȈȏȐȍ ȜȐȘȔ Ȑ ȈȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȐ ȋȖȘȖȌȈ, ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȖȔ ȟȍȋȖ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ șȓȖȎȕȣȑ ȗȖȚȖȒ ȚȖȊȈȘȖȊ ȕȈ ȊȝȖȌȍ/ȊȣȝȖȌȍ Ȑ ȊȕțȚȘȐ ȋȖȘȖȌȈ. ǺȖ, ȟȚȖ ǵȤȦ-DZȖȘȒ ȖșȚȈȍȚșȧ ȒȖȋȍȘȍȕȚȕȣȔ ȒȈȒ ȕȈ ȒȖȘȖȚȒȖȑ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȕȈ ȌȓȐȕȕȖȑ ȌȐșȚȈȕȞȐȧȝ, ȕȍșȔȖȚȘȧ ȕȈ ȘȈȏȕȖȖȉȘȈȏȐȍ, ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȍ Ȑ ȖȚșțȚșȚȊȐȍ ȞȍȕȚȘȈȓȐȏȖȊȈȕȕȖȋȖ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ, ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȚȐȗȐȟȕȖȑ ȏȈȋȈȌȒȖȑ, șȊȖȑșȚȊȍȕȕȖȑ ǹǨǹ, Ȋ ȞȍȕȚȘȍ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ ȕȈȝȖȌȐȚșȧ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȤ. ǵȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȤ ǵȤȦ-DZȖȘȒȈ ȋȓțȉȖȒȖ ȊșȚȘȖȍȕȈ ȊȖ ȊȕțȚȘȍȕȕȐȍ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ (ȊȕțȚȘȍȕȕȐȍ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ ȜȐȘȔ), țȗȘȈȊȓȧȦȡȐȝ ȚȘȈȕȏȈȒȞȐȧȔȐ. ǴȖȌȍȓȐ ȗȖȒȘȣȊȈȦȚ ȌȐȈȗȈȏȖȕ ȖȚ ȗȘȖșȚȖȑ ȚȈȉȓȐȞȣ ȌȖ ȒȖȘȗȖȘȈȚȐȊȕȣȝ ȗȓȈȕȖȊ. <…> ǷȘȖȍȞȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȚȘȍȕȌȖȊ Ȑ ȌȘțȋȐȍ ȊȐȌȣ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȋȖ ȈȕȈȓȐȏȈ ȔȈȓȖȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȣ Ȍȓȧ ȗȘȖȕȐȒȕȖȊȍȕȐȧ ȊȖ ȊȕțȚȘȍȕȕȦȦ ȒțȝȕȦ ȌȈȕȕȖȑ ȈȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȐ. ȇ ȗȖȌȖȏȘȍȊȈȦ, ȟȚȖ ȍșȓȐ Ȕȣ șȔȖȎȍȔ ȊșȒȘȣȚȤ șȚȘȖȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȍ ȉȓȖȒȐ, ȒȖȔȉȐȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ Ȑ ȘȍȒȖȔȉȐȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȍȚ ȊȕȍȠȕȐȑ ȖȉȓȐȒ ȋȖȘȖȌȈ, ȚȖ ȌȖșȚȐȋȕȍȔ ȕȖȊȖȋȖ ȊȖșȗȘȐȧȚȐȧ ȒȈȘȚȐȕȣ. Ǫ șȓțȟȈȍ ǵȤȦ-DZȖȘȒȈ șȚȘȖȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȍ ȉȓȖȒȐ ȕȍ ȚȈȒ ȖȟȍȊȐȌȕȣ, ȒȈȒ Ȍȓȧ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȌȘțȋȐȝ ǹǨǹ, Ȑ ș ȌȈȕȕȖȑ ȚȖȟȒȐ ȏȘȍȕȐȧ ȒȖȕȚȘȈȒȚȣ, șȚȘțȒȚțȘȕȈȧ șȝȍȔȈ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȑ, ȗȘȈȊȈ ȌȖșȚțȗȈ Ȑ ȗȖȓȕȖȔȖȟȐȧ, ȟȈșȚȐ ȋȖȘȖȌșȒȖȑ ȐȕȜȘȈșȚȘțȒȚțȘȣ Ȑ ȚȈȒșȐ ȖșȚȈȦȚșȧ ȊȗȖȓȕȍ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣȔȐ ȒȈȕȌȐȌȈȚȈȔȐ ȕȈ ȌȈȕȕțȦ ȘȖȓȤ»1.

2.2. ǰȋȘȖȊȖȍ ȗȖȓȍ Ȑ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȒȈ șȓȖȎȕȣȝ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ

ǶȗȐșȈȕȕȣȍ ȊȣȠȍ ȉȈȏȖȊȣȍ ȈȚȘȐȉțȚȣ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȚ ȗȖȓțȟȐȚȤ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȍȕȐȍ Ȗȉ «ȐȋȘȖȒȈȝ», Ȗ ȚȖȔ, ȒȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ ȜțȕȒȞȐȖȕȐȘțȍȚ șȓȖȎȕȈȧ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȈȧ șȐșȚȍȔȈ. ǶȌȕȈȒȖ ȊȖȏȕȐȒȈȍȚ ȊȖȗȘȖș Ȗȉ «ȐȋȘȖȊȖȔ ȗȖȓȍ», ȕȈ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȔ ȘȈȏȊȖȘȈȟȐȊȈȍȚșȧ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȒȈ ǹǨǹ.

DzȖȕȞȍȊȣȍ ȏȖȕȣ. ǹȖȋȓȈșȕȖ ȚȘȍȔ șȚȈȌȐȧȔ șȓȖȎȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ, ȕȈ «ȐȋȘȖȊȖȔ ȗȖȓȍ» ǹǨǹ ȔȖȎȕȖ ȊȣȌȍȓȐȚȤ ȌȊȍ ȒȖȕȞȍȊȣȍ ȏȖȕȣ – ȋȓțȉȖȒȖȋȖ ȘȈȊȕȖȊȍșȐȧ Ȑ ȝȈȖșȈ (ǸȐș. 2)2. Ǫ ȒȖȕȞȍȊȖȑ ȏȖȕȍ ȋȓțȉȖȒȖȋȖ ȘȈȊȕȖȊȍșȐȧ șȓȖȎȕȈȧ șȐșȚȍȔȈ ȌȖ ȚȈȒȖȑ șȚȍȗȍȕȐ șȚȈȉȐȓȤȕȈ Ȑ țȗȖȘȧȌȖȟȍȕȈ, ȟȚȖ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȚȤșȧ Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ

1 Ibid, pp. 41-42.

2 ǵȈ ȌȐȈȋȘȈȔȔȍ ȗȖȒȈȏȈȕȣ ȋȘȈȜȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣ ȐȚȍȘȈȚȐȊȕȖȋȖ ȟȐșȓȍȕȕȖȋȖ țȘȈȊȕȍȕȐȧ (logistic map) xn+ 1 = rxn (1-xn), ȐȓȐ ȉȐȜțȘȒȈȞȐȖȕȕȈȧ ȌȐȈȋȘȈȔȔȈ. Ǫ ȔȈȚȍȔȈȚȐȒȍ, Ȋ ȟȈșȚȕȖșȚȐ Ȋ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȟȍșȒȐȝ șȐșȚȍȔ, ȚȈȒȈȧ ȌȐȈȋȘȈȔȔȈ ȗȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣȍ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȧ șȐșȚȍȔȣ (șȚȈȉȐȓȤȕȣȍ Ȑ ȕȍșȚȈȉȐȓȤȕȣȍ) ȒȈȒ ȜțȕȒȞȐȦ ȉȐȜțȘȒȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȋȖ ȗȈȘȈȔȍȚȘȈ (r) (ȏȌȍșȤ ȗȖȒȈȏȈȕȣ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ șȚȈȉȐȓȤȕȣȍ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȧ). ǬȐȈȋȘȈȔȔȈ ȝȖȘȖȠȖ ȌȍȔȖȕșȚȘȐȘțȍȚ ȚȖȟȒȐ ȉȐȜțȘȒȈȞȐȐ, Ȋ ȒȈȎȌȖȑ Ȑȏ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȐȚ ȘȈȏȊȍȚȊȓȍȕȐȍ șȐșȚȍȔȕȖȑ ȚȘȈȍȒȚȖȘȐȐ. ǻȘȈȊȕȍȕȐȍ șȓțȎȐȚ ȧȘȒȐȔ ȗȘȐȔȍȘȖȔ ȚȖȋȖ, ȒȈȒ ȗȘȖșȚȖȍ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȍ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȟȍșȒȖȍ țȘȈȊȕȍȕȐȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚȤ Ȓ șȓȖȎȕȖȔț Ȑ ȝȈȖȚȐȟȕȖȔț ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȦ. ǻȘȈȊȕȍȕȐȍ Ȑ ȌȐȈȋȘȈȔȔȈ ȉȣȓȐ ȗȖȗțȓȧȘȐȏȖȊȈȕȣ ȉȐȖȓȖȋȖȔ ǸȖȉȍȘȚȖȔ ǴȍȍȔ (Robert May) Ȋ ȐȏȊȍșȚȕȖȑ ȘȈȉȖȚȍ 1976 ȋȖȌȈ, ȖȗȐșȣȊȈȦȡȍȑ ȌȍȔȖȋȘȈȜȐȟȍșȒțȦ ȔȖȌȍȓȤ ș ȌȐșȒȘȍȚȕȣȔ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȍȔ. May, Robert M.

“Simple mathematical models with very complicated dynamics,” Nature, Vol. 261, 10 June 1976, pp. 459-467.

61

ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȗȘȖșȚȖȑ ȐȓȐ țșȓȖȎȕȍȕȕȖȑ (ȔȍȝȈȕȐȟȍșȒȖȑ) șȐșȚȍȔȣ. Ǫ ȒȖȕȞȍȊȖȑ ȏȖȕȍ ȝȈȖșȈ șȐȚțȈȞȐȧ ȗȘȧȔȖ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȗȖȓȖȎȕȈȧ. ǵȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȈȧ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȒȈ Ȑ ȚțȘȉțȓȍȕȚȕȖșȚȤ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȌȖșȚȐȋȈȦȚ ȚȈȒȐȝ ȏȕȈȟȍȕȐȑ, ȟȚȖ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȕȐȍ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ ȖȚȌȍȓȤȕȣȝ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȖȊ Ȑ șȚȘțȒȚțȘ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣȔ. ȅȚȖ șȚȖȝȈșȚȐȟȍșȒȈȧ (ȚȍȘȔȖȌȐȕȈȔȐȟȍșȒȈȧ) Ȑ ȌȈȎȍ șȓțȟȈȑȕȈȧ șȐșȚȍȔȈ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ Ȋ ȓțȟȠȍȔ șȓțȟȈȍ ȗȖȌȟȐȕȧȍȚșȧ șȚȈȚȐșȚȐȟȍșȒȐȔ ȏȈȒȖȕȈȔ.

										ǸȐș. 2
	ǰȋȘȖȊȖȍ ȗȖȓȍ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ
ǺȐȗ	dzȐȕȍȑȕȣȑ		ǵȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȑ
ǸȍȎȐȔ	ǸȈȊȕȖȊȍșȐȍ		ǹȓȖȎȕȖșȚȤ							ǽȈȖș
	ǹȚȈȉȐȓȤȕȣȑ:	ȅȔȍȘȋȍȕȚȕȣȑ:					ǺțȘȉțȓȍȕȚȕȣȑ:
ǽȈȘȈȒȚȍȘ	ȈȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȤ ȋȈșȕȍȚ;	ȘȈȊȕȖȊȍșȕȖȍ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȍ ȈȌȈȗȚȈȞȐȐ					ȊȖȏȔțȡȍȕȐȧ ȘȈș-
	ȊȖȏȔțȡȍȕȐȧ ȓȖȒȈȓȤȕȣ.	Ȑ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȧ; ȊȖȏȔțȡȍȕȐȧ					ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕȧȦȚșȧ;
		ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȣ.					ȘȈȏȘțȠȍȕȐȍ.
			«DzȘȖȔȒȈ
ǩȐȜțȘȒȈȞȐȖȕȕȣȑ			ȘȈȊȕȖȊȍșȐȧ»
ȗȈȚȚȍȘȕ
										«DzȘȖȔȒȈ
										ȝȈȖșȈ»

ǺȖȟȒȐ	1	2	3 4
ȉȐȜțȘȒȈȞȐȐ
ǶȊȓȈȌȍȚȤ
ȋȘȈȕȐȞȈȔȐ		ǿȍȓȕȖȒ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ

ǰȋȘȖȊȖȍ ȗȖȓȍ. ǻȟȈșȚȖȒ ȐȋȘȖȊȖȋȖ ȗȖȓȧ ǹǨǹ, ȕȈ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȔ șȐșȚȍȔȈ ȌȍȔȖȕșȚȘȐȘțȍȚ șȓȖȎȕȖȍ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ (ȘȍȋȐȖȕ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ), ȘȈșȗȖȓȈȋȈȍȚșȧ ȔȍȎȌț ȌȊțȔȧ ȒȖȕȞȍȊȣȔȐ ȏȖȕȈȔȐ Ȑ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȍȚ șȖȉȖȑ «ȘȈȏȕȖȊȐȌȕȖșȚȤ “ȜȈȏȖȊȖȋȖ ȗȍȘȍȝȖȌȈ” ȔȍȎȌț ȗȖȘȧȌȒȖȔ Ȑ ȝȈȖșȖȔ. ǪȖȌȈ, ȏȈȔȖȘȖȎȍȕȕȈȧ ȌȖ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȧ ȗȘȖșȚȖȑ ȘȍȠȍȚȒȐ ȔȖȓȍȒțȓ, ȕȍ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȖȟȍȕȤ șȓȖȎȕȖȑ. ǺȖ Ȏȍ șȈȔȖȍ șȗȘȈȊȍȌȓȐȊȖ Ȑ Ȍȓȧ ȗȈȘȈ, Ȋ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȔ ȔȖȓȍȒțȓȣ ȊȐȉȘȐȘțȦȚ șȓțȟȈȑȕȣȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ. ǵȖ ȔȍȎȌț ȌȊțȔȧ ȌȈȕȕȣȔȐ ȒȘȈȑȕȐȔȐ

62

ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȧȔȐ ȕȈȝȖȌȐȚșȧ ȊȖȌȈ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȌȊȐȋȈȚȤșȧ Ȋ ȏȈȊȖȘȈȎȐȊȈȦȡȍ șȓȖȎȕȣȝ ȗȈȚȚȍȘȕȈȝ»1. ǰȋȘȖȊȖȍ ȗȖȓȍ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȔȈȘȒȐȘțȍȚșȧ ȚȖȟȒȈȔȐ ȉȐȜțȘȒȈȞȐȐ (ȐȓȐ «ȚȖȟȒȈȔȐ ȌȍȓȍȕȐȧ ȕȈ ȌȊȈ») – ȟȈȡȍ ȊșȍȋȖ ȖȚ 1 ȌȖ 4, Ȋ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȐȚ ȘȈȏȊȍȚȊȓȍȕȐȍ șȐșȚȍȔȕȖȑ ȚȘȈȍȒȚȖȘȐȐ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ț șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȗȖȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȤ ȊȣȉȖȘȈ ȔȍȎȌț ȌȊțȔȧ ȈȓȤȚȍȘȕȈȚȐȊȕȣȔȐ ȔȈȘȠȘțȚȈȔȐ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȧ (ȌȊȐȎȍȕȐȧ), ȚȖ ȍșȚȤ ȌȊțȔȧ șȞȍȕȈȘȐȧȔȐ șȊȖȍȋȖ ȉțȌțȡȍȋȖ. ǷȍȘȊȈȧ ȚȖȟȒȈ ȉȐȜțȘȒȈȞȐȐ, Ȋ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ ȋȍȕȍȘȐȘțȦȚșȧ ȌȊȍ ȈȓȤȚȍȘȕȈȚȐȊȣ, ȕȈȝȖȌȐȚșȧ ȕȈ ȋȘȈȕȐȞȍ ȔȍȎȌț ȏȖȕȈȔȐ ȋȓțȉȖȒȖȋȖ ȘȈȊȕȖȊȍșȐȧ Ȑ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ – ȥȚȖ ȒȘȈȑ țșȚȖȑȟȐȊȖȋȖ ȘȈȊȕȖȊȍșȐȧ. ǯȈȚȍȔ ȐȌȍȚ ȊȚȖȘȈȧ ȚȖȟȒȈ ȉȐȜțȘȒȈȞȐȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ ȋȍȕȍȘȐȘțȍȚ țȎȍ ȟȍȚȣȘȍ ȈȓȤȚȍȘȕȈȚȐȊȣ, ȏȈȚȍȔ ȚȘȍȚȤȧ ș ȊȖșȍȔȤȦ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣȔȐ șȞȍȕȈȘȐȧȔȐ ȉțȌțȡȍȋȖ, ȈȓȤȚȍȘȕȈȚȐȊȈȔȐ Ȑ șȐșȚȍȔȕȣȔȐ ȚȘȈȍȒȚȖȘȐȧȔȐ.

ǹțȡȍșȚȊțȍȚ ȏȈȒȖȕȖȔȍȘȕȖșȚȤ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚ Ȗ ȚȖȔ, ȟȚȖ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȐȧ Ȋ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȈȝ, ȊȒȓȦȟȈȧ Ȑ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȍ Ȑȝ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘȐșȚȐȒȐ, ȘȈȏȊȖȘȈȟȐȊȈȦȡȐȍșȧ ȔȍȎȌț ȊȚȖȘȖȑ Ȑ ȚȘȍȚȤȍȑ ȚȖȟȒȈȔȐ ȉȐȜțȘȒȈȞȐȐ, șȖșȚȈȊȓȧȦȚ 22% ȘȈȏȓȐȟȐȑ ȖȚ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘȐșȚȐȒ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȖȊ, ȗȘȖȚȍȒȈȦȡȐȝ ȔȍȎȌț ȗȍȘȊȖȑ Ȑ ȊȚȖȘȖȑ ȚȖȟȒȈȔȐ. ǬȘțȋȐȔȐ șȓȖȊȈȔȐ, ȖȚ ȚȖȟȒȐ Ȓ ȚȖȟȒȍ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ Ȋșȍ șȓȖȎȕȍȍ ȗȘȖȊȖȌȐȚȤ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȐȍ Ȑ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȈȚȤ ȈȓȤȚȍȘȕȈȚȐȊȣ. ȅȚȖ ȏȈȚȘțȌȕȧȍȚ ȖșȖȏȕȈȕȕȣȑ ȊȣȉȖȘ ȔȍȎȌț ȚȘȈȍȒȚȖȘȐȧȔȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ șȚȈȕȖȊȧȚșȧ Ȋșȍ ȉȖȓȍȍ Ȑ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȕȍȘȈȏȓȐȟȐȔȣȔȐ, ȕȖ, ȚȍȔ ȕȍ Ȕȍȕȍȍ, ȖșȚȈȦȚșȧ ȘȈȏȕȣȔȐ. ǬȘțȋȖȑ ȗȘȐȕȞȐȗ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚ Ȗȉ țșȒȖȘȍȕȐȐ ȗȖȧȊȓȍȕȐȧ ȚȖȟȍȒ ȉȐȜțȘȒȈȞȐȐ. DzȈȎȌȈȧ ȖȟȍȘȍȌȕȈȧ ȚȖȟȒȈ ȉȐȜțȘȒȈȞȐȐ ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȐȚ Ȋ ȐȕȚȍȘȊȈȓȍ ȕȈ 22% ȉȖȓȍȍ ȒȖȘȖȚȒȖȔ, ȕȍȎȍȓȐ ȗȘȍȌȠȍșȚȊțȦȡȈȧ, ȟȚȖ șȖȏȌȈȍȚ ȥȜȜȍȒȚ șȎȐȔȈȕȐȧ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ. ǪȘȍȔȧ ȗȘȐ ȗȘȖȌȊȐȎȍȕȐȐ ȖȚ ȗȍȘȊȖȑ ȚȖȟȒȐ ȉȐȜțȘȒȈȞȐȐ Ȓ ȗȖșȓȍȌțȦȡȐȔ Ȋșȍ ȉȖȓȍȍ Ȑ ȉȖȓȍȍ șȎȐȔȈȍȚșȧ, Ȑ, ȕȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ, ȗȘȐȝȖȌ Ȓ ȟȍȚȊȍȘȚȖȑ ȚȖȟȒȍ, ȕȈȝȖȌȧȡȍȑșȧ ȕȈ «ȒȘȖȔȒȍ ȝȈȖșȈ» ȕȈșȚțȗȈȍȚ ȏȈ 5% ȖȚ ȚȖȋȖ ȗȘȖȔȍȎțȚȒȈ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ ȘȈȏȌȍȓȧȍȚ ȗȍȘȊțȦ ȚȖȟȒț ȖȚ ȊȚȖȘȖȑ. ǺȍȔ șȈȔȣȔ șȒȓȈȌȣȊȈȍȚșȧ șȐȚțȈȞȐȧ ȕȈȘȈșȚȈȕȐȧ ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȈ Ȋșȍ ȉȖȓȍȍ Ȑ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȗȖȝȖȎȐȝ ȌȘțȋ ȕȈ ȌȘțȋȈ ȈȓȤȚȍȘȕȈȚȐȊ Ȑ șȞȍȕȈȘȐȍȊ – Ȋ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȍȔȖȔ șȓțȟȈȍ ȥȚȖ ȠȍșȚȕȈȌȞȈȚȤ Ȋ ȟȍȚȊȍȘȚȖȑ ȚȖȟȒȍ, ȖȚȕȖșȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ ȌȊțȝ Ȋ ȗȍȘȊȖȑ, Ȑ Ȋșȍ șȎȐȔȈȦȡȍȍșȧ ȊȘȍȔȧ, Ȋ ȚȍȟȍȕȐȍ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȋȖ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖ ȖȞȍȕȐȚȤ ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȧȡȍȍ Ȑ ȖșțȡȍșȚȊȐȚȤ ȊȣȉȖȘ. Ǫ ȟȍȚȊȍȘȚȖȑ ȚȖȟȒȍ ȉȐȜțȘȒȈȞȐȐ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ ȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȚȤșȧ Ȋ 20 ȘȈȏ ȉȣșȚȘȍȍ, ȕȍȎȍȓȐ Ȋ ȗȍȘȊȖȑ. ǭșȓȐ ȗȘȖȌȖȓȎȐȚȤ ȌȈȕȕȣȑ ȗȘȖȞȍșș Ȑ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȚȤ ȗȧȚțȦ ȚȖȟȒț ȉȐȜțȘȒȈȞȐȐ, ȚȖ ȍȍ 32 ȈȓȤȚȍȘȕȈȚȐȊȣ ȉțȌțȚ ȐȔȍȚȤ ȔȍșȚȖ Ȋ 1/100 ȟȈșȚȐ ȖȚ ȗȘȖȔȍȎțȚȒȈ ȔȍȎȌț ȗȍȘȊȖȑ Ȑ ȊȚȖȘȖȑ Ȑ Ț.Ȍ. ǶȌȕȈȒȖ ȗȧȚȈȧ ȚȖȟȒȈ ȉȐȜțȘȒȈȞȐȐ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ȏȈ «ȒȘȖȔȒȖȑ ȝȈȖșȈ», ȋȌȍ ȚțȘȉțȓȍȕȚȕȖșȚȤ ȌȖșȚȐȋȈȍȚ ȚȈȒȖȋȖ țȘȖȊȕȧ, ȟȚȖ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚȤ Ȗȉ țȗȘȈȊȓȧȍȔȖșȚȐ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ șȓȖȎȕȖ ȐȌȈȎȍ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ. ǪșȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔȈȝ ș ȗȘȖȞȍșșȈȔȐ, ȕȈȝȖȌȧȡȐȔȐșȧ ȏȈ «ȒȘȖȔȒȖȑ ȝȈȖșȈ», Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ șȗȘȈȊȐȚȤșȧ țȎȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȋȍȕȐȈȓȤȕȣȍ țȔȣ. ǵȍșȔȖȚȘȧ ȕȈ ȚȖ, ȟȚȖ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȍȔȣȑ ȝȈȖș ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȌȍȚȍȘȔȐȕȐșȚșȒȐȔ, Ȑ Ȋ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȗȖ-ȗȘȍȎȕȍȔț ȓȍȎȈȚ Țȍ ȐȓȐ Ȑȕȣȍ ȗȈȚȚȍȘȕȣ, ȚțȘȉțȓȍȕȚȕȖșȚȤ ȏȈȚȔȍȊȈȍȚ Ȋșȍ, Ȑ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȣ Ȍȓȧ ȖȉȣȌȍȕȕȖȋȖ șȖȏȕȈȕȐȧ ȊȣȋȓȧȌȧȚȒȈȒ ȉȍșșȔȣșȓȍȕȕȈȧ șȓțȟȈȑȕȖșȚȤ.

1 Johnson, George. “Researchers on Complexity Ponder What It’s All About,” New York Times, May 6, 1997, p. C7.

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ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

2.3 ǰȋȘȈ Ȑ ȟȍȓȕȖȒ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ

ǹȔȣșȓ «ȐȋȘȣ» șȊȖȌȐȚșȧ Ȓ ȚȖȔț, ȟȚȖȉȣ ȖȉȝȖȌȐȚȤ ȒȖȕȞȍȊȣȍ ȏȖȕȣ ȋȓțȉȖȒȖȋȖ ȘȈȊȕȖȊȍșȐȧ Ȑ ȝȈȖșȈ, ȗȘȐȌȍȘȎȐȊȈȧșȤ ȗȘȈȒȚȐȒȐ ȟȍȓȕȖȟȕȖȋȖ ȌȊȐȎȍȕȐȧ ȊȗȍȘȍȌ ȕȈȏȈȌ ȊȕțȚȘȐ ȋȘȈȕȐȞ ȘȍȋȐȖȕȈ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ (ǸȐș. 2). ǹȚȍȕȜȖȘȌșȒȐȑ ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐșȚ ǨȘȚțȘ ǩȘȈȑȍȕ (Arthur Brian) ȌȈȍȚ ȗȘȐȔȍȘȣ ȟȍȓȕȖȒȈ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ Ȋ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȟȍșȒȐȝ ȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȧȝ. «ǵȖ, ȐȕȚȍȘȍșȕȖ, ȌȈȎȍ ȒȖȋȌȈ șȐșȚȍȔȈ, ȋȘȖȔȣȝȈȧ, ȒȈȚȐȚșȧ ȊȕȐȏ, Ȋșȍ ȉȖȓȍȍ țșȓȖȎȕȧȧșȤ, ȐȔȍȍȚșȧ ȕȈȌȍȎȌȈ. ǸȈȕȖ ȐȓȐ ȗȖȏȌȕȖ ȗȖȧȊȐȚșȧ ȕȖȊȈȧ țȗȘȖȡȈȦȡȈȧ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȧ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ șȘȍȎȍȚ ȗȖȌ ȒȖȘȍȕȤ ȐȌȍȦ, ȓȍȎȈȡțȦ Ȋ ȖșȕȖȊȈȕȐȐ șȚȈȘȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȣ, Ȑ ȏȈȔȍȕȐȚ ȍȍ. ǶșȓȍȗȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ ȗȘȖșȚȈȧ ȈșȚȘȖȕȖȔȐȟȍșȒȈȧ șȐșȚȍȔȈ DzȖȗȍȘȕȐȒȈ, ȉȈȏȐȘțȦȡȈȧșȧ ȕȈ ȋȍȓȐȖȞȍȕȚȘȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ ǪșȍȓȍȕȕȖȑ, ȏȈȔȍȕȐȓȈ ȉȍȏȕȈȌȍȎȕȖ șȓȖȎȕțȦȗȚȖȓȍȔȍȍȊșȒțȦ șȐșȚȍȔț. <…> ǪȖȚ Ȋ ȚȈȒȖȔ ȔȍȌȓȍȕȕȖȔ ȚȈȕȞȍ ȕȈȏȈȌ Ȑ ȊȗȍȘȍȌ ȏȈ ȘȈșȚțȡȍȑ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȤȦ ȟȈșȚȖ șȓȍȌțȍȚ ȖȉȕȖȊȓȧȦȡȈȧ ȗȘȖșȚȖȚȈ, ȝȖȚȧ șȖ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȍȔ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȖȔ țșȓȖȎȕȍȕȐȧ ȖȉȣȟȕȖșȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȍȒȘȖȔȒȐ»1.

ǬȖ ȗȖȧȊȓȍȕȐȧ ȕȈțȒȐ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ Ȑ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ ǹǨǹ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ ȟȍȓȕȖȒȈ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȉȣȓȖ ȊȖ ȔȕȖȋȖȔ ȐȕȚțȐȚȐȊȕȣȔ, ȟȚȖ ȏȈȟȈșȚțȦ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȓȖ Ȓ ȖȠȐȉȒȈȔ Ȑ ȕȍȖȗȘȈȊȌȈȕȕȖȑ ȚȘȈȚȍ ȘȍșțȘșȖȊ. ǸȈȏȊȐȚȐȍ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ ǹǨǹ, ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȐȚ «ȖȊȓȈȌȍȚȤ ȋȘȈȕȐȞȈȔȐ» ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ șȓȖȎȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ, ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖ țȓțȟȠȐȊ ȗȘȖȞȍșș țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ. ǺȍȖȘȐȧ ǹǨǹ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚ Ȗ ȚȖȔ, ȟȚȖ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȍ Ȑ ȈȌȈȗȚȈȞȐȧ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȐȚ ȕȈȐȉȖȓȍȍ țșȗȍȠȕȖ Ȋ ȖȒȘȍșȚȕȖșȚȐ ȟȍȚȊȍȘȚȖȑ ȚȖȟȒȐ ȉȐȜțȘȒȈȞȐȐ, ȕȈ «ȒȘȖȔȒȍ ȝȈȖșȈ», ȒȖȋȌȈ ȗȖȌ ȌȈȊȓȍȕȐȍȔ ȕȈȘȈșȚȈȦȡȍȑ ȚțȘȉțȓȍȕȚȕȖșȚȐ șȘȍȌȣ țșȒȖȘȧȦȚșȧ șȐșȚȍȔȕȣȍ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȣ. ǹ ȖȌȕȖȑ șȚȖȘȖȕȣ, ȍșȓȐ șȐșȚȍȔȈ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ȕȍ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ șȜȖȘȔȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȖȚȒȓȐȒ, ȖȕȈ șȊȈȓȐȊȈȍȚșȧ ȏȈ «ȒȘȖȔȒț ȝȈȖșȈ», ș ȌȘțȋȖȑ – ȜțȕȒȞȐȖȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȕȈ ȗȘȍȌȍȓȍ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȍȑ, ȉȈȓȈȕșȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȕȈ ȒȘȖȔȒȍ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȍȚ șȐșȚȍȔȍ ȉȣȚȤ ȔȈȒșȐȔȈȓȤȕȖ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȖȑ.

DzȖȋȌȈ ȖȚȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚ ȟȍȓȕȖȒ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ. ǷȈȌȍȕȐȍ Ȋ ȝȈȖș ȖȏȕȈȟȈȍȚ ȗȖȗȈȌȈȕȐȍ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȍ «ȗȘȍȘȣȊȐșȚȖȋȖ ȘȈȊȕȖȊȍșȐȧ» (punctuated equilibrium)2, ȒȖȚȖȘȖȍ ȐȕȐȞȐȐȘțȍȚșȧ șȈȔȖȖȘȋȈȕȐȏțȦȡȍȑșȧ ȒȘȐȚȐȟȕȖșȚȤȦ (ǹǶDz) (self-organizing criticality (SOC)) – ȗȖȕȧȚȐȍ, ȊȊȍȌȍȕȕȖȍ ǰȓȤȍȑ ǷȘȐȋȖȎȐȕȣȔ Ȑ ǷȍȘȖȔ ǩȈȒȖȔ (Per Bak)3. «ǩȖȓȤȠȐȍ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊțȦȡȐȍ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȕȍȗȘȍȘȣȊȕȖ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏțȦȚ șȍȉȧ ȒȒȘȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȔț șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȦ, Ȋ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȔ ȔȈȓȖȍ șȖȉȣȚȐȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȊȣȏȊȈȚȤ ȞȍȗȕțȦ ȘȍȈȒȞȐȦ, ȊȍȌțȡțȦ Ȓ ȒȈȚȈșȚȘȖȜȍ <…> ȗȘȐȔȍȘȖȔ ȖȉȔȈȕȟȐȊȖ ȗȘȖșȚȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȣ, ȖȗȐȘȈȦȡȍȑșȧ Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȣ ȕȈ ǹǶDz, ȔȖȎȍȚ șȓțȎȐȚȤ ȒțȟȈ ȗȍșȒȈ»4. ǽȖȚȧ șȐșȚȍȔȈ ȕȍ ȊșȍȋȌȈ

1 Arthur, Brian. “Why Do Things Become More Complex?” Scientific American, Vol. 268, No. 5, May 1993, p. 144.

2 ȅȊȖȓȦȞȐȖȕȕȈȧ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȧ, Ȋ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ ȓȍȎȐȚ ȗȖșȚțȓȈȚ Ȗ ȟȍȘȍȌȖȊȈȕȐȐ ȥȚȈȗȖȊ ȉțȘȕȖȋȖ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȧ ȜȖȘȔ Ȑ ȗȘȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐ ȗȖȓȕȖȋȖ ȒȖȕșȍȘȊȈȚȐȏȔȈ (ȗȘȐ ȖȚșțȚșȚȊȐȐ ȗȓȈȊȕȣȝ ȗȍȘȍȝȖȌȖȊ ȔȍȎȌț ȥȚȈȗȈȔȐ), ȗȘȍȌȓȖȎȍȕȕȈȧ ǹȚȍȜȍȕȖȔ ǫȖțȓȌȖȔ (Gould Stephen) Ȑ ǵȈȑȓșȖȔ ȅȓȌȘȐȌȎȍȔ (Niles Eldredge) Ȋ 1972. (ǹȔ. Gould Stephen Jay and Niles Eldredge, “Punctuated equilibria: the tempo and mode of evolution reconsidered,” Paleobiology 1977, Vol. III, No. 2, pp. 115-151).

3 Prigogine, Ilya and Isabelle Stengers. Order out of Chaos. New York: Bantam Books, 1984; Bak, Per. How Nature Works: The Science of Self-Organized Criticality.

4 Bak, Per and Kan Chen. “Self-Organized Criticality,” Scientific American, Vol. 264, No. 1, January, 1991, pp. 46-53; p. 46. 12 January 2011. http://www.jstor.org/pss/2117870.

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ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȗȘȍȘȣȊȐșȚȖȋȖ ȘȈȊȕȖȊȍșȐȧ, ȚȍȔ ȕȍ Ȕȍȕȍȍ ȔȍȝȈȕȐȏȔȣ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȧȚ șȐșȚȍȔț Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȍ ǹǶDz, ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȚȍȔȐ Ȏȍ, ȟȚȖ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȦȚ ȗȍȘȍȝȖȌ șȐșȚȍȔȣ Ȋ ȌȘțȋȐȍ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȧ, ȚȖ ȍșȚȤ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȒȈ ȒȈȒ ȔȈȓȣȝ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȝ șȖȉȣȚȐȑ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȍȚșȧ ȖȌȕȐȔȐ Ȑ ȚȍȔȐ Ȏȍ ȏȈȒȖȕȈȔȐ șȐșȚȍȔȕȖȋȖ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȧ. ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, ǹǨǹ ȕȐȒȖȋȌȈ ȕȍ «ȏȈȔȐȘȈȍȚ», ȌȖșȚȐȋȈȧ ȗȖȓȕȖȋȖ ȘȈȊȕȖȊȍșȐȧ, ȕȖ ȌȊȐȋȈȍȚșȧ ȖȚ ȖȌȕȖȋȖ ȔȍȚȈșȚȈȉȐȓȤȕȖȋȖ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȧ Ȓ ȌȘțȋȖȔț, ȗȘȐȟȍȔ ȊșȍȋȌȈ șȖȝȘȈȕȧȍȚșȧ ȊȍȘȖȧȚȕȖșȚȤ ȚȖȋȖ, ȟȚȖ șȐșȚȍȔȈ Ȋ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȍ ȗȍȘȍȝȖȌȈ ȖȒȈȎȍȚșȧ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ǹǶDz, ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȖȔ ȟȍȋȖ ȔȖȎȍȚ șȚȈȚȤ ȒȈȒ ȘȈȏȘțȠȍȕȐȍ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȍȍ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȖȊ ȐȓȐ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȊȞȍȓȖȔ, ȚȈȒ ȐȗȍȘȍȝȖȌ ȊȌȘțȋȖȍȔȍȚȈșȚȈȉȐȓȤȕȖȍ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȍ.

ǵȈ ȔȐȒȘȖțȘȖȊȕȍ ȖȠȐȉȒȈ Ȋ ȘȈȉȖȚȍ ȟȍȓȕȖȒȈ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȖȏȕȈȟȈȍȚ ȊȣȗȈȌȍȕȐȍ ǹǨǹ Ȑȏ ȘȍȋȐȖȕȈ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ Ȋ ȏȖȕȣ ȝȈȖșȈ ȐȓȐ ȋȓțȉȖȒȖȋȖ ȘȈȊȕȖȊȍșȐȧ. ȅȚȖ ȔȖȎȍȚ șȚȈȚȤ șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍȔ ȕȍșȗȖșȖȉȕȖșȚȐ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȘȍȈȋȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȌȖȓȎȕȣȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ ȕȈ ȊȖȏȔțȡȍȕȐȧ șȘȍȌȣ, ȊȣȉȖȘ ȘȐșȒȖȊȈȕȕȣȝ ȐȓȐ ȖȠȐȉȖȟȕȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ. ǭșȓȐ ǹǨǹ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ȏȈ «ȒȘȖȔȒȖȑ ȝȈȖșȈ», ȚȖ ȊȖȏȊȘȈȚ Ȋ ȘȍȋȐȖȕ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȉȍȏ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ ȊȕȍȠȕȐȝ ȘȍȋțȓȧȚȖȘȖȊ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȚȘțȌȕȣȔ Ȑ ȖȗȈșȕȣȔ. ǯȖȕȈ ȋȓțȉȖȒȖȋȖ ȘȈȊȕȖȊȍșȐȧ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȍȚ țȋȘȖȏț, ȚȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȗȖȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȣȑ ȘȈȏȘȣȊ ȔȍȎȌț ȊȕțȚȘȍȕȕȍȑ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȒȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȣ Ȑ șȒȖȘȖșȚȤȦ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȖȊ Ȋ șȘȍȌȍ. ǭșȓȐ ȕȈ «ȒȘȖȔȒȍ ȝȈȖșȈ» țȋȘȖȏȖȑ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȚțȘȉțȓȍȕȚȕȖșȚȤ Ȑ ȟȍȘȍșȟțȘ ȉȖȓȤȠȖȑ ȘȐȚȔ Ȑ ȘȈȏȔȈȝ ȊȖȏȔțȡȍȕȐȑ șȘȍȌȣ, Ȋ ȏȖȕȍ ȋȓțȉȖȒȖȋȖ ȘȈȊȕȖȊȍșȐȧ țȋȘȖȏȈ ȒȘȖȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȟȍȘȍșȟțȘ ȔȍȌȓȍȕȕȖȑ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȒȍ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȖȊ, «țȉȈȦȒȐȊȈȦȡȐȝ» șȐșȚȍȔț, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȖȕȈ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ȕȍ ȋȖȚȖȊȈ Ȓ ȕȍȖȎȐȌȈȕȕȣȔ ȊȖȏȔțȡȍȕȐȧȔ, ȊȣȕțȎȌȈȦȡȐȔ ȍȍ ȌȊȐȋȈȚȤșȧ Ȋ ȌȘțȋȖȔ ȚȍȔȗȍ. ǹǨǹ ȕȍ țșȗȍȊȈȍȚ ȗȍȘȍșȚȘȖȐȚȤșȧ Ȑ ȈȌȍȒȊȈȚȕȖ șȘȍȈȋȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȕȈ ȊȖȏȔțȡȍȕȐȧ, ȝȖȚȧ ȗȖȚȍȕȞȐȈȓȤȕȖ ȔȖȋȓȈ ȉȣ șȌȍȓȈȚȤ ȥȚȖ, ȍșȓȐ ȉȣȓȈ ȉȣ «Ȋ ȜȖȘȔȍ», ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ ȉȣȓȈ ȗȖȚȍȘȧȕȈ Ȋ ȏȖȕȍ ȋȓțȉȖȒȖ ȘȈȊȕȖȊȍșȐȧ. ǷȘȐȔȍȘȖȔ ǹǨǹ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȋȓțȉȖȒȖ ȘȈȊȕȖȊȍșȐȧ ȔȖȎȍȚ șȓțȎȐȚȤ ǹǹǹǸ Ȋ «ȋȖȌȣ ȏȈșȚȖȧ».

ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, ȚȍȖȘȐȧ ǹǨǹ ȗȣȚȈȍȚșȧ ȖȗȐșȈȚȤ Ȋșȍ ȈșȗȍȒȚȣ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ șȓȖȎȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ ȕȈ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȍȌȐȕȖȑ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȣ, ȖȉȢȧșȕȧȧ Ȑ ȐȕȚȍȘȗȘȍȚȐȘțȧ ȒȈȒ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȧ ȋȓțȉȖȒȖȋȖ ȘȈȊȕȖȊȍșȐȧ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȝȈȖșȈ. «Ǫ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȟȍșȒȐȝ Ȑ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔȈȝ ȒȈȒ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȈȧ țȗȖȘȧȌȖȟȍȕȕȖșȚȤ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȝȈȖș ȗȍȘȍȗȓȍȚȈȦȚșȧ Ȋ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȖȑ șȚȍȗȍȕȐ Ȑ ȟȍȘȍȌțȦȚșȧ ȕȈ ȗȘȖȚȧȎȍȕȐȐ ȐșȚȖȘȐȐ ȎȐȏȕȐ șȐșȚȍȔȣ. ǷȍȘȐȖȌȣ ȖȚȕȖșȐȚȍȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȗȖȘȧȌȒȈ șȔȍȕȧȦȚșȧ ȗȍȘȐȖȌȖȔ ȝȈȖșȈ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ, Ȋ șȊȖȦ ȖȟȍȘȍȌȤ, ȊȍȌȍȚ Ȓ ȕȖȊȖȔț ȗȖȘȧȌȒț. ǷȍȘȐȖȌ ȋȓțȉȖȒȖȋȖ ȝȈȖșȈ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȕȖȘȔȈȓȤȕȖȑ Ȑ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖȑ ȟȈșȚȤȦ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȧ ȓȦȉȖȑ ȎȐȊȖȑ ȐȓȐ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȣ. ǶȕȈ ȗȘȐȝȖȌȐȚ Ȋ ȚȖȟȒț ȉȐȜțȘȒȈȞȐȐ Ȑ ȗȘȍȘȣȊȐșȚȣȝ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȑ. ǻșȓȖȊȐȧ, ȧȊȓȧȦȡȐȍșȧ ȗȓȖȌȖȚȊȖȘȕȖȑ ȗȖȟȊȖȑ Ȍȓȧ șȖȏȌȈȕȐȧ ȕȖȊȖȋȖ ȗȖȘȧȌȒȈ, ȘȖȎȌȈȦȚșȧ ȐȏȚțȘȉțȓȍȕȚȕȖșȚȐ ȝȈȖșȈ»1.

1 Merry, Uri. Coping With Uncertainty Insights From the New Sciences of Chaos, Self-Organization and Complexity. Westport, CN: Praeger Publishers, 1995, p. 41. 12 January 2011. <http://www.questia.com/library/book/coping-with-uncertainty-insights-from-the-new-sciences-of-chaos-self- organization-and-complexity-by-uri-merry-natali-kassavin.jsp>.

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ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

3.ǺȍȖȘȐȧ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ

ȒȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȑ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ

3.1ǹȓȖȎȕȖșȚȤ Ȋ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȧȝ. ǷȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȈȓȤȕȣȑ șȌȊȐȋ

ǵȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖșȚȤ ȗȍȘȍȝȖȌȈ Ȓ șȓȖȎȕȖȔț ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȦ ȗȘȐ ȖȗȐșȈȕȐȐ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȑ ȉȣȓȈ ȖșȖȏȕȈȕȈ ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ ȌȈȊȕȖ. ǩȖȓȍȍ ȚȖȋȖ, Ȋ ȕȈșȚȖȧȡȍȍ ȊȘȍȔȧ ȔȖȎȕȖ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚȤ Ȗȉ ȥȊȖȓȦȞȐȐ ȊȏȋȓȧȌȖȊ, ȒȈșȈȦȡȐȝșȧ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȔȍȚȖȌȖȊ ȕȈțȒȐ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ Ȓ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȑ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ, Ȋ ȟȈșȚȕȖșȚȐ, ȗȘȖȞȍșșȈȔ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ. ǭșȓȐ ȘȈȕȕȐȍ ȘȈȉȖȚȣ Ȋ ȥȚȖȑ ȖȉȓȈșȚȐ ȐșȝȖȌȐȓȐ Ȑȏ ȚȖȋȖ, ȟȚȖ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȤ Ȋ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ ȘȈșȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȍȚșȧ ȘȈȊȕȖȔȍȘȕȖ, Ȋ ȕȈșȚȖȧȡȍȍ ȊȘȍȔȧ ȗȖȧȊȐȓȐșȤ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȕȐȧ, ȋȖȊȖȘȧȡȐȍ Ȗ ȕȍȖȌȕȖȘȖȌȕȖșȚȐ ȚȈȒȖȋȖ ȘȈșȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȧ1. ǻȎȍ ȗȘȖȑȌȍȕȕȣȑ ȗțȚȤ șȌȍȓȈȓ ȖȟȍȊȐȌȕȣȔ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖșȚȤ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȒȐ ȜȘȍȑȔȈ, ȖȗȐșȣȊȈȦȡȍȋȖ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȍ ȗȘȐȕȞȐȗȖȊ ȕȈțȒȐ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ Ȓ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȑ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ. ǷȖȗȣȚȒȐ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȈȚȤ ȚȈȒȖȑ ȜȘȍȑȔ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȧȚ Ȓ ȌȘȈȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȔ ȗȖșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȧȔ. ǺȈȉȓȐȞȈ 1 ȗȘȐȏȊȈȕȈ ȗȖȒȈȏȈȚȤ ȒȖȕȚȘȈșȚ ȔȍȎȌț ȗȖȓȖȎȍȕȐȧȔȐ Ȑ ȔȐȘȖȊȖȏȏȘȍȕȐȍȔ ȈȒȚțȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȑ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ Ȑ ȚȍȔ, ȟȚȖ ȗȘȍȌȓȈȋȈȍȚ ȊȏȋȓȧȌ șȒȊȖȏȤ ȗȘȐȏȔț șȓȖȎȕȖȋȖ ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȧ2. ǷȘȐȟȍȔ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȈȍȔȣȍ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȐȧ ȖȚȕȖșȧȚșȧ ȕȍ Ȓ ȜȖȘȔȍ ȐȓȐ șȚȐȓȦ, ȕȖ ȜțȕȌȈȔȍȕȚȈȓȤȕȣȔ ȗȖȓȖȎȍȕȐȧȔ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ.

3.2 ǰȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȍ ȖșȕȖȊȕȖȋȖ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȜȖȒțșȈ

ǵȈțȒȈ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȍȚ ȊȏȋȓȧȕțȚȤ ȗȖ-ȕȖȊȖȔț ȕȈ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȍ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ, ȘȍșȚȘțȒȚțȘȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȜțȕȒȞȐȐ Ȑ ȘȖȓȤ ȘțȒȖȊȖȌșȚȊȈ, ȗȘȍȌȓȈȋȈȧ ȕȖȊȣȍ șȗȖșȖȉȣ ȒȖȖȘȌȐȕȈȞȐȐ țșȐȓȐȑ ȗȘȐ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȐ ȗȖșȚȈȊȓȍȕȕȣȝ Ȟȍȓȍȑ. ǬȘțȋȐȔȐ șȓȖȊȈȔȐ, șȓȖȎȕȖȍ ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȍ ȐȏȔȍȕȧȍȚ ȖșȕȖȊȕȖȑ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȈȓȤȕȣȑ ȜȖȒțș (core paradigmatic focus) ȊȖșȗȘȐȧȚȐȧ Ȑ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȧ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȑ3. ǬȍȑșȚȊțȦȡȈȧ ȕȈ șȍȋȖȌȕȧȠȕȐȑ ȌȍȕȤ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȈ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ ȕȍșȍȚ ȕȈ șȍȉȍ ȗȍȟȈȚȤ ȈȘȋțȔȍȕȚȖȊ ǵȤȦȚȖȕȈ Ȑ ȆȔȈ, șȖȋȓȈșȕȖ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȔ ȕȈțȒȈ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȍȚșȧ ȜțȕȒȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȔȐ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȧȔȐ ȔȍȎȌț ȗȍȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȔȐ. ǽȖȚȧ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȕȖșȚȤ ȌȈȕȕȖȋȖ ȊȏȋȓȧȌȈ ȉȣȓȈ ȗȖȒȈȏȈȕȈ țȎȍ Ȋ 1977 ȋȖȌț, ȚȍȔ ȕȍ Ȕȍȕȍȍ Ȗȕ ȗȖȒȈ ȟȚȖ ȖșȚȈȍȚșȧ ȌȍȑșȚȊȍȕȕȣȔ Ȋ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȕȐȧȝ4.

1 Uhl-Bien, Mary, Marion Russ and Bill McKelvey. “Complex Leadership: Shifting Leadership from the Industrial Age to the Knowledge Era,” The Leadership Quarterly, Vol. 18, No 4, 2007, pp. 298-318.

2 ǺȈȉȓȐȞȈ ȊȏȧȚȈ Ȑȏ Marion, Complexity in Organizations, p. 249. 3 Marion, Complexity in Organizations, p. 249.

4 Suppe, Frederick. (ed.). The Structure of Scientific Theories. Second edition, Urbana: University of Illinois Press, 1977.

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ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ǺȈȉȓȐȞȈ 1

ǵȖȊȈȧ Ȑ șȚȈȘȈȧ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȣ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȋȖ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ

	ǬȖȔȐȕȐȘțȦȡȈȧ Ȋ	ǷȍȘșȗȍȒȚȐȊȈ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȋȖ
	ȕȈșȚȖȧȡȍȍ ȊȘȍȔȧ	ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ
	ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȈ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȋȖ
	ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ
ǶșȕȖȊȕȖȑ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋ-	«ǹȊȍȘȝț-ȊȕȐȏ», șȊȖȌȧȡȈȧșȧ Ȓ Șț-	«ǹȕȐȏț-ȊȊȍȘȝ», șȊȖȌȧȡȈȧșȧȒ
ȔȈȓȤȕȣȑ ȜȖȒțș	ȒȖȊȖȌșȚȊț.	ȐȕȚȍȘȈȒȚȐȊȕȖȑ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȒȍ.
ǼțȕȒȞȐȧ	ǶȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȚ ȓȦȌȧȔ	ǶȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȚȓȦȌȧȔ
ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ	ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȖ ȗȘȖȐȏȊȖȌȐȚȤ ȗȖȓȍȏ-	ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȖșȖȏȌȈȊȈȚȤȏȕȈȕȐȧ,
	ȕȣȍ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣ ȕȈ ȉȖȓȤȠȖȔ ȔȈș-	ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȔȖȋțȚȗȘȖȐȏȊȖȌȐȚȤȗȖ-
	ȠȚȈȉȍ.	ȓȍȏȕȣȍȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣȕȈȉȖȓȤȠȖȔ
		ȔȈșȠȚȈȉȍ
ǹȚȘțȒȚțȘȕȣȍ	ǩȦȘȖȒȘȈȚȐȧ ȐȓȐ ȍȌȐȕșȚȊȖ, ȉȈ-	ǹȓȖȎȕȣȍ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ, ȉȈȏȐ-
ȚȘȍȉȖȊȈȕȐȧ	ȏȐȘțȦȡȍȍșȧ ȕȈ ȖȉȧȏȈȚȍȓȤșȚȊȈȝ.	ȘțȦȡȐȍșȧ ȕȈ ȗȘȐȕȞȐȗȍ «șȕȐȏț-
		ȊȊȍȘȝ»
DzȈțȏȈȓȤȕȖșȚȤ	(a) dzȐȕȍȑȕȈȧ ȚȍȖȘȐȧ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȖȊ.	(a) ǵȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȈȧ, ȘȍȒțȘșȐȊȕȈȧ
	(b) ȅȗȐșȚȍȔȖȓȖȋȐȧ, ȉȈȏȐȘțȦȡȈȧșȧ	ȚȍȖȘȐȧ.
	ȕȈ ȗȍȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȝ	(b) ȅȗȐșȚȍȔȖȓȖȋȐȧ, ȉȈȏȐȘțȦ-
	(c) ǴȐȘȖȊȖȏȏȘȍȕȐȍ ȚȍȔȗȖȘȈȓȤȕȣȝ	ȡȈȧșȧ ȕȈ ȔȍȝȈȕȐȏȔȈȝ Ȑ ȗȍȘȍ-
	ȗȖȚȖȒȖȊ	Ȕȍȕȕȣȝ.
		(c) ǴȐȘȖȊȖȏȏȘȍȕȐȍ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚ-
		ȊȐȑ.
DzȈțȏȈȓȤȕȈȧ	(a) ǸȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣ ȗȓȈȕȐȘțȦȚșȧ	(a) ǸȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȥȔȍȘ-
ȐȔȗȓȐȒȈȞȐȧ	(b) dzȐȌȍȘȣ – ȒȈțȏȈȓȤȕȣȍ șȚȐȔț-	ȋȍȕȚȕȣȔȐ Ȑ ȕȍȖȎȐȌȈȕȕȣȔȐ
	ȓȧȚȖȘȣ.	(b) dzȐȌȍȘȣ– ȕȈȒȘȖȔȒȍȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈ-
		ȞȐȐȐȗȘȖȞȍșșȖȊ.
ǴȖȚȐȊȈȞȐȧ	ǴȖȚȐȊȈȞȐȧ ȗȖșȘȍȌșȚȊȖȔ ȞȍȕȚ-	ǴȖȚȐȊȈȞȐȧ ȗȖșȘȍȌșȚȊȖȔ ȐȕȚȍ-
	ȘȈȓȤȕȣȝ șȚȘțȒȚțȘ (ȕȈȟȈȓȤȕȐȒȖȊ,	ȘȈȒȚȐȊȕȖȑ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȒȐ.
	ȉȦȘȖȒȘȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȗȘȈȊȐȓ Ȑ ȗȘ.).
ǪȐȌȍȕȐȍ	ǭȌȐȕșȚȊȖ ȊȐȌȍȕȐȧ	ǫȍȚȍȘȖȋȍȕȕȣȍ Ȑ ȕȍȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕ-
		ȕȣȍ ȊȐȌȍȕȐȧ
ǶȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȍ	ǸțȒȖȊȖȌșȚȊȖ – ȥȚȖ ȓȐȟȕȖșȚȐ, ȋȍȕȍ-	ǸțȒȖȊȖȌșȚȊȖ – ȥȚȖ ȥȕȍȘȋȐȧ, ȒȖ-
ȘțȒȖȊȖȌșȚȊȈ	ȘȐȘțȦȡȐȍ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȖȕȕțȦ	ȚȖȘȈȧ ȗȖȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ
	ȥȕȍȘȋȐȦ ȟȍȘȍȏ ȝȈȘȐȏȔț, ȐȕȚȍȓ-	ȗȘȐ ȏȈȌȈȕȕȣȝ ȘȈȏȘȍȠȈȦȡȐȝ
	ȓȍȒȚ, ȔȍȎȓȐȟȕȖșȚȕȣȍ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȖȚ-	(șȚȐȔțȓȐȘțȦȡȐȝ) țșȓȖȊȐȧȝ.
	ȕȖȠȍȕȐȧ, ȊȌȖȝȕȖȊȍȕȐȍ Ȑ ȗȘ.

Ǫ șȊȖȍ ȊȘȍȔȧ ǬȎȖȏȍȜ ǴȈȒșȊȍȓȓ (Joseph Maxwell) ȗȖȒȈȏȈȓ, ȟȚȖ ȓȐȟȕȖșȚȤ Ȋ șȊȖȍȑ ȍȎȍȌȕȍȊȕȖȑ ȌȍȧȚȍȓȤȕȖșȚȐ ȐșȝȖȌȐȚ Ȑȏ ȚȖȋȖ, ȟȚȖ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȈȧ ȎȐȏȕȤ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐ ȖȉȢȧșȕȍȕȈ1. ǷȘȐȕȧȚȐȍ ȌȈȕȕȖȑ ȚȖȟȒȐ ȏȘȍȕȐȧ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȓȖȋȐȒȈ ȗȘȖșȚȣȝ ȗȘȐȟȐȕ Ȑ șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȑ ȊȖșȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȍȚșȧ ȒȈȒ ȌȈȕȕȖșȚȤ, ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚ Ȓ ȚȖȔț, ȟȚȖ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȕȐȍ ȐțȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȍ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȔ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍȔ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȗȘȖșȚȣȔ Ȑ ȕȍ ȏȈȊȐșȧȡȐȔ ȖȚ ȒȖȕȚȍȒșȚȈ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȣ. DzȈȒ șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍ, ȏȕȈȕȐȍ ȒȈțȏȈȓȤ-

1 Maxwell, Joseph A. “Causal explanation, qualitative research, and scientific inquiry in education,” Educational Researcher Vol. 33, No 2, 2004, pp. 3-11.

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ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȕȣȝ ȊȏȈȐȔȖșȊȧȏȍȑ Ȑ șȚȘțȒȚțȘ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȍȚ ȘȍȋțȓȧȚȖȘț (ȘțȒȖȊȖȌșȚȊț) ȜȖȘȔȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȉțȌțȡȐȍ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȧ Ȑ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ șȐșȚȍȔȣ, Ȋ ȚȖȔ ȟȐșȓȍ ȟȍȘȍȏ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȍ ȕȈ șȘȍȌț. ǶȚȒȓȐȒȖȔ ȕȈ șȓȖȎȕȣȍ ȊȣȏȖȊȣ Ȋ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ ȌȈȕȕȖȑ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȣ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȒȈ Ȑ ȘȍȈȓȐȏȈȞȐȧ ȉȖȓȍȍ șȓȖȎȕȖȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ, ȚȍȔ ȕȍ Ȕȍȕȍȍ, ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ șȊȍȌȍȕȈ Ȓ ȗȘȖȞȍȌțȘȈȔ ȒȖȖȘȌȐȕȈȞȐȐ Ȑ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȦ. ǶșȕȖȊȕȣȔ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȔ ȜȖȒțșȖȔ Ȋ ȥȚȖȔ șȓțȟȈȍ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȗȘȍȌȗȖȓȖȎȍȕȐȍ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ «șȊȍȘȝț-ȊȕȐȏ» (top-down control) Ȑ șțȡȍșȚȊȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȔȍȚȘȐȒȐ, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȡȍȑȖȞȍȕȐȚȤ ȍȍȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȤ.

ǶȌȕȈȒȖ ȘȍȒțȘșȐȊȕȈȧ ȓȖȋȐȒȈ, ȓȍȎȈȡȈȧ Ȋ ȖșȕȖȊȍ șȓȖȎȕȖȋȖ ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȧ, ȉțȌțȟȐ ȗȘȧȔȖ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȈ Ȓ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȧȔ, ȌȍȓȈȍȚ ȖȟȍȕȤ ȚȘțȌȕȣȔ Ȑ ȌȈȎȍ ȗȘȖșȚȖ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣȔ ȗȘȖȋȕȖȏȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ Ȑ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ Ȋ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȐ ȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȣȝ ȔȖȌȍȓȍȑ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȋȖ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ. ǺȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȣȍ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ Ȑ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȍ ȖșțȡȍșȚȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȕȈ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȒȐ ȔȕȖȎȍșȚȊȈ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣȝ șȞȍȕȈȘȐȍȊ ȉțȌțȡȍȋȖ ȗȘȐ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȐ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȐȌȍȕȚȐȜȐȞȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ Ȋșȍ ȒȈțȏȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȈȋȍȕȚȣ Ȑ ȚȍȔ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȔȍȎȌț ȕȐȔȐ. ǺȍȖȘȐȧ ǹǨǹ ȐșȝȖȌȐȚ Ȑȏ ȚȖȋȖ, ȟȚȖ ȉțȌțȡȐȍ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȥȔȍȘȋȍȕȚȕȣȔ ȗȘȖȌțȒȚȖȔ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȝ Ȑ șȓȖȎȕȣȝ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ ȔȍȎȌț ȗȍȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȔȐ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȕȐȍ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ Ȍȓȧ ȕȍȗȖșȘȍȌșȚȊȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȉțȌțȡȍȋȖ ȐȓȐ Ȍȓȧ șȐșȚȍȔ Ȑ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȑ, ȕȈȝȖȌȧȡȐȝșȧ Ȋ ȒȖȕȞȍȊȖȑ ȏȖȕȍ ȋȓțȉȖȒȖȋȖ ȘȈȊȕȖȊȍșȐȧ. ǹȓȖȎȕȣȍ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ ȕȍ ȔȖȋțȚ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȚȤșȧ Ȋ ȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȖȔ șȔȣșȓȍ Ȑ, șȒȖȘȍȍ, ȘȈȏȘȍȠȈȦȚ ȕȍȌȍȚȍȘȔȐȕȈȕȚȕȖȍ ȊȐȌȍȕȐȍ Ȑ ȏȈȌȈ-

ȕȐȍ ȔȐșșȐȐ (non-determinate visioning and mission-setting), ȗȘȐȏȊȈȕȕȣȍ șȚȐȔțȓȐ-

ȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȥȔȍȘȋȍȕȚȕȣȍȐȕȕȖȊȈȞȐȐ1.

ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, ȖșȕȖȊȕȖȑ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȑ ȜȖȒțș ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȍȚșȧ ȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȍȔ Ȓ ȘȍȒțȘșȐȊȕȖȑ, ȐȕȚȍȘȈȒȚȐȊȕȖȑ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȒȍ ȒȈȒ ȒȓȦȟȍȊȖȑ ȌȊȐȎțȡȍȑ șȐȓȍ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ. ǰȕȚȍȘȈȒȚȐȊȕȈȧ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȒȈ ȘȈȏȊȖȘȈȟȐȊȈȍȚșȧ ȒȈȒ ȊȍȘȚȐȒȈȓȤȕȖ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȋȖȘȐȏȖȕȚȈȓȤȕȖ, ȖȝȊȈȚȣȊȈȧ Ȋșȍ ȐȍȘȈȘȝȐȟȍșȒȐȍ țȘȖȊȕȐ șȐșȚȍȔȣ. ǺȈȒȖȑ ȊȏȋȓȧȌ ȐȌȍȚ ȊȘȈȏȘȍȏ ș ȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȖȑ ȐȍȘȈȘȝȐȟȍșȒȖȑ, ȞȍȕȚȘȈȓȐȏȖȊȈȕȕȖȑ ȔȖȌȍȓȤȦ ȖșțȡȍșȚȊȓȍȕȐȧ ȘțȒȖȊȖȌșȚȊȈ Ȑ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ Ȋ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ Ȑ ȗȖȌȟȍȘȒȐȊȈȍȚ ȒȘȐȚȐȟȍșȒțȦ ȊȈȎȕȖșȚȤ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȍȕȐȧ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȕȖȑ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȒȐ. DzȈȒ șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍ, Ȋ ȖȚȓȐȟȐȍ ȖȚ ȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȖȑ ȗȍȘșȗȍȒȚȐȊȣ ȒȖȖȘȌȐȕȈȞȐȐ ȈȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȐ Ȋ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ (ȗȖȌȝȖȌ «șȊȍȘȝț-ȊȕȐȏ»), ȜȖȒțș șȔȍȡȈȍȚșȧ ȕȈ țȟȍȚ șȍȚȐ ȕȍȜȖȘȔȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ ȔȍȎȌț ȈȋȍȕȚȈȔȐ ȕȈ Ȋșȍȝ ȐȍȘȈȘȝȐȟȍșȒȐȝ țȘȖȊȕȧȝ. ǸȖȓȤ ȘțȒȖȊȖȌșȚȊȈ Ȋ ȥȚȖȔ șȓțȟȈȍ șȊȖȌȐȚșȧ ȕȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ Ȓ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȦ Ȑ ȒȖȖȘȌȐȕȈȞȐȐ, ȕȖ Ȑ șȖȏȌȈȕȐȦ țșȓȖȊȐȑ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȌȍȓȈȦȚ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖȑ ȥȔȍȘȋȍȕȚȕțȦ ȒȖȖȘȌȐȕȈȞȐȦ (șȈȔȖșȐȕȝȘȖȕȐȏȈȞȐȦ). ǸȍȟȤ Ȋ ȌȈȕȕȖȔ șȓțȟȈȍ ȐȌȍȚ ȐȔȍȕȕȖ Ȗ șȔȍȡȍȕȐȐ ȜȖȒțșȈ ș ȞȍȓȤȦ țȟȍȚȈ ȕȍȜȖȘȔȈȓȤȕȣȝ șȍȚȍȊȣȝ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ, Ȉ ȕȍ ȖȚȒȈȏȍ ȖȚ ȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȖȑ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȣ ȘțȒȖȊȖȌșȚȊȈ Ȑ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ Ȋ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ. ȅȚȖ, Ȋ șȊȖȦ ȖȟȍȘȍȌȤ, ȗȘȍȌȗȖȓȈȋȈȍȚ ȘȈȌȐȒȈȓȤȕȣȑ șȌȊȐȋ ȖȚ ȔȖȌȍȓȍȑ ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȧ 20 ȊȍȒȈ Ȓ șȓȖȎȕȖȔț ȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȦ.

1 Marion, Complexity in Organizations, pp. 251-252.

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ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

3.3DzȖȖȘȌȐȕȈȞȐȧ Ȑ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȍ Ȋ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ Ȑ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȈ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ

Ǫ20 ȊȍȒȍ ȌȖȔȐȕȈȕȚȕȖȑ șȚȘțȒȚțȘȖȑ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȋȖ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ șȚȈȓȈ ȉȦȘȖȒȘȈȚȐȧ. ǴȈȒș ǪȍȉȍȘ ȗȘȍȌȓȖȎȐȓ ȐȌȍȈȓȤȕțȦ ȉȦȘȖȒȘȈȚȐȟȍșȒțȦ ȔȖȌȍȓȤ, ȖșȕȖȊȣȊȈȦȡțȦșȧ ȕȈ ȕȈȌȓȐȟȕȖșȚȕȣȝ ȗȘȈȊȐȓȈȝ, ȔȍȘȐȚȖȒȘȈȚȐȐ, șȗȍȞȐȈȓȐȏȈȞȐȐ Ȑ ȌȍȚȈȓȐȏȈȞȐȐ1. ǩȦȘȖȒȘȈȚȐȧ ȖȒȈȏȈȓȈșȤ șȗȖșȖȉȕȈ ȒȖȖȘȌȐȕȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȘȈȉȖȚț ȉȖȓȤȠȐȝ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȑ ȟȍȘȍȏ ȠȐȘȖȒȖȔȈșȠȚȈȉȕȖȍ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ, ȟȚȖ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȓȖ ȘȍȠȈȚȤ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȍ Ȑ șȓȖȎȕȣȍ ȏȈȌȈȟ ȐȕȌțșȚȘȐȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȥȗȖȝȐ. ǶȌȕȈȒȖ țȎȍ ǪȍȉȍȘ ȗȘȍȌțȗȘȍȎȌȈȓ, ȟȚȖ ȉȦȘȖȒȘȈȚȐȧ ȏȈȒȈȉȈȓȧȍȚ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȖ, ȌȍȋțȔȈȕȐȏȐȘțȧ ȍȋȖ. DzȈȒ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȟȍșȚȊȖ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȕȈ ȗțȚȤ ȉȦȘȖȒȘȈȚȐȐ, ȖȕȖ ȗȘȍȊȘȈȡȈȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȏȈȒȓȦȟȍȕȕȖȋȖ, «ȐȕȖȋȌȈ ȗȖȒȈȕȍșȋȖȘȐȚ ȗȖșȓȍȌȕȧȧ ȚȖȕȕȈ ȒȈȔȍȕȕȖȋȖ țȋȓȧ»2. ǺȍȔ ȕȍ Ȕȍȕȍȍ ǪȍȉȍȘ ȕȍ ȊȐȌȍȓ ȈȓȤȚȍȘȕȈȚȐȊȣ ȎȍșȚȒȖȑ ȐȍȘȈȘȝȐȟȍșȒȖȑ șȚȘțȒȚțȘȍ ȉȦȘȖȒȘȈȚȐȐ, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȡȍȑ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȚȤ ȉȖȓȤȠȖȑ ȔȈșȠȚȈȉ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ ȉȣȓ ȒȘȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐ ȊȈȎȍȕ Ȍȓȧ ȊȖșȗȘȖȐȏȊȖȌșȚȊȈ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȉȖȋȈȚșȚȊȈ Ȋ 20 ȊȍȒȍ. Dz ȒȖȕȞț 20 ȊȍȒȈ șȚȈȓȖ ȖȟȍȊȐȌȕȣȔ, ȟȚȖ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȍ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ Ȍȓȧ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȖȑ ȒȖȖȘȌȐȕȈȞȐȐ șȊȖȐȝ țșȐȓȐȑ ȕțȎȌȈȦȚșȧ ȚȈȒȎȍ Ȑ ȊȖ ȊȕțȚȘȍȕȕȐȝ ȔȍȝȈȕȐȏȔȈȝ (ȔȍȕȍȌȎȔȍȕȚȍ, ȉȈȏȐȘțȦȡȍȔșȧ ȕȈ ȌȖȊȍȘȐȐ), Ȉ ȕȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȊȖ ȊȕȍȠȕȐȝ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȐȧȝ (ȉȦȘȖȒȘȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȗȘȈȊȐȓȈȝ)3. dzȐȕȌȈ ǹȔȐȘȟȐȟ (Linda Smircich) Ȑ ǫȈȘȍȚ ǴȖȘȋȈȕ (Gareth Morgan) ȕȈȏȊȈȓȐ ȕȖȊȣȑ ȗȖȌȝȖȌ ȔȍȕȍȌȎȔȍȕȚȖȔ șȔȣșȓȈ (management of meaning)4, ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȧ ȍȋȖ ȒȈȒ «“ȖșȔȣșȓȍȕȐȍ”

ȊȐȕȚȍȘȍșȈȝ ȌȘțȋȐȝ Ȑ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȍ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȒȖȕșȍȕșțșȈ ȊȖȒȘțȋ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȐȘțȦȡȍȋȖ șȔȣșȓȈ»5. ǬȘțȋȐȔȐ șȓȖȊȈȔȐ, ȘȍȟȤ ȐȌȍȚ Ȗ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖșȚȐ Ȑ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȒȖȕșȍȕșțșȈ Ȋ șȓȖȎȕȖȑ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ Ȍȓȧ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȍȕȐȧ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȐ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ ȐȈȓȤȚȍȘȕȈȚȐȊȍ «ȎȍȓȍȏȕȖȑ ȒȓȍȚȒȍ» ȉȦȘȖȒȘȈȚȐȐ.

ǷȖȧȊȓȍȕȐȍ ȕȈțȒȐ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ Ȑ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ ǹǨǹ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȐȓȖ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȈȚȤ ȍȡȍ ȖȌȐȕ ȔȍȝȈȕȐȏȔ ȒȖȖȘȌȐȕȈȞȐȐ Ȑ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȍȑ, ȖȗȐȘȈȦȡȐȑșȧ ȕȈ șȍȚȍȊțȦ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȒț. ǺȈȒȖȍ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȖȊ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȋȖ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ ȌȘȈȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐ ȖȚȓȐȟȈȍȚșȧ ȖȚ ȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȖȋȖ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊȍȕȕȖșȚȤ ȓȐȌȍȘȖȊ Ȑ ȔȍȕȍȌȎȔȍȕȚȈ Ȋ ȞȍȓȖȔ ȖȞȍȕȐȊȈȍȚșȧ ȊȕțȚȘȐ ȒȖȕȚȍȒșȚȈ ȊȍȘȚȐȒȈȓȐ ȊȓȈșȚȐ, ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȖȊȈȕȕȖȑ «șȊȍȘȝț-ȊȕȐȏ». ǷȘȖȞȍșșȣ ȒȖȖȘȌȐȕȈȞȐȐ Ȑ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȦȚșȧ ȊșȚȘȖȍȕȕȣȔȐ Ȋ ȈȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȤ șȍȚȐ ȈȋȍȕȚȖȊ, ȟȚȖ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȊȈȍȚ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ ȔȈȒșȐȔțȔ ȋȐȉȒȖșȚȐ, ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕțȦ ȈȌȈȗȚȈȞȐȦ Ȑ șȗȖșȖȉȕȖșȚȤ ȘȍȈȋȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȕȈ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȣȍ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ Ȋ șȘȍȌȍ. ǵȖȊȣȑ ȗȖȌȝȖȌ ȐȌȍȈȓȤȕȖ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȐȚ Ȍȓȧ ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȒȐ, ȉȈȏȐȘțȦ-

1 Weber, Max. The theory of social and economic organization. Glencoe, IL: Free Press, 1947.

2 Weber, Max. Protestant ethic and the spirit of capitalism New York: Scribner, 1952, pp. 181-182.

3 Zaccaro, Stephen J. and Klimoski, Richard J. “The nature of organizational leadership: An introduction,” in Zaccaro, Stephen J. and Klimoski, Richard J. The nature of organizational leadership. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 2001, pp. 3-41.

4 Smircich, Linda and Gareth Morgan. “Leadership: The management of meaning,” Journal of Applied Behavioral Science, Vol. 18, 1982, pp. 257-273. 12 January 2011. <http://www.cua.uam.mx/biblio/ueas09-O/ueaarticulos/ Leadership_The%20Management%20of%20Meaning.pdf>.

5 Bryman, A. “Leadership in organizations,” in Clegg, S., C. Hardy and W. Nord (ed.). Handbook of Organization Studies. London: Sage Publications, 1996, pp. 276-292.

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ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȡȍȑșȧ ȕȈ ȏȕȈȕȐȧȝ (knowledge-based economies) Ȑ ȖȉțȟȈȦȡȐȝșȧ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȧȝ (learning organizations). DzȖȖȘȌȐȕȈȞȐȧ Ȑ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȍ Ȋ șȓȖȎȕȖȑ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ șȚȈȕȖȊȧȚșȧ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣ, ȍșȓȐ Ȗȉȍșȗȍȟȍȕ ȘȧȌ ȒȘȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐ ȊȈȎȕȣȝ ȗȈȘȈȔȍȚȘȖȊ Ȑ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘȐșȚȐȒ ǹǨǹ, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȡȐȝ ȍȑ ȕȈȝȖȌȐȚȤșȧ Ȋ ȘȍȋȐȖȕȍ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ. ǸȍȟȤ, Ȋ ȗȍȘȊțȦ ȖȟȍȘȍȌȤ, ȐȌȍȚ Ȗȉ țȔȍȘȍȕȕȖȑ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȏȈȊȐșȐȔȖșȚȐ ȈȋȍȕȚȖȊ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȈȌȍȒȊȈȚȕȖșȚȤ ȈȋȍȕȚȈ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȍȚșȧ Ȑ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍȔ, Ȋ ȟȐșȓȍ ȗȘȖȟȍȋȖ, ȈȌȍȒȊȈȚȕȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ ȌȘțȋȐȝ ȈȋȍȕȚȖȊ, ș ȒȖȚȖȘȣȔȐ Ȗȕ șȊȧȏȈȕ1. DzȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȣ ȔȍȎȌț ȈȋȍȕȚȈȔȐ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȧȚ Ȓ ȗȖȧȊȓȍȕȐȦ ȕȈȗȘȧȎȍȕȐȧ Ȋ șȍȚȐ, ȊȣȕțȎȌȈȦȡȍȋȖ ȈȋȍȕȚȖȊ ȗȘȍȌȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȚȤ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȗȖ Ȑȝ ȘȈȏȘȍȠȍȕȐȦ. ǺȍȔ șȈȔȣȔ șȍȚȐ ȈȋȍȕȚȖȊ șȚȈȊȐȚșȧ Ȋ șȖȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊȐȍ șȍȚȤ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚțȦȡȐȝ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȐȑ ȐȓȐ șȍȚȤ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȖȊ, ȟȚȖ ȌȍȓȈȍȚ ȏȈȌȈȟț șȖȋȓȈșȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȉȖȓȍȍ șȓȖȎȕȖȑ, ȟȍȔ ȥȚȖ ȐȔȍȍȚ ȔȍșȚȖ, ȕȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ, ȗȘȐ ȉȦȘȖȒȘȈȚȐȟȍșȒȖȔ șȚȐȓȍ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ.

ǭșȓȐ șȍȚȤ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘȐȏțȍȚșȧ șȐȓȤȕȖȑ șȊȧȏȕȖșȚȤȦ, ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ Ȋ ȖȌȕȖȔ ȈȋȍȕȚȍ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊțȦȚ ȕȈ ȉȖȓȤȠȖȍ ȟȐșȓȖ ȌȘțȋȐȝ. DzȈȒ șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍ, ȜȖȘȔȐȘțȦȡȈȧșȧ șȍȚȤ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȐȑ ȉțȌȍȚ ȉȖȓȤȠȖȑ, ȟȚȖ ȌȍȓȈȍȚ ȏȈȌȈȟț ȘȈȏȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȖȊ ȟȍȘȍșȟțȘ șȓȖȎȕȖȑ. ǹȐșȚȍȔȣ ș șȐȓȤȕȖȑ șȊȧȏȕȖșȚȤȦ ȐȔȍȦȚ ȚȍȕȌȍȕȞȐȦ «ȏȈȔȖȘȈȎȐȊȈȚȤșȧ», ȏȈșȚȣȊȈȚȤ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȓȦȉȣȍ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ șȚȘțȒȚțȘȣ Ȑ ȜțȕȒȞȐȐ ȈȋȍȕȚȖȊ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȦȚșȧ ȒȈȒ ȌȍșȚȘțȒȚȐȊȕȣȍ. ǭșȓȐ șȍȚȤ șȓȈȉȖ șȊȧȏȈȕȈ, ȚȖ șȓȈȉȖȑ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ Ȑ șȍȚȤ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȐȑ, ȟȚȖ ȌȍȓȈȍȚ ȗȘȖȞȍșș ȈȌȈȗȚȈȞȐȐ Ȋ șȐșȚȍȔȍ șȓȈȉȣȔ ȐȓȐ ȌȈȎȍ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣȔ. ǰ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ș țȔȍȘȍȕȕȖȑ șȊȧȏȕȖșȚȤȦ ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ ȎȍșȚȒȐ Ȍȓȧ șȚȐȔțȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȖȊ ȈȌȈȗȚȈȞȐȐ Ȑ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȧ, ȕȖ Ȋ ȚȖ Ȏȍ ȊȘȍȔȧ șȓȈȉȣ, ȟȚȖȉȣ șȌȍȓȈȚȤ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣȔ ȕȈȝȖȎȌȍȕȐȧ ȗȘȐȍȔȓȍȔȖȋȖ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ Ȋ șȍȚȐ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȐȑ2. ǹȍȚȤ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȐȑ Ȋ țȔȍȘȍȕȕȖ șȊȧȏȕȖȑ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȊȈȍȚ ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖȍ ȌȈȊȓȍȕȐȍ ȕȈ ȈȋȍȕȚȖȊ, ȟȚȖȉȣ ȏȈȗțșȚȐȚȤ ȗȘȖȞȍșș șȈȔȖșȐȕȝȘȖȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ Ȑ ȒȖȖȘȌȐȕȈȞȐȐ, ȕȖ ȕȍ ȕȈșȚȖȓȤȒȖ șȐȓȤȕȖȍ, ȟȚȖȉȣ ȗȖȌȈȊȐȚȤ ȒȘȍȈȚȐȊȕȖșȚȤ.

DzȘȍȈȚȐȊȕȖșȚȤ Ȑ ȒȖȖȘȌȐȕȈȞȐȧ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ Ȋ șȍȚȐ șȚȈȕȖȊȧȚșȧ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣ Ȑ ȟȍȘȍȏ ȔȍȝȈȕȐȏȔ ȘȈȏȘȍȠȈȦȡȐȝ (șȚȐȔțȓȐȘțȦȡȐȝ) ȗȘȈȊȐȓ (enabling rules), ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȦȚ ȋȘȈȕȐȞȣ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȈȋȍȕȚȖȊ. ǶȕȐ ȖȚȓȐȟȈȦȚșȧ ȖȚ ȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȣȝ ȉȦȘȖȒȘȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȗȘȈȊȐȓ. ǭșȓȐ ȗȖșȓȍȌȕȐȍ ȐȔȍȦȚ ȚȍȕȌȍȕȞȐȦ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȐȊȈȚȤ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ ȈȋȍȕȚȖȊ ȗȖșȘȍȌșȚȊȖȔ ȜȖȘȔȈȓȐȏȖȊȈȕȕȣȝ ȗȘȖȞȍȌțȘ, ȚȖ șȚȐȔțȓȐȘțȦȡȐȍ ȗȘȈȊȐȓȈ șȒȖȘȍȍ ȘȈșȠȐȘȧȦȚ, ȕȍȎȍȓȐ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȐȊȈȦȚ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȈȋȍȕȚȖȊ Ȑ ȋȘțȗȗ, ȘȈȏȘȍȠȈȧ ȔȍȎȋȘțȗȗȖȊțȦ ȊȕțȚȘȍȕȕȦȦ ȒȖȖȘȌȐȕȈȞȐȦ, ȒȈșȒȈȌȕȣȍ ȕȈșȚȘȖȑȒȐ Ȑ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȣ (ȒȖȋȌȈ ȖȠȐȉȒȐ/ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ ȖȌȕȖȑ ȋȘțȗȗȣ șȖȏȌȈȦȚ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȣ/ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ Ȍȓȧ ȌȘțȋȐȝ)3. DzȖȖȘȌȐȕȈȞȐȧ Ȋ ȚȈȒȖȑ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȖȔ ȊȐȌȍȕȐȧ Ȑ ȔȐșșȐȐ (vision and mission), ȧȊȓȧȦȡȐȝșȧ ȗȘȖȍȒȞȐȍȑ ȉțȌțȡȍȋȖ. ǴȐșșȐȧ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ «ȗȘȖȌțȒȚȖȔ ȐȓȐ

1 Uhl-Bien, Complex Leadership: Shifting Leadership from the Industrial Age to the Knowledge Era. 2 Kauffman, The origins of order.

3 Marion, Complexity in Organizations, pp. 253-254.

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