Арзуманян Р., Сложное мышление и сеть парадигма нелинейности и среда безопасности 21 века

ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȕȈȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȕȣȍ ȕȈ ȐȏțȟȍȕȐȍ șȐșȚȍȔȕȣȝ ȈșȗȍȒȚȖȊ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ, ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȘȣȕȒȈ, șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȒȐ, ȒȖȋȕȐȚȐȊȕȖȑ ȕȍȑȘȖȕȈțȒȐ Ȑ ȗȘ.1

ǪȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ, Ȍȓȧ ȚȖȋȖ ȟȚȖȉȣ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȐȚȤ Ȑ ȊȣȌȍȓȐȚȤ țșȐȓȐȧ ȕȈ ȕȖȊȖȔ ȊȐȚȒȍ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȧ ȔȍȎȌȐșȞȐȗȓȐȕȈȘȕȣȝ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȕȐȑ țȎȍ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ ȕȈțȒȐ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ, ȐȕșȚȐȚțȚ ǹȈȕȚȈ Ǽȍ ȖșȚȈȕȖȊȐȓ șȊȖȑ ȊȣȉȖȘ ȕȈ ȚȍȘȔȐȕȍ «șȓȖȎȕȣȍ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȣȍ șȐșȚȍȔȣ» (ǹǨǹ), ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ ǴȦȘȘȍȑ ǫȍȓȓ-ǴȈȕȕ (Murray Gell-Mann), ȖȌȐȕ Ȑȏ ȖșȕȖȊȈȚȍȓȍȑ ȐȕșȚȐȚțȚȈ Ȑ ȊȗȖșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȐ ȕȖȉȍȓȍȊșȒȐȑ ȓȈțȘȍȈȚ, ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȐȓ ȒȈȒ șȐșȚȍȔȣ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ «...ȗȖȓțȟȈȦȚ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȦ Ȗ șȊȖȍȑ șȘȍȌȍ Ȑ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȐ ș ȕȍȑ, ȐȌȍȕȚȐȜȐȞȐȘțȧ ȏȈȒȖȕȖȔȍȘȕȖșȚȐ (șȐșȚȍȔȕȖșȚȤ) Ȋ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȐ, ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȧ Ȑȝ (ȏȈȒȖȕȖȔȍȘȕȖșȚȐ) Ȋ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ «șȝȍȔȣ» ȐȓȐ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ Ȑ ȌȍȑșȚȊțȧ Ȋ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȖȔ ȔȐȘȍ ȕȈ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȌȈȕȕȖȑ șȝȍȔȣ»2. ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, ȚȍȖȘȐȧ ǹǨǹ, ȉțȌțȟȐ ȍșȚȍșȚȊȍȕȕȣȔ ȥȚȈȗȖȔ Ȋ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȐ șȐșȚȍȔȕȣȝ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȕȐȑ, ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȊȈȎȕȣȔ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚȖȔ Ȍȓȧ ȖȗȐșȈȕȐȧ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ Ȑ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȑ3. ǨȚȘȐȉțȚ «șȓȖȎȕȣȍ» (complex) (ȖȚ ȓȈȚȐȕșȒȖȋȖ «cum plexus» – ȗȍȘȍȗȓȍȚȍȕȕȣȍ, șȊȧȏȈȕȕȣȍ) ȗȘȐȏȊȈȕ ȖȚȖȉȘȈȏȐȚȤ ȜȈȒȚ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȐȧ ȌȈȕȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ Ȑ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ Ȑȝ șȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ Ȓ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȗȘȖșȚȣȔ, ȕȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ, țșȓȖȎȕȍȕȕȣȔ șȐșȚȍȔȈȔ (complicated – ȖȚ ȓȈȚȐȕșȒȖȋȖ «cum pliare», ȕȈȋȘȖȔȖȎȌȍȕȕȣȍ (piled up with))4. ȇȘȒȐȔ ȗȘȐȔȍȘȖȔ țșȓȖȎȕȍȕȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ ȔȖȋțȚ șȓțȎȐȚȤ ȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȣȍ ȊȣȟȐșȓȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȍ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȗȍȘȊȣȝ ȟȍȚȣȘȍȝ ȗȖȒȖȓȍȕȐȑ.

1.1 ǹȓȖȎȕȣȍ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȣȍ șȐșȚȍȔȣ

ǺȍȖȘȐȧ ǹǨǹ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȍȚ șȐșȚȍȔȣ Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ ȕȍȑȘȖȗȖȌȖȉȕȣȝ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊțȦȡȐȝ șȍȚȍȑ ȈȋȍȕȚȖȊ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȘȖȊȈȚȤșȧ ȗȖȌ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȍȔ ȊȕțȚȘȍȕȕȍȑ Ȑ ȊȕȍȠȕȍȑ șȘȍȌȣ ȟȍȘȍȏ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȍ șȚȘțȒȚțȘȣ Ȑ ȜțȕȒȞȐȑ șȊȖȐȝ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȖȊ (șȈȔȖȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȦ). ǷȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ ǹǨǹ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȖȉȢȧșȕȍȕȖ Ȋ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȒȐ șȍȚȍȊȖȋȖ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ5. ǷȘȐ ȥȚȖȔ ǹǨǹ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȖȒȈȏȈȚȤșȧ Ȋ «șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ, ȌȈȓȍȒȖȔ ȖȚ ȘȈȊȕȖȊȍșȐȧ»6, Ȋ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȔ ȖȕȈ ȉȈȓȈȕșȐȘțȍȚ ȕȈ «ȒȘȖȔȒȍ ȝȈȖșȈ». ǩȈȓȈȕșȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȕȈ «ȒȘȖȔȒȍ ȝȈȖșȈ» ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ȕȈȐȉȖȓȍȍ ȖȗȚȐȔȈȓȤȕȣȔ Ȍȓȧ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȧ șȐșȚȍȔȣ. ǽȖȚȧ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȒȈ ǹǨǹ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȍȚ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȣ ȍșȚȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȖȚȉȖȘȈ, ȍȍ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ ȘȈȏȕȖȖȉȘȈȏȕȍȍ Ȑ ȕțȎȌȈȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȠȐȘȖȒȖȔ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȍ. DzȈțȏȈȓȤȕȈȧ

1 Scott, The Nonlinear Universe – Chaos, Emergence, Life, p. 98. 2 Gell-Mann, The Quark and the Jaguar.

3 Brown, S. L. and Eisenhardt, K. M. Competing on the edge. Boston, MA: Harvard Business School Press., 1998; Gronn, P. “Distributed leadership as a unit of analysis,” The Leadership Quarterly, Vol. 13, Issue 4, 2002, pp. 423451; Marion, Russ and Mary Uhl-Bien “Leadership in complex organizations,” The Leadership Quarterly, Vol. 12, No. 4, 2001, pp. 389-418. 12 January 2011. http://cba.unl.edu/research/articles/1250.

4 Bertelle, Cyrille, G´erard H. E. Duchamp, Hakima Kadri-Dahmani (eds.) Complex Systems and Self-organization Modelling. Berlin Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag, 2009, p. 4.

5 Uhl-Bien, Mary and Marion, Russ (eds.). Complexity & Leadership, Volume I: Conceptual Foundations. Information Charlotte, NC: Publishing Associates, 2008;

Marion, Russ. The edge of organization: Chaos and complexity theories of formal social organization. Newbury Park, CA: Sage Publications, Inc., 1999.

6 Prigogine, The end of certainty.

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ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȓȖȋȐȒȈ ǹǨǹ ȉȈȏȐȘțȍȚșȧ șȒȖȘȍȍ ȕȈ ȘȍȒțȘșȐȐ (ȔȕȖȋȖȟȐșȓȍȕȕȣȝ Ȑ ȔȕȖȋȖȖȉȘȈȏȕȣȝ ȗȘȐȟȐȕȕȖ-șȓȍȌșȚȊȍȕȕȣȝ Ȟȍȗȧȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ Ȑ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȊ), ȕȍȎȍȓȐ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȝ, ȜțȕȒȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȧȝ ȌȈȘȊȐȕȖȊșȒȖȑ ȓȖȋȐȒȐ1. ǷȘȐ ȥȚȖȔ ȌȍȔȖȕșȚȘȐȘțȍȔȖȍ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ ȕȍ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍȔ ȗȘȖșȚȣȝ ȚȍȔȗȖȘȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȖȊ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȔȖȋțȚ ȉȣȚȤ șȊȍȌȍȕȣ Ȓ ȚȈȒȐȔ șȖȉȣȚȐȧȔ, ȒȈȒ ȔțȚȈȞȐȧ2.

Ǫ ȖȚȓȐȟȐȍ ȖȚ ȗȘȖșȚȣȝ Ȑ țșȓȖȎȕȍȕȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ, Ȗ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȉțȌȍȚ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚȤșȧ ȟțȚȤ ȌȈȓȍȍ, Ȋ ǹǨǹ ȎȍȓȈȍȔȣȍ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȍ Ȑ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ șȚȈȕȖȊȧȚșȧ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȖȔ ȘȍȒțȘșȐȊȕȣȝ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ ȔȕȖȎȍșȚȊȈ șȖȉȣȚȐȑ Ȑ ȔȍȝȈȕȐȏȔȖȊ, ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȍȔȣȝ «...ȕȍ ȒȈȒ ȗȍȘȍȔȍȕȕȈȧ, ȕȖ ȒȈȒ ȖȞȍȕȒȈ șȚȘțȒȚțȘȣ, ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ Ȑ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȏȈȊȐșȐȔȖșȚȐ ȒȈțȏȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȖȊ»3. ǬȍȔȖȕșȚȘȐȘțȍȔȖȍ ǹǨǹ ȈȌȈȗȚȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȍ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ, ȉțȌțȟȐ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȖȔ ȘȈȏȕȖȖȉȘȈȏȕȣȝ Ȑ șȓȖȎȕȣȝ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ, ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ șȒȖȘȍȍ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȖȔ ȒȖȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȐ ȈȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȐ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȖȊ, ȕȍȎȍȓȐ ȒȖȕȒțȘȍȕȞȐȐ4. ǹǨǹ, ȒȈȒ ȘȍȒțȘșȐȊȕȖ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊțȦȡȈȧ șȍȚȤ ȈȋȍȕȚȖȊ, ȖȉȓȈȌȈȦȡȈȧ țȔȍȘȍȕȕȖȑ șȊȧȏȕȖșȚȤȦ, ȈȌȈȗȚȐȘțȍȚ ȟȍȘȍȏ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȣ șȈȔȖȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ șȚȘțȒȚțȘț Ȑ ȜțȕȒȞȐȐ ȈȋȍȕȚȖȊ Ȑ șȐșȚȍȔȣ Ȋ ȞȍȓȖȔ. Ǫ ȥȚȖȔ șȓțȟȈȍ ȖȉȣȟȕȖ ȋȖȊȖȘȧȚ Ȗȉ ȥȔȍȘȋȍȕȞȐȐ Ȑ ȌȍȔȖȕșȚȘȈȞȐȐ ǹǨǹ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖ ȌȘțȋȖȋȖ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ Ȑ șȊȖȑșȚȊ, ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȣȔ Ȑ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ șȊȧȏȈȕȕȣȝ ș ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧȔȐ șȘȍȌȣ5. ǺȍȖȘȐȧ ǹǨǹ ȜȖȒțșȐȘțȍȚșȧ șȒȖȘȍȍ ȕȈ ȔȍȝȈȕȐȏȔȈȝ ȥȔȍȘȋȍȕȞȐȐ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȗȘȍȌȔȍȚȖȔ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȕȐȑ șȚȈȕȖȊȧȚșȧ ȚȈȒȐȍ ȚȍȔȣ, ȒȈȒ ȐȏȔȍȕȧȦȡȈȧ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȈ șȓȖȎȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ ȐȓȐ ȥȜȜȍȒȚ ȊȖȏȔțȡȍȕȐȑ Ȋ șȓȖȎȕȖȑ șȍȚȐ. ǪȣȠȍ ȉȣȓȐ ȒȘȈȚȒȖ ȘȈșșȔȖȚȘȍȕȣ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȜȐȓȖșȖȜșȒȐȍ Ȑ ȖȉȡȍșȐșȚȍȔȕȣȍ ȈșȗȍȒȚȣ ȥȔȍȘȋȍȕȞȐȐ. ǺȈȒȎȍ șȓȍȌțȍȚ ȖȚȔȍȚȐȚȤ, ȟȚȖ, ȕȍșȔȖȚȘȧ ȕȈ ȠȐȘȖȒȖȍ țȗȖȚȘȍȉȓȍȕȐȍ, ȚȍȘȔȐȕ ȌȖ șȐȝ ȗȖȘ ȟȍȚȒȖ ȕȍ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕ6.

ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, ȚȍȖȘȐȧ ǹǨǹ ȕȍ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȍȚ ȒȈțȏȈȓȤȕȖșȚȤ Ȋ ȚȍȘȔȐȕȈȝ șȚȈȉȐȓȤȕȣȝ, ȗȖșȚȖȧȕȕȣȝ ȊȏȈȐȔȖșȊȧȏȍȑ ȔȍȎȌț ȗȍȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȔȐ, ȒȈȒ ȗȖșȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȤȕȖșȚȤ șȓȍȌțȦȡȐȝ ȌȘțȋ ȏȈ ȌȘțȋȖȔ șȖȉȣȚȐȑ – ȓȖȋȐȒȈ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ ȓȍȎȐȚ Ȋ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȍșȚȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȖȚȉȖȘȈ. ǹȒȖȘȍȍ, ȖȕȈ ȖȗȐșȣȊȈȍȚ ȒȈțȏȈȓȤȕȖșȚȤ ȒȈȒ ȥȔȍȘȋȍȚȕȖșȚȤ Ȑ

1 Marion, Russ and Mary Uhl-Bien. “Complexity theory and al-Qaeda: Examining complex leadership,” Emergence: A Journal of Complexity Issues in Organizations and Management, Vol. 5, , No. 1, 2003, pp. 56-78. 12 January 2011. http://www.informaworld.com/index/787462205.pdf.

2 Marion Russ. “Complexity in Organizations: A Paradigm Shift,” in Sengupta A. (ed.). Chaos, Nonlinearity, Complexity. The Dynamical Paradigm of Nature. Berlin: Springer-Verlag Heidelberg, 2006, pp. 247.

3 Pawson, Ray and Nick Tilley. Realistic evaluation. London: Sage Publications, 1997.

4 Margulis, L. and Sagan, D. Microcosmos: Four Billion Years of Evolution From Our Microbial Ancestors. New York: Summit Books, 1986.

5 Kauffman, S. A. At home in the universe: The search for the laws of self-organization and complexity. New York: Oxford University Press, 1995;

Fromm, Jochen. “Types and Forms of Emergence,” Distributed Systems Group, Kassel, Germany: Kassel University Press, 2005. 12 January 2011. http://arxiv.org/pdf/nlin/0506028.

6 Johnson, Steven. Emergence: The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, Cities, and Software. London: Penguin Books, 2001;

Bedau, M.A. “Downward causation and the autonomy of weak emergence,” Principia, Vol 6, 2002, pp. 5-50. 12 January 2011. <http://www.reed.edu/~mab/papers/principia.pdf>;

Damper, Robert I. “Emergence and Levels of Abstraction,” Editorial for the Special Issue on “Emergent Properties of Complex Systems,” International Journal of Systems Science, Vol. 31, No. 7, 2000, pp. 811-818.

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ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȜțȕȒȞȐȦ șȓȖȎȕȣȝ ȕȍȑȘȖȗȖȌȖȉȕȣȝ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ. ǷȘȖȞȍșșȣ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ Ǹțșș ǴȈȘȐȖȕ (Russ Marion) Ȑ ǴȍȘȐ ǻȝȓ-ǩȤȍȕ (Mary Uhl-Bien) ȖȗȐșȣȊȈȦȚ Ȋ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ ȘȍȒțȘșȐȊȕȖȑ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ (recursion theory)1. ǸȍȒțȘșȐȊȕȈȧ ȒȈțȏȈȓȤȕȖșȚȤ ȐȔȍȍȚ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȖȍ șȝȖȌșȚȊȖ ș ȓȖȋȐȒȖȑ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȈ (process logic), ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ ȐșȝȖȌȐȚ Ȑȏ ȚȖȋȖ, ȟȚȖ șțȡȍșȚȊțȍȚ ȒȈțȏȈȓȤȕȈȧ ȞȍȗȤ șȖȉȣȚȐȑ (ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ șȓțȟȈȑȕȈȧ), ȖȗȐșȣȊȈȦȡȈȧ ȗȘȖȞȍșș. ǶȌȕȈȒȖ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȒȈ ȘȍȒțȘșȐȊȕȖȑ ȒȈțȏȈȓȤȕȖșȚȐ ȕȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȖȉȢȧșȕȍȕȈ Ȋ ȚȍȘȔȐȕȈȝ ȘȈȏȊȖȘȈȟȐȊȈȕȐȧ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȖ-ȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȝ (temporal-linear) șȖȉȣȚȐȑ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȖȌȕȖ șȖȉȣȚȐȍ șȓȍȌțȍȚ ȏȈ ȌȘțȋȐȔ. ǽȖȚȧ șȖȉȣȚȐȧ ȘȈȏȊȖȘȈȟȐȊȈȦȚșȧ ȊȕțȚȘȐ ȗȖȚȖȒȈ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ, ȚȍȖȘȐȧ ǹǨǹ ȜȖȒțșȐȘțȍȚșȧ șȒȖȘȍȍ ȕȈ ȐȕȚȍȘȈȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȐ, ȕȍȎȍȓȐ ȗȖșȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȤȕȖșȚȐ Ȑ ȒȈțȏȈȓȤȕȖșȚȐ2.

1.2 ǹȖșȚȖȧȕȐȧ Ȑ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ șȓȖȎȕȣȝ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ

ǶȌȕȖȑ Ȑȏ ȊȈȎȕȍȑȠȐȝ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘȐșȚȐȒ șȓȖȎȕȣȝ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȔȕȖȋȖȖȉȘȈȏȐȍ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȑ Ȑ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȖȕȐ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȌȍȔȖȕșȚȘȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ. Ǫ ȘȧȌȍ șȓțȟȈȍȊ ǹǨǹ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȊȍșȚȐ șȍȉȧ ȒȈȒ ȗȖȓȕȖșȚȤȦ ȌȍȚȍȘȔȐȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȈȧ («ȔȍȝȈȕȐȟȍșȒȈȧ»), Ȋ ȌȘțȋȐȝ – ȒȈȒ șȚȖȝȈșȚȐȟȍșȒȈȧ («ȚȍȘȔȖȌȐȕȈȔȐȟȍșȒȈȧ») șȐșȚȍȔȈ, Ȍȓȧ ȖȗȐșȈȕȐȧ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȦȚșȧ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȐȔȣ ȝȖȘȖȠȖ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȈȕȕȣȍ ȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȣȍ ȔȍȚȖȌȣ ȈȕȈȓȐȏȈ3. ǶȌȕȈȒȖ ȕȈ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȖȑ șȚȈȌȐȐ șȊȖȍȋȖ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȧ ǹǨǹ ȕȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ șȊȍȌȍȕȈ Ȓ «ȔȍȝȈȕȐȟȍșȒȖȑ» ȐȓȐ «ȚȍȘȔȖȌȐȕȈȔȐȟȍșȒȖȑ» șȐșȚȍȔȍ Ȑ ȌȍȔȖȕșȚȘȐȘțȍȚ șȓȖȎȕȖȍ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ. ȅȚȖ ȌȍȓȈȍȚ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȣȔ ȊȊȍșȚȐ ȗȖȕȧȚȐȍ ȕȍșȒȖȓȤȒȐȝ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȑ (șȚȈȌȐȑ) ǹǨǹ, ȒȖȋȌȈ șȓȖȎȕȖȍ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ ȌȍȔȖȕșȚȘȐȘțȍȚșȧ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȕȈ ȖȌȕȖȑ – șȓȖȎȕȖȑ șȚȈȌȐȐ ȐȓȐ ȘȍȋȐȖȕȍ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ. ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, ȗȖ ȈȕȈȓȖȋȐȐ ș ȚȘȍȔȧ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȧȔȐ ȔȈȚȍȘȐȐ – ȚȊȍȘȌȖȍ, ȎȐȌȒȖȍ Ȑ ȋȈȏȖȖȉȘȈȏȕȖȍ – ǹǨǹ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȕȈȝȖȌȐȚȤșȧ Ȋ ȗȘȖșȚȖȔ, țșȓȖȎȕȍȕȕȖȔ Ȑ șȓȖȎȕȖȔ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ. ǷȖȗȈȌȈȕȐȍ ǹǨǹ Ȋ ȘȍȋȐȖȕ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȍȚșȧ ȒȈȒ ȔȐȒȘȖșȒȖȗȐȟȍșȒȐȔȐ ȐȕȊȈȘȐȈȕȚȈȔȐ șȐșȚȍȔȣ (ȚȈȒȐȔȐ, ȒȈȒ ȗȈȘȈȔȍȚȘ șȊȧȏȕȖșȚȐ, șȐȓȈ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ), ȚȈȒ Ȑ șȘȍȌȖȑ4.

ǪȖȏȘȈșȚȈȦȡȈȧ șȐȓȈ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ, țȊȍȓȐȟȍȕȐȍ șȊȧȏȕȖșȚȐ, Ȉ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȍ șȘȍȌȣ ȚȖȓȒȈȦȚ ǹǨǹ Ȑȏ ȗȘȖșȚȖȑ șȚȈȌȐȐ Ȓ țșȓȖȎȕȍȕȕȖȑ, Ȉ ȏȈȚȍȔ Ȑ Ȓ șȓȖȎȕȖȑ. ǷȍȘȍșȍȟȍȕȐȍ ȗȈȘȈȔȍȚȘȈ șȊȧȏȕȖșȚȐ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȖȋȖ «șȚȈȚȐșȚȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ» ȗȖȘȖȋȈ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚ Ȓ ȚȖȔț, ȟȚȖ șȐșȚȍȔȈ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ȏȈ «ȒȘȖȔȒȖȑ ȝȈȖșȈ», ȚȍȘȧȍȚ șȊȖȦ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȟȍșȒțȦ țȕȐȒȈȓȤȕȖșȚȤ Ȑ ȕȍȗȖȊȚȖȘȐȔȖșȚȤ, ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȦȡțȦșȧ ȊȕțȚȘȍȕȕȐȔȐ șȊȧȏȧȔȐ Ȑ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧȔȐ, Ȑ ȗȍȘȍȝȖȌȐȚ Ȋ ȘȈȏȘȧȌ șȚȖȝȈșȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ șȐșȚȍȔ, ȗȖȌȟȐȕȧȦȡȐȝșȧ ȏȈȒȖȕȈȔ ȚȍȘȔȖȌȐȕȈȔȐȒȐ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȍȌȐȕșȚȊȍȕȕȣȔȐ șȐșȚȍȔȕȣȔȐ ȐȕȊȈ-

1 Marion, Complexity theory and al-Qaeda, pp. 56-78. 2 Marion, Complexity in Organizations, p. 251.

3 Baeyer, H. C. von. Maxwell’s Demon. New York: Random House, 1998. 4 Bertelle et al, Complex Systems and Self-organization Modelling, pp. 4-5.

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ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȘȐȈȕȚȈȔȐ șȚȈȕȖȊȧȚșȧ ȥȕȍȘȋȐȧ Ȑ ȐȔȗțȓȤș. ǬȐȕȈȔȐȒȈ șȐșȚȍȔȣ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ ȌȍȓȈȍȚ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣȔ ȚȈȒȖȑ ȗȍȘȍȝȖȌ, ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȖȗȐșȈȕȈ șȓȍȌțȦȡȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ. ǷȘȐ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȣȝ țșȓȖȊȐȧȝ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ǹǨǹ ȕȈȝȖȌȐȚșȧ Ȋ ȘȍȋȐȖȕȍ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ, ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘȐșȚȐȟȍșȒȖȍ ȊȘȍȔȧ ȊȕțȚȘȍȕȕȐȝ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ ȔȍȎȌț ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȈȔȐ șȐșȚȍȔȣ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȒȖȘȖȟȍ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘȐșȚȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȒȈșȒȈȌȕȖȋȖ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ șȘȍȌȣ. DzȈȒ șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍ, ȌȐȕȈȔȐȒȈ ȊȕțȚȘȍȕȕȐȝ ȥȕȍȘȋȍȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȗȖȚȖȒȖȊ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȗȍȘȍȝȓȍșȚȣȊȈȍȚ ȊȕȍȠȕȐȍ, ȚȖȓȒȈȧ ȍȍ ȏȈ «ȒȘȖȔȒț ȝȈȖșȈ» Ȓ ȚȍȘȔȖȌȐȕȈȔȐȟȍșȒȖȔț șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȦ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘȐșȚȐȟȍșȒȖȍ ȊȘȍȔȧ ȊȕțȚȘȍȕȕȐȝ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȚȈȒȐȔ ȒȖȘȖȚȒȐȔ, ȟȚȖȊȕțȚȘȍȕȕȧȧȌȐȕȈȔȐȒȈșȐșȚȍȔȣșȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȥȘȋȖȌȐȟȍșȒȖȑ1.

Ǫ ȚȍȘȔȐȕȈȝ ȜȈȏȖȊȖȋȖ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȈ ȗȍȘȍȝȖȌ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȖȚ ȗȘȖșȚȖȑ Ȓ țșȓȖȎȕȍȕȕȖȑ, Ȉ ȏȈȚȍȔ Ȑ șȓȖȎȕȖȑ șȚȈȌȐȐ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘȐȏțȍȚșȧ ȘȈșȠȐȘȍȕȐȍȔ «ȉȈșșȍȑȕȖȊ ȗȘȐȚȧȎȍȕȐȧ», ȒȖȋȌȈ ȚȘȈȍȒȚȖȘȐȐ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȖȝȊȈȚȣȊȈȦȚ Ȋșȍ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȍ Ȑ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȍ țȟȈșȚȒȐ ȜȈȏȖȊȖȋȖ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȈ, ȊȒȓȦȟȈȧ, Ȋ ȒȖȕȍȟȕȖȔ șȟȍȚȍ, ȕȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȌȈȓȍȒȐȍ ȖȚ ȘȈȊȕȖȊȍșȐȧ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȧ, ȕȖ Ȑ ȝȈȖș2. ǩȖȓȍȍ ȚȖȋȖ, Ȋ ȘȍȋȐȖȕȍ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ Ȋ ȜȈȏȖȊȖȔ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȍ ǹǨǹ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣȔ ȊȣȌȍȓȍȕȐȍ ȖȚȌȍȓȤȕȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȕȖȑ ȚȘȈȍȒȚȖȘȐȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȕȍȘȈȏȓȐȟȐȔȖȑ ȖȚ șȖșȍȌȕȐȝ, ȕȖ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȖȋȖ ȔȕȖȎȍșȚȊȈ (ȗțȟȒȈ) ȚȘȈȍȒȚȖȘȐȑ – ȔȈȕȐȜȖȓȤȌȖȊ (manifolds)3. DzȈȒșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍ, ȊȘȍȋȐȖȕȍșȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ǹǨǹ ȕȈ ȔȐȒȘȖțȘȖȊȕȍ ȏȈȗȘȍȡȈȍȚ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȤ ȖȗȐșȈȕȐȧ Ȑ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ ȖȚȌȍȓȤȕȖȑșȐșȚȍȔȕȖȑ ȚȘȈȍȒȚȖȘȐȐ, ȚȈȒȒȈȒȖȚșțȚșȚȊțȍȚȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȖȕȕȣȑ ȐȥȕȍȘȋȍȚȐȟȍșȒȐȑ ȗȖȚȖȒȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȔȖȎȕȖ ȉȣȓȖ ȉȣ ȐȌȍȕȚȐȜȐȞȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ș ȒȖȕȒȘȍȚȕȖȑ ȚȘȈȍȒȚȖȘȐȍȑ. Ǫ ȥȚȖȔ șȔȣșȓȍ ǹǨǹ Ȋ ȘȍȋȐȖȕȍ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȕȈȟȐȕȈȍȚ ȗȘȐȖȉȘȍȚȈȚȤ ȟȍȘȚȣ ȚȍȘȔȖȌȐȕȈȔȐȟȍșȒȐȝ șȐșȚȍȔ, Ȉ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȍ ȐȓȐ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȍ ȕȈ șȐșȚȍȔț șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣȔ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȕȈ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȟȍșȒȐ ȐȕȊȈȘȐȈȕȚȕȣȝ ȔȈȕȐȜȖȓȤȌȖȊ, ȈșșȖȞȐȐȘțȦȡȐȝșȧȕȍșȖȚȌȍȓȤȕȖȑ, ȕȖȔȕȖȎȍșȚȊȖȔȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣȝȚȘȈȍȒȚȖȘȐȑ4.

1.3 ǴȍȚȖȌȣ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ șȓȖȎȕȣȔȐ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȣȔȐ șȐșȚȍȔȈȔȐ

ǼțȕȌȈȔȍȕȚȈȓȤȕȣȔ șȊȖȑșȚȊȖȔ ǹǨǹ, ȕȈȝȖȌȧȡȍȑșȧ Ȋ ȘȍȋȐȖȕȍ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ, ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȚȖ, ȟȚȖ ȍȍ șȐșȚȍȔȕȈȧ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȒȈ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȍȚșȧ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖ ȔȍȕȤȠȐȔ ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȖȔ șȚȍȗȍȕȍȑ șȊȖȉȖȌȣ. Ǭȓȧ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ ȥȚȖ ȖȏȕȈȟȈȍȚ, ȟȚȖ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȍ șȐșȚȍȔȖȑ Ȋ ȘȍȋȐȖȕȍ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ ȟȍȘȍȏ ȔȈȕȐȗțȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȖȋȘȈ-

1 Ibid, pp. 4-5.

2 Hilborn, R. C. Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics: An Introduction for Scientists and Engineers. Second Edition, Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2000;

Bar-Yam, Y. Dynamics of Complex Systems. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1997. 12 January 2011. http://necsi.org/publications/dcs/Bar-YamReadings.pdf.

3 Cotsaftis, M. “Recent Advances in Control of Complex Systems,” Survey Lecture, Proc. ESDA’96, Montpellier, France, ASME, Vol. I, 1996, p. 1;

Cotsaftis, M. “Vision Limitation for Robot Deformation Control,” Proc. 5th International Conference on Mechatronics and Machine Vision in Practice (M2VIP), Nanjing, China, 1998, p. 393.

4 Hirsch, M., C. Pugh and M. Shub. Invariant Manifolds. Lecture Notes in Mathematics, Vol. 583, Berlin: SpringerVerlag, 1977.

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ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȕȐȟȍȕȕȣȔ ȟȐșȓȖȔ șȚȍȗȍȕȍȑ șȊȖȉȖȌȣ. ǷȘȐȟȍȔ «șȖȒȘȈȡȍȕȐȍ» șȚȍȗȍȕȍȑ șȊȖȉȖȌȣ ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȐȚ ȏȈ șȟȍȚ «ȘȍȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ» șȐșȚȍȔȣ, ȚȖ ȍșȚȤ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȖȊ șȈȔȖȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ. ǷȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ ǹǨǹ Ȋ ȘȍȋȐȖȕȍ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ ȖȗȐșȈȚȤ ȕȈ ȖșȕȖȊȍ «ȔȍȝȈȕȐȟȍșȒȖȑ» ȔȖȌȍȓȐ, ȖȗȐȘȈȦȡȍȑșȧ ȕȈ ȎȍșȚȒțȦ șȚȘțȒȚțȘț ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȖȊ Ȑ șȊȧȏȍȑ ȔȍȎȌț ȕȐȔȐ, ȐȓȐ «ȚȍȘȔȖȌȐȕȈȔȐȟȍșȒȖȑ», ȐȋȕȖȘȐȘțȦȡȍȑ ȊȕțȚȘȍȕȕȦȦ șȚȘțȒȚțȘț șȐșȚȍȔȣ Ȑ ȖȗȍȘȐȘțȦȡțȦ ȔȈȒȘȖȗȈȘȈȔȍȚȘȈȔȐ.

Ǭȓȧ ȖȗȐșȈȕȐȧ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȝ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȖȊ Ȋ ǹǨǹ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȧȦȚșȧ ȔȍȚȖȌȣ Ȑ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȣ, ȘȈȏȘȈȉȈȚȣȊȈȍȔȣȍ Ȋ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ ȒȈȒ ȗȘȐȒȓȈȌȕȖȑ ȔȈȚȍȔȈȚȐȒȐ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ. Ǫ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ ȗȘȐȒȓȈȌȕȖȑ ȔȈȚȍȔȈȚȐȒȐ șȓȖȎȕȣȍ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȣȍ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȦȚ șȖȉȖȑ ȖȉȡȐȑ șȓțȟȈȑ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȝ ȕȍ ȐȕȚȍȋȘȐȘțȍȔȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ, ȌȖșȚȐȋȠȐȝ ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ ȊȣșȖȒȖȋȖ ȏȕȈȟȍȕȐȧ ȗȈȘȈȔȍȚȘȈ șȊȧȏȕȖșȚȐ1. ǺȍȖȘȐȧ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȍȚ ȕȍșȒȖȓȤȒȖ ȌȘțȋȖȑ ȈșȗȍȒȚ ǹǨǹ, ȕȈȝȖȌȧȡȐȝșȧ Ȋ șȓȖȎȕȖȑ șȚȈȌȐȐ, Ȑ Ȋ șȐȓț ȘȧȌȈ ȖȉșȚȖȧȚȍȓȤșȚȊ Ȑ șȖȖȉȘȈȎȍȕȐȑ ȍȍ ȔȍȚȖȌȣ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȔȕȖȋȖȖȉȍȡȈȦȡȐȔȐ ȗȘȐ ȘȈșșȔȖȚȘȍȕȐȐ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ. ǺȍȖȘȐȧ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ ȗȘȍȌȓȈȋȈȍȚ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȚȤ ǹǨǹ ȒȈȒ ȞȍȓȖșȚȕȖșȚȤ Ȑ ȘȍȠȈȍȚ ȏȈȌȈȟț ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ ȎȍȓȈȍȔȣȝ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȊ Ȑ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ ȟȍȘȍȏ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȍ ȕȈ ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȕȖȍ ȔȕȖȎȍșȚȊȖ țȗȘȈȊȓȧȦȡȐȝȗȈȘȈȔȍȚȘȖȊ, ȕȈȝȖȌȧȡȐȝșȧ, ȊȚȖȔ ȟȐșȓȍ, ȐȊȖȊȕȍȠȕȍȑșȘȍȌȍ2.

ǬȍȔȖȕșȚȘȈȞȐȍȑ ȌȈȕȕȖȋȖ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȈ ȔȖȋțȚ șȓțȎȐȚȤ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȗȈșȚțȠȤȍȑ șȖȉȈȒȐ ȗȖ «țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȦ» șȚȈȌȖȔ. ǹȚȈȌȖ, Ȋ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȔ ȕȈȝȖȌȧȚșȧ n ȎȐȊȖȚȕȣȝ, ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȍȚ șȖȉȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔț, ȒȈȒ ȔȐȕȐȔțȔ, ș 2n șȚȍȗȍȕȧȔȐ șȊȖȉȖȌȣ, ȚȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȒȈȎȌȖȍ Ȑȏ ȎȐȊȖȚȕȣȝ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȗȍȘȍȔȍȡȈȚȤșȧ Ȋ ȌȊțȔȍȘȕȖȑ ȗȓȖșȒȖșȚȐ ȗȈșȚȉȐȡȈ. ǹȖȉȈȒȈ, ȖȉȓȈȌȈȧ ȊșȍȋȖ 2 șȚȍȗȍȕȧȔȐ șȊȖȉȖȌȣ, ȕȍ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȒȖȕȚȘȖȓȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȒȈȎȌȖȍ ȎȐȊȖȚȕȖȍ Ȋ ȖȚȌȍȓȤȕȖșȚȐ, Ȑ ȍȍ ȗȍȘȊȣȔ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȍȔ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ șȖȉȐȘȈȕȐȍ șȚȈȌȈ, ȖȉȓȈȌȈȦȡȍȋȖ ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖȑ șȚȍȗȍȕȤȦ șȊȧȏȕȖșȚȐ Ȑ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȔȍȎȌț ȎȐȊȖȚȕȣȔȐ, ȟȚȖȉȣ ȐșȝȖȌȕȈȧ țșȓȖȎȕȍȕȕȈȧ șȐșȚȍȔȈ ȖȚȌȍȓȤȕȣȝ Ȑ ȔȈȓȖ șȊȧȏȈȕȕȣȝ ȎȐȊȖȚȕȣȝ ȗȘȍȊȘȈȚȐȓȈșȤ Ȋ șȓȖȎȕțȦ. ǸȍȠȍȕȐȍ ȌȈȕȕȖȑ ȏȈȌȈȟȐ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚ Ȓ ȘȍȏȒȖȔț șȖȒȘȈȡȍȕȐȦ șȚȍȗȍȕȍȑ șȊȖȉȖȌȣ Ȑ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȍȚ șȖȉȈȒȍ ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȖ țȗȘȈȊȓȧȚȤ șȚȈȌȖȔ. ǵȈȐȉȖȓȍȍ ȐȏțȔȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȔ ȊȖ ȊșȍȔ ȊȣȠȍȖȗȐșȈȕȕȖȔ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ șȗȖșȖȉȕȖșȚȤ șȖȉȈȒȐ ȌȍȔȖȕșȚȘȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȚȈȒȖȍ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ, Ȑ, ȏȈȟȈșȚțȦ, ȖȚȒȈȏ ȘȈȉȖȚȈȚȤ ș ȎȐȊȖȚȕȣȔȐ, ȖȚȉȐȊȈȦȡȐȔȐ ȖȚ șȚȈȌȈ, ȚȖ ȍșȚȤ ȕȍ ȎȍȓȈȦȡȐȔȐ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚȤșȧ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȖȔ ǹǨǹ Ȋ ȘȍȋȐȖȕȍ șȓȖȎȕȖșȚȐ3.

ǹȖȏȌȈȕȐȍ ȖȘțȌȐȑ ȚȘțȌȈ, Ȉ ȏȈȚȍȔ Ȑ ȔȈȠȐȕ șȚȈȓȖ ȈȒȚȖȔ ȌȍȓȍȋȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȘȧȌȈ ȜțȕȒȞȐȑ ȖȚ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȒȈ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚț Ȑ ȖȋȘȖȔȕȣȔ ȗȘȖȘȣȊȖȔ, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȐȊȠȐȔ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖ ȘȈșȠȐȘȐȚȤ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȟȍșȚȊȈ ȗȖ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȦ ȕȈ ȍșȚȍșȚȊȍȕȕțȦ șȘȍȌț Ȑ șȖȏȌȈȕȐȦ ȐșȒțșșȚȊȍȕȕȖȑ – ȞȐȊȐȓȐȏȈȞȐȐ Ȑ ȒțȓȤȚțȘȣ. ǷȖȧȊȓȍȕȐȍ ȐȕȜȖȘ-

1 Goriely, Alain. Integrability and Nonintegrability of Dynamical Systems. River Edge, NJ: World Scientific Publishing Company, 2001.

2 Bertelle et al, Complex Systems and Self-organization Modeling, p. 9. 3 Ibid, p. 10.

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ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȔȈȞȐȖȕȕȣȝ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȑ Ȑ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ ǹǨǹ ȗȖȌȊȖȌȐȚ Ȓ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖșȚȐ ȗȘȍȖȌȖȓȍȕȐȧ ȕȖȊȖȋȖ ȉȈȘȤȍȘȈ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȒ ȗȖȓȕȖșȚȤȦ ȊȣȒȓȦȟȈȍȚșȧ Ȑȏ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȈ ȜȖȘȔȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ șȐșȚȍȔȕȖȑ ȚȘȈȍȒȚȖȘȐȐ, ȖșȚȈȊȓȧȧ ȏȈ șȖȉȖȑ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȜțȕȒȞȐȐ ȘȍȋțȓȧȚȖȘȈ. Ǫ șȊȖȍ ȊȘȍȔȧ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȈ șȚȖȧȓȈ ȗȍȘȍȌ ȈȕȈȓȖȋȐȟȕȣȔ ȉȈȘȤȍȘȖȔ Ȑ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȣȔ șȒȈȟȒȖȔ, șȊȧȏȈȕȕȣȔ ș ȊȖȏȕȐȒȕȖȊȍȕȐȍȔ ȋȍȕȕȖȑ ȗȈȔȧȚȐ Ȑ ȔȖȓȍȒțȓ ǬǵDz, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȐȊȠȐȝ ȎȐȊȣȔ șȐșȚȍȔȈȔ șȚȈȚȤ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȕȍȏȈȊȐșȐȔȣȔȐ. ǽȖȚȧ ȌȐșșȐȗȈȚȐȊȕȈȧ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȈ ȎȐȊȣȝ șȚȘțȒȚțȘ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚ Ȓ ȒȖȕȍȟȕȖșȚȐ ȎȐȏȕȐ, ȗȘȐȘȖȌȈ «ȉȖȘȍȚșȧ» ș ȌȈȕȕȣȔ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȐȍȔ ȟȍȘȍȏ ȔȍȝȈȕȐȏȔ ȘȍȗȘȖȌțȒȞȐȐ. Ǫ ȥȚȖȔ șȔȣșȓȍ șȓȖȎȕȣȍ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȣȔ ȥȚȈȗȖȔ ȗȘȐ ȗȍȘȍȝȖȌȍ ȖȚ ȗȍȘȊȐȟȕȣȝ ȜȖȘȔ ȎȐȏȕȐ Ȓ ȔȖȉȐȓȤȕȖșȚȐ Ȑ ȕȍȏȈȊȐșȐȔȖșȚȐ, ȈȏȈȚȍȔȐȔȣȠȓȍȕȐȦ.

ǷȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ ȚȖȋȖ, ȒȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ Ȑȏ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȈȘȕȣȝ ȒȐȘȗȐȟȐȒȖȊ, ȖȉȓȈȌȈȦȡȐȝ ȊȣșȖȒȖȑ ȘȖȉȈșȚȕȖșȚȤȦ Ȑ ȐȏȉȣȚȖȟȕȖșȚȤȦ Ȑ ȖȉȘȈȉȈȚȣȊȈȦȡȐȝ ȒȈȒ ȥȕȍȘȋȍȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȖȕȕȣȍ ȗȖȚȖȒȐ, ȊȣșȚȘȈȐȊȈȍȚșȧ ǹǨǹ, ȔȖȎȍȚ șȚȈȚȤ ȖșȕȖȊȖȑ Ȍȓȧ ȕȈțȟȕȖȋȖ Ȑ ȚȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȗȘȖȘȣȊȖȊ 21 ȊȍȒȈ. ǷȘȐ ȥȚȖȔ ȒȓȈșșȐȟȍșȒȈȧ ȏȈȌȈȟȈ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ1, șȊȧȏȈȕȕȈȧ ș ȔȈȕȐȗțȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍȔ ȓȖȒȈȓȤȕȣȔȐ ȚȘȈȍȒȚȖȘȐȧȔȐ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȈ Ȑ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ ȕȈ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȣȝ ȞȐȒȓȖȊ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ Ȑ ȋȈȘȈȕȚȐȘțȦȡȈȧ șȝȖȌȐȔȖșȚȤ ȒȖȕȍȟȕȣȝ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȑ șȐșȚȍȔȣ Ȓ ȐȕȚȍȘȍșțȦȡȐȔ șȐșȚȍȔȕȣȔ ȚȘȈȍȒȚȖȘȐȧȔ, șȔȍȕȧȍȚșȧ ȌȘțȋȖȑ. ǯȈȌȈȟȈ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ șȊȖȌȐȚșȧ ȕȍ Ȓ șȓȍȌȖȊȈȕȐȦ ȏȈȘȈȕȍȍ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȍȔȖȑ, «ȘȍȋțȓȐȘțȍȔȖȑ» șȐșȚȍȔȕȖȑ ȚȘȈȍȒȚȖȘȐȐ, ȕȖ șȖȏȌȈȕȐȦ țșȓȖȊȐȑ Ȍȓȧ ȕȈȝȖȎȌȍȕȐȧ ȚȘȈȍȒȚȖȘȐȐ șȐșȚȍȔȣ Ȋ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ ȔȈȕȐȜȖȓȤȌȈ, ȟȚȖ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȊȈȍȚșȧ, Ȋ ȚȖȔ ȟȐșȓȍ, ȟȍȘȍȏ ȥȔȍȘȋȍȕȞȐȦ Ȑ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȣ șȈȔȖȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ2. ȅȚȖ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣȔ ȟȍȘȍȏ ȌȍȓȍȋȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ șȐșȚȍȔȍ «ȐȕȚȍȓȓȍȒȚțȈȓȤȕȣȝ» ȜțȕȒȞȐȑ Ȑ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȑ, ȗȘȍȌȗȖȓȈȋȈȦȡȐȝ șȗȖșȖȉȕȖșȚȤ ȔȈȕȐȗțȓȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȕȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȥȕȍȘȋȍȚȐȟȍșȒȐȔȐ, ȕȖ Ȑ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȖȕȕȣȔȐ ȗȖȚȖȒȈȔȐ. ǺȍȘȔȐȕ «ȐȕȚȍȓȓȍȒȚțȈȓȤȕȣȍ»3 Ȋ ȌȈȕȕȖȔ șȓțȟȈȍ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȕȍ șȖȊșȍȔ ȒȖȘȘȍȒȚȕȣȔ Ȑ ȗȘȐȏȊȈȕ ȖȚȘȈȏȐȚȤ șȗȖșȖȉȕȖșȚȤ șȐșȚȍȔȣ șȈȔȖșȚȖȧȚȍȓȤȕȖ, ȉȍȏ ȊȕȍȠȕȐȝ țȗȘȈȊȓȧȦȡȐȝ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ ȊȣȉȐȘȈȚȤ șȐșȚȍȔȕțȦ ȚȘȈȍȒȚȖȘȐȦ, ȌȍȔȖȕșȚȘȐȘțȧ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȖȍ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ.

1 Lefschetz, S. Stability of Nonlinear Control Systems. New-York: Academic Press, 1965.

Burl, J. H. Linear Optimal Control, H2 and H Methods. Menlo Park, CA: Addison-Wesley Longman, 1999; Dullerud, G.E. and F. Paganini. A Course in Robust Control Theory: a Convex Approach. New-York: SpringerVerlag, 2000.

2 Cotsaftis, M. “From Trajectory Control to Task Control. Emergence of Self Organization in Complex Systems,” in Aziz-Alaoui, M.A. and C. Bertelle (eds.) Emergent Properties in Natural and Artificial Dynamical Systems. SpringerVerlag, 2006, pp. 3-22.

3 Antsaklis, P. J. and K. M. Passino. An Introduction to Intelligent and Autonomous Control, Norwell, MA: Kluwer Acad. Publ., 1993;

Brown, M. and C. Harris. Neuro Fuzzy Adaptive Modelling and Control. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1994; Kosko, B. Neural Networks and Fuzzy Systems: A Dynamical Systems Approach to Machine Intelligence. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1991.

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ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

2. ǩȈȏȖȊȣȍ ȈȚȘȐȉțȚȣ Ȑ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȒȈ șȓȖȎȕȣȝ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ

2.1 ǩȈȏȖȊȣȍ ȈȚȘȐȉțȚȣ șȓȖȎȕȣȝ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ

ǩȖȓȤȠȈȧ ȟȈșȚȤ ȕȈțȟȕȖȋȖ șȖȖȉȡȍșȚȊȈ, ȏȈȕȐȔȈȦȡȍȋȖșȧ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȕȐȍȔ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ, ȉțȌțȟȐ ȋțȔȈȕȐȚȈȘȐȧȔȐ, ȕȍ ȊȓȈȌȍȍȚ ȔȍȚȖȌȈȔȐ șȚȘȖȋȐȝ ȕȈțȒ, ȟȚȖ ȊȣȕțȎȌȈȍȚ ȕȈș ȌȈȚȤ ȒȘȈȚȒȖȍ ȖȗȐșȈȕȐȍ șȊȖȑșȚȊ Ȑ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ ǹǨǹ ȉȍȏ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȧȏȣȒȈ ȔȈȚȍȔȈȚȐȒȐ. ǹȓȖȎȕȣȍ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȣȍ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȔȖȋțȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȖȗȐșȈȕȣ ȕȈ ȖșȕȖȊȍ șȍȔȐ ȉȈȏȖȊȣȝ ȈȚȘȐȉțȚȖȊ, ȟȍȚȣȘȍ Ȑȏ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȖȚȕȖșȧȚșȧ Ȓ șȊȖȑșȚȊȈȔ – ȈȋȘȍȋȈȚȕȖșȚȤ, ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȤ, ȗȖȚȖȟȕȖșȚȤ Ȑ ȔȕȖȋȖȖȉȘȈȏȐȍ, Ȉ ȚȘȐ Ȓ ȔȍȝȈȕȐȏȔȈȔ – ȚȍȋȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ, ȊȕțȚȘȍȕȕȐȍ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ Ȑ șȚȘȖȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȍ ȉȓȖȒȐ1.

ǨȋȘȍȋȈȚȕȖșȚȤ. ǨȋȘȍȋȈȚȕȖșȚȤ (aggregation), ȓȍȎȈȡȈȧ Ȋ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȥȔȍȘȋȍȕȞȐȐ, «ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȍȚ ȥȔȍȘȋȍȕȞȐȦ șȓȖȎȕȖȋȖ ȠȐȘȖȒȖȔȈșȠȚȈȉȐȘțȍȔȖȋȖ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ Ȑȏ ȈȋȘȍȋȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȣȝ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ Ȕȍȕȍȍ șȓȖȎȕȣȝ ȈȋȍȕȚȖȊ… ǹȜȖȘȔȐȘȖȊȈȊȠȐȍșȧ ȚȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ ȈȋȘȍȋȈȚȣ ȔȖȋțȚ Ȋ șȊȖȦ ȖȟȍȘȍȌȤ ȊȣșȚțȗȈȚȤ Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ ȈȋȍȕȚȖȊ ȕȈ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȊȣșȖȒȖȔ țȘȖȊȕȍ ȔȍȚȈȈȋȍȕȚȖȊ»2. ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, ȈȋȘȍȋȈȚȕȖșȚȤ, ȓȍȎȈȡȈȧ Ȋ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȜȖȘȔȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȐȍȘȈȘȝȐȑ Ȋ ǹǨǹ, ȖȗȐȘȈȍȚșȧ ȕȈ ȥȔȍȘȋȍȕȞȐȦ Ȑ ȥȔȍȘȋȍȕȚȕȖȍ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ. ǷȘȐȟȍȔ ȕȈȌȖ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȚȤ, ȟȚȖ ȘȍȟȤ ȐȌȍȚ Ȗȉ ȐȍȘȈȘȝȐȐ șȓȖȎȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ, ȒȘȈȚȒȖȍ ȖȉșțȎȌȍȕȐȍ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ ȉȣȓȖ ȗȘȖȊȍȌȍȕȖ ȗȘȐ ȘȈșșȔȖȚȘȍȕȐȐ ȖșȕȖȊȕȣȝ ȗȘȐȕȞȐȗȖȊ Ȗȉȡȍȑ ȚȍȖȘȐȐșȐșȚȍȔ.

ǺȍȋȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ. ǷȍȘȊȣȔ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȍȔȣȔ ȔȍȝȈȕȐȏȔȖȔ ǹǨǹ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȚȍȋȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ (tagging), ȒȖȚȖȘȖȍ «ȗȖșȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȤȕȖ șȗȖșȖȉșȚȊțȍȚ ȜȖȘȔȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȦ ȈȋȘȍȋȈȚȖȊ. <…> ǽȖȘȖȠȖ ȐȏȊȍșȚȕȣȔ ȗȘȐȔȍȘȖȔ ȚȍȋȈ șȓțȎȐȚ ȉȈȕȕȍȘ ȐȓȐ ȜȓȈȋ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȍȚșȧ Ȍȓȧ șȗȓȖȟȍȕȐȧ ȓȐȟȕȖȋȖ șȖșȚȈȊȈ ȈȘȔȐȐ ȐȓȐ ȓȦȌȍȑ șȖ șȝȖȎȐȔȐ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȔȐ țȉȍȎȌȍȕȐȧȔȐ. <...> ǹǨǹ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȍȚ ȚȍȋȐ Ȍȓȧ ȔȈȕȐȗțȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ șȐȔȔȍȚȘȐȧȔȐ. <...> DzȓȈșșȐȟȍșȒȐȔ ȗȘȐȔȍȘȖȔ ȗȖȓȕȖȑ șȐȔȔȍȚȘȐȐ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ șȖȊȍȘȠȍȕȕȈȧ șȜȍȘȈ, ȕȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ, ȉȍȓȣȑ ȠȈȘ Ȋ ȉȐȓȤȧȘȌȍ. ǸȈșșȔȖȚȘȐȔ ȔȕȖȎȍșȚȊȖ ȠȈȘȖȊ ȕȈ ȉȐȓȤȧȘȌȕȖȔ șȚȖȓȍ, ȕȈȝȖȌȧȡȐȝșȧ Ȋ ȉȣșȚȘȖȔ ȌȊȐȎȍȕȐȐ <...> ȗȖșȓȍ șȐȓȤȕȖȋȖ “țȌȈȘȈ”. Ǵȣ ȕȍ ȔȖȎȍȔ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȐȚȤ ȖȚȌȍȓȤȕȣȍ ȠȈȘȣ, ȗȖȒȈ ȚȡȈȚȍȓȤȕȖ ȕȍ ȏȈȜȐȒșȐȘțȍȔ Ȑȝ ȚȘȈȍȒȚȖȘȐȐ. ǵȖ Ȕȣ ȔȖȎȍȔ ȘȈȏȘțȠȐȚȤ șȐȔȔȍȚȘȐȦ ȗȘȐ ȗȖȔȖȡȐ ȚȍȋȈ. ǭșȓȐ Ȕȣ ȖȚȔȍȚȐȔ ȖȌȐȕ Ȑȏ ȠȈȘȖȊ ȗȖȓȖșȒȖȑ, ȚȖ șȔȖȎȍȔ ȓȍȋȒȖ ȍȋȖ ȖȚȓȐȟȐȚȤ ȖȚ ȌȘțȋȐȝ, ȕȍșȔȖȚȘȧ ȕȈ ȍȋȖ ȌȊȐȎȍȕȐȍ. <...> ǺȍȋȐ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȚ ȈȋȍȕȚȈȔ ȊȣȉȐȘȈȚȤ

1 ǬȈȕȕȣȑ ȘȈȏȌȍȓ ȗȖȌȋȖȚȖȊȓȍȕ ȕȈ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȔȖȕȖȋȘȈȜȐȐ Czerwinski, Thomas. Coping with the Bounds: A NeoClausewitzean Primer. Washington, DC: Department of Defense Command and Control Research Program (CCRP) Publication Series, 3rd Edition Revised, 2008. 12 January 2011. http://www.dodccrp.org/files/Czerwinski_Coping.pdf.

2 Holland, Hidden Order, p. 11.

57

ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

șȘȍȌȐ ȈȋȍȕȚȖȊ ȐȓȐ ȖȉȢȍȒȚȖȊ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ, Ȋ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȖȔ șȓțȟȈȍ, ȉȣȓȐ ȉȣ ȕȍȘȈȏȓȐȟȐȔȣ, [Ȑ] ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȊȈȦȚ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȣȑ ȉȈȏȐș Ȍȓȧ ȜȐȓȤȚȘȈȞȐȐ, șȗȍȞȐȈȓȐȏȈȞȐȐ Ȑ ȒȖȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȐ. ȅȚȖ, Ȋ șȊȖȦ ȖȟȍȘȍȌȤ, ȊȍȌȍȚ Ȓ ȗȖȧȊȓȍȕȐȦ ȔȍȚȈȈȋȍȕȚȖȊ Ȑ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȑ, șȗȖșȖȉȕȖșȚȐ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȌȈȎȍ ȚȈȒȐȝ, ȒȈȒ țȌȍȘȎȈȕȐȍ șȊȖȐȝ ȒȖȔȗȖȕȍȕȚȖȊ, ȕȍȗȘȍȘȣȊȕȖ ȔȍȕȧȦȚșȧ. ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, ȚȍȋȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ – ȥȚȖ ȚȖȚ ȔȍȝȈȕȐȏȔ, ȗȘȐ ȗȖȔȖȡȐ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȋȖ ȜȖȘȔȐȘțȦȚșȧ ȐȍȘȈȘȝȐȐ șȓȖȎȕȣȝ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ – ȈȋȍȕȚ/ ȔȍȚȈȈȋȍȕȚ/ȔȍȚȈ-ȔȍȚȈȈȋȍȕȚ/…ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȧ»1.

ǵȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȤ. ǪȚȖȘȣȔ șȊȖȑșȚȊȖȔ ǹǨǹ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȤ. ǴȍȚȈȜȖȘȍ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȐ Ȋ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔȈȝ, Ȋ ȟȈșȚȕȖșȚȐ Ȋ șȐșȚȍȔȍ ȔȍȎȌțȕȈȘȖȌȕȣȝ ȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȑ, ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ șȜȍȘȍ ȌȈȓȍȍ ȉțȌȍȚ țȌȍȓȍȕȖ șȖȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊțȦȡȍȍ ȊȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ, țȟȐȚȣȊȈȧ ȍȍ ȊȈȎȕȖșȚȤ. ǵȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȤ ȖȚȕȖșȐȚșȧ Ȓ ȚȍȔ ȚȍȘȔȐȕȈȔ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȧȦȚșȧ Ȍȓȧ ȖȗȐșȈȕȐȧ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȣȝ ȧȊȓȍȕȐȑ, Ȋ ȚȖȔ ȟȐșȓȍ ȖȚȓȐȟȈȦȡȐȝșȧ ȗȖ ȔȈșȠȚȈȉț. ǵȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȤ Ȋ ǹǨǹ ȐȔȍȍȚ ȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȍ ȒȈȒ Ȓ ȞȍȓȖȔț, ȚȈȒ Ȑ Ȓ ȖȚȌȍȓȤȕȣȔ șȗȍȞȐȜȐȟȍșȒȐȔ șȊȖȑșȚȊȈȔ. ǰșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȤ șȚȈȓȒȐȊȈȍȚșȧ ș ȕȍȑ, ȖȗȐșȣȊȈȧ ȒȈȒ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȣȍ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ ȓȖȒȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȣ Ȑ ȏȈȒȖȕȖȔȍȘȕȖșȚȐ. «ǯȈ ȗȘȍȌȍȓȈȔȐ ȔȈȚȍȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȔȐȘȈ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȔȈȓȖȐȏȊȍșȚȕȣȔ ȚȖȚ ȜȈȒȚ, ȟȚȖ ȉȖȓȤȠȈȧ ȟȈșȚȤ ȕȈȠȐȝ ȔȈȚȍȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚȖȊ – ȖȚ ȈȘȐȜȔȍȚȐȒȐ, ȟȍȘȍȏ ȌȐȜȜȍȘȍȕȞȐȈȓȤȕȖȍ ȐșȟȐșȓȍȕȐȍ ȌȖ ȈȓȋȍȉȘȈȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȚȖȗȖȓȖȋȐȐ – ȐșȝȖȌȐȚ Ȑȏ ȗȘȍȌȗȖȓȖȎȍȕȐȧ Ȗ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȐ. <…> Ǿȍȓȣȍ ȘȈȏȌȍȓȣ ȔȈȚȍȔȈȚȐȒȐ ȗȖșȊȧȡȍȕȣ ȗȖȐșȒț ȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȝ ȜțȕȒȞȐȑ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȊȈȓȐ ȉȣ șȖȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊțȦȡțȦ ȈȗȗȘȖȒșȐȔȈȞȐȦ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȤ ȕȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȗȘȧȔȣȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȍȕȈ. Dz șȖȎȈȓȍȕȐȦ, Ȋșȍ ȥȚȖ ȗȓȖȝȖ ȘȈȉȖȚȈȍȚ Ȋ șȓțȟȈȍ șȓȖȎȕȣȝ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔ. ǰȏțȟȍȕȐȍ ǹǨǹ ȗȘȐ ȗȖȔȖȡȐ ȌȈȕȕȣȝ ȔȍȚȖȌȖȊ ȉȖȓȤȠȍ ȕȈȗȖȔȐȕȈȦȚ ȗȖȗȣȚȒȐ ȐȋȘȈȚȤ Ȋ ȠȈȝȔȈȚȣ ȗȖșȘȍȌșȚȊȖȔ șȉȖȘȈ șȚȈȚȐșȚȐȒȐ ȌȊȐȎȍȕȐȧ ȜȐȋțȘ ȊȖ ȊȘȍȔȧ ȐȋȘȣ»2. ǪȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ, ȐȔȍȍȚ șȔȣșȓ ȖȗȍȘȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ș ȚȍȘȔȐȕȖȔ «ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȤ», ȕȍ șȚȘȍȔȧșȤ ȌȈȚȤ ȚȖȟȕȖȋȖ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȧ, ȒȈȒ ȥȚȖ ȐȔȍȓȖ ȔȍșȚȖ Ȋ ȕȈȟȈȓȍ 19 ȊȍȒȈ, ȒȖȋȌȈ țȟȍȕȖȍ șȖȖȉȡȍșȚȊȖ, ȘȈȏȘȈȉȈȚȣȊȈȧ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȐ ȥȕȍȘȋȐȐ, ȗȘȐȠȓȖ ȒȏȈȒȖȕȈȔ ȚȍȘȔȖȌȐȕȈȔȐȒȐ.

ǷȖȚȖȒȐ. ǺȘȍȚȤȐȔ șȊȖȑșȚȊȖȔ ǹǨǹ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȗȖȚȖȟȕȖșȚȤ (flow). ǴȖȎȕȖ «ȌțȔȈȚȤ Ȗ ȗȖȚȖȒȈȝ ȗȖȊȍȘȝ șȍȚȐ țȏȓȖȊ Ȑ șȖȍȌȐȕȍȕȐȑ. ǻȏȓȣ ȔȖȋțȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȏȈȊȖȌȈȔȐ, Ȉ șȖȍȌȐȕȍȕȐȧ ȚȘȈȕșȗȖȘȚȕȣȔȐ ȔȈȘȠȘțȚȈȔȐ Ȍȓȧ ȗȍȘȍȔȍȡȍȕȐȧ ȗȘȖȌțȒȞȐȐ ȔȍȎȌț ȗȘȍȌȗȘȐȧȚȐȧȔȐ. ǨȕȈȓȖȋȐȟȕȣȍ ȚȘȐȈȌȣ (țȏȍȓ, șȖȍȌȐȕȍȕȐȍ, ȘȍșțȘș) șțȡȍșȚȊțȦȚ Ȑ Ȋ ȌȘțȋȐȝ ǹǨǹ (ȕȍȘȊȕȣȍ ȒȓȍȚȒȐ, ȔȍȎșȖȍȌȐȕȍȕȐȧ ȕȍȘȊȕȣȝ ȒȓȍȚȖȒ, ȐȔȗțȓȤșȣ – Ȍȓȧ ȞȍȕȚȘȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȕȍȘȊȕȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȣ; ȊȐȌȣ, ȗȐȡȍȊȈȧ șȍȚȤ, ȉȐȖȝȐȔȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȣ – Ȍȓȧ ȥȒȖșȐșȚȍȔ; ȒȖȔȗȤȦȚȍȘȣ, ȒȈȉȍȓȐ, șȖȖȉȡȍȕȐȧ – Ȍȓȧ ǰȕȚȍȘȕȍȚȈ Ȑ Ț.Ȍ.) <…> Ǫ ǹǨǹ ȗȖȚȖȒȐ Ȋ șȍȚȧȝ ȐȏȔȍȕȧȦȚșȧ ȊȖ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ. ǩȖȓȍȍ ȚȖȋȖ, țȏȓȣ Ȑ șȖȍȌȐ-

1 Ibid, pp. 13-15.

2 Ibid, pp. 15-16.

58

ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȕȍȕȐȧ ȔȖȋțȚ ȗȖȧȊȓȧȚȤșȧ Ȑ ȐșȟȍȏȈȚȤ Ȋ ȏȈȊȐșȐȔȖșȚȐ ȖȚ ȚȖȋȖ, șțȔȍȓȐ ȓȐ ȈȋȍȕȚȣ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȘȖȊȈȚȤșȧ ȐȓȐ ȕȍȚ. ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, ȕȐ ȗȖȚȖȒȐ, ȕȐ șȍȚȤ ȕȍ ȜȐȒșȐȘȖȊȈȕȣ ȊȖ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ. ǶȕȐ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȗȈȚȚȍȘȕȈȔȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȖȚȖȉȘȈȎȈȦȚ ȗȘȖȞȍșș ȕȍȗȘȍȘȣȊȕȖȑ ȈȌȈȗȚȈȞȐȐ ȗȖȌ ȌȈȊȓȍȕȐȍȔ ȈȒȒțȔțȓȐȘțȦȡȍȋȖșȧ ȖȗȣȚȈ Ȑ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ»1.

ǰȔȍȍȚșȧ ȌȊȈ ȈȚȘȐȉțȚȈ ȗȖȚȖȒȖȊ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ «ȓȖȔȈȦȚ» ȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȑ ȈȕȈȓȐȏ. ǷȍȘȊȣȑ – ȥȚȖ ȥȜȜȍȒȚ ȔțȓȤȚȐȗȓȐȒȈȞȐȐ. ǿȚȖȉȣ ȗȘȖȐȓȓȦșȚȘȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȍȋȖ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȍ, ȔȖȎȕȖ ȗȘȐȊȍșȚȐ ȗȘȐȔȍȘ ȥȊȘȐșȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȏȈȒȖȕȖȊ ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȟȍșȒȖȑ șȜȍȘȣ, ȋȖȊȖȘȧȡȐȝ Ȗ ȚȖȔ, ȟȚȖ ȐȕȊȍșȚȐȞȐȐ Ȋ ȖȉȢȍȔȍ $N ȗȘȐȊȖȌȧȚ Ȓ șȖȏȌȈȕȐȦ m ȘȈȉȖȟȐȝ ȔȍșȚ. ǶȌȕȈȒȖ ȗȖȔȐȔȖ ȗȘȧȔȖȋȖ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȈ ȊșȍȋȌȈ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȈȍȚșȧ Ȑ ȒȖșȊȍȕȕȣȑ, ȗȘȐȊȖȌȧȡȐȑ Ȓ ȖȚȒȘȣȚȐȦ ȌȖȗȖȓȕȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȝ ȘȈȉȖȟȐȝ ȔȍșȚ, ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȖ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ, ȖȌȕȈȒȖ, ȕȍȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ ȗȘȖșȟȐȚȈȚȤ ȕȈ țȘȖȊȕȍ ȖȚȌȍȓȤȕȣȝ ȗȘȍȌȗȘȐȧȚȐȑ Ȑ ȌȈȎȍ ȖȚȘȈșȓȐ, ȕȖ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ Ȋ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ Ȋșȍȑ ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȒȐ. ǪȚȖȘȖȑ ȈȚȘȐȉțȚ ȗȖȚȖȒȖȊ, șȚȈȕȖȊȧȡȐȑșȧ ȐșȚȖȟȕȐȒȖȔ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖșȚȐ, ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȘȍȒțȘșȐȊȕȣȑ ȥȜȜȍȒȚ, ȉȓȈȋȖȌȈȘȧ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȔț «ȈȋȘȍȋȈȚȕȖȍ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ ȘȈȏȕȖȖȉȘȈȏȕȖȋȖ ȔȈșșȐȊȈ ȈȋȍȕȚȖȊ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȟȍȔ-ȚȖ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȔ, ȕȍȎȍȓȐ șțȔȔȈ ȐȕȌȐȊȐȌțȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȈȋȍȕȚȖȊ»2. ǶȉȈ ȈȚȘȐȉțȚȈ «șȒȘȣȚȣ» ȊȖ ȊȕțȚȘȍȕȕȐȝ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧȝ ǹǨǹ Ȑ șȊȖȌȧȚșȧ Ȓ ȔȐȒȘȖȥȜȜȍȒȚȈȔ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ, ȖȌȕȈȒȖ, ȟȍȘȍȏ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȣ șȈȔȖȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ Ȑ ȥȔȍȘȋȍȕȞȐȦ ȗȘȖȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȕȈ ȖȉȡȍșȐșȚȍȔȕȖȔ țȘȖȊȕȍ. ǷȘȐ ȥȚȖȔ ȒȘȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐ ȊȈȎȕȖȑ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȘȖȓȤ ȚȍȋȖȊ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ «ȗȖȟȚȐ ȊșȍȋȌȈ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȦȚ șȍȚȤ ȟȍȘȍȏ ȘȈȏȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȐȍ ȒȘȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ Ȑ ȖșȕȖȊȕȣȝ șȖȍȌȐȕȍȕȐȑ. ǺȍȋȐ ȗȘȐȖȉȘȍȚȈȦȚ ȌȈȕȕțȦ ȘȖȓȤ, ȚȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȣȍ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȣ, ȔȖȌȐȜȐȞȐȘțȦȡȐȍ ǹǨǹ, ȊȣȉȐȘȈȦȚșȧ ȟȍȘȍȏ ȚȍȋȐ, ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȊȈȦȡȐȍ țȌȈȟȕȣȍ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ Ȑ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȌȍȑșȚȊțȦȡȐȍ ȚȍȋȈȔ, ȊȍȌțȡȐȔ ȒȗȖȚȍȘȍ ȜțȕȒȞȐȑ»3.

ǸȈȏȕȖȖȉȘȈȏȐȍ. ǿȍȚȊȍȘȚȣȔ șȊȖȑșȚȊȖȔ ǹǨǹ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȘȈȏȕȖȖȉȘȈȏȐȍ șȚȘțȒȚțȘȣ Ȑ ȜțȕȒȞȐȐ ȈȋȍȕȚȖȊ. ǵȈ ȗȍȘȊȣȑ ȊȏȋȓȧȌ, ǹǨǹ ȌȖȓȎȕȈ ȥȊȖȓȦȞȐȖȕȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ Ȋ șȚȖȘȖȕț ȗȖȧȊȓȍȕȐȧ țȕȐȊȍȘșȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȈȋȍȕȚȖȊ, șȗȖșȖȉȕȣȝ ȌȖșȚȐȋȈȚȤ ȗȘȍȐȔțȡȍșȚȊȈ ȕȈ ȠȐȘȖȒȖȔ șȗȍȒȚȘȍ ȉȓȈȋȖȗȘȐȧȚȕȣȝ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȍȑ. ǶȌȕȈȒȖ Ȋ ȥȚȖȔ șȓțȟȈȍ ǹǨǹ, Ȋ ȚȖȔ ȟȐșȓȍ Ȑ ȉȓȈȋȖȌȈȘȧ ȗȘȐȕȞȐȗȈȔ «80/20» Ȑ șțȉȖȗȚȐȔȐȏȈȞȐȐ Ȗȉȡȍȑ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ șȐșȚȍȔ, ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ȒȘȈȑȕȍ ȕȍțșȚȖȑȟȐȊȖȑ ȐȓȐ șȚȘȍȔȐȚșȧ Ȓ șȚȈȋȕȈȞȐȐ (ȋȓțȉȖȒȖȔț ȘȈȊȕȖȊȍșȐȦ). ǵȈȓȐȟȐȍ ȘȈȏȕȖȖȉȘȈȏȕȣȝ ȈȋȍȕȚȖȊ ȗȖȔȖȋȈȍȚ ǹǨǹ șȖȝȘȈȕȐȚȤ țșȚȖȑȟȐȊȖșȚȤ Ȑ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȘȖȊȈȚȤșȧ Ȓ ȠȐȘȖȒȖȔț ȌȐȈȗȈȏȖȕț ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ ȊȕȍȠȕȍȑ Ȑ ȊȕțȚȘȍȕȕȍȑ șȘȍȌȣ.

ǪȕțȚȘȍȕȕȐȍ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ. ǪȚȖȘȣȔ ȔȍȝȈȕȐȏȔȖȔ ǹǨǹ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȊȕțȚȘȍȕȕȐȍ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ, ȕȈ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȊȣșȚȘȈȐȊȈȍȚșȧ ȗȘȖȍȞȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ ǹǨǹ. «ǨȋȍȕȚ ȌȖȓȎȍȕ ȊȣȉȘȈȚȤ ȗȈȚȚȍȘȕȣ Ȋ ȗȖȚȖȒȍ ȊȝȖȌȕȣȝ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ Ȑ ȏȈȚȍȔ ȒȖȕȊȍȘȚȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ Ȑȝ Ȋ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ Ȋ șȊȖȍȑ ȊȕțȚȘȍȕȕȍȑ șȚȘțȒȚțȘȍ. Ǫ ȒȖȕȍȟȕȖȔ șȟȍȚȍ

1 Ibid, p. 23.

2 Ibid, p. 26.

3 Ibid, p. 23.

59

ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

<…> ȔȖȌȍȓȤ ȌȖȓȎȕȈ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȐȚȤ ȈȋȍȕȚț ȗȘȍȌȊȐȌȍȚȤ ȗȖșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȧ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȕȈșȚțȗȧȚ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȌȈȕȕȣȑ ȗȈȚȚȍȘȕ (ȐȓȐ ȗȖȝȖȎȐȑ ȕȈ ȕȍȋȖ) ȊȕȖȊȤ ȊșȚȘȍȚȐȚșȧ»1. ǴȖȎȕȖ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚȤ Ȗ ȌȊțȝ ȚȐȗȈȝ ȊȕțȚȘȍȕȕȐȝ ȔȖȌȍȓȍȑ – ȏȈȒȘȣȚȣȝ Ȑ ȖȚȒȘȣȚȣȝ. «ǯȈȒȘȣȚȈȧ ȊȕțȚȘȍȕȕȧȧ ȔȖȌȍȓȤ ȗȘȖșȚȖ ȗȘȍȌȗȐșȣȊȈȍȚ (ȌȐȒȚțȍȚ) ȚȍȒțȡȍȍ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȍ ȕȈ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȟȍȚȒȖȋȖ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȕȐȧ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȖȋȖ ȎȍȓȈȍȔȖȋȖ ȉțȌțȡȍȋȖ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȧ. ǶȚȒȘȣȚȈȧ ȊȕțȚȘȍȕȕȧȧ ȔȖȌȍȓȤ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ ȉȈȏȐșȈ Ȍȓȧ ȚȖȟȕȖȋȖ, ȕȖ ȊȕțȚȘȍȕȕȍȋȖ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȈȓȤȚȍȘȕȈȚȐȊ – ȗȘȖȞȍșș, ȟȈșȚȖ ȕȈȏȣȊȈȍȔȣȑ ȗȘȖșȟȐȚȣȊȈȕȐȍȔ ȊȗȍȘȍȌ (lookahead). ȇȘȒȐȔ ȗȘȐȔȍȘȖȔ ȚȈȒȖȋȖ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȈ ȔȖȎȍȚ șȓțȎȐȚȤ ȔȣșȓȍȕȕȖȍ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣȝ ȗȖșȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȤȕȖșȚȍȑ ȝȖȌȖȊ Ȋ ȠȈȝȔȈȚȈȝ, ȗȘȍȎȌȍ ȟȍȔ ȌȊȐȕțȚȤ ȒȈȒțȦ-ȓȐȉȖ ȜȐȋțȘț»2.

ǹȚȘȖȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȍ ȉȓȖȒȐ. ǺȘȍȚȤȐȔ ȔȍȝȈȕȐȏȔȖȔ ǹǨǹ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ șȚȘȖȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȍ ȉȓȖȒȐ. «Ǫ ȘȍȈȓȐșȚȐȟȕȣȝ șȐȚțȈȞȐȧȝ ȊȕțȚȘȍȕȕȧȧ ȔȖȌȍȓȤ ȌȖȓȎȕȈ ȖȗȐȘȈȚȤșȧ ȕȈ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȕȣȍ ȊȣȉȖȘȒȐ ȗȖșȚȖȧȕȕȖ ȖȉȕȖȊȓȧȦȡȍȑșȧ șȘȍȌȣ. DzȘȖȔȍ ȚȖȋȖ, ȔȖȌȍȓȤ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȗȖȓȍȏȕȖȑ, ȍșȓȐ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘțȍȔȈȧ șȐȚțȈȞȐȧ ȗȖȊȚȖȘȧȍȚșȧ ȚȍȔ ȐȓȐ ȐȕȣȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ. DzȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ ȔȖȎȕȖ ȘȍȠȐȚȤ ȌȈȕȕȣȑ ȗȈȘȈȌȖȒș? ǿȚȖȉȣ ȖȚȊȍȚȐȚȤ ȕȈ ȥȚȖȚ ȊȖȗȘȖș, ȘȈșșȔȖȚȘȐȔ ȖȉȡȍȗȘȐȏȕȈȕȕțȦ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȟȍșȒțȦ șȗȖșȖȉȕȖșȚȤ ȌȍȒȖȔȗȖȏȐȞȐȐ șȓȖȎȕȖȑ șȞȍȕȣ ȕȈ ȟȈșȚȐ. ǷȘȐ ȌȍȒȖȔȗȖȏȐȞȐȐ ȊȣȌȍȓȧȍȔȣȍ ȟȈșȚȐ șȓȖȎȕȖȑ șȞȍȕȣ ȓȐȠȍȕȣ ȗȘȖȐȏȊȖȓȤȕȖșȚȐ. ǶȕȐ ȔȖȋțȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȣ ȊȕȖȊȤ Ȑ ȊȕȖȊȤ Ȋ ȖȋȘȖȔȕȖȔ ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȍ ȒȖȔȉȐȕȈȞȐȑ, ȒȈȒ ȥȚȖ ȌȍȓȈȦȚ ȌȍȚȐ, ȐȋȘȈȧ ȒțȉȐȒȈȔȐ. ǶȟȍȊȐȌȕȖ, ȟȚȖ Ȕȣ ȘȈȏȉȐȘȈȍȔ șȓȖȎȕțȦ șȞȍȕț, ȖșțȡȍșȚȊȓȧȧ ȗȖȐșȒ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȖȊ, țȎȍ ȗȘȖȚȍșȚȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȣȝ ȕȈ ȗȖȊȚȖȘȕȖȍ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȟȍȘȍȏ ȍșȚȍșȚȊȍȕȕțȦ șȍȓȍȒȞȐȦ Ȑ ȖȉțȟȍȕȐȍ. <…> DzțȌȈ ȉȣ Ȕȣ ȕȐ ȗȖșȔȖȚȘȍȓȐ, șȚȘȖȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȍ ȉȓȖȒȐ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȊȈȦȚ ȊȕȍșȍȕȐȍ șȐșȚȍȔȕȖșȚȐ Ȋ șȓȖȎȕȣȑ ȔȐȘ. ǴȖȎȕȖ ȊșȗȖȔȕȐȚȤ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȕȖȚȕȖȑ ȏȈȗȐșȐ Ȍȓȧ ȗȍȘȍȌȈȟȐ ȉȍșȒȖȕȍȟȕȖȋȖ ȟȐșȓȈ ȔțȏȣȒȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȔȍȓȖȌȐȑ ȐȓȐ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȕȣȑ ȘȧȌ ȔȖȘȜȖȓȖȋȐȐ ȌȓȧȖȗȐșȈȕȐȧ ȖȋȘȖȔȕȖȋȖșȗȍȒȚȘȈ ȎȐȊȖȚȕȣȝșȚȘțȒȚțȘ»3.

ǷȘȐȔȍȘ ȜțȕȒȞȐȖȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ ǹǨǹ Ȋ ȚȍȘȔȐȕȈȝ ȉȈȏȖȊȣȝ ȈȚȘȐȉțȚȖȊ. ǿȚȖȉȣ ȗȘȖȌȍȔȖȕșȚȘȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ, ȒȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ ȘȈșșȔȖȚȘȍȕȕȣȍ ȈȚȘȐȉțȚȣ ǹǨǹ ȜțȕȒȞȐȖȕȐȘțȦȚ, ǬȎȖȕ ǽȖȓȓȈȕȌ (John Holland) ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȍȚ Ȑȝ Ȍȓȧ ȖȗȐșȈȕȐȧ ǵȤȦ-DZȖȘȒȈ Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ șȓȖȎȕȖȑ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȣ. «ǨȋȍȕȚȣ, ȜȖȘȔȐȘțȍȔȣȍ ȈȋȘȍȋȈȚȕȖșȚȤȦ, ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘȕȣȔ șȊȖȑșȚȊȖȔ, ȚȐȗȐȟȕȣȔ ȗȘȐȔȍȘȖȔ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȋȖ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȜȐȘȔȣ, ȘȈșȗȖȓȖȎȍȕȕȣȍ ȖȚ ǹȐȚȐȉȈȕȒȈ Ȑ ǵȤȦ-ȑȖȘȒșȒȖȑ ȜȖȕȌȖȊȖȑ ȉȐȘȎȐ ȌȖ țȋȓȖȊȖȋȖ ȔȈȋȈȏȐȕȟȐȒȈ Ȑ ȎȍȓȚȖȋȖ ȚȈȒșȐ. ǬȈȕȕȣȍ ȈȋȍȕȚȣ, ȜȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐ, ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȦȚ ȒȈȎȌțȦ ȜȐȕȈȕșȖȊțȦ ȚȘȈȕȏȈȒȞȐȦ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȕȈ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȖȔ țȘȖȊȕȍ ȈȉșȚȘȈȒȞȐȐ șȓȖȎȕȈȧ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȊȕȈȧ șȐșȚȍȔȈ, ȒȈȒȖȊȖȑ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ǵȤȦ-DZȖȘȒ, ȝȖȘȖȠȖ ȖȗȐșȣȊȈȍȚșȧ

1 Ibid, p. 31.

2 Ibid, pp. 32-33.

3 Ibid, p. 37.

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