- •Preface
- •Contents
- •Chapter 1
- •1.1 International Financial Markets
- •Foreign Exchange
- •Covered Interest Parity
- •Uncovered Interest Parity
- •Futures Contracts
- •1.2 National Accounting Relations
- •National Income Accounting
- •The Balance of Payments
- •1.3 The Central Bank’s Balance Sheet
- •Chapter 2
- •2.1 Unrestricted Vector Autoregressions
- •Lag-Length Determination
- •Granger Causality, Econometric Exogeniety and Causal
- •Priority
- •The Vector Moving-Average Representation
- •Impulse Response Analysis
- •Forecast-Error Variance Decomposition
- •Potential Pitfalls of Unrestricted VARs
- •2.2 Generalized Method of Moments
- •2.3 Simulated Method of Moments
- •2.4 Unit Roots
- •The Levin—Lin Test
- •The Im, Pesaran and Shin Test
- •The Maddala and Wu Test
- •Potential Pitfalls of Panel Unit-Root Tests
- •2.6 Cointegration
- •The Vector Error-Correction Representation
- •2.7 Filtering
- •The Spectral Representation of a Time Series
- •Linear Filters
- •The Hodrick—Prescott Filter
- •Chapter 3
- •The Monetary Model
- •Cassel’s Approach
- •The Commodity-Arbitrage Approach
- •3.5 Testing Monetary Model Predictions
- •MacDonald and Taylor’s Test
- •Problems
- •Chapter 4
- •The Lucas Model
- •4.1 The Barter Economy
- •4.2 The One-Money Monetary Economy
- •4.4 Introduction to the Calibration Method
- •4.5 Calibrating the Lucas Model
- •Appendix—Markov Chains
- •Problems
- •Chapter 5
- •Measurement
- •5.2 Calibrating a Two-Country Model
- •Measurement
- •The Two-Country Model
- •Simulating the Two-Country Model
- •Chapter 6
- •6.1 Deviations From UIP
- •Hansen and Hodrick’s Tests of UIP
- •Fama Decomposition Regressions
- •Estimating pt
- •6.2 Rational Risk Premia
- •6.3 Testing Euler Equations
- •Volatility Bounds
- •6.4 Apparent Violations of Rationality
- •6.5 The ‘Peso Problem’
- •Lewis’s ‘Peso-Problem’ with Bayesian Learning
- •6.6 Noise-Traders
- •Problems
- •Chapter 7
- •The Real Exchange Rate
- •7.1 Some Preliminary Issues
- •7.2 Deviations from the Law-Of-One Price
- •The Balassa—Samuelson Model
- •Size Distortion in Unit-Root Tests
- •Problems
- •Chapter 8
- •The Mundell-Fleming Model
- •Steady-State Equilibrium
- •Exchange rate dynamics
- •8.3 A Stochastic Mundell—Fleming Model
- •8.4 VAR analysis of Mundell—Fleming
- •The Eichenbaum and Evans VAR
- •Clarida-Gali Structural VAR
- •Appendix: Solving the Dornbusch Model
- •Problems
- •Chapter 9
- •9.1 The Redux Model
- •9.2 Pricing to Market
- •Full Pricing-To-Market
- •Problems
- •Chapter 10
- •Target-Zone Models
- •10.1 Fundamentals of Stochastic Calculus
- •Ito’s Lemma
- •10.3 InÞnitesimal Marginal Intervention
- •Estimating and Testing the Krugman Model
- •10.4 Discrete Intervention
- •10.5 Eventual Collapse
- •Chapter 11
- •Balance of Payments Crises
- •Flood—Garber Deterministic Crises
- •11.2 A Second Generation Model
- •Obstfeld’s Multiple Devaluation Threshold Model
- •Bibliography
- •Author Index
- •Subject Index
304CHAPTER 9. THE NEW INTERNATIONAL MACROECONOMICS
Problems
1. Solve for e ect on the money component of foreign welfare following a permanent home money shock in the Redux model.
(a) Begin by showing that
∆Ut 3 = −γ µ P0 |
¶ |
− |
·Pˆt |
+ |
|
|
1 −β β Pˆ ¸ |
|||||
|
|
|
|
M |
1 |
² |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Next, show that Pˆt = −nSˆt and |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
|
Pˆ = |
|
rn(θ2 − 1) |
|
Sˆt. |
|
|||||
|
|
²[r(1 + θ) + 2θ] |
|
|||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
Finally, show that |
|
|
|
|
|
− # µ P0 ¶ |
|
|||||
t |
" |
²[r(1 + θ) + 2θ] |
t |
|||||||||
∆U |
3 = |
−(θ2 |
− 1) |
|
1 |
|
|
M |
1−² nγSˆ |
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
This component of foreign welfare evidently declines following the permanent Mt shock. Is it reasonable to think that it will o set the increase in foreign utility from the consumption and leisure components?
2.Consider the Redux model. Fix Mt = Mt = M0 for all t. Begin in the ‘0’ equilibrium.
(a)Consider a permanent increase in home government spending, Gt = G > G0 = 0. at time t. Show that the shock leads to a home depreciation of
ˆ |
(1 + θ)(1 + r) |
St = r(θ2 − 1) + ²[r(1 + θ) + 2θ]g,ˆ
and an e ect on the current account of,
ˆb = |
(1 − n)[²(1 − θ) + θ2 − 1] |
gˆ. |
|
²[r(1 + θ) + 2θ + r(θ2 − 1)] |
|||
|
|
ˆ
What is the likely e ect on b?
9.2. PRICING TO MARKET |
305 |
(b)Consider a temporary home government spending shock in which Gs = G0 = 0 for s ≥ t + 1, and Gt > 0. Show that the e ect on the depreciation and current account are,
ˆ |
(1 + θ)r |
|
||
St = |
²[r(1 + θ) + 2θ + r(θ2 − 1)] |
gˆt, |
||
ˆb = |
|
−²(1 − n)2θ(1 + r) |
gˆt. |
|
r²[r(1 + θ) + 2θ + r(θ2 − 1)] |
||||
|
|
3. Consider the pricing-to-market model. Show that a permanent increase in home government spending leads to a short-run depreciation of the home currency and a balance of trade deÞcit for the home country.
306CHAPTER 9. THE NEW INTERNATIONAL MACROECONOMICS