15.8. Rendering

15.8.1. Render the text

Конъюнктурные исследования

Предмет экономического анализа — совокупность взаимоотношений на стадии обмена.

Обычно выделяют два объекта конъюнктурных исследований — мировое хозяйство и

товарный рынок. Им соответствуют и два направления анализа — общехозяйственная конъюнктура

и конъюнктура товарных рынков. При этом рынок в качестве объекта исследований

рассматривается как подсистема по отношению к хозяйству.

Для экономистов-практиков наибольший интерес представляет изучение конкретного

рынка: нефти, металлов, драгоценностей, сельхозпродуктов, строительной и автомобильной

техники и т. д. Конечно, конъюнктура на рынке как сфера товарного обращения тесно

связана с общеэкономической ситуацией, а в ряде случаев и определяется ею.

На состояние товарного рынка действуют не только объективные факторы спроса и

предложения, но и субъективные, проявляющиеся в силу субъективных, случайных или

спекулятивных (неэквивалентных) сделок купли-продажи. Такие факторы, влияющие

на конъюнктуру рынка, как правило, в тактических интересах той или иной группы игроков

рынка наиболее трудно прогнозируемы, но продолжительность их воздействия

ограничена.

Неотъемлемая часть рыночного хозяйства — конкуренция. Она порождает мощные

мотивационные факторы как экономического, социального, так и политического характера

воздействия на рыночную конъюнктуру. Примеров конкурентной борьбы на микро-

и макроуровнях великое множество (между предприятиями, фирмами, корпорациями,

странами и регионами): за добычу, переработку и транспортировку ресурсов, получение и

вложение инвестиций, производство товаров промышленного, хозяйственного и сельхозназначения,

сельхозпродукции, ее сбыт на соответствующих рынках и т. д.

Многочисленные ценовые и ценообразуюшие факторы, влияющие на стоимость товаров

и услуг, напрямую или опосредованно воздействуют на конъюнктуру товарного рынка.

Рынок (в широком значении) — необходимый признак свободного общества, когда

предприниматели, ориентируясь на спрос покупателей, сами решают, где, в каком количестве

и какие товары произвести. Естественно, технология, уровень научно-техническо-

го состояния производства, квалификация кадров — все это сказывается на качестве, объемах

и стоимости выпускаемых товаров. Важное место в экономических исследованиях

отводится изучению и краткосрочному прогнозированию рыночной стоимости, конкурентоспособности

и объема выпуска товаров, динамики изменения производства на мировом

рынке и в основных странах-производителях. Большинство фирм и корпораций

при создании новых образцов и видов продукции проводят компьютерные исследования

математических моделей, полученных на основе анализа многочисленных экономических

факторов (ценообразования, экспорта, сбыта внутри страны и т. д.).

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15.8.2. Commentary and Notes to Text 15.8.1

1. игроки рынка — market speculators (gamblers)

2. трудно прогнозировать — to be hard to forecast

3. ценообразующие факторы — price forming factors

4. опосредованно — indirectly

5. признак свободного общества — feature of a free society

6. компьютерные исследования — computer researches

15.9. Oral Practice. Round Table

Business Talk

In our panel discussion let us dwell on the following questions:

1. What factors would you take into account when making the market situation research (examination,

analysis) of the oil price in the world market? Enumerate and define them.

2. Does the level of competition affect the market situation in Russia, e.g., the imports of secondhand

cars? Explain in a few sentences how it happens.

a) Will levied duties (взимаемые пошлины) on imports decrease sales of new Russian cars?

b) Will the price of Russian cars increase? Will their quality show any improvement?

15.10. Written Practice

Write an essay of about 300—350 words on the unit.

Unit 16. The Cyclic Nature of Economic

Development and the Impact

of Business Cycles on the Market

Situation

16.1. Preview Basic notions

In this unit we will concentrate on the issues cycl of the cycliec

nature of economic development. phase

We are going to consider: fluctuations

•medium-term cycles of business activity, i n c l u d i n g t h ceris isimpact

of individual cycles on the p r o d u c t i o n o f v a r i o u bs ogoomds;esce rsesedrp i(snoi)no

•business cycles of very long duration named after N. K o n ddercalitnieeff;is rsaenpxe (i)no

•business cycle indicators. revival, recovery

rough t peak

16.2. Warm-up

Before you start reading the unit think and try to answer the following questions:

1. What are economists’ definitions of the business cycle? What phases does it consist of?

2. What do we know about noteworthy economic crises?

3. Are all fluctuations in business activity explained in terms of business cycles?

4. What do we know about the theory of long waves named after N. Kondratieff?

5. What are the forecasts of the world economy development?

16.3. Rapid Reading (skimming, scanning, reading for general understanding

of the basic Text 16.4)

Work in pairs or small groups.

1. Quickly skim the text to find the years of the crises of world-wide impact in the 20th century:

Define them.

2. Find and read the note for Figure 16.1 on the business cycle to your partner.

3. Find the sentence in the text about the trends of medium-term cycles of business activity. What

are your ideas about it?

4. Scan the text to find the reasons for the cyclic nature of economic development.

16.4. Basic Text. The Cycles of Economic Development

In an ideal economy, real GDP would expand over time at a brisk, steady pace. Additionally, the

price level, as measured by the GDP deflator or the consumer price index, would remain constant

or only slowly rise. The result would be neither significant unemployment nor inflation. But experience

dramatizes that full employment and a stable price level cannot be taken for granted.

In fact, the economy develops by business cycles, i.e., periodic fluctuations in output, employment,

and price levels which are characteristic of any capitalist economic system; the long-term

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trend of economic growth is interrupted and complicated by both unemployment and inflation,

although characterized by common phases — peak, recession, trough, recovery — business cycles

vary greatly in duration and intensity.

The crises of 1929-1938, 1948-1949, 1957-1958, 1969-1970, 1974-1975, 1980-1982, 1990—

1992 were of world-wide importance. The crisis of the 1930s undermined the economic activity of

the US by the whole of ten years and not without reason was called “The Great Depression.”

Beginning with 2001, the decline in business activity (business recession) has been occurring in the

majority of national economies of developed countries.

a) The phases of the cycle of economic development

Generally speaking, the term business cycle refers to the recurrent ups and downs in the level of

economic activity which extend over a period of several years. Individual business cycles vary substantially

in duration and intensity. Yet all embody common phases which are variously labeled by

different economists.

Trough

Time

Figure 16.1. The business cycle

Economists distinguish between four phases of the business cycle and recognize that the duration and

strength of each phase is highly variable. A recession, for example, need not always entail serious and prolonged

unemployment. Nor need a cyclical peak always entail full employment.

We begin with a cyclical peak where the economy is at full employment and the national output

is also at, or very close to, capacity. The price level is likely to be rising during this cyclical phase,

the expansion of business activity is short-circuited. In the ensuing recession output and employment

both decline, but prices in the economy tend to be relatively inflexible in a downward direction.

The price level is likely to fall only if the recession is severe and prolonged — that is, if a

“depression” occurs.

The trough of the recession or depression is where output and employment “bottom out” at

their lowest levels.

Finally, in the recovery phase the economy’s levels of output and employment expand toward

full employment. As recovery intensifies, the price level may begin to rise prior to the realization of

full employment and capacity production.

Specific business cycles vary greatly in duration and intensity. Indeed, some economists prefer

to talk of business fluctuations, rather than cycles, because cycles imply regularity while fluctuations

do not.

b) The reasons for the cyclic nature of economic development

Historically, economists have suggested a variety of theories to explain fluctuations in business

activity. Wars, for example, can be economically very disruptive. Still other economists view the

cycle as a purely monetary phenomenon. When government create(s) too much money, an inflationary

boom is generated; a relative paucity of money will precipitate a declining output and

unemployment. Other economists have explained the business cycle in terms of political and random

events.

Still most economists believe that the immediate determinant of the levels of national output

aid employment is the level of total or aggregate expenditures. Crudely stated, if total spending is

low, many businesses will not find it profitable to produce a large volume of goods and services.

Hence, output, employment, and the level of incomes will all be low. Certainly, it must not be

concluded that all changes in.business activity are due to the business cycle.

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There are seasonal variations in business activity. It is also subject to a secular trend. The secular

trend of an economy is its expansion or contraction over a long period of years, for example. 25.