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С.Д. КОМАРОВСКАЯ world economy.docx
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1. Without reference to the process — безотносительно к процессу

2. adjustment... is achieved — достигается ... регулирование (корректирование)

3. snapshot — снимок

4. ... aims to assess the characteristics ... — ... ставит целью определить характеристики...

5. slope — наклон

6. what is missing from such analysis ... — то, что отсутствует в этом анализе ...

7. to deviate from ... — отклоняться от ...

8. an auctioneer — аукционист

9. price-takers — участники рынка (продавцы, покупатели), принимающие цену,

соглашающиеся с ценой

10. price-setters — участники рынка, устанавливающие цену

11. tatonnement — фр. достижение равенства между спросом и предложением на рынке за

очень короткий срок

17.7.1.4. Read the text “Forecast of Rational Expectations Theory,” translate it and explain the

meaning of biased forecasts and random events.

The theory of rational expectations is the assumption that the behaviour of economic agents is based

on an understanding of the economy, and a forecast of future events, that are not systematically falsified

by actual economic events. Nobody can predict the future with perfect foresight because unforeseen,

random happenings are bound to occur. However, someone with rational expectations will construct

their expectations so that on average they are correct; that is, they will be wrong only because of random,

non-systematic errors. The disadvantage of other ways in which individuals may be assumed to

predict the future is that they allow them to make systematic errors. Adaptive expectations, for example,

postulate that individuals predict next year’s price inflation on the basis of last year’s, and the rate of

17.7.1.3. Read and translate the text “Comparative Static Equilibrium Analysis.”

Comparative Static Equilibrium Analysis

Forecast o f Rational Expectations Theory

249

change up to last year. At a time of increasing inflation, their expectation will perpetually lag behind the

actual inflation rate — but despite this, under the hypothesis of adaptive expectations, everybody carries

on using this predictive method although it produces biased forecasts.

The theory of rational expectations has stimulated debate in economics because it has controversial

Implications. The first is that it appears to demolish any case for government policy aimed at stimulating

demand in the economy: if the government expands the money supply by 5 per cent, everybody will

believe that prices will rise as a consequence. This will make them add 5 per cent to their wage demands

or prices and a 5 per cent price inflation occurs without there being any positive effect on output or

employment. The second is that markets behave efficiently. The price of the shares of a company reflects

the profits the company is expected to make. If expectations are rational, the price at any point in

time is based on expectations which have taken into consideration all possible information about the

company. This has two consequences. The first consequence is that if some “news” arrives that indicates

the company’s fortunes are likely to change, that information will cause the price to change immediately.

Secondly, however, as the “news” that arrives can reflect only random, not systematic, events, the

price of the company’s shares must follow a random path (random walk).

The interesting implications of rational expectations should not necessarily make them appear

a plausible description of men’s behaviour. Nevertheless, like perfect competition in microeconomics,

rational expectations provide a model of an extreme form of human behaviour that provides

a benchmark against which the behaviour of people in the real world can be judged.

Commentary and Notes to Text 17.7.1.4