Vocabulary:

in rude health	в очень хорошем состоянии
to liberalise trade	либерализировать торговлю; устранить ограничения
North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)	Североамериканское соглашение о свободной торговле (НАФТА)
Mercosur	таможенный союз 4-х южноамериканских стран (Меркосур)
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)	Азиатскотихоокеанское экономическое сотрудничество
free traders	сторонники свободной торговли
visionary politics	политика с перспективным видением, стратегическое видение
in the unwieldy WTO	в рамках громоздкой структуры ВТО
bloated farming industry	зд. перепроизводство сельскохозяйственной продукции при мощном государственном субсидировании
«rules of origin»	правила происхождения (товара)
selective opening	избирательная либерализация
outstanding negotiations	зд. незавершенные переговоры
to raise the hurdle	повысить планку, стандарт, ужесточить правила
multilateral agreements	многосторонние соглашения
ASEAN Association of South East Asia nations	Ассоциация Государств Юго-Восточной Азии

TRANSLATION NOTES:

By the sorry standards of much of this century… - На фоне отнюдь не благоприятных показателей торговли на протяжении большей части столетия…

или: Если сравнивать…

Put this way, it sounds like something to applaud. - Если посмотреть лишь с этой точки зрения (если ограничиться только этим), то все хорошо.

Вместо использования причастного оборота рекомендуется данный вариант перевода. (См. часть Ш, раздел 3, § 6)

One excuse for their not doing so… - Одна из причин (одно из объяснений), почему они этого не делают, состоит в том, что… (См. часть Ш, раздел 3, § 5)

Text E

1. Read and translate the text.

2. Make an annotation on the text. Nothing’s free in this world

What to expect from the Central American Free Trade Agreement

The intellectual case for free trade is a clear one. In economists’ ideal models, removing trade barriers between countries leads to greater prosperity. Things are trickier in the real world.

CAFTA, the Central American Free Trade Agreement, was finally ratified by America’s Congress after a long political battle. Of the six other signatories to the treaty, El Salvador, Honduras and Guatemala have already ratified it. Despite remaining political obstacles, Costa Rica, Nicaragua and the Dominican Republic seem set to do so too. But, as in the United States, the reasons for ratification – and its main effects – are likely to be more political than economic.

As the World Bank, a CAFTA partisan, suggested in its report, forecasting the economic effects of the treaty is more art than science. Those predisposed towards free trade see economic benefits looming, while protectionists see disaster for the region’s poor. But CAFTA is unlikely to provoke much sudden change. More than 80% of the region’s exports to the United States are already free of duty as a result of regional and bilateral agreements going back to the 1980s, And, for farm products most vulnerable to competitions, such as rice and chicken legs, CAFTA will scale tariffs only gradually to zero over the next 20 years.

Paradoxically, the biggest impact of this trade treaty will probably not be on trade as such, but on investment, says Sydney Weintraub of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, an American think-tank. The upswing is likely to come not only from American investors, but also from those in Europe and Asia who regard the treaty as sign of stability. If increases analogous to those that occurred in Mexico in the wake of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) do take place, it would provide a huge economic boost for a region whose infrastructure remain startlingly basic. Nicaragua, the poorest of CAFTA’s signatories, still have no paved roads reaching its Atlantic coast.

Even in the worst case, when the impact on both trade and investment is negligible, that very stability would be valuable, argues Mario Martinez-Piva, a UN economist in Mexico City. Indeed, Jaime Rivera of Bladex, a regional bank, believes that CAFTA will make the region’s business more competitive and more open to scrutiny. This, he predicts, will lead to a virtuous circle that will force governments too to be more open because of pressure from business.

Another likely benefit is an increase in intra-regional trade. Apart from Costa Rica, the economies in the region are heavily dependant on the United States market. Exports to the United States account in all cases for at least half of total trade and in the case of Dominican Republic, for as much as 84% of export earnings. Roberto Artavia Loria of INCAE, the region’s leading business school, says CAFTA will eliminate many of the current non-tariff barriers to intra-regional trade (such as politically motivated health regulations), thereby growth in such commodities as oils and dairy products. The increased competitive pressure are also likely to oblige the region’s economies to diversify away from commodities - in which it anyway faces increasingly fierce competition from larger economies like China and Brazil – and into value-added sectors. “You can’t trade rice for Toyotas”, Mr.Artavia asserts.

The remaining political hurdles seem manageable. Although opinions are divided in Central America, the sentiment against free-trade policies is not nearly as strong as anti-globalisation activists would have it.

Panama is likely to follow its neighbours with a bilateral trade pact with the United States. The Andean countries seem eager to follow suit. A Free Trade Area of the Americas, which not long ago seemed dead in the water, is now starting to look like a distinct possibility.