Vocabulary:
hawkish - зд. жесткий
target range for inflation - установленный правительством целевой ориентир роста уровня инфляции
target (range) - целевой ориентир роста денежной массы в обращении, установленный властями
TRANSLATION NOTES:
Canadian economy appears to be slowing, and inflation seems well-contained – Похоже, что экономический рост Канады замедляется, а инфляция находится под жестким контролем.
В предложениях, содержащих конструкцию «именительный падеж с инфинитивом», глаголы-сказуемые to seem, to appear переводятся как по-видимому. Сравните:
The market seems to be hesitant. – На рынке, по-видимому, наблюдается выжидательное настроение.
(См. часть Ш, раздел 3, § 4)
VOCABULARY CHECK
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Темпы экономического роста, безработица, инфляция и платежный баланс – ключевые показатели развития экономики.
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Инфляция – это постоянный рост цен на товары и услуги.
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По словам министра, ожидается, что в августе инфляция составит либо 0%, либо будет зафиксирована дефляция.
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В 1970-х годах в промышленно развитых странах мира имела место стагфляция, сопровождаемая стагнацией производства и высоким уровнем безработицы.
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Потребительская инфляция – это инфляция, измеряемая на основании индекса потребительских цен.
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Базовая инфляция не включает цены, подверженные резким сезонным колебаниям.
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Во втором квартале текущего года дефицит текущего платежного баланса США составил 166, 2 миллиарда долларов, сообщается на сайте британского делового издания Financial Times.
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Аналитики отмечают, что размер дефицита (платежного баланса) приближается в настоящее время к 6 процентам ВВП, а столь значительная диспропорция должна неизбежно привести, по их мнению, к обесцениванию доллара.
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Активное сальдо торгового баланса - превышение товарного экспорта страны над ее товарным импортом.
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Положительное сальдо торгового баланса РФ за июнь 2006г. составило 11 млрд 822 млн долл. против 9 млрд 312 млн долл. годом ранее (рост на 26,9%).
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Министерство финансов РФ прогнозирует снижение базовой инфляции с 7,1% в 2007 году до 4,8% в 2009 году. Такой прогноз содержится в материалах министерства по проекту федерального бюджета на 2007 год. Общая инфляция за это время снизится с 8% до 5,5%. В 2008году уровень базовой инфляции прогнозируется в размере 5,2%, общей - 6%.
Section 2 boom and bust lead-in
The business cycle or economic cycle refers to the ups and downs seen somewhat simultaneously in most parts of an economy. The cycle involves shifts over time between periods of relatively rapid growth of output (recovery and prosperity), alternating with periods of relative stagnation or decline (contraction or recession). These fluctuations are often measured using the real gross domestic product.
The stages of the business cycle are growth (expansion), peak, recession (contraction), trough and recovery. At one time, business cycles were thought to be extremely regular, with predictable durations. But today business cycles are widely known to be irregular - varying in frequency, magnitude and duration. In an economy where the pattern is extreme, it is referred to as the boom-bust cycle.
An economic boom with booming economic growth (increasing demand and production), inevitably peaks. At its peak, the economy is running at full steam. Employment is at or near maximum levels; GDP output is at its upper limit; and income levels are increasing. In this period, prices tend to increase due to inflation; however, most businesses and investors are having an enjoyable and prosperous time.
After experiencing a great deal of growth and success, income and employment begin to decline. As our wages and the prices of goods in the economy are inflexible to change, they will most likely remain near the same level as that found in the peak period unless the recession is prolonged. The result of these factors is negative growth in the economy.
Following the peak there is a slowdown, turndown, downturn, or downswing (periods of slower or negative growth), when the economy slows down, turns down, or weakens.
A slowdown in demand, the amount of goods and services that are bought, may be the first sign of a recession: a period with little growth, no growth, or even negative growth. A severe recession is a slump.
When a recession is extremely severe and prolonged, commentators talk about economic collapse and depression. The Depression, with a capital D, usually refers to the years following the Wall Street crash of 1929. Also sometimes referred to as a depression, trough is the section of the business cycle when output and employment bottom out and remain in waiting for the next phase of the cycle to begin. Or there may be a double-dip recession. The recession reaches its trough and bottoms out: the economy starts to improve, but then turns down again into a second trough.
During a recession people impatiently look for signs of a recovery or an upturn: signs that the economy is recovering, strengthening, picking up, or turning up and that things are getting better. Commentators then talk about a pick-up, turn-up, upturn, or upswing in the economy.
In a recovery the economy is growing once again and moving away from the bottoms experienced at the trough. Employment, production, and income all undergo a period of growth, and, overall, the economic climate is good.
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When a recession is over, and there is steady growth, the economy is said to take off.
Soft landing is a term describing a growth rate high enough to keep the economy out of recession, but also slow enough to prevent high inflation. When the economy is growing at strong rate, the central banks try to engineer a soft landing by raising interest rates enough to slow the economy down without putting it into recession.
When the economy goes directly from a period of expansion to a recession as the government attempts to slow down inflation a term hard landing is used. This might happen if a government or monetary authorities are more restrictive in their fiscal or monetary policy than what is appropriate for the economy. It is opposite of soft landing.